So if that timeline is correct, and it looks right to me
Either the bill dies, or the insurance industry is pushed to collapse.
timeline is missing conference committee option after senate passes something not the same as house
house says no to senate amendment, then house and senate delegations meet and amend it further, then both houses vote on that without amendments
I have real trouble seeing the House voting for "Crash the Economy" if only because the Health Insurers will quickly stop sitting things out if that's what passes the Senate.
Of course I wouldn't put it past Ryan to get the bill from the Senate at 8:00 and holding a vote at 8:01...
Eliminating the Mandate would only collapse the individual market, not insurance generally. Though, even then, it might not if they keep the subsidies &c. as they are in the "skinny" repeal that just targets the mandate and device tax. It's not like the mandate has been all that strictly enforced so far anyhow.
So if that timeline is correct, and it looks right to me
Either the bill dies, or the insurance industry is pushed to collapse.
timeline is missing conference committee option after senate passes something not the same as house
house says no to senate amendment, then house and senate delegations meet and amend it further, then both houses vote on that without amendments
I have real trouble seeing the House voting for "Crash the Economy" if only because the Health Insurers will quickly stop sitting things out if that's what passes the Senate.
Of course I wouldn't put it past Ryan to get the bill from the Senate at 8:00 and holding a vote at 8:01...
The House already voted for crashing the economy, it's why the bill is in the Senate in the first place. The only debate that's going to happen once it goes back to the House is whether it's damaging enough.
Just remember that half the people you meet are below average intelligence.
Eliminating the Mandate would only collapse the individual market, not insurance generally. Though, even then, it might not if they keep the subsidies &c. as they are in the "skinny" repeal that just targets the mandate and device tax. It's not like the mandate has been all that strictly enforced so far anyhow.
Well it's not just the individual mandate but also the employer one that was out of the "skinny" repeal. With the addition that they can't include the community rating modifications to allow for the gouging of old folks I do not think the insurers are going to be pleased with such a bill.
Eliminating the Mandate would only collapse the individual market, not insurance generally. Though, even then, it might not if they keep the subsidies &c. as they are in the "skinny" repeal that just targets the mandate and device tax. It's not like the mandate has been all that strictly enforced so far anyhow.
Well it's not just the individual mandate but also the employer one that was out of the "skinny" repeal. With the addition that they can't include the community rating modifications to allow for the gouging of old folks I do not think the insurers are going to be pleased with such a bill.
Oh they'll hate it, but it might not cause a death spiral. Basically just another big premium hike for uncertainty sake, and maybe okay.
Again, assuming the subsidies stay which will eat the increase for everyone under 400% poverty. So it'd just screw middle-upper middle class sole proprietorships, gig workers, and small businesses.
they go and vote on a bunch of bills in succession or some shit. I'm sure they will cobble something together that kills enough poors to satisfy 50 republicans
There is an interpretation of McCain's actions and statements that doesn't end with the conclusion that he's purely a lap dog. Please bear in mind that I'm not pushing this interpretation, not do I necessarily believe it in light of his past actions, but I can totally see it fitting his personal self image as a principled maverick dedicated to the ideals of the Senate as he views them. Here goes;
McCain voted yes on the motion to open debate because that is what you are supposed to do with important bills; debate them. His expression of frustration with the process so far was genuine and he's doing what he views as the right thing to get the chamber back on track. He has also said that he doesn't support the bill in it's current form and doesn't really expect to, which in his head probably makes what he did today even more principled.
I'm personally expecting him to find like a chair that is missing brain mass over the next few days, but this is an alternate explanation for his vote and statements in combination.
I guess what I find so disingenuous is that nothing is stopping them from debating before the motion to proceed. Indeed they could have meetings galore at any time, and be constantly debating what to do next! The only reason to vote yes on the motion to proceed is if you want to keep most or all of the current legislation on the table. The MTP forces the conversation to narrow, and puts a time limit on things, which means it is very difficult to significantly deviate from the current proposals.
To whit, if you voted yes today, you are either in favor of all or most of the current bills or care more about perception than reality. Neither leaves the supposed moderate republicans in a good light. Not that it will matter anyway if they vote some shitburger bill through.
Jebus314 on
"The world is a mess, and I just need to rule it" - Dr Horrible
man, y'all are makin me look like a shiney friendly optimist today.
Kinda sucks that healthcare is about to get turbo fucked and there's nothing we can really do to stop it from happening.
elections have consequences
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HedgethornAssociate Professor of Historical Hobby HorsesIn the Lions' DenRegistered Userregular
edited July 2017
They're voting on the BCRA (with Cruz amendment, maybe) text from a couple weeks ago that got opposed from both the moderates and the far right. But the parlimentarian ruled it'd need 60 votes, so it's super far from passing.
Interestingly, Cotton, Corker, and Graham all voted against it (joining Collins, Murkowski, Heller, Moran, and Rand Paul). I'm surprised Capito voted in favor, given how much cover there was for her to oppose this.
Edit: Portman is also a bit of a surprising yes. I never would have expected there to be a bill that Lindsay Graham and Bob Corker opposed that Portman and Capito supported.
Edit 2: Either Mike Lee changed his vote, or maybe the Times had it wrong briefly, because now he's listed as a no as well.
Enough is Enough: Stop TrumpCare
TRUMPCARE STATE OF PLAY
Say it with us: this is not over. We lost a procedural vote today that puts Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell that much closer to the finish line. But he still has a huge lift on his hands: convince 50 Senators to vote for a complete dumpster fire of a bill—a bill that will cause 22-32 million people to lose their insurance, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, and a bill that at least 10 senators are on record as opposing in some previous iteration.
The process on this has been horrifying. No hearings. No CBO score. Not even final guidance from the Senate Parliamentarian on whether the bill follows the Senate rules.
Usually a vote for the MTP signals support for the underlying bill. But senators literally do not know which bill they’re taking a final vote on—which means the outcome is anyone’s guess. The vote on final passage will be Thursday or Friday, so we need you RIGHT NOW.
There's some info and resources on that page. But they've also set up a call list resource, to poke people in swing states.
Senator McConnell managed to buy off enough Republican Senators to get the votes he needed for the “motion to proceed” (MTP) on TrumpCare, but he faces another hurdle: he needs to get 50 Senators to actually vote for the bill itself.
The final TrumpCare vote is imminent and we need all hands on deck—22 million people’s access to health care is at risk. This fight is going to come down to a couple of Senators: Capito and Heller.
If you live in a state where your Senator has committed to voting no on TrumpCare, it’s time to lend a hand to Indivisibles in West Virginia and Nevada. Have 10 minutes? Have 10 hours? You can help!
We’re calling constituents in these keys states to make sure they’re aware of the devastating impact TrumpCare would have and asking them to call their Senator on the spot. Sign up below to get started!
McCain voting for the Cruz amended version of the BRCA doesn't bode well. I doubt he's 5th dimensional chessing it by trying to turn the bill into one that needs 60 votes.
I would very much love to see a list that estimates how many will lose insurance by state so that those numbers can be thrown as rocks at senators very specifically. Does such a thing exist?
I would very much love to see a list that estimates how many will lose insurance by state so that those numbers can be thrown as rocks at senators very specifically. Does such a thing exist?
Not until we know what the final bill is.
There's no plan, there's no race to be run
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
Have we talked about how Trump went to WV to shame and threaten Capito into voting yes, and it worked?
This is a huge win for him in terms of being able to threaten Congress.
Also, sadly, I was right about not counting McConnell out. He's way too good at this shit.
Threatened what, exactly?
Unspecified "she'd better do it" with vague but dark overtones, in front of a crowd of cheering supporters, alongside Price.
I doubt it was the only factor but a popular president can cause all kinds of problems with a candidate, even if there aren't many places Trump can claim that.
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
I don't think credit is the proper word, but Trump has had a huge impact on me personally when it comes to investing energy in paying attention to political fuckitry. I'm just exhausted by Trump, McConnell and Ryan at all fucking times.
I'm not willing to consider it some sort of master plan that they all shit their pants so often that it's no longer funny or appalling... It's just gross and I don't want to watch anymore. I'm finding I tune out all of the speculation and early bird analysis and wait for official statements and actual votes which may seem perfectly reasonable but I used to enjoy reading about the workings of government. Turning on the TV in the break room at work and seeing any of the aforementioned bags of spiteful callous shit makes me angry. Not in a "The fuck they do this time?" sort of way. That smirkish sort of laughing at the ridiculous ended months ago when we were all certain there was no way they'd get the votes by any legitimate means.
So here we sit. I'm a little ashamed to admit but at this point I think letting the GOP take healthcare away from friends and family is the only thing that will motivate them. The only way we get to protect our vulnerable is to rock the midterms and POTUS cycle to majority in house and Senate and then shove it up the 'pubs asshole like a pinecone. I'd almost prefer they kill the ACA in a single vote they have to own, to watching it die of legislative leprosy.
Democrats in Congress need to be pissed off. I'm done with the golfclaps and frowny faces conveying what healthcare means to the people who rely on them. They're trying to earn political capital in a currency that no longer exists. The next few days need some emotional response.
I'm still for fighting for keep health care (gonna call my Senators tomorrow). I'm not hopeful, but we can make sure the process of taking away healthcare for tens of mllions of people is as painful for the Pubs as we can possibly make it. And if we can't save it, I will definitely be looking forward for it being used as a cudgel against everyone who votes yes.
Have we talked about how Trump went to WV to shame and threaten Capito into voting yes, and it worked?
This is a huge win for him in terms of being able to threaten Congress.
Also, sadly, I was right about not counting McConnell out. He's way too good at this shit.
Again, there are numbers games going on here.
Capito in particular is walking a thin line between 'I know this bill sucks for WV' and 'WV voters like Trump and support this bill'. A meaningless 'Yes' vote here is the best case scenario - gets credit for 'Yes' with voters, while knowing that there's enough 'No' votes already banked that the bill will not pass.
The question is what her vote will be if one of the versions is 49-50 without her. Otherwise, I completely expect her to be a 'yes'.
Posts
timeline is missing conference committee option after senate passes something not the same as house
house says no to senate amendment, then house and senate delegations meet and amend it further, then both houses vote on that without amendments
yes that is the long and the short of it
Kinda sucks that healthcare is about to get turbo fucked and there's nothing we can really do to stop it from happening.
I have real trouble seeing the House voting for "Crash the Economy" if only because the Health Insurers will quickly stop sitting things out if that's what passes the Senate.
Of course I wouldn't put it past Ryan to get the bill from the Senate at 8:00 and holding a vote at 8:01...
The House already voted for crashing the economy, it's why the bill is in the Senate in the first place. The only debate that's going to happen once it goes back to the House is whether it's damaging enough.
Well it's not just the individual mandate but also the employer one that was out of the "skinny" repeal. With the addition that they can't include the community rating modifications to allow for the gouging of old folks I do not think the insurers are going to be pleased with such a bill.
Oh they'll hate it, but it might not cause a death spiral. Basically just another big premium hike for uncertainty sake, and maybe okay.
Again, assuming the subsidies stay which will eat the increase for everyone under 400% poverty. So it'd just screw middle-upper middle class sole proprietorships, gig workers, and small businesses.
Thought that was tomorrow?
There are 6 republican nos.
I'm not sure how this works.
edit: oh it's just an amendment
They're evidently voting on one of the Amendments now, but it's a 60 vote margin.
The vote tonight was expected to fail and then they will now move on to a different version with amendments that might pass.
I guess what I find so disingenuous is that nothing is stopping them from debating before the motion to proceed. Indeed they could have meetings galore at any time, and be constantly debating what to do next! The only reason to vote yes on the motion to proceed is if you want to keep most or all of the current legislation on the table. The MTP forces the conversation to narrow, and puts a time limit on things, which means it is very difficult to significantly deviate from the current proposals.
To whit, if you voted yes today, you are either in favor of all or most of the current bills or care more about perception than reality. Neither leaves the supposed moderate republicans in a good light. Not that it will matter anyway if they vote some shitburger bill through.
elections have consequences
Interestingly, Cotton, Corker, and Graham all voted against it (joining Collins, Murkowski, Heller, Moran, and Rand Paul). I'm surprised Capito voted in favor, given how much cover there was for her to oppose this.
Edit: Portman is also a bit of a surprising yes. I never would have expected there to be a bill that Lindsay Graham and Bob Corker opposed that Portman and Capito supported.
Edit 2: Either Mike Lee changed his vote, or maybe the Times had it wrong briefly, because now he's listed as a no as well.
An overview:
https://www.indivisibleguide.com/stop-trumpcare/
There's some info and resources on that page. But they've also set up a call list resource, to poke people in swing states.
FOR BLUE STATE RESIDENTS:
https://www.indivisibleguide.com/hubdialer-signup/
You'd figure he'd at least wait for a fig leaf of the bill changing slightly so he could go "Now this! This bill I can vote on."
Not until we know what the final bill is.
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
Despite his office putting out a press release this morning saying the bill was "a shell of a bill" and that he'd never vote for it.
Guy has about 6-24 months left in the tank, even if he had any fucks to give way back pre-Presidential run, he's officially out of them now.
~ Buckaroo Banzai
These are amendments, not the AHCA, so technically he isn't violating his hypocritical speech.
Funny, right?
This is a huge win for him in terms of being able to threaten Congress.
Also, sadly, I was right about not counting McConnell out. He's way too good at this shit.
McCain: Hold my goblet of peasant blood.
WV is, to my memory, the state where he's polling highest at. I'm not sure other Republicans will make the same calculus as Capito.
Unspecified "she'd better do it" with vague but dark overtones, in front of a crowd of cheering supporters, alongside Price.
I doubt it was the only factor but a popular president can cause all kinds of problems with a candidate, even if there aren't many places Trump can claim that.
Wait, was this his Boy Scout speech?
I'm not willing to consider it some sort of master plan that they all shit their pants so often that it's no longer funny or appalling... It's just gross and I don't want to watch anymore. I'm finding I tune out all of the speculation and early bird analysis and wait for official statements and actual votes which may seem perfectly reasonable but I used to enjoy reading about the workings of government. Turning on the TV in the break room at work and seeing any of the aforementioned bags of spiteful callous shit makes me angry. Not in a "The fuck they do this time?" sort of way. That smirkish sort of laughing at the ridiculous ended months ago when we were all certain there was no way they'd get the votes by any legitimate means.
So here we sit. I'm a little ashamed to admit but at this point I think letting the GOP take healthcare away from friends and family is the only thing that will motivate them. The only way we get to protect our vulnerable is to rock the midterms and POTUS cycle to majority in house and Senate and then shove it up the 'pubs asshole like a pinecone. I'd almost prefer they kill the ACA in a single vote they have to own, to watching it die of legislative leprosy.
Democrats in Congress need to be pissed off. I'm done with the golfclaps and frowny faces conveying what healthcare means to the people who rely on them. They're trying to earn political capital in a currency that no longer exists. The next few days need some emotional response.
Again, there are numbers games going on here.
Capito in particular is walking a thin line between 'I know this bill sucks for WV' and 'WV voters like Trump and support this bill'. A meaningless 'Yes' vote here is the best case scenario - gets credit for 'Yes' with voters, while knowing that there's enough 'No' votes already banked that the bill will not pass.
The question is what her vote will be if one of the versions is 49-50 without her. Otherwise, I completely expect her to be a 'yes'.