So today is my kids first day of school. We are fortunate our district is doing fully online at least for the full semester and spent all last week getting devices to every kid in the district.
Oh and my kid got placed in her class, then the teacher took another job so our school had to scramble to replace her in two days. They did, but yikes.
Their goal is (half days this week) for kids to be online pretty much the entire day, 8:10 - 3:15 with a 45 minute break for lunch / recess. So this should be interesting, I think we will be ok with my wife and I working from home and our daughter in 5th grade and pretty focused, but I can only imagine how hard that must be for people with younger kids or otherwise lacking that luxury.
My nephew is also in our district and in first grade. His dad works landscaping and my sister retail so she changed her hours to 5-10 PM using leave / vacation to make up the difference until winter when the landscaping industry slows. My parents are also on standby in case his work runs over and someone needs to mind him during the gap.
We are in pretty good shape all things considered but this is going to be hard for a lot of people and I'm imagining it's going to be a shit show a lot of places.
An economics professor is estimating that at least 250k cases so far are directly due to Sturgis. Which is, to be honest, way worse than I was expecting.
Scooter on
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ElldrenIs a woman dammitceterum censeoRegistered Userregular
Also the 6 feet thing is pointless when indoors with shared air
The 6 feet thing is about droplet range
If it’s been aerosolized you’re fucked regardless without a respirator
fuck gendered marketing
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daveNYCWhy universe hate Waspinator?Registered Userregular
So the university re-openings continue to be a smoking hole in the ground. Kids are getting sick, and in defiance of surprisingly sane advice from the feds are sending them and their viral loads back to stay with their parents while they isolate. Link.
Last Monday, top officials on the White House coronavirus task force issued an urgent warning to governors across the country: Stop sending your COVID-infected college students home to their parents or risk another nationwide surge, just like the one that overwhelmed the South this summer.
So far, the task force’s request for governors to talk to their college presidents appears to have made little difference. By the end of the week, some colleges in the country’s biggest coronavirus hot spots not only were still allowing students to go home after they’d been exposed or infected—they were ordering them to.
So same potential infection spread as with the primary and secondary schools opening, but even dumber because the colleges could have prepped isolation dorms and the parents of college aged kids are generally going to be that much older therefore at risk than the ones in elementary school.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
@Drew_McNichols & Joe Sabia ("Contagion Externality of Super-spreader") finds Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was a local & nationwide spreader of COVID-19. Estimated public health cost: ~$12B
Goddamned externalities
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MrMonroepassed outon the floor nowRegistered Userregular
edited September 2020
That is about a hundred times worse than I had anticipated the upper limit of "worst case scenario" of Sturgis would be, good lord. I wonder what the r was among people who contracted at the rally.
So the university re-openings continue to be a smoking hole in the ground. Kids are getting sick, and in defiance of surprisingly sane advice from the feds are sending them and their viral loads back to stay with their parents while they isolate. Link.
Last Monday, top officials on the White House coronavirus task force issued an urgent warning to governors across the country: Stop sending your COVID-infected college students home to their parents or risk another nationwide surge, just like the one that overwhelmed the South this summer.
So far, the task force’s request for governors to talk to their college presidents appears to have made little difference. By the end of the week, some colleges in the country’s biggest coronavirus hot spots not only were still allowing students to go home after they’d been exposed or infected—they were ordering them to.
So same potential infection spread as with the primary and secondary schools opening, but even dumber because the colleges could have prepped isolation dorms and the parents of college aged kids are generally going to be that much older therefore at risk than the ones in elementary school.
Even if you do isolation dorms, as my school has done, it's not effective because those idiot kids are not in a prison and so they can, and have, just gone out to socialize.
I got an email from my school's chancellor asking all students to essentially self isolate for 2 weeks to stop a rise in positive covid tests, under threat of semester long suspension if you don't.
Effective at 5 p.m. Monday, Sept. 7, through 5 p.m. Monday, Sept. 21, I’m calling on all undergraduate students to severely limit in-person interaction and restrict their movement to that which is required for essential activities only.
A growing number of COVID-19 cases have been detected, particularly among students living off-campus, and can be linked to situations where people did not wear face coverings or practice physical distancing. We see this reflected in the data, but it’s also apparent in social media posts and in conversations with students who have tested positive. Unfortunately, too many students have chosen to host or participate in social gatherings that seem to demonstrate a high disregard for the seriousness of this virus and the risk to our entire community.
In particular, I am asking all undergraduates to avoid social gatherings. These are the major cause of the spread we have seen.
Note that these restrictions do not apply to graduate students, faculty or staff members. The good news is that we see very little evidence of infection among these populations. In the few instances where we have seen cases, we do not have evidence that infection occurred through on-campus activities.
Procrastinators got us to about 85-90% attendance through the first three classes. On lunch break now. Today is a lot of me talking at them syllabus wise, so don't really know how this is going to work.
Storm almost knocked out my power though, which is an interesting complication.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
Hey you know what I forgot about 'til now? That the US Senate exists, ever since they WENT ON A BREAK DURING A PANDEMIC.
So the university re-openings continue to be a smoking hole in the ground. Kids are getting sick, and in defiance of surprisingly sane advice from the feds are sending them and their viral loads back to stay with their parents while they isolate. Link.
Last Monday, top officials on the White House coronavirus task force issued an urgent warning to governors across the country: Stop sending your COVID-infected college students home to their parents or risk another nationwide surge, just like the one that overwhelmed the South this summer.
So far, the task force’s request for governors to talk to their college presidents appears to have made little difference. By the end of the week, some colleges in the country’s biggest coronavirus hot spots not only were still allowing students to go home after they’d been exposed or infected—they were ordering them to.
So same potential infection spread as with the primary and secondary schools opening, but even dumber because the colleges could have prepped isolation dorms and the parents of college aged kids are generally going to be that much older therefore at risk than the ones in elementary school.
Even if you do isolation dorms, as my school has done, it's not effective because those idiot kids are not in a prison and so they can, and have, just gone out to socialize.
I got an email from my school's chancellor asking all students to essentially self isolate for 2 weeks to stop a rise in positive covid tests, under threat of semester long suspension if you don't.
Effective at 5 p.m. Monday, Sept. 7, through 5 p.m. Monday, Sept. 21, I’m calling on all undergraduate students to severely limit in-person interaction and restrict their movement to that which is required for essential activities only.
A growing number of COVID-19 cases have been detected, particularly among students living off-campus, and can be linked to situations where people did not wear face coverings or practice physical distancing. We see this reflected in the data, but it’s also apparent in social media posts and in conversations with students who have tested positive. Unfortunately, too many students have chosen to host or participate in social gatherings that seem to demonstrate a high disregard for the seriousness of this virus and the risk to our entire community.
In particular, I am asking all undergraduates to avoid social gatherings. These are the major cause of the spread we have seen.
Note that these restrictions do not apply to graduate students, faculty or staff members. The good news is that we see very little evidence of infection among these populations. In the few instances where we have seen cases, we do not have evidence that infection occurred through on-campus activities.
It's still not great, but sticking students who have or were exposed to the virus into quarantine on-campus would still be better than telling them to head home (however they're gonna do that) and hang with their parents for two weeks. I'm basically seeing this as the schools doing something stupid (in-person classes and all that) and then forcing other people (students and their parents) to deal with the nobody could have anticipated this happening fallout.
Colleges have got to be praying that there's a vaccine available by January, because after this mess I suspect a lot of students might skip the spring semester and just do the basic required courses at the local community college or whatever.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
Of 50 patients treated with calcifediol, one required admission to the ICU (2%), while of 26 untreated patients, 13 required admission (50%) p value X2 Fischer test p < 0.001. Univariate Risk Estimate Odds Ratio for ICU in patients with Calcifediol treatment versus without Calcifediol treatment: 0.02 (95%CI 0.002-0.17). Multivariate Risk Estimate Odds Ratio for ICU in patients with Calcifediol treatment vs Without Calcifediol treatment ICU (adjusting by Hypertension and T2DM): 0.03 (95%CI: 0.003-0.25). Of the patients treated with calcifediol, none died, and all were discharged, without complications. The 13 patients not treated with calcifediol, who were not admitted to the ICU, were discharged. Of the 13 patients admitted to the ICU, two died and the remaining 11 were discharged.
Conclusion
Our pilot study demonstrated that administration of a high dose of Calcifediol or 25-hydroxyvitamin D, a main metabolite of vitamin D endocrine system, significantly reduced the need for ICU treatment of patients requiring hospitalization due to proven COVID-19. Calcifediol seems to be able to reduce severity of the disease, but larger trials with groups properly matched will be required to show a definitive answer.
Calcifediol is the molecule that vitamin D3 is eventually metabolized into - Though it should be noted that the doses of calcifediol used greatly exceed any quantity that would be available via OCT supplement. Also, since calcifediol is effectively 'pre-metabolized', it is much faster acting.
More study is needed, but there's a promising lead here, and this isn't the only study to show positive impact from calcifediol or related compounds. Here's to hoping this can prove a helpful therapy.
Halloween idea - individual baggies? Put a few pieces in each, let them isolate a few days before Halloween and hand them out with an extender robot claw?
Or chuck them directly at kids what am I your doctor?
Average death rate appears to ~ 0.1% or 1/1000. So assuming none of these cases infect anyone else and the crowd is average, 250.
In practice I think they skew older and probably have nastier infections and it *will* spread more.
Where are you pulling that number from? That's way smaller than simple calculations of deaths/cases would suggest. I know we've gotten way better at treating it than early days but that still seems low.
Average death rate appears to ~ 0.1% or 1/1000. So assuming none of these cases infect anyone else and the crowd is average, 250.
In practice I think they skew older and probably have nastier infections and it *will* spread more.
Where are you pulling that number from? That's way smaller than simple calculations of deaths/cases would suggest. I know we've gotten way better at treating it than early days but that still seems low.
That's the estimated infection fatality rate. The other is the case fatality rate, which is always higher because mild infections that never get recorded don't show on the CFR.
Although deaths from that 250k are probably going to be closer to the CFR side of things which is ~3% right now. Because those are tested cases.
An economics professor is estimating that at least 250k cases so far are directly due to Sturgis. Which is, to be honest, way worse than I was expecting.
If that were the case you'd expect to see a jump on the graphs somewhere. The claimed effect is high enough it should be visible at least at the state-level graphs, 266k infections would be 4% of total cases over a 2-3 week period
Based on where their "high" and "moderate-high" counties are placed, you would expect California, Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming and Nevada to be affected
Wyoming spiked, but from 30 cases to 50. Nevada is trending down the entire time. Arizona was also trending down for all of August. California spiked but only during the rally and declined after it finished. Colorado saw a brief spike of an extra 50/day
The US national graph is also trending downward throughout August, though at a slower rate from Aug 22. The rate slowdown could easily be from loosening of restrictions - it's happened before - and in any case doesn't appear to have enough change from the previous decline to even account for their extra cases
Average death rate appears to ~ 0.1% or 1/1000. So assuming none of these cases infect anyone else and the crowd is average, 250.
In practice I think they skew older and probably have nastier infections and it *will* spread more.
Where are you pulling that number from? That's way smaller than simple calculations of deaths/cases would suggest. I know we've gotten way better at treating it than early days but that still seems low.
That's the estimated infection fatality rate. The other is the case fatality rate, which is always higher because mild infections that never get recorded don't show on the CFR.
Although deaths from that 250k are probably going to be closer to the CFR side of things which is ~3% right now. Because those are tested cases.
So yeah closer to 7500 is likely.
0.1% IFR? The best I've read from a realistic source is the Icelandic estimate coming in at about 0.3%. More likely seems to be 0.5%-0.7%. Do you have a recent source for 0.1% IFR? That would certainly make me happy if the IFR estimate has fallen that much!
Halloween idea - individual baggies? Put a few pieces in each, let them isolate a few days before Halloween and hand them out with an extender robot claw?
Or chuck them directly at kids what am I your doctor?
Put them out in bowls. Have your kids wash their hands before they eat them at home, ideally the next day for maximum 'safety'. Don't go to a busy place, just visit your neighbors.
Most of the studies are showing its not really very good at spreading via surfaces etc. Kids trick or treating isn't the problem for halloween, it will be indoor parties etc.
Candy given out to children in trick or treating is always wrapped for safety reasons.
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SummaryJudgmentGrab the hottest iron you can find, stride in the Tower’s front doorRegistered Userregular
edited September 2020
Michigan State is reporting as of today 124 students are known to have contracted COVID, all of whom live off campus, with no known superspreader events. The 124 were symptomatic and tested a result, i.e. it's not catching asymptomatic cases.
Honestly, not bad, considering? 30-40k students returned and are living off campus.
SummaryJudgment on
Some days Blue wonders why anyone ever bothered making numbers so small; other days she supposes even infinity needs to start somewhere.
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SummaryJudgmentGrab the hottest iron you can find, stride in the Tower’s front doorRegistered Userregular
edited September 2020
The Halloween thing, I swear, is such a gigantic fucking nothingburger
Let the kids have the goddamned holiday, you know how miserable they are (or maybe you don't), they need some normalcy, and it's the only day of the year where wearing a mask is SOP
Just put the candy in a bowl on your porch, kiddos can wear gloves, and the risk from surface contact is so low anyways
SummaryJudgment on
Some days Blue wonders why anyone ever bothered making numbers so small; other days she supposes even infinity needs to start somewhere.
Michigan State is reporting as of today 124 students are known to have contracted COVID, all of whom live off campus, with no known superspreader events. The 124 were symptomatic and tested a result, i.e. it's not catching asymptomatic cases.
Honestly, not bad, considering? 30-40k students returned and are living off campus.
I am intensely skeptical of any testing scheme that reports no asymptomatic cases.
Posts
I’m gonna catch that damn dog before it hits the ground.
Oh and my kid got placed in her class, then the teacher took another job so our school had to scramble to replace her in two days. They did, but yikes.
Their goal is (half days this week) for kids to be online pretty much the entire day, 8:10 - 3:15 with a 45 minute break for lunch / recess. So this should be interesting, I think we will be ok with my wife and I working from home and our daughter in 5th grade and pretty focused, but I can only imagine how hard that must be for people with younger kids or otherwise lacking that luxury.
My nephew is also in our district and in first grade. His dad works landscaping and my sister retail so she changed her hours to 5-10 PM using leave / vacation to make up the difference until winter when the landscaping industry slows. My parents are also on standby in case his work runs over and someone needs to mind him during the gap.
We are in pretty good shape all things considered but this is going to be hard for a lot of people and I'm imagining it's going to be a shit show a lot of places.
EDIT: We start in an hour.
Good luck man.
No one wants to be the manager who has to give bad news to the higher-ups.
An economics professor is estimating that at least 250k cases so far are directly due to Sturgis. Which is, to be honest, way worse than I was expecting.
Exposure time absolutely matters but exposure time doesn’t magically reset if you step back a couple feet every few minutes
The 6 feet thing is about droplet range
If it’s been aerosolized you’re fucked regardless without a respirator
So same potential infection spread as with the primary and secondary schools opening, but even dumber because the colleges could have prepped isolation dorms and the parents of college aged kids are generally going to be that much older therefore at risk than the ones in elementary school.
I figured literally everyone was exposed and 2/3s of them would get infected.
Even if you do isolation dorms, as my school has done, it's not effective because those idiot kids are not in a prison and so they can, and have, just gone out to socialize.
I got an email from my school's chancellor asking all students to essentially self isolate for 2 weeks to stop a rise in positive covid tests, under threat of semester long suspension if you don't.
Storm almost knocked out my power though, which is an interesting complication.
Anyway as of today they're back and they don't have any idea what to do about it still!
It's still not great, but sticking students who have or were exposed to the virus into quarantine on-campus would still be better than telling them to head home (however they're gonna do that) and hang with their parents for two weeks. I'm basically seeing this as the schools doing something stupid (in-person classes and all that) and then forcing other people (students and their parents) to deal with the nobody could have anticipated this happening fallout.
Colleges have got to be praying that there's a vaccine available by January, because after this mess I suspect a lot of students might skip the spring semester and just do the basic required courses at the local community college or whatever.
Calcifediol is the molecule that vitamin D3 is eventually metabolized into - Though it should be noted that the doses of calcifediol used greatly exceed any quantity that would be available via OCT supplement. Also, since calcifediol is effectively 'pre-metabolized', it is much faster acting.
More study is needed, but there's a promising lead here, and this isn't the only study to show positive impact from calcifediol or related compounds. Here's to hoping this can prove a helpful therapy.
Well no. Shared air tends to recirculate which increases droplet range. It also tends to do so slowly, which increases droplet suspension time.
Well you know, priorities.
Or chuck them directly at kids what am I your doctor?
And with areosols that will increase the density and therefore the dose which makes illness worse.
Average death rate appears to ~ 0.1% or 1/1000. So assuming none of these cases infect anyone else and the crowd is average, 250.
In practice I think they skew older and probably have nastier infections and it *will* spread more.
Where are you pulling that number from? That's way smaller than simple calculations of deaths/cases would suggest. I know we've gotten way better at treating it than early days but that still seems low.
That's the estimated infection fatality rate. The other is the case fatality rate, which is always higher because mild infections that never get recorded don't show on the CFR.
Although deaths from that 250k are probably going to be closer to the CFR side of things which is ~3% right now. Because those are tested cases.
So yeah closer to 7500 is likely.
Gotta keep packing them courts.
If that were the case you'd expect to see a jump on the graphs somewhere. The claimed effect is high enough it should be visible at least at the state-level graphs, 266k infections would be 4% of total cases over a 2-3 week period
Based on where their "high" and "moderate-high" counties are placed, you would expect California, Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming and Nevada to be affected
Wyoming spiked, but from 30 cases to 50. Nevada is trending down the entire time. Arizona was also trending down for all of August. California spiked but only during the rally and declined after it finished. Colorado saw a brief spike of an extra 50/day
The US national graph is also trending downward throughout August, though at a slower rate from Aug 22. The rate slowdown could easily be from loosening of restrictions - it's happened before - and in any case doesn't appear to have enough change from the previous decline to even account for their extra cases
0.1% IFR? The best I've read from a realistic source is the Icelandic estimate coming in at about 0.3%. More likely seems to be 0.5%-0.7%. Do you have a recent source for 0.1% IFR? That would certainly make me happy if the IFR estimate has fallen that much!
Put them out in bowls. Have your kids wash their hands before they eat them at home, ideally the next day for maximum 'safety'. Don't go to a busy place, just visit your neighbors.
Most of the studies are showing its not really very good at spreading via surfaces etc. Kids trick or treating isn't the problem for halloween, it will be indoor parties etc.
Hmm, I don't think so.
The CDC puts the IFR at 0.5%-0.8%.
Honestly, not bad, considering? 30-40k students returned and are living off campus.
Let the kids have the goddamned holiday, you know how miserable they are (or maybe you don't), they need some normalcy, and it's the only day of the year where wearing a mask is SOP
Just put the candy in a bowl on your porch, kiddos can wear gloves, and the risk from surface contact is so low anyways
I am intensely skeptical of any testing scheme that reports no asymptomatic cases.
Honestly quite surprised that there hasn't been a bigger push for kids masks. Faeries and animals and superheroes and the like.
I mean, I know they exist, but doesn't appear to have the penetration I'd have expected. Seems like such a gimme.