I sense a lot "shoot the messenger" stuff with Silver and FiveThirtyEight. It's not clear to me how his methodology has changed that makes it suddenly so poor other than showing a race much tighter than we'd like.
I can see that he's more conservative (not in his politics, in his methodology) because he felt badly burned by the Trump loss. And frankly, that's understandable because almost none of us predicted that Trump would be the nominee.
I don't see what's so bad about "Clinton most likely wins, but there's a whole lot of shit we don't know, I mean look at how we got here in the first place!"
It's a scary thing, and we should be scared because even if Trump loses we have to worry about the future. But none of that is Nate Silver's fault.
The thing is, it doesn't show a tight race. It shows Clinton winning by 4.4 points. That is not tight.
It's tight in the sense that most of us here in the thread think Trump is so awful that he shouldn't be in the race at all, and certainly not with as much of the support as he has, especially after all of the disgusting revelations we've had throughout his campaign. Even if a less-than-10-point spread is a practically insurmountable lead in crazy electoral math, the fact that it's even a possibility, still a question at this point, is deeply upsetting.
Well I mean he's probably going to lose by less of a margin than Romney did and Romney, despite his many faults, is an intelligent adult and I don't think he has bragged about sexually harassing teenagers or sexually assaulting women
Huh?
Polling averages were much better for Romney than they are for Trump. Final RCP average in 2012 was 48.8 to 48.1. The actual result was 51.1 to 47.2. RCP average right now is 47.5 to 45.3.
So playing with 270towin, I think 275 is the worst case scenario given available data. Data could be wrong, obviously. And honestly I'm stretching to not include Nevada. But that's Obama 2012 - Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and ME-02.
Best case without really weird things happening (like Texas) is I think 378. Which is Obama 2012 + NC, Georgia, Arizona, Alaska, and NE-02.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
+1 for Clinton in Iowa. It felt good to vote against every R on the ticket. Now I need to find a way to get my wife, who is pregnant with twins and ready to pop any day, to the local library so she can vote. I should check and see if it's too late for a mail in ballot.
So playing with 270towin, I think 275 is the worst case scenario given available data. Data could be wrong, obviously. And honestly I'm stretching to not include Nevada. But that's Obama 2012 - Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and ME-02.
Best case without really weird things happening (like Texas) is I think 378. Which is Obama 2012 + NC, Georgia, Arizona, Alaska, and NE-02.
+1 for Clinton in Iowa. It felt good to vote against every R on the ticket. Now I need to find a way to get my wife, who is pregnant with twins and ready to pop any day, to the local library so she can vote. I should check and see if it's too late for a mail in ballot.
So playing with 270towin, I think 275 is the worst case scenario given available data. Data could be wrong, obviously. And honestly I'm stretching to not include Nevada. But that's Obama 2012 - Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and ME-02.
Best case without really weird things happening (like Texas) is I think 378. Which is Obama 2012 + NC, Georgia, Arizona, Alaska, and NE-02.
Has she ever been up in Ohio or Iowa?
Florida seems to be a tossup.
Pretty tight either way but fingers crossed
Yes to both. They're close, with a good turnout operation she could win both.
What I think is the most likely scenario is Clinton 323. Obama 2012 + NC - Ohio - Iowa. With Florida going for Clinton finally on like Friday next week.
enlightenedbum on
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
+1 for Clinton in Iowa. It felt good to vote against every R on the ticket. Now I need to find a way to get my wife, who is pregnant with twins and ready to pop any day, to the local library so she can vote. I should check and see if it's too late for a mail in ballot.
+1 for Clinton in Iowa. It felt good to vote against every R on the ticket. Now I need to find a way to get my wife, who is pregnant with twins and ready to pop any day, to the local library so she can vote. I should check and see if it's too late for a mail in ballot.
This means her vote counts as three, right?
One of the twins is a Trump supporter so it negates the Hillary vote of the other.
Black lives matter.
Law and Order ≠ Justice
ACNH Island Isla Cero: DA-3082-2045-4142
Captain of the SES Comptroller of the State
+1 for Clinton in Iowa. It felt good to vote against every R on the ticket. Now I need to find a way to get my wife, who is pregnant with twins and ready to pop any day, to the local library so she can vote. I should check and see if it's too late for a mail in ballot.
This means her vote counts as three, right?
Shhh! Quiet before Breitbart finds o-
"LIBERAL CONSPIRACY: BLUES CAUGHT RED-HANDED FORCING UNBORN BABIES TO VOTE"
+1 for Clinton in Iowa. It felt good to vote against every R on the ticket. Now I need to find a way to get my wife, who is pregnant with twins and ready to pop any day, to the local library so she can vote. I should check and see if it's too late for a mail in ballot.
This means her vote counts as three, right?
Shhh! Quiet before Breitbart finds o-
"LIBERAL CONSPIRACY: BLUES CAUGHT RED-HANDED FORCING UNBORN BABIES TO VOTE"
- shit.
FBI to reopen clinton email investigation over shocking voter fraud allegations
I don't understand the massive Clinton drop on 538. One week before the election, she has led consistently in the polls, and leads in more states than she needs for 270. Even accounting for the chance of polling error or other unlikely events, shouldn't she be modelled way higher than this?
Besides, why is the race getting tighter now? Aside from Comey's bullshit, nothing came out recently, and by all accounts more email crap should not be changing anyone's minds at this point.
+1 for Clinton in Iowa. It felt good to vote against every R on the ticket. Now I need to find a way to get my wife, who is pregnant with twins and ready to pop any day, to the local library so she can vote. I should check and see if it's too late for a mail in ballot.
This means her vote counts as three, right?
Shhh! Quiet before Breitbart finds o-
"LIBERAL CONSPIRACY: BLUES CAUGHT RED-HANDED FORCING UNBORN BABIES TO VOTE"
- shit.
FBI to reopen clinton email investigation over shocking voter fraud allegations
"BENGHAZI SQUARED: VOTER FRAUD EMAIL CONSPIRACY SPELLS BIG TROUBLE FOR JAILLARY"
I don't understand the massive Clinton drop on 538. One week before the election, she has led consistently in the polls, and leads in more states than she needs for 270. Even accounting for the chance of polling error or other unlikely events, shouldn't she be modelled way higher than this?
Besides, why is the race getting tighter now? Aside from Comey's bullshit, nothing came out recently, and by all accounts more email crap should not be changing anyone's minds at this point.
People who were bullshitting about voting third party are now actually coming up as trump voters. The race always tightens right before the end as pollsters switch from their crappier models to their "Ok serious this is our serious polls."
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
I don't understand the massive Clinton drop on 538. One week before the election, she has led consistently in the polls, and leads in more states than she needs for 270. Even accounting for the chance of polling error or other unlikely events, shouldn't she be modelled way higher than this?
Besides, why is the race getting tighter now? Aside from Comey's bullshit, nothing came out recently, and by all accounts more email crap should not be changing anyone's minds at this point.
all the red folk who had been saying they wouldn't vote trump are, in fact, voting trump.
I don't understand the massive Clinton drop on 538. One week before the election, she has led consistently in the polls, and leads in more states than she needs for 270. Even accounting for the chance of polling error or other unlikely events, shouldn't she be modelled way higher than this?
Besides, why is the race getting tighter now? Aside from Comey's bullshit, nothing came out recently, and by all accounts more email crap should not be changing anyone's minds at this point.
Tightening is inevitable Republicans getting over their nominee being a sexual predator and utterly unqualified for the job.
538's percentage is nonsense and has been for at least four years, their margin is fine.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
+1 for Clinton in Iowa. It felt good to vote against every R on the ticket. Now I need to find a way to get my wife, who is pregnant with twins and ready to pop any day, to the local library so she can vote. I should check and see if it's too late for a mail in ballot.
It's almost certainly too late at this point. The way it works here is you print out a form and mail it to your county auditor's office, then they mail you the ballot, then you fill it out and mail it back. Best case scenario there's 3 days of back and fourth in the mail assuming the bureaucracy is humming efficiently and there is roughly zero processing time on their end.. It's highly unlikely. Just get her to the polling station. Bring a bucket.
Bunch of red state polls (blue Texas you were a beautiful dream for like a week) have Trump putting them away, that looks like where the national tightening is coming from.
The question becomes does this red state movement mean the middle of the race is changing, or is it just R partisans coming home that always were going to.
It's a very precarious position for states like Nevada I think. PA would also have me worried except for the couple good polls released there recently.
Since that's been the only change in this race for like eight months, it's probably just Republicans coming home, yes. You need to relax.
So like a third of the total vote is already in in Nevada. Democrats are up 9% or so. They'd have to lose significantly on election day to lose the state.
Shrug, polling isn't great in a lot of states that you're locking dead to rights, since we just don't get enough polls from them. I may not be confident enough, but you're too confident.
Like, Colorado is propped up almost entirely by a 3 week old Qpiac poll. Otherwise she's in the margin of error on a more recent CBS poll from last week and that's it from real pollsters. Not at all comforting for a state that's supposed to be in Clinton's firewall. Especially as she can't even break 45% there even in the 2 way!
I don't understand the massive Clinton drop on 538. One week before the election, she has led consistently in the polls, and leads in more states than she needs for 270. Even accounting for the chance of polling error or other unlikely events, shouldn't she be modelled way higher than this?
Besides, why is the race getting tighter now? Aside from Comey's bullshit, nothing came out recently, and by all accounts more email crap should not be changing anyone's minds at this point.
all the red folk who had been saying they wouldn't vote trump are, in fact, voting trump.
In the end, party before country, morals, and eternal soul finally wins out.
Another interesting aspect of the trump sex tape is just how much Melania could potentially take him for. Trump has repeatedly given values for his brand and the naming rights of trump.
Melania could probably argue that he should be bound to those values... Which would mean that if Melania had a reasonable position of not wanting it, and trump routinely values his name as up to if not more than half of his net worth, Melania could get literally everything but his name in a divorce proceeding.
Goumindong on
+8
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EncA Fool with CompassionPronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered Userregular
Another interesting aspect of the trump sex tape is just how much Melania could potentially take him for. Trump has repeatedly given values for his brand and the naming rights of trump.
Melania could probably argue that he should be bound to those values... Which would mean that if Melania had a reasonable position of not wanting it, and trump routinely values his name as up to if not more than half of his net worth, Melania could get literally everything but his name in a divorce proceeding.
Thats assuming they dont have a prenup.
It's Trump, I'd assume she not only signed one but also an NDA before they got married.
I don't understand the massive Clinton drop on 538. One week before the election, she has led consistently in the polls, and leads in more states than she needs for 270. Even accounting for the chance of polling error or other unlikely events, shouldn't she be modelled way higher than this?
Besides, why is the race getting tighter now? Aside from Comey's bullshit, nothing came out recently, and by all accounts more email crap should not be changing anyone's minds at this point.
all the red folk who had been saying they wouldn't vote trump are, in fact, voting trump.
Yup. I'm still curious about GOTV efforts will contribute, and how those polls weigh "already voted" folks, or how the "already voted" folks even respond to pollsters at this point. Personally if I'd already voted I'd probably just disconnect my phone and block election info until November 8th, but then I have my own personal GOTV effort (friends and family) I need to ensure that day so may as well stay paranoid.
Bunch of red state polls (blue Texas you were a beautiful dream for like a week) have Trump putting them away, that looks like where the national tightening is coming from.
The question becomes does this red state movement mean the middle of the race is changing, or is it just R partisans coming home that always were going to.
It's a very precarious position for states like Nevada I think. PA would also have me worried except for the couple good polls released there recently.
The latter. Remember, there are a lot of Republicans that have gone through an existential crisis this election cycle, swearing to themselves they won't vote for Trump. But...they have spent their entire lives conditioned to believe that the worst Republican is better than the best Democrat. As much as they may hate Trump, they understand math. They're watching Fox news and listening to radio shows explain to them that as bad as Trump is, Hillary is worse and a vote for anyone other than Trump is a vote for her.
Deconditioning is very hard
Roz on
+2
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ElJeffeRoaming the streets, waving his mod gun around.Moderator, ClubPAMod Emeritus
There was a thing on Twitter a few days ago where they were comparing Obama's internal polls to the public tracking polls. The public tracking polls swung wildly all over the place in 2012, while the Obama polls had an extremely stable race with Obama around 51-52% for the entire race except for after four events:
the RNC, the DNC, the 47% tape, and the first debate. After each such event (except the RNC because the DNC was the next week) the race returned to that stable point. And then Obama got 51.1%.
Nothing I have seen from the Clinton campaign indicates they lack confidence and they're the same people. Also, GOP pollsters are telling reporters they see Trump behind, though they increasingly think they can keep the Senate (I doubt this).
Early voting also backs this up. The only issue is black turnout, which is down a little. In Ohio and North Carolina, this is recovering to 2012 levels. Florida needs some work. Making up for that is unprecedented Hispanic turnout. Historically, they have have < 50% turnout and this year it looks in the early voting data like that might change, which should make up for a drop in black turnout.
The problem is that it's pretty much impossible to make sure a single pollster is making all the correct assumptions, no matter how many dollars you throw at it. You can hire the best people and run weekly polls with a confidence interval of 99% and a MOE of +/- 1 and you can still be off by 5 if your likely voter screen makes a wrong assumption.
At best you can be sure that you're tracking the changes accurately. You can be pretty sure that you're five points up from last month, but it's very hard to know if every poll you've run is off by a few in the same direction.
Clinton's team acts confident? Good, they better, because they're professionals and that's what they're paid to do. They nailed the outcome in 2012? Awesome, there's a sample size of one.
I don't doubt that her team is the best in the business, but the unfortunate truth is that polls are, at best, a proxy measurement that tries to predict a complex future behavior. The election is not decided based on what the majority of people would like to see happen, it's decided based on actual votes. And that necessarily requires an element of guesstimating and finger crossing.
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
Bunch of red state polls (blue Texas you were a beautiful dream for like a week) have Trump putting them away, that looks like where the national tightening is coming from.
The question becomes does this red state movement mean the middle of the race is changing, or is it just R partisans coming home that always were going to.
It's a very precarious position for states like Nevada I think. PA would also have me worried except for the couple good polls released there recently.
Since that's been the only change in this race for like eight months, it's probably just Republicans coming home, yes. You need to relax.
So like a third of the total vote is already in in Nevada. Democrats are up 9% or so. They'd have to lose significantly on election day to lose the state.
Shrug, polling isn't great in a lot of states that you're locking dead to rights, since we just don't get enough polls from them. I may not be confident enough, but you're too confident.
Like, Colorado is propped up almost entirely by a 3 week old Qpiac poll. Otherwise she's in the margin of error on a more recent CBS poll from last week and that's it from real pollsters. Not at all comforting for a state that's supposed to be in Clinton's firewall. Especially as she can't even break 45% there even in the 2 way!
Check the voter registration data and early voting data in Colorado. Polls or no polls, those are plenty to tell us Colorado is off the board for Trump.
Democrats there in recent years have trailed in early voting but won anyway. After dominating new voter registration all year, they have flipped that to a clear lead with 40% of expected turnout already cast.
This is what we are talking about when we say there are clear indicators that Silver's model does not account for that counter-indicate a Trump-favoring polling miss.
Another interesting aspect of the trump sex tape is just how much Melania could potentially take him for. Trump has repeatedly given values for his brand and the naming rights of trump.
Melania could probably argue that he should be bound to those values... Which would mean that if Melania had a reasonable position of not wanting it, and trump routinely values his name as up to if not more than half of his net worth, Melania could get literally everything but his name in a divorce proceeding.
Thats assuming they dont have a prenup.
It's Trump, I'd assume she not only signed one but also an NDA before they got married.
No it does not assume no prenup; infidelity would negate the prenup. That is why a sex tape is leverage in the first place. That is why Trump was so adamant in divorce proceedings with his first wife that he was not having an affair.
Google "trump Russia" it's all stuff about how the fbi investigated the server and found no ties and it's probably no big deal
Google "Hillary email" and you don't find anything similar to trying to reasonably diffuse it. Similar to the Clinton foundation.
Like I legit do not understand the media. Id say right now trump Russia server and Hillary email stuff are exactly the same level of "true" and one is 100000 times scarier and yet that is hand waived or attempted to be diffused by the media. Meanwhile Clinton gets blasted because the republican fbi director said the word email again.
Like what the hell are we doing as a country!?
It's really frustrating- my brother keeps posting "Hillary committed treason!" stuff and when I went to google to find shit to shut it down, googling any combination of "Hillary Clinton Treason etc etc" was just recursive sharing on blogs and news sites about how she MIGHT HAVE COMMITTED TREASON BECAUSE BENGHAZI EMAILS and then I gave up because it isn't worth it.
The best time to argue with these people is between elections when they're not emotionally invested in a specific outcome.
While the election is still ongoing, it's better to focus your time on GOTV.
+1
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TL DRNot at all confident in his reflexive opinions of thingsRegistered Userregular
That FBI Twitter account is weird. Inactive from June 2015 until Sunday, and since then a release about Fred C. Trump, lots of boring/procedural tweets, one about Tesla, and 2 about Clinton stuff.
Amusingly, as the thread's current designated worrier, this doesn't bother me too much. North Carolina is catching up to 2012 totals now that there are actually polling places open (yay disenfranchisement), and while Florida is down, Hispanics are way up and breaking harder for Clinton than they did in the past.
On the other hand, she's been outperforming Obama with Latinos, who make up a larger percentage of the electorate in New Mexico, Nevada, Florida, and Colorado among other states.
I don't understand the massive Clinton drop on 538. One week before the election, she has led consistently in the polls, and leads in more states than she needs for 270. Even accounting for the chance of polling error or other unlikely events, shouldn't she be modelled way higher than this?
Besides, why is the race getting tighter now? Aside from Comey's bullshit, nothing came out recently, and by all accounts more email crap should not be changing anyone's minds at this point.
all the red folk who had been saying they wouldn't vote trump are, in fact, voting trump.
Yup. I'm still curious about GOTV efforts will contribute, and how those polls weigh "already voted" folks, or how the "already voted" folks even respond to pollsters at this point. Personally if I'd already voted I'd probably just disconnect my phone and block election info until November 8th, but then I have my own personal GOTV effort (friends and family) I need to ensure that day so may as well stay paranoid.
Nah, fuck that, I can't wait to tell a pollster call how I'm voting/voted. Every little tiny bit I can do to make things seem hopeless for Trump supporters.
Posts
Polling averages were much better for Romney than they are for Trump. Final RCP average in 2012 was 48.8 to 48.1. The actual result was 51.1 to 47.2. RCP average right now is 47.5 to 45.3.
Best case without really weird things happening (like Texas) is I think 378. Which is Obama 2012 + NC, Georgia, Arizona, Alaska, and NE-02.
Has she ever been up in Ohio or Iowa?
Florida seems to be a tossup.
Pretty tight either way but fingers crossed
Wheelchair? (I'm not being snarky)
Also SUPER GRATZ!
Yes to both. They're close, with a good turnout operation she could win both.
What I think is the most likely scenario is Clinton 323. Obama 2012 + NC - Ohio - Iowa. With Florida going for Clinton finally on like Friday next week.
This means her vote counts as three, right?
One of the twins is a Trump supporter so it negates the Hillary vote of the other.
Law and Order ≠ Justice
ACNH Island Isla Cero: DA-3082-2045-4142
Captain of the SES Comptroller of the State
Shhh! Quiet before Breitbart finds o-
"LIBERAL CONSPIRACY: BLUES CAUGHT RED-HANDED FORCING UNBORN BABIES TO VOTE"
- shit.
If you rearrange the letters "FBI" just so, it spells out "KGB"
FBI to reopen clinton email investigation over shocking voter fraud allegations
Besides, why is the race getting tighter now? Aside from Comey's bullshit, nothing came out recently, and by all accounts more email crap should not be changing anyone's minds at this point.
"BENGHAZI SQUARED: VOTER FRAUD EMAIL CONSPIRACY SPELLS BIG TROUBLE FOR JAILLARY"
noooooooo
People who were bullshitting about voting third party are now actually coming up as trump voters. The race always tightens right before the end as pollsters switch from their crappier models to their "Ok serious this is our serious polls."
pleasepaypreacher.net
all the red folk who had been saying they wouldn't vote trump are, in fact, voting trump.
Tightening is inevitable Republicans getting over their nominee being a sexual predator and utterly unqualified for the job.
538's percentage is nonsense and has been for at least four years, their margin is fine.
Virginia's on lock at this point. She's been up 6 consistently for months, pretty much regardless of what new information comes out.
Trump doesn't play well in NoVA
It's almost certainly too late at this point. The way it works here is you print out a form and mail it to your county auditor's office, then they mail you the ballot, then you fill it out and mail it back. Best case scenario there's 3 days of back and fourth in the mail assuming the bureaucracy is humming efficiently and there is roughly zero processing time on their end.. It's highly unlikely. Just get her to the polling station. Bring a bucket.
Shrug, polling isn't great in a lot of states that you're locking dead to rights, since we just don't get enough polls from them. I may not be confident enough, but you're too confident.
Like, Colorado is propped up almost entirely by a 3 week old Qpiac poll. Otherwise she's in the margin of error on a more recent CBS poll from last week and that's it from real pollsters. Not at all comforting for a state that's supposed to be in Clinton's firewall. Especially as she can't even break 45% there even in the 2 way!
In the end, party before country, morals, and eternal soul finally wins out.
Melania could probably argue that he should be bound to those values... Which would mean that if Melania had a reasonable position of not wanting it, and trump routinely values his name as up to if not more than half of his net worth, Melania could get literally everything but his name in a divorce proceeding.
Thats assuming they dont have a prenup.
It's Trump, I'd assume she not only signed one but also an NDA before they got married.
Yup. I'm still curious about GOTV efforts will contribute, and how those polls weigh "already voted" folks, or how the "already voted" folks even respond to pollsters at this point. Personally if I'd already voted I'd probably just disconnect my phone and block election info until November 8th, but then I have my own personal GOTV effort (friends and family) I need to ensure that day so may as well stay paranoid.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/black-voter-turnout-north-carolina-ohio-florida_us_5818c782e4b0990edc33acfc
*purchases more whiskey and cyanide capsules*
The latter. Remember, there are a lot of Republicans that have gone through an existential crisis this election cycle, swearing to themselves they won't vote for Trump. But...they have spent their entire lives conditioned to believe that the worst Republican is better than the best Democrat. As much as they may hate Trump, they understand math. They're watching Fox news and listening to radio shows explain to them that as bad as Trump is, Hillary is worse and a vote for anyone other than Trump is a vote for her.
Deconditioning is very hard
The problem is that it's pretty much impossible to make sure a single pollster is making all the correct assumptions, no matter how many dollars you throw at it. You can hire the best people and run weekly polls with a confidence interval of 99% and a MOE of +/- 1 and you can still be off by 5 if your likely voter screen makes a wrong assumption.
At best you can be sure that you're tracking the changes accurately. You can be pretty sure that you're five points up from last month, but it's very hard to know if every poll you've run is off by a few in the same direction.
Clinton's team acts confident? Good, they better, because they're professionals and that's what they're paid to do. They nailed the outcome in 2012? Awesome, there's a sample size of one.
I don't doubt that her team is the best in the business, but the unfortunate truth is that polls are, at best, a proxy measurement that tries to predict a complex future behavior. The election is not decided based on what the majority of people would like to see happen, it's decided based on actual votes. And that necessarily requires an element of guesstimating and finger crossing.
Check the voter registration data and early voting data in Colorado. Polls or no polls, those are plenty to tell us Colorado is off the board for Trump.
Democrats there in recent years have trailed in early voting but won anyway. After dominating new voter registration all year, they have flipped that to a clear lead with 40% of expected turnout already cast.
This is what we are talking about when we say there are clear indicators that Silver's model does not account for that counter-indicate a Trump-favoring polling miss.
No it does not assume no prenup; infidelity would negate the prenup. That is why a sex tape is leverage in the first place. That is why Trump was so adamant in divorce proceedings with his first wife that he was not having an affair.
The best time to argue with these people is between elections when they're not emotionally invested in a specific outcome.
While the election is still ongoing, it's better to focus your time on GOTV.
https://twitter.com/FBIRecordsVault?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Amusingly, as the thread's current designated worrier, this doesn't bother me too much. North Carolina is catching up to 2012 totals now that there are actually polling places open (yay disenfranchisement), and while Florida is down, Hispanics are way up and breaking harder for Clinton than they did in the past.
On the other hand, she's been outperforming Obama with Latinos, who make up a larger percentage of the electorate in New Mexico, Nevada, Florida, and Colorado among other states.
Nah, fuck that, I can't wait to tell a pollster call how I'm voting/voted. Every little tiny bit I can do to make things seem hopeless for Trump supporters.