DALLAS -- Republican incumbent Ted Cruz and Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke have agreed to debate each other three times before the U.S. Senate election in November.
In statements issued Friday, the two agreed to debate domestic policy before live audiences on Sept. 21 at Southern Methodist University in Dallas and Sept. 30 at the University of Houston. A third debate on domestic and foreign policy issues is scheduled on Oct. 16 before a live television studio audience in San Antonio.
Cruz must think he can trounce O'Rourke in the debates. It's the only reason I can think of the incumbent voluntarily giving so much screentime to their opponent.
Cruz must think he can trounce O'Rourke in the debates. It's the only reason I can think of the incumbent voluntarily giving so much screentime to their opponent.
One is on high school football day, one is on pro football day, and one is ona tuesday. The way I see it Cruz got it so only one debate will be watched
Cruz must think he can trounce O'Rourke in the debates. It's the only reason I can think of the incumbent voluntarily giving so much screentime to their opponent.
One is on high school football day, one is on pro football day, and one is ona tuesday. The way I see it Cruz got it so only one debate will be watched
Maybe, but I feel like nowaddays, people pay more attention to the post-hoc spin of debates, rather than the debates themselves.
Even if not many people actually tune in, they damn sure will listen to their favorite pundits pontificate the next day.
Cruz must think he can trounce O'Rourke in the debates. It's the only reason I can think of the incumbent voluntarily giving so much screentime to their opponent.
One is on high school football day, one is on pro football day, and one is ona tuesday. The way I see it Cruz got it so only one debate will be watched
Maybe, but I feel like nowaddays, people pay more attention to the post-hoc spin of debates, rather than the debates themselves.
Even if not many people actually tune in, they damn sure will listen to their favorite pundits pontificate the next day.
Cruz is very good at projecting the kind of smarmy "above-it-all" attitude that low information voters and the media think indicates a high level intelligence and a "serious statesman".
I can see the media narrative is that Cruz won and showed leadership and charisma etc etc. because Beto got excited and showed some emotion. I've only seen one videoclip of Beto (where he answered why kneeling at football games was not disrespectful) but he seems like a guy that gets energized and excited when he talks about his policies.
Personally I like Beto and his attitude from the little I've seen but I am not the national or Texas media
Cruz initially wanted like 5 debates but all of them on Fridays. He tries taunting Beto for missing the first one... and that backfired.
I forget how Cruz did during the presidential debates, but also am guessing he hasn't had an opponent like Beto. Beto has been going around Texas talking to everyone, holding town halls, so I'm gonna say he is vastly more prepared to talk to voters than Cruz is.
I've placed a very high mental block over my memories of the 2016 republican primary debates, so yeah I can't remember how he fared either. I think he might've just coasted and let other people, like Christie and Perry, self-destruct.
I've heard he's a good debater in, like, an actual debate format, but this tends not to be that. Real debates don't give a fuck about sound bites
I've placed a very high mental block over my memories of the 2016 republican primary debates, so yeah I can't remember how he fared either. I think he might've just coasted and let other people, like Christie and Perry, self-destruct.
I've heard he's a good debater in, like, an actual debate format, but this tends not to be that. Real debates don't give a fuck about sound bites
Yeah, Presidential Debates are not School Debates.
If you were inclined to agree with Cruz you were already hopeless
Beto needs to reach people who haven’t heard of him yet, and some nice internet video clips of him being charismatic and emphatically different from the terrible status quo in a debate with a guy that looks like Grandpa Munster with the personality and folksy charm of a swarm of mosquitos will do a lot to get people Googling him
Even if Beto doesn’t win in November, he’s not going away; his national profile is pretty massive now
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ElJeffeRoaming the streets, waving his mod gun around.Moderator, ClubPAMod Emeritus
I've placed a very high mental block over my memories of the 2016 republican primary debates, so yeah I can't remember how he fared either. I think he might've just coasted and let other people, like Christie and Perry, self-destruct.
I've heard he's a good debater in, like, an actual debate format, but this tends not to be that. Real debates don't give a fuck about sound bites
Cruz and every other candidate in the GOP primary was steamrolled by Trump being his normal Trumpy self. It's hard to predict how Cruz will perform when the only recent example of him debating is against a guy who used the rhetorical equivalent of "your FACE is a foreign policy".
I do agree that he will probably perform well on points while still communicating that he is a giant goober who deserves an atomic wedgie.
It's worth pointing out that the consensus of his pundit supporters is that he's a great senator with awesome ideas, but he's also a charismatic black hole who doesn't fare well when having to interact with actual hoo-mans.
ElJeffe on
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What's actually going to happen, though? A small fine after the election or something? A strongly worded letter saying "Hey, please don't do that, you guys."?
+11
IlpalaJust this guy, y'knowTexasRegistered Userregular
Well, given what we've seen regarding Republicans committing campaign finance violations.
FF XIV - Qih'to Furishu (on Siren), Battle.Net - Ilpala#1975
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Fuck Joe Manchin
This isn't even the first time he's done this. He got caught doing literally the exact same thing, with the exact same envelopes during the 2016 Primary.
I've said it before, but any democrat not running on election reform deserves to lose. and if they don't want election reform, I can only imagine it's because they're shady and deserve to lose
edit: there needs to be consequences for breaking the law. I personally feel it should be automatic removal from the race and being barred from holding political office.
Montana Senate - CBS/YouGov - Tester (D) +2, no previous poll (for this pollster, of course)
Missouri Senate - CBS/YouGov - Tie, no previous poll. This is the FOURTH pollster to have this come back a tie, in a row.
Minnesota Senate - Star Tribune/Mason Dixon - Klobuchar (D) +30, Smith (D) +7, no previous polls for either.
West Virginia Senate - Emerson - Manchin (D) +12, no previous poll
Nevada Senate - Gravis - Rosen (D) +2, previous poll Rosen +4
Shortytouching the meatIntergalactic Cool CourtRegistered Userregular
re: cruz/beto debate
I'm not sure how much it will matter, mainly because I'm not sure political debates in general matter
I'm pretty sure that they don't convince a significant number of people of anything (iirc most people thought HRC won all of her debates with Trump but she didn't reap much from that in the way of actual polling/votes)
but I do think that whoever wins them can see a big boost in the energy of their extant supporters, and that's worth something
CNN polls are both likely voter models. I'm not searching for all of the ones Jragghen posted.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
I'm not sure how much it will matter, mainly because I'm not sure political debates in general matter
I'm pretty sure that they don't convince a significant number of people of anything (iirc most people thought HRC won all of her debates with Trump but she didn't reap much from that in the way of actual polling/votes)
but I do think that whoever wins them can see a big boost in the energy of their extant supporters, and that's worth something
they create media narratives. generally the races do trend back toward their fundamentals over time but i don't think they don't matter entirely.
i also think debates can help vs an incumbent in a statewide or smaller race in the current environment because name recognition is valuable and it's basically free airtime.
I'm not sure how much it will matter, mainly because I'm not sure political debates in general matter
I'm pretty sure that they don't convince a significant number of people of anything (iirc most people thought HRC won all of her debates with Trump but she didn't reap much from that in the way of actual polling/votes)
but I do think that whoever wins them can see a big boost in the energy of their extant supporters, and that's worth something
What Beto needs more then anything else is for his supporters to believe that he can win a federal election in Texas. Like polls be damned, that psychological cloud that tells people to just stay home, you're hopelessly outnumbered in this state, don't even bother has to be pushed away.
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Come Overwatch with meeeee
I've placed a very high mental block over my memories of the 2016 republican primary debates, so yeah I can't remember how he fared either. I think he might've just coasted and let other people, like Christie and Perry, self-destruct.
I've heard he's a good debater in, like, an actual debate format, but this tends not to be that. Real debates don't give a fuck about sound bites
Cruz and every other candidate in the GOP primary was steamrolled by Trump being his normal Trumpy self. It's hard to predict how Cruz will perform when the only recent example of him debating is against a guy who used the rhetorical equivalent of "your FACE is a foreign policy".
I do agree that he will probably perform well on points while still communicating that he is a giant goober who deserves an atomic wedgie.
It's worth pointing out that the consensus of his pundit supporters is that he's a great senator with awesome ideas, but he's also a charismatic black hole who doesn't fare well when having to interact with actual hoo-mans.
tl;dw = The 2012 Presidential primary in TX got screwed up and twice delayed, so turnout was very low. His establishment opponent tke Lt Gov ran a weird campaign(wait for the campaign song) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50c0c-KIbR8
and he won an even lower turnout primary runoff. As a result, the more activist, insurgent candidate won and that was Cruz. The establishment guy held his 45% but Cruz just garnered the entire "other" vote. Uncontested primaries in Texas, including the GOP Senate one this year, have got a substantially higher turnout than an open seat primary.
So this is the first time he's really facing a straight up, head to head match up where he's not just the insurgent guy
I'm not sure how much it will matter, mainly because I'm not sure political debates in general matter
I'm pretty sure that they don't convince a significant number of people of anything (iirc most people thought HRC won all of her debates with Trump but she didn't reap much from that in the way of actual polling/votes)
but I do think that whoever wins them can see a big boost in the energy of their extant supporters, and that's worth something
The other thing debates can do, is sink your opponent. As long as you feel comfortable that YOU won't shit the bed, offering up debates is a good strategy. If your opponent accepts, you can hope for a significant stumble that'll show them a fool. If they refuse, you get to slap them around as cowardly.
At a national level, the one thing that pisses me off is the expectations game. Hillary won those debates, but she didn't absolutely demolish Trump. Trump didn't crap in his hand and fling it at the moderator. Therefore, Hillary didn't meet expectations, Trump exceeded his, and so it was pushed as a tie.
And that's fucking ludicrous. Debates shouldn't be judged on a scale.
Almost too good to be true. Pollster is SSRS which has an A- rating from 538 (good sign). Two 50% polls in states that we need to pick up to have any hope of capturing a majority. And with single digits just outside the margins for error (+5 and +7).
This feel like an outlier, if only because of how much closer the polling for these races has been in the past couple of weeks (538s aggregate has Bresden at minus 4 or tied - depending on model). It could be the likely voter model, or it's possible the races are starting to shift away from the Republicans.
It's worth noting that on the Tennessee governor's side Lee is up 52 to 43 on Dean, so there's going to need to be at least some split ticket voting to see Bresden win. That's probably a handicap not yet reflected in the polling, but it might not matter. I don't know much about Tennessee's voting history in that regard.
It's been an atrocious week for Republicans generally.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
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ChaosHatHop, hop, hop, HA!Trick of the lightRegistered Userregular
I'm not sure how much it will matter, mainly because I'm not sure political debates in general matter
I'm pretty sure that they don't convince a significant number of people of anything (iirc most people thought HRC won all of her debates with Trump but she didn't reap much from that in the way of actual polling/votes)
but I do think that whoever wins them can see a big boost in the energy of their extant supporters, and that's worth something
On one hand I think this is true because I don't think there is that much to gain from winning a debate, but there is a lot to lose from like, badly losing a debate in terms of saying something shitty or just falling apart completely. Which is why Cruz agreeing seems crazy since it's all risk no reward.
Almost too good to be true. Pollster is SSRS which has an A- rating from 538 (good sign). Two 50% polls in states that we need to pick up to have any hope of capturing a majority. And with single digits just outside the margins for error (+5 and +7).
This feel like an outlier, if only because of how much closer the polling for these races has been in the past couple of weeks (538s aggregate has Bresden at minus 4 or tied - depending on model). It could be the likely voter model, or it's possible the races are starting to shift away from the Republicans.
It's worth noting that on the Tennessee governor's side Lee is up 52 to 43 on Dean, so there's going to need to be at least some split ticket voting to see Bresden win. That's probably a handicap not yet reflected in the polling, but it might not matter. I don't know much about Tennessee's voting history in that regard.
Ducey is up 3 in that poll on the Arizona governor's side. That is a ton of ticket splitting.
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
It's been an atrocious week for Republicans generally.
I do have to wonder if the Kavanaugh hearings are having an effect. If so, we should see it in other polls coming out this week in other contested races.
It's been an atrocious week for Republicans generally.
I do have to wonder if the Kavanaugh hearings are having an effect. If so, we should see it in other polls coming out this week in other contested races.
Also the Manafort guilty plea, the Puerto Rico denialism, the health care lawsuit...
The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
Posts
Ahem
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-to-hold-3-debates-texas-senate-race/
One is on high school football day, one is on pro football day, and one is ona tuesday. The way I see it Cruz got it so only one debate will be watched
Maybe, but I feel like nowaddays, people pay more attention to the post-hoc spin of debates, rather than the debates themselves.
Even if not many people actually tune in, they damn sure will listen to their favorite pundits pontificate the next day.
Good point. I did not consider the post-hoc spin.
The problem is that despite knowing all the tricks, he has a booger-eating face that inspires the most docile grandma’s to wish to punch it.
I can see the media narrative is that Cruz won and showed leadership and charisma etc etc. because Beto got excited and showed some emotion. I've only seen one videoclip of Beto (where he answered why kneeling at football games was not disrespectful) but he seems like a guy that gets energized and excited when he talks about his policies.
Personally I like Beto and his attitude from the little I've seen but I am not the national or Texas media
I forget how Cruz did during the presidential debates, but also am guessing he hasn't had an opponent like Beto. Beto has been going around Texas talking to everyone, holding town halls, so I'm gonna say he is vastly more prepared to talk to voters than Cruz is.
I've heard he's a good debater in, like, an actual debate format, but this tends not to be that. Real debates don't give a fuck about sound bites
Yeah, Presidential Debates are not School Debates.
If you were inclined to agree with Cruz you were already hopeless
Beto needs to reach people who haven’t heard of him yet, and some nice internet video clips of him being charismatic and emphatically different from the terrible status quo in a debate with a guy that looks like Grandpa Munster with the personality and folksy charm of a swarm of mosquitos will do a lot to get people Googling him
Even if Beto doesn’t win in November, he’s not going away; his national profile is pretty massive now
Cruz and every other candidate in the GOP primary was steamrolled by Trump being his normal Trumpy self. It's hard to predict how Cruz will perform when the only recent example of him debating is against a guy who used the rhetorical equivalent of "your FACE is a foreign policy".
I do agree that he will probably perform well on points while still communicating that he is a giant goober who deserves an atomic wedgie.
It's worth pointing out that the consensus of his pundit supporters is that he's a great senator with awesome ideas, but he's also a charismatic black hole who doesn't fare well when having to interact with actual hoo-mans.
Gene is a Texas state rep
Arguably, Ted Cruz is himself a violation of the Deceptive Trade Practices Act.
What's actually going to happen, though? A small fine after the election or something? A strongly worded letter saying "Hey, please don't do that, you guys."?
Switch - SW-7373-3669-3011
Fuck Joe Manchin
This isn't even the first time he's done this. He got caught doing literally the exact same thing, with the exact same envelopes during the 2016 Primary.
edit: there needs to be consequences for breaking the law. I personally feel it should be automatic removal from the race and being barred from holding political office.
Terence Burlij works for CNN
This portends well!
Switch - SW-7373-3669-3011
Fuck Joe Manchin
Missouri Senate - CBS/YouGov - Tie, no previous poll. This is the FOURTH pollster to have this come back a tie, in a row.
Minnesota Senate - Star Tribune/Mason Dixon - Klobuchar (D) +30, Smith (D) +7, no previous polls for either.
West Virginia Senate - Emerson - Manchin (D) +12, no previous poll
Nevada Senate - Gravis - Rosen (D) +2, previous poll Rosen +4
North Dakota has been real sparse, yeah. Three polls total since February, only one since June and that's a Fox News poll.
I'm not sure how much it will matter, mainly because I'm not sure political debates in general matter
I'm pretty sure that they don't convince a significant number of people of anything (iirc most people thought HRC won all of her debates with Trump but she didn't reap much from that in the way of actual polling/votes)
but I do think that whoever wins them can see a big boost in the energy of their extant supporters, and that's worth something
they create media narratives. generally the races do trend back toward their fundamentals over time but i don't think they don't matter entirely.
i also think debates can help vs an incumbent in a statewide or smaller race in the current environment because name recognition is valuable and it's basically free airtime.
What Beto needs more then anything else is for his supporters to believe that he can win a federal election in Texas. Like polls be damned, that psychological cloud that tells people to just stay home, you're hopelessly outnumbered in this state, don't even bother has to be pushed away.
Come Overwatch with meeeee
WV - registered
NV - likely
MN - likely
MT/MO - registered
I'll start including that.
One of the things that suggests Cruz might be vulnerable despite Texas beyond the national momentum, Trump attacks on him and Beto being charismatic involves his not really being proven in a tough campaign.
Maddow on the backstory, in her usual long form style.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/new-scrutiny-on-cruz-after-wisconsin-win-660542531978?v=raila&
tl;dw = The 2012 Presidential primary in TX got screwed up and twice delayed, so turnout was very low. His establishment opponent tke Lt Gov ran a weird campaign(wait for the campaign song)
and he won an even lower turnout primary runoff. As a result, the more activist, insurgent candidate won and that was Cruz. The establishment guy held his 45% but Cruz just garnered the entire "other" vote. Uncontested primaries in Texas, including the GOP Senate one this year, have got a substantially higher turnout than an open seat primary.
So this is the first time he's really facing a straight up, head to head match up where he's not just the insurgent guy
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
At a national level, the one thing that pisses me off is the expectations game. Hillary won those debates, but she didn't absolutely demolish Trump. Trump didn't crap in his hand and fling it at the moderator. Therefore, Hillary didn't meet expectations, Trump exceeded his, and so it was pushed as a tie.
And that's fucking ludicrous. Debates shouldn't be judged on a scale.
Almost too good to be true. Pollster is SSRS which has an A- rating from 538 (good sign). Two 50% polls in states that we need to pick up to have any hope of capturing a majority. And with single digits just outside the margins for error (+5 and +7).
This feel like an outlier, if only because of how much closer the polling for these races has been in the past couple of weeks (538s aggregate has Bresden at minus 4 or tied - depending on model). It could be the likely voter model, or it's possible the races are starting to shift away from the Republicans.
It's worth noting that on the Tennessee governor's side Lee is up 52 to 43 on Dean, so there's going to need to be at least some split ticket voting to see Bresden win. That's probably a handicap not yet reflected in the polling, but it might not matter. I don't know much about Tennessee's voting history in that regard.
On one hand I think this is true because I don't think there is that much to gain from winning a debate, but there is a lot to lose from like, badly losing a debate in terms of saying something shitty or just falling apart completely. Which is why Cruz agreeing seems crazy since it's all risk no reward.
Ducey is up 3 in that poll on the Arizona governor's side. That is a ton of ticket splitting.
I do have to wonder if the Kavanaugh hearings are having an effect. If so, we should see it in other polls coming out this week in other contested races.
Also the Manafort guilty plea, the Puerto Rico denialism, the health care lawsuit...