Yeah that's the gambler's fallacy of large numbers...never fun, especially when some have opened 1 or 2 and got it. Congrats to them, but in a lottery situation it is depressing :P
PAX East 2013 Logo
PAX Kemper (East '13) Deep Crow Emu
Drop Bear
PAX Prime 2014 Logo
PAX South 2015 Logo
Catsby
Catsby
Twisp
Balloon Man
Present Div
Present Div
Badge Tycho
Tourist Tycho
Hotstepper Gabe
Fruit Fucker (Core 1.0, 2012)
Jamie (head, may have misremembered pin in video... apologies!)
DSB Merch (yay! http://i.imgur.com/PMhSuoC.jpg )
Previous video: 12 boxes
Merch (1.0)
Balloon Man
Balloon Man
PAX Kemper (East '13)
Iron Guard Stance
Mike Fehlauer (head)
Catsby
PAX East 2013 Logo
Gabe (core)
Tycho Sketch Front
Acquisitions Inc Logo Deep Crow Emu
PAX East 2014 Logo
Tycho (core)
PAX East 2015 Logo
Pinny Arcade logo
Acquisitions Inc Logo
PAX East 2015 Logo
Iced Coffee Kemper
Lookouts 02
Santa Gabe
Viking
Sunset Overdrive
Badge Tycho
Total: 21 boxes, 1 DSB Merch
(and 3 unopened boxes for opening at Prime!)
Double Secret Blind Box pin list
update once again.
27 pins accounted for.
533 boxes ordered account for.
Of those 394 boxes open.
The odds have stayed the same so far.
Based on a count of 27 pins out of 394 boxes opened, this is looking "good" for people to obtain Illidan Merch in the next blind box order (and by good, I mean possible... the odds are forever not in your favor, given the current numbers though).
Either that, or every AUS order is going to have 1 Illidan per box!
Pins for trade!
2015 PAX Prime Omeganaut (I will forever hate Katamari)
Based on a count of 27 pins out of 394 boxes opened, this is looking "good" for people to obtain Illidan Merch in the next blind box order (and by good, I mean possible... the odds are forever not in your favor, given the current numbers though).
Either that, or every AUS order is going to have 1 Illidan per box!
10 boxes. Zero DSB Merch . I'm new to this, but I got some better than average, but nothing to write home about. Right?
Core 1.0 Gabe x2
Core 1.0 Fruit Fucker
Core 1.0 Tycho
Catsby x2
Binwin Bronzebottom
Merch 2.0
PAX AUS 2014 Logo
Dropbear
Emu
Tourist Tycho x2
Hotstepper Gabe
Jamie Series 1
Tycho Tot x2
Juggernaut
If they keep this drop rate the same for the DSB Merch in future DSBes, that 500 should last for 6500 more boxes. Which makes me think the drop rate is probably 6.66% Which is 1-in-15. Which is 500/7500. And for those less into probability, that means if you open 15 boxes, your chance of getting 1 or more DSB Merches is ~64%.
If you buy 12, you have a 56% to get 1 or more. Your chances of getting X DSB Merches is:
0: 43.9%
1: 37.6%
2: 14.6%
3: 3.4%
4: 0.5%
5-12: <0.1%
The chance to go 12 for 12 would be 1/400 Trillion
<edited to reflect actual number of DSB Merches, and added some more drop rates>
eloThat guy over there...Smoke stack central, NJRegistered Userregular
My 5 boxes got here today. Sadly no LE Merch, but still a good batch. Didn't have the Davey Crockett or Atoi pins, and the Kemperoo pins will be great for trading at East next year
My 5 boxes got here today. Sadly no LE Merch, but still a good batch. Didn't have the Davey Crockett or Atoi pins, and the Kemperoo pins will be great for trading at East next year
That East 13 logo is also a great pin to have spare!
My 5 boxes got here today. Sadly no LE Merch, but still a good batch. Didn't have the Davey Crockett or Atoi pins, and the Kemperoo pins will be great for trading at East next year
That East 13 logo is also a great pin to have spare!
10 boxes. Zero DSB Merch . I'm new to this, but I got some better than average, but nothing to write home about. Right?
Juggernaut is a 2013 pin that you don't see around all that much; people won't be crazy-go-nuts for it, but if you ask around I bet you can get a good trade.
It is going to be difficult not to just hang out at merchlite all day erry day at PAX and trade pins.
Don't let merchmistress or Erick rat me out to Brian, but I've been hoarding pins away like a rodent since day one, so I have A FEW impressive caches of rare goodies.
Don't let merchmistress or Erick rat me out to Brian, but I made off with the remaining 375 blind merch pins that weren't sent out, and I will only be trading them for Naughty Dog Clicker Pins
I knew there would be a reason for me not to melt those down!
I am glad that the DSB didn't sell till this month because if it sold in Joon™ then there would be no way anyone would be opening them in the merch lite line in 9day
We got our pin bags today, and the blue one is a misprint:
The logo is upside down on our blue one (our orange one is correct). Given that this is such a rare and desirable misprint, I'm sure someone will be along to offer me four Leeroys for it any second now...
First pack of 2 boxes..... core gabe. 2x jim darkmagic. South star tycho..... no dsbmerch. Got another pack of 10 boxes coming soon. Post pics and or vid then
Posts
Congrats nope!
Pin summary spoiler:
This video: 9 boxes
PAX East 2013 Logo
PAX Kemper (East '13)
Deep Crow Emu
Drop Bear
PAX Prime 2014 Logo
PAX South 2015 Logo
Catsby
Catsby
Twisp
Balloon Man
Present Div
Present Div
Badge Tycho
Tourist Tycho
Hotstepper Gabe
Fruit Fucker (Core 1.0, 2012)
Jamie (head, may have misremembered pin in video... apologies!)
DSB Merch (yay! http://i.imgur.com/PMhSuoC.jpg )
Previous video: 12 boxes
Merch (1.0)
Balloon Man
Balloon Man
PAX Kemper (East '13)
Iron Guard Stance
Mike Fehlauer (head)
Catsby
PAX East 2013 Logo
Gabe (core)
Tycho Sketch Front
Acquisitions Inc Logo
Deep Crow Emu
PAX East 2014 Logo
Tycho (core)
PAX East 2015 Logo
Pinny Arcade logo
Acquisitions Inc Logo
PAX East 2015 Logo
Iced Coffee Kemper
Lookouts 02
Santa Gabe
Viking
Sunset Overdrive
Badge Tycho
Total: 21 boxes, 1 DSB Merch
(and 3 unopened boxes for opening at Prime!)
update once again.
27 pins accounted for.
533 boxes ordered account for.
Of those 394 boxes open.
The odds have stayed the same so far.
Pinny Pal since PAX Prime 2013
Either that, or every AUS order is going to have 1 Illidan per box!
2015 PAX Prime Omeganaut (I will forever hate Katamari)
Please......PLEASE let it be the latter!
Always looking to trade.
Trade me pins! - https://pinnypals.com/pals/TheAggroCraig
If they keep this drop rate the same for the DSB Merch in future DSBes, that 500 should last for 6500 more boxes. Which makes me think the drop rate is probably 6.66% Which is 1-in-15. Which is 500/7500. And for those less into probability, that means if you open 15 boxes, your chance of getting 1 or more DSB Merches is ~64%.
If you buy 12, you have a 56% to get 1 or more. Your chances of getting X DSB Merches is:
0: 43.9%
1: 37.6%
2: 14.6%
3: 3.4%
4: 0.5%
5-12: <0.1%
The chance to go 12 for 12 would be 1/400 Trillion
<edited to reflect actual number of DSB Merches, and added some more drop rates>
It's bigger than a normal merch?
Pinny Pals Lanyard
That East 13 logo is also a great pin to have spare!
True story. I'll trade you for it!
Juggernaut is a 2013 pin that you don't see around all that much; people won't be crazy-go-nuts for it, but if you ask around I bet you can get a good trade.
http://pinmash.info - Two pins enter, one pins leaves... then the other pin leaves with a lower Elo rating
Added them all to my Pinny Pals, so feel free to stop on over if one tickles your fancy.
I knew there would be a reason for me not to melt those down!
http://pinmash.info - Two pins enter, one pins leaves... then the other pin leaves with a lower Elo rating
https://pinnypals.com/pals/Evenstar
Check out my YouTube Pinny Arcade Videos!
NOW I AM COMPLETE!
Check out my YouTube Pinny Arcade Videos!
Link to my DSB opening I did on Slack earlier today for those that missed it.
sorry @blighttdm when I copied your album to flip the images I missed 1
I'll fix that ........http://imgur.com/a/8VleH#0
Perhaps I can interest you in my meager selection of pins?
(1st lot of 12)
"Damn fine pins!"
"Damn fine pins!"
Pinny Pals Lanyard
My Digital Pin Lanyard || PAX East '13, '14, '15, '19 | PAX South '15
The logo is upside down on our blue one (our orange one is correct). Given that this is such a rare and desirable misprint, I'm sure someone will be along to offer me four Leeroys for it any second now...
http://pinmash.info - Two pins enter, one pins leaves... then the other pin leaves with a lower Elo rating
Check out my YouTube Pinny Arcade Videos!