ElJeffeNot actually a mod.Roaming the streets, waving his gun around.Moderator, ClubPAmod
Who, Warren? If she doesn't win this year, I expect she won't run again in 2024.
Or do you mean Harris? I see her trying again in 2024 or 2028.
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To be fair to Harris, I think "I would like to be president and probably would do a decent job" is a pretty common reason to run for president. I think it's why Gore ran for president in 2000, and why Kerry ran in 2004 (coupled with "...and I'd definitely be better than the guy in office.)
But right now, there's a huge field, and regardless of whether she'd be decent (and I believe she would be), there are candidates I think would be much better. And why vote for decent when you could vote for much better?
Warren doing well makes sense. The party base is more left wing than ever and while I have obvious reservations about how left wing she really is that aren't worth getting in to again, she can fill that niche but she also hasn't done much to alienate Clinton voters.
I think she will take Iowa and everyone will pay attention like 2008.
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lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
Warren doing well makes sense. A lot of the folks who are suddenly really paying attention on the Left came to it through OWS. A bunch of us were smacked to all hell in 2008, And Warren has been on TV screaming about it since then. She's been in our consciousness since CFPB was a thing.
This isn't saying that Bernie hasn't been, but it makes sense that we're seeing both of them do well, I think
syndalisGetting ClassyOn the WallRegistered User, Loves Apple Productsregular
So the current math, in my mind, is as follows.
There is a chance warren can win iowa, and a similarly sized chance that biden can. Still time for it to change, but right now her lead in that state is within the margin of error.
If she wins, that could bump her up in a way that properly threatens biden's lead. If she loses to biden, he starts solidifying his stance as the “electable” candidate.
If these numbers remain similar as we get closer to Iowa, I really think the safer move if the more left/progressive side of the party wants a shot at it, would be for either sanders or warren to give as many of their votes as possible to the other by bowing out. If all three go into Iowa and Biden wins it, there is a very good shot this turns into Biden v. Trump.
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syndalisGetting ClassyOn the WallRegistered User, Loves Apple Productsregular
Though, to be honest, my preference would be for Biden to see the light and drop out, which would likely elevate a bunch of the folks in the second tier and give younger voices in the party, even moderate ones, a chance to make their case that isn't being drowned out by the elder statesman thinking it is his time.
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When Biden eventually loses, I hope he does so gracefully.
Despite all his faults, I think he’s trying to better the country and I’d be remiss if he decides to scorch earth when he eventually fizzles out and doesn’t endorse someone.
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When Biden eventually loses, I hope he does so gracefully.
Despite all his faults, I think he’s trying to better the country and I’d be remiss if he decides to scorch earth when he eventually fizzles out and doesn’t endorse someone.
Hopefully, but I'm getting an increasingly reactionary "I'm the savior who will protect the Party from the young!" vibe off Biden. I could see him ending up a Lieberman, spouting off on Fox News about how the Democrats left him.
When Biden eventually loses, I hope he does so gracefully.
Despite all his faults, I think he’s trying to better the country and I’d be remiss if he decides to scorch earth when he eventually fizzles out and doesn’t endorse someone.
I think he'd be graceful, because his heart doesn't really seem to be in running, so I think he and his family would be secretly relieved. He'd feel he did his duty, and the voters decided.
Nate Silver has an article up on 538 today about Biden. The thrust of it is that nationwide, Biden is not suffering from a support/enthusiasm gap, but he is in Iowa. It could be because of demographics there (Biden tends to do better with older people and black people), because he has been campaigning there for a while and enthusiasm dips when people pay attention to him, or some combination thereof.
But it’s dangerous for his campaign because if he loses Iowa to, say, Warren, other states may see him as less electable.
When Biden eventually loses, I hope he does so gracefully.
Despite all his faults, I think he’s trying to better the country and I’d be remiss if he decides to scorch earth when he eventually fizzles out and doesn’t endorse someone.
I think it’s a mistake to say Biden losing is inevitable. He has led in the polls since his campaign started and after gaffes started stacking up it hasn’t wavered. I’m sure a lot of Republicans were sure Trump was going to flame out too and I don’t want to assume the same of Joe.
When Biden eventually loses, I hope he does so gracefully.
Despite all his faults, I think he’s trying to better the country and I’d be remiss if he decides to scorch earth when he eventually fizzles out and doesn’t endorse someone.
I think it’s a mistake to say Biden losing is inevitable. He has led in the polls since his campaign started and after gaffes started stacking up it hasn’t wavered. I’m sure a lot of Republicans were sure Trump was going to flame out too and I don’t want to assume the same of Joe.
I’m being optimistic until I can’t.
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Does Warren get a quasi-home state bump in NH, or is that all Bernie’s?
I could see Warren finishing 1 or 2 in Iowa, Bernie 1 and Warren 2 in NH, then if Bernie can get a win in SC with Warren polling a close 3rd, all the shine of “electability” comes off Biden.
Even if you were an anti Bernie/full in on Warren supporter, you want Bernie in this race through the first part of this race.
1.) You want Warren to win in Iowa on her own strengths
2.) You want to kill any narrative about Bernie being sabotaged or blackmailed/bought out of the race in the crib. You want him to exit at a point where his path to winning the primary doesn't look great. Note my actual worry in this case isn't from genuine liberals or socialist but the kind of shit the Russians or 4 Chan would love to stir up in the aftermath
3.) Most Bernie voters second choice started as Biden, likely due to their shared high name recognition. You want Warren to solidify/replace him in this regard first.
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Even if Biden ekes out a win in Iowa, it's not winner-take-all, so close second and third place candidates will take home almost as many delegates as the winner.
This is the problem with being the frontrunner from the time you enter the race. You have nowhere to go but down, and everybody else has nowhere to go but up. If Biden loses Iowa, that's going to do some serious damage to his inevitability/electability narrative going forward. If he wins, but doesn't win decisively, his campaign looks like it's only holding on to the lead because there are so many competitors.
I guess it isn't impossible for Biden to consolidate a lead when other people drop out, but Morning Consult shows that, for example, Harris' supporters' second choice is tied between Warren and Biden, so if anything an early Harris drop (not likely) would have Warren pushing well past Bernie and comfortably into second place.
Weirdly, more Sanders supporters have Biden as a second choice than any other candidate, but Warren supporters prefer Sanders as a second choice. If I had to guess, the 20% of Warren supporters that have Harris as a second choice is contrasting sharply with the 7% of Sanders supporters who feel the same. Looks to me like all the Bernie supporters that have a center-left second choice candidate vastly prefer Biden over Harris.
Warren manages to come off as for major changes rather than going to some idealic pre-2016 status quo without making it into some moot argument over socialism and capitalism.
Weirdly, more Sanders supporters have Biden as a second choice than any other candidate, but Warren supporters prefer Sanders as a second choice. If I had to guess, the 20% of Warren supporters that have Harris as a second choice is contrasting sharply with the 7% of Sanders supporters who feel the same. Looks to me like all the Bernie supporters that have a center-left second choice candidate vastly prefer Biden over Harris.
It is only weird if you think most primary voters are primarily ideological voters. Biden is well known and that name recognition is huge and had fairly good press in the past.
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
Biden has supposedly been downplaying the importance of Iowa, which is a good sign when combined with what I’ve been hearing about Warren’s campaign build out there. Figure that NH will go to Warren and Bernie too and South Carolina will probably be the do or die contest for Biden.
Warren needs to gain Black voters, Biden needs to keep them, and Bernie needs to get some of that momentum that Warren has been building. My take is that Booker or Harris could end up as the key player here by dropping out after NH or SC and throwing their support to one of the top three. That has the potential to give Biden a commanding lead or to put Bernie or Warren in a solid second place, meaning the other would need to drop out to advance their policies.
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As you move from the least sexist to the most sexist Democratic voter, the likelihood of voting for Biden rises by 19 percentage points — and decreases for Warren by 24 points. Strikingly, while sexism correlates with support for Biden regardless of a voter’s gender, the dynamic works differently in the case of Sanders: Sexist men prefer Sanders more than non-sexists do, but women who hold sexist views do not gravitate to him.
Anti-black racial resentment also dictates, in different ways, preferences for Biden, Warren and Harris. All else being equal, Biden’s vote share increases by 27 points going from the least to the most racially resentful primary voter. Meanwhile, more racially progressive Democrats — especially racially progressive whites — side heavily with Warren, which makes sense, given her messages on the campaign trail, such as explicitly calling the U.S. criminal justice system racist. Anti-black prejudice, not surprisingly, dampens support for the leading black candidate, Harris. It appears not to affect backing for Sanders.
Biden has supposedly been downplaying the importance of Iowa, which is a good sign when combined with what I’ve been hearing about Warren’s campaign build out there. Figure that NH will go to Warren and Bernie too and South Carolina will probably be the do or die contest for Biden.
Warren needs to gain Black voters, Biden needs to keep them, and Bernie needs to get some of that momentum that Warren has been building. My take is that Booker or Harris could end up as the key player here by dropping out after NH or SC and throwing their support to one of the top three. That has the potential to give Biden a commanding lead or to put Bernie or Warren in a solid second place, meaning the other would need to drop out to advance their policies.
If Biden through some means or another loses three of the first four primaries (holds on, but underperforms in South Carolina) then I'll feel pretty good about things trending towards him not making a huge splash on Super Tuesday since his narrative will be shattered.
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Shortytouching the meatIntergalactic Cool CourtRegistered Userregular
the notion of being a Bernie supporter with Biden as your number two is so completely foreign to me
Warren manages to come off as for major changes rather than going to some idealic pre-2016 status quo without making it into some moot argument over socialism and capitalism.
I think her having a plan for everything is a big part of that. One of the stereotypes for socialism is promising all these great government benefits without having given any thought on how to pay for it (or it relies heavily on MMT or something else outside the norm,) but Warren has obviously given a lot of thought on how to do so.
Warren manages to come off as for major changes rather than going to some idealic pre-2016 status quo without making it into some moot argument over socialism and capitalism.
I think her having a plan for everything is a big part of that. One of the stereotypes for socialism is promising all these great government benefits without having given any thought on how to pay for it (or it relies heavily on MMT or something else outside the norm,) but Warren has obviously given a lot of thought on how to do so.
A lot of her plans have really dodgy funding math
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Shortytouching the meatIntergalactic Cool CourtRegistered Userregular
that's not really a huge downside for me, frankly
if we can figure out how to throw billions more at the DoD every year, we can figure out how to pay for things that are actually good and desirable when the time comes
the notion of being a Bernie supporter with Biden as your number two is so completely foreign to me
those people don't know what they want
That screams identity politics to me much more than either's position on, well, anything. They want the safe old white guy candidate, because presidents are old white guys.
if we can figure out how to throw billions more at the DoD every year, we can figure out how to pay for things that are actually good and desirable when the time comes
Yeah I dont really care that much, and Ive certainly argued agaisnt campaign by white paper before.
I just think theyre employing a kind of competence through attrition as a marketing strategy
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Shortytouching the meatIntergalactic Cool CourtRegistered Userregular
the idea of looking at Bernie and thinking "yes this is the safest option" is also foreign to me
the notion of being a Bernie supporter with Biden as your number two is so completely foreign to me
those people don't know what they want
That screams identity politics to me much more than either's position on, well, anything. They want the safe old white guy candidate, because presidents are old white guys.
I think maybe given whats going on in the country moving past his jewishness straight to white guy isnt something we should be doing.
it's conspicuous that there isn't a single personin this thread who actually likes joe biden and thinks he'd be a good nominee. we have more beto guys than biden guys
By that logic Trump will lose every state though. We are not a representative sample
Does Warren get a quasi-home state bump in NH, or is that all Bernie’s?
I could see Warren finishing 1 or 2 in Iowa, Bernie 1 and Warren 2 in NH, then if Bernie can get a win in SC with Warren polling a close 3rd, all the shine of “electability” comes off Biden.
Most NH ppl are much more MA adjacent or work in MA. I would strongly suspect (and polling supports this I believe) she would win pretty handily.
the notion of being a Bernie supporter with Biden as your number two is so completely foreign to me
those people don't know what they want
That screams identity politics to me much more than either's position on, well, anything. They want the safe old white guy candidate, because presidents are old white guys.
I think maybe given whats going on in the country moving past his jewishness straight to white guy isnt something we should be doing.
Undoubtedly, but when picturing voters who see Biden 1, Bernie 2, I don't see voters that are looking at issues so much as looking for safe options to beat Trump and be President.
the notion of being a Bernie supporter with Biden as your number two is so completely foreign to me
those people don't know what they want
That screams identity politics to me much more than either's position on, well, anything. They want the safe old white guy candidate, because presidents are old white guys.
Honestly, I was thinking it's more gender than race, because of Biden's significant popularity among minority communities, and well... Obama, but I can see how "stereotypical roles" plays a part there.
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
Warren manages to come off as for major changes rather than going to some idealic pre-2016 status quo without making it into some moot argument over socialism and capitalism.
I think her having a plan for everything is a big part of that. One of the stereotypes for socialism is promising all these great government benefits without having given any thought on how to pay for it (or it relies heavily on MMT or something else outside the norm,) but Warren has obviously given a lot of thought on how to do so.
A lot of her plans have really dodgy funding math
I’m OK with that. Accurate funding math for turning the USA into Scandinavia would be the Google News equivalent of the brown note.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
Warren manages to come off as for major changes rather than going to some idealic pre-2016 status quo without making it into some moot argument over socialism and capitalism.
I think her having a plan for everything is a big part of that. One of the stereotypes for socialism is promising all these great government benefits without having given any thought on how to pay for it (or it relies heavily on MMT or something else outside the norm,) but Warren has obviously given a lot of thought on how to do so.
A lot of her plans have really dodgy funding math
This comes across as super hand-wavy. How is the funding math dodgy?
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MrMonroepassed outon the floor nowRegistered Userregular
I think NH is viewed as a must-win for "local" politicians because New England as a whole has a lot of commonality and politicians from the region tend to get judged regionally, so if you're a NE politician and you can't get people in NH to pay attention to you, good effing luck anywhere else either.
It has not been my experience that people in NH have any kind of positive affinity for anything related to MA.
Last time I went the first thing I noticed when my bus let out was a bumper sticker on the back of a truck that said,
Yeah I'd call an NH loss for Warren a good bet. Her winning NH or even placing top 3 would actually be a giant surprise. Warren is like the go to MA leftist boogie man for NH, also a bunch of folks are gonna be voting in the democratic primary that should be voting in a Republican primary but won't since there isn't one this year.
Yeah I'd call an NH loss for Warren a good bet. Her winning NH or even placing top 3 would actually be a giant surprise. Warren is like the go to MA leftist boogie man for NH, also a bunch of folks are gonna be voting in the democratic primary that should be voting in a Republican primary but won't since there isn't one this year.
From what I could find on 538, Warren has polled no worse than 3rd in NH at any point, and a YouGov poll released yesterday actually has Warren, Biden and Sanders in a virtual dead heat (Warren 27, Biden 26, Sanders 25).
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MrMonroepassed outon the floor nowRegistered Userregular
I just mean it would be foolish to assume local proximity will substantially help either Warren or Sanders in NH. I agree that the very libertarian electorate there is probably not her best audience, but then Sanders picked up the state handily last time around and you'd expect him to have most of the same problems.
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Or do you mean Harris? I see her trying again in 2024 or 2028.
All my concerns have been waylaid.
This isn't saying that Bernie hasn't been, but it makes sense that we're seeing both of them do well, I think
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There is a chance warren can win iowa, and a similarly sized chance that biden can. Still time for it to change, but right now her lead in that state is within the margin of error.
If she wins, that could bump her up in a way that properly threatens biden's lead. If she loses to biden, he starts solidifying his stance as the “electable” candidate.
If these numbers remain similar as we get closer to Iowa, I really think the safer move if the more left/progressive side of the party wants a shot at it, would be for either sanders or warren to give as many of their votes as possible to the other by bowing out. If all three go into Iowa and Biden wins it, there is a very good shot this turns into Biden v. Trump.
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Despite all his faults, I think he’s trying to better the country and I’d be remiss if he decides to scorch earth when he eventually fizzles out and doesn’t endorse someone.
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Hopefully, but I'm getting an increasingly reactionary "I'm the savior who will protect the Party from the young!" vibe off Biden. I could see him ending up a Lieberman, spouting off on Fox News about how the Democrats left him.
I think he'd be graceful, because his heart doesn't really seem to be in running, so I think he and his family would be secretly relieved. He'd feel he did his duty, and the voters decided.
But it’s dangerous for his campaign because if he loses Iowa to, say, Warren, other states may see him as less electable.
I think it’s a mistake to say Biden losing is inevitable. He has led in the polls since his campaign started and after gaffes started stacking up it hasn’t wavered. I’m sure a lot of Republicans were sure Trump was going to flame out too and I don’t want to assume the same of Joe.
I’m being optimistic until I can’t.
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I just don’t take anything election related for granted anymore because reasons.
I could see Warren finishing 1 or 2 in Iowa, Bernie 1 and Warren 2 in NH, then if Bernie can get a win in SC with Warren polling a close 3rd, all the shine of “electability” comes off Biden.
1.) You want Warren to win in Iowa on her own strengths
2.) You want to kill any narrative about Bernie being sabotaged or blackmailed/bought out of the race in the crib. You want him to exit at a point where his path to winning the primary doesn't look great. Note my actual worry in this case isn't from genuine liberals or socialist but the kind of shit the Russians or 4 Chan would love to stir up in the aftermath
3.) Most Bernie voters second choice started as Biden, likely due to their shared high name recognition. You want Warren to solidify/replace him in this regard first.
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This is the problem with being the frontrunner from the time you enter the race. You have nowhere to go but down, and everybody else has nowhere to go but up. If Biden loses Iowa, that's going to do some serious damage to his inevitability/electability narrative going forward. If he wins, but doesn't win decisively, his campaign looks like it's only holding on to the lead because there are so many competitors.
I guess it isn't impossible for Biden to consolidate a lead when other people drop out, but Morning Consult shows that, for example, Harris' supporters' second choice is tied between Warren and Biden, so if anything an early Harris drop (not likely) would have Warren pushing well past Bernie and comfortably into second place.
Weirdly, more Sanders supporters have Biden as a second choice than any other candidate, but Warren supporters prefer Sanders as a second choice. If I had to guess, the 20% of Warren supporters that have Harris as a second choice is contrasting sharply with the 7% of Sanders supporters who feel the same. Looks to me like all the Bernie supporters that have a center-left second choice candidate vastly prefer Biden over Harris.
It is only weird if you think most primary voters are primarily ideological voters. Biden is well known and that name recognition is huge and had fairly good press in the past.
Warren needs to gain Black voters, Biden needs to keep them, and Bernie needs to get some of that momentum that Warren has been building. My take is that Booker or Harris could end up as the key player here by dropping out after NH or SC and throwing their support to one of the top three. That has the potential to give Biden a commanding lead or to put Bernie or Warren in a solid second place, meaning the other would need to drop out to advance their policies.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/09/06/joe-biden-attracts-both-black-voters-racially-resentful-voters/
If Biden through some means or another loses three of the first four primaries (holds on, but underperforms in South Carolina) then I'll feel pretty good about things trending towards him not making a huge splash on Super Tuesday since his narrative will be shattered.
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those people don't know what they want
Yeah that's just nutty as fuck.
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Most likely they want Trump gone and else is secondary. Biden polls best for that with Sanders second.
At least it's better than the Bernie->Trump geese from last time?
I think her having a plan for everything is a big part of that. One of the stereotypes for socialism is promising all these great government benefits without having given any thought on how to pay for it (or it relies heavily on MMT or something else outside the norm,) but Warren has obviously given a lot of thought on how to do so.
A lot of her plans have really dodgy funding math
if we can figure out how to throw billions more at the DoD every year, we can figure out how to pay for things that are actually good and desirable when the time comes
That screams identity politics to me much more than either's position on, well, anything. They want the safe old white guy candidate, because presidents are old white guys.
Yeah I dont really care that much, and Ive certainly argued agaisnt campaign by white paper before.
I just think theyre employing a kind of competence through attrition as a marketing strategy
I think maybe given whats going on in the country moving past his jewishness straight to white guy isnt something we should be doing.
By that logic Trump will lose every state though. We are not a representative sample
Most NH ppl are much more MA adjacent or work in MA. I would strongly suspect (and polling supports this I believe) she would win pretty handily.
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Undoubtedly, but when picturing voters who see Biden 1, Bernie 2, I don't see voters that are looking at issues so much as looking for safe options to beat Trump and be President.
Honestly, I was thinking it's more gender than race, because of Biden's significant popularity among minority communities, and well... Obama, but I can see how "stereotypical roles" plays a part there.
I’m OK with that. Accurate funding math for turning the USA into Scandinavia would be the Google News equivalent of the brown note.
This comes across as super hand-wavy. How is the funding math dodgy?
It has not been my experience that people in NH have any kind of positive affinity for anything related to MA.
Last time I went the first thing I noticed when my bus let out was a bumper sticker on the back of a truck that said,
WELCOME TO NH
DON'T MASS IT UP
From what I could find on 538, Warren has polled no worse than 3rd in NH at any point, and a YouGov poll released yesterday actually has Warren, Biden and Sanders in a virtual dead heat (Warren 27, Biden 26, Sanders 25).
I just mean it would be foolish to assume local proximity will substantially help either Warren or Sanders in NH. I agree that the very libertarian electorate there is probably not her best audience, but then Sanders picked up the state handily last time around and you'd expect him to have most of the same problems.