China gains the most by doing nothing here, I think. It costs them nothing to watch their rivals probe each other in rather public ways and glean data from it.
Yep the wisest way to learn something is to watch an idiot fuck it up and then not do what that idiot did
Besides which, chin isn't interested in eastern europe, not when it can just roll into Africa and just buy up everything in Britain.
Further, NATO is like a whole continent away from them so it's not like they give a shit if it expands right into moscow's suburbs.
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ElJeffeNot actually a mod.Roaming the streets, waving his gun around.Moderator, ClubPAmod
Just a friendly heads up to our friendly neighborhood troll.
It is very easy to figure out who you are, and banning you while removing all of your content requires literally a single button press.
I mean, you do you, but there are probably easier places to spread your bullshit.
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
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zepherinRussian warship, go fuck yourselfRegistered Userregular
I mean, China is going to take the opportunity to make plays here or there (probably increasing their presence/influence in the 'Stans), but I ddon't see them trying to swipe territory from the russian federation.
one theory is that china is basically watching this to see what happens. As this would provide them with lots of information on how a Taiwan invasion would play out.
They're not looking to invade russia militarily for the reasons brought up (nukes, etc).
I am honestly surprised that Taiwan hasn’t fortified every inch of their coastline. Ukraine is digging trenches right now.
I mean, China is going to take the opportunity to make plays here or there (probably increasing their presence/influence in the 'Stans), but I ddon't see them trying to swipe territory from the russian federation.
one theory is that china is basically watching this to see what happens. As this would provide them with lots of information on how a Taiwan invasion would play out.
They're not looking to invade russia militarily for the reasons brought up (nukes, etc).
I am honestly surprised that Taiwan hasn’t fortified every inch of their coastline. Ukraine is digging trenches right now.
There's only a few parts of the Taiwanese coastline that are actually suitable landing sites, and they do have various fortifications. The islands closer to the Chinese mainland are very extensively fortified.
Dongs Galore on
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RingoHe/Hima distinct lack of substanceRegistered Userregular
I disagree with the assertion that the US is trying to start a war or is planning on direct military action in Ukraine. For starters, shuffling 3K troops east and sending tons of weapons to Ukraine indicates a supportive stance, not an assertive one. For another, the 100K+ troops being staged in the theater are Russian, not American. Also, let's consider the co.petency or lack thereof of the current US administration. They can't even get their own political party marching in the same direction, let alone something 4D chess.
I do not agree with the administration's weird press releases. If you want to make a case for supporting Ukraine, make it. Don't wave around weird accusations of Russian parroting and false flags without some serious evidence.
The good news is Macron's heading on over to do some shuttle diplomacy next week.
I mean, China is going to take the opportunity to make plays here or there (probably increasing their presence/influence in the 'Stans), but I ddon't see them trying to swipe territory from the russian federation.
one theory is that china is basically watching this to see what happens. As this would provide them with lots of information on how a Taiwan invasion would play out.
They're not looking to invade russia militarily for the reasons brought up (nukes, etc).
I am honestly surprised that Taiwan hasn’t fortified every inch of their coastline. Ukraine is digging trenches right now.
There's only a few parts of the Taiwanese coastline that are actually suitable landing sites, and they do have various fortifications. The islands closer to the Chinese mainland are very extensively fortified.
That and Taiwan has been focusing mostly on building up a large economy and linking it to both the world and the surrounding countries.
Part of their defense is if they get invaded, the following years will most likely be labeled in economic textbooks as "The Depression"
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zepherinRussian warship, go fuck yourselfRegistered Userregular
I disagree with the assertion that the US is trying to start a war or is planning on direct military action in Ukraine. For starters, shuffling 3K troops east and sending tons of weapons to Ukraine indicates a supportive stance, not an assertive one. For another, the 100K+ troops being staged in the theater are Russian, not American. Also, let's consider the co.petency or lack thereof of the current US administration. They can't even get their own political party marching in the same direction, let alone something 4D chess.
I do not agree with the administration's weird press releases. If you want to make a case for supporting Ukraine, make it. Don't wave around weird accusations of Russian parroting and false flags without some serious evidence.
The good news is Macron's heading on over to do some shuttle diplomacy next week.
So those of us that have been advocating a France/Germany spearheaded diplomatic solution have something to look forward to.
3k vs 100k, eh? I like those odds! The fighting spirit of our army shall be as if every man was the strength of ten!
It's too bad about the other 70k Russian troops, but maybe they'll break after they see what we did to the first 30k
That’s not the point of the American troops. Their job is going to be 2 fold, one is to provide a trip wire. If American troops dies in Ukraine from Russian soldiers. It will provide impetus to provide more direct intervention and escalation.
Second. It is to provide training and logistics support and fresh eyes.
The Ukraine has veterans and soldiers who are competent. But they haven’t used US weapons and equipment on wide scale and Updated military intelligence.
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ElJeffeNot actually a mod.Roaming the streets, waving his gun around.Moderator, ClubPAmod
It is very easy to figure out who you are, and banning you while removing all of your content requires literally a single button press..
Please tell me the button is labeled “Nuke from Orbit” and it’s both shiny and red.
It's actually labeled "Mjolnir".
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
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RingoHe/Hima distinct lack of substanceRegistered Userregular
edited February 2022
Mewmew!
Though actually Goldeneye would be more similar in function
Olga Lautman is a an analyst focusing on the Kremlin
Head of All-Russian Officers' Assembly, Leonid Ivashov, called on Russian leadership not to use force against Ukraine in an open letter to Putin and Russians. Ivashov's comments refute all of Putin's claims and basically call him a liar. Surreal
Text of the letter is in the thread
“I was quick when I came in here, I’m twice as quick now”
-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
Olga Lautman is a an analyst focusing on the Kremlin
Head of All-Russian Officers' Assembly, Leonid Ivashov, called on Russian leadership not to use force against Ukraine in an open letter to Putin and Russians. Ivashov's comments refute all of Putin's claims and basically call him a liar. Surreal
Text of the letter is in the thread
Jesus. You know how I can tell this isn't the USSR anymore? Still, if this isn't a ploy to root out traitors, as one reply suggests, this guy is going to want to be careful.
I wonder if its a thing in Russia like it is in the US that retired military officers are often a stalking horse saying what current military officers want to say but can’t.
This guy doesn’t seem to be some random vet, it looks like he is like the Russian equivalent of a Colin Powell or Norman Schwartzkopf.
Olga Lautman is a an analyst focusing on the Kremlin
Head of All-Russian Officers' Assembly, Leonid Ivashov, called on Russian leadership not to use force against Ukraine in an open letter to Putin and Russians. Ivashov's comments refute all of Putin's claims and basically call him a liar. Surreal
Text of the letter is in the thread
Jesus. You know how I can tell this isn't the USSR anymore? Still, if this isn't a ploy to root out traitors, as one reply suggests, this guy is going to want to be careful.
I do worry that he will accidentally brutally cut his own head off while shaving.
Olga Lautman is a an analyst focusing on the Kremlin
Head of All-Russian Officers' Assembly, Leonid Ivashov, called on Russian leadership not to use force against Ukraine in an open letter to Putin and Russians. Ivashov's comments refute all of Putin's claims and basically call him a liar. Surreal
Text of the letter is in the thread
Jesus. You know how I can tell this isn't the USSR anymore? Still, if this isn't a ploy to root out traitors, as one reply suggests, this guy is going to want to be careful.
I do worry that he will accidentally brutally cut his own head off while shaving.
No no that's not how it's done in Russia, he'll just accidentally fall out the window of the 5th floor. Defenestration is infectious over there.
StarZapper on
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zepherinRussian warship, go fuck yourselfRegistered Userregular
I wonder if its a thing in Russia like it is in the US that retired military officers are often a stalking horse saying what current military officers want to say but can’t.
This guy doesn’t seem to be some random vet, it looks like he is like the Russian equivalent of a Colin Powell or Norman Schwartzkopf.
That puppet video was a very interesting analysis of the situation but I got some tonal whiplash watching a video about something so serious being sponsored by Raid: Shadow Legends
That puppet video was a very interesting analysis of the situation but I got some tonal whiplash watching a video about something so serious being sponsored by Raid: Shadow Legends
haha yes for sure
I watch Binkov occasionally, not sure how accurate the analysis is but it's interesting to think about.
Olga Lautman is a an analyst focusing on the Kremlin
Head of All-Russian Officers' Assembly, Leonid Ivashov, called on Russian leadership not to use force against Ukraine in an open letter to Putin and Russians. Ivashov's comments refute all of Putin's claims and basically call him a liar. Surreal
Text of the letter is in the thread
Jesus. You know how I can tell this isn't the USSR anymore? Still, if this isn't a ploy to root out traitors, as one reply suggests, this guy is going to want to be careful.
I do worry that he will accidentally brutally cut his own head off while shaving.
No no that's not how it's done in Russia, he'll just accidentally fall out the window of the 5th floor. Defenestration is infectious over there.
I wonder if its a thing in Russia like it is in the US that retired military officers are often a stalking horse saying what current military officers want to say but can’t.
This guy doesn’t seem to be some random vet, it looks like he is like the Russian equivalent of a Colin Powell or Norman Schwartzkopf.
Either way he is very brave.
It may be saying something though if the military is already pushing back before the war even starts.
This guy is kind of like Wesley Clark during the G.W. Bush administration... if Wesley Clark were an ultra-nationalist crank. He doesn't like Putin, but he's also very much in favor of intervention when he thinks it will benefit Russia (he supported Russian intervention in Syria, because Assad promised to block construction of a gas pipeline). He's also a 9/11 truther who believes the attacks were carried out by "the political and business circles interested in destabilizing the world order..." He's against invading Ukraine and Crimea, but mainly because he thinks the costs outweigh any benefits, not because he's got any moral or ideological aversion to carving chunks off neighboring states.
Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion.
Honestly if it helps to turn opinion within Russia against invading it’s a good thing even if he is an ultra nationalist crank. He’d also be harder to target for assassination because he doesn’t fit Putin’s usual justification framework of “spies and lying journalists shilling for the west”. I mean Putin could still do it, but it would be unknown territory. Ie it doesn’t fit the usual narrative Putin likes to employ against those he has killed so the response amongst Russian people would be a question mark. There could be a belief amongst even Putin supporters that this guy is “one of them”, and not someone like the usual journalists or activist political figures who they would consider an enemy or traitor
Is a completely different argument than "self-determination" or pretending to give a damn about the Ukranian people. The general's argument is: "We aren't in a position to fight that war Vlad". "We are going to get our asses kicked Vlad". "Losing that war is going to have terrible consequences for Russia Vlad".
All of which are true, why do you think that DC is licking their fingers at this war on the first place? Throwing the already lacking population of Russia into a meat grinder is excellent news....for everybody against Russia.
While I would love to be proven wrong, I wouldn't put too much stock in someone speaking out against Putin getting extra credence because they are also an ultra-nationalist crank. As we've seen here with Trump and the Republican Party, they are happy to turn the knives on anyone who doesn't adhere to the party line.
If anything they hate people who are ostensibly on their same side but openly disagreeing more than the opposition because they are traitors, not just enemies. Still, I don't know that much about the internal power dynamics between Russian military leadership and Putin, and where Ivashov falls in all that.
I do get the feeling that this is going to end up in one of those Catch 22 situations. If Putin ends up backing down and not invading in response to external pressure / Ukraine fortifying / other factors, it will be portrayed as massive overreaction on the part of the US and allies. Meanwhile if Putin does invade in spite of them, it's going to be blamed on the US and allies for egging him on / pressuring him.
While I would love to be proven wrong, I wouldn't put too much stock in someone speaking out against Putin getting extra credence because they are also an ultra-nationalist crank. As we've seen here with Trump and the Republican Party, they are happy to turn the knives on anyone who doesn't adhere to the party line.
If anything they hate people who are ostensibly on their same side but openly disagreeing more than the opposition because they are traitors, not just enemies. Still, I don't know that much about the internal power dynamics between Russian military leadership and Putin, and where Ivashov falls in all that.
I do get the feeling that this is going to end up in one of those Catch 22 situations. If Putin ends up backing down and not invading in response to external pressure / Ukraine fortifying / other factors, it will be portrayed as massive overreaction on the part of the US and allies. Meanwhile if Putin does invade in spite of them, it's going to be blamed on the US and allies for egging him on / pressuring him.
Back in the early-mid ‘90s, one of my teachers said something similar about all actions by the US. We were discussing Bosnia, and he said that being a superpower was a no-win situation when it came to conflicts like that. If you intervene, you are trying to be the World Policeman, but if you do nothing, you will be seen as a paper tiger.
Also, because it wouldn’t be Monday without some shit news to start the week:
New satellite imagery obtained by CNN shows that a large base which held Russian tanks, artillery and other armor near the Ukrainian border has been largely emptied, with the equipment apparently being moved much closer to the frontier in recent days.
Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion.
- John Stuart Mill
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
The LSTs are in Syria getting resupplied. If they they transit to the Black Sea then it’s turbo butt clenching time.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
Intercepted communications obtained by the US have revealed that some Russian officials have worried that a large-scale invasion of Ukraine would be costlier and more difficult than Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin leaders realize, according to four people familiar with the intelligence.
Three of the sources said those officials include intelligence and military operatives.
The officials have also grumbled about their plans being discovered and exposed publicly by western nations, two of the sources said, citing the intercepted communications.
So, either Biden administration is making up fake intercepts, the Russians are playing some kind of 5-D chess, or, as we’ve mostly expected, yeah, they’ve been planning on invading the whole time and just lying about it.
Let not any one pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion.
- John Stuart Mill
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
In as much as i have a coherent theory as to what Purim’s original plan was for this situation, I think it was to snarfle up enough of the East to guarantee a stable land route to Crimea. None of this separatist controlled garbage, straight up Russian land grab. I’m not sure if the LSTs or forces in Belarus were originally part of it or if they were added once additional firepower started flooding in.
The problem, from an ‘everything going to hell’ standpoint is that all the weaponry that Ukraine has gotten not only makes the prospects for a Russian invasion of Ukraine more dicey, it also makes the separatist position less viable. So by making Ukraine less susceptible to Russian invasion, we’ve also increased the potential need for Russia to invade in order to secure their naval base.
Which frankly is on Putin, since his response to Euromaiden is what got us here. The dumb bastard could have responded in many different ways, but instead went with invasion and funding a rebellion. Forget the whole “If all you have is a hammer…” thing. This is what happens if you view every problem as a nail. That saying does work both ways.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
The thing with Putin is that it’s more in his interest to bully Ukraine into whatever it is he wants then it is to actually invade, since Ukraine may not have the forces necessary to hold the east, but the invasion would drain there assets, likely face a significant partisan resistance, and see them eating a shitload of sanctions.
Furthermore, the longer he waits the worse it gets since Kiev is steadily accruing more and more hardware from their neighbours and the US, to say nothing of how the warmer it gets the ballsier the EU can get with economic sanctions.
In as much as i have a coherent theory as to what Purim’s original plan was for this situation, I think it was to snarfle up enough of the East to guarantee a stable land route to Crimea. None of this separatist controlled garbage, straight up Russian land grab. I’m not sure if the LSTs or forces in Belarus were originally part of it or if they were added once additional firepower started flooding in.
The problem, from an ‘everything going to hell’ standpoint is that all the weaponry that Ukraine has gotten not only makes the prospects for a Russian invasion of Ukraine more dicey, it also makes the separatist position less viable. So by making Ukraine less susceptible to Russian invasion, we’ve also increased the potential need for Russia to invade in order to secure their naval base.
Which frankly is on Putin, since his response to Euromaiden is what got us here. The dumb bastard could have responded in many different ways, but instead went with invasion and funding a rebellion. Forget the whole “If all you have is a hammer…” thing. This is what happens if you view every problem as a nail. That saying does work both ways.
There's already a bridge though, much cheaper to just build another one if they want more capacity
Macron and Putin had their meeting today, before Macron heads to Kyiv
On the eve of his trip, Macron, who is also due in Kyiv on Tuesday, told the Journal du Dimanche newspaper: "The geopolitical objective of Russia today is clearly not Ukraine, but to clarify the rules of cohabitation with NATO and the EU."
On his arrival, Macron told reporters: "I'm reasonably optimistic but I don't believe in spontaneous miracles."
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said ahead of the talks: "The situation is too complex to expect decisive breakthroughs in the course of one meeting."
Russia, which seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and backs separatists in the east of the country, wants security guarantees including a promise that NATO withdraws some soldiers from nearby countries and never admits Kyiv into the alliance.
Russia is stating in no uncertain terms that they want the Ukraine as part of their territory.
Russia having so much influence is wild given how small their economy is
Ultimately I think that's why they probably won't invade, or if they did, they'd have a limited, short term achievable objective - wars are incredibly expensive with modern military equipment
Unless they literally just don't care about casualties and want to send in the endless waves of old soviet tanks and planes they have
Russian economy is small but it also means the costs of paying Russian soldiers is lower, the cost of building Russian tanks is lower, the cost of designing new planes is lower.
Basically the idea of Cost of Living but on a national scale if I understand it right.
Russian economy is small but it also means the costs of paying Russian soldiers is lower, the cost of building Russian tanks is lower, the cost of designing new planes is lower.
Basically the idea of Cost of Living but on a national scale if I understand it right.
Plus Nukes. Without them, Russia would have no leverage against US Air Power and its armed forces would be target practice for Precision guided munitions. The tech level difference is so vast, its not even funny.
Shit, without Nukes, people would be discussing regime change if Putin decided to cross the border.
The sky was full of stars, every star an exploding ship. One of ours.
Posts
Yep the wisest way to learn something is to watch an idiot fuck it up and then not do what that idiot did
Further, NATO is like a whole continent away from them so it's not like they give a shit if it expands right into moscow's suburbs.
It is very easy to figure out who you are, and banning you while removing all of your content requires literally a single button press.
I mean, you do you, but there are probably easier places to spread your bullshit.
Please tell me the button is labeled “Nuke from Orbit” and it’s both shiny and red.
Steam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae
Wilds of Aladrion: [https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/comment/43159014/#Comment_43159014]Ellandryn[/url]
There's only a few parts of the Taiwanese coastline that are actually suitable landing sites, and they do have various fortifications. The islands closer to the Chinese mainland are very extensively fortified.
3k vs 100k, eh? I like those odds! The fighting spirit of our army shall be as if every man was the strength of ten!
It's too bad about the other 70k Russian troops, but maybe they'll break after they see what we did to the first 30k
That and Taiwan has been focusing mostly on building up a large economy and linking it to both the world and the surrounding countries.
Part of their defense is if they get invaded, the following years will most likely be labeled in economic textbooks as "The Depression"
Second. It is to provide training and logistics support and fresh eyes.
The Ukraine has veterans and soldiers who are competent. But they haven’t used US weapons and equipment on wide scale and Updated military intelligence.
It's actually labeled "Mjolnir".
Though actually Goldeneye would be more similar in function
Verified.
So, Binkov's weighed in on this and has some interesting andd thoughtful interpretations of what war in ukraine would look like.
Yes I know it's a puppet, but the channel does good research and presents it's findings in an unbiased manner.
Olga Lautman is a an analyst focusing on the Kremlin
Text of the letter is in the thread
-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
- John Stuart Mill
Jesus. You know how I can tell this isn't the USSR anymore? Still, if this isn't a ploy to root out traitors, as one reply suggests, this guy is going to want to be careful.
This guy doesn’t seem to be some random vet, it looks like he is like the Russian equivalent of a Colin Powell or Norman Schwartzkopf.
I do worry that he will accidentally brutally cut his own head off while shaving.
No no that's not how it's done in Russia, he'll just accidentally fall out the window of the 5th floor. Defenestration is infectious over there.
haha yes for sure
I watch Binkov occasionally, not sure how accurate the analysis is but it's interesting to think about.
Sudden affinity for Polonium Tea
It may be saying something though if the military is already pushing back before the war even starts.
- John Stuart Mill
All of which are true, why do you think that DC is licking their fingers at this war on the first place? Throwing the already lacking population of Russia into a meat grinder is excellent news....for everybody against Russia.
If anything they hate people who are ostensibly on their same side but openly disagreeing more than the opposition because they are traitors, not just enemies. Still, I don't know that much about the internal power dynamics between Russian military leadership and Putin, and where Ivashov falls in all that.
I do get the feeling that this is going to end up in one of those Catch 22 situations. If Putin ends up backing down and not invading in response to external pressure / Ukraine fortifying / other factors, it will be portrayed as massive overreaction on the part of the US and allies. Meanwhile if Putin does invade in spite of them, it's going to be blamed on the US and allies for egging him on / pressuring him.
Back in the early-mid ‘90s, one of my teachers said something similar about all actions by the US. We were discussing Bosnia, and he said that being a superpower was a no-win situation when it came to conflicts like that. If you intervene, you are trying to be the World Policeman, but if you do nothing, you will be seen as a paper tiger.
Also, because it wouldn’t be Monday without some shit news to start the week:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/07/europe/yelnya-russian-hardware-ukraine-border-intl/index.html
- John Stuart Mill
There were a lot in the Rittenhouse thread and generally any kind of alt-right adjacent topic we talk about.
{Twitter, Everybody's doing it. }{Writing and Story Blog}
So, either Biden administration is making up fake intercepts, the Russians are playing some kind of 5-D chess, or, as we’ve mostly expected, yeah, they’ve been planning on invading the whole time and just lying about it.
- John Stuart Mill
The problem, from an ‘everything going to hell’ standpoint is that all the weaponry that Ukraine has gotten not only makes the prospects for a Russian invasion of Ukraine more dicey, it also makes the separatist position less viable. So by making Ukraine less susceptible to Russian invasion, we’ve also increased the potential need for Russia to invade in order to secure their naval base.
Which frankly is on Putin, since his response to Euromaiden is what got us here. The dumb bastard could have responded in many different ways, but instead went with invasion and funding a rebellion. Forget the whole “If all you have is a hammer…” thing. This is what happens if you view every problem as a nail. That saying does work both ways.
Furthermore, the longer he waits the worse it gets since Kiev is steadily accruing more and more hardware from their neighbours and the US, to say nothing of how the warmer it gets the ballsier the EU can get with economic sanctions.
There's already a bridge though, much cheaper to just build another one if they want more capacity
Macron and Putin had their meeting today, before Macron heads to Kyiv
Russia is stating in no uncertain terms that they want the Ukraine as part of their territory.
Ultimately I think that's why they probably won't invade, or if they did, they'd have a limited, short term achievable objective - wars are incredibly expensive with modern military equipment
Unless they literally just don't care about casualties and want to send in the endless waves of old soviet tanks and planes they have
Basically the idea of Cost of Living but on a national scale if I understand it right.
Plus Nukes. Without them, Russia would have no leverage against US Air Power and its armed forces would be target practice for Precision guided munitions. The tech level difference is so vast, its not even funny.
Shit, without Nukes, people would be discussing regime change if Putin decided to cross the border.