Sometimes it feels like news about the economy doesn't _want_ me to take it seriously. I have no idea what this next quote actually means, but I feel like they should have chosen better terminology even so:
Friday also marked quadruple witching day, which is the simultaneous expiration of single-stock options, single-stock futures, stock-index options and stock-index futures.
Sometimes it feels like news about the economy doesn't _want_ me to take it seriously. I have no idea what this next quote actually means, but I feel like they should have chosen better terminology even so:
Friday also marked quadruple witching day, which is the simultaneous expiration of single-stock options, single-stock futures, stock-index options and stock-index futures.
Why would insane amounts of money make people less superstitious?
The terminology is meant to be confusing, obtuse, contradictory, and arcane.
That way you’ll look at it, get a headache, and just go away and leave them the fuck alone to make more money than anyone in the history of ever without oversight.
Sometimes it feels like news about the economy doesn't _want_ me to take it seriously. I have no idea what this next quote actually means, but I feel like they should have chosen better terminology even so:
Friday also marked quadruple witching day, which is the simultaneous expiration of single-stock options, single-stock futures, stock-index options and stock-index futures.
This was really intriguing so I did some digging and if I had to guess I think it's a combination of the witching hour referring to any period of bad luck, which options and futures calling due makes likely, and also that the OG witching hour as defined by the Catholic church was 3 to 4 AM and now it refers to 3 to 4 PM when some markets close and stuff.
While racing light mechs, your Urbanmech comes in second place, but only because it ran out of ammo.
The terminology is meant to be confusing, obtuse, contradictory, and arcane.
That way you’ll look at it, get a headache, and just go away and leave them the fuck alone to make more money than anyone in the history of ever without oversight.
It’s not “meant” to be anything. It’s just how language evolves in communities.
You sell something and have the right to buy it back for the selling price plus interest within some time period.
A reverse repo follows naturally. You buy something and have the right to sell it back within some time period.
These are bad only so much as they with the fed and indicate that people think parking money with the fed is better than putting it out in the open market
The amount of “dead cash” has been an issue for a while, with a lot of companies having huge cash reserves that have effectively nothing done with them.
You sell something and have the right to buy it back for the selling price plus interest within some time period.
A reverse repo follows naturally. You buy something and have the right to sell it back within some time period.
These are bad only so much as they with the fed and indicate that people think parking money with the fed is better than putting it out in the open market
The amount of “dead cash” has been an issue for a while, with a lot of companies having huge cash reserves that have effectively nothing done with them.
Remember last year when the overnight Repo market was so fucked banks wouldn't lend money to eachother without a ridiculous interest rate because they didn't trust that the other party's securities weren't garbage and the Fed had to step in with hundreds of billions of dollars of loans? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Sometimes it feels like news about the economy doesn't _want_ me to take it seriously. I have no idea what this next quote actually means, but I feel like they should have chosen better terminology even so:
Friday also marked quadruple witching day, which is the simultaneous expiration of single-stock options, single-stock futures, stock-index options and stock-index futures.
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MonwynApathy's a tragedy, and boredom is a crime.A little bit of everything, all of the time.Registered Userregular
And all we had to do was create a technology never before seen in the world thats constantly pushing up against Planks, at a reliable 2 year cadence under one of the most notoriously abusive and inneffective corporate structures out there.
It couldn't be simpler!
Someday someone is going to write the story of intel 10nm and it is going to be very exciting.
Honestly, its not. We failed for reasons that are totally mundane and expected under certain corporate structures.
If i were to boil it down though, the biggest technical reasons were that Intel tried to do a generation and a half leap, at a time when each leap was getting harder, and they too long to commit to a next generation lithography technology. Culture wise, innovation was dead in TD, with a focus instead on pure grinding and hours put in, which couldn't compete with TSMCs 24 hour engineer support and test wafer scale.
I'm honestly kind of amazed at how much of an impact them saying they're probably going to raise rates at some point next year due to conditions, rather than the year following, has had. Like, it's still June. They aren't talking about next quarter here.
Its good that they're raising the rates. The extremely low rates have increased demand so much that it's a big part of why housing prices are skyrocketing
Its good that they're raising the rates. The extremely low rates have increased demand so much that it's a big part of why housing prices are skyrocketing
But they aren't, though. They are giving forward guidance that they expect to probably raise rates in 2022 instead of their previous expectation of maybe raising rates in 2023.
It's only just the second half of 2021 literally today.
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ButtersA glass of some milksRegistered Userregular
Housing prices are skyrocketing primarily because of record low supply. Building was already lagging demand for most of the last decade and thanks to the pandemic you're lucky to even get a deck built let alone a house.
Housing prices are skyrocketing primarily because of record low supply. Building was already lagging demand for most of the last decade and thanks to the pandemic you're lucky to even get a deck built let alone a house.
Yep, that plus a large number of prospective homebuyers as Millenials enter prime earning territory and boomers not giving up their homes.
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ButtersA glass of some milksRegistered Userregular
Expect more bad crypto news this week as China's crackdown on mining ops is getting intense.
In the past, highly mobile crypto miners have taken advantage of near free hydroelectric power during the rainy season of the Sichuan province but regulators are enforcing the clampdown without exception.
Its good that they're raising the rates. The extremely low rates have increased demand so much that it's a big part of why housing prices are skyrocketing
But they aren't, though. They are giving forward guidance that they expect to probably raise rates in 2022 instead of their previous expectation of maybe raising rates in 2023.
It's only just the second half of 2021 literally today.
The article I read mentioned that the Fed buys $40 billion worth of Mortgage securities a month. I'm not sure what that means, what does the Fed do with them?
Housing prices are skyrocketing primarily because of record low supply. Building was already lagging demand for most of the last decade and thanks to the pandemic you're lucky to even get a deck built let alone a house.
I mean it's a "yes, and" situation
Yes supply is super low and we haven't built enough at all over the last decade plus to meet demand, AND current fed actions are keeping mortgage rates super low compared to normal which further increases demand as a larger number of people can afford to switch from renting to buying.
Housing prices are skyrocketing primarily because of record low supply. Building was already lagging demand for most of the last decade and thanks to the pandemic you're lucky to even get a deck built let alone a house.
I mean it's a "yes, and" situation
Yes supply is super low and we haven't built enough at all over the last decade plus to meet demand, AND current fed actions are keeping mortgage rates super low compared to normal which further increases demand as a larger number of people can afford to switch from renting to buying.
But even with the low interest rates banks are being super picky on who the lend to, not a lot of risk taking so you are also seeing those buying mostly being the upper side pushing up prices more. First time buyers are also getting squeezed.
And in some markets you get a another issue where certain groups are paying cash to current home buyers to let them to pay cash for their new place increasing prices in markets as well.
The whole market is just going up because a mess across the board for numerous reasons.
Oh also labor and material issues from the pandemic and screwed supply chains as well.
In terms of cost, down payments and the general lack of savings for milennials plays a much higher role. Maybe the rates would make a difference, if it got that far, but most don't even make it to that barrier to be a disqualifying variable for home ownership
Low interest rates mean higher sticker prices are more affordable because nobody really cares about the price of the home near as much as the monthly cost of the home. If you can reasonably swing ~$1,400/mo then you can afford a ~$350k house now when, a few years back, it would have only been up to ~$275k tops. With nothing else changing.
Also this is from 2019. But playing with Fed Survey data.
Financial Assets by Age Group per thousand. This is the median, not the mean so it should help correct outliers. And oof it ain't pretty.
Not really enough for a down payment in most markets especially as banks are still very wary of higher risk loans at the moment.
Also total assets by age, so including car/house/financial assets there is an expected gap but you do see an increase at least before the pandemic in the 35-44 aka elder millenials/young X in this category pre-pandemic which is probably tied to some acquiring of houses before shit hit the fan.
I will say they probably should have a 25-34 category instead of just under 25 for these. But its the Fed so they don't.
Housing prices are skyrocketing primarily because of record low supply. Building was already lagging demand for most of the last decade and thanks to the pandemic you're lucky to even get a deck built let alone a house.
Yep, that plus a large number of prospective homebuyers as Millenials enter prime earning territory and boomers not giving up their homes.
As long as the growth in demand outstrips the growth in supply, there is no reason for anyone to give up their homes, because it will just cost more to move into somewhere else.
Rate becomes a really big impact with rapidly rising prices, and rising rates will slow demand…there’s a really big supply gap though so this interplay won’t be as responsive as it normally is historically- sellers might just need to pick the best of 3 bids over asking at higher rates rather than the best of 20
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ButtersA glass of some milksRegistered Userregular
Housing prices are skyrocketing primarily because of record low supply. Building was already lagging demand for most of the last decade and thanks to the pandemic you're lucky to even get a deck built let alone a house.
I mean it's a "yes, and" situation
Yes supply is super low and we haven't built enough at all over the last decade plus to meet demand, AND current fed actions are keeping mortgage rates super low compared to normal which further increases demand as a larger number of people can afford to switch from renting to buying.
That switch from renting to buying requires a shitload of liquid assets as a down payment many people who should be ready for the switch can't muster. Even when banks were less stingy 3-4 years ago, most lenders required 20% down to avoid mortgage insurance which tacks on like $400-500 to your monthly payment. That's an option that only available to an usual combination of high-income yet low savings earner.
Maybe interest rates are too friendly to AirBnB investors but I don't see how fed actions help the millenials that can't afford down payments. We need more supply to make home owning a reality for them.
Also this is from 2019. But playing with Fed Survey data.
Financial Assets by Age Group per thousand. This is the median, not the mean so it should help correct outliers. And oof it ain't pretty.
Not really enough for a down payment in most markets especially as banks are still very wary of higher risk loans at the moment.
Also total assets by age, so including car/house/financial assets there is an expected gap but you do see an increase at least before the pandemic in the 35-44 aka elder millenials/young X in this category pre-pandemic which is probably tied to some acquiring of houses before shit hit the fan.
I will say they probably should have a 25-34 category instead of just under 25 for these. But its the Fed so they don't.
I also really wish age cohort breakdowns went by birth year rather than age bracket. Since that's 2019 data my savings will go from the blue line in that chart to the green line in the next update to it.
Also this is from 2019. But playing with Fed Survey data.
Financial Assets by Age Group per thousand. This is the median, not the mean so it should help correct outliers. And oof it ain't pretty.
Not really enough for a down payment in most markets especially as banks are still very wary of higher risk loans at the moment.
Also total assets by age, so including car/house/financial assets there is an expected gap but you do see an increase at least before the pandemic in the 35-44 aka elder millenials/young X in this category pre-pandemic which is probably tied to some acquiring of houses before shit hit the fan.
I will say they probably should have a 25-34 category instead of just under 25 for these. But its the Fed so they don't.
These charts always terrify me because pensions, 401k, and IRAs are part of Financial Assets. The median 65 year old has less than 55k in retirement savings. Like holy shit is that a disaster in the making.
You need to save up about $1million in retirement savings to have a pleasant retirement. That's hilariously unlikely for anyone below the top 10% of earners.
Also this is from 2019. But playing with Fed Survey data.
Financial Assets by Age Group per thousand. This is the median, not the mean so it should help correct outliers. And oof it ain't pretty.
Not really enough for a down payment in most markets especially as banks are still very wary of higher risk loans at the moment.
Also total assets by age, so including car/house/financial assets there is an expected gap but you do see an increase at least before the pandemic in the 35-44 aka elder millenials/young X in this category pre-pandemic which is probably tied to some acquiring of houses before shit hit the fan.
I will say they probably should have a 25-34 category instead of just under 25 for these. But its the Fed so they don't.
These charts always terrify me because pensions, 401k, and IRAs are part of Financial Assets. The median 65 year old has less than 55k in retirement savings. Like holy shit is that a disaster in the making.
Pretty much there's a bunch of changes that need to happen and everyone in my age cohort and now the one below it at this point, are going to just have to take the hits all our parents were too shitty to handle.
Like maybe my one year old can have retirement as a concept if we do a lot of work to unfuck everything by the time they're coming up in this world.
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Somewhat of an explanation:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-sees-record-756-billion-demand-for-reverse-repo-program-expect-it-to-hit-1-trillion-say-rates-strategists-11623961989
The scary graph:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD
They indicate that banks don't have better places to park excess capital than with the Fed, lack of opportunity for investments
Means they think the risk/reward of everything else isnt worth it, is my understanding
Why would insane amounts of money make people less superstitious?
That way you’ll look at it, get a headache, and just go away and leave them the fuck alone to make more money than anyone in the history of ever without oversight.
This was really intriguing so I did some digging and if I had to guess I think it's a combination of the witching hour referring to any period of bad luck, which options and futures calling due makes likely, and also that the OG witching hour as defined by the Catholic church was 3 to 4 AM and now it refers to 3 to 4 PM when some markets close and stuff.
A Repo is like a pawn shop.
You sell something and have the right to buy it back for the selling price plus interest within some time period.
A reverse repo follows naturally. You buy something and have the right to sell it back within some time period.
These are bad only so much as they with the fed and indicate that people think parking money with the fed is better than putting it out in the open market
The amount of “dead cash” has been an issue for a while, with a lot of companies having huge cash reserves that have effectively nothing done with them.
Neither are most drugs, it's the amount they are currently being used/abused that are worrying.
Remember last year when the overnight Repo market was so fucked banks wouldn't lend money to eachother without a ridiculous interest rate because they didn't trust that the other party's securities weren't garbage and the Fed had to step in with hundreds of billions of dollars of loans? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
I don't understand what reverse repos are but I do know that a graph going vertical is, as a general rule, never a good thing for very long
Honestly, its not. We failed for reasons that are totally mundane and expected under certain corporate structures.
If i were to boil it down though, the biggest technical reasons were that Intel tried to do a generation and a half leap, at a time when each leap was getting harder, and they too long to commit to a next generation lithography technology. Culture wise, innovation was dead in TD, with a focus instead on pure grinding and hours put in, which couldn't compete with TSMCs 24 hour engineer support and test wafer scale.
But they aren't, though. They are giving forward guidance that they expect to probably raise rates in 2022 instead of their previous expectation of maybe raising rates in 2023.
It's only just the second half of 2021 literally today.
Yep, that plus a large number of prospective homebuyers as Millenials enter prime earning territory and boomers not giving up their homes.
https://gizmodo.com/bitcoin-plunges-as-chinas-sichuan-province-pulls-plug-o-1847139438
In the past, highly mobile crypto miners have taken advantage of near free hydroelectric power during the rainy season of the Sichuan province but regulators are enforcing the clampdown without exception.
The article I read mentioned that the Fed buys $40 billion worth of Mortgage securities a month. I'm not sure what that means, what does the Fed do with them?
Fuck no definitely not just you crypto as it is implemented now is a complete ecological and incoming financial disaster
I mean it's a "yes, and" situation
Yes supply is super low and we haven't built enough at all over the last decade plus to meet demand, AND current fed actions are keeping mortgage rates super low compared to normal which further increases demand as a larger number of people can afford to switch from renting to buying.
But even with the low interest rates banks are being super picky on who the lend to, not a lot of risk taking so you are also seeing those buying mostly being the upper side pushing up prices more. First time buyers are also getting squeezed.
And in some markets you get a another issue where certain groups are paying cash to current home buyers to let them to pay cash for their new place increasing prices in markets as well.
The whole market is just going up because a mess across the board for numerous reasons.
Oh also labor and material issues from the pandemic and screwed supply chains as well.
Financial Assets by Age Group per thousand. This is the median, not the mean so it should help correct outliers. And oof it ain't pretty.
Not really enough for a down payment in most markets especially as banks are still very wary of higher risk loans at the moment.
Also total assets by age, so including car/house/financial assets there is an expected gap but you do see an increase at least before the pandemic in the 35-44 aka elder millenials/young X in this category pre-pandemic which is probably tied to some acquiring of houses before shit hit the fan.
I will say they probably should have a 25-34 category instead of just under 25 for these. But its the Fed so they don't.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scfindex.htm
Survey source data added.
As long as the growth in demand outstrips the growth in supply, there is no reason for anyone to give up their homes, because it will just cost more to move into somewhere else.
MWO: Adamski
That switch from renting to buying requires a shitload of liquid assets as a down payment many people who should be ready for the switch can't muster. Even when banks were less stingy 3-4 years ago, most lenders required 20% down to avoid mortgage insurance which tacks on like $400-500 to your monthly payment. That's an option that only available to an usual combination of high-income yet low savings earner.
Maybe interest rates are too friendly to AirBnB investors but I don't see how fed actions help the millenials that can't afford down payments. We need more supply to make home owning a reality for them.
Also, fuck NIMBYism
I also really wish age cohort breakdowns went by birth year rather than age bracket. Since that's 2019 data my savings will go from the blue line in that chart to the green line in the next update to it.
These charts always terrify me because pensions, 401k, and IRAs are part of Financial Assets. The median 65 year old has less than 55k in retirement savings. Like holy shit is that a disaster in the making.
Useful chart of what is included under what categories.
Yup. Welcome to where Gen X, Millennials, and any generation after that is, "Expected to work until Death."
Unless you already are a 1%er.
Boomers voted in the idiots who fucked our Millenials and Zoomers. But those same folks fucked them and X hard.
Basically its a we float down here situation. No one is coming out of this with out being screwed except the top 1%.
Like maybe my one year old can have retirement as a concept if we do a lot of work to unfuck everything by the time they're coming up in this world.