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American Primaries: Super Tuesday. YES WE CAN!
Elki
get busyModerator, ClubPA mod
get busyModerator, ClubPA mod
Once again, the greatest show on earth
Especially if you happen to be a Republican
I don't care for the catchphrases when they're used on me, but I expect any politician I support to have a very good command of his rhetoric. Being right is definitely more important than being flowery, but if you can't sell your ideas to those who aren't already on-board you won't take them very far. Chris Dodd is, on policy, just as solid as Obama, and I'd happily vote for him if he was the nominee. I still wouldn't view his total lack of charisma as anything approaching a positive.
Especially if you happen to be a Republican
THE first act of the extended drama that is this year's American election ended this week in Florida, with the last of the early primaries that have taken the presidential hopefuls from the plains of Iowa to the mountains of New Hampshire and from the Nevada desert to South Carolina's coast. These early states have served their purpose well, narrowing a field of almost 20 down to four serious contenders (two Democrats and two Republicans) and proving much about the character, intellect and staying power of the principal players.
Act II starts and finishes almost immediately. On February 5th more than 20 states will vote, and by the end of that day half the delegates to the late-summer conventions, where the nominees will be anointed, will have been chosen. Whether there is a third act—a long tense hunt for delegates from the remaining states, which could take months longer—will depend on how finely balanced a result “Super Tuesday†delivers. It is even possible that one or other nomination will be decided only at the conventions: a nail-biting Act IV. And only then, of course, will the actual election to replace George Bush in the White House begin.
The process of choosing the next leader of the world's most powerful country, in other words, is still at an early stage. But it has already delivered big surprises. The biggest has come on the Republican side. A few months ago the party looked set to tear itself apart, with no fewer than five front-runners, each representing a different strand of conservatism, vying for supremacy. But a brutal triage has taken place. Fred Thompson was speedily eliminated for being only a poor man's Ronald Reagan; Mike Huckabee stunned in Iowa, but has proved unable to spread his appeal beyond evangelical Christians and looks doomed too. And on January 29th Rudy Giuliani, an early favourite, was forced from the stage in Florida. He had staked everything on a big win in the Sunshine State, leaving the other early primaries to his rivals. In the end, he came a dismal third and quit the race a day later.
The Republican race thus boils down to a straight fight between a competent chameleon and a cantankerous crusader (see article). Mitt Romney is a smooth businessman-cum-politician. Unlike everybody else still in the race, he has actually run a lot of things—a state, a huge business and an Olympic games—and done it pretty well. If only he believed in something, he would be a powerful force; sadly, his political colours appear to change depending on his audience. By contrast, Senator John McCain lacks Mr Romney's managerial vim (and his youth); but he has never been afraid to speak his mind, bravely defying his party's line on immigration, torture, global warming and campaign finance—and he has considerable support among independent voters. This newspaper backed Mr McCain in the 2000 primaries; the case for him being the Republican candidate this time seems even stronger.
Nasty, brutish and long
The Democrats have been just as surprising. A race that once looked like a walkover for Hillary Clinton has proved to be anything but. Barack Obama has emerged as a charismatic political presence, running a tightly organised, exciting campaign. Mrs Clinton has fought an oddly poor one, hindered in unexpected measure by her husband. Far from adding star power, Bill Clinton has proved a source of rancour and controversy. His ranting attacks on Mr Obama, and his clumsy attempts to pigeonhole his wife's rival as a black candidate with limited appeal to whites, triggered this week's endorsement of Mr Obama by Senator Edward Kennedy and by Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of JFK, who says that Mr Obama reminds her of her father. Independent voters may now flinch about the nastiness of a Clinton White House.
It is still probably—just—Mrs Clinton's race to lose. She managed to “win†a non-competitive race in Florida this week; and some of the doubts her attack dogs have raised about Mr Obama's lack of experience and the young senator's preference for vague uplift over crisp detail are certainly to the point. John Edwards's withdrawal from the race on January 30th will probably benefit her too. But Mrs Clinton goes into Super Tuesday having so far failed to convince plenty of broadly sympathetic people, including this newspaper, that she should be the automatic Democratic choice.
And her struggle is indeed likely to continue. Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats award their primary delegates on a proportional basis. So it is likely that for Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton at least, there will be an Act III, and possibly more, after Super Tuesday. The play is far from over. But the Republicans should be surprisingly content with the show so far.
It's not even like I don't like Obama. I just don't like catchphrases and rhetoric. The irony of it is that Obama has relatively solid credentials on some important issues, like government transparency, and even though his healthcare plan doesn't include universal coverage he's still all around solid--but the hope bit is just a little too saccharine for me to stand. If the yes we can thing catches on any harder, I may have to suck off a shotgun.
ITT MrMister reveals his cold, dark heart.
I don't care for the catchphrases when they're used on me, but I expect any politician I support to have a very good command of his rhetoric. Being right is definitely more important than being flowery, but if you can't sell your ideas to those who aren't already on-board you won't take them very far. Chris Dodd is, on policy, just as solid as Obama, and I'd happily vote for him if he was the nominee. I still wouldn't view his total lack of charisma as anything approaching a positive.
Elki on
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This discussion has been closed.
Posts
http://digg.com/television/Arrested_Development_Movie_Plans_Are_In_Motion
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/california/la-me-strike3feb03,1,5942307.story
No im good. Ive been trolling this forum for a while, so I know they tend to lock threads after 100 pages.
I think that Obama can pull through on tuesday. Maybe its just bias from talking to the people on my college but there seems to be a landslide of support for him around here.
but they're listening to every word I say
On the black screen
And I have to work that night. Oh well, it's for the best I assume - better to deal with customers and find out the result afterwards than spend that night on an emotional roller coaster.
Where are you at?
And man you turned out to know how we operate around here and all my hard work to redirect you to the right place was unnecessary in the end.
See? This is what I get for caring.
Super Tuesday, do not disappoint me.
What the fuck? I didn't approve that. Who are you?
On the black screen
Oh shit, it is less than a day away. I'm so unprepared.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/marty-kaplan/it-depends-on-what-meanin_b_84661.html
actually that was the best way to start a new thread.
This my new sig. I will spoiler it.
Locking thread/making new thread is simpler than locking a thread, and waiting for a new thread, and making sure that there aren't duplicate threads.
I think you meant lurking rather than trolling, but otherwise good show.
It's also less fun. You big, Economist loving meanie.
CHANG IS THE CENTRAL ISSUE IN THIS ELECTION!
Might help with the oldies.
Does Lake Wobegon send a delegate?
Elks is from Sudan. Not a democratic bone in his body.
He does this because it is good for you.
Chang is inexperienced! Hillary is the only candidate whose ticket is ready for Dai Wong!
On the black screen
Ring ring ring ring, banana-phone!.
Nah, trolling's used in that way as well. Think of it like this definition:
Ie, dredging along the forum to see what you get. It's not used as much anymore, but it's not unheard of.
On the topic of Super Tuesday, I know American Samoa and West Virginia are the first results to come in - about what time should we be expecting them?
Is there someone in your room holding a machette right now, Will? Just blink twice if the answer is yes.
You sign a waiver if you vote in the Republican Primary to state that you're going to be voting for the Republican candidate. Insofar as I know, it's non-enforcible, it's just their attempt to make it a closed Primary against state law.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0345866120080204?sp=true
Highlights:
New Friggin' Jersey tied at 43
Obama 47, Clinton 42 in Missouri
Obama 46, Clinton 40 in California
Zogby.
But damnit, I don't want to get optimistic. ._.
New Jersey's no longer an inevitable Clinton victory and here I am in frigging Pennsylvania.
Yeah, I made the anti Zogby arguments yesterday. This is his phone poll which was a little better and he's 3 for 4 (got NH wrong but had it trending Clinton really late apparently) this primary season and had SC being a big win for Obama (though obviously not that big).
For now though: no overconfidence, he'll still be destroyed by the Clinton machine. Get out and prove a movement can beat a machine people!
John Zogby is going to fuck my brain.
Again.
Interesting. This Hobo down by the bridge came to different conclusions.
Professor Doctor Happypants polling shows:
Obama 38, Clinton 12, Cheese 50 in Wisconsin, Obama winning by 2 points in Arizona, and Gravel winning Oklahoma.
Guess we'll have to wait and see who turns out closest.
If I said Reuters/C-SPAN would you feel better?
He has Romney leading in CA by 8 points.
It's like he sniffs airplane glue then flips a coin.
Worst case when you play like you're 10 behind and you really are up is winning by 10, or 15, or 20. So yeah.
Guys, we're losing! Get out there and make a difference.
Yeah...that sounds, uh, sketchy at best. Dammit.
Alright, we really are losing. Zogby is on crack.