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[2020 Election] Subtle Does Not Go Here

ElkiElki get busyModerator, ClubPA mod
edited November 2020 in Debate and/or Discourse
Remaking the thread because I can, because I'm curious about the early-vote, election day split. How did PA people vote, if they did vote? And yes, the rule about personal voting discussions still apply. Don't make me regret it (or you will dun dun dun)

-

OP copied from the last one, including this sentence.

This here is your official thread for discussing the great basket of wonder and joy that is the upcoming 2020 election.

What You Can Talk About:

- Any national or local 2020 US election.
- The impact of the conventions that just happened.
- The policy platforms of candidates AS THEY PERTAIN TO THE ELECTIONS. "Biden plans to roll out a public option" is okay. "A public option is awesome because of X,Y, and Z" is not.
- Polls related to the election.
- Voting outreach efforts
- Other things that directly pertain to the 2020 election and have not been explicitly banned.

What You Can't Talk About:

- The 2020 primaries that have already occurred. Upcoming 2020 primaries, if there are any left, are okay.
- Bernie Sanders
- 20-motherfucking-16
- Hillary Fucking Clinton
- Policy in general. This is not the place to discuss health care or taxes or policing in general. We have threads for all those things! If not, feel free to make one!
- Who you plan to personally vote for. Nothing good has ever come from a conversation in these threads about why you're definitely voting for Biden / voting third party / not voting. Just rest assured that your personal reasons for voting are the best in the whole world and everyone agrees with you and thinks you're smart and good looking. Masterfully done, you.

If you have previously been banned from this thread, you are still banned from this thread, sorry. Rest assured you can participate in discussions when 2024 rolls around, assuming elections are still a thing that exists in that far away time.

HEY! LISTEN! Some bright spark had the excellent notion to link the resources thread from SE++ for people who are having a hard time, so:

If you're having a tough time of it in these testing times, here are some resources that can help.

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[2020 Election] Subtle Does Not Go Here 398 votes

Voted already
86% 346 votes
Voting in person on Tuesday
8% 34 votes
All other
4% 18 votes
Elki on
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Posts

  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Class Traitor Smoke-filled roomRegistered User regular
    Reminder that if you are stressed out to the point that it is impacting your personal well-being, be it mentally or physically, you can just take a break from all this. Go for a walk, play a video game, read a book, watch a movie. Do something other than press F5 on the news. I promise it will be there waiting for you when you get back, and you will feel better.

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  • SummaryJudgmentSummaryJudgment Today we will paint a mountain that owes us nothing. Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Reminder that if you are stressed out to the point that it is impacting your personal well-being, be it mentally or physically, you can just take a break from all this. Go for a walk, play a video game, read a book, watch a movie. Do something other than press F5 on the news. I promise it will be there waiting for you when you get back, and you will feel better.

    Yeah

    I'm not really doomscrolling tonight, I'm trying to do other things, but I can't believe we're 3 days out and like, fucking Nazis are on the ballot

    Just really kind of feeling it

    SummaryJudgment on
    And will the morning come
    All I know; we'll never see the sun
    But together we'll fight the long defeat
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  • Stabbity StyleStabbity Style Warning: Mothership Reporting Kennewick, WARegistered User regular
    I wonder how many of the people who have voted already are in situations where they'd have to vote early or it's easy to vote early regularly? Like WA or OR, where everyone gets their ballot mailed if they're registered, or if they're out of state/overseas and have to cast provisional/mail-in ballots. Like, the number of people voting early is definitely up just cause of the covid stuff, but I don't know how much compared to previous years for forumers. Did we have a poll like this during previous presidential elections?

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  • VishNubVishNub Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    I mean PA politics threads self select for people who are highly motivated to vote, covid sensitive, and (this is maybe less true) have jobs with enough flexibility to allow early in person voting where that’s required.

    VishNub on
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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    @Undead Scottsman

    Atlas is junk. One of the many, many right wing outfits that exist purely to fuck with the polling averages. Among other things, they assume an electorate in Pennsylvania that's 85% white. Was 80% in a terrible year for Democratic turnout among minorities four years ago.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • MillMill Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    With 24 votes counted, we're over 30% past the national average for early voting. :p

    Anyways, I'll be curious to see how the polling errors break. I'm betting that the errors might actually favor Biden. The GOP has done a piss poor job of expanding their base, so a massive turnout surge isn't in their favor. This is also coupled with the fact that they tend to have reliable voters. So the pool of non-voters to convert to voters for them is relatively small in comparison to what the democrats have to work with. I'd also be surprised if the polls made the same mistake they made in 2016, I think it's more likely that they'll over correct for it.

    Mill on
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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    "Undead Scottsman"

    Atlas is junk. One of the many, many right wing outfits that exist purely to fuck with the polling averages. Among other things, they assume an electorate in Pennsylvania that's 85% white. Was 80% in a terrible year for Democratic turnout among minorities four years ago.

    Legitimately thank you for posts like this. Which I know is its own way of "unskewing" but....well, yeah.

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    An actually good pollster has mixed results for us. ABC/WaPo:

    Pennsylvania:
    Biden 51
    Trump 44

    Was 54-45 a month ago at the height of the post first debate Trump collapse.

    Florida:
    Trump 50
    Biden 48

    Was 51-47 (Trump still leading a month ago).

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Also some firm called Meeting Street Insights that I have no opinion about has a NC poll that's in line with basically everything else:

    Biden +3
    Cunningham +4
    Cooper +8

    Also has the Democratic candidates leading all three NC Supreme Court races.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • Metzger MeisterMetzger Meister Registered User regular
    I am excited for this whole thing to be done. I'd like to just know where we all stand you know?

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  • FoolOnTheHillFoolOnTheHill PhiladelphiaRegistered User regular
    I live in Pennsylvania, suburbs just outside of Philly. My wife and I are voting in person first thing in the morning on Tuesday. With all the fuckery going on, we're leaving nothing to chance. We'll be another +2 for the good team.

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  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    I am excited for this whole thing to be done. I'd like to just know where we all stand you know?

    We're all waiting for the big exhale. Problem is, there's a lot more steps there than we'd like

    Right now we need to

    -Get to the election
    -Win it handily enough for defeat all the disenfranchisement and provide zero opportunity for Supreme Court fuckery
    -Hope the Supreme Court doesn't fuck it anyway
    -Weather three months of a Lame Duck Trump presidency
    -See Biden inaugurated in late January

    And the worst part is even when we get to that exhale, we have to immediately inhale so we can yell at Biden, the democrats and anyone else who will listen that the world is burning while the USA is suffering under a police state and they need to actually do something about it.



    Undead Scottsman on
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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    I am feeling fairly confident about PA, AZ, and NC at the moment (in that order). Florida I will never trust. Georgia I am hopeful for. Texas would be beautiful but need to see election day turnout to see if Dems cannibalized all their votes. Think MI/WI are pretty well in the bag because of the COVID outbreaks up here.

    enlightenedbum on
    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • StarZapperStarZapper Vermont, Bizzaro world.Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    I prefer looking at the multitude of good news available out there, as opposed to one or two outlier polls that cause panic. Stories like this one

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27F36Z

    About how 1 million African americans have already voted in GA, up 300,000 from the same time last cycle. Which is a pretty big deal, because GA only went red by some 212,000 votes last time, so a big increase like that would be enough to flip it. Especially since down south blacks break 90 / 10 towards Biden.

    Or something like this
    https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEFF8gWB5GBgSW4-1czh2VB4qGQgEKhAIACoHCAowjsP7CjCSpPQCMKCK0wU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en

    About how the youth vote is way up in Wisconsin. I'm just saying, there's alot of good signs going around right now. Don't focus on the doom.

    StarZapper on
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  • RedTideRedTide Registered User regular
    I am feeling fairly confident about PA, AZ, and NC at the moment (in that order). Florida I will never trust. Georgia I am hopeful for. Texas would be beautiful but need to see election day turnout to see if Dems cannibalized all their votes. Think MI/WI are pretty well in the bag because of the COVID outbreaks up here.

    I think NC, WI and AZ gives us the ballgame and seems like the most likely outcome that doesn't involve PA.

    More likely then FL cause fuck florida

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  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    I live in Pennsylvania, suburbs just outside of Philly. My wife and I are voting in person first thing in the morning on Tuesday. With all the fuckery going on, we're leaving nothing to chance. We'll be another +2 for the good team.

    Out of curiosity, how widespread are the protests and whatnot with regards to the recent police shooting in Philadelphia? It was bad enough this past summer with people on the ground reporting stuff vs news media, but with everyone pushing their own private angle in addition to that with the election coming up, it's hard to get a feel for how large protests are, how widespread people taking advantage of them are (which is something which is sadly happening), and whether it's likely to mobilize or depress people (or make them feel more liable to support fascist crackdowns than they otherwise would). That's kinda....a spot my brain is tending to drift lately, wondering about that.

  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Though Wasserman's saying he thinks Dems get a 1 million+ vote margin out of Houston/Dallas/Austin alone. Clinton won them by 540k and lost the state by 800k. With San Antonio and El Paso and some swing in the suburbs...

    He keeps boosting the possibility of Blue Texas. Thinks it's more likely than Maine's 2nd CD, Iowa, or Ohio.

    Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932. Friendly reminder.
    Warren 2020
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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    I have voted absentee by mail for every election I've been alive for except two. The first one after I turned 18 because I wanted the traditional experience, and the first election after I officially moved to Chicago for the similar reason of seeing what it's like in the city. Postal voting is just too convenient otherwise. Especially with all the damn judges I have to vote for. I always mail my ballot via either a physical post office or the mailroom at work. Not just dropping it in a blue box.

    AbsoluteZero
  • HappylilElfHappylilElf Registered User regular
    I was going to vote by mail but it didn't feel like a personal enough way to say "Go fuck yourself, Donnie" so I voted in person last week.

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  • EndaroEndaro Registered User regular
    In-person voting started in my part of California yesterday, and stays open until the end of election day, so we walked in today after lunch and got our votes in.

    I have to say I love how much this county has tried to enable early voting. There was no line at all; we just walked in and and signed in (everyone is mailed personal barcodes to expedite sign in). We got our ballots and walked right up to some open voting booths, finished and left. There were free masks and gloves on offer for everyone, everything socially distanced, and someone sanitizes your electronic voting booth after you're done. It was all pretty seamless. I hope other counties/states offer similar experiences as soon as possible.

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  • TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    Harris County Clerk is taking the drive-through voting challenge seriously, posted a form to sign up for the legal representation as an intervening defendant.

    Looks like the hearing is at 10:30am Monday morning.

    @HarrisVotes
    will fight like hell to protect the 127,000 voters who utilized drive-thru voting. If you voted drive-thru and want to personally intervene in the federal lawsuit, one option for FREE legal representation is here:

    @OremLK

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  • monikermoniker Registered User regular
    I am feeling fairly confident about PA, AZ, and NC at the moment (in that order). Florida I will never trust. Georgia I am hopeful for. Texas would be beautiful but need to see election day turnout to see if Dems cannibalized all their votes. Think MI/WI are pretty well in the bag because of the COVID outbreaks up here.

    Especially considering how the respective Republican legislatures have been behaving with COVID.

    I really want to vote Whitmer for President later this decade.

    Heir
  • Undead ScottsmanUndead Scottsman Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    I used to be an election day voter, but then I decided to start doing it early so I could do it on the weekend, and this lead me to discover the early voting place is actually closer to my house than the day-of voting. :)

    This year I was going to do a mail-in ballot, but then all the USPS news happened and I decided no fucking way and was in line on the first day of early voting 10 minutes after the polls opened. First day of early voting was also Alaska Day, which I had off, so that was nice.

    Undead Scottsman on
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  • ElldrenElldren Is a woman dammit ceterum censeoRegistered User regular
    VishNub wrote: »
    I mean PA politics threads self select for people who are highly motivated to vote, covid sensitive, and (this is maybe less true) have jobs with enough flexibility to allow early in person voting where that’s required.

    This was my first time voting due to citizenship stuff but like, early voting here was super easy and fast. I think mostly because I did it out in the suburbs as opposed to near where I live. In my county early voting is not restricted to your designated polling location.

    But yeah it took me all of 10 minutes (I was timed by a poll watcher)

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  • TaramoorTaramoor Storyteller Registered User regular
    It feels weirdly helpless to be stuck in WA, having already voted. I can pretty safely guess how everything I voted on is going to turn out, and none of it will make the tiniest bit of difference if Pennsylvania, Texas, Georgia, and Florida all get ratfuckered.

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  • AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    With regards to polling, I'm wondering if the increased early voting has generated a form of confirmation bias in the results. I know I've gotten several calls from pollsters over the past few weeks (the joys of Montana having actual ramifications), and with everything we've been going through (including having to help manage my mother in law's funeral), my response to the pollsters after getting my ballot in has been a firm "sorry, not interested." I'd imagine that other people who have voted are probably less enthused about being polled, which may skew responses.

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  • Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    edited November 2020
    Put in voted early even though I'm technically dropping the thing off on Monday. Turning in Mom's then and I am za lazy. :P

    Anyway last thread re the batshit GOP response to the caravan: it doesn't surprise me, but it's still sad. That's what being waist-deep in your own BS looks like.

    Phoenix-D on
  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    It feels weirdly helpless to be stuck in WA, having already voted. I can pretty safely guess how everything I voted on is going to turn out, and none of it will make the tiniest bit of difference if Pennsylvania, Texas, Georgia, and Florida all get ratfuckered.

    *weak high-five from OR*

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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    Though Wasserman's saying he thinks Dems get a 1 million+ vote margin out of Houston/Dallas/Austin alone. Clinton won them by 540k and lost the state by 800k. With San Antonio and El Paso and some swing in the suburbs...

    He keeps boosting the possibility of Blue Texas. Thinks it's more likely than Maine's 2nd CD, Iowa, or Ohio.

    Not sure about ME2, but I would out TX going blue this election before Ohio or Iowa, yeah.

    Fleur de AlyszagdrobXaquinTofystedeth
  • FoolOnTheHillFoolOnTheHill PhiladelphiaRegistered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »
    I live in Pennsylvania, suburbs just outside of Philly. My wife and I are voting in person first thing in the morning on Tuesday. With all the fuckery going on, we're leaving nothing to chance. We'll be another +2 for the good team.

    Out of curiosity, how widespread are the protests and whatnot with regards to the recent police shooting in Philadelphia? It was bad enough this past summer with people on the ground reporting stuff vs news media, but with everyone pushing their own private angle in addition to that with the election coming up, it's hard to get a feel for how large protests are, how widespread people taking advantage of them are (which is something which is sadly happening), and whether it's likely to mobilize or depress people (or make them feel more liable to support fascist crackdowns than they otherwise would). That's kinda....a spot my brain is tending to drift lately, wondering about that.

    I'm in a working/middle class suburb of the city, and in my area, if you didn't follow the news, you'd have no idea what was going on. Due to covid, I haven't been downtown in ages, so I can't speak to how tense things are in the city proper. Keep in mind that the Philadelphia metro area sprawls over a ton of ground, so even with increased protests from the past week, there are a lot of areas that would still be fairly calm.

    Honestly, based on my wife's feedback from watching her conservative Evangelical relatives on Facebook from farther flung rural areas, I'd say there's more "concern" from PA people nowhere near the city than those who live here.

    We're also lucky to still have a ton of voting precincts available due to how PA has historically been a vote in person kind of state for the majority of us. I'm cautiously optimistic about Tuesday, with the usual caveat that this is my personal (white, middle class) gut feeling more than the data itself. My very informal survey of lawn signs in my neighborhood while out for runs skews heavily Biden (southeastern Montgomery County, for those interested).

    Maybe bad things do happen in Philadelphia sometimes, but there are a lot of righteously pissed off people here, and I'm hoping they do the right thing with the proper motivation of *gestures everywhere*.

    Jragghenwobblyheadedbob
  • MagellMagell Sphinx! Parts UnknownRegistered User regular
    I wonder how many of the people who have voted already are in situations where they'd have to vote early or it's easy to vote early regularly? Like WA or OR, where everyone gets their ballot mailed if they're registered, or if they're out of state/overseas and have to cast provisional/mail-in ballots. Like, the number of people voting early is definitely up just cause of the covid stuff, but I don't know how much compared to previous years for forumers. Did we have a poll like this during previous presidential elections?

    I think its based on ease. My whole family has voted in Florida because you can vote two weeks early up until election day. My parents are democrats who are super disturbed by how shitty Trump is, but not overly vocal about it.

  • OrphaneOrphane A black light In the deep blue seaRegistered User regular
    voted yesterday taking advantage of early voting not being restricted to normal assigned polling location. was fairly quick even with a line of people. hope enough people turn out that the US can dig itself out of this hole it put itself into.

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  • MagellMagell Sphinx! Parts UnknownRegistered User regular
    My favorite part of voting in Florida is it kind of felt like being back in Michigan because my aunt was always working at the polls there and she moved down here so when I voted I still saw her. Although its way busier here so she didn't see me.

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  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    Just a reminder that the proper way to handle a poll, any poll, is to throw it onto the pile with all the other polls. Even the best pollsters have outliers - at the same rate as any other pollster, because outliers are literally impossible to avoid - and it's the fact that they post them that MAKES them the best pollsters.

    Pennsylvania is tightening, but we have like six plausible paths to 270 right now. It's not in the bag, but we're heavily favored, and we just need to keep doing what we're doing for three more days.

    (And then keep doing a fuckton more, because our shit be broken, but first things first.)

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  • ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA mod
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Just a reminder that the proper way to handle a poll, any poll, is to throw it onto the pile with all the other polls. Even the best pollsters have outliers - at the same rate as any other pollster, because outliers are literally impossible to avoid - and it's the fact that they post them that MAKES them the best pollsters.

    Pennsylvania is tightening, but we have like six plausible paths to 270 right now. It's not in the bag, but we're heavily favored, and we just need to keep doing what we're doing for three more days.

    (And then keep doing a fuckton more, because our shit be broken, but first things first.)

    Except the PA poll.

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  • ElJeffeElJeffe Moderator, ClubPA mod
    Also, just for the sake of clarity, 538 uses split ratings for pollsters who have very little track record. B/C indicates there's nothing fundamentally wrong with their methodology (not terrible, not great), but they have no track record, so it's hard to gauge their accuracy.

    It's kinda like assigning a letter grade to someone's test based on the fact that they took notes in class and studied for a couple hours. I mean, yeah, they did everything a good student would do, but maybe they're also really fucking stupid, who knows?

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  • LucedesLucedes keeps happening for some reason Registered User regular
    I'm not a republic serial villain. Do you seriously think I'd post here if there remained the slightest chance of you affecting my vote's outcome? I did it two weeks ago.

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  • enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Just a reminder that the proper way to handle a poll, any poll, is to throw it onto the pile with all the other polls. Even the best pollsters have outliers - at the same rate as any other pollster, because outliers are literally impossible to avoid - and it's the fact that they post them that MAKES them the best pollsters.

    Pennsylvania is tightening, but we have like six plausible paths to 270 right now. It's not in the bag, but we're heavily favored, and we just need to keep doing what we're doing for three more days.

    (And then keep doing a fuckton more, because our shit be broken, but first things first.)

    I think there is no actual evidence for Pennsylvania tightening in a meaningful sense.

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  • lonelyahavalonelyahava Call me Ahava ~~She/Her~~ Move to New ZealandRegistered User regular
    My ballot was accepted as returned in DE on 24 September.

    I am so very ready to have this over with. I've been waiting forever it feels like.

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  • Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Just a reminder that the proper way to handle a poll, any poll, is to throw it onto the pile with all the other polls. Even the best pollsters have outliers - at the same rate as any other pollster, because outliers are literally impossible to avoid - and it's the fact that they post them that MAKES them the best pollsters.

    Pennsylvania is tightening, but we have like six plausible paths to 270 right now. It's not in the bag, but we're heavily favored, and we just need to keep doing what we're doing for three more days.

    (And then keep doing a fuckton more, because our shit be broken, but first things first.)

    I think there is no actual evidence for Pennsylvania tightening in a meaningful sense.

    Well, I can tell you of something that definitely tightened when I saw those numbers... :(

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