West Germany was once the centerpiece of NATO’s anti-Soviet defense and host to hundreds of thousands of U.S. and Allied forces. Today that role is increasingly assumed by Poland, one of the most stalwart members of the alliance. It is one of only six countries to meet NATO’s goal of spending 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, has welcomed U.S. forces returning to Europe, and has undertaken a serious and sustained program of military modernization.
As part of the overall global buildup of U.S. military capabilities, the U.S. Army has begun rotational deployments of an armored brigade combat team, or ABCT, to Poland. Last year, the Pentagon decided to expand this effort with a forward-deployed division headquarters, pre-positioned equipment for a second ABCT, logistics units and an MQ-9 Reaper drone squadron located in that country.
Over time, the plan is to create the infrastructure to support the rotational deployment of two ABCTs, plus additional combat enablers, including both aviation forces and long-range fires.
Just last week, the U.S. Army decided to reactivate its V Corps and return part of it to an as-yet undetermined location in Europe. It would make tremendous sense to locate that corps headquarters in Poland alongside the majority of U.S. Army forces operating in Europe. It would also be an important symbolic step, as V Corps was one of two heavy formations positioned in Germany for most of the Cold War. Most importantly, deploying a corps helps ensure that the U.S. Army can conduct an effective defense against large-sale conventional aggression.
Poland is more than just a good host for U.S. forces. It has committed to spending billions of dollars to create the infrastructure to support the additional U.S. deployments.
No NATO ally has done more to improve its defensive posture and to support the return of U.S. forces to Europe than Poland. In addition to meeting its 2 percent obligation, Poland has taken seriously the need to upgrade and replace aging Cold War-era Soviet equipment with modern Western systems.
Last year, Warsaw issued a new Technical Modernization Plan for 2026 that commits to spending nearly $50 billion on fifth-generation fighter jets, UAVs, assault helicopters, short-range rockets, submarines and cybersecurity.
Poland is an important purchaser of U.S. military equipment. Warsaw plans on acquiring up to eight Patriot air defense batteries. Since the end of the Cold War, the Polish Air Force has been transitioning from Soviet-era platforms to largely U.S.-made aircraft, beginning with the acquisition of 48 F-16s.
In January, Poland signed a multibillion-dollar deal to purchase 32 F-35A fighter jets, thereby vaulting itself into the ranks of NATO’s premier air forces.
Which brings a particularly important point. As much as people hate Trump's "pay us the money to be there" rhetoric since is insulting and humilliating and it erodes the US's soft power and is Trump using the US power to bully people and it treats the US Armed Forces as a mercenary army and and and.....fact it, there's several countries that are paying the money. Because they have no other choice if they want to keep being countries.
South Korea, Japan and now Poland are all now paying the money. Guess what all 3 have in common.
They agreed to increase their military spend to Obama?
Keep telling yourself that matters.
Is it because we demonstrated our untrustworthiness as an ally, and so they cannot rely upon our not abandoning them?
West Germany was once the centerpiece of NATO’s anti-Soviet defense and host to hundreds of thousands of U.S. and Allied forces. Today that role is increasingly assumed by Poland, one of the most stalwart members of the alliance. It is one of only six countries to meet NATO’s goal of spending 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, has welcomed U.S. forces returning to Europe, and has undertaken a serious and sustained program of military modernization.
As part of the overall global buildup of U.S. military capabilities, the U.S. Army has begun rotational deployments of an armored brigade combat team, or ABCT, to Poland. Last year, the Pentagon decided to expand this effort with a forward-deployed division headquarters, pre-positioned equipment for a second ABCT, logistics units and an MQ-9 Reaper drone squadron located in that country.
Over time, the plan is to create the infrastructure to support the rotational deployment of two ABCTs, plus additional combat enablers, including both aviation forces and long-range fires.
Just last week, the U.S. Army decided to reactivate its V Corps and return part of it to an as-yet undetermined location in Europe. It would make tremendous sense to locate that corps headquarters in Poland alongside the majority of U.S. Army forces operating in Europe. It would also be an important symbolic step, as V Corps was one of two heavy formations positioned in Germany for most of the Cold War. Most importantly, deploying a corps helps ensure that the U.S. Army can conduct an effective defense against large-sale conventional aggression.
Poland is more than just a good host for U.S. forces. It has committed to spending billions of dollars to create the infrastructure to support the additional U.S. deployments.
No NATO ally has done more to improve its defensive posture and to support the return of U.S. forces to Europe than Poland. In addition to meeting its 2 percent obligation, Poland has taken seriously the need to upgrade and replace aging Cold War-era Soviet equipment with modern Western systems.
Last year, Warsaw issued a new Technical Modernization Plan for 2026 that commits to spending nearly $50 billion on fifth-generation fighter jets, UAVs, assault helicopters, short-range rockets, submarines and cybersecurity.
Poland is an important purchaser of U.S. military equipment. Warsaw plans on acquiring up to eight Patriot air defense batteries. Since the end of the Cold War, the Polish Air Force has been transitioning from Soviet-era platforms to largely U.S.-made aircraft, beginning with the acquisition of 48 F-16s.
In January, Poland signed a multibillion-dollar deal to purchase 32 F-35A fighter jets, thereby vaulting itself into the ranks of NATO’s premier air forces.
Which brings a particularly important point. As much as people hate Trump's "pay us the money to be there" rhetoric since is insulting and humilliating and it erodes the US's soft power and is Trump using the US power to bully people and it treats the US Armed Forces as a mercenary army and and and.....fact it, there's several countries that are paying the money. Because they have no other choice if they want to keep being countries.
South Korea, Japan and now Poland are all now paying the money. Guess what all 3 have in common.
They agreed to increase their military spend to Obama?
Keep telling yourself that matters.
Is it because we demonstrated our untrustworthiness as an ally, and so they cannot rely upon our not abandoning them?
On the new order, there's no allies, there's people that pay for being on the US umbrella and everybody outside it. And a lot of countries are paying for the privilege because the alternative is still much, much worse. Unless you are, let's say, Duterte, and don't give a fuck about the human rights of your citizens, then you can take the Chinese/Russian money.
West Germany was once the centerpiece of NATO’s anti-Soviet defense and host to hundreds of thousands of U.S. and Allied forces. Today that role is increasingly assumed by Poland, one of the most stalwart members of the alliance. It is one of only six countries to meet NATO’s goal of spending 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, has welcomed U.S. forces returning to Europe, and has undertaken a serious and sustained program of military modernization.
As part of the overall global buildup of U.S. military capabilities, the U.S. Army has begun rotational deployments of an armored brigade combat team, or ABCT, to Poland. Last year, the Pentagon decided to expand this effort with a forward-deployed division headquarters, pre-positioned equipment for a second ABCT, logistics units and an MQ-9 Reaper drone squadron located in that country.
Over time, the plan is to create the infrastructure to support the rotational deployment of two ABCTs, plus additional combat enablers, including both aviation forces and long-range fires.
Just last week, the U.S. Army decided to reactivate its V Corps and return part of it to an as-yet undetermined location in Europe. It would make tremendous sense to locate that corps headquarters in Poland alongside the majority of U.S. Army forces operating in Europe. It would also be an important symbolic step, as V Corps was one of two heavy formations positioned in Germany for most of the Cold War. Most importantly, deploying a corps helps ensure that the U.S. Army can conduct an effective defense against large-sale conventional aggression.
Poland is more than just a good host for U.S. forces. It has committed to spending billions of dollars to create the infrastructure to support the additional U.S. deployments.
No NATO ally has done more to improve its defensive posture and to support the return of U.S. forces to Europe than Poland. In addition to meeting its 2 percent obligation, Poland has taken seriously the need to upgrade and replace aging Cold War-era Soviet equipment with modern Western systems.
Last year, Warsaw issued a new Technical Modernization Plan for 2026 that commits to spending nearly $50 billion on fifth-generation fighter jets, UAVs, assault helicopters, short-range rockets, submarines and cybersecurity.
Poland is an important purchaser of U.S. military equipment. Warsaw plans on acquiring up to eight Patriot air defense batteries. Since the end of the Cold War, the Polish Air Force has been transitioning from Soviet-era platforms to largely U.S.-made aircraft, beginning with the acquisition of 48 F-16s.
In January, Poland signed a multibillion-dollar deal to purchase 32 F-35A fighter jets, thereby vaulting itself into the ranks of NATO’s premier air forces.
Which brings a particularly important point. As much as people hate Trump's "pay us the money to be there" rhetoric since is insulting and humilliating and it erodes the US's soft power and is Trump using the US power to bully people and it treats the US Armed Forces as a mercenary army and and and.....fact it, there's several countries that are paying the money. Because they have no other choice if they want to keep being countries.
South Korea, Japan and now Poland are all now paying the money. Guess what all 3 have in common.
They agreed to increase their military spend to Obama?
Keep telling yourself that matters.
Is it because we demonstrated our untrustworthiness as an ally, and so they cannot rely upon our not abandoning them?
On the new order, there's no allies, there's people that pay for being on the US umbrella and everybody outside it. And a lot of countries are paying for the privilege because the alternative is still much, much worse. Unless you are, let's say, Duterte, and don't give a fuck about the human rights of your citizens, then you can take the Chinese money.
It is what it is.
I'd put more money on Russia's literal territorial expansionism at the barrel of a tank having a more significant influence on Poland's military budget than Trump blustering.
West Germany was once the centerpiece of NATO’s anti-Soviet defense and host to hundreds of thousands of U.S. and Allied forces. Today that role is increasingly assumed by Poland, one of the most stalwart members of the alliance. It is one of only six countries to meet NATO’s goal of spending 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, has welcomed U.S. forces returning to Europe, and has undertaken a serious and sustained program of military modernization.
As part of the overall global buildup of U.S. military capabilities, the U.S. Army has begun rotational deployments of an armored brigade combat team, or ABCT, to Poland. Last year, the Pentagon decided to expand this effort with a forward-deployed division headquarters, pre-positioned equipment for a second ABCT, logistics units and an MQ-9 Reaper drone squadron located in that country.
Over time, the plan is to create the infrastructure to support the rotational deployment of two ABCTs, plus additional combat enablers, including both aviation forces and long-range fires.
Just last week, the U.S. Army decided to reactivate its V Corps and return part of it to an as-yet undetermined location in Europe. It would make tremendous sense to locate that corps headquarters in Poland alongside the majority of U.S. Army forces operating in Europe. It would also be an important symbolic step, as V Corps was one of two heavy formations positioned in Germany for most of the Cold War. Most importantly, deploying a corps helps ensure that the U.S. Army can conduct an effective defense against large-sale conventional aggression.
Poland is more than just a good host for U.S. forces. It has committed to spending billions of dollars to create the infrastructure to support the additional U.S. deployments.
No NATO ally has done more to improve its defensive posture and to support the return of U.S. forces to Europe than Poland. In addition to meeting its 2 percent obligation, Poland has taken seriously the need to upgrade and replace aging Cold War-era Soviet equipment with modern Western systems.
Last year, Warsaw issued a new Technical Modernization Plan for 2026 that commits to spending nearly $50 billion on fifth-generation fighter jets, UAVs, assault helicopters, short-range rockets, submarines and cybersecurity.
Poland is an important purchaser of U.S. military equipment. Warsaw plans on acquiring up to eight Patriot air defense batteries. Since the end of the Cold War, the Polish Air Force has been transitioning from Soviet-era platforms to largely U.S.-made aircraft, beginning with the acquisition of 48 F-16s.
In January, Poland signed a multibillion-dollar deal to purchase 32 F-35A fighter jets, thereby vaulting itself into the ranks of NATO’s premier air forces.
Which brings a particularly important point. As much as people hate Trump's "pay us the money to be there" rhetoric since is insulting and humilliating and it erodes the US's soft power and is Trump using the US power to bully people and it treats the US Armed Forces as a mercenary army and and and.....fact it, there's several countries that are paying the money. Because they have no other choice if they want to keep being countries.
South Korea, Japan and now Poland are all now paying the money. Guess what all 3 have in common.
They agreed to increase their military spend to Obama?
Keep telling yourself that matters.
Is it because we demonstrated our untrustworthiness as an ally, and so they cannot rely upon our not abandoning them?
On the new order, there's no allies, there's people that pay for being on the US umbrella and everybody outside it. And a lot of countries are paying for the privilege because the alternative is still much, much worse. Unless you are, let's say, Duterte, and don't give a fuck about the human rights of your citizens, then you can take the Chinese money.
It is what it is.
I'd put more money on Russia's literal territorial expansionism at the barrel of a tank having a more significant influence on Poland's military budget than Trump blustering.
And yet Poland isn't dumb enough to trust the EU to protect it for some reason. Like, is not only about Trump, is about several countries having no choice than to stick to the US no matter which President is in charge. Trump only removed all the politeness about it and put it on his usual blunt matter and he made every country having to reaffirm the treaties to him.
West Germany was once the centerpiece of NATO’s anti-Soviet defense and host to hundreds of thousands of U.S. and Allied forces. Today that role is increasingly assumed by Poland, one of the most stalwart members of the alliance. It is one of only six countries to meet NATO’s goal of spending 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, has welcomed U.S. forces returning to Europe, and has undertaken a serious and sustained program of military modernization.
As part of the overall global buildup of U.S. military capabilities, the U.S. Army has begun rotational deployments of an armored brigade combat team, or ABCT, to Poland. Last year, the Pentagon decided to expand this effort with a forward-deployed division headquarters, pre-positioned equipment for a second ABCT, logistics units and an MQ-9 Reaper drone squadron located in that country.
Over time, the plan is to create the infrastructure to support the rotational deployment of two ABCTs, plus additional combat enablers, including both aviation forces and long-range fires.
Just last week, the U.S. Army decided to reactivate its V Corps and return part of it to an as-yet undetermined location in Europe. It would make tremendous sense to locate that corps headquarters in Poland alongside the majority of U.S. Army forces operating in Europe. It would also be an important symbolic step, as V Corps was one of two heavy formations positioned in Germany for most of the Cold War. Most importantly, deploying a corps helps ensure that the U.S. Army can conduct an effective defense against large-sale conventional aggression.
Poland is more than just a good host for U.S. forces. It has committed to spending billions of dollars to create the infrastructure to support the additional U.S. deployments.
No NATO ally has done more to improve its defensive posture and to support the return of U.S. forces to Europe than Poland. In addition to meeting its 2 percent obligation, Poland has taken seriously the need to upgrade and replace aging Cold War-era Soviet equipment with modern Western systems.
Last year, Warsaw issued a new Technical Modernization Plan for 2026 that commits to spending nearly $50 billion on fifth-generation fighter jets, UAVs, assault helicopters, short-range rockets, submarines and cybersecurity.
Poland is an important purchaser of U.S. military equipment. Warsaw plans on acquiring up to eight Patriot air defense batteries. Since the end of the Cold War, the Polish Air Force has been transitioning from Soviet-era platforms to largely U.S.-made aircraft, beginning with the acquisition of 48 F-16s.
In January, Poland signed a multibillion-dollar deal to purchase 32 F-35A fighter jets, thereby vaulting itself into the ranks of NATO’s premier air forces.
Which brings a particularly important point. As much as people hate Trump's "pay us the money to be there" rhetoric since is insulting and humilliating and it erodes the US's soft power and is Trump using the US power to bully people and it treats the US Armed Forces as a mercenary army and and and.....fact it, there's several countries that are paying the money. Because they have no other choice if they want to keep being countries.
South Korea, Japan and now Poland are all now paying the money. Guess what all 3 have in common.
They agreed to increase their military spend to Obama?
Keep telling yourself that matters.
Is it because we demonstrated our untrustworthiness as an ally, and so they cannot rely upon our not abandoning them?
On the new order, there's no allies, there's people that pay for being on the US umbrella and everybody outside it. And a lot of countries are paying for the privilege because the alternative is still much, much worse. Unless you are, let's say, Duterte, and don't give a fuck about the human rights of your citizens, then you can take the Chinese money.
It is what it is.
I'd put more money on Russia's literal territorial expansionism at the barrel of a tank having a more significant influence on Poland's military budget than Trump blustering.
And yet Poland isn't dumb enough to trust the EU to protect it for some reason. Like, is not only about Trump, is about several countries having no choice than to stick to the US no matter which President is in charge. Trump only removed all the politeness about it and put it on his usual blunt matter and he made every country having to reaffirm the treaties to him.
The EU wasn't created with mutual defense in mind but rather economic ones since hey check it out: all the major players in the EU are part of NATO.
Further, it's a little ridiculous to expect europe to just sponaneously form a unified military command inside of 4 years.
Also, no one could have reasonably expected a vindictive moron would wind up in charge of the united states and then proceed to shoot himself in the foot vis a vis america's standing in the world.
Overall, with the US withdrawal from the world stage, there's only 5 major countries that have gotten or are on the way to get a trade deal. Everybody else is going to have to deal on it's own:
South Korea. The North Korea situation kinda ended up on: NK keeps their nuclear program, but they stop their ICBM program, so they keep their nukes, but they can't nuke Seattle and beyond. So, South Korea, that needs to be under the US umbrella, ended up paying for it, trade deal got signed.
Mexico. Despite all the posturing on both sides, Lopez Obrador realized that an economic pissing match with Trump was going to make his presidency go up in flames. So, he told Peña Nieto to negotiate on the lame duck season and that he would confirm the deal, which he did.
Canada. With Mexico on board of NAFTA2, and Canada being an oil country, they also got no other choice but to cave and sign NAFTA2.
Japan. Japan, much like SK, also needs to be under the US umbrella. Abe thought that he could suck up to Trump and not have to sign anything, got tariffs for his bother. He also saw SK, Mexico and Canada sign up, so he also caved, trade deal got signed.
United Kingdom. The endless Brextensions are over, and the UK kinda needs a trade partner before the end of the year, since that's when the negotiation period ends. The only realistic choice is the US, so is going to be a long year of things getting worse until they also cave and sign a deal too.
That's it. That's everybody that gets a preferential treatment. On China, the Phase 1 deal is basically a time out, but the trade war is still on, and while neither side is willing to cave, China has the most to lose. And they can't cave, else the CCP loses face and everything goes down in flames. So they seem kinda screwed honestly.
It's more like Donnie knew that he could squeeze and work these countries because, they way things were setting up, they weren't going to have any other partners or any other way to get the trade deals that they needed, so they essentially had to let the orange moron play mafia don and set some extremely one-sided trade and military terms- because, quite realistically, where else were they going to turn? Without the shield of the U.S., Japan and South Korea are essentially at the mercy of North Korea and China. We're also one of the biggest trading partners for Mexico and Canada, and losing access to us would have pretty much killed their economies, as well as forced them to enter a seller's market overseas. And the UK is pretty much spinning ass-over-teakettle thanks to Brexit, and they're currently trying to hammer something out with the EU, which is going, well... poorly. So of course, like the fat orange snake he is, Trump will squirm and slither in, and offer them a deal which is much better for us than it is for them, on the premise that we're the only partner they'll have for shipping a lot of this stuff the longer the negotiations with the EU take.
As far as China? We've got more to lose from the trade wars. Our big companies have grown so dependent on cheap Chinese labor to build their products, to buy rare earths and minerals for their electronics, and to sell their crops and other things that the longer this goes on, the more they suffer and lose money, the more products start costing...
This is all because Trump wants to be praised for being the best dealmaker when he's really taking advantage of weak people and proceeding to piss in their Cheerios before demanding they eat it and tell him thank you for it.
That's another way to put it, I'll admit. Oh, and if people think that a UK deal is merely about drug prices, they are thinking way too small. Is not merely that the UK has no other realistic trading partner, is that they pissed away their remaining leverage with the last 3 years of Brexit extensions, so Trump will take them to the cleaners.
On China I disagree, the US can deal with more expensive goods, but China is going to have a bigger problem finding buyers for all their cheap crap without the US. Not to mention that if the US decides to get aggressive, they can just cut the trade routes and see the fireworks. But we'll see what happens after the Phase 1 armistice ends.
West Germany was once the centerpiece of NATO’s anti-Soviet defense and host to hundreds of thousands of U.S. and Allied forces. Today that role is increasingly assumed by Poland, one of the most stalwart members of the alliance. It is one of only six countries to meet NATO’s goal of spending 2 percent of gross domestic product on defense, has welcomed U.S. forces returning to Europe, and has undertaken a serious and sustained program of military modernization.
As part of the overall global buildup of U.S. military capabilities, the U.S. Army has begun rotational deployments of an armored brigade combat team, or ABCT, to Poland. Last year, the Pentagon decided to expand this effort with a forward-deployed division headquarters, pre-positioned equipment for a second ABCT, logistics units and an MQ-9 Reaper drone squadron located in that country.
Over time, the plan is to create the infrastructure to support the rotational deployment of two ABCTs, plus additional combat enablers, including both aviation forces and long-range fires.
Just last week, the U.S. Army decided to reactivate its V Corps and return part of it to an as-yet undetermined location in Europe. It would make tremendous sense to locate that corps headquarters in Poland alongside the majority of U.S. Army forces operating in Europe. It would also be an important symbolic step, as V Corps was one of two heavy formations positioned in Germany for most of the Cold War. Most importantly, deploying a corps helps ensure that the U.S. Army can conduct an effective defense against large-sale conventional aggression.
Poland is more than just a good host for U.S. forces. It has committed to spending billions of dollars to create the infrastructure to support the additional U.S. deployments.
No NATO ally has done more to improve its defensive posture and to support the return of U.S. forces to Europe than Poland. In addition to meeting its 2 percent obligation, Poland has taken seriously the need to upgrade and replace aging Cold War-era Soviet equipment with modern Western systems.
Last year, Warsaw issued a new Technical Modernization Plan for 2026 that commits to spending nearly $50 billion on fifth-generation fighter jets, UAVs, assault helicopters, short-range rockets, submarines and cybersecurity.
Poland is an important purchaser of U.S. military equipment. Warsaw plans on acquiring up to eight Patriot air defense batteries. Since the end of the Cold War, the Polish Air Force has been transitioning from Soviet-era platforms to largely U.S.-made aircraft, beginning with the acquisition of 48 F-16s.
In January, Poland signed a multibillion-dollar deal to purchase 32 F-35A fighter jets, thereby vaulting itself into the ranks of NATO’s premier air forces.
Which brings a particularly important point. As much as people hate Trump's "pay us the money to be there" rhetoric since is insulting and humilliating and it erodes the US's soft power and is Trump using the US power to bully people and it treats the US Armed Forces as a mercenary army and and and.....fact it, there's several countries that are paying the money. Because they have no other choice if they want to keep being countries.
South Korea, Japan and now Poland are all now paying the money. Guess what all 3 have in common.
They agreed to increase their military spend to Obama?
Keep telling yourself that matters.
Is it because we demonstrated our untrustworthiness as an ally, and so they cannot rely upon our not abandoning them?
On the new order, there's no allies, there's people that pay for being on the US umbrella and everybody outside it. And a lot of countries are paying for the privilege because the alternative is still much, much worse. Unless you are, let's say, Duterte, and don't give a fuck about the human rights of your citizens, then you can take the Chinese money.
It is what it is.
I'd put more money on Russia's literal territorial expansionism at the barrel of a tank having a more significant influence on Poland's military budget than Trump blustering.
And yet Poland isn't dumb enough to trust the EU to protect it for some reason. Like, is not only about Trump, is about several countries having no choice than to stick to the US no matter which President is in charge. Trump only removed all the politeness about it and put it on his usual blunt matter and he made every country having to reaffirm the treaties to him.
The EU wasn't created with mutual defense in mind but rather economic ones since hey check it out: all the major players in the EU are part of NATO.
Further, it's a little ridiculous to expect europe to just sponaneously form a unified military command inside of 4 years.
Following up on that, the EU (originally started as the European Coal and Steel union) was explicitly set up to make war difficult.
The biggest fear in Europe at the time was that Europeans were going to eternally fight with each other and the rest of the world, because, face it, fighting others and taking their shit has been the European modus operandi for the last 2 thousand years. Seeing the results of 2 World Wars, this was seen as a bleak future that no-one wanted anymore.
So, by creating inter-dependencies on vital things (like, back then, steel and coal) the proposition of "going over and giving the Germans a good trashing" became a very bad deal, as those Germans were making steel for you and those French supplied the coal you needed for electricity (and warships)
So...The French, The Dutch, The Danes, they would still fight with each other, but now it would be over policy, and in courts. Debating if the other held up their bargain, they promised to rebuild that highway if you clean up the rivers, but they didn't...the bastards, we'll SUE them!
I think "Yes, Minister" has a fun little cynical piece about the reason the UK wanted to be in the EU, it boils down to "Basically to thwart the French and be a thorn in their sides...but without all the shooting and dying"
That's another way to put it, I'll admit. Oh, and if people think that a UK deal is merely about drug prices, they are thinking way too small. Is not merely that the UK has no other realistic trading partner, is that they pissed away their remaining leverage with the last 3 years of Brexit extensions, so Trump will take them to the cleaners.
On China I disagree, the US can deal with more expensive goods, but China is going to have a bigger problem finding buyers for all their cheap crap without the US. Not to mention that if the US decides to get aggressive, they can just cut the trade routes and see the fireworks. But we'll see what happens after the Phase 1 armistice ends.
The US cant get agressive with China, with Donny on a race to the bottom, and China spreading its influence faster than ever, the end of US egemony can be seen clearly on the horizon. It might already be inevitable, unless the next POTUS is a foreign relations wizard.
Yes, with a quick verbal "boom." You take a man's peko, you deny him his dab, all that is left is to rise up and tear down the walls of Jericho with a ".....not!" -TexiKen
That's another way to put it, I'll admit. Oh, and if people think that a UK deal is merely about drug prices, they are thinking way too small. Is not merely that the UK has no other realistic trading partner, is that they pissed away their remaining leverage with the last 3 years of Brexit extensions, so Trump will take them to the cleaners.
On China I disagree, the US can deal with more expensive goods, but China is going to have a bigger problem finding buyers for all their cheap crap without the US. Not to mention that if the US decides to get aggressive, they can just cut the trade routes and see the fireworks. But we'll see what happens after the Phase 1 armistice ends.
The US cant get agressive with China, with Donny on a race to the bottom, and China spreading its influence faster than ever, the end of US egemony can be seen clearly on the horizon. It might already be inevitable, unless the next POTUS is a foreign relations wizard.
This is assuming an ever expanding and prosperous China, which like... they've got their own internal bullshit bubbling up. It could get messy internally real quick over there.
That's another way to put it, I'll admit. Oh, and if people think that a UK deal is merely about drug prices, they are thinking way too small. Is not merely that the UK has no other realistic trading partner, is that they pissed away their remaining leverage with the last 3 years of Brexit extensions, so Trump will take them to the cleaners.
On China I disagree, the US can deal with more expensive goods, but China is going to have a bigger problem finding buyers for all their cheap crap without the US. Not to mention that if the US decides to get aggressive, they can just cut the trade routes and see the fireworks. But we'll see what happens after the Phase 1 armistice ends.
China's been spreading it's influence into Africa dude, an entire continent that loves cheap goods and which the US can't cut trade routes with due to a lack of influence in the various regions around the indian ocean.
Not to mentioned leaving the TPP handed all the trade influence in SE Asia to China
Like I'm trying to imagine some of the other nations trying to interdict China and I just don't see it; the handful of countries that the us can pressure into that (indonesia, taiwan, singapore) don't have the military assets to pull that off or (in the case of Saudi arabia) don't give a shit.
Like india might be able to pull it off but they're more interested in being a regional power in their own right then doing america's bidding.
Which leaves the only option being patrolling thousands of miles of african coast line with probably 2 or 3 fleets and that shit is gonna get real expensive real fast.
Erdoğan really fucked up the strategic positioning re. Russia and NATO recently IMO. Like, at the end of the day, Russia is never going to align with them.
Erdoğan really fucked up the strategic positioning re. Russia and NATO recently IMO. Like, at the end of the day, Russia is never going to align with them.
And yet, NATO can't let him eat shit like he deserves to since that would mean giving up the Hellespont to Putin.
Erdoğan really fucked up the strategic positioning re. Russia and NATO recently IMO. Like, at the end of the day, Russia is never going to align with them.
And yet, NATO can't let him eat shit like he deserves to since that would mean giving up the Hellespont to Putin.
Hope they squeeze him at least.
And five years ago all of that would have mattered. But with Trump in the whitehouse actively undermining NATO and slavishly obedient to the whims of Putin this is a way less predictable situation then it should be.
And that's not evern factoring in that Trump doesn't give a shit about Syria to begin with.
Ian Bremmer is the founder of geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group.
Is it changing his tune, or just playing both sides against each other?
Not impossible he’s playing both, but in this particular case Syrian forces backed by Russian planes has directly led to Turkish force deaths.
Erdogan is a strongman, so his power erodes if he can’t project strength in his own territory and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s super pissed about Putin’s actions.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
Ian Bremmer is the founder of geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group.
Is it changing his tune, or just playing both sides against each other?
Not impossible he’s playing both, but in this particular case Syrian forces backed by Russian planes has directly led to Turkish force deaths.
Erdogan is a strongman, so his power erodes if he can’t project strength in his own territory and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s super pissed about Putin’s actions.
Out of curiousity, is Turkey actually defending it's own territory or is this a case of Syria evicting them from occupied territory? I ask because I seem to recall Erdogan tried to make a land grab at some point.
Ian Bremmer is the founder of geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group.
Is it changing his tune, or just playing both sides against each other?
Not impossible he’s playing both, but in this particular case Syrian forces backed by Russian planes has directly led to Turkish force deaths.
Erdogan is a strongman, so his power erodes if he can’t project strength in his own territory and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s super pissed about Putin’s actions.
Out of curiousity, is Turkey actually defending it's own territory or is this a case of Syria evicting them from occupied territory? I ask because I seem to recall Erdogan tried to make a land grab at some point.
The latter, Idlib is part of northwestern Syria, this is Putin and Al-Assad mopping up.
Ian Bremmer is the founder of geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group.
Is it changing his tune, or just playing both sides against each other?
Not impossible he’s playing both, but in this particular case Syrian forces backed by Russian planes has directly led to Turkish force deaths.
Erdogan is a strongman, so his power erodes if he can’t project strength in his own territory and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s super pissed about Putin’s actions.
Out of curiousity, is Turkey actually defending it's own territory or is this a case of Syria evicting them from occupied territory? I ask because I seem to recall Erdogan tried to make a land grab at some point.
The latter, Idlib is part of northwestern Syria, this is Putin and Al-Assad mopping up.
Turkey is frustrated that they're trying to take back what he'd rightfully stolen instead of paying the ransom.
That's another way to put it, I'll admit. Oh, and if people think that a UK deal is merely about drug prices, they are thinking way too small. Is not merely that the UK has no other realistic trading partner, is that they pissed away their remaining leverage with the last 3 years of Brexit extensions, so Trump will take them to the cleaners.
On China I disagree, the US can deal with more expensive goods, but China is going to have a bigger problem finding buyers for all their cheap crap without the US. Not to mention that if the US decides to get aggressive, they can just cut the trade routes and see the fireworks. But we'll see what happens after the Phase 1 armistice ends.
The US cant get agressive with China, with Donny on a race to the bottom, and China spreading its influence faster than ever, the end of US egemony can be seen clearly on the horizon. It might already be inevitable, unless the next POTUS is a foreign relations wizard.
This is assuming an ever expanding and prosperous China, which like... they've got their own internal bullshit bubbling up. It could get messy internally real quick over there.
Who wins wars and foreign relations is the side that screws up the least. And I know its easy for many of us in the States and some of Europe to be so disgusted with our leadership, that countries like Russia and China seem like the next big deal in comparison. That's not necessarily true.
It's still better to have an erratic U.S. as an ally for *most* nations than not at this point.
Ian Bremmer is the founder of geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group.
Is it changing his tune, or just playing both sides against each other?
Not impossible he’s playing both, but in this particular case Syrian forces backed by Russian planes has directly led to Turkish force deaths.
Erdogan is a strongman, so his power erodes if he can’t project strength in his own territory and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s super pissed about Putin’s actions.
The most likely explanation is Erdogan is not engaged in any kind of long-term thinking. He's doing whatever strikes him as the most strongman course of action at the time.
Ian Bremmer is the founder of geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group.
Is it changing his tune, or just playing both sides against each other?
Not impossible he’s playing both, but in this particular case Syrian forces backed by Russian planes has directly led to Turkish force deaths.
Erdogan is a strongman, so his power erodes if he can’t project strength in his own territory and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s super pissed about Putin’s actions.
The most likely explanation is Erdogan is not engaged in any kind of long-term thinking. He's doing whatever strikes him as the most strongman course of action at the time.
It does explain why Erdogan managed to alienate pretty much everybody that may want to ally with him. Also, he thought that he could get away with anything given that NATO ain't kicking Turkey out no matter what. Ok. But that doesn't mean actual support for a Quixotic last stand on Syria, just plenty of thoughts and prayers given that neither Germany or France or the US seem on a hurry to bail him out so far.
President Donald Trump’s new acting intelligence director, Richard Grenell, used to do consulting work on behalf of an Eastern European oligarch who is now a fugitive and was recently barred from entering the U.S. under anti-corruption sanctions imposed last month by the State Department.
In 2016, Grenell wrote several articles defending the oligarch, a Moldovan politician named Vladimir Plahotniuc, but did not disclose that he was being paid, according to records and interviews. Grenell also did not register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, which generally requires people to disclose work in the U.S. on behalf of foreign politicians.
[...]
“That’s really easy, he should not have a clearance,” said Kel McClanahan, a Washington-area lawyer specializing in security clearances. “If he were one of my clients and just a normal [federal employee], he would almost assuredly not have a clearance.”
McClanahan said it’s unclear how Grenell could have already gotten a clearance as an ambassador. The House Oversight Committee is investigating whether the Trump administration has overruled career officials in granting security clearances to political appointees.
As Trump’s pick for acting director of national intelligence, Grenell will have access to the country’s most sensitive secrets. Grenell isn’t subject to Senate confirmation because Trump appointed him on a temporary basis.
Ian Bremmer is the founder of geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group.
Is it changing his tune, or just playing both sides against each other?
Not impossible he’s playing both, but in this particular case Syrian forces backed by Russian planes has directly led to Turkish force deaths.
Erdogan is a strongman, so his power erodes if he can’t project strength in his own territory and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s super pissed about Putin’s actions.
The most likely explanation is Erdogan is not engaged in any kind of long-term thinking. He's doing whatever strikes him as the most strongman course of action at the time.
It does explain why Erdogan managed to alienate pretty much everybody that may want to ally with him. Also, he thought that he could get away with anything given that NATO ain't kicking Turkey out no matter what. Ok. But that doesn't mean actual support for a Quixotic last stand on Syria, just plenty of thoughts and prayers given that neither Germany or France or the US seem on a hurry to bail him out so far.
My working theory is that Erdoagn got into Mussolini's stash in that he foresaw himself as destined to rebuild a lost empire and that no one was actually going to try and stop him from trying to annex chunks of syria due to how unpopular Assad was on the world stage. Further, Syria it stood to reason that Syria was weak after close to a decade of internal division.
He underestimated russia's commitment though and I'd be shocked if trump goes to bat for him due to how turkey has flipped him the bird on both the missiles and how them shit stomping the kurds made him look bad.
Trump just might go to bat for Erdogan if he starts waving around whatever blackmail he's got regarding Michael Flynn, or the Khashoggi murder or whatever else is down there. But Trump might feel that he's past the threat of impeachment or anything, so might not care anymore.
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
Trump might go to bat for Erdogan because he's a senile flailing imbecile also lacking long term thinking who wants to cozy up with strongmen types because his sloshing brain chemicals feel like he'll look cool and tough beside them too, like the spoiled rich brat trying to be buds with the school bully. Or if Putin tells him to for some reason. Or his poops are bad because of his fast food. There's no telling because there's no reasoning behind him but immediate emotional gratification.
I am kind of surprised Trump has not yet reacted to COVID-19 like he wanted to do with ebola. Especially as he could use it to piss off a bunch of countries.
I am kind of surprised Trump has not yet reacted to COVID-19 like he wanted to do with ebola. Especially as he could use it to piss off a bunch of countries.
I'll bet China has made clear that it would impact trade negotiations, since he needs it spelled out for him.
I am kind of surprised Trump has not yet reacted to COVID-19 like he wanted to do with ebola. Especially as he could use it to piss off a bunch of countries.
It's possible that Trump doesn't understand what the virus is.
Bothered to check and a minute or so on Google landed me on the CDC page:
Any U.S. citizen returning to the United States who has been in Hubei province, China in the previous 14 days may be subject to up to 14 days of quarantine.
Any U.S. citizen returning to the United States who has been in the rest of mainland China within the previous 14 days may undergo a health screening and possible self-quarantine.
Please read these Department of Homeland Security supplemental instructions for further details.
U.S. citizens are encouraged to monitor media and local information sources and factor updated information into personal travel plans and activities. You may also follow us on Twitter and Facebook.
If you travel, you should enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program to receive updates.
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Is it because we demonstrated our untrustworthiness as an ally, and so they cannot rely upon our not abandoning them?
On the new order, there's no allies, there's people that pay for being on the US umbrella and everybody outside it. And a lot of countries are paying for the privilege because the alternative is still much, much worse. Unless you are, let's say, Duterte, and don't give a fuck about the human rights of your citizens, then you can take the Chinese/Russian money.
It is what it is.
I'd put more money on Russia's literal territorial expansionism at the barrel of a tank having a more significant influence on Poland's military budget than Trump blustering.
And yet Poland isn't dumb enough to trust the EU to protect it for some reason. Like, is not only about Trump, is about several countries having no choice than to stick to the US no matter which President is in charge. Trump only removed all the politeness about it and put it on his usual blunt matter and he made every country having to reaffirm the treaties to him.
The EU wasn't created with mutual defense in mind but rather economic ones since hey check it out: all the major players in the EU are part of NATO.
Further, it's a little ridiculous to expect europe to just sponaneously form a unified military command inside of 4 years.
It's more like Donnie knew that he could squeeze and work these countries because, they way things were setting up, they weren't going to have any other partners or any other way to get the trade deals that they needed, so they essentially had to let the orange moron play mafia don and set some extremely one-sided trade and military terms- because, quite realistically, where else were they going to turn? Without the shield of the U.S., Japan and South Korea are essentially at the mercy of North Korea and China. We're also one of the biggest trading partners for Mexico and Canada, and losing access to us would have pretty much killed their economies, as well as forced them to enter a seller's market overseas. And the UK is pretty much spinning ass-over-teakettle thanks to Brexit, and they're currently trying to hammer something out with the EU, which is going, well... poorly. So of course, like the fat orange snake he is, Trump will squirm and slither in, and offer them a deal which is much better for us than it is for them, on the premise that we're the only partner they'll have for shipping a lot of this stuff the longer the negotiations with the EU take.
As far as China? We've got more to lose from the trade wars. Our big companies have grown so dependent on cheap Chinese labor to build their products, to buy rare earths and minerals for their electronics, and to sell their crops and other things that the longer this goes on, the more they suffer and lose money, the more products start costing...
This is all because Trump wants to be praised for being the best dealmaker when he's really taking advantage of weak people and proceeding to piss in their Cheerios before demanding they eat it and tell him thank you for it.
I can has cheezburger, yes?
On China I disagree, the US can deal with more expensive goods, but China is going to have a bigger problem finding buyers for all their cheap crap without the US. Not to mention that if the US decides to get aggressive, they can just cut the trade routes and see the fireworks. But we'll see what happens after the Phase 1 armistice ends.
Following up on that, the EU (originally started as the European Coal and Steel union) was explicitly set up to make war difficult.
The biggest fear in Europe at the time was that Europeans were going to eternally fight with each other and the rest of the world, because, face it, fighting others and taking their shit has been the European modus operandi for the last 2 thousand years. Seeing the results of 2 World Wars, this was seen as a bleak future that no-one wanted anymore.
So, by creating inter-dependencies on vital things (like, back then, steel and coal) the proposition of "going over and giving the Germans a good trashing" became a very bad deal, as those Germans were making steel for you and those French supplied the coal you needed for electricity (and warships)
So...The French, The Dutch, The Danes, they would still fight with each other, but now it would be over policy, and in courts. Debating if the other held up their bargain, they promised to rebuild that highway if you clean up the rivers, but they didn't...the bastards, we'll SUE them!
I think "Yes, Minister" has a fun little cynical piece about the reason the UK wanted to be in the EU, it boils down to "Basically to thwart the French and be a thorn in their sides...but without all the shooting and dying"
The US cant get agressive with China, with Donny on a race to the bottom, and China spreading its influence faster than ever, the end of US egemony can be seen clearly on the horizon. It might already be inevitable, unless the next POTUS is a foreign relations wizard.
or sell it to the highest bidder who will aid his 2020 campaign
This is assuming an ever expanding and prosperous China, which like... they've got their own internal bullshit bubbling up. It could get messy internally real quick over there.
China's been spreading it's influence into Africa dude, an entire continent that loves cheap goods and which the US can't cut trade routes with due to a lack of influence in the various regions around the indian ocean.
Like I'm trying to imagine some of the other nations trying to interdict China and I just don't see it; the handful of countries that the us can pressure into that (indonesia, taiwan, singapore) don't have the military assets to pull that off or (in the case of Saudi arabia) don't give a shit.
Like india might be able to pull it off but they're more interested in being a regional power in their own right then doing america's bidding.
Which leaves the only option being patrolling thousands of miles of african coast line with probably 2 or 3 fleets and that shit is gonna get real expensive real fast.
Ian Bremmer is the founder of geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group.
And yet, NATO can't let him eat shit like he deserves to since that would mean giving up the Hellespont to Putin.
Hope they squeeze him at least.
And five years ago all of that would have mattered. But with Trump in the whitehouse actively undermining NATO and slavishly obedient to the whims of Putin this is a way less predictable situation then it should be.
And that's not evern factoring in that Trump doesn't give a shit about Syria to begin with.
Is it changing his tune, or just playing both sides against each other?
I just had a hearty, very mean spirited chuckle about this at Erdogan's expense.
Not impossible he’s playing both, but in this particular case Syrian forces backed by Russian planes has directly led to Turkish force deaths.
Erdogan is a strongman, so his power erodes if he can’t project strength in his own territory and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s super pissed about Putin’s actions.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
Out of curiousity, is Turkey actually defending it's own territory or is this a case of Syria evicting them from occupied territory? I ask because I seem to recall Erdogan tried to make a land grab at some point.
The latter, Idlib is part of northwestern Syria, this is Putin and Al-Assad mopping up.
Turkey is frustrated that they're trying to take back what he'd rightfully stolen instead of paying the ransom.
Who wins wars and foreign relations is the side that screws up the least. And I know its easy for many of us in the States and some of Europe to be so disgusted with our leadership, that countries like Russia and China seem like the next big deal in comparison. That's not necessarily true.
It's still better to have an erratic U.S. as an ally for *most* nations than not at this point.
The most likely explanation is Erdogan is not engaged in any kind of long-term thinking. He's doing whatever strikes him as the most strongman course of action at the time.
It does explain why Erdogan managed to alienate pretty much everybody that may want to ally with him. Also, he thought that he could get away with anything given that NATO ain't kicking Turkey out no matter what. Ok. But that doesn't mean actual support for a Quixotic last stand on Syria, just plenty of thoughts and prayers given that neither Germany or France or the US seem on a hurry to bail him out so far.
My working theory is that Erdoagn got into Mussolini's stash in that he foresaw himself as destined to rebuild a lost empire and that no one was actually going to try and stop him from trying to annex chunks of syria due to how unpopular Assad was on the world stage. Further, Syria it stood to reason that Syria was weak after close to a decade of internal division.
He underestimated russia's commitment though and I'd be shocked if trump goes to bat for him due to how turkey has flipped him the bird on both the missiles and how them shit stomping the kurds made him look bad.
I'll bet China has made clear that it would impact trade negotiations, since he needs it spelled out for him.
It's possible that Trump doesn't understand what the virus is.