My mom thinks that Obama needs at least a 6 point lead going in to counteract closet racism (ie: people who won't say they have an issue with a black president but once inside the booth will vote for the white dude).
There are so many different factors going into this election that I wouldn't care if polling said a landslide one way or the other, no one knows what the fuck is going to happen this race.
No one knows what is going to happen in any given race until election day, but we can make one hell of an educated guess based on the numbers we have and the trends they follow. Acknowledging this is important because the race you run when you're ahead is not the race you run when you're behind. Thankfully by all available metrics Obama is running a comfortable lead in both the popular and electoral voting, and his campaign reflects his frontrunner status.
I think you are being unnecessarily dismissive of the way this election has been going over the last few months.
Zimmydoom, Zimmydoom
Flew away in a balloon
Had sex with polar bears
While sitting in a reclining chair
Now there are Zim-Bear hybrids
Running around and clawing eyelids
Watch out, a Zim-Bear is about to have sex with yooooooou!
My question is how gay atheists will get married. Is there a such thing as a Confucian rabbi/imam/Terry Pratchett?
Confucian?
Confucianism is about as conservative when it comes to gender roles as you can get. I don't know why you picked it out of all the philosophies in the world.
Anyway, how do people get married outside of church these days? Using a civil celebrant of course.
Because there's question over whether it's a religion or just a philosophy, so it's just up the ally for atheists if the decision on marriage is left to the religious community.
That's not how it works. Momentum matters and Palin was joke before this debate. She killed the joke.
I disagree with you, she's still a complete joke. The only thing she "killed" was that she could get any worse.
She's still an incoherent rambling mess, but at least she didn't go completely overboard in the clown train wreck that is the McSame:Bible Spice 08 campaign. I assure you though, she is still a complete joke but she will be dumped into the backline somewhere and deemphasised by the campaign. Biden on the other hand didn't gaff at all and was very on message I feel. I expected him to make an idiot of himself as well and he didn't.
Bush won twice as an incoherent rambling mess.
Is there anything in this race other then bible spice and John McCain's positions that represent the bush presidential races? Polls are improving for Obama and he's been leading them like Bush did to Kerry. Joe Public is saying Obama/Biden are winning the debates. It's like you are seeing bizarro events.
Don't get me wrong. I think Obama is in the lead. I'm just saying that Palin improved her personal position in the political world. This saves her as a future force for Republicans, it isn't going to make a great deal of difference in this election.
I'm sorry, but she really didn't. She has no future if they lose (and even then it's still arguable) as she has been the biggest embarrassment to the republican party this campaign. She will never ever live down the Couric interview.
Irond WillWARNING: NO HURTFUL COMMENTS, PLEASE!!!!!Cambridge. MAModeratorMod Emeritus
edited October 2008
So, I know that Shinker and a few others on this board felt like the debate was a waste of their time. It was a waste of their time, but it wasn't for them. Most of us that post here were wrapped up in the train-wreck of the recent Palimplosion, or were interested in an intellectual debate on policy or at the least wanted to observe some sort of personal competition between Biden and Palin. The debate didn't deliver any of those things.
What it did deliver was that Palin beat expectations and looked okay, but Biden was masterful. He didn't come off as arrogant, long-winded, unctuous or a bully - all of which were strong possibilities. He didn't attack Palin at all (disappointing some libs who really wanted to see someone stick it to her), but spent just about 90 minutes drilling McCain, and in such a way that Palin couldn't defend him - which, really, is the fundamental job of a VP candidate.
Biden's moment where he choked up was moving, and he spoke with passion throughout. This was easily the best debate performance I've seen Biden produce.
Both Biden and Palin came out of the VP debate looking better than they went in. John McCain came out of the VP debate looking much worse than he went in.
Irond Will on
0
Options
ZimmydoomAccept no substitutesRegistered Userregular
That's not how it works. Momentum matters and Palin was joke before this debate. She killed the joke.
I disagree with you, she's still a complete joke. The only thing she "killed" was that she could get any worse.
She's still an incoherent rambling mess, but at least she didn't go completely overboard in the clown train wreck that is the McSame:Bible Spice 08 campaign. I assure you though, she is still a complete joke but she will be dumped into the backline somewhere and deemphasised by the campaign. Biden on the other hand didn't gaff at all and was very on message I feel. I expected him to make an idiot of himself as well and he didn't.
Bush won twice as an incoherent rambling mess.
Is there anything in this race other then bible spice and John McCain's positions that represent the bush presidential races? Polls are improving for Obama and he's been leading them like Bush did to Kerry. Joe Public is saying Obama/Biden are winning the debates. It's like you are seeing bizarro events.
Don't get me wrong. I think Obama is in the lead. I'm just saying that Palin improved her personal position in the political world. This saves her as a future force for Republicans, it isn't going to make a great deal of difference in this election.
Puck, you've been DOOM AND GLOOM in here since well before the conventions, and I have yet to see you be proven right about anything with regard to how these isolated events affect the long-term direction of this race as a whole.
You're certainly entitled to feel that way, but can you please give me something to justify such pessimism/prognostication at this point other than "I think it's what will happen" or "because Bush won and he's dumb?"
Zimmydoom, Zimmydoom
Flew away in a balloon
Had sex with polar bears
While sitting in a reclining chair
Now there are Zim-Bear hybrids
Running around and clawing eyelids
Watch out, a Zim-Bear is about to have sex with yooooooou!
My mom thinks that Obama needs at least a 6 point lead going in to counteract closet racism (ie: people who won't say they have an issue with a black president but once inside the booth will vote for the white dude).
There are so many different factors going into this election that I wouldn't care if polling said a landslide one way or the other, no one knows what the fuck is going to happen this race.
Bottom line. Shit has reached the point where this isn't just a sporting event.
themightypuck on
“Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.”
― Marcus Aurelius
Because there's question over whether it's a religion or just a philosophy, so it's just up the ally for atheists if the decision on marriage is left to the religious community.
Yeah, I was just pointing out that Confucianism is far more homophobic than Christianity. One of its fundamental principles is the traditional notion of gender roles.
Marlor on
Mario Kart Wii: 1332-8060-5236 (Aaron)
0
Options
AegeriTiny wee bacteriumsPlateau of LengRegistered Userregular
edited October 2008
The New Zealand political commentator, who is a very sharp guy and he predicted things like a Bush win in 2000/2004 gave his opinion that the debate was clearly won by Biden. He also picked up that Palin didn't really answer questions and frequently turned into a complete mess. Finally, he was very impressed that Biden didn't put his foot in his mouth - something he somewhat expected before the debate.
That's not how it works. Momentum matters and Palin was joke before this debate. She killed the joke.
I disagree with you, she's still a complete joke. The only thing she "killed" was that she could get any worse.
She's still an incoherent rambling mess, but at least she didn't go completely overboard in the clown train wreck that is the McSame:Bible Spice 08 campaign. I assure you though, she is still a complete joke but she will be dumped into the backline somewhere and deemphasised by the campaign. Biden on the other hand didn't gaff at all and was very on message I feel. I expected him to make an idiot of himself as well and he didn't.
Bush won twice as an incoherent rambling mess.
Is there anything in this race other then bible spice and John McCain's positions that represent the bush presidential races? Polls are improving for Obama and he's been leading them like Bush did to Kerry. Joe Public is saying Obama/Biden are winning the debates. It's like you are seeing bizarro events.
Don't get me wrong. I think Obama is in the lead. I'm just saying that Palin improved her personal position in the political world. This saves her as a future force for Republicans, it isn't going to make a great deal of difference in this election.
Puck, you've been DOOM AND GLOOM in here since well before the conventions, and I have yet to see you be proven right about anything with regard to how these isolated events affect the long-term direction of this race as a whole.
You're certainly entitled to feel that way, but can you please give me something to justify such pessimism/prognostication at this point other than "I think it's what will happen" or "because Bush won and he's dumb?"
Yeah, for seriously. Your posts from about 6 months back till now have been "Oh man, I love Obama but don't you think he's basically doomed because I mean XYZ?"
At some point, doesn't the relentless pessimism start to wane?
Because there's question over whether it's a religion or just a philosophy, so it's just up the ally for atheists if the decision on marriage is left to the religious community.
Yeah, I was just pointing out that Confucianism is far more homophobic than Christianity. One of its fundamental principles is the traditional notion of gender roles.
So who would they contact is the decision is deemed to be religious domain?
So, I know that Shinker and a few others on this board felt like the debate was a waste of their time. It was a waste of their time, but it wasn't for them. Most of us that post here were wrapped up in the train-wreck of the recent Palimplosion, or were interested in an intellectual debate on policy or at the least wanted to observe some sort of personal competition between Biden and Palin. The debate didn't deliver any of those things.
What it did deliver was that Palin beat expectations and looked okay, but Biden was masterful. He didn't come off as arrogant, long-winded, unctuous or a bully - all of which were strong possibilities. He didn't attack Palin at all (disappointing some libs who really wanted to see someone stick it to her), but spent just about 90 minutes drilling McCain, and in such a way that Palin couldn't defend him - which, really, is the fundamental job of a VP candidate.
Biden's moment where he choked up was moving, and he spoke with passion throughout. This was easily the best debate performance I've seen Biden produce.
Both Biden and Palin came out of the VP debate looking better than they went in. John McCain came out of the VP debate looking much worse than he went in.
I agree. Palin was never really going to go anywhere, the damage had been done but her inability to defend McCain and the fact she clearly has different political ideas, just really burnt. I don't even think she attempted to call Biden on his former criticisms of Obamas experience or any of their political divisions.
My mom thinks that Obama needs at least a 6 point lead going in to counteract closet racism (ie: people who won't say they have an issue with a black president but once inside the booth will vote for the white dude).
I'm not going to argue that racism is effecting the election, but I really doubt there are that many people who say they'll vote Obama but then will change their mind right at the last minute. I just don't understand what would lead to that. An actual racist would never say they were going to Obama, and someone who was racist but not full blown and thinks they would vote Obama... what's gonna change their mind? Maybe I'm missing something.
That's true, but Bush wasn't sliding this badly in polls and eight years of arrogance and stupidity hadn't ground the American public opinion against them. Being a rambling, incoherent mess and a complete joke is going to bite McSame:Bible Spice 08 as much after this debate as it was before. The damage from Palin has already been done and then salt was thrown in the wound when McSame had to babysit her in an interview, which once and for all destroyed any confidence anyone could have had in Palin.
Man, don't you guys have stupid people in New Zealand? We have them in America - they're at least 15% of the registered voting population and every four years we change their title from "ignorant morons" to "undecided voters" for a few months before swapping it back.
While I agree that, speaking broadly, the sense of the nation has turned somewhat against Bush-like personality characteristics, you have to remember that the central appeal is now being made to people who haven't figured out how they're going to vote between strongly-opposed candidates after a year-long campaign. The same basic rules of rationality don't really apply here.
You know, I would have been so frustrated if I were Biden there. Like at the "McCain knows how to win a war" line, my response would have been "Oh really because the only war he fought in was the only war we ever lost" or something like that. Guy's great at keeping his cool.
I agree. Palin was never really going to go anywhere, the damage had been done but her inability to defend McCain and the fact she clearly has different political ideas, just really burnt. I don't even think she attempted to call Biden on his former criticisms of Obamas experience or any of their political divisions.
She tried a few times, but it didn't really seem to stick. I think I remember Biden at one point explaining that he and Obama differ occasionally but that it's his job as VP to offer his independent judgment and opinion but that Barack's the boss. It seemed like a good answer.
Irond Will on
0
Options
Irond WillWARNING: NO HURTFUL COMMENTS, PLEASE!!!!!Cambridge. MAModeratorMod Emeritus
You know, I would have been so frustrated if I were Biden there. Like at the "McCain knows how to win a war" line, my response would have been "Oh really because the only war he fought in was the only war we ever lost" or something like that. Guy's great at keeping his cool.
Man I said just about that exact thing to the room when Palin said that.
That's not how it works. Momentum matters and Palin was joke before this debate. She killed the joke.
I disagree with you, she's still a complete joke. The only thing she "killed" was that she could get any worse.
She's still an incoherent rambling mess, but at least she didn't go completely overboard in the clown train wreck that is the McSame:Bible Spice 08 campaign. I assure you though, she is still a complete joke but she will be dumped into the backline somewhere and deemphasised by the campaign. Biden on the other hand didn't gaff at all and was very on message I feel. I expected him to make an idiot of himself as well and he didn't.
Bush won twice as an incoherent rambling mess.
Is there anything in this race other then bible spice and John McCain's positions that represent the bush presidential races? Polls are improving for Obama and he's been leading them like Bush did to Kerry. Joe Public is saying Obama/Biden are winning the debates. It's like you are seeing bizarro events.
Don't get me wrong. I think Obama is in the lead. I'm just saying that Palin improved her personal position in the political world. This saves her as a future force for Republicans, it isn't going to make a great deal of difference in this election.
Puck, you've been DOOM AND GLOOM in here since well before the conventions, and I have yet to see you be proven right about anything with regard to how these isolated events affect the long-term direction of this race as a whole.
You're certainly entitled to feel that way, but can you please give me something to justify such pessimism/prognostication at this point other than "I think it's what will happen" or "because Bush won and he's dumb?"
I haven't been doom and gloom since the Wright business. I think it is close. I don't think it is close anymore because of the economic meltdown. I've seen Bush win two elections. I did not vote for Bush in either of these elections. Maybe I'm suffering from some sort of post election stress disorder. All I'm saying is that things don't always play out like you think they will. That said, are you disagreeing with me that Palin has saved her bacon with this debate? I think she has. Perhaps not in this election, but in her political career.
themightypuck on
“Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.”
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
0
Options
Irond WillWARNING: NO HURTFUL COMMENTS, PLEASE!!!!!Cambridge. MAModeratorMod Emeritus
I haven't been doom and gloom since the Wright business. I think it is close. I don't think it is close anymore because of the economic meltdown. I've seen Bush win two elections. I did not vote for Bush in either of these elections. Maybe I'm suffering from some sort of post election stress disorder. All I'm saying is that things don't always play out like you think they will. That said, are you disagreeing with me that Palin has saved her bacon with this debate? I think she has. Perhaps not in this election, but in her political career.
I'd agree with that. It's hard to know whether or not she'll have a political future, but if she'd blown this debate there would be no chance of it.
Sorry jeep, but I really think I need to turn in. I'll read you reply but the thread will probably have moved on by then. Though if you can demonstrably show me that marriage is not a religious term, that popular opinion within Christianity favours gay marriage and is not being acted upon, and that the government legalizing gay marriage against the religion's wishes is any better than the phantom scenario you thought I was proposing wherein the government could block said marriages, then I think you'll be making a lot more sense to me.
Currently your message seems to be "it's not fair that gays cannot get fully married in the religious sense", which although is true, I can't really support so long as the popular opinion in the religion, country/denomination-wide, is against it. How is that any fairer to the main body of believers? And how is it any more acceptable a level of government interference? I don't feel you're being objective about this.
Flippy_D on
0
Options
AegeriTiny wee bacteriumsPlateau of LengRegistered Userregular
That's true, but Bush wasn't sliding this badly in polls and eight years of arrogance and stupidity hadn't ground the American public opinion against them. Being a rambling, incoherent mess and a complete joke is going to bite McSame:Bible Spice 08 as much after this debate as it was before. The damage from Palin has already been done and then salt was thrown in the wound when McSame had to babysit her in an interview, which once and for all destroyed any confidence anyone could have had in Palin.
Man, don't you guys have stupid people in New Zealand?
Yes, they're called the Greens. But none the less, in New Zealand it's less relevant than in the US. You vote for a centrist-right or a centrist-left party that are inherently very similar. It's more about voting in the lesser group of morons at the time rather than anything else. Whichever main party has majority support then aligns itself with a few other parties to make a government and then you suffer 3 years of various stupid from there. At the moment, we have a similar situation to the US where the incumbent party in charge (Labour) are basically incompetent and filled to the brim with corruption, idiocy and have made several very unpopular laws. The National party are very far ahead in the polls, in fact by similar margins to Obama vs. McCain and even with various gaffs aren't losing support.
The exciting possibility for me is that National could govern alone, which would reduce a lot of the "nutty" effect as I call it from the smaller idiot parties (notably the Greens) that often hold the government to ransom to get through ridiculous legislation (the anti-smacking law).
It's the same thing as the US otherwise, because Labour have had 3 terms (9 years) in office and have driven the NZ public firmly against them. There have been numerous scandals, unpopular law reforms, sheer arrogance and endless stupidity. Labour will need a miracle to win, much like how I think McCain will need a miracle to win. The damage is done already and it becomes much harder for "idiots" to swing an election after they've had so long of the same shit to fail to pay attention.
You know, I would have been so frustrated if I were Biden there. Like at the "McCain knows how to win a war" line, my response would have been "Oh really because the only war he fought in was the only war we ever lost" or something like that. Guy's great at keeping his cool.
That was my exact reaction too. As soon as she said that I scoffed and yelled at my TV that the only war he fought in was a war we lost.
Sorry jeep, but I really think I need to turn in. I'll read you reply but the thread will probably have moved on by then. Though if you can demonstrably show me that marriage is not a religious term, that popular opinion within Christianity favours gay marriage and is not being acted upon, and that the government legalizing gay marriage against the religion's wishes is any better than the phantom scenario you thought I was proposing wherein the government could block said marriages, then I think you'll be making a lot more sense to me.
Currently your message seems to be "it's not fair that gays cannot get fully married in the religious sense", which although is true, I can't really support so long as the popular opinion in the religion, country/denomination-wide, is against it. How is that any fairer to the main body of believers? And how is it any more acceptable a level of government interference? I don't feel you're being objective about this.
I do not think that you grasp the very fundamental concept of a religiously plural society.
It is a fact of US law that a popular religion is not to be given special consideration over an unpopular one before the law.
Your argument is rooted in the notion that since christianity is the most popular faith, and since most christians are against gay marriage, that their beliefs should affect how law is applied to other faiths.
This is simply, and horribly, wrong. It's also distinctly un-American.
My mom thinks that Obama needs at least a 6 point lead going in to counteract closet racism (ie: people who won't say they have an issue with a black president but once inside the booth will vote for the white dude).
I'm not going to argue that racism is effecting the election, but I really doubt there are that many people who say they'll vote Obama but then will change their mind right at the last minute. I just don't understand what would lead to that. An actual racist would never say they were going to Obama, and someone who was racist but not full blown and thinks they would vote Obama... what's gonna change their mind? Maybe I'm missing something.
Bradley effect. White people who don't want to seem racist (whether they are or not) will say they're voting for the black guy, then vote for the white guy. They may be voting for the white guy for reasons that have nothing at all to do with race, but they don't want to sound racist.
My mom thinks that Obama needs at least a 6 point lead going in to counteract closet racism (ie: people who won't say they have an issue with a black president but once inside the booth will vote for the white dude).
I'm not going to argue that racism is effecting the election, but I really doubt there are that many people who say they'll vote Obama but then will change their mind right at the last minute. I just don't understand what would lead to that. An actual racist would never say they were going to Obama, and someone who was racist but not full blown and thinks they would vote Obama... what's gonna change their mind? Maybe I'm missing something.
Bradley effect. White people who don't want to seem racist (whether they are or not) will say they're voting for the black guy, then vote for the white guy. They may be voting for the white guy for reasons that have nothing at all to do with race, but they don't want to sound racist.
Which has been disproven over and over again in this cycle.
enlightenedbum on
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
0
Options
ZimmydoomAccept no substitutesRegistered Userregular
That's not how it works. Momentum matters and Palin was joke before this debate. She killed the joke.
I disagree with you, she's still a complete joke. The only thing she "killed" was that she could get any worse.
She's still an incoherent rambling mess, but at least she didn't go completely overboard in the clown train wreck that is the McSame:Bible Spice 08 campaign. I assure you though, she is still a complete joke but she will be dumped into the backline somewhere and deemphasised by the campaign. Biden on the other hand didn't gaff at all and was very on message I feel. I expected him to make an idiot of himself as well and he didn't.
Bush won twice as an incoherent rambling mess.
Is there anything in this race other then bible spice and John McCain's positions that represent the bush presidential races? Polls are improving for Obama and he's been leading them like Bush did to Kerry. Joe Public is saying Obama/Biden are winning the debates. It's like you are seeing bizarro events.
Don't get me wrong. I think Obama is in the lead. I'm just saying that Palin improved her personal position in the political world. This saves her as a future force for Republicans, it isn't going to make a great deal of difference in this election.
Puck, you've been DOOM AND GLOOM in here since well before the conventions, and I have yet to see you be proven right about anything with regard to how these isolated events affect the long-term direction of this race as a whole.
You're certainly entitled to feel that way, but can you please give me something to justify such pessimism/prognostication at this point other than "I think it's what will happen" or "because Bush won and he's dumb?"
I haven't been doom and gloom since the Wright business. I think it is close. I don't think it is close anymore because of the economic meltdown. I've seen Bush win two elections. I did not vote for Bush in either of these elections. Maybe I'm suffering from some sort of post election stress disorder. All I'm saying is that things don't always play out like you think they will. That said, are you disagreeing with me that Palin has saved her bacon with this debate? I think she has. Perhaps not in this election, but in her political career.
She never had a political future outside Alaska. She still doesn't. Any statements to the contrary have been from GOP hacks and media people desperate for a good story.
And, to be honest, I really don't care that you've seen Bush win two elections. I've seen it too, and one of them was the only presidential election I've ever voted in. If you want to be a pessimist, then fine, but all this bullshit of "OMG BUSH WON AND HE'S A BIG STUPID" is completely irrelevant to this discussion.
#1: Bush is not nearly the idiot that you and others would love to believe he is. #2: Bush is a much, much better campaigner than is John McCain, and had a much more competent staff behind him. #3: Barack Obama is twice the candidate that Gore and Kerry were combined. #4: Barack Obama is running as the opposition candidate after eight years of one of the least popular presidents in American history.
I'm sure there are reasons out there to believe that Obama may lose this election, but so far you (and others) haven't been anywhere near them.
Zimmydoom, Zimmydoom
Flew away in a balloon
Had sex with polar bears
While sitting in a reclining chair
Now there are Zim-Bear hybrids
Running around and clawing eyelids
Watch out, a Zim-Bear is about to have sex with yooooooou!
0
Options
Irond WillWARNING: NO HURTFUL COMMENTS, PLEASE!!!!!Cambridge. MAModeratorMod Emeritus
My mom thinks that Obama needs at least a 6 point lead going in to counteract closet racism (ie: people who won't say they have an issue with a black president but once inside the booth will vote for the white dude).
I'm not going to argue that racism is effecting the election, but I really doubt there are that many people who say they'll vote Obama but then will change their mind right at the last minute. I just don't understand what would lead to that. An actual racist would never say they were going to Obama, and someone who was racist but not full blown and thinks they would vote Obama... what's gonna change their mind? Maybe I'm missing something.
Bradley effect. White people who don't want to seem racist (whether they are or not) will say they're voting for the black guy, then vote for the white guy. They may be voting for the white guy for reasons that have nothing at all to do with race, but they don't want to sound racist.
Haven't the studies shown a huge decline (and maybe even a reversal) of the Bradley effect in recent years?
My mom thinks that Obama needs at least a 6 point lead going in to counteract closet racism (ie: people who won't say they have an issue with a black president but once inside the booth will vote for the white dude).
I'm not going to argue that racism is effecting the election, but I really doubt there are that many people who say they'll vote Obama but then will change their mind right at the last minute. I just don't understand what would lead to that. An actual racist would never say they were going to Obama, and someone who was racist but not full blown and thinks they would vote Obama... what's gonna change their mind? Maybe I'm missing something.
Bradley effect. White people who don't want to seem racist (whether they are or not) will say they're voting for the black guy, then vote for the white guy. They may be voting for the white guy for reasons that have nothing at all to do with race, but they don't want to sound racist.
I like this idea, because it presupposes that polling has never, ever encountered nor corrected for lying by survey subjects.
Cause I mean, what are the odds that it exists outside of cleverly hidden racism!
She never had a political future outside Alaska. She still doesn't. Any statements to the contrary have been from GOP hacks and media people desperate for a good story.
And, to be honest, I really don't care that you've seen Bush win two elections. I've seen it too, and one of them was the only presidential election I've ever voted in. If you want to be a pessimist, then fine, but all this bullshit of "OMG BUSH WON AND HE'S A BIG STUPID" is completely irrelevant to this discussion.
#1: Bush is not nearly the idiot that you and others would love to believe he is. #2: Bush is a much, much better campaigner than is John McCain, and had a much more competent staff behind him. #3: Barack Obama is twice the candidate that Gore and Kerry were combined. #4: Barack Obama is running as the opposition candidate after eight years of one of the least popular presidents in American history.
I'm sure there are reasons out there to believe that Obama may lose this election, but so far you (and others) haven't been anywhere near them.
Actually one of the reasons the Monegan firing scandal was such a big deal when it first came out was because Palin was generally seen as a rising star in the Republican party and a candidate down the line and a long shot for McCain's VP. Generally speaking, she and Jindal were seen as the future of the Republican Party by a lot of people. It's more Jindal by himself now, and he seems competent and not an asshole so far.
enlightenedbum on
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
0
Options
AegeriTiny wee bacteriumsPlateau of LengRegistered Userregular
I take issue with that. Bush is, in fact, an idiot.
Yes, but he had excellent campaigners behind me and very competent people. That he's a lame duck now and has been since the Republicans lost control of the senate a while ago is a different problem.
My mom thinks that Obama needs at least a 6 point lead going in to counteract closet racism (ie: people who won't say they have an issue with a black president but once inside the booth will vote for the white dude).
I'm not going to argue that racism is effecting the election, but I really doubt there are that many people who say they'll vote Obama but then will change their mind right at the last minute. I just don't understand what would lead to that. An actual racist would never say they were going to Obama, and someone who was racist but not full blown and thinks they would vote Obama... what's gonna change their mind? Maybe I'm missing something.
Bradley effect. White people who don't want to seem racist (whether they are or not) will say they're voting for the black guy, then vote for the white guy. They may be voting for the white guy for reasons that have nothing at all to do with race, but they don't want to sound racist.
thanks, seriously, I'd not heard of this but that does seem plausible. It just wasn't making sense to me but I can see where it comes from.
That's not how it works. Momentum matters and Palin was joke before this debate. She killed the joke.
I disagree with you, she's still a complete joke. The only thing she "killed" was that she could get any worse.
She's still an incoherent rambling mess, but at least she didn't go completely overboard in the clown train wreck that is the McSame:Bible Spice 08 campaign. I assure you though, she is still a complete joke but she will be dumped into the backline somewhere and deemphasised by the campaign. Biden on the other hand didn't gaff at all and was very on message I feel. I expected him to make an idiot of himself as well and he didn't.
Bush won twice as an incoherent rambling mess.
Is there anything in this race other then bible spice and John McCain's positions that represent the bush presidential races? Polls are improving for Obama and he's been leading them like Bush did to Kerry. Joe Public is saying Obama/Biden are winning the debates. It's like you are seeing bizarro events.
Don't get me wrong. I think Obama is in the lead. I'm just saying that Palin improved her personal position in the political world. This saves her as a future force for Republicans, it isn't going to make a great deal of difference in this election.
Puck, you've been DOOM AND GLOOM in here since well before the conventions, and I have yet to see you be proven right about anything with regard to how these isolated events affect the long-term direction of this race as a whole.
You're certainly entitled to feel that way, but can you please give me something to justify such pessimism/prognostication at this point other than "I think it's what will happen" or "because Bush won and he's dumb?"
I haven't been doom and gloom since the Wright business. I think it is close. I don't think it is close anymore because of the economic meltdown. I've seen Bush win two elections. I did not vote for Bush in either of these elections. Maybe I'm suffering from some sort of post election stress disorder. All I'm saying is that things don't always play out like you think they will. That said, are you disagreeing with me that Palin has saved her bacon with this debate? I think she has. Perhaps not in this election, but in her political career.
She never had a political future outside Alaska. She still doesn't. Any statements to the contrary have been from GOP hacks and media people desperate for a good story.
And, to be honest, I really don't care that you've seen Bush win two elections. I've seen it too, and one of them was the only presidential election I've ever voted in. If you want to be a pessimist, then fine, but all this bullshit of "OMG BUSH WON AND HE'S A BIG STUPID" is completely irrelevant to this discussion.
#1: Bush is not nearly the idiot that you and others would love to believe he is. #2: Bush is a much, much better campaigner than is John McCain, and had a much more competent staff behind him. #3: Barack Obama is twice the candidate that Gore and Kerry were combined. #4: Barack Obama is running as the opposition candidate after eight years of one of the least popular presidents in American history.
I'm sure there are reasons out there to believe that Obama may lose this election, but so far you (and others) haven't been anywhere near them.
The urge to see Obama lose just to enjoy the Schadenfreude that would take place is disturbingly strong.
Must...resist...assholeness....
Kagera on
My neck, my back, my FUPA and my crack.
0
Options
ZimmydoomAccept no substitutesRegistered Userregular
I haven't been doom and gloom since the Wright business. I think it is close. I don't think it is close anymore because of the economic meltdown. I've seen Bush win two elections. I did not vote for Bush in either of these elections. Maybe I'm suffering from some sort of post election stress disorder. All I'm saying is that things don't always play out like you think they will. That said, are you disagreeing with me that Palin has saved her bacon with this debate? I think she has. Perhaps not in this election, but in her political career.
I'd agree with that. It's hard to know whether or not she'll have a political future, but if she'd blown this debate there would be no chance of it.
Oh come on Will, where is this coming from? Where in the Nine Hells is this woman going to find a job outside of Alaska?
She's a national laughing stock. She's Alan Keyes in a skirt. She's done.
Zimmydoom, Zimmydoom
Flew away in a balloon
Had sex with polar bears
While sitting in a reclining chair
Now there are Zim-Bear hybrids
Running around and clawing eyelids
Watch out, a Zim-Bear is about to have sex with yooooooou!
My mom thinks that Obama needs at least a 6 point lead going in to counteract closet racism (ie: people who won't say they have an issue with a black president but once inside the booth will vote for the white dude).
I'm not going to argue that racism is effecting the election, but I really doubt there are that many people who say they'll vote Obama but then will change their mind right at the last minute. I just don't understand what would lead to that. An actual racist would never say they were going to Obama, and someone who was racist but not full blown and thinks they would vote Obama... what's gonna change their mind? Maybe I'm missing something.
Bradley effect. White people who don't want to seem racist (whether they are or not) will say they're voting for the black guy, then vote for the white guy. They may be voting for the white guy for reasons that have nothing at all to do with race, but they don't want to sound racist.
thanks, seriously, I'd not heard of this but that does seem plausible. It just wasn't making sense to me but I can see where it comes from.
4. One should be very careful not to confuse a study like this with the Bradley Effect. Of course some people are racist, and will vote against Obama because he is black -- I have met some of them. But the Bradley Effect concerns something different -- whether such people are likely to lie about their behavior to pollsters. There is simply no empirical evidence that the Bradley Effect exists any longer. It did not exist in the primaries, and it did not exist in the 2006 Senate race in Tennessee, which was perhaps the most racially-tinged contest of the past decade (in fact, Harold Ford slightly outperformed the late polls).
enlightenedbum on
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Sorry jeep, but I really think I need to turn in. I'll read you reply but the thread will probably have moved on by then. Though if you can demonstrably show me that marriage is not a religious term, that popular opinion within Christianity favours gay marriage and is not being acted upon, and that the government legalizing gay marriage against the religion's wishes is any better than the phantom scenario you thought I was proposing wherein the government could block said marriages, then I think you'll be making a lot more sense to me.
Currently your message seems to be "it's not fair that gays cannot get fully married in the religious sense", which although is true, I can't really support so long as the popular opinion in the religion, country/denomination-wide, is against it. How is that any fairer to the main body of believers? And how is it any more acceptable a level of government interference? I don't feel you're being objective about this.
Didn't I just write how, in traditional European culture, the king was more involved in marriage than the church?
I haven't been doom and gloom since the Wright business. I think it is close. I don't think it is close anymore because of the economic meltdown. I've seen Bush win two elections. I did not vote for Bush in either of these elections. Maybe I'm suffering from some sort of post election stress disorder. All I'm saying is that things don't always play out like you think they will. That said, are you disagreeing with me that Palin has saved her bacon with this debate? I think she has. Perhaps not in this election, but in her political career.
I'd agree with that. It's hard to know whether or not she'll have a political future, but if she'd blown this debate there would be no chance of it.
Oh come on Will, where is this coming from? Where in the Nine Hells is this woman going to find a job outside of Alaska?
She's a national laughing stock. She's Alan Keyes in a skirt. She's done.
I think Will's right. they're behind in the polls but not that far behind. I'm sure given 8 years or so she can make up for how bad she's looked, learn a little bit, and make a real run at something serious.
Posts
No one knows what is going to happen in any given race until election day, but we can make one hell of an educated guess based on the numbers we have and the trends they follow. Acknowledging this is important because the race you run when you're ahead is not the race you run when you're behind. Thankfully by all available metrics Obama is running a comfortable lead in both the popular and electoral voting, and his campaign reflects his frontrunner status.
I think you are being unnecessarily dismissive of the way this election has been going over the last few months.
Yeah, it was infractable.
Because there's question over whether it's a religion or just a philosophy, so it's just up the ally for atheists if the decision on marriage is left to the religious community.
I'm sorry, but she really didn't. She has no future if they lose (and even then it's still arguable) as she has been the biggest embarrassment to the republican party this campaign. She will never ever live down the Couric interview.
What it did deliver was that Palin beat expectations and looked okay, but Biden was masterful. He didn't come off as arrogant, long-winded, unctuous or a bully - all of which were strong possibilities. He didn't attack Palin at all (disappointing some libs who really wanted to see someone stick it to her), but spent just about 90 minutes drilling McCain, and in such a way that Palin couldn't defend him - which, really, is the fundamental job of a VP candidate.
Biden's moment where he choked up was moving, and he spoke with passion throughout. This was easily the best debate performance I've seen Biden produce.
Both Biden and Palin came out of the VP debate looking better than they went in. John McCain came out of the VP debate looking much worse than he went in.
Puck, you've been DOOM AND GLOOM in here since well before the conventions, and I have yet to see you be proven right about anything with regard to how these isolated events affect the long-term direction of this race as a whole.
You're certainly entitled to feel that way, but can you please give me something to justify such pessimism/prognostication at this point other than "I think it's what will happen" or "because Bush won and he's dumb?"
I get the idea that we're not seeing eye-to-eye. If you prefer to drop it, then that's cool. It's 6:19am over here.
Bottom line. Shit has reached the point where this isn't just a sporting event.
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
Yeah, I was just pointing out that Confucianism is far more homophobic than Christianity. One of its fundamental principles is the traditional notion of gender roles.
Yeah, for seriously. Your posts from about 6 months back till now have been "Oh man, I love Obama but don't you think he's basically doomed because I mean XYZ?"
At some point, doesn't the relentless pessimism start to wane?
So who would they contact is the decision is deemed to be religious domain?
I agree. Palin was never really going to go anywhere, the damage had been done but her inability to defend McCain and the fact she clearly has different political ideas, just really burnt. I don't even think she attempted to call Biden on his former criticisms of Obamas experience or any of their political divisions.
I'm not going to argue that racism is effecting the election, but I really doubt there are that many people who say they'll vote Obama but then will change their mind right at the last minute. I just don't understand what would lead to that. An actual racist would never say they were going to Obama, and someone who was racist but not full blown and thinks they would vote Obama... what's gonna change their mind? Maybe I'm missing something.
Man, don't you guys have stupid people in New Zealand? We have them in America - they're at least 15% of the registered voting population and every four years we change their title from "ignorant morons" to "undecided voters" for a few months before swapping it back.
While I agree that, speaking broadly, the sense of the nation has turned somewhat against Bush-like personality characteristics, you have to remember that the central appeal is now being made to people who haven't figured out how they're going to vote between strongly-opposed candidates after a year-long campaign. The same basic rules of rationality don't really apply here.
She tried a few times, but it didn't really seem to stick. I think I remember Biden at one point explaining that he and Obama differ occasionally but that it's his job as VP to offer his independent judgment and opinion but that Barack's the boss. It seemed like a good answer.
Man I said just about that exact thing to the room when Palin said that.
I haven't been doom and gloom since the Wright business. I think it is close. I don't think it is close anymore because of the economic meltdown. I've seen Bush win two elections. I did not vote for Bush in either of these elections. Maybe I'm suffering from some sort of post election stress disorder. All I'm saying is that things don't always play out like you think they will. That said, are you disagreeing with me that Palin has saved her bacon with this debate? I think she has. Perhaps not in this election, but in her political career.
― Marcus Aurelius
Path of Exile: themightypuck
I'd agree with that. It's hard to know whether or not she'll have a political future, but if she'd blown this debate there would be no chance of it.
Currently your message seems to be "it's not fair that gays cannot get fully married in the religious sense", which although is true, I can't really support so long as the popular opinion in the religion, country/denomination-wide, is against it. How is that any fairer to the main body of believers? And how is it any more acceptable a level of government interference? I don't feel you're being objective about this.
Yes, they're called the Greens. But none the less, in New Zealand it's less relevant than in the US. You vote for a centrist-right or a centrist-left party that are inherently very similar. It's more about voting in the lesser group of morons at the time rather than anything else. Whichever main party has majority support then aligns itself with a few other parties to make a government and then you suffer 3 years of various stupid from there. At the moment, we have a similar situation to the US where the incumbent party in charge (Labour) are basically incompetent and filled to the brim with corruption, idiocy and have made several very unpopular laws. The National party are very far ahead in the polls, in fact by similar margins to Obama vs. McCain and even with various gaffs aren't losing support.
The exciting possibility for me is that National could govern alone, which would reduce a lot of the "nutty" effect as I call it from the smaller idiot parties (notably the Greens) that often hold the government to ransom to get through ridiculous legislation (the anti-smacking law).
It's the same thing as the US otherwise, because Labour have had 3 terms (9 years) in office and have driven the NZ public firmly against them. There have been numerous scandals, unpopular law reforms, sheer arrogance and endless stupidity. Labour will need a miracle to win, much like how I think McCain will need a miracle to win. The damage is done already and it becomes much harder for "idiots" to swing an election after they've had so long of the same shit to fail to pay attention.
That was my exact reaction too. As soon as she said that I scoffed and yelled at my TV that the only war he fought in was a war we lost.
I do not think that you grasp the very fundamental concept of a religiously plural society.
It is a fact of US law that a popular religion is not to be given special consideration over an unpopular one before the law.
Your argument is rooted in the notion that since christianity is the most popular faith, and since most christians are against gay marriage, that their beliefs should affect how law is applied to other faiths.
This is simply, and horribly, wrong. It's also distinctly un-American.
-edit-
The enemy:
Because we have apologized before you dumbass. Lots of times even.
Idiot hyper-nationalist sky fairy worshipper.
Will reply in a bit.
Which has been disproven over and over again in this cycle.
She never had a political future outside Alaska. She still doesn't. Any statements to the contrary have been from GOP hacks and media people desperate for a good story.
And, to be honest, I really don't care that you've seen Bush win two elections. I've seen it too, and one of them was the only presidential election I've ever voted in. If you want to be a pessimist, then fine, but all this bullshit of "OMG BUSH WON AND HE'S A BIG STUPID" is completely irrelevant to this discussion.
#1: Bush is not nearly the idiot that you and others would love to believe he is. #2: Bush is a much, much better campaigner than is John McCain, and had a much more competent staff behind him. #3: Barack Obama is twice the candidate that Gore and Kerry were combined. #4: Barack Obama is running as the opposition candidate after eight years of one of the least popular presidents in American history.
I'm sure there are reasons out there to believe that Obama may lose this election, but so far you (and others) haven't been anywhere near them.
I like this idea, because it presupposes that polling has never, ever encountered nor corrected for lying by survey subjects.
Cause I mean, what are the odds that it exists outside of cleverly hidden racism!
Actually one of the reasons the Monegan firing scandal was such a big deal when it first came out was because Palin was generally seen as a rising star in the Republican party and a candidate down the line and a long shot for McCain's VP. Generally speaking, she and Jindal were seen as the future of the Republican Party by a lot of people. It's more Jindal by himself now, and he seems competent and not an asshole so far.
Yes, but he had excellent campaigners behind me and very competent people. That he's a lame duck now and has been since the Republicans lost control of the senate a while ago is a different problem.
thanks, seriously, I'd not heard of this but that does seem plausible. It just wasn't making sense to me but I can see where it comes from.
The urge to see Obama lose just to enjoy the Schadenfreude that would take place is disturbingly strong.
Must...resist...assholeness....
Oh come on Will, where is this coming from? Where in the Nine Hells is this woman going to find a job outside of Alaska?
She's a national laughing stock. She's Alan Keyes in a skirt. She's done.
Didn't I just write how, in traditional European culture, the king was more involved in marriage than the church?
I think Will's right. they're behind in the polls but not that far behind. I'm sure given 8 years or so she can make up for how bad she's looked, learn a little bit, and make a real run at something serious.