The new forums will be named Coin Return (based on the most recent vote)! You can check on the status and timeline of the transition to the new forums here.
The Guiding Principles and New Rules document is now in effect.

[US Federal Congressional Elections 2018] Tester Wins, AZ/FL Too Close

1114115116117118120»

Posts

  • Harry DresdenHarry Dresden Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    tbloxham wrote: »
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Atomika wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.

    If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.

    You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.

    I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.

    I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.

    Same. From twice-over Bush voter to ultra-progressive queer lib feminist.

    Sweet, we just need to get 80 million Republicans to join Penny Arcade.

    Eh, and Spool32 was never actually ‘the base’ from the moment he joined. He was always willing to have a back and forth discussion about things. If we convinced him of anything, it was that democratic policies were better aligned with his own beliefs (economic and personal freedoms, a free and fair market etc. spool32 shows why republicans are so desperate to isolate their voters from democratic ones and prevent a pleasant conversation happening.

    Going to disagree here. While Spool has occasionally sided with us and provided polite conversation (and many times when it wasn’t) he’s definitely the base, he’s just not a Trumper. Get someone like Romney in the White House and we wouldn’t be having this discussion. This is merely a temporary alliance at best.

    I’d love to be wrong, I guess we’ll see in the years to come where this goes.

    Harry Dresden on
  • HappylilElfHappylilElf Registered User regular
    tbloxham wrote: »
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Atomika wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.

    If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.

    You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.

    I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.

    I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.

    Same. From twice-over Bush voter to ultra-progressive queer lib feminist.

    Sweet, we just need to get 80 million Republicans to join Penny Arcade.

    Eh, and Spool32 was never actually ‘the base’ from the moment he joined. He was always willing to have a back and forth discussion about things. If we convinced him of anything, it was that democratic policies were better aligned with his own beliefs (economic and personal freedoms, a free and fair market etc. spool32 shows why republicans are so desperate to isolate their voters from democratic ones and prevent a pleasant conversation happening.

    Going to disagree here. While Spool has occasionally sided with us and provided polite conversation (and many times when it wasn’t) he’s definitely the base, he’s just not a Trumper. Get someone like Romney in the White House and we wouldn’t be having this discussion. This is merely a temporary alliance at best.

    I’d love to be wrong, I guess we’ll see in the years to come where this goes.

    I mean

    Yes if the GOP suddenly somehow became a not utterly batshit insane party willing to destroy the country as long as they get to remain in power they would maybe get some supporters back

    I don't think that's particularly surprising or even remotely in the cards though :P

  • jimb213jimb213 Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Atomika wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    Jragghen wrote: »
    Okay, this is going to come off as doom and gloom, but I'm just being realistic.

    If a recession happens now, Fox News and Trump are going to point to it happening after the Dems took the House and it's all their fault, and the base is going to eat that up.

    You're never going to convince the Republican base to abandon Republicans. They're in the Fox news bubble - those people are gone. Focus on turnout / undecideds / new voters.

    I voted for every Republican available for national office from Bush Sr - Romney, except the occasional Democrat as a rep to keep things honest. I voted for Reagan (vs Carter) in the kindergarden polls they used to do.

    I am now a registered Democrat. You can convince the base.

    Same. From twice-over Bush voter to ultra-progressive queer lib feminist.

    Sweet, we just need to get 80 million Republicans to join Penny Arcade.

    Yup... you weirdos are why my story is similar as well. Good ol' boy conservative from Texas (didn't vote for Dole in 96 'cause I was 17 and 11 months old on election day, but I totally would have), who now volunteers for the more progressive candidates in Democratic primary races who probably won't vote republican ever again unless they become a center-left party so that the democratic party can become actually-progressive/left, not just American-progressive/left.

  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    I think the issue is also that it is unclear if we're talking present spool or historical spool. Present spool is very much not the base, I think there were times where historical spool was a part of the base albeit not the portions of the base that have taken over the party.

    In other news, NY-22 which was called for the Democratic challenger, is tightening and may be changed by the absentee ballots. Brindisi's total lead was adjusted down to about 1,400 votes and there are almost ten times that number of absentees out. With a margin right around .5% this could end up being a heart breaker.

    Nod. Get treat. PSN: Quippish
  • PhasenPhasen Hell WorldRegistered User regular
    Maybe move off of talking about spool and let spool talk for himself. You guys are weird.

    Recount in florida is probably going to happen which means we get some more great images

    bsTWqFj.jpg?1

    psn: PhasenWeeple
  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User, Transition Team regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Baidol wrote: »
    My favorite semi-joke thing this election season has been from Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman where they said a few months back that Democrats are doing well anywhere within 20 miles of a Whole Foods


    Though a fun joke, it is probably more, "Dems do better in higher income areas that have a higher proportion of college educated folks."

    Wait, hmmm...wonder if Whole Foods would be an okay proxy for that.

    Republicans do better in higher income areas, and won outright among households earning over $100k. Democrats are the poor people's party.

    this is super not true. Republicans do great among the rural poor and those with no college education!

  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Yeah the poor in rural areas are most commonly the stupid half of stupid and evil. While the wealthy are most commonly the evil half because they typically know what's what, but don't give a fuck as long as they get those $'s.

  • grumblethorngrumblethorn Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    Yeah the poor in rural areas are most commonly the stupid half of stupid and evil. While the wealthy are most commonly the evil half because they typically know what's what, but don't give a fuck as long as they get those $'s.

    Nice bigotry.

  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator Mod Emeritus
    omg you guys the changing of Spool's political beliefs is not the subject of the thread. It's kinda rude and definitely off topic.

  • PhasenPhasen Hell WorldRegistered User regular
    There greatest corollaries for the party split right now(among whites) are education, rural/urban, and religion. Money doesn't have anything to do with it really.

    psn: PhasenWeeple
  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    Gillum down to .52 percent between him and DeSantis. Still counting votes from Broward and Palm Beach, plus provisional/overseas ballots for all counties, so we could be seeing announcements of a recount soon

  • spool32spool32 Contrary Library Registered User, Transition Team regular
    edited November 2018
    edit: Mods!

    Thank you guys though :)

    spool32 on
  • skyknytskyknyt Registered User, ClubPA regular
    edited November 2018
    Actually, lemme hit up a mod to reopen the appropriate thread.

    skyknyt on
    Tycho wrote:
    [skyknyt's writing] is like come kind of code that, when comprehended, unfolds into madness in the mind of the reader.
    PSN: skyknyt, Steam: skyknyt, Blizz: skyknyt#1160
  • No-QuarterNo-Quarter Nothing To Fear But Fear ItselfRegistered User regular
    oh ffs

  • AtomikaAtomika Live fast and get fucked or whatever Registered User regular
    GA-6 just flipped this morning for McBath (D)

    Notch another

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Baidol wrote: »
    My favorite semi-joke thing this election season has been from Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman where they said a few months back that Democrats are doing well anywhere within 20 miles of a Whole Foods


    Though a fun joke, it is probably more, "Dems do better in higher income areas that have a higher proportion of college educated folks."

    Wait, hmmm...wonder if Whole Foods would be an okay proxy for that.

    Republicans do better in higher income areas, and won outright among households earning over $100k. Democrats are the poor people's party.

    this is super not true. Republicans do great among the rural poor and those with no college education!

    e55gmvekkyfs.png

  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    There are *a lot* of people in the US making under 50k. The rural ones do favor Republicans.

  • VeagleVeagle Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Chicago had an unofficial turnout of ~56%. I'm really happy with how Illinois went.

    I read the first part of this post and expected the number to be over 100... ;)

    Gotta hand it to the new governor. I thought it was a questionable strategy to bombard me, a non-Illinois resident with ads, but Chicago politics gets results!

    steam_sig.png
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Baidol wrote: »
    My favorite semi-joke thing this election season has been from Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman where they said a few months back that Democrats are doing well anywhere within 20 miles of a Whole Foods


    Though a fun joke, it is probably more, "Dems do better in higher income areas that have a higher proportion of college educated folks."

    Wait, hmmm...wonder if Whole Foods would be an okay proxy for that.

    Republicans do better in higher income areas, and won outright among households earning over $100k. Democrats are the poor people's party.

    this is super not true. Republicans do great among the rural poor and those with no college education!

    e55gmvekkyfs.png

    Yup.

    I suspect hidden somewhere in the non-existent cross-tabs of those polls is a rural/urban and white/not-white split and the top-line mostly shows how many urban and "urban" poor there are compared to the Republican base.

  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Baidol wrote: »
    My favorite semi-joke thing this election season has been from Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman where they said a few months back that Democrats are doing well anywhere within 20 miles of a Whole Foods


    Though a fun joke, it is probably more, "Dems do better in higher income areas that have a higher proportion of college educated folks."

    Wait, hmmm...wonder if Whole Foods would be an okay proxy for that.

    Republicans do better in higher income areas, and won outright among households earning over $100k. Democrats are the poor people's party.

    this is super not true. Republicans do great among the rural poor and those with no college education!

    e55gmvekkyfs.png

    This particular cross-tab is also largely impacted by age. Young people make less, even if they're often college educated.

  • DevoutlyApatheticDevoutlyApathetic Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    Viskod wrote: »
    There are *a lot* of people in the US making under 50k. The rural ones do favor Republicans.

    Under 50k is right around 45% of the population if it's household income.

    DevoutlyApathetic on
    Nod. Get treat. PSN: Quippish
  • kaidkaid Registered User regular
    milski wrote: »
    kaid wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    There are reports now that the digital voting machines at 7 Broward County locations completely failed to transmit data and their results are being manually delivered to Tallahassee via thumb drives.

    Broward county is a very dense, very blue area north of Miami (holding Ft. Lauderdale and a number of other cities).

    Wow that could give a ton of votes potentially to the dems
    Phasen wrote: »
    Florida why you gotta do this to me?

    The chads are not going to hang themselves haha. I hope they can get their voting stuff sorted out I am curious how many broward votes this effects because that could be pretty big for the dem candidates.

    "The chads are not going to hang themselves" sounds like a threat because I've been watching too many deep dives on incels lately...

    Its more of florida ballot gallows humor after the whole hanging chad fiasco of bush v gore.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Javen wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Baidol wrote: »
    My favorite semi-joke thing this election season has been from Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman where they said a few months back that Democrats are doing well anywhere within 20 miles of a Whole Foods


    Though a fun joke, it is probably more, "Dems do better in higher income areas that have a higher proportion of college educated folks."

    Wait, hmmm...wonder if Whole Foods would be an okay proxy for that.

    Republicans do better in higher income areas, and won outright among households earning over $100k. Democrats are the poor people's party.

    this is super not true. Republicans do great among the rural poor and those with no college education!

    e55gmvekkyfs.png

    This particular cross-tab is also largely impacted by age. Young people make less, even if they're often college educated.

    It correlates to a lot of things. Doesn't make what I said any less true. Democratic support comes largest the lower down the income scale you go.

    It also isn't necessarily the case that households making 6 figures are inherently headed by the college educated. Maybe their dad owns a dealership. Also, people making under $50k can have masters degrees in education.

  • skippydumptruckskippydumptruck Registered User regular
    Atomika wrote: »
    GA-6 just flipped this morning for McBath (D)

    Notch another

    that's my vooooooooooote

  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Atomika wrote: »
    GA-6 just flipped this morning for McBath (D)

    Notch another

    that's my vooooooooooote

    I guess they couldn't keep a handle on it.

  • Inkstain82Inkstain82 Registered User regular
    Not that it shouldn’t still happen, but the odds of a recount changing the outcome in Florida are minuscule. Half a percent is huge in recount terms.

  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    edited November 2018
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Not that it shouldn’t still happen, but the odds of a recount changing the outcome in Florida are minuscule. Half a percent is huge in recount terms.

    I don't see a recount changing things much, but I do think it's crazy that Nelson, and to a lesser extent Gillum, keeps creeping up. 22k votes when you still need to finish counting the 2 most populated, and the most democratic counties is not out of the realm of possiblity.

    Javen on
  • AtomikaAtomika Live fast and get fucked or whatever Registered User regular
    9apelbtfdmwa.jpeg


    WSJ has an extremely comprehensive breakdown of exit polls for those interested

    https://www.wsj.com/graphics/election-2018-votecast-poll/

  • PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    spool32 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Baidol wrote: »
    My favorite semi-joke thing this election season has been from Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman where they said a few months back that Democrats are doing well anywhere within 20 miles of a Whole Foods


    Though a fun joke, it is probably more, "Dems do better in higher income areas that have a higher proportion of college educated folks."

    Wait, hmmm...wonder if Whole Foods would be an okay proxy for that.

    Republicans do better in higher income areas, and won outright among households earning over $100k. Democrats are the poor people's party.

    this is super not true. Republicans do great among the rural poor and those with no college education!

    As long as they are (everybody now) white.

    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    spool32 wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    Baidol wrote: »
    My favorite semi-joke thing this election season has been from Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman where they said a few months back that Democrats are doing well anywhere within 20 miles of a Whole Foods


    Though a fun joke, it is probably more, "Dems do better in higher income areas that have a higher proportion of college educated folks."

    Wait, hmmm...wonder if Whole Foods would be an okay proxy for that.

    Republicans do better in higher income areas, and won outright among households earning over $100k. Democrats are the poor people's party.

    this is super not true. Republicans do great among the rural poor and those with no college education!

    As long as they are (everybody now) white.

    Along with those minorities who have bought what the party says it is, and are certain the leopard would never eat their faces. (Right up until it does.)

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Atomika wrote: »
    9apelbtfdmwa.jpeg


    WSJ has an extremely comprehensive breakdown of exit polls for those interested

    https://www.wsj.com/graphics/election-2018-votecast-poll/

    e0y9kkd2acs9.png

    Goddamn.

    Especially that "share of the vote" number sneaking in on the left. Fucking 50% basically.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    In general though it's nothing surprising. The Republican base is white, male, less urban, less educated.

    The best people.

  • PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular

    ft25ylnqxg0f.png

    This contradicts the CNN one pretty directly so I don't know which one has been balanced or adjusted
    uz915hljszmv.png
    e55gmvekkyfs.png

    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
  • ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor Registered User regular
    Javen wrote: »
    Inkstain82 wrote: »
    Not that it shouldn’t still happen, but the odds of a recount changing the outcome in Florida are minuscule. Half a percent is huge in recount terms.

    I don't see a recount changing things much, but I do think it's crazy that Nelson, and to a lesser extent Gillum, keeps creeping up. 22k votes when you still need to finish counting the 2 most populated, and the most democratic counties is not out of the realm of possiblity.

    A hand recount might, for better or worse, because "hands"

    I have a hard time imaginging a scenario where just feeding them all through the scanner again would change matters. (Unless there's still a manual ballot review/screen?)

  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    There were two different sets of exits conducted, so that might be the reason for discrepancies. One was your usual suspects, the other was I think the AP and Fox?

    The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    And just like that, the caravan disappears from the news. Like everyone on the left predicted.

    The idea that your vote is a moral statement about you or who you vote for is some backwards ass libertarian nonsense. Your vote is about society. Vote to protect the vulnerable.
  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    And just like that, the caravan disappears from the news. Like everyone on the left predicted.

    It's almost like the media is constantly complicit in advancing a right-wing narrative.

  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    shryke wrote: »
    And just like that, the caravan disappears from the news. Like everyone on the left predicted.

    It's almost like the media is constantly complicit in advancing a right-wing narrative.

    Well indirectly complicit. They're just really fucking stupid and take the bait every time.

  • So It GoesSo It Goes We keep moving...Registered User regular
    @enlightenedbum please make a new thread

This discussion has been closed.