Also, due to the fact that the "everyone seers the vote winner" plan fails if we can't distinguish who got which results (which I also forgot), I would be open to voting for someone other than Bliss.
Also, due to the fact that the "everyone seers the vote winner" plan fails if we can't distinguish who got which results (which I also forgot), I would be open to voting for someone other than Bliss.
Agreed.
I do think we want to frown heavily upon those who do not follow The Plan. At least without voicing strong opposition to it before hand.
Also, due to the fact that the "everyone seers the vote winner" plan fails if we can't distinguish who got which results (which I also forgot), I would be open to voting for someone other than Bliss.
Agreed.
I do think we want to frown heavily upon those who do not follow The Plan. At least without voicing strong opposition to it before hand.
Unfortunately I mislike where this goes next.
Since this is less of a Phalla and more of a logical exercise, a certain amount of leaning on the nonconformists is going to be required if we want to have any chance.
FunkyWaltDogg on
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thorgotthere is special providencein the fall of a sparrowRegistered Userregular
Also, due to the fact that the "everyone seers the vote winner" plan fails if we can't distinguish who got which results (which I also forgot), I would be open to voting for someone other than Bliss.
Agreed.
I do think we want to frown heavily upon those who do not follow The Plan. At least without voicing strong opposition to it before hand.
Unfortunately I mislike where this goes next.
Since this is less of a Phalla and more of a logical exercise, a certain amount of leaning on the nonconformists is going to be required if we want to have any chance.
Except the monsters can present logic which helps them, and then say that people who don't conform to it are obviously bad, because this is a completely logical game.
Oh, I had one of the dead guys on that list and found out FWD was the one left, so I changed his name with the dead guy.
After examining your list a while after calling you out on it, I speculated the same; I wanted to wait for your reply before confirming. :^:
For future reference: There is nothing suspicious about Aldo's list.
Of course, enough people have gone on the list I posted that it's no big deal at this point.
EDIT - PAGE TOP - Re-posting for prominence/exposure/TOTP: [size=+2]HERE IS YOUR SEER TARGET FOR TONIGHT[/size]
(the order for this list is based solely on the OP order)
[size=+1]
Seer'd Self as Evil <---> Seer'd Self as Good
Hakkekage <---> B:L
Fembot <---> DevoutlyApathetic
Zot <---> PRËTËNTIÖüS
thorgot <---> Squashua
Ardor <---> Aldo
TehSpectre <---> MrBallBaggins
FunkyWaltDogg <---> Bliss 101 (did not seer self)[/size]
OPTIONALLY, FWD can seer whomever (obviously, do not name your target beforehand) if Bliss101 ends up being the top vote recipient.
Oh, I had one of the dead guys on that list and found out FWD was the one left, so I changed his name with the dead guy.
After examining your list a while after calling you out on it, I speculated the same; I wanted to wait for your reply before confirming. :^:
For future reference: There is nothing suspicious about Aldo's list.
Of course, enough people have gone on the list I posted that it's no big deal at this point.
EDIT - PAGE TOP - Re-posting for prominence/exposure/TOTP: [size=+2]HERE IS YOUR SEER TARGET FOR TONIGHT[/size]
(the order for this list is based solely on the OP order)
[size=+1]
Seer'd Self as Evil <---> Seer'd Self as Good
Hakkekage <---> B:L
Fembot <---> DevoutlyApathetic
Zot <---> PRËTËNTIÖüS
thorgot <---> Squashua
Ardor <---> Aldo
TehSpectre <---> MrBallBaggins
FunkyWaltDogg <---> Bliss 101 (did not seer self)[/size]
OPTIONALLY, FWD can seer whomever (obviously, do not name your target beforehand) if Bliss101 ends up being the top vote recipient.
The list checks out. Thanks for the good work, Squash. 8-)
FWD should probably keep his seering on Bliss, as to not confuse our results any further.
I'm trying to work the logic without enough information.
Here is my map:
Hakkekage .......... * * P I B
Fembot ............. * * P I B
Zot ................ * * P I B
B:L ................ T N * * B
DevoutlyApathetic .. T N * * B Grundlterror ....... T N P I *
Bliss 101 .......... * * P I B
thorgot ............ * * P I B
PRËTËNTIÖüS ........ T N * * B
Squashua ........... T N * * B
Aldo ............... T N * * B
MrBallbaggins ...... T N * * B
Ardor .............. * * P I B
TehSpectre ......... * * P I B
FunkyWaltDogg ...... * * P I B MrBlarney .......... T N P I *
KEY
T (3) - True Seer (Innocent - always sees correct)
N (3) - Naive (Innocent - always sees "Good")
P (3) - Paranoid (Innocent - always sees "Bad")
I (3) - Insane (Innocent - always sees opposite)
B (4) - Bad Guy (Guilty)
I'm sure this has been covered earlier, but I am full of redundancy:
Here's how it breaks down:
DAY ZERO
Step 1: Self-Remove B.
You know whether you are Innocent. Therefore you can remove B from yourself.
DAY ONE
Step 2: Assign GrundlTerror and Mr. Blarney
Both died innocent but neither had a seering; therefore we can only remove B from them.
Step 3: Assign Bliss101
Seered innocent GrundlTerror as guilty; therefore Bliss is either Bad, Paranoid or Insane.
Step 4: Clear "Good" players.
Remove I if someone seered "Good"; an Insane player would never seer themselves as "Good".
Remove P if someone seered "Good"; a Paranoid player only seers "Bad".
Step 5: Clear "Bad" players
Remove N if someone seered "Bad"; a Naive player only seers "Good".
DAY TWO
Step 6: Assign the Dead
If someone was innocent, remove B.
If someone was bad, remove all but B.
Step 7: An "Innocent" seer gets a "Good" result against a "Guilty" target
No changes. The seer is still T, N, or B, even if you were the "Guilty" (innocent) target.
If the "Guilty" target died and was proven good, no changes.
If the "Guilty" target died and was proven bad, remove T.
Step 8: An "Innocent" seer gets a "Bad" result against a "Guilty" target
The seer is not Naive, remove N. If you (innocent) are the seer, you are T.
If you were the "Guilty" target (innocent), also remove T - conclusion: seer is B.
If the "Guilty" target died and was proven good, also remove T - conclusion: seer is B.
If the "Guilty" target died and was proven bad, no additional changes.
Step 9: A "Guilty" seer gets a "Good" result against an "Innocent" target
The seer is not Paranoid, remove P. If you (innocent) are the seer, you are I.
If you were the "Innocent" target (innocent), also remove I - conclusion: seer is B.
If the "Innocent" target died and was proven good, also remove I - conclusion: seer is B.
If the "Innocent" target died and was proven bad, no additional changes.
Step 10: A "Guilty" seer gets a "Bad" result against an "Innocent" target
The seer is still P, I or B, even if you were the "Innocent" (innocent) target.
If the "Innocent" target died and was proven good, no changes.
If the "Innocent" target died and was proven bad, remove I.
Step 11: FunkyWaltDogg, a "Guilty" seer seers "Bliss101", a "Guilty" seer
If Bliss101 dies innocent
If FWD got a "Bad" result, FWD is still P, I, or B.
If FWD got a "Good" result, remove P from FWD (FWD will know he is Insane).
If Bliss101 dies guilty
If FWD got a "Bad" result, remove I from FWD (FWD will know he is Paranoid).
If FWD got a "Good" result, remove P from FWD (FWD will know he is Insane).
Conclusions
Tomorrow:
1 - You might know if you are a True Seer or a Insane Seer; we might know all their identities unless a Bad Guy takes a risk.
2 - You might know if a seer is Bad.
Edits: Added Step 11; Cleared up Good/Insane issue; Added Results if Target Dies.
Step 2: Self-Remove I.
Day One: by seering ourselves, all innocents players (except Bliss101) found out whether or not they were Insane.
This is not quite right. Players who seered good are known to all not to be Insane, while players who seered evil don't yet know whether they are Insane or Paranoid.
Step 2: Self-Remove I.
Day One: by seering ourselves, all innocents players (except Bliss101) found out whether or not they were Insane.
This is not quite right. Players who seered good are known to all not to be Insane, while players who seered evil don't yet know whether they are Insane or Paranoid.
Unless I'm reading it wrong, they BOTH attacked Mr. Blarney.
They must really hate his spreadsheets. XD Ironically Squashua is giving them a hard time as well, now.
Well, here's the fun. Now that I've done what I did, ANYONE can continue the process if I get killed tonight.
What's even better is that they can't coordinate kills. I wonder which group will target me. :-)
@ FWD
By process of elimination, none of those who seered "Good" last night are insane.
There are 6 who seered Good + 2 dead players who are Good. (originally read "There are 8 who seered Good").
3 must be Naive.
3 must be True.
Therefore the other 2 must be Bad. I'm going to adjust rule two and the checklist/table. edit I could be wrong - no changes for now until I go over it in my head.
OK. If you were insane, and you seered yourself last night, the ONLY result you could get would be "Bad".
You could not possibly get a "good" result.
Therefore anyone who seered good would definitely not have an "I" next to them.
Question
So... what would the next logical step be for voting purposes?
@FWD - I have then changed step 2 (moved to step 4) and removed "I" from all who seered "Good" last night.
For night 3?
We'll have to see the results and then maybe trust people who've been seered as good twice a little. It really depends on the results of tonight.
What we'll be looking for tonight is inconsistencies. We've roughly divided our seers into Good - Evil pairs; if both are innocent, then the Good (Naive or True) seer will see his opposite as Good, and the Evil (Paranoid or Insane) seer will see his partner as Evil. The cases where anything else happens will be the ones to examine first.
1) Bad Guys who seered "Innocent" on Day One will post a "Good" result.
2) Bad Guys who seered "Guilty" on Day One will post a "Bad" result.
3) Bad Guys who are targeting a teammate tonight will post opposite of (1)/(2).
4) Bad Guys who suspect they are targeting the opposing Bad Guy team will post opposite (1)/(2).
Chances are that (3) is not an actual situation, and no Bad Guy will follow tactic (4), even though the best Bad Guy tactic tonight will be for one to post using (1)/(2) and the other to post opposite. I think this will keep them hidden for the longest amount of time to get in the most kills.
So let's pretend all our Bad Guys are logicians and follow (1)/(2) above.
That means that we will know the identities of all the True and Insane seers tonight, and the bad guys will be hiding amongst the Naive/Paranoid seers.
So tomorrows tactic will be an equal distribution: All True/Insane seers should seer all Naive/Paranoid seers.
Who will they target for kills tonight?
Either the True/Naive seers to whittle them down (though that may give us a more trustworthy Insane group) or the Paranoid/Insane seers to even the balance.
Edit Another fun tactic would be for one Bad Guy to target the same target as their partner. It's risky, but it might be viewed as a way to sacrifice oneself to exhonerate the partner.
Is Frosteey the person we're supposed to CC our target to?
Yes.
edit: and with that, Im off to bed.
Aldo on
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HakkekageSpace Whore Academysumma cum laudeRegistered Userregular
edited September 2007
Who wants to buy me a TI-84 calculator, huh? Anyone? Please?
Godammit I don't have the money for this stupid thing
Alright, I finally puzzled out what Squash is going for, so I'll send in my seering of Bee Colon Ell...also please please please buy me that expensive-ass calculator? Pleeeeaaaaseee?
Who wants to buy me a TI-84 calculator, huh? Anyone? Please?
Godammit I don't have the money for this stupid thing
Alright, I finally puzzled out what Squash is going for, so I'll send in my seering of Bee Colon Ell...also please please please buy me that expensive-ass calculator? Pleeeeaaaaseee?
I might have one you can buy off me. It might be a TI-81 though, so that's no good. It would be full of Chemistry notes, and I might have ebayed it a couple years back.
Who wants to buy me a TI-84 calculator, huh? Anyone? Please?
Godammit I don't have the money for this stupid thing
Alright, I finally puzzled out what Squash is going for, so I'll send in my seering of Bee Colon Ell...also please please please buy me that expensive-ass calculator? Pleeeeaaaaseee?
Office Depot:
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5. Final Price: $100 - $20 - $25 = $55 + Free shipping (plus taxes)
Disclaimer: Office Depot sucks and may cancel your order, coupon, and/or rebate. Caveat Emptor.
Posts
Agreed.
I do think we want to frown heavily upon those who do not follow The Plan. At least without voicing strong opposition to it before hand.
Unfortunately I mislike where this goes next.
[size=+3]HERE IS YOUR SEER TARGET FOR TONIGHT[/size]
[size=+1]
Hakkekage <---> B:L
Fembot <---> DevoutlyApathetic
Zot <---> PRËTËNTIÖüS
thorgot <---> Squashua
Ardor <---> Aldo
TehSpectre <---> MrBallBaggins
FunkyWaltDogg <---> Bliss 101 (leftover)[/size]
OPTIONALLY, FWD can seer whomever if Bliss101 ends up being the top vote recipient.
Question: Are we told who the bad guy is that died or are we just told that a bad guy died?
Since this is less of a Phalla and more of a logical exercise, a certain amount of leaning on the nonconformists is going to be required if we want to have any chance.
Except the monsters can present logic which helps them, and then say that people who don't conform to it are obviously bad, because this is a completely logical game.
Got it.
Not that it matters, I'll follow Squashua's list.
After examining your list a while after calling you out on it, I speculated the same; I wanted to wait for your reply before confirming. :^:
For future reference: There is nothing suspicious about Aldo's list.
Of course, enough people have gone on the list I posted that it's no big deal at this point.
EDIT - PAGE TOP - Re-posting for prominence/exposure/TOTP:
[size=+2]HERE IS YOUR SEER TARGET FOR TONIGHT[/size]
(the order for this list is based solely on the OP order)
[size=+1]
Seer'd Self as Evil <---> Seer'd Self as Good
Hakkekage <---> B:L
Fembot <---> DevoutlyApathetic
Zot <---> PRËTËNTIÖüS
thorgot <---> Squashua
Ardor <---> Aldo
TehSpectre <---> MrBallBaggins
FunkyWaltDogg <---> Bliss 101 (did not seer self)[/size]
OPTIONALLY, FWD can seer whomever (obviously, do not name your target beforehand) if Bliss101 ends up being the top vote recipient.
The list checks out. Thanks for the good work, Squash. 8-)
FWD should probably keep his seering on Bliss, as to not confuse our results any further.
Here is my map:
Hakkekage .......... * * P I B
Fembot ............. * * P I B
Zot ................ * * P I B
B:L ................ T N * * B
DevoutlyApathetic .. T N * * B
Grundlterror ....... T N P I *
Bliss 101 .......... * * P I B
thorgot ............ * * P I B
PRËTËNTIÖüS ........ T N * * B
Squashua ........... T N * * B
Aldo ............... T N * * B
MrBallbaggins ...... T N * * B
Ardor .............. * * P I B
TehSpectre ......... * * P I B
FunkyWaltDogg ...... * * P I B
MrBlarney .......... T N P I *
KEY
T (3) - True Seer (Innocent - always sees correct)
N (3) - Naive (Innocent - always sees "Good")
P (3) - Paranoid (Innocent - always sees "Bad")
I (3) - Insane (Innocent - always sees opposite)
B (4) - Bad Guy (Guilty)
I'm sure this has been covered earlier, but I am full of redundancy:
Here's how it breaks down:
DAY ZERO
Step 1: Self-Remove B.
You know whether you are Innocent. Therefore you can remove B from yourself.
DAY ONE
Step 2: Assign GrundlTerror and Mr. Blarney
Both died innocent but neither had a seering; therefore we can only remove B from them.
Step 3: Assign Bliss101
Seered innocent GrundlTerror as guilty; therefore Bliss is either Bad, Paranoid or Insane.
Step 4: Clear "Good" players.
Remove I if someone seered "Good"; an Insane player would never seer themselves as "Good".
Remove P if someone seered "Good"; a Paranoid player only seers "Bad".
Step 5: Clear "Bad" players
Remove N if someone seered "Bad"; a Naive player only seers "Good".
DAY TWO
Step 6: Assign the Dead
If someone was innocent, remove B.
If someone was bad, remove all but B.
Step 7: An "Innocent" seer gets a "Good" result against a "Guilty" target
No changes. The seer is still T, N, or B, even if you were the "Guilty" (innocent) target.
If the "Guilty" target died and was proven good, no changes.
If the "Guilty" target died and was proven bad, remove T.
Step 8: An "Innocent" seer gets a "Bad" result against a "Guilty" target
The seer is not Naive, remove N. If you (innocent) are the seer, you are T.
If you were the "Guilty" target (innocent), also remove T - conclusion: seer is B.
If the "Guilty" target died and was proven good, also remove T - conclusion: seer is B.
If the "Guilty" target died and was proven bad, no additional changes.
Step 9: A "Guilty" seer gets a "Good" result against an "Innocent" target
The seer is not Paranoid, remove P. If you (innocent) are the seer, you are I.
If you were the "Innocent" target (innocent), also remove I - conclusion: seer is B.
If the "Innocent" target died and was proven good, also remove I - conclusion: seer is B.
If the "Innocent" target died and was proven bad, no additional changes.
Step 10: A "Guilty" seer gets a "Bad" result against an "Innocent" target
The seer is still P, I or B, even if you were the "Innocent" (innocent) target.
If the "Innocent" target died and was proven good, no changes.
If the "Innocent" target died and was proven bad, remove I.
Step 11: FunkyWaltDogg, a "Guilty" seer seers "Bliss101", a "Guilty" seer
If Bliss101 dies innocent
If FWD got a "Bad" result, FWD is still P, I, or B.
If FWD got a "Good" result, remove P from FWD (FWD will know he is Insane).
If Bliss101 dies guilty
If FWD got a "Bad" result, remove I from FWD (FWD will know he is Paranoid).
If FWD got a "Good" result, remove P from FWD (FWD will know he is Insane).
Conclusions
Tomorrow:
1 - You might know if you are a True Seer or a Insane Seer; we might know all their identities unless a Bad Guy takes a risk.
2 - You might know if a seer is Bad.
Edits: Added Step 11; Cleared up Good/Insane issue; Added Results if Target Dies.
This is not quite right. Players who seered good are known to all not to be Insane, while players who seered evil don't yet know whether they are Insane or Paranoid.
EDIT: You can delete posts, you know.
Where the bad guys can't change their actions.
I thought about it, but concluded that it doesn't matter because the two bad guy groups want each other dead.
Therefore, if all "Guilty" bad guys vote "Good", they have a good chance of revealing themselves to the opposite team.
Ah, right. Will fix.
I wouldn't trust either of them to kill each other at this point, other than through luck.
But after thinking about the dual teams, something seems off. There was only one kill last night.
Do the teams alternate kills? Or does the other team have some nefarious power, such as changing someone's seer results?
...nah, it's probably just alternating kills. ;-)
Both bad guy teams targeted MrBlarney.
Unless I'm reading it wrong, they BOTH attacked Mr. Blarney.
Well, here's the fun. Now that I've done what I did, ANYONE can continue the process if I get killed tonight.
What's even better is that they can't coordinate kills. I wonder which group will target me. :-)
@ FWD
By process of elimination, none of those who seered "Good" last night are insane.
There are 6 who seered Good + 2 dead players who are Good. (originally read "There are 8 who seered Good").
3 must be Naive.
3 must be True.
Therefore the other 2 must be Bad. I'm going to adjust rule two and the checklist/table.
edit I could be wrong - no changes for now until I go over it in my head.
OK. If you were insane, and you seered yourself last night, the ONLY result you could get would be "Bad".
You could not possibly get a "good" result.
Therefore anyone who seered good would definitely not have an "I" next to them.
Am I wrong?
Ah, right. That makes sense.
I just fancy the idea of a vigilante seer.
"Hi there! I seered you and I just got your results back...YOU'RE DEAD! :whistle: "
Sorry; right. What I meant was there are 6 LIVING who seered Good.
And two DEAD who are Good.
So 8 good; 8 evil. Grundl seered evil via Bliss101, but was good; that's telling for Bliss, not Grundl.
This is correct.
So... what would the next logical step be for voting purposes?
@FWD - I have then changed step 2 (moved to step 4) and removed "I" from all who seered "Good" last night.
We'll have to see the results and then maybe trust people who've been seered as good twice a little. It really depends on the results of tonight.
What we'll be looking for tonight is inconsistencies. We've roughly divided our seers into Good - Evil pairs; if both are innocent, then the Good (Naive or True) seer will see his opposite as Good, and the Evil (Paranoid or Insane) seer will see his partner as Evil. The cases where anything else happens will be the ones to examine first.
- - -
Here is the likely situation for tonight:
1) Bad Guys who seered "Innocent" on Day One will post a "Good" result.
2) Bad Guys who seered "Guilty" on Day One will post a "Bad" result.
3) Bad Guys who are targeting a teammate tonight will post opposite of (1)/(2).
4) Bad Guys who suspect they are targeting the opposing Bad Guy team will post opposite (1)/(2).
Chances are that (3) is not an actual situation, and no Bad Guy will follow tactic (4), even though the best Bad Guy tactic tonight will be for one to post using (1)/(2) and the other to post opposite. I think this will keep them hidden for the longest amount of time to get in the most kills.
So let's pretend all our Bad Guys are logicians and follow (1)/(2) above.
That means that we will know the identities of all the True and Insane seers tonight, and the bad guys will be hiding amongst the Naive/Paranoid seers.
So tomorrows tactic will be an equal distribution: All True/Insane seers should seer all Naive/Paranoid seers.
Who will they target for kills tonight?
Either the True/Naive seers to whittle them down (though that may give us a more trustworthy Insane group) or the Paranoid/Insane seers to even the balance.
Edit Another fun tactic would be for one Bad Guy to target the same target as their partner. It's risky, but it might be viewed as a way to sacrifice oneself to exhonerate the partner.
Just that a bad guy died.
+1 point to the bad guys.
Gotta give them some chance, y'know.
edit: and with that, Im off to bed.
Godammit I don't have the money for this stupid thing
Alright, I finally puzzled out what Squash is going for, so I'll send in my seering of Bee Colon Ell...also please please please buy me that expensive-ass calculator? Pleeeeaaaaseee?
NNID: Hakkekage
I might have one you can buy off me. It might be a TI-81 though, so that's no good. It would be full of Chemistry notes, and I might have ebayed it a couple years back.
Office Depot:
1. Click on this link to go to officedepot.com. http://slickdeals.net/?sduid=0&t=582822&u2=http://www.officedepot.com/ddSKU.do?level=SK&id=493752
2. Add to shopping cart and set it for in-store pickup at checkout
3. Enter $20 off $75+code 20860277 at the top of checkout [Exp 9/15]
4. $25 mail-in rebate offered on officedepot's website [Exp 9/22]
5. Final Price: $100 - $20 - $25 = $55 + Free shipping (plus taxes)
Disclaimer: Office Depot sucks and may cancel your order, coupon, and/or rebate. Caveat Emptor.
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Good luck!
It may have some profane words on startup, however.
And after carefully reviewing the situation, I Vote Ballbaggins because I don't know who else to vote for.