[US Foreign Policy] 100 Seconds to Midnight

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  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    This isn't a "win" for anyone because it increases the likelihood Iran elects a far right, anti-American President like Ahmandinejad again. We dodged a bullet with Rouhani's narrow victory and it's being wasted

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  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    madparrot wrote: »

    Trump claimed that he's gotten $1 billion in the bank from the Saudis to pay for US troops. But the Pentagon just confirmed to me the Saudis still have not paid their outstanding bill for refueling costs in the Yemen war. So let's label Trump's statement as highly doubtful.
    WaPo fact checker

    So either he was straight up lyin', or that $1bn went somewhere other than into the US Treasury...

    It's almost adorable that the Pentagon thinks that he means the Treasury instead of his own personal accounts.

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    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
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  • FrankiedarlingFrankiedarling Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    This isn't a "win" for anyone because it increases the likelihood Iran elects a far right, anti-American President like Ahmandinejad again. We dodged a bullet with Rouhani's narrow victory and it's being wasted

    Rouhani has very little power. The true power in the country is not elected and does not answer to anyone but themselves.

    Iranians ain’t gonna elect themselves out of this theocratic mess.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Butters wrote: »
    This isn't a "win" for anyone because it increases the likelihood Iran elects a far right, anti-American President like Ahmandinejad again. We dodged a bullet with Rouhani's narrow victory and it's being wasted

    Rouhani has very little power. The true power in the country is not elected and does not answer to anyone but themselves.

    Iranians ain’t gonna elect themselves out of this theocratic mess.

    You could have said the same thing about Czechoslovakia in 1980 and been wrong by the end of the decade.

    Not that there is a guarantee of success by the protestors. They'll probably fail. But they aren't always doomed to failure.

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  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    There are a lot of modern democratic legislative bodies that have grown out of ‘rump’ parliaments. I don’t think it’s that smart to just dismiss the Iranian president and legislature just because they are currently more symbolic.

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  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    CNN's Ryan Struyk quoting our AG who decided to add his bullshit two cents to the pile.

    Ryan Struyk of CNN: BARR: "This concept of imminence is something of a red herring. [When] there is a campaign that involves repeated attacks on American targets, I don't think there's a requirement, frankly, for, you know, knowing the exact time and place of the next attack."

    The ease with which this administration has been able to just declare war on the meaning of words and just act like nothing they say matters or could possibly be used to hold them to account is probably one of the most infuriating things about it.

    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Assassinating foreign leaders is now official government policy.

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  • Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    First strike is now official government policy.

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  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    This may come as a bit of a shock, but Iran has domestic politics.

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  • Mild ConfusionMild Confusion Smash All Things Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    First strike is now official government policy.

    I thought Cobra Kai was supposed to be the villain?

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  • GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    The other end of it is tht even if Rouhani is purely symbolic, this is still the face that Iran is presenting to the wider world. One which is moderate and trying to strike a less combative tone.

    By treating him like dirt America is saying that their is no point in negotiating with the west since he'll be treated like dirt all the same.

    Richy wrote: »
    But I think the resistance I’m getting more has to do with “rawr! Loklar said it! Rage!” than anything else.

    No, it has to do with the fact that you're done nothing but throw lies, blatant flasehoods, and downright dumb statements at us so far.
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  • NSDFRandNSDFRand FloridaRegistered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Butters wrote: »
    This isn't a "win" for anyone because it increases the likelihood Iran elects a far right, anti-American President like Ahmandinejad again. We dodged a bullet with Rouhani's narrow victory and it's being wasted

    Rouhani has very little power. The true power in the country is not elected and does not answer to anyone but themselves.

    Iranians ain’t gonna elect themselves out of this theocratic mess.

    You could have said the same thing about Czechoslovakia in 1980 and been wrong by the end of the decade.

    Not that there is a guarantee of success by the protestors. They'll probably fail. But they aren't always doomed to failure.

    Iran is not part of a failing larger government body. As far as electoral politics, Frankie is correct. The religious deep state not only constitutionally has ultimate power but it also controls the council which determines the suitability of political candidates for all offices as well as the council which determines the successor for the Supreme Leader. Khomeini did a very good job of cementing the power of the Supreme Leader following the revolution.

  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Tim Kaine says he has 51 votes for the Iran War Powers resolution to restrict the use of force. Young, Collins, Lee, and Paul are the four Republicans.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
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  • ButtersButters A glass of some milks Registered User regular
    Though ultimately subservient to the Supreme Leader, the Iranian president still has considerable influence over domestic matters and is the primary point of contact for foreign entities. The president appoints ambassadors and cabinet ministers and it helps to have people in those positions that are receptive to diplomacy over bombastic rhetoric like Ahmandinejad.

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  • XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    Tim Kaine says he has 51 votes for the Iran War Powers resolution to restrict the use of force. Young, Collins, Lee, and Paul are the four Republicans.

    those 4 are only 'voting' for it because they know mcconnell won't let it hit the floor.

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  • GONG-00GONG-00 Registered User regular
    Tim Kaine says he has 51 votes for the Iran War Powers resolution to restrict the use of force. Young, Collins, Lee, and Paul are the four Republicans.

    I'll believe it after they vote.

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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    Xaquin wrote: »
    Tim Kaine says he has 51 votes for the Iran War Powers resolution to restrict the use of force. Young, Collins, Lee, and Paul are the four Republicans.

    those 4 are only 'voting' for it because they know mcconnell won't let it hit the floor.

    Couldn't Trump also veto it?

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • DouglasDangerDouglasDanger PennsylvaniaRegistered User regular
    McConnell won't let it be heard or presented or whatever, so this is meaningless

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  • CouscousCouscous Registered User regular
    edited January 14
    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/articles/2020-01-14/soleimani-strike-shows-trump-plan-for-iran-is-regime-disruption
    For a handful of Trump’s advisers, however, there is a third strategic benefit to killing Soleimani: Call it regime disruption. Trump and top U.S. officials have said repeatedly that the U.S. does not seek regime change in Iran, but they have also in recent days cheered on Iranian protesters who have flooded the streets blaming their country’s supreme leader for the downing of a Ukrainian passenger jet.
    The case for disruption is outlined in a series of unclassified memos sent to former National Security Adviser John Bolton in May and June 2019 — the period when Iran’s latest round of escalations began in the Persian Gulf.

    Their author, David Wurmser, is a longtime adviser to Bolton who then served as a consultant to the National Security Council. Wurmser argues that Iran is in the midst of a legitimacy crisis. Its leadership, he writes, is divided between camps that seek an apocalyptic return of the hidden imam, and those that favor the preservation of the Islamic Republic founded in 1979. All the while, many Iranians have grown disgusted with the regime’s incompetence and corruption.

    Wurmser’s crucial insight, and one that goes some way toward explaining the Soleimani strike, is that Iran’s leaders expect America to respond to its provocations in a measured and predictable fashion. “Iran has always been careful to execute its ambitions and aggressive aims incrementally to avoid Western reactions which depart from the expected,” Wurmser argues. “In contrast, were unexpected, rule-changing actions taken against Iran, it would confuse the regime. It would need to scramble,” he writes. Such a U.S. attack would “rattle the delicate internal balance of forces and the control over them upon which the regime depends for stability and survival.”
    Wurmser’s memos show that the Trump administration has been debating the blow against Soleimani since the current crisis began, some seven months ago. In addition to Bolton, the memos were also shared with senior State Department officials. (I obtained them through a source who supports the Soleimani strike.)
    That sounds like a great way to cause a war.

    Couscous on
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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    naaah, there's no way that sort of thing could ever come back in our faces...

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  • LabelLabel Registered User regular
    I think it feels like a number of experienced bureaucrats coming up with some actually effective ass-covering, instead of letting Trump's rambling bullshit be their story.

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  • daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Label wrote: »
    I think it feels like a number of experienced bureaucrats coming up with some actually effective ass-covering, instead of letting Trump's rambling bullshit be their story.

    And this is why what happened is actually brilliant instead of depressingly stupid and ineffective.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Preacher wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    Tim Kaine says he has 51 votes for the Iran War Powers resolution to restrict the use of force. Young, Collins, Lee, and Paul are the four Republicans.

    those 4 are only 'voting' for it because they know mcconnell won't let it hit the floor.

    Couldn't Trump also veto it?

    Yeah, this kind of thing needs 2/3rds to be meaningful.

  • rahkeesh2000rahkeesh2000 Registered User regular
    If you try to take credit for Iran's internal dissent over shooting down a passenger plane, you also have the blood of hundreds of innocents on your hands.

    Which, I guess, isn't a problem for this admin.

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  • ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    McConnell won't let it be heard or presented or whatever, so this is meaningless

    As a war powers resolution he can’t keep it from being voted on.

    Artereis wrote: »
    It's not your fault, Viskod. 1 out of every 10 people just happens to be a monster.
  • FrankiedarlingFrankiedarling Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Butters wrote: »
    This isn't a "win" for anyone because it increases the likelihood Iran elects a far right, anti-American President like Ahmandinejad again. We dodged a bullet with Rouhani's narrow victory and it's being wasted

    Rouhani has very little power. The true power in the country is not elected and does not answer to anyone but themselves.

    Iranians ain’t gonna elect themselves out of this theocratic mess.

    You could have said the same thing about Czechoslovakia in 1980 and been wrong by the end of the decade.

    Not that there is a guarantee of success by the protestors. They'll probably fail. But they aren't always doomed to failure.

    Iran’s government is super locked in. There are no failsafe mechanisms. There are no opposition parties. There is no protest (unless you want to get shot or disappeared). There is no out.

    I don’t know how you look at the Iranian situation and see it as anything except Hopeless in terms of natural political change. I think people get too caught up in the “US Bad” thought trap to realize that while yes, US can be bad, Iran is worse. They suppress and brutalize their own people to a degree we don’t remotely approach.

  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Butters wrote: »
    This isn't a "win" for anyone because it increases the likelihood Iran elects a far right, anti-American President like Ahmandinejad again. We dodged a bullet with Rouhani's narrow victory and it's being wasted

    Rouhani has very little power. The true power in the country is not elected and does not answer to anyone but themselves.

    Iranians ain’t gonna elect themselves out of this theocratic mess.

    You could have said the same thing about Czechoslovakia in 1980 and been wrong by the end of the decade.

    Not that there is a guarantee of success by the protestors. They'll probably fail. But they aren't always doomed to failure.

    Iran’s government is super locked in. There are no failsafe mechanisms. There are no opposition parties. There is no protest (unless you want to get shot or disappeared). There is no out.

    I don’t know how you look at the Iranian situation and see it as anything except Hopeless in terms of natural political change. I think people get too caught up in the “US Bad” thought trap to realize that while yes, US can be bad, Iran is worse. They suppress and brutalize their own people to a degree we don’t remotely approach.

    The former Czechoslovakia was not a part of the United States, so I'm not seeing how this is anything other than a non sequitur.

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  • FrankiedarlingFrankiedarling Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Butters wrote: »
    This isn't a "win" for anyone because it increases the likelihood Iran elects a far right, anti-American President like Ahmandinejad again. We dodged a bullet with Rouhani's narrow victory and it's being wasted

    Rouhani has very little power. The true power in the country is not elected and does not answer to anyone but themselves.

    Iranians ain’t gonna elect themselves out of this theocratic mess.

    You could have said the same thing about Czechoslovakia in 1980 and been wrong by the end of the decade.

    Not that there is a guarantee of success by the protestors. They'll probably fail. But they aren't always doomed to failure.

    Iran’s government is super locked in. There are no failsafe mechanisms. There are no opposition parties. There is no protest (unless you want to get shot or disappeared). There is no out.

    I don’t know how you look at the Iranian situation and see it as anything except Hopeless in terms of natural political change. I think people get too caught up in the “US Bad” thought trap to realize that while yes, US can be bad, Iran is worse. They suppress and brutalize their own people to a degree we don’t remotely approach.

    The former Czechoslovakia was not a part of the United States, so I'm not seeing how this is anything other than a non sequitur.

    I don’t see Iran’s situation as comparable to Czechoslovakia. I think a lot of anti-US adventurism sentiment colors how ppl see Iran.

  • Jealous DevaJealous Deva Registered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Butters wrote: »
    This isn't a "win" for anyone because it increases the likelihood Iran elects a far right, anti-American President like Ahmandinejad again. We dodged a bullet with Rouhani's narrow victory and it's being wasted

    Rouhani has very little power. The true power in the country is not elected and does not answer to anyone but themselves.

    Iranians ain’t gonna elect themselves out of this theocratic mess.

    You could have said the same thing about Czechoslovakia in 1980 and been wrong by the end of the decade.

    Not that there is a guarantee of success by the protestors. They'll probably fail. But they aren't always doomed to failure.

    Iran’s government is super locked in. There are no failsafe mechanisms. There are no opposition parties. There is no protest (unless you want to get shot or disappeared). There is no out.

    I don’t know how you look at the Iranian situation and see it as anything except Hopeless in terms of natural political change. I think people get too caught up in the “US Bad” thought trap to realize that while yes, US can be bad, Iran is worse. They suppress and brutalize their own people to a degree we don’t remotely approach.

    You could say all the same things about the Soviet Union of 1980 though. It was all true right up until it wasn’t.

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  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited January 15
    Iran is more democratic than every other country in the region(besides Israel, which currently has its own problem with the increase of power from theocrats). The system they have has slowly been moving in the direction of more democracy, but they have had regressions, especially when the US decides they simply have to fuck around in the region instead of letting it be.

    They arbitrairly imprison Westerners, especially citizens of America and our allies, especially journalists. They do not have particularly free press, and their election system is under tight control. But they are developing, and if we actually treated them like adults for more than an 8 year stretch, they would probably be able to get somewhere.

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  • GiantGeek2020GiantGeek2020 Registered User regular
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Iran is more democratic than every other country in the region(besides Israel, which currently has its own problem with the increase of power from theocrats). The system they have has slowly been moving in the direction of more democracy, but they have had regressions, especially when the US decides they simply have to fuck around in the region instead of letting it be.

    They arbitrairly imprison Westerners, especially citizens of America and our allies, especially journalists. They do not have particularly free press, and their election system is under tight control. But they are developing, and if we actually treated them like adults for more than an 8 year stretch, they would probably be able to get somewhere.

    Or they wouldn't. See China.

    Not to argue for more of us fucking around in the area. It's just not that simple.

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  • ProhassProhass Registered User regular
    edited January 15
    There’s honestly no right answer, which is why it’s important that we know what our administration intends and their actual reasons for action. Was this a defensive measure to an imminent threat as they said? Or was it revenge? Or part of a process of regime change?

    Whatever people believe the policy towards Iran should be, the administration is betraying the people who put it in power by lying about, or at the very least obscuring, it’s reasoning for the strike.

    Prohass on
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  • jothkijothki Registered User regular
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Iran is more democratic than every other country in the region(besides Israel, which currently has its own problem with the increase of power from theocrats). The system they have has slowly been moving in the direction of more democracy, but they have had regressions, especially when the US decides they simply have to fuck around in the region instead of letting it be.

    They arbitrairly imprison Westerners, especially citizens of America and our allies, especially journalists. They do not have particularly free press, and their election system is under tight control. But they are developing, and if we actually treated them like adults for more than an 8 year stretch, they would probably be able to get somewhere.

    Or they wouldn't. See China.

    Not to argue for more of us fucking around in the area. It's just not that simple.

    They don't have anywhere near China's economy, though, so the relationships would be different. No one outside the region is going to self-censor so that their stuff will sell better in Iran.

    Fencingsax
  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    Also, China doesn't even try at democracy

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Also, China doesn't even try at democracy

    For a while there it was an article of faith, in some circles, that if we were successful in exporting capitalism, liberal democratic ideals and greater openness would naturally accompany it.
    Turns out repressive authoritarian regimes can do capitalism just as well as "communism".

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  • DacDac Registered User regular
    McConnell won't let it be heard or presented or whatever, so this is meaningless

    It's kind of bonkers to me that over ten-plus years we've somehow just become normalized to the idea that the senate majority leader now has the same effective veto power as the president.

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  • Dark_SideDark_Side Registered User regular
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Iran is more democratic than every other country in the region(besides Israel, which currently has its own problem with the increase of power from theocrats). The system they have has slowly been moving in the direction of more democracy, but they have had regressions, especially when the US decides they simply have to fuck around in the region instead of letting it be.

    They arbitrairly imprison Westerners, especially citizens of America and our allies, especially journalists. They do not have particularly free press, and their election system is under tight control. But they are developing, and if we actually treated them like adults for more than an 8 year stretch, they would probably be able to get somewhere.

    Or they wouldn't. See China.

    Not to argue for more of us fucking around in the area. It's just not that simple.

    It's definitely not simple, but the last couple of years have shown that Iran has an entire younger generation that is fed up with the state of things there and doesn't necessarily see the US as the great evil. China seems different in that they've spent generations programming their young people with sophistication, and efficient brutality seen nowhere else.

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Iran is more democratic than every other country in the region(besides Israel, which currently has its own problem with the increase of power from theocrats). The system they have has slowly been moving in the direction of more democracy, but they have had regressions, especially when the US decides they simply have to fuck around in the region instead of letting it be.

    They arbitrairly imprison Westerners, especially citizens of America and our allies, especially journalists. They do not have particularly free press, and their election system is under tight control. But they are developing, and if we actually treated them like adults for more than an 8 year stretch, they would probably be able to get somewhere.

    Or they wouldn't. See China.

    Not to argue for more of us fucking around in the area. It's just not that simple.

    It's definitely not simple, but the last couple of years have shown that Iran has an entire younger generation that is fed up with the state of things there and doesn't necessarily see the US as the great evil. China seems different in that they've spent generations programming their young people with sophistication, and efficient brutality seen nowhere else.

    Yeah, I do honestly feel that we are closer to the Prague Spring than the Velvet Revolution, but I don't think the latter is an impossibility in Iran.

  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Iran is more democratic than every other country in the region(besides Israel, which currently has its own problem with the increase of power from theocrats). The system they have has slowly been moving in the direction of more democracy, but they have had regressions, especially when the US decides they simply have to fuck around in the region instead of letting it be.

    They arbitrairly imprison Westerners, especially citizens of America and our allies, especially journalists. They do not have particularly free press, and their election system is under tight control. But they are developing, and if we actually treated them like adults for more than an 8 year stretch, they would probably be able to get somewhere.

    Or they wouldn't. See China.

    Not to argue for more of us fucking around in the area. It's just not that simple.

    It's definitely not simple, but the last couple of years have shown that Iran has an entire younger generation that is fed up with the state of things there and doesn't necessarily see the US as the great evil. China seems different in that they've spent generations programming their young people with sophistication, and efficient brutality seen nowhere else.

    China has also, I think, been effective at stopping it's various annoyed groups from connecting and organizing really really effectively. They don't seem to swear large protests because they just fade and don't build into something larger across the entire country.

    Dark_SideElvenshaeMartini_Philosopher
  • Dark_SideDark_Side Registered User regular
    edited January 15
    shryke wrote: »
    Dark_Side wrote: »
    Fencingsax wrote: »
    Iran is more democratic than every other country in the region(besides Israel, which currently has its own problem with the increase of power from theocrats). The system they have has slowly been moving in the direction of more democracy, but they have had regressions, especially when the US decides they simply have to fuck around in the region instead of letting it be.

    They arbitrairly imprison Westerners, especially citizens of America and our allies, especially journalists. They do not have particularly free press, and their election system is under tight control. But they are developing, and if we actually treated them like adults for more than an 8 year stretch, they would probably be able to get somewhere.

    Or they wouldn't. See China.

    Not to argue for more of us fucking around in the area. It's just not that simple.

    It's definitely not simple, but the last couple of years have shown that Iran has an entire younger generation that is fed up with the state of things there and doesn't necessarily see the US as the great evil. China seems different in that they've spent generations programming their young people with sophistication, and efficient brutality seen nowhere else.

    China has also, I think, been effective at stopping it's various annoyed groups from connecting and organizing really really effectively. They don't seem to swear large protests because they just fade and don't build into something larger across the entire country.

    Yeah, China scares the shit out of me as currently the most likely future dystopian model that we will all eventually live under. Of course if you look at what they've leveraged to achieve their booming economic growth, and the political power that growth sustains...eventually that bill is going to come due, and it's anyone's guess what happens when it does.

    Dark_Side on
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