I mean, everyone else they made promises too suddenly has to wonder if they are going to get what they were promised. But it's still long shot territory.
There's no plan, there's no race to be run
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
What if Collins votes no, they don't get the bill passed in time, and Roy Moore loses?
With Conyers and Franken leaving now/soon, would they NEED Collins anymore to pass?
Conyers is in the House and is irrelevant. Franken does not change the number of yea votes they need from 50, so he is irrelevant.*
*Well, technically if Mitch refuses to seat Jones for a period if he wins and refuses to seat Franken's replacement at the same time, he can pass it with 49 votes plus Pence during that time.
Collins was looking for any reason to vote yes. She will desperately look for any other reason. I think she only votes no to save face, but thats unlikely I feel.
Collins was looking for any reason to vote yes. She will desperately look for any other reason. I think she only votes no to save face, but thats unlikely I feel.
I dunno, she just got rolled and her lunch money taken in the national press. That isn't a good look for anybody.
What if Collins votes no, they don't get the bill passed in time, and Roy Moore loses?
With Conyers and Franken leaving now/soon, would they NEED Collins anymore to pass?
Conyers is in the House and is irrelevant. Franken does not change the number of yea votes they need from 50, so he is irrelevant.*
*Well, technically if Mitch refuses to seat Jones for a period if he wins and refuses to seat Franken's replacement at the same time, he can pass it with 49 votes plus Pence during that time.
Franken announced his intention to resign, but did not give a date for it's effect. Almost certainly for that exact reason. If Jones wins in Alabama there will be a brief period of time before he is seated and Strange still has the vote. However, that clock is short. It also relies on Collins and Corker being hard no's when passage is actually questionable rather than a foregone conclusion and principle doesn't cost.
In case people don't realize the Alabama senate is currently filled by a temporary replacement appointed by the governor. He's Republican, and he is absolutely still allowed to vote.
What if Collins votes no, they don't get the bill passed in time, and Roy Moore loses?
With Conyers and Franken leaving now/soon, would they NEED Collins anymore to pass?
Conyers is in the House and is irrelevant. Franken does not change the number of yea votes they need from 50, so he is irrelevant.*
*Well, technically if Mitch refuses to seat Jones for a period if he wins and refuses to seat Franken's replacement at the same time, he can pass it with 49 votes plus Pence during that time.
What are the rules on seating senators?
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RingoHe/Hima distinct lack of substanceRegistered Userregular
What if Collins votes no, they don't get the bill passed in time, and Roy Moore loses?
With Conyers and Franken leaving now/soon, would they NEED Collins anymore to pass?
Conyers is in the House and is irrelevant. Franken does not change the number of yea votes they need from 50, so he is irrelevant.*
*Well, technically if Mitch refuses to seat Jones for a period if he wins and refuses to seat Franken's replacement at the same time, he can pass it with 49 votes plus Pence during that time.
What are the rules on seating senators?
Like McConnell cares about rules (I honestly don't know)
I seem to remember there being a delay in seating Franken initially, even though Republicans were in the minority in the Senate at the time. The rules are probably byzantine and abusable, and I wouldn't be even a little surprised if McConnell attempted to not seat Jones for as long as he is the majority leader.
I seem to remember there being a delay in seating Franken initially, even though Republicans were in the minority in the Senate at the time. The rules are probably byzantine and abusable, and I wouldn't be even a little surprised if McConnell attempted to not seat Jones for as long as he is the majority leader.
Franken had a very close race that spent months in recount and court battle hell. The Governor (Tim Pawlenty - R) did not certify the election until the court battle was completely lost at the end of June. Franken was sworn in as senator within a week.
A quick Googling tells me that there's legal precedence preventing them from simply refusing to seat them (Powell v. McCormack (1969), but the details of that particular case, on Wikipedia at least, aren't super clear to me.
I seem to remember there being a delay in seating Franken initially, even though Republicans were in the minority in the Senate at the time. The rules are probably byzantine and abusable, and I wouldn't be even a little surprised if McConnell attempted to not seat Jones for as long as he is the majority leader.
That was due to recounts and the State not certifying a winner until the matter was fully litigated in the courts.
The related story is that she'd MAYBE CONSIDER changing her vote if things she asked for aren't in it.
She won't, obviously.
I just...I don't see how they care. Writing or not, I doubt that the GOP leaders feel that she has enough leverage to think that they actually need to honor anything that's said or written, if they don't want to
The related story is that she'd MAYBE CONSIDER changing her vote if things she asked for aren't in it.
She won't, obviously.
I just...I don't see how they care. Writing or not, I doubt that the GOP leaders feel that she has enough leverage to think that they actually need to honor anything that's said or written, if they don't want to
Also, the cuts to Medicare are due to standing law. So...
Well Trump is insisting that 20% is the highest he is willing to settle for the corporate tax rate, which might doom this piece of shit bill. They have to keep this budget neutral and a low corporate tax rate means less options for permanent cuts elsewhere. Since this has to go through a committee and we now have a potential for an X-mas showdown. There might be a stronger push from some members of the GOP caucus for implementing a higher than 20% permanent corporate tax rate, in order to attempt to appease the non-rich with permanent cuts elsewhere. Otherwise, this pile of shit might exacerbate the growing list of things that get the GOP curbed stomped next year.
Also annoyed how the GOP keeps yapping about everyone else having lower tax rates, but ignoring that all the deductions are allowing many use corps to pay less or in some cases get returns. These stupid fucks seem to think that most don't realize this shit is going on. The funny thing is a fair number of voters do know this shit is happening, it's why the bill is not polling well. It's not just that the lower and middle classes see fuck all from these cuts. They what a fucking shame this bill is. It doesn't fix anything, it's just shithead rich people looting government funds because their sorry insecure asses, need to find some way to increase their high score.
I don't know how some of this stuff polls in NH, but I'm wondering if this mess will be what causes her to lose next year.
I don't know how some of this stuff polls in NH, but I'm wondering if this mess will be what causes her to lose next year.
Are you talking about Collins? She's a republican from Maine, not New Hampshire. Here in NH we somehow have both a federal delegation of all women Democrats who oppose this tax bill, and a republican-controlled state legislature and Govenor's office trying to suppress college student voters' rights so the aforementioned doesn't happen again.
v Edit: Well yeah, that's the easy answer. I still find it pretty interesting.
I don't know how some of this stuff polls in NH, but I'm wondering if this mess will be what causes her to lose next year.
Are you talking about Collins? She's a republican from Maine, not New Hampshire. Here in NH we somehow have both a federal delegation of all women Democrats who oppose this tax bill, and a republican-controlled state legislature and Govenor's office trying to suppress college student voters' rights so the aforementioned doesn't happen again.
I don't know how some of this stuff polls in NH, but I'm wondering if this mess will be what causes her to lose next year.
Are you talking about Collins? She's a republican from Maine, not New Hampshire. Here in NH we somehow have both a federal delegation of all women Democrats who oppose this tax bill, and a republican-controlled state legislature and Govenor's office trying to suppress college student voters' rights so the aforementioned doesn't happen again.
College kids rarely vote in local elections?
Funny you should mention that.
Local NPR had on a local Representative from the 15th District of Illinois.
Spoiler contains map to give an idea how large this district is...
So.. notice how it curls around Champaign/Urbana? That's where the University of Illinois is. And the rep fully supports the parts of the bill that gut tax exemptions for grad students and such. His reasoning? Well.. he represents people who work at UIUC, but not the majority of students themselves, so he has to look out for his constituents! His district includes Eastern Illinois University and one of the campuses of Southern Illinois University, it appears, but.. hey, they aren't UIUC!
(I want to find a link to the story but sadly local NPR hasn't posted it online just yet.)
I don't know how some of this stuff polls in NH, but I'm wondering if this mess will be what causes her to lose next year.
Are you talking about Collins? She's a republican from Maine, not New Hampshire. Here in NH we somehow have both a federal delegation of all women Democrats who oppose this tax bill, and a republican-controlled state legislature and Govenor's office trying to suppress college student voters' rights so the aforementioned doesn't happen again.
College kids rarely vote in local elections?
Funny you should mention that.
Local NPR had on a local Representative from the 15th District of Illinois.
Spoiler contains map to give an idea how large this district is...
So.. notice how it curls around Champaign/Urbana? That's where the University of Illinois is. And the rep fully supports the parts of the bill that gut tax exemptions for grad students and such. His reasoning? Well.. he represents people who work at UIUC, but not the majority of students themselves, so he has to look out for his constituents! His district includes Eastern Illinois University and one of the campuses of Southern Illinois University, it appears, but.. hey, they aren't UIUC!
(I want to find a link to the story but sadly local NPR hasn't posted it online just yet.)
No, SIU is in Carbondale which is IL-12.
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AthenorBattle Hardened OptimistThe Skies of HiigaraRegistered Userregular
I don't know how some of this stuff polls in NH, but I'm wondering if this mess will be what causes her to lose next year.
Are you talking about Collins? She's a republican from Maine, not New Hampshire. Here in NH we somehow have both a federal delegation of all women Democrats who oppose this tax bill, and a republican-controlled state legislature and Govenor's office trying to suppress college student voters' rights so the aforementioned doesn't happen again.
College kids rarely vote in local elections?
Funny you should mention that.
Local NPR had on a local Representative from the 15th District of Illinois.
Spoiler contains map to give an idea how large this district is...
So.. notice how it curls around Champaign/Urbana? That's where the University of Illinois is. And the rep fully supports the parts of the bill that gut tax exemptions for grad students and such. His reasoning? Well.. he represents people who work at UIUC, but not the majority of students themselves, so he has to look out for his constituents! His district includes Eastern Illinois University and one of the campuses of Southern Illinois University, it appears, but.. hey, they aren't UIUC!
(I want to find a link to the story but sadly local NPR hasn't posted it online just yet.)
No, SIU is in Carbondale which is IL-12.
SIU has 2 campuses, Edwardsville and Carbondale, Just like University of Illinois has 2 campuses (Chicago and Urbana-Champaign).
Susan Collins' career will be fine. She has enough popularity built up that she can afford to take a hit over this. Plus, based on what I've seen/heard locally, I'm not convinced the tax bill is super unpopular up here. There's a lot of Trump-supporting Republicans in this neck of the woods, and lots of people who have swallowed the "it's a tax cut for everyone" thing hook, line, and sinker.
I don't know how some of this stuff polls in NH, but I'm wondering if this mess will be what causes her to lose next year.
Are you talking about Collins? She's a republican from Maine, not New Hampshire. Here in NH we somehow have both a federal delegation of all women Democrats who oppose this tax bill, and a republican-controlled state legislature and Govenor's office trying to suppress college student voters' rights so the aforementioned doesn't happen again.
College kids rarely vote in local elections?
Funny you should mention that.
Local NPR had on a local Representative from the 15th District of Illinois.
Spoiler contains map to give an idea how large this district is...
So.. notice how it curls around Champaign/Urbana? That's where the University of Illinois is. And the rep fully supports the parts of the bill that gut tax exemptions for grad students and such. His reasoning? Well.. he represents people who work at UIUC, but not the majority of students themselves, so he has to look out for his constituents! His district includes Eastern Illinois University and one of the campuses of Southern Illinois University, it appears, but.. hey, they aren't UIUC!
(I want to find a link to the story but sadly local NPR hasn't posted it online just yet.)
No, SIU is in Carbondale which is IL-12.
SIU has 2 campuses, Edwardsville and Carbondale, Just like University of Illinois has 2 campuses (Chicago and Urbana-Champaign).
I know, I went to Southern. Edwardsville is suburban St Louis and even further west (and IL-13), so I figured you were confused about Carbondale. Which is closer to the borders on the map, and the way it's labelled on the map is semi-misleading.
I think we've already crossed the Rubicon and Republican legislators are going "who cares what my constituents think of this policy, they'll vote Republican anyway, what do my donors want."
I think we've already crossed the Rubicon and Republican legislators are going "who cares what my constituents think of this policy, they'll vote Republican anyway, what do my donors want."
I mean, he's not wrong.
There's no plan, there's no race to be run
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
I would like someone to ask (on the senate floor) exactly what the number is. What is the amount of wealth that the rich and the corporations need before the other 95% start seeing it?
I'd be interested in the answer
It'd be like that scene in Breaking Bad. "How big does this pile have to be?"
It will always be argued we've never reached the T* point of the Laffer Curve.
Republican tax policy assumes it's actually the Laffer Straight Line.
Susan Collins' career will be fine. She has enough popularity built up that she can afford to take a hit over this. Plus, based on what I've seen/heard locally, I'm not convinced the tax bill is super unpopular up here. There's a lot of Trump-supporting Republicans in this neck of the woods, and lots of people who have swallowed the "it's a tax cut for everyone" thing hook, line, and sinker.
I really don't think so. Collins is like Murkowski who has saw her party drift away from her and has had to build up a coalition of Moderate R's, Independents, and swing-Dems to remain in power. Collins really can't afford to betray the moderate image too much or that invincibility buff goes away fast.
Along with the possibility of her getting outright primaried by Le Page or some such.
A friend of mine who lives in Maine - Pixie, please confirm, deny or clarify - says that part of the problem is that the Dem opposition has been split between several candidates, no one of whom can get a big enough slice of the pie to mount a challenge.
Posts
Either is equally detestable
They have much different impacts on what she does next though.
Not going to hold my breath
I mean, everyone else they made promises too suddenly has to wonder if they are going to get what they were promised. But it's still long shot territory.
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
This is the most clear path to defeating this nightmare. Collins flips because she was lied to, Corker stays put, and Jones wins.
With Conyers and Franken leaving now/soon, would they NEED Collins anymore to pass?
Conyers is in the House and is irrelevant. Franken does not change the number of yea votes they need from 50, so he is irrelevant.*
*Well, technically if Mitch refuses to seat Jones for a period if he wins and refuses to seat Franken's replacement at the same time, he can pass it with 49 votes plus Pence during that time.
I dunno, she just got rolled and her lunch money taken in the national press. That isn't a good look for anybody.
Franken announced his intention to resign, but did not give a date for it's effect. Almost certainly for that exact reason. If Jones wins in Alabama there will be a brief period of time before he is seated and Strange still has the vote. However, that clock is short. It also relies on Collins and Corker being hard no's when passage is actually questionable rather than a foregone conclusion and principle doesn't cost.
What are the rules on seating senators?
Like McConnell cares about rules (I honestly don't know)
Franken had a very close race that spent months in recount and court battle hell. The Governor (Tim Pawlenty - R) did not certify the election until the court battle was completely lost at the end of June. Franken was sworn in as senator within a week.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
On what? Moist towelettes?
The related story is that she'd MAYBE CONSIDER changing her vote if things she asked for aren't in it.
She won't, obviously.
That was due to recounts and the State not certifying a winner until the matter was fully litigated in the courts.
I just...I don't see how they care. Writing or not, I doubt that the GOP leaders feel that she has enough leverage to think that they actually need to honor anything that's said or written, if they don't want to
Also, the cuts to Medicare are due to standing law. So...
Also annoyed how the GOP keeps yapping about everyone else having lower tax rates, but ignoring that all the deductions are allowing many use corps to pay less or in some cases get returns. These stupid fucks seem to think that most don't realize this shit is going on. The funny thing is a fair number of voters do know this shit is happening, it's why the bill is not polling well. It's not just that the lower and middle classes see fuck all from these cuts. They what a fucking shame this bill is. It doesn't fix anything, it's just shithead rich people looting government funds because their sorry insecure asses, need to find some way to increase their high score.
I don't know how some of this stuff polls in NH, but I'm wondering if this mess will be what causes her to lose next year.
Are you talking about Collins? She's a republican from Maine, not New Hampshire. Here in NH we somehow have both a federal delegation of all women Democrats who oppose this tax bill, and a republican-controlled state legislature and Govenor's office trying to suppress college student voters' rights so the aforementioned doesn't happen again.
v Edit: Well yeah, that's the easy answer. I still find it pretty interesting.
College kids rarely vote in local elections?
Wow it's weird when you see someone voluntarily destroy their political career
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
Funny you should mention that.
Local NPR had on a local Representative from the 15th District of Illinois.
Spoiler contains map to give an idea how large this district is...
So.. notice how it curls around Champaign/Urbana? That's where the University of Illinois is. And the rep fully supports the parts of the bill that gut tax exemptions for grad students and such. His reasoning? Well.. he represents people who work at UIUC, but not the majority of students themselves, so he has to look out for his constituents! His district includes Eastern Illinois University and one of the campuses of Southern Illinois University, it appears, but.. hey, they aren't UIUC!
(I want to find a link to the story but sadly local NPR hasn't posted it online just yet.)
No, SIU is in Carbondale which is IL-12.
SIU has 2 campuses, Edwardsville and Carbondale, Just like University of Illinois has 2 campuses (Chicago and Urbana-Champaign).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_Illinois_University
Wow, she's leaning into that letter. I guess I was right previously, when I said it gives her plausible deniability.
I know, I went to Southern. Edwardsville is suburban St Louis and even further west (and IL-13), so I figured you were confused about Carbondale. Which is closer to the borders on the map, and the way it's labelled on the map is semi-misleading.
Rock Band DLC | GW:OttW - arrcd | WLD - Thortar
I mean, he's not wrong.
The harder the rain, honey, the sweeter the sun.
Republican tax policy assumes it's actually the Laffer Straight Line.
I really don't think so. Collins is like Murkowski who has saw her party drift away from her and has had to build up a coalition of Moderate R's, Independents, and swing-Dems to remain in power. Collins really can't afford to betray the moderate image too much or that invincibility buff goes away fast.
Along with the possibility of her getting outright primaried by Le Page or some such.