Whats the news on Tencent supposedly leaking different numbers to the official ones?
Unclear at this point. I'm seeing a lot of rumor and speculation, and it's hard to know what's fact and what's internet pandemonium. Something similar happened nine days ago, so it might be a rehash of that episode? Again, hard to tell what's what on this front.
The Wisconsin Department of Health says the first case of coronavirus has been confirmed in Wisconsin.
The patient became infected when traveling abroad in China.
The Department of Health says the risk for other people in Wisconsin is low.
The person has not been hospitalized, health officials say the person has mild symptoms. The patient received testing at the University of Wisconsin Hospital in Madison
Health officials did not say where in the state the person lives or underwent testing.
More self-isolation. I hope their condition does not deteriorate in the same way that's happened to previous US cases.
Though it looks like this was a person who had been to China recently.
The most believable hypothesis on the Tencent "leak" is that they just labeled the numbers wrong, the deaths are really infections and the infections are how many people are being "monitored". Just a dumb mistake that is feeding in to hysteria.
Because if those numbers were the real numbers we would probably see much more extreme measures from the Chinese government to deal with the crisis. Less building hospitals and more torching mass graves with flamethrowers.
I remember being in a small room when a coworker who had been out sick the day previously came in, looking like death. I asked him if he was alright, and he said "Don't worry, my fever broke. I've just got a stuffed up head".
That's not how this works, that's not how any of this works!
I had a co-worker pull this crap and gave me flu into pneumonia a few years back (their excuse was "it's okay, I'm on antibiotics").
Y'know, if I had to guess I'd have said that a fever was indicative of being more contagious. All the daycares/preschools and whatnot always base their rules on when you have to keep your sick kid at home based on when their fever was. Well, and the more obvious stuff like vomiting/etc.
Whats the news on Tencent supposedly leaking different numbers to the official ones?
Unclear at this point. I'm seeing a lot of rumor and speculation, and it's hard to know what's fact and what's internet pandemonium. Something similar happened nine days ago, so it might be a rehash of that episode? Again, hard to tell what's what on this front.
The Wisconsin Department of Health says the first case of coronavirus has been confirmed in Wisconsin.
The patient became infected when traveling abroad in China.
The Department of Health says the risk for other people in Wisconsin is low.
The person has not been hospitalized, health officials say the person has mild symptoms. The patient received testing at the University of Wisconsin Hospital in Madison
Health officials did not say where in the state the person lives or underwent testing.
More self-isolation. I hope their condition does not deteriorate in the same way that's happened to previous US cases.
Though it looks like this was a person who had been to China recently.
I just got the spoiler'd email about this from UW-Madison since I'm currently a student. This was just a matter of time since a fair number of students come from that area, and they were more than likely home during the winter break, Dec 14 to Jan 20, which is the exact perfect time to have unknowingly picked up this virus
To our campus community,
We want to make you aware that there has been a single confirmed case of coronavirus at University Hospital involving a person who recently traveled to China. We have no information that this person has visited the UW-Madison campus, other than to seek care at University Hospital.
We believe that the risk to the campus community is low for two important reasons:
• The person has self-isolated at home, based on the advice of their health care providers. Upon returning from China with mild symptoms, the person immediately sought medical treatment at UW Hospital, was tested for coronavirus and advised to stay home while awaiting results.
• The university has been working closely with UW Health and the Wisconsin Department of Public Health in recent weeks to prepare for this possibility and take all necessary steps to protect the health and safety of our community.
UW–Madison is carefully monitoring the circumstances and will continue to comply with best practices and guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.
Here is what you should do:
• Keep in mind that if you have not traveled to mainland China within the past two weeks or been in close contact with someone who has, your risk is low.
• If you have traveled to mainland China recently, visit a medical provider if you develop flu-like symptoms.
• Continue to practice good hygiene: wash your hands frequently and cough/sneeze into the elbow rather than the hands.
Unless you are having symptoms and are specifically directed by a medical provider to stay home, you may continue to participate in school, work and other activities as usual.
U.S. public health officials do not recommend that people without symptoms wear a mask. You may be asked to wear a mask when visiting a healthcare facility and some individuals may choose to wear a mask. This should not be a cause for concern.
If there is a need for you to take any other actions, the university will communicate with you.
We recognize that this is a stressful situation for many members of our community, especially those who are from or have family and friends in the affected area.
Again, please be reassured that we are taking all appropriate actions to keep our community healthy and safe.
Already was seeing a fair number of people wearing masks around campus, but I expect that to go up a lot more tomorrow.
The most believable hypothesis on the Tencent "leak" is that they just labeled the numbers wrong, the deaths are really infections and the infections are how many people are being "monitored". Just a dumb mistake that is feeding in to hysteria.
Because if those numbers were the real numbers we would probably see much more extreme measures from the Chinese government to deal with the crisis. Less building hospitals and more torching mass graves with flamethrowers.
That doesn't make any sense, they didn't flop numbers, they revised them all down to 1/4 to 1/10th, except for cured which increased.
confirmed cases, suspected case, cured, deaths
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
edited February 2020
I keep seeing statements with each new case that say:
Keep in mind that if you have not traveled to mainland China within the past two weeks or been in close contact with someone who has, your risk is low.
Which I have to say I don't really believe, and honestly this information may be harmful.
We already know that asymptomatic infection is possible, and the people who have confirmed infections in the US came here by plane, and then used Uber, etc. to move around. They went to the grocery store most likely. Interacted with neighbors and family. The idea that a virus that's infecting tens of thousands in China right now without slowing down would somehow not spread just as virulently elsewhere in the world is kind of absurd.
But mostly, it's preventing our ability to diagnose properly. How many people are at home right now, outside of China, thinking they just have a bad cold? How many of them are struggling through it and going to work?
How many people are those people infecting? Because they don't know and they've been told "There's no way you have the coronavirus, because you haven't been to China"?
Gotta admit, I've been losing some sleep over this.
I love listening to a coronavirus segment on NPR talking about them being unsure whether people are or are not asymptomatic when they can start spreading the virus.
The conclusion: people usually are symptomatic (even mildly so) when they transmit it to others and asymptomatic spread is not usually what causes pandemics.
Why would confirmed cases be lower than suspected? And 154 thousand confirmed? Considering not all tests come back confirmed, that means they tested maybe about a quarter a million people, that's crazy. The hypothesis I put forward is false in details, but I still think it's just a mistake.
Because holy shit, if those numbers are true. Those are "I'm going to go spend a few months in the mountains" numbers.
I love listening to a coronavirus segment on NPR talking about them being unsure whether people are or are not asymptomatic when they can start spreading the virus.
The conclusion: people usually are symptomatic (even mildly so) when they transmit it to others and asymptomatic spread is not usually what causes pandemics.
The problem: they left out the symptoms
:rotate:
The problem is the symptom list is pretty useless since it overlaps with "mild cold".
From elsewhere, it's noted that the +s to those figures indicates not just that day's numbers, but also numbers from yesterday that also don't match the official figures. It's also noted that this isn't the first time Tencent has posted numbers that don't come close to the official figures, only to correct them shortly after. That doesn't mean much, though. Once you get a human into the loop, all sorts of data entry mishaps are possible.
While whatever's going on with the Tencent numbers isn't clear, it's obvious that China's official numbers exist primarily for PR purposes, and should be considered in that light. I think it's safe to assume that there is a set of figures somewhere that can be used for important decisions, with values that more closely model reality.
I love listening to a coronavirus segment on NPR talking about them being unsure whether people are or are not asymptomatic when they can start spreading the virus.
The conclusion: people usually are symptomatic (even mildly so) when they transmit it to others and asymptomatic spread is not usually what causes pandemics.
The problem: they left out the symptoms
:rotate:
The problem is the symptom list is pretty useless since it overlaps with "mild cold".
Sure, but at least say the same symptoms as a mild cold.
Didn't seem to be one in a series so it wasn't covered earlier, but a very silly thing to not point out or reinforce.
I love listening to a coronavirus segment on NPR talking about them being unsure whether people are or are not asymptomatic when they can start spreading the virus.
The conclusion: people usually are symptomatic (even mildly so) when they transmit it to others and asymptomatic spread is not usually what causes pandemics.
The problem: they left out the symptoms
:rotate:
The problem is the symptom list is pretty useless since it overlaps with "mild cold".
Sure, but at least say the same symptoms as a mild cold.
Didn't seem to be one in a series so it wasn't covered earlier, but a very silly thing to not point out or reinforce.
I love listening to a coronavirus segment on NPR talking about them being unsure whether people are or are not asymptomatic when they can start spreading the virus.
The conclusion: people usually are symptomatic (even mildly so) when they transmit it to others and asymptomatic spread is not usually what causes pandemics.
The problem: they left out the symptoms
:rotate:
Or they give the symptoms and the whole country goes up in flames because suddenly everyone starts fearing everyone who has the sniffles, and things really go to hell.
The most believable hypothesis on the Tencent "leak" is that they just labeled the numbers wrong, the deaths are really infections and the infections are how many people are being "monitored". Just a dumb mistake that is feeding in to hysteria.
Because if those numbers were the real numbers we would probably see much more extreme measures from the Chinese government to deal with the crisis. Less building hospitals and more torching mass graves with flamethrowers.
That doesn't make any sense, they didn't flop numbers, they revised them all down to 1/4 to 1/10th, except for cured which increased.
confirmed cases, suspected case, cured, deaths
A 16% lethality rate and 0.17% recovery rate within the current timeframe don't jive with what other countries have seen of the virus.
The volume of testing, hospital admissions, tracking, and deaths per day beggars belief, as it would far exceed Wuhan's claimed capacity, even with the second new hospital that's not running yet, and those claimed capacities are dubious in and of themselves. Even if there were this many cases, they simply wouldn't be able to complete the tests this fast.
His videos on it are pretty good. The biggest issue he's worried about is the need in 25-50% of patients for Oxygen. Each hospital may only have up to 300 ventilators-if this becomes a full-blown outbreak, we won't be able to save them all-which is what you are seeing in China.
Say you get 10,000 cases in a area that means 2500-5000 need O2, and the local hospital can only supply 300, that's where the mortality rate starts to rise. Which is probably why China's building more hospitals-for the Oxygen treatments.
At work so I can't watch that but are you saying 25-50% need VENTILATORS? Like tube into lung which they force O2 into ventilators? That's hugely different than supplemental oxygen supplied via a facemask or nasal cannula.
The second is fairly easy to ramp up capacity as the most scarce part is the regulator. Full on ventilators are an entirely different matter and I'm not sure what the hospital beds are going to do for them.
I love listening to a coronavirus segment on NPR talking about them being unsure whether people are or are not asymptomatic when they can start spreading the virus.
The conclusion: people usually are symptomatic (even mildly so) when they transmit it to others and asymptomatic spread is not usually what causes pandemics.
The problem: they left out the symptoms
:rotate:
The problem is the symptom list is pretty useless since it overlaps with "mild cold".
Sure, but at least say the same symptoms as a mild cold.
Didn't seem to be one in a series so it wasn't covered earlier, but a very silly thing to not point out or reinforce.
Does that help anything really?
My own peace of mind/laziness so I don't have to look it up the symptoms or complain about in a coronavirus thread?
I love listening to a coronavirus segment on NPR talking about them being unsure whether people are or are not asymptomatic when they can start spreading the virus.
The conclusion: people usually are symptomatic (even mildly so) when they transmit it to others and asymptomatic spread is not usually what causes pandemics.
The problem: they left out the symptoms
:rotate:
Or they give the symptoms and the whole country goes up in flames because suddenly everyone starts fearing everyone who has the sniffles, and things really go to hell.
Ignorance is not bliss. I've been tempted to start wearing a mask just cause and I do clinicals in a hospital that now have coronavirus protocols even though so far the risk is low.
People are going to freak out regardless, at least reinforce that if you're feeling sick to just stay home--a silly prospect in America where living costs make sure you probably can't do that.
JOLIET, Ill. – Police are searching for a man who caused thousands of dollars of damage in a Walmart in suburban Chicago by spraying disinfectant while wearing a surgical mask and a sign on his back declaring that he has the deadly coronavirus.
Police say the man in his 20s sprayed Lysol on clothing, produce and health and beauty items in the Joliet store causing nearly $10,000 in damage.
That's pretty much the entire story, except a mention that the first US case of person to person transmission was in Chicago.
At work so I can't watch that but are you saying 25-50% need VENTILATORS? Like tube into lung which they force O2 into ventilators? That's hugely different than supplemental oxygen supplied via a facemask or nasal cannula.
The second is fairly easy to ramp up capacity as the most scarce part is the regulator. Full on ventilators are an entirely different matter and I'm not sure what the hospital beds are going to do for them.
I can't quite watch it with sound, because at work myself, but it wouldn't surprised me if 25-50% need actual ventilators. Even with the ~12 or so current cases we've seen in the US, a significant portion are reported to need assistance breathing. Hence the sudden uptick in people being rushed to the hospital.
The buzz this morning is that two new cases have cropped up in Singapore, bringing their total number of cases to 30. Of note is that one of the new cases is an individual who has not traveled to China, nor had any known interaction with anyone who has contracted the virus. He had, however, attended a business meeting with people in attendance from Hubei. Asymptomatic transmission seems to be more and more confirmed.
Anecdotally, from my own experience - I'm worried about what's happening currently in the US that we might not know about. An acquaintance of mine that I follow on social media recently returned from a trip to Japan. They've been sick for the past week and a half, and just this morning said something to the effect of "Though I had this beat, but it really keeps getting worse". They're brushing it off as a bad cold (which it may be).
When people have urged them to go to the doctor, they've responded with "Hahaha, I don't have the money for that". They're a freelancer, and don't have insurance, according to them.
I do wonder how many people with the virus in the US just won't be counted or identified because our healthcare system is just the fucking worst.
Present in a fair bit of cases:
Vomiting
diarrhea(contaminated with the virus)
Bone-marrow weaking
Pneumonia -leading to disruption of heart and kindney functions.
Runny nose(late stage of disease after pnemonia has passed).
Virus is not present in the blood except in severe cases.
Carriers contagious in incubation period, and high viral load after recovery.
Could live from 5 to 28 days on surfaces with 28 days being at 4c. Hates heat. Backed up by study on Sars and China spraying streets and people with disinfectant.(the envelop of coronaviruses makes then surive longer then other viruses).
Incubation period 2-14 days.
Flushing the toilet with infected feces can aerosolize the virus-close toilet lid.
Infects through mucus membranes-eyes mouth nose.
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
Present in a fair bit of cases:
Vomiting diarrhea(contaminated with the virus)
Bone-marrow weaking
Pneumonia -leading to disruption of heart and kindney functions.
Runny nose(late stage of disease after pnemonia has passed).
Virus is not present in the blood except in severe cases.
Carriers contagious in incubation period, and high viral load after recovery.
Could live from 5 to 28 days on surfaces with 28 days being at 4c. Hates heat. Backed up by study on Sars and China spraying streets and people with disinfectant.(the envelop of coronaviruses makes then surive longer then other viruses).
Incubation period 2-14 days. Flushing the toilet with infected feces can aerosolize the virus-close toilet lid. Infects through mucus membranes-eyes mouth nose.
If the bolded are true, we're in for a hell of a wild ride in the next two months. This was how SARS infected an entire apartment complex - If your upstairs or downstairs neighbor get a bad case, it's coming up into your home.
The bathrooms at my workplace don't even HAVE lids, christ.
The most believable hypothesis on the Tencent "leak" is that they just labeled the numbers wrong, the deaths are really infections and the infections are how many people are being "monitored". Just a dumb mistake that is feeding in to hysteria.
Because if those numbers were the real numbers we would probably see much more extreme measures from the Chinese government to deal with the crisis. Less building hospitals and more torching mass graves with flamethrowers.
That doesn't make any sense, they didn't flop numbers, they revised them all down to 1/4 to 1/10th, except for cured which increased.
confirmed cases, suspected case, cured, deaths
A 16% lethality rate and 0.17% recovery rate within the current timeframe don't jive with what other countries have seen of the virus.
The volume of testing, hospital admissions, tracking, and deaths per day beggars belief, as it would far exceed Wuhan's claimed capacity, even with the second new hospital that's not running yet, and those claimed capacities are dubious in and of themselves. Even if there were this many cases, they simply wouldn't be able to complete the tests this fast.
I think the idea is that these would be estimates instead of only counting proven cases like China is doing with the official numbers. (I find this unlikely for other reasons, but whatever.)
Re: those Tencent numbers, surely that number of dead (24,000+) would be hard to cover up? Sure Puerto Rico was a thing, but that’s an order of magnitude higher number of corpses to shuffle under the rug.
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
There's a new article on the situation in Wuhan from the New York Times. It really sounds like they're struggling hard over there.
A senior Chinese official has ordered the authorities in the city of Wuhan to immediately round up all residents who have been infected with the coronavirus and place them in isolation, quarantine or designated hospitals.
Sun Chunlan, a vice premier tasked with leading the central government’s response to the outbreak, said city investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts.
“Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Ms. Sun said.
The city’s authorities have raced to meet these instructions by setting up makeshift mass quarantine shelters this week. But concerns are growing about whether the centers, which will house thousands of people in large spaces, will be able to provide even basic care to patients and protect against the risk of further infection.
They've started making what amount to isolation camps for people who are infected.
The real threat this virus poses seems to be in how virulent it is, and how overwhelmed the healthcare systems have become as a result. Hopefully the advanced warning will allow some measure of preparation elsewhere in the world. But it just feels like no one is taking it seriously if they're not in China.
I keep seeing statements with each new case that say:
Keep in mind that if you have not traveled to mainland China within the past two weeks or been in close contact with someone who has, your risk is low.
Which I have to say I don't really believe, and honestly this information may be harmful.
We already know that asymptomatic infection is possible, and the people who have confirmed infections in the US came here by plane, and then used Uber, etc. to move around. They went to the grocery store most likely. Interacted with neighbors and family. The idea that a virus that's infecting tens of thousands in China right now without slowing down would somehow not spread just as virulently elsewhere in the world is kind of absurd.
But mostly, it's preventing our ability to diagnose properly. How many people are at home right now, outside of China, thinking they just have a bad cold? How many of them are struggling through it and going to work?
How many people are those people infecting? Because they don't know and they've been told "There's no way you have the coronavirus, because you haven't been to China"?
Gotta admit, I've been losing some sleep over this.
No, it's not irresponsible, it's true. That information comes from experts in disease spread like the CDC.
If it weren't true that risk for the vast vast majority of Americans is low, we'd have thousands of cases instead of just a handful.
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
edited February 2020
The incubation period of the virus, combined with the fact that it is currently spreading rapidly in locations outside of China (like Singapore) make me think that it's highly likely that people are spreading this illness without knowing they have it. I don't think travel to, or contact with people who have traveled to, China should be the only criteria for checking for infection.
I genuinely think the reason we have so few cases currently is that we're blind to them due to the nature and timing of the illness, and that in about two weeks we may see an uptick.
There's no way it's super contagious in Wuhan, and nowhere else.
JOLIET, Ill. – Police are searching for a man who caused thousands of dollars of damage in a Walmart in suburban Chicago by spraying disinfectant while wearing a surgical mask and a sign on his back declaring that he has the deadly coronavirus.
Police say the man in his 20s sprayed Lysol on clothing, produce and health and beauty items in the Joliet store causing nearly $10,000 in damage.
That's pretty much the entire story, except a mention that the first US case of person to person transmission was in Chicago.
There was a guy who, on a flight from Toronto to Jamaica, stood up and announced he just came back from Hunan province and wasn't feeling well as a joke.
JOLIET, Ill. – Police are searching for a man who caused thousands of dollars of damage in a Walmart in suburban Chicago by spraying disinfectant while wearing a surgical mask and a sign on his back declaring that he has the deadly coronavirus.
Police say the man in his 20s sprayed Lysol on clothing, produce and health and beauty items in the Joliet store causing nearly $10,000 in damage.
That's pretty much the entire story, except a mention that the first US case of person to person transmission was in Chicago.
There was a guy who, on a flight from Toronto to Jamaica, stood up and announced he just came back from Hunan province and wasn't feeling well as a joke.
The incubation period of the virus, combined with the fact that it is currently spreading rapidly in locations outside of China (like Singapore) make me think that it's highly likely that people are spreading this illness without knowing they have it. I don't think travel to, or contact with people who have traveled to, China should be the only criteria for checking for infection.
I genuinely think the reason we have so few cases currently is that we're blind to them due to the nature and timing of the illness, and that in about two weeks we may see an uptick.
There's no way it's super contagious in Wuhan, and nowhere else.
I mean maybe, but there's no way to know right now. It's unprovable one way or the other at the moment.
So, assume it's true, because that's the cautious thing to do. Then question becomes what are you personally going to do differently? Stop going to public events with lots of strangers. Wear a mask. Use lots of disinfectant. Those are all very reasonable things to do. But that's kind of all there is; there's nothing you can do to alter the course and rate of spread to other people, and short of becoming a shut in there's not a lot else you can do to protect yourself.
VishNub on
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
The incubation period of the virus, combined with the fact that it is currently spreading rapidly in locations outside of China (like Singapore) make me think that it's highly likely that people are spreading this illness without knowing they have it. I don't think travel to, or contact with people who have traveled to, China should be the only criteria for checking for infection.
I genuinely think the reason we have so few cases currently is that we're blind to them due to the nature and timing of the illness, and that in about two weeks we may see an uptick.
There's no way it's super contagious in Wuhan, and nowhere else.
I mean maybe, but there's no way to know right now. It's unprovable one way or the other at the moment.
So, assume it's true, because that's the cautious thing to do. Then question becomes what are you personally going to do differently? Stop going to public events with lots of strangers. Wear a mask. Use lots of disinfectant. Those are all very reasonable things to do. But that's kind of all there is; there's nothing you can do to alter the course and rate of spread to other people, and short of becoming a shut in there's not a lot else you can do to protect yourself.
Quite agreed on all points. We do need to wait and see what the data tells us. There's not enough of it outside of China right now to know for sure.
I am seriously considering cancelling attending a convention I was REALLY looking forward to going to. I'm still going to see how things pan out beforehand, but woof - even on a good year, conventions can spread a virus like no one's business.
The incubation period of the virus, combined with the fact that it is currently spreading rapidly in locations outside of China (like Singapore) make me think that it's highly likely that people are spreading this illness without knowing they have it. I don't think travel to, or contact with people who have traveled to, China should be the only criteria for checking for infection.
I genuinely think the reason we have so few cases currently is that we're blind to them due to the nature and timing of the illness, and that in about two weeks we may see an uptick.
There's no way it's super contagious in Wuhan, and nowhere else.
I mean maybe, but there's no way to know right now. It's unprovable one way or the other at the moment.
So, assume it's true, because that's the cautious thing to do. Then question becomes what are you personally going to do differently? Stop going to public events with lots of strangers. Wear a mask. Use lots of disinfectant. Those are all very reasonable things to do. But that's kind of all there is; there's nothing you can do to alter the course and rate of spread to other people, and short of becoming a shut in there's not a lot else you can do to protect yourself.
Quite agreed on all points. We do need to wait and see what the data tells us. There's not enough of it outside of China right now to know for sure.
I am seriously considering cancelling attending a convention I was REALLY looking forward to going to. I'm still going to see how things pan out beforehand, but woof - even on a good year, conventions can spread a virus like no one's business.
I mean, we're getting into H/A territory, but if it's going to bother you the whole time such that you don't enjoy yourself, or it will make you paranoid for two weeks after? I would cancel.
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ShivahnUnaware of her barrel shifter privilegeWestern coastal temptressRegistered User, Moderatormod
Apparently they're looking into testing remdesivir, which was originally developed to treat the not at all related hemorrhagic fevers, for nCoV. And maybe also chloroquine, which is an antimalarial, so now we're in a completely different tree of life and I have no idea how that works. There's some preliminary stuff that shows efficacy, so here's hoping.
Plus, looking into recycling the SARS vaccine work.
They have legit thrown everything at the virus. Including HIV meds. Which doesn't make sense because HIV and coronaviruses aren't really related.
SARS work makes sense because the it is the same family and shares like an 83% or something match in its structure.
HIV and nCoV are both RNA viruses. I'm not a virologist, but their similarities seem fairly basic in nature, akin to the similarities in bacteria (i.e., cell wall similarities) that allow(ed) broad spectrum antibiotics to be so effective.
Both remdesivir and Ritanovir are RNA nucleoside mimetics, so yeah I guess that makes sense. You just don’t usually think about broad spectrum antivirals the way you do about antibiotics.
Right, but that's partly because viruses are diverse as fuck. What kind of self-respecting organism doesn't have DNA? None, because viruses aren't organisms, more like malicious organic dust, but
The incubation period of the virus, combined with the fact that it is currently spreading rapidly in locations outside of China (like Singapore) make me think that it's highly likely that people are spreading this illness without knowing they have it. I don't think travel to, or contact with people who have traveled to, China should be the only criteria for checking for infection.
I genuinely think the reason we have so few cases currently is that we're blind to them due to the nature and timing of the illness, and that in about two weeks we may see an uptick.
There's no way it's super contagious in Wuhan, and nowhere else.
I mean maybe, but there's no way to know right now. It's unprovable one way or the other at the moment.
So, assume it's true, because that's the cautious thing to do. Then question becomes what are you personally going to do differently? Stop going to public events with lots of strangers. Wear a mask. Use lots of disinfectant. Those are all very reasonable things to do. But that's kind of all there is; there's nothing you can do to alter the course and rate of spread to other people, and short of becoming a shut in there's not a lot else you can do to protect yourself.
It is very weird to be unemployed and just job applying and such in a different country right now. I leave the house like once a week, if that. I am... invincible?
CDC still lists, as a general coronavirus symptom, "a general feeling of being unwell," though, so I am 100% infected anyway.
(I get that that's an actual symptom, but it feels weird to see that in a government publication thingy)
My broader point is that sitting there worrying about it doesn’t accomplish anything other then making you feel like shit. So, to the extent possible, don’t.
I know that’s not how fear, paranoia, phobia or even emotion works but like, at least try.
VishNub on
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ShivahnUnaware of her barrel shifter privilegeWestern coastal temptressRegistered User, Moderatormod
My broader point is that sitting there worrying about doesn’t accomplish anything other then making you feel like shit. So, to the extent possible, don’t.
I know that’s not how fear, paranoia, phobia or even emotion works but like, at least try.
I was mostly just musing, though I guess it's.. probably unhelpful in this context, sorry.
I actually find that that does help me (and is basically CBT, really). When I step back and am mindful of the fact that I can't help a thing, in general, I find dealing with the emotions attached to that thing much more manageable.
Posts
Details still scarce about if this was a traveler from China, or someone who was infected otherwise. See below.
Unclear at this point. I'm seeing a lot of rumor and speculation, and it's hard to know what's fact and what's internet pandemonium. Something similar happened nine days ago, so it might be a rehash of that episode? Again, hard to tell what's what on this front.
Edit: Details on the Wisconsin case.
More self-isolation. I hope their condition does not deteriorate in the same way that's happened to previous US cases.
Though it looks like this was a person who had been to China recently.
Because if those numbers were the real numbers we would probably see much more extreme measures from the Chinese government to deal with the crisis. Less building hospitals and more torching mass graves with flamethrowers.
Y'know, if I had to guess I'd have said that a fever was indicative of being more contagious. All the daycares/preschools and whatnot always base their rules on when you have to keep your sick kid at home based on when their fever was. Well, and the more obvious stuff like vomiting/etc.
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Are you a vet?
That's the rule all the kid places use, yeah. But that's "not how any of this works"?
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I just got the spoiler'd email about this from UW-Madison since I'm currently a student. This was just a matter of time since a fair number of students come from that area, and they were more than likely home during the winter break, Dec 14 to Jan 20, which is the exact perfect time to have unknowingly picked up this virus
We want to make you aware that there has been a single confirmed case of coronavirus at University Hospital involving a person who recently traveled to China. We have no information that this person has visited the UW-Madison campus, other than to seek care at University Hospital.
We believe that the risk to the campus community is low for two important reasons:
• The person has self-isolated at home, based on the advice of their health care providers. Upon returning from China with mild symptoms, the person immediately sought medical treatment at UW Hospital, was tested for coronavirus and advised to stay home while awaiting results.
• The university has been working closely with UW Health and the Wisconsin Department of Public Health in recent weeks to prepare for this possibility and take all necessary steps to protect the health and safety of our community.
UW–Madison is carefully monitoring the circumstances and will continue to comply with best practices and guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.
Here is what you should do:
• Keep in mind that if you have not traveled to mainland China within the past two weeks or been in close contact with someone who has, your risk is low.
• If you have traveled to mainland China recently, visit a medical provider if you develop flu-like symptoms.
• Continue to practice good hygiene: wash your hands frequently and cough/sneeze into the elbow rather than the hands.
Unless you are having symptoms and are specifically directed by a medical provider to stay home, you may continue to participate in school, work and other activities as usual.
U.S. public health officials do not recommend that people without symptoms wear a mask. You may be asked to wear a mask when visiting a healthcare facility and some individuals may choose to wear a mask. This should not be a cause for concern.
If there is a need for you to take any other actions, the university will communicate with you.
We recognize that this is a stressful situation for many members of our community, especially those who are from or have family and friends in the affected area.
Again, please be reassured that we are taking all appropriate actions to keep our community healthy and safe.
Already was seeing a fair number of people wearing masks around campus, but I expect that to go up a lot more tomorrow.
That doesn't make any sense, they didn't flop numbers, they revised them all down to 1/4 to 1/10th, except for cured which increased.
confirmed cases, suspected case, cured, deaths
Which I have to say I don't really believe, and honestly this information may be harmful.
We already know that asymptomatic infection is possible, and the people who have confirmed infections in the US came here by plane, and then used Uber, etc. to move around. They went to the grocery store most likely. Interacted with neighbors and family. The idea that a virus that's infecting tens of thousands in China right now without slowing down would somehow not spread just as virulently elsewhere in the world is kind of absurd.
But mostly, it's preventing our ability to diagnose properly. How many people are at home right now, outside of China, thinking they just have a bad cold? How many of them are struggling through it and going to work?
How many people are those people infecting? Because they don't know and they've been told "There's no way you have the coronavirus, because you haven't been to China"?
Gotta admit, I've been losing some sleep over this.
The conclusion: people usually are symptomatic (even mildly so) when they transmit it to others and asymptomatic spread is not usually what causes pandemics.
The problem: they left out the symptoms
:rotate:
I might start to now, especially after that image posted by tinwhiskers and it's ~16% mortality rate on the left vs ~2% on the right.
Any one have reliable numbers on the mortality rate for the "regular" flu in China?
Because holy shit, if those numbers are true. Those are "I'm going to go spend a few months in the mountains" numbers.
The problem is the symptom list is pretty useless since it overlaps with "mild cold".
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While whatever's going on with the Tencent numbers isn't clear, it's obvious that China's official numbers exist primarily for PR purposes, and should be considered in that light. I think it's safe to assume that there is a set of figures somewhere that can be used for important decisions, with values that more closely model reality.
Sure, but at least say the same symptoms as a mild cold.
Didn't seem to be one in a series so it wasn't covered earlier, but a very silly thing to not point out or reinforce.
Does that help anything really?
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Or they give the symptoms and the whole country goes up in flames because suddenly everyone starts fearing everyone who has the sniffles, and things really go to hell.
I can has cheezburger, yes?
A 16% lethality rate and 0.17% recovery rate within the current timeframe don't jive with what other countries have seen of the virus.
The volume of testing, hospital admissions, tracking, and deaths per day beggars belief, as it would far exceed Wuhan's claimed capacity, even with the second new hospital that's not running yet, and those claimed capacities are dubious in and of themselves. Even if there were this many cases, they simply wouldn't be able to complete the tests this fast.
His videos on it are pretty good. The biggest issue he's worried about is the need in 25-50% of patients for Oxygen. Each hospital may only have up to 300 ventilators-if this becomes a full-blown outbreak, we won't be able to save them all-which is what you are seeing in China.
Say you get 10,000 cases in a area that means 2500-5000 need O2, and the local hospital can only supply 300, that's where the mortality rate starts to rise. Which is probably why China's building more hospitals-for the Oxygen treatments.
The second is fairly easy to ramp up capacity as the most scarce part is the regulator. Full on ventilators are an entirely different matter and I'm not sure what the hospital beds are going to do for them.
My own peace of mind/laziness so I don't have to look it up the symptoms or complain about in a coronavirus thread?
Ignorance is not bliss. I've been tempted to start wearing a mask just cause and I do clinicals in a hospital that now have coronavirus protocols even though so far the risk is low.
People are going to freak out regardless, at least reinforce that if you're feeling sick to just stay home--a silly prospect in America where living costs make sure you probably can't do that.
https://fox2now.com/2020/02/05/illinois-man-says-he-has-coronavirus-sprays-store-with-disinfectant/
That's pretty much the entire story, except a mention that the first US case of person to person transmission was in Chicago.
I can't quite watch it with sound, because at work myself, but it wouldn't surprised me if 25-50% need actual ventilators. Even with the ~12 or so current cases we've seen in the US, a significant portion are reported to need assistance breathing. Hence the sudden uptick in people being rushed to the hospital.
The buzz this morning is that two new cases have cropped up in Singapore, bringing their total number of cases to 30. Of note is that one of the new cases is an individual who has not traveled to China, nor had any known interaction with anyone who has contracted the virus. He had, however, attended a business meeting with people in attendance from Hubei. Asymptomatic transmission seems to be more and more confirmed.
Anecdotally, from my own experience - I'm worried about what's happening currently in the US that we might not know about. An acquaintance of mine that I follow on social media recently returned from a trip to Japan. They've been sick for the past week and a half, and just this morning said something to the effect of "Though I had this beat, but it really keeps getting worse". They're brushing it off as a bad cold (which it may be).
When people have urged them to go to the doctor, they've responded with "Hahaha, I don't have the money for that". They're a freelancer, and don't have insurance, according to them.
I do wonder how many people with the virus in the US just won't be counted or identified because our healthcare system is just the fucking worst.
Main symptoms:
Fever
Dry cough
Fatigue
Present in a fair bit of cases:
Vomiting
diarrhea(contaminated with the virus)
Bone-marrow weaking
Pneumonia -leading to disruption of heart and kindney functions.
Runny nose(late stage of disease after pnemonia has passed).
Virus is not present in the blood except in severe cases.
Carriers contagious in incubation period, and high viral load after recovery.
Could live from 5 to 28 days on surfaces with 28 days being at 4c. Hates heat. Backed up by study on Sars and China spraying streets and people with disinfectant.(the envelop of coronaviruses makes then surive longer then other viruses).
Incubation period 2-14 days.
Flushing the toilet with infected feces can aerosolize the virus-close toilet lid.
Infects through mucus membranes-eyes mouth nose.
If the bolded are true, we're in for a hell of a wild ride in the next two months. This was how SARS infected an entire apartment complex - If your upstairs or downstairs neighbor get a bad case, it's coming up into your home.
The bathrooms at my workplace don't even HAVE lids, christ.
I think the idea is that these would be estimates instead of only counting proven cases like China is doing with the official numbers. (I find this unlikely for other reasons, but whatever.)
They've started making what amount to isolation camps for people who are infected.
The real threat this virus poses seems to be in how virulent it is, and how overwhelmed the healthcare systems have become as a result. Hopefully the advanced warning will allow some measure of preparation elsewhere in the world. But it just feels like no one is taking it seriously if they're not in China.
No, it's not irresponsible, it's true. That information comes from experts in disease spread like the CDC.
If it weren't true that risk for the vast vast majority of Americans is low, we'd have thousands of cases instead of just a handful.
I genuinely think the reason we have so few cases currently is that we're blind to them due to the nature and timing of the illness, and that in about two weeks we may see an uptick.
There's no way it's super contagious in Wuhan, and nowhere else.
There was a guy who, on a flight from Toronto to Jamaica, stood up and announced he just came back from Hunan province and wasn't feeling well as a joke.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2020/02/05/an-instagram-personality-said-he-had-coronavirus-plane-failed-viral-stunt-got-him-arrested/
Check out the flight path
It looks like they got to Florida and then nope'd out, lol.
I mean maybe, but there's no way to know right now. It's unprovable one way or the other at the moment.
So, assume it's true, because that's the cautious thing to do. Then question becomes what are you personally going to do differently? Stop going to public events with lots of strangers. Wear a mask. Use lots of disinfectant. Those are all very reasonable things to do. But that's kind of all there is; there's nothing you can do to alter the course and rate of spread to other people, and short of becoming a shut in there's not a lot else you can do to protect yourself.
Quite agreed on all points. We do need to wait and see what the data tells us. There's not enough of it outside of China right now to know for sure.
I am seriously considering cancelling attending a convention I was REALLY looking forward to going to. I'm still going to see how things pan out beforehand, but woof - even on a good year, conventions can spread a virus like no one's business.
I mean, we're getting into H/A territory, but if it's going to bother you the whole time such that you don't enjoy yourself, or it will make you paranoid for two weeks after? I would cancel.
Right, but that's partly because viruses are diverse as fuck. What kind of self-respecting organism doesn't have DNA? None, because viruses aren't organisms, more like malicious organic dust, but
It is very weird to be unemployed and just job applying and such in a different country right now. I leave the house like once a week, if that. I am... invincible?
CDC still lists, as a general coronavirus symptom, "a general feeling of being unwell," though, so I am 100% infected anyway.
(I get that that's an actual symptom, but it feels weird to see that in a government publication thingy)
I know that’s not how fear, paranoia, phobia or even emotion works but like, at least try.
I was mostly just musing, though I guess it's.. probably unhelpful in this context, sorry.
I actually find that that does help me (and is basically CBT, really). When I step back and am mindful of the fact that I can't help a thing, in general, I find dealing with the emotions attached to that thing much more manageable.