The other point is that he's completely misunderstanding how that probability scales against other risks. He hasn't got a fucking clue how to analyze the statistics of various risks against each other. Reminds me of when Carl Sagan wrote about people believing in the healing waters of Lourdes.
The spontaneous remission rates of all cancers... is estimated to be something between 1 in 10,000 and 1 in 100,000. If no more than 5% of those who come to Lourdes were there to treat their cancers, there should have been something between 50 and 500 'miraculous' cures of cancer alone. Since only 3 of the attested [by the Roman Catholic Church] 65 cures are of cancer, the rate of spontaneous remission at Lourdes seems to be lower than if the victims had just stayed at home.
jwalk is the type of person who out of ignorance would look simply at the number of people that went into remission after visiting Lourdes without asking the very important question about the background rate of spontaneous remission from cancer. He's too damn clueless to understand the relevance of other data.
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PiptheFairFrequently not in boats.Registered Userregular
I don't know if I could deal with the patdown. I'll take my 1 in 30 million chances of developing fatal cancer from the machine's radiation (I am probably exposed to more radiation daily at my job anyway), because the moment people start touching my sides, stomach, and legs I start giggling and laughing uncontrollably and I feel really dumb.
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Raneadospolice apologistyou shouldn't have been there, obviouslyRegistered Userregular
In 2008, there were 238 fatal workplace injuries for the hospitality and leisure industry. Are those deaths worth it just so the rest of us can take a little vacation?
WAKE UP, SHEEPLE!
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The GeekOh-Two Crew, OmeganautRegistered User, ClubPAregular
edited November 2010
I need to stop going into the tarot thread. It's just making me angry.
In 2008, there were 238 fatal workplace injuries for the hospitality and leisure industry. Are those deaths worth it just so the rest of us can take a little vacation?
No really, tell me how many people will get cancer from these machines, what is "acceptible losses"?
WAIT before you answer, the person that gets cancer is someone YOU KNOW. Oooooh
But seriously, how many of your family members are you willing to give cancer hmmm? Let's break down the numbers here.
For me I can say ZERO I want ZERO of my family or friends to die of cancer from these machines.
I'm just sayin... you decide for yourself though, don't wanna speak for anyone else ...
No one is saying that it is an acceptable loss. This is not the issue.
The issue is your understanding of probabilities.
"1 in 30 million chance to die" does not mean "For every 30 million people, one is guaranteed to die".
To go back to Usagi's example: You roll a d6. You have a 1 in 6 chance to roll a 3. That doesn't mean if you roll it six times, you are guaranteed to get a 3.
No really, tell me how many people will get cancer from these machines, what is "acceptible losses"?
WAIT before you answer, the person that gets cancer is someone YOU KNOW. Oooooh
But seriously, how many of your family members are you willing to give cancer hmmm? Let's break down the numbers here.
For me I can say ZERO I want ZERO of my family or friends to die of cancer from these machines.
I'm just sayin... you decide for yourself though, don't wanna speak for anyone else ...
When EVERYONE else is telling you that you don't know what the fuck you're talking about, you might want to do yourself a favor and shut the fuck up. Or just keep ranting like a moron.
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Raneadospolice apologistyou shouldn't have been there, obviouslyRegistered Userregular
No really, tell me how many people will get cancer from these machines, what is "acceptible losses"?
WAIT before you answer, the person that gets cancer is someone YOU KNOW. Oooooh
But seriously, how many of your family members are you willing to give cancer hmmm? Let's break down the numbers here.
For me I can say ZERO I want ZERO of my family or friends to die of cancer from these machines.
I'm just sayin... you decide for yourself though, don't wanna speak for anyone else ...
first: tying it to a personal level makes you petty, you're ignoring the facts and you're fearmongering
second, things that give you cancer: EVERYTHING
this isn't to say that increased risk is okay, but it is completely foolish to act like you're acting
unless you're FREAKING OUT over people being outside for a few hours without a hat, you're being a hypocrite. They're getting a dose of radiation that has a one in whatver million chance of giving them cancer. You could certainly stop yourself and those you love from going out in the sun. have them wear layers. But you're not
again I get it, you can get HIT BY A BUS TOO OOOH!!
Ok sure, and you want to add more chances of death to that, no matter how small, for the off chance a TURRIST sneaks a bomb on your plane? Uhhh ok sure go ahead whatever, guess I will just take the train.
Do you understand that an event with a 99.9% chance of occurring could realistically not happen at all?
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The GeekOh-Two Crew, OmeganautRegistered User, ClubPAregular
edited November 2010
Dru, settle down buddy. You have a tendency that if people don't agree with you or see your point after a couple of posts, you just start calling names.
again I get it, you can get HIT BY A BUS TOO OOOH!!
Ok sure, and you want to add more chances of death to that, no matter how small, for the off chance a TURRIST sneaks a bomb on your plane? Uhhh ok sure go ahead whatever, guess I will just take the train.
again I get it, you can get HIT BY A BUS TOO OOOH!!
Ok sure, and you want to add more chances of death to that, no matter how small, for the off chance a TURRIST sneaks a bomb on your plane? Uhhh ok sure go ahead whatever, guess I will just take the train.
I'm willing to take a 1 in 30 million chance to get cancer, that isn't even something worth considering.
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The GeekOh-Two Crew, OmeganautRegistered User, ClubPAregular
edited November 2010
I've already gotten cancer, so that means I'm safe from the machines.
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ArtreusI'm a wizardAnd that looks fucked upRegistered Userregular
edited November 2010
Jwalk. the 1 in a 30 million chances to get cancer.. their very own figures. Does not mean one out of every 30 million people get cancer. There is no "acceptable losses" going on. At all. That is not what the figures mean and that is not what is happening.
Also druhim, you are being pretty unhelpful with all of your vitriol
Posts
jwalk is the type of person who out of ignorance would look simply at the number of people that went into remission after visiting Lourdes without asking the very important question about the background rate of spontaneous remission from cancer. He's too damn clueless to understand the relevance of other data.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aG4erp40TUs
And guess what? The next time you roll the die, you also have a one in six chance of rolling a 2
I know some dudes that think that if you roll a d20 twenty times you will get a 20
I tried to explain why they're retarded
and then they brought up that they got good grades in prob and stat and I cried blood an passed out
haha have you seen those people that store "preloaded" dice?
the idea is they roll a dice a lot and if it gets low numbers, they store it away so that the next time they roll it, it rolls higher
hah
yes
I have met those people
and
I want to die
Yesssss
These are the people that grow up and drag their oxygen tanks and cartons of cigarettes around the casino slot floor, hunting for the "right" machine
WAKE UP, SHEEPLE!
what
it ...dice don't work that way
I just saw it was cj iwakura and avoided it
tell that to the millions of people that think they do
and re the tarot thread:
aw it's just a fun thread you uptight poops
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hig74yhS3SA
kpop appreciation station i also like to tweet some
well, it is.
No really, tell me how many people will get cancer from these machines, what is "acceptible losses"?
WAIT before you answer, the person that gets cancer is someone YOU KNOW. Oooooh
But seriously, how many of your family members are you willing to give cancer hmmm? Let's break down the numbers here.
For me I can say ZERO I want ZERO of my family or friends to die of cancer from these machines.
I'm just sayin... you decide for yourself though, don't wanna speak for anyone else ...
or cancer
or anything else
i don't think he could handle it
PSN: Robo_Wizard1
:^:
yeah I'm alright with that
kpop appreciation station i also like to tweet some
No one is saying that it is an acceptable loss. This is not the issue.
The issue is your understanding of probabilities.
"1 in 30 million chance to die" does not mean "For every 30 million people, one is guaranteed to die".
To go back to Usagi's example: You roll a d6. You have a 1 in 6 chance to roll a 3. That doesn't mean if you roll it six times, you are guaranteed to get a 3.
When EVERYONE else is telling you that you don't know what the fuck you're talking about, you might want to do yourself a favor and shut the fuck up. Or just keep ranting like a moron.
first: tying it to a personal level makes you petty, you're ignoring the facts and you're fearmongering
second, things that give you cancer: EVERYTHING
this isn't to say that increased risk is okay, but it is completely foolish to act like you're acting
unless you're FREAKING OUT over people being outside for a few hours without a hat, you're being a hypocrite. They're getting a dose of radiation that has a one in whatver million chance of giving them cancer. You could certainly stop yourself and those you love from going out in the sun. have them wear layers. But you're not
Ok sure, and you want to add more chances of death to that, no matter how small, for the off chance a TURRIST sneaks a bomb on your plane? Uhhh ok sure go ahead whatever, guess I will just take the train.
Chillax, dude.
you know that you can see out of your windows, but do you realize that others can also see in?
or in this case:
99.9999967%
edit: whoops misread
PSN: Robo_Wizard1
What
I'm willing to take a 1 in 30 million chance to get cancer, that isn't even something worth considering.
Also druhim, you are being pretty unhelpful with all of your vitriol
fact: you have a 1 in 10,000,000 chance of dying in any one plane crash if you pick one of the safer 25 airlines
fact the odds of a civilization-ending asteroid hitting the earth in your lifetime are 1 in 12,500
jwalk these are their own figures
their own figures
their own figures