can't you just set your region to us in the account management screen and buy a copy online?
that's what i did, but i guess if you can get someone in the us to get it for less that makes more sense
I tried that but all my cards kept getting rejected. Blizzard support wasn't able to sort it out, and suggested I get a friend to buy a copy and email me the code. Service!
Shame because all I wanted to do tonight was come home and play customs with the people in the PA channel.
So, for example, with Mvp, it knows he beat Moonan, Select, Machine and Boxer 2-0, and that he beat Kiwikaki, Ganzi, DongRaeGu and MMA 2-1. So, he should be a lot better than those first four players, and about twice as good as those last four.
So if you win a best of 3 series, you're at least twice as good as the other guy? That's an extremely silly conclusion.
Uh, well, the idea is that with a sufficient amount of data it works in the long run. It's just trying to find the maximum likelihood estimate that would produce a 2 - 1 victory. But, you don't just play one match, it's factoring in loads of information. That sentence was just to give a vague idea of how the algorithm works. If you won 5 to 4 you'd be 1.25 times better than the other guy, estimated. Then you play other people, those people play people, and in the end the skill estimates tend to get pretty close. I'd say that with the exception of cases where someone has gotten dramatically better or worse, the skill estimates are probably accurate withing a 25 percent margin (I could compute the standard errors but don't have the time right now). So, maybe Coca is worse than Ganzi or whatever, but it's pretty clear that MVP is in the ballpark of 50 times better than InControl, for example.
Well yeah...I've taken statistics. (A long time ago!)
That just struck me as such a remarkably clumsy way to try to express his math in more or less non-math terms (though that is admittedly not an easy thing to do), that I can't help but feel skeptical about the rest of what he has to say afterwards. I feel, fairly or unfairly, that someone who really has their statistical chops down wouldn't dare to use numbers as small as 2 games to 1 even for a simplified example. Statistics is just too completely meaningless at that point. But maybe I'm just being a jerk about it, he certainly appears to be doing math that I have long forgotten how to do so I'm not going to check up on it or anything.
The problem isn't saying "Player A won the series, so he's better than player B". That's why we play series in the first place, because we know a single game is a bad indicator of skill. The problem is trying to say "Player A is 1.25 times better than player B because he's up 5-4". It doesn't really work like that, because of unaccounted factors For example, if all 5 of his wins were on a certain map, and all 4 of his losses were on 4 different maps, you wouldn't say player A is better, you'd say he has a dominant understanding of that map. That doesn't even begin to get into the fact that people have different win-loss ratios at different stages of a tournament, when they are up or down a game, etc. It's this kind of stuff that keeps baseball statisticians employed. It isn't that the sample size itself is low, it's that all wins and losses are considered equal, and that just isn't the case when you're trying to measure player "betterness".
For n=3 to be legit, all starting conditions need to be the same.
Sceptre: Penny Arcade, where you get starcraft AND marriage advice.
3clipse: The key to any successful marriage is a good mid-game transition.
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TannerMS "I'm confidence cause I'm zerg!"Registered Userregular
edited November 2011
I'll be streaming at twitch.tv/tannerms for the next 10 hours or so (with a break for dinner about three hours in). If anyone wants to play some games or help me fix my sound, that would be super awesome!
I'm mostly trying to work on build consistency and eliminating my super shitty bad habits so if you're wathcing and I'm being awful, call me out
Mornings are the best time for jazz. I never wake up and think "let's get some beats bumpin", just a nice smooth way to start my day.
i'm starting to dig on the herbie hancock and chuck corea and weathermen and IT'S ALL MY 6 YEAR OLD SON'S FAULT!!!
(yes, there's a back story to that)
but i do like the jazz for crafting stars, i also like the minimalist techno and goa trance for the same porpoise. good structure, even beat, NO SINGING. its a lot easier to pay attention to something else that way.
In Metalopolis we spawned close and caught each other. He planted a bunch of Spine Crawlers in his mineral line and rushed to Banelings. I expand to out-econ him and get Mutas out but he put a Nydus Worm in my main and dumped a shitload of Banelings on it. I hardly ever see players use Nydus Worms.
Bronze strategies 101. Build roaches, or build banelings. Even if you take a decent amount of drone losses (which you shouldn't) you should still be ahead with your expansion.
In Metalopolis we spawned close and caught each other. He planted a bunch of Spine Crawlers in his mineral line and rushed to Banelings. I expand to out-econ him and get Mutas out but he put a Nydus Worm in my main and dumped a shitload of Banelings on it. I hardly ever see players use Nydus Worms.
You will actually get banelings slower if you put spine crawlers down.
redraptor on
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Dhalphirdon't you open that trapdooryou're a fool if you dareRegistered Userregular
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that's what i did, but i guess if you can get someone in the us to get it for less that makes more sense
I tried that but all my cards kept getting rejected. Blizzard support wasn't able to sort it out, and suggested I get a friend to buy a copy and email me the code. Service!
Shame because all I wanted to do tonight was come home and play customs with the people in the PA channel.
Well yeah...I've taken statistics. (A long time ago!)
That just struck me as such a remarkably clumsy way to try to express his math in more or less non-math terms (though that is admittedly not an easy thing to do), that I can't help but feel skeptical about the rest of what he has to say afterwards. I feel, fairly or unfairly, that someone who really has their statistical chops down wouldn't dare to use numbers as small as 2 games to 1 even for a simplified example. Statistics is just too completely meaningless at that point. But maybe I'm just being a jerk about it, he certainly appears to be doing math that I have long forgotten how to do so I'm not going to check up on it or anything.
Steam: badger2d
It's all about what confidence interval you set.
If you recall your stats, nothing is ever definite.
It's all relative.
Witty signature comment goes here...
wra
Steam: badger2d
For n=3 to be legit, all starting conditions need to be the same.
3clipse: The key to any successful marriage is a good mid-game transition.
I'm mostly trying to work on build consistency and eliminating my super shitty bad habits so if you're wathcing and I'm being awful, call me out
This is the worst thing he's done so far
Fucking unlistenable.
I can't just stand by and allow this
Prism or death
From what I recall, around n=20 is near the lower end of getting decent data. In general.
And that's even after you start fitting the data to a distribution that basically admits "Yeah we're super unconfident about this stuff."
But hey, I've only ever taken like 2 courses in stats.
nerds
nerds
This actually was my thinking.
"Well these methods look really sketchy. But then again MVP is in a completely separate God-tier."
don't hate
Steam ID
A very specific mood.
Witty signature comment goes here...
wra
If you are not listening to Blue Skies Black Death you really should be
i'm starting to dig on the herbie hancock and chuck corea and weathermen and IT'S ALL MY 6 YEAR OLD SON'S FAULT!!!
(yes, there's a back story to that)
but i do like the jazz for crafting stars, i also like the minimalist techno and goa trance for the same porpoise. good structure, even beat, NO SINGING. its a lot easier to pay attention to something else that way.
Joe's Stream.
When I was on my big laddering kick I listened to a Stromkern album on repeat.
Maybe not so calm.
often I am streaming someone else playing SC or have a tv show on
your big laddering kick?
that was what, the late fifties?
Twenties. Wore a zootsuit and played in a Speakeasy.
(i.e. right after the game came out I laddered for 4-5 hours a day)
In Metalopolis we spawned close and caught each other. He planted a bunch of Spine Crawlers in his mineral line and rushed to Banelings. I expand to out-econ him and get Mutas out but he put a Nydus Worm in my main and dumped a shitload of Banelings on it. I hardly ever see players use Nydus Worms.
You will actually get banelings slower if you put spine crawlers down.
this is cooooooool
The mercenary siege tanks are so cool looking.