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[2020 Election] Subtle Does Not Go Here
Elki
get busyModerator, ClubPA Mod Emeritus
get busyModerator, ClubPA Mod Emeritus
Remaking the thread because I can, because I'm curious about the early-vote, election day split. How did PA people vote, if they did vote? And yes, the rule about personal voting discussions still apply. Don't make me regret it (or you will dun dun dun)
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OP copied from the last one, including this sentence.
This here is your official thread for discussing the great basket of wonder and joy that is the upcoming 2020 election.
What You Can Talk About:
- Any national or local 2020 US election.
- The impact of the conventions that just happened.
- The policy platforms of candidates AS THEY PERTAIN TO THE ELECTIONS. "Biden plans to roll out a public option" is okay. "A public option is awesome because of X,Y, and Z" is not.
- Polls related to the election.
- Voting outreach efforts
- Other things that directly pertain to the 2020 election and have not been explicitly banned.
What You Can't Talk About:
- The 2020 primaries that have already occurred. Upcoming 2020 primaries, if there are any left, are okay.
- Bernie Sanders
- 20-motherfucking-16
- Hillary Fucking Clinton
- Policy in general. This is not the place to discuss health care or taxes or policing in general. We have threads for all those things! If not, feel free to make one!
- Who you plan to personally vote for. Nothing good has ever come from a conversation in these threads about why you're definitely voting for Biden / voting third party / not voting. Just rest assured that your personal reasons for voting are the best in the whole world and everyone agrees with you and thinks you're smart and good looking. Masterfully done, you.
If you have previously been banned from this thread, you are still banned from this thread, sorry. Rest assured you can participate in discussions when 2024 rolls around, assuming elections are still a thing that exists in that far away time.
HEY! LISTEN! Some bright spark had the excellent notion to link the resources thread from SE++ for people who are having a hard time, so:
If you're having a tough time of it in these testing times, here are some resources that can help.
-
OP copied from the last one, including this sentence.
This here is your official thread for discussing the great basket of wonder and joy that is the upcoming 2020 election.
What You Can Talk About:
- Any national or local 2020 US election.
- The impact of the conventions that just happened.
- The policy platforms of candidates AS THEY PERTAIN TO THE ELECTIONS. "Biden plans to roll out a public option" is okay. "A public option is awesome because of X,Y, and Z" is not.
- Polls related to the election.
- Voting outreach efforts
- Other things that directly pertain to the 2020 election and have not been explicitly banned.
What You Can't Talk About:
- The 2020 primaries that have already occurred. Upcoming 2020 primaries, if there are any left, are okay.
- Bernie Sanders
- 20-motherfucking-16
- Hillary Fucking Clinton
- Policy in general. This is not the place to discuss health care or taxes or policing in general. We have threads for all those things! If not, feel free to make one!
- Who you plan to personally vote for. Nothing good has ever come from a conversation in these threads about why you're definitely voting for Biden / voting third party / not voting. Just rest assured that your personal reasons for voting are the best in the whole world and everyone agrees with you and thinks you're smart and good looking. Masterfully done, you.
If you have previously been banned from this thread, you are still banned from this thread, sorry. Rest assured you can participate in discussions when 2024 rolls around, assuming elections are still a thing that exists in that far away time.
HEY! LISTEN! Some bright spark had the excellent notion to link the resources thread from SE++ for people who are having a hard time, so:
If you're having a tough time of it in these testing times, here are some resources that can help.
Elki on
[2020 Election] Subtle Does Not Go Here 398 votes
Voted already
86%
346 votes
Voting in person on Tuesday
8%
34 votes
All other
4%
18 votes
+3
This discussion has been closed.
Posts
Yeah
I'm not really doomscrolling tonight, I'm trying to do other things, but I can't believe we're 3 days out and like, fucking Nazis are on the ballot
Just really kind of feeling it
Atlas is junk. One of the many, many right wing outfits that exist purely to fuck with the polling averages. Among other things, they assume an electorate in Pennsylvania that's 85% white. Was 80% in a terrible year for Democratic turnout among minorities four years ago.
Anyways, I'll be curious to see how the polling errors break. I'm betting that the errors might actually favor Biden. The GOP has done a piss poor job of expanding their base, so a massive turnout surge isn't in their favor. This is also coupled with the fact that they tend to have reliable voters. So the pool of non-voters to convert to voters for them is relatively small in comparison to what the democrats have to work with. I'd also be surprised if the polls made the same mistake they made in 2016, I think it's more likely that they'll over correct for it.
Legitimately thank you for posts like this. Which I know is its own way of "unskewing" but....well, yeah.
Pennsylvania:
Biden 51
Trump 44
Was 54-45 a month ago at the height of the post first debate Trump collapse.
Florida:
Trump 50
Biden 48
Was 51-47 (Trump still leading a month ago).
Biden +3
Cunningham +4
Cooper +8
Also has the Democratic candidates leading all three NC Supreme Court races.
We're all waiting for the big exhale. Problem is, there's a lot more steps there than we'd like
Right now we need to
-Get to the election
-Win it handily enough for defeat all the disenfranchisement and provide zero opportunity for Supreme Court fuckery
-Hope the Supreme Court doesn't fuck it anyway
-Weather three months of a Lame Duck Trump presidency
-See Biden inaugurated in late January
And the worst part is even when we get to that exhale, we have to immediately inhale so we can yell at Biden, the democrats and anyone else who will listen that the world is burning while the USA is suffering under a police state and they need to actually do something about it.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN27F36Z
About how 1 million African americans have already voted in GA, up 300,000 from the same time last cycle. Which is a pretty big deal, because GA only went red by some 212,000 votes last time, so a big increase like that would be enough to flip it. Especially since down south blacks break 90 / 10 towards Biden.
Or something like this
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEFF8gWB5GBgSW4-1czh2VB4qGQgEKhAIACoHCAowjsP7CjCSpPQCMKCK0wU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
About how the youth vote is way up in Wisconsin. I'm just saying, there's alot of good signs going around right now. Don't focus on the doom.
I think NC, WI and AZ gives us the ballgame and seems like the most likely outcome that doesn't involve PA.
More likely then FL cause fuck florida
Come Overwatch with meeeee
Out of curiosity, how widespread are the protests and whatnot with regards to the recent police shooting in Philadelphia? It was bad enough this past summer with people on the ground reporting stuff vs news media, but with everyone pushing their own private angle in addition to that with the election coming up, it's hard to get a feel for how large protests are, how widespread people taking advantage of them are (which is something which is sadly happening), and whether it's likely to mobilize or depress people (or make them feel more liable to support fascist crackdowns than they otherwise would). That's kinda....a spot my brain is tending to drift lately, wondering about that.
He keeps boosting the possibility of Blue Texas. Thinks it's more likely than Maine's 2nd CD, Iowa, or Ohio.
I have to say I love how much this county has tried to enable early voting. There was no line at all; we just walked in and and signed in (everyone is mailed personal barcodes to expedite sign in). We got our ballots and walked right up to some open voting booths, finished and left. There were free masks and gloves on offer for everyone, everything socially distanced, and someone sanitizes your electronic voting booth after you're done. It was all pretty seamless. I hope other counties/states offer similar experiences as soon as possible.
Looks like the hearing is at 10:30am Monday morning.
@OremLK
Especially considering how the respective Republican legislatures have been behaving with COVID.
I really want to vote Whitmer for President later this decade.
This year I was going to do a mail-in ballot, but then all the USPS news happened and I decided no fucking way and was in line on the first day of early voting 10 minutes after the polls opened. First day of early voting was also Alaska Day, which I had off, so that was nice.
This was my first time voting due to citizenship stuff but like, early voting here was super easy and fast. I think mostly because I did it out in the suburbs as opposed to near where I live. In my county early voting is not restricted to your designated polling location.
But yeah it took me all of 10 minutes (I was timed by a poll watcher)
twitch.tv/Taramoor
@TaramoorPlays
Taramoor on Youtube
Anyway last thread re the batshit GOP response to the caravan: it doesn't surprise me, but it's still sad. That's what being waist-deep in your own BS looks like.
*weak high-five from OR*
Not sure about ME2, but I would out TX going blue this election before Ohio or Iowa, yeah.
I'm in a working/middle class suburb of the city, and in my area, if you didn't follow the news, you'd have no idea what was going on. Due to covid, I haven't been downtown in ages, so I can't speak to how tense things are in the city proper. Keep in mind that the Philadelphia metro area sprawls over a ton of ground, so even with increased protests from the past week, there are a lot of areas that would still be fairly calm.
Honestly, based on my wife's feedback from watching her conservative Evangelical relatives on Facebook from farther flung rural areas, I'd say there's more "concern" from PA people nowhere near the city than those who live here.
We're also lucky to still have a ton of voting precincts available due to how PA has historically been a vote in person kind of state for the majority of us. I'm cautiously optimistic about Tuesday, with the usual caveat that this is my personal (white, middle class) gut feeling more than the data itself. My very informal survey of lawn signs in my neighborhood while out for runs skews heavily Biden (southeastern Montgomery County, for those interested).
Maybe bad things do happen in Philadelphia sometimes, but there are a lot of righteously pissed off people here, and I'm hoping they do the right thing with the proper motivation of *gestures everywhere*.
I think its based on ease. My whole family has voted in Florida because you can vote two weeks early up until election day. My parents are democrats who are super disturbed by how shitty Trump is, but not overly vocal about it.
{Twitter, Everybody's doing it. }{Writing and Story Blog}
{Twitter, Everybody's doing it. }{Writing and Story Blog}
Pennsylvania is tightening, but we have like six plausible paths to 270 right now. It's not in the bag, but we're heavily favored, and we just need to keep doing what we're doing for three more days.
(And then keep doing a fuckton more, because our shit be broken, but first things first.)
Except the PA poll.
It's kinda like assigning a letter grade to someone's test based on the fact that they took notes in class and studied for a couple hours. I mean, yeah, they did everything a good student would do, but maybe they're also really fucking stupid, who knows?
I think there is no actual evidence for Pennsylvania tightening in a meaningful sense.
I am so very ready to have this over with. I've been waiting forever it feels like.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Well, I can tell you of something that definitely tightened when I saw those numbers...