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The [Primary Thread] In Which We Behave Like Civilized People

ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
So hey, let's talk about the Democratic primary! There are a bunch of people who would like to be your president, including Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and some other people too, but let's be honest, this list already includes more people than actually stand a chance of winning.

More importantly, though, let's discuss what not to talk about! Basically, anything that is NOT the democratic primary. Simple, right? HAHAHAHAHAHA oh you sweet summer child, if only! So let's spell out some particulars.

Do NOT segue into detailed discussions of general topics that are not related to the primary. It is okay to talk about Warren's wealth tax. It is possibly okay, in limited fashion, to talk about the effects of wealth taxes on the economy. It is NOT okay to talk about the morality of being a billionaire, because that is not discussion of the democratic primary.

It is also NOT okay to talk about what a douchy shitweasel some other poster is, unless for some reason Tulsi Gabbard joins the thread, in which case, have at it.

It is also - and curse your eyes that I even have to spell this out - NOT okay to discuss guillotining people, or urging death upon anyone in anyway, because seriously, what in the actual fuck. This one is an automatic temp ban, folks, please don't be fucking sociopaths.

There are probably other rules, but nothing you can't figure out by just being a decent member of polite society.

Thank you and goodnight.

Maddie: "I named my feet. The left one is flip and the right one is flop. Oh, and also I named my flip-flops."

I make tweet.
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Posts

  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style Warning: Mothership Reporting Richland, WARegistered User regular
    edited November 5
    Stabbity Style was warned for this.
    Oh yeah, this dropped over the weekend and I don't think it got posted in here?



    The abusive boyfriend metaphor is actually kinda good, tbh.

    ElJeffe on
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  • milskimilski UNTZ UNTZ UNTZ UNTZ Registered User regular
    I'm just so, so, so tired of SNL.

    You can't write me off like that! You're just a voice, pal! You don't know a DAMN THING ABOUT RACING!!
    Dee KaeDouglasDangerTuminMayabirdLadaiShortyFANTOMASToxpainfulPleasanceMrVyngaardJulius
  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    WHAT NO JESUS FUCK MY EYES CHRIST WHAT DID I JUST SAY

    Maddie: "I named my feet. The left one is flip and the right one is flop. Oh, and also I named my flip-flops."

    I make tweet.
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  • doomybeardoomybear Hi People Registered User regular
    i enjoy the primary threads

    the next debate is supposed to be November 20th

    mark your calendars, i guess?

    what a happy day it is
    Youtube
  • TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    edited November 5
    I honestly read this as:
    doomybear wrote: »
    i enjoy the primary threads

    the next thread is supposed to be November 20th

    mark your calendars, i guess?

    From an international perspective, it's a little strange seeing the BBC seem to tiptoe around the recent polls as this just gets covered in Trump Impeachment stuff as "Biden being the supposed front runner", guess nothing actually counts til the first primary.

    Tastyfish on
  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Latest thing was Major Pete giving this example of settling for less even before a primary vote has been cast:


    Dude, talk like that is for when the stakes are less important. Healthcare is literally life or death, you can't just settle and expect people to take it with your little "aw shucks" speech.

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  • chokemchokem Registered User regular
    I just hope we remember we’re all on the same team. Right? All of us.

  • I needed a gnome to post.I needed a gnome to post. you cannot kill me in a way that matters Registered User regular
    no we aren't

    6WLALQ5.jpg
    chokemZonugalBloodsheedYamiB.MagellDouglasDangerMeeqeExtreaminatusMegaMekCantidoJaysonFourCantideKaputaCrimson KingbrynhrtmnSmrtnikvalhalla130ToxpainfulPleasanceKristmas Kthulhujdarksun
  • knitdanknitdan Oh no Too much hornyRegistered User regular
    This is a pretty big story imho

    https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/tom-steyer-aide-stole-kamala-harris-sc-volunteer-data-democratic/article_0daacd98-ff24-11e9-b9c7-87c46a5c6cc9.html

    A South Carolina aide for Tom Steyer’s 2020 presidential campaign stole valuable volunteer data collected by Kamala Harris’ campaign using an account from when he worked with the S.C. Democratic Party, according to multiple state and national party officials.

    The Steyer campaign said that it does not have possession of the data and that Democratic officials were only aware of the download, which they said was inadvertent, because they proactively notified them. Both the Democratic National Committee and S.C. Democratic Party denied that.

    “I was quick when I came in here, I’m twice as quick now”
    -Indiana Solo, runner of blades
    Youtube
  • RchanenRchanen Registered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    Latest thing was Major Pete giving this example of settling for less even before a primary vote has been cast:


    Dude, talk like that is for when the stakes are less important. Healthcare is literally life or death, you can't just settle and expect people to take it with your little "aw shucks" speech.

    He just doesn't know how to sell to the American People does he?

    He's just marketing bland let's all calm down pablum and hoping it will work. That's not how you get elected to the Presidency in America Pete!

    SELL. PEOPLE. ON. THE. BIG. DREAM!

    spool32 wrote:
    he pops this cobalt blue tetrahedron like he's thought of something. I'm like son, you know that's just a reskinned fireball, right?
    spool32FencingsaxMan in the MistsFawstLord_AsmodeusHeirCantidoJaysonFourTofystedethvalhalla130DrezToxjdarksun
  • chokemchokem Registered User regular
    Not everybody is into wildly unrealistic political goals. There’s a market for what he’s pitching. It’s just too bad he isn’t a better candidate.

    Heir
  • RchanenRchanen Registered User regular
    chokem wrote: »
    Not everybody is into wildly unrealistic political goals. There’s a market for what he’s pitching. It’s just too bad he isn’t a better candidate.

    I also don't think it's a big enough market to win the Presidency. I think you can get 3-4 voters for wildly unrealistic for every one of "we can have this done 3 quarters from now."

    The wildly unrealistics get you both the voters who think it will work and the ones like me who may have some concerns but are going "Fuck it, it's a step in the right direction. YEEHAH!"

    spool32 wrote:
    he pops this cobalt blue tetrahedron like he's thought of something. I'm like son, you know that's just a reskinned fireball, right?
    spool32Tofystedeth
  • RchanenRchanen Registered User regular
    knitdan wrote: »
    This is a pretty big story imho

    https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/tom-steyer-aide-stole-kamala-harris-sc-volunteer-data-democratic/article_0daacd98-ff24-11e9-b9c7-87c46a5c6cc9.html

    A South Carolina aide for Tom Steyer’s 2020 presidential campaign stole valuable volunteer data collected by Kamala Harris’ campaign using an account from when he worked with the S.C. Democratic Party, according to multiple state and national party officials.

    The Steyer campaign said that it does not have possession of the data and that Democratic officials were only aware of the download, which they said was inadvertent, because they proactively notified them. Both the Democratic National Committee and S.C. Democratic Party denied that.

    Well that's pretty dirty. And it could get ugly.

    But I think it was more a theft of opportunity on the part of the aide. Because why would Steyer want to shiv Harris's campaign? Wouldn't he want to steal information from someone with a chance?

    spool32 wrote:
    he pops this cobalt blue tetrahedron like he's thought of something. I'm like son, you know that's just a reskinned fireball, right?
    Spoit
  • chokemchokem Registered User regular
    Rchanen wrote: »
    chokem wrote: »
    Not everybody is into wildly unrealistic political goals. There’s a market for what he’s pitching. It’s just too bad he isn’t a better candidate.

    I also don't think it's a big enough market to win the Presidency. I think you can get 3-4 voters for wildly unrealistic for every one of "we can have this done 3 quarters from now."

    The wildly unrealistics get you both the voters who think it will work and the ones like me who may have some concerns but are going "Fuck it, it's a step in the right direction. YEEHAH!"

    If that were true then why aren’t moderate candidates like Biden and Pete less popular right now?

  • RchanenRchanen Registered User regular
    chokem wrote: »
    Rchanen wrote: »
    chokem wrote: »
    Not everybody is into wildly unrealistic political goals. There’s a market for what he’s pitching. It’s just too bad he isn’t a better candidate.

    I also don't think it's a big enough market to win the Presidency. I think you can get 3-4 voters for wildly unrealistic for every one of "we can have this done 3 quarters from now."

    The wildly unrealistics get you both the voters who think it will work and the ones like me who may have some concerns but are going "Fuck it, it's a step in the right direction. YEEHAH!"

    If that were true then why aren’t moderate candidates like Biden and Pete less popular right now?

    Biden's popular for "electability" and name recognition and probably on a path to flaming out. Which is kind of what happens every time he goes for the Democratic nod.

    Pete is probably swelling from those dropping Harris and Biden, but won't make it past super Tuesday. And probably not past Iowa and NH.

    spool32 wrote:
    he pops this cobalt blue tetrahedron like he's thought of something. I'm like son, you know that's just a reskinned fireball, right?
    YoutubeSpoitMan in the MistsQuidGennenalyse RuebenDarkPrimusPhoenix-DMegaMekA Kobold's KoboldCantideKristmas KthulhujdarksunElldren
  • knitdanknitdan Oh no Too much hornyRegistered User regular
    I had a thought today.

    Pete Buttigieg is the Sarah Palin of this election.

    Mayor of a fairly insignificant town, hits one or two key party demographics, heavily boosted by the media, ultimately lacking in substance.

    I just hope we’re not dumb enough to put him on the ticket. Palin was the factor that finally turned me from GOP to the DNC.

    “I was quick when I came in here, I’m twice as quick now”
    -Indiana Solo, runner of blades
    wanderingMonwyn
  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    As the field narrows, those that remain and have a shot at winning, like, let's say, the top 4 candidates, see their poll numbers increase, is basic math.

    I believe that Sanders is not winning the primary and going to a general where half of your own party hates your guts is foolhardy to say the least. But I recognize that he's staying.

    And given that we established that Major Pete is saying what is convenient at the moment, he's aiming to unseat Biden as The Moderate Candidate, since there's an opportunity there, given that Biden is having at least one embarrassing moment every two weeks or so.

    RchanenSpoit
  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Cohn of NYT has some comparative polling info for some battleground states

    wanderingCrimson King
  • RchanenRchanen Registered User regular
    Cohn of NYT has some comparative polling info for some battleground states


    I wonder why Warren pulls AZ but can't pull Michigan?

    spool32 wrote:
    he pops this cobalt blue tetrahedron like he's thought of something. I'm like son, you know that's just a reskinned fireball, right?
    Apogee
  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Rchanen wrote: »
    Cohn of NYT has some comparative polling info for some battleground states


    I wonder why Warren pulls AZ but can't pull Michigan?

    My guess is she polls better with retired professionals in Arizona and struggles with working class people who arent significantly Democratly inclined in Michigan.

    YamiB.MagellDouglasDangerShortyApogeeMegaMekCrimson KingToxpainfulPleasancejdarksun
  • MazzyxMazzyx Comedy Gold Registered User regular
    edited November 5
    Rchanen wrote: »
    Cohn of NYT has some comparative polling info for some battleground states


    I wonder why Warren pulls AZ but can't pull Michigan?

    My guess is she polls better with retired professionals in Arizona and struggles with working class people who arent significantly Democratly inclined in Michigan.

    The crosstabs are available. Really it is a mix of min and a constant string of "Women candidates are not likeable." A lot of the working class folks that you are describing are not pro-anyone but Trump and really outside the Warren one all in the margin of error but Arizona for Biden.

    Also for Warren is African Americans.

    Though at this point I am not sure how much I put into this poll. The specific question asked was:

    "If the election was held today who would you vote for?" And there is a lot of time in a year and primary that hasn't even ended. Methodologically the polling is fine. But the period out is not going to give it much weight.

    What it really should be saying everyone, "THERE IS A LOT OF WORK TO DO AND PEOPLE NEED TO GO OUT AND DO IT STARTING NOW!"

    Edit to go with what I was talking about demographic breakdowns across the polls.

    udaysmje7chh.png

    Mazzyx on
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  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Looks like we could solve all of the USA's political problems by providing free college to white people.

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  • ScooterScooter Registered User regular
    The part where the Dems pretty much all lose points compared to Hillary with almost all minorities is just...what? Trump's won over minority voters who voted for Clinton? Seriously?

    SpoitMan in the MistsQanamil
  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Scooter wrote: »
    The part where the Dems pretty much all lose points compared to Hillary with almost all minorities is just...what? Trump's won over minority voters who voted for Clinton? Seriously?

    Maybe. Minorities can be racist against immigrants, too.

    Or it could be that they don’t like any of the candidates, don’t feel they care about people like them and don’t plan to vote. Thanks, guys. Sure, Biden may be a bit racist but compared to Trump he’s Martin Luther King jr.

    valhalla130
  • ScooterScooter Registered User regular
    If they're including don't-knows/plan-not-to-votes in a comparison with actual 2016 voters, that's a bit misleading.

    Phoenix-DElldren
  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    edited November 5
    Example #496920396 under "Vote for us strategically is a terrible plan".

    Styrofoam Sammich on
    painfulPleasanceJulius
  • I needed a gnome to post.I needed a gnome to post. you cannot kill me in a way that matters Registered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    [What it really should be saying everyone, "THERE IS A LOT OF WORK TO DO AND PEOPLE NEED TO GO OUT AND DO IT STARTING NOW!"

    This is the big thing that annoyed me about the Pelosi quote about M4A the other day. Rather than bellyaching about how you think something won't play in a region, why not push to do the work to make it play?

    6WLALQ5.jpg
    Man in the MistsFawstYamiB.MagellA Kobold's Koboldvalhalla130MidnitepainfulPleasanceJuliusKristmas KthulhujdarksunElldren
  • chokemchokem Registered User regular
    Mazzyx wrote: »
    [What it really should be saying everyone, "THERE IS A LOT OF WORK TO DO AND PEOPLE NEED TO GO OUT AND DO IT STARTING NOW!"

    This is the big thing that annoyed me about the Pelosi quote about M4A the other day. Rather than bellyaching about how you think something won't play in a region, why not push to do the work to make it play?

    Doing the work here means getting out the vote.

    It is difficult if not impossible to change someone’s fundamental beliefs.

    No-Quarter
  • knitdanknitdan Oh no Too much hornyRegistered User regular
    Scooter wrote: »
    The part where the Dems pretty much all lose points compared to Hillary with almost all minorities is just...what? Trump's won over minority voters who voted for Clinton? Seriously?

    Or they’re largely supporting candidates who aren’t on the list...

    “I was quick when I came in here, I’m twice as quick now”
    -Indiana Solo, runner of blades
  • themightypuckthemightypuck MontanaRegistered User regular
    Early, early, early days. We don't actually have a candidate so most of these polls don't capture the non captured. Pulling the actual lever (well they don't have levers anymore but you get what I'm saying) focuses the mind. For good or for ill. My view is that Biden is up because everyone else is a bit off. Elections are a lot about good things but they are also quite a bit about bad things like "does the candidate look the part". This works for Biden. He's been there looking the part for a while. The flipside is that Biden is a gaffe machine and is almost guaranteed to self destruct in the GE.

    “Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.”
    ― Marcus Aurelius

    Path of Exile: themightypuck
    CelestialBadger
  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    knitdan wrote: »
    Scooter wrote: »
    The part where the Dems pretty much all lose points compared to Hillary with almost all minorities is just...what? Trump's won over minority voters who voted for Clinton? Seriously?

    Or they’re largely supporting candidates who aren’t on the list...

    Its not a primary matchup poll. Minority Harris supporters wouldnt explain it.

    RchanenJulius
  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    The Michigan poll in particular is complete bullshit and they even say that. Response rate in this state is, for whatever reason, absolute garbage and polling is terrible here. If you read their summary, there's a caveat that due to low response rate they couldn't hit their target number and so there's a massive margin of error. Nobody knows what's going on here, but I doubt the state that just elected Democratic women to every statewide office is going to swing back to Trump. It's also counter to every other poll of the state

    But yeah, most of the Sanders and Warren deficit in the midwest is based on Dems not winning the black vote by 80-90 which is... wildly unrealistic. GOP hasn't gotten more than 11% of the black vote since 1980

    There are worries about enthusiasm in those numbers and we need to think about that. Warren's done a good job of reaching out to black activists, but isn't connecting with regular black voters as well yet. Hispanic polling for her has been all over the map.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
    RedTideFencingsaxshrykeMagellQanamilDouglasDangerMegaMekKamarJaysonFourToxElldren
  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    That poll looks different than pretty much every head to head match up I've seen, which makes me inclined to consider it an outlier until I see something to corroborate it.

    And also the fact that general election polls this far out are garbage.

    Maddie: "I named my feet. The left one is flip and the right one is flop. Oh, and also I named my flip-flops."

    I make tweet.
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  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    Polls are a snapshot in time, remember

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  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    chokem wrote: »
    I just hope we remember we’re all on the same team. Right? All of us.

    This is an excellent example of how to passive-aggressively start shit, so don't do it.

    shrykeRchanenViktor WaltersDouglasDangerKoopahTroopahA Kobold's KoboldCantidoJaysonFourCantideTofystedethZonugalSanguinius666264Man in the MistsToxpainfulPleasanceKristmas KthulhuMild Confusion
  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    As the field narrows, those that remain and have a shot at winning, like, let's say, the top 4 candidates, see their poll numbers increase, is basic math.

    I believe that Sanders is not winning the primary and going to a general where half of your own party hates your guts is foolhardy to say the least. But I recognize that he's staying.

    And given that we established that Major Pete is saying what is convenient at the moment, he's aiming to unseat Biden as The Moderate Candidate, since there's an opportunity there, given that Biden is having at least one embarrassing moment every two weeks or so.

    Sanders seems to have a pretty hard floor and ceiling on his support, so unless Warren drops I don't think he has a chance of winning the primary. I do think him sticking around provides some value though, since he's been backing Warren in the debates and I suspect, though I'm not certain, that it might be easier to get any of his delegates to back Warren when/if he drops out, as opposed to regular supporters which might be like herding cats.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
  • ElendilElendil Registered User regular
    Sanders is casting a wider net for support than likely or regular voters. He's got what, 75-80% of the youth vote? Couldn't tell you whether it'll work or not, but there's no reason for him to go anywhere until votes are cast because if he gets anywhere it'll be by outperforming polls.

    Styrofoam SammichCrimson KingMan in the MistsJulius
  • TarantioTarantio Registered User regular
    Sanders absolutely does not have 75% or more of the youth vote. Maybe in some particular states?

    shrykeKayne Red RobeYoutubeMazzyxSpoitkimeFencingsaxZonugalKristmas KthulhuElldren
  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    edited November 5
    Billionaire sheds crocodile tears about why are people so mean to the poor 1%:
    “I don’t need Elizabeth Warren telling me that I’m a deadbeat and that billionaires are deadbeats. The vilification of billionaires makes no sense to me. The world is a substantially better place because of Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, David Rubenstein, Bernie Marcus, Ken Langone,” Cooperman said.

    “This is idiocy! It’s appealing to the lowest common denominator and basically trying to turn people’s heads around by promising a lot of free stuff,” he added.

    Warren responds with a very polite "fuck you":



    Thread has a lot of witness accounts about becoming debt serfs thanks to Navient.

    TryCatcher on
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  • TheBigEasyTheBigEasy Registered User regular
    edited November 5
    All this talk about billionaires always reminds me of this scene from the West Wing:



    "Because, if I hold on to all this money, I start to look impolite."

    EDIT: And just for the record and to not just drop a youtube link here - I compeletely agree with Warrens stance. Billionaires should do something with their money other than hoarding it.

    TheBigEasy on
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This discussion has been closed.