Eh in the last thread I posted their living stats, its all hella depressing. Russia is literally dying, one way or another its not going to be here for the long haul.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
Well Russia the idea will probably exist. And it will most likely not split into Volgastan and Siberia or whatever. But Ukraine may be able to get its lost territory back, Chechnya and Georgia may recover, and there will absolutely be power struggles and the like.
Russia sees NATO expansion as an existential crisis, this being but one small part of that. Russia could back down in Ukraine and cite Ukrainian localism, Crimea, and a neutering of Europe's expansion into the region as a Win without losing face. They don't need to invade the same way Ukraine MUST fight back.
I agree. At this point, Russia "hasn't gotten involved" in the Eastern Ukraine crisis. Afterall, it's still just "pro-russian" supporters, amirite? So they could very easily just pull back, tell the Russian speaking people in Ukraine to simmer down, that he'll work with the Ukraine government (but he's have to accept them, first... the old guy isn't getting his position back) to make sure they are treated well and this would, more or less, be over. Magically, the unrest in Eastern Ukraine would vanish and Putin still has some bit of a grasp on Ukraine without fully pushing them into NATO's loving arms.
While I find this whole situation deplorable, it occurs to me that this isn't terribly different from the CIA operations back in the 70's and 80's to destabilize South American governments.
Sure, we weren't looking to annex them, but that's a strawman distinction. We (the USA) certainly weren't doing these things for charitable or heroic goals.
I suppose that I just want to reinforce the point that as deplorable as Russia's actions are, and as deplorable as ours were then, and no matter how much I think our vision of the world is better for Ukranians than Russia's is, the fact remains that we're all using the same shitty playbook.
So I can't really fault these Pro-Russian protesters (the actual protesters, not the militants), because ultimately, they're fighting for the devil they know, instead of the devil they don't know.
That the US did bad shit in the past does not make what Russia's doing right now ok. I mean the US invaded Iraq and Afganistan, and yet we are levying economic sanctions against Russia right now, every government is a hypocrite.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
Again, I'm not losing any sleep condemning the guys shooting up police stations and overthrowing town governments.
There are parts of the Kiev regime that make me a bit squicky, but they're clearly at least trying to do right by their people.
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TraceGNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam WeRegistered Userregular
Interfax via Lenta: Verkhovna Rada building 'surrounded'
The protesters have surrounded Ukraine's parliamentiary building and are calling for the resignation of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, Interfax reports.
Interfax via Lenta: Verkhovna Rada building 'surrounded'
The protesters have surrounded Ukraine's parliamentiary building and are calling for the resignation of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, Interfax reports.
The articles I'm reading make it sound like they want MORE movement against Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine.
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TraceGNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam WeRegistered Userregular
Interfax via Lenta: Verkhovna Rada building 'surrounded'
The protesters have surrounded Ukraine's parliamentiary building and are calling for the resignation of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, Interfax reports.
The articles I'm reading make it sound like they want MORE movement against Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine.
They do.
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
Interfax via Lenta: Verkhovna Rada building 'surrounded'
The protesters have surrounded Ukraine's parliamentiary building and are calling for the resignation of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, Interfax reports.
The articles I'm reading make it sound like they want MORE movement against Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine.
That's what the BBC was reporting this morning. People are pissed that a deadline came and went and nothing happened.
This is an existential crisis for Russia too. They've made this a matter of national pride and so Putin can't/won't back down, no matter the cost.
I'm not even sure at this point what can be done to assuage Russia's issues without setting off Ukraine.
I think Russia can absolutely back down. They have Crimea! That is a huge win. This stuff in the east can be pushed, or put on the back burner to save for later. It gives Russia huge negotiating leverage with Ukraine and the EU/NATO. All Russia needs to do to save face is extract some basic agreement to not fuck with the Russian speakers, which could be utterly toothless but that doesn't matter.
Interfax via Lenta: Verkhovna Rada building 'surrounded'
The protesters have surrounded Ukraine's parliamentiary building and are calling for the resignation of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, Interfax reports.
The articles I'm reading make it sound like they want MORE movement against Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine.
That's what the BBC was reporting this morning. People are pissed that a deadline came and went and nothing happened.
Those in charge in Kiev have, since they were installed, made a bad habit out of issuing grandiose statements that are not true, and threats that they don't do a thing to back up. I'd be pissed too, they seem incompetent and weak and scared (though they have rights to be).
Crimea isn't a win at all, its a money sink that relies on Ukraine's infrastructure to keep functioning (I believe since Russia has had they've had a few brown outs), its only a win in the deluded mind of Putin.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
That the US did bad shit in the past does not make what Russia's doing right now ok. I mean the US invaded Iraq and Afganistan, and yet we are levying economic sanctions against Russia right now, every government is a hypocrite.
Well, the US's shenanigans in Latin America in the 70s, Iraq, and Afghanistan haven't backfired at all.
Interfax via Lenta: Verkhovna Rada building 'surrounded'
The protesters have surrounded Ukraine's parliamentiary building and are calling for the resignation of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, Interfax reports.
The articles I'm reading make it sound like they want MORE movement against Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine.
That's what the BBC was reporting this morning. People are pissed that a deadline came and went and nothing happened.
Are these guys pissed that the Ukrainians aren't fighting back or aren't giving up? I'm having trouble keeping track of all the factions right now.
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
That the US did bad shit in the past does not make what Russia's doing right now ok. I mean the US invaded Iraq and Afganistan, and yet we are levying economic sanctions against Russia right now, every government is a hypocrite.
Well, the US's shenanigans in Latin America in the 70s, Iraq, and Afghanistan haven't backfired at all.
Interfax via Lenta: Verkhovna Rada building 'surrounded'
The protesters have surrounded Ukraine's parliamentiary building and are calling for the resignation of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, Interfax reports.
The articles I'm reading make it sound like they want MORE movement against Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine.
That's what the BBC was reporting this morning. People are pissed that a deadline came and went and nothing happened.
Are these guys pissed that the Ukrainians aren't fighting back or aren't giving up? I'm having trouble keeping track of all the factions right now.
They're in Kiev and want their government to protect their territorial integrity. The cancellation of the special forces raid in Donetsk riled quite a few feathers amongst the Maidan and Right Sector folks.
Crimea isn't a win at all, its a money sink that relies on Ukraine's infrastructure to keep functioning (I believe since Russia has had they've had a few brown outs), its only a win in the deluded mind of Putin.
There is rather more value to a territory than its current profitability.
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
Well the 40k troops are one big clue.
But the White House has been warning about this every day for a month, too.
We'll see what happens on/before Thursday, I guess.
Crimea isn't a win at all, its a money sink that relies on Ukraine's infrastructure to keep functioning (I believe since Russia has had they've had a few brown outs), its only a win in the deluded mind of Putin.
There is rather more value to a territory than its current profitability.
Crimea was a drag on Ukraine for a long time, its one reason they kind of Wonka's its leaving. There is no actual value in the Crimea take other than Putin crowing about his usual bullshit.
And for a country in the financial and population straits that Russia has, crowing about taking a drain on an economy like Crimea is about as smart as taking Crimea in the first place. It was not a smart move, it will never be a smart move.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Crimea isn't a win at all, its a money sink that relies on Ukraine's infrastructure to keep functioning (I believe since Russia has had they've had a few brown outs), its only a win in the deluded mind of Putin.
There is rather more value to a territory than its current profitability.
Crimea was a drag on Ukraine for a long time, its one reason they kind of Wonka's its leaving. There is no actual value in the Crimea take other than Putin crowing about his usual bullshit.
And for a country in the financial and population straits that Russia has, crowing about taking a drain on an economy like Crimea is about as smart as taking Crimea in the first place. It was not a smart move, it will never be a smart move.
Regaining formerly owned territory is intrinsically valuable to nation states. East Germany was a drain on West Germany (and still is), and North Korea would be a massive drain on South Korea. But their shared history, language, culture, etc means that simple economic concerns do not matter. Indeed, it may provide additional motivation, to help out their fellow nationals. And there's always the Black Sea Fleet, for strategic concerns.
And I bet there are some wealthy Russians that will be very happy to have a new (but traditional!) warm vacation spot without even leaving the country.
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AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
Black Sea fleet is the only real reason, that and Putin's tiny penis.
Everything else is window dressing to sell it to people.
They had the black Sea thing anyway, and Ukraine/Crimea isn't traditionally russia's anyway, that whole place is a big cluster fuck of turning land over.
And I'm sure those wealthy russians will be super happy with their vacation ports, what with the brown outs and them losing a fortune because economic sanctions. The only people who think this was a good move are as delusional as Putin.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
AManFromEarthLet's get to twerk!The King in the SwampRegistered Userregular
Well they do think NATO is gunning for them, and that Ukraine was joining Europe as a step stone to NATO. If that happened they'd lose Sevastapool most likely.
-The "rawrRussia" shitheads, that are as shitty as the tea party, will totally eat up Crimea as win, even if it's a huge money sink that will bust Russia economic balls in the long run.
-He can't sell anything as a win to the international crowd, most of us pretty much fucking hate the shit head for one reason or another.
-He can't sell it as a win to the non-"rawrRussia" Russians, nor can he really sell a anything as a win because they just don't like him.
I don't think Putin is an idiot, but I think he is currently being incompetent because he wants to project Russia as being strong to the international community and that his bullshit actions are justified. Unfortunately, he's not grasping that isn't going to fucking happen. He will not get international support that matters, NK doesn't fucking matter. His dick waving, is the confirmation that world leaders, who don't pay much attention, needed to know that Russia is weak, those paying attention already knew this.
The smart thing to do would be to cut his loses. Sell Crimea as a win to the nationalistic shithead crowd, to keep them appeased. Accept that he just fucked Russia's image on the international stage and hope, that he didn't just doom his country's economy long term. Then say that Russia has no interest in Eastern Ukraine, stop stirring shit there, push for a toothless measure to calm the few idiots that long for the Soviet days down and then justify not going after Eastern Ukraine, by stating that local dynamics only justified taking Crimea.
Well they do think NATO is gunning for them, and that Ukraine was joining Europe as a step stone to NATO. If that happened they'd lose Sevastapool most likely.
And I think that just shows paranoia. I can't recall prior to this whole thing blowing up a damn thing about NATO wanting Ukraine in it, especially not a Ukraine that can't even be assed to protect itself against foreign agents.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Masked men armed with large machine guns and in full military dress stalk the area around the police station. Their uniforms are unmarked but they are clearly professional soldiers and are obviously in charge here. Many bark orders to the gangs of youths building up the barricades. The Ukrainian government has vowed to take the occupied buildings in Eastern Ukraine and the people here are preparing for war.
Crimea isn't a win at all, its a money sink that relies on Ukraine's infrastructure to keep functioning (I believe since Russia has had they've had a few brown outs), its only a win in the deluded mind of Putin.
There is rather more value to a territory than its current profitability.
Crimea was a drag on Ukraine for a long time, its one reason they kind of Wonka's its leaving. There is no actual value in the Crimea take other than Putin crowing about his usual bullshit.
And for a country in the financial and population straits that Russia has, crowing about taking a drain on an economy like Crimea is about as smart as taking Crimea in the first place. It was not a smart move, it will never be a smart move.
Regaining formerly owned territory is intrinsically valuable to nation states. East Germany was a drain on West Germany (and still is), and North Korea would be a massive drain on South Korea. But their shared history, language, culture, etc means that simple economic concerns do not matter. Indeed, it may provide additional motivation, to help out their fellow nationals. And there's always the Black Sea Fleet, for strategic concerns.
And I bet there are some wealthy Russians that will be very happy to have a new (but traditional!) warm vacation spot without even leaving the country.
I should point out that the number of South Koreans who don't want North Korea back is growing.
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CorehealerThe ApothecaryThe softer edge of the universe.Registered Userregular
If Putin was smart, he would stop now.
Putin hasn't shown himself to be that smart lately. So yeah he'd probably be willing to say fuck it and go for the whole thing in one fashion or another.
Also there is a degree to which events on the ground with the pro-Russian people in Eastern Ukraine might be beyond his control anyways, so shit could still hit the fan without him needing to go in there and stir any more trouble then he already has.
My bet would be that Putin wants not only all of Ukraine, but the former Soviet Union borders plus Warsaw Pact influence in Europe and then some.
Realistically, the Russian majority regions of East Ukraine, maybe a strip around the Black Sea to make Ukraine landlocked and link up with Transnistria.
So any bets on how much more of Ukraine Russia wants?
East of the Dniepir river, and the South along the route through Odessa to Moldova. A clear and easily defended boundary, landlocks Ukraine, gives complete access to their gas resources, energy and gas lines to Crimea, and gives a route for invasion/pressure of Tranistria.
Why does Putin think we have any influence over Ukraine's internal politics? I guess we could always withhold aid if they didnt do what we asked but usually that almost never happens.
Why does Putin think we have any influence over Ukraine's internal politics? I guess we could always withhold aid if they didnt do what we asked but usually that almost never happens.
He doesn't have to think we have any influence. He's trying to imply that by supporting Ukraine's claim to Crimea the US is implicitly endorsing the violence against the Russian minority in Ukraine, and that refusing to protest both equally is clearly a sign of hypocrisy. And because fallacies never apply to political speech, a speaker not following their own advice or having any kind of motive means their claims cannot be judged on their own merits and must be invalid.
And if the US does call for an end to violence against Russians in Ukraine, he can latch onto that easily enough, too, because it potentially sends the message (Putin will certainly say it does at least) that US (and by extension the west's and much of the world's) support for Ukraine is just words, and that Ukraine is alone against Russia in every sense of the word.
Wouldn't Russia just claim those dudes were AWOL and operating under their own volition not orders? Like just say 'they felt so strongly about the plight of the Russian people in Ukraine they defied orders to stay put and went rogue'.
I don't see Putin as not planning for this possibility.
boy that's alot of soldiers that went rogue at once
also a hell of a coincidence that all their shooty stuff happened on basically the same day.
As always, should you or any of your IM force be caught or killed, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions. Good luck, Jim. This tape will self-destruct in five seconds.
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pleasepaypreacher.net
Russia sees NATO expansion as an existential crisis, this being but one small part of that. Russia could back down in Ukraine and cite Ukrainian localism, Crimea, and a neutering of Europe's expansion into the region as a Win without losing face. They don't need to invade the same way Ukraine MUST fight back.
Sure, we weren't looking to annex them, but that's a strawman distinction. We (the USA) certainly weren't doing these things for charitable or heroic goals.
I suppose that I just want to reinforce the point that as deplorable as Russia's actions are, and as deplorable as ours were then, and no matter how much I think our vision of the world is better for Ukranians than Russia's is, the fact remains that we're all using the same shitty playbook.
So I can't really fault these Pro-Russian protesters (the actual protesters, not the militants), because ultimately, they're fighting for the devil they know, instead of the devil they don't know.
pleasepaypreacher.net
There are parts of the Kiev regime that make me a bit squicky, but they're clearly at least trying to do right by their people.
The protesters have surrounded Ukraine's parliamentiary building and are calling for the resignation of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, Interfax reports.
The articles I'm reading make it sound like they want MORE movement against Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine.
They do.
That's what the BBC was reporting this morning. People are pissed that a deadline came and went and nothing happened.
I think Russia can absolutely back down. They have Crimea! That is a huge win. This stuff in the east can be pushed, or put on the back burner to save for later. It gives Russia huge negotiating leverage with Ukraine and the EU/NATO. All Russia needs to do to save face is extract some basic agreement to not fuck with the Russian speakers, which could be utterly toothless but that doesn't matter.
Those in charge in Kiev have, since they were installed, made a bad habit out of issuing grandiose statements that are not true, and threats that they don't do a thing to back up. I'd be pissed too, they seem incompetent and weak and scared (though they have rights to be).
pleasepaypreacher.net
Well, the US's shenanigans in Latin America in the 70s, Iraq, and Afghanistan haven't backfired at all.
Are these guys pissed that the Ukrainians aren't fighting back or aren't giving up? I'm having trouble keeping track of all the factions right now.
They're in Kiev and want their government to protect their territorial integrity. The cancellation of the special forces raid in Donetsk riled quite a few feathers amongst the Maidan and Right Sector folks.
pleasepaypreacher.net
uhoh.
I'm reading into that as basically there being a reason the White House believes Putin will try for something more.
There is rather more value to a territory than its current profitability.
But the White House has been warning about this every day for a month, too.
We'll see what happens on/before Thursday, I guess.
Crimea was a drag on Ukraine for a long time, its one reason they kind of Wonka's its leaving. There is no actual value in the Crimea take other than Putin crowing about his usual bullshit.
And for a country in the financial and population straits that Russia has, crowing about taking a drain on an economy like Crimea is about as smart as taking Crimea in the first place. It was not a smart move, it will never be a smart move.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Regaining formerly owned territory is intrinsically valuable to nation states. East Germany was a drain on West Germany (and still is), and North Korea would be a massive drain on South Korea. But their shared history, language, culture, etc means that simple economic concerns do not matter. Indeed, it may provide additional motivation, to help out their fellow nationals. And there's always the Black Sea Fleet, for strategic concerns.
And I bet there are some wealthy Russians that will be very happy to have a new (but traditional!) warm vacation spot without even leaving the country.
Everything else is window dressing to sell it to people.
And I'm sure those wealthy russians will be super happy with their vacation ports, what with the brown outs and them losing a fortune because economic sanctions. The only people who think this was a good move are as delusional as Putin.
pleasepaypreacher.net
-The "rawrRussia" shitheads, that are as shitty as the tea party, will totally eat up Crimea as win, even if it's a huge money sink that will bust Russia economic balls in the long run.
-He can't sell anything as a win to the international crowd, most of us pretty much fucking hate the shit head for one reason or another.
-He can't sell it as a win to the non-"rawrRussia" Russians, nor can he really sell a anything as a win because they just don't like him.
I don't think Putin is an idiot, but I think he is currently being incompetent because he wants to project Russia as being strong to the international community and that his bullshit actions are justified. Unfortunately, he's not grasping that isn't going to fucking happen. He will not get international support that matters, NK doesn't fucking matter. His dick waving, is the confirmation that world leaders, who don't pay much attention, needed to know that Russia is weak, those paying attention already knew this.
The smart thing to do would be to cut his loses. Sell Crimea as a win to the nationalistic shithead crowd, to keep them appeased. Accept that he just fucked Russia's image on the international stage and hope, that he didn't just doom his country's economy long term. Then say that Russia has no interest in Eastern Ukraine, stop stirring shit there, push for a toothless measure to calm the few idiots that long for the Soviet days down and then justify not going after Eastern Ukraine, by stating that local dynamics only justified taking Crimea.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
And I think that just shows paranoia. I can't recall prior to this whole thing blowing up a damn thing about NATO wanting Ukraine in it, especially not a Ukraine that can't even be assed to protect itself against foreign agents.
pleasepaypreacher.net
pleasepaypreacher.net
I should point out that the number of South Koreans who don't want North Korea back is growing.
Putin hasn't shown himself to be that smart lately. So yeah he'd probably be willing to say fuck it and go for the whole thing in one fashion or another.
Also there is a degree to which events on the ground with the pro-Russian people in Eastern Ukraine might be beyond his control anyways, so shit could still hit the fan without him needing to go in there and stir any more trouble then he already has.
Realistically, the Russian majority regions of East Ukraine, maybe a strip around the Black Sea to make Ukraine landlocked and link up with Transnistria.
East of the Dniepir river, and the South along the route through Odessa to Moldova. A clear and easily defended boundary, landlocks Ukraine, gives complete access to their gas resources, energy and gas lines to Crimea, and gives a route for invasion/pressure of Tranistria.
Old PA forum lookalike style for the new forums | My ko-fi donation thing.
Also turns out the CIA director did indeed go to Kiev to improve intel sharing. That's from Buzzfeed.
I feel like this is one of those situations which would prove my inability to be a politician.
Because my measured response would have been "Go fuck yourself."
My unchecked response would have involved creative uses for Hammers and Sickles.
"Here Russia, have some propaganda. Nope, not even secret, just felt you should have it."
He doesn't have to think we have any influence. He's trying to imply that by supporting Ukraine's claim to Crimea the US is implicitly endorsing the violence against the Russian minority in Ukraine, and that refusing to protest both equally is clearly a sign of hypocrisy. And because fallacies never apply to political speech, a speaker not following their own advice or having any kind of motive means their claims cannot be judged on their own merits and must be invalid.
And if the US does call for an end to violence against Russians in Ukraine, he can latch onto that easily enough, too, because it potentially sends the message (Putin will certainly say it does at least) that US (and by extension the west's and much of the world's) support for Ukraine is just words, and that Ukraine is alone against Russia in every sense of the word.
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