In a new Ipsos poll, 54% of Republican respondents say the January 6 riot was "led by violent left-wing protesters trying to make Trump look bad."
Only 30% disagreed. 16% said they didn't know.
ONLY 54% of Republicans?
Topline Findings
Washington, DC, May 21, 2021 - Former President Donald Trump’s stronghold over the Republican
party remains. His refusal to concede the 2020 election and calls of widespread fraud have raised doubts
about the integrity of its results among his Republican base. Consequently, 56% of Republicans believe
the election was rigged or the result of illegal voting, and 53% think Donald Trump is the actual President,
not Joe Biden.
That's worse than I thought. And I thought I was a pessimist. Like that is "unsustainable for peaceful society" bad.
I looked at the chart, and I think part of the reason why is because the R market share is shrinking drastically.
On whole, only 35% identified directly as R, compared to 41% D.
It's also a tiny sample size of only about a thousand respondents per political affiliation. It's nothing you can really extrapolate from.
1,000 is a perfectly decent sample size, if it's a good poll. That's a 3-4% margin of error. Definitely large enough that we should be proper concerned about the results.
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
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Munkus BeaverYou don't have to attend every argument you are invited to.Philosophy: Stoicism. Politics: Democratic SocialistRegistered User, ClubPAregular
In a new Ipsos poll, 54% of Republican respondents say the January 6 riot was "led by violent left-wing protesters trying to make Trump look bad."
Only 30% disagreed. 16% said they didn't know.
ONLY 54% of Republicans?
Topline Findings
Washington, DC, May 21, 2021 - Former President Donald Trump’s stronghold over the Republican
party remains. His refusal to concede the 2020 election and calls of widespread fraud have raised doubts
about the integrity of its results among his Republican base. Consequently, 56% of Republicans believe
the election was rigged or the result of illegal voting, and 53% think Donald Trump is the actual President,
not Joe Biden.
That's worse than I thought. And I thought I was a pessimist. Like that is "unsustainable for peaceful society" bad.
I looked at the chart, and I think part of the reason why is because the R market share is shrinking drastically.
On whole, only 35% identified directly as R, compared to 41% D.
It's also a tiny sample size of only about a thousand respondents per political affiliation. It's nothing you can really extrapolate from.
1,000 is a perfectly decent sample size, if it's a good poll. That's a 3-4% margin of error. Definitely large enough that we should be proper concerned about the results.
The past couple of years have made me wary of that sample size for a number of reasons.
Humor can be dissected as a frog can, but dies in the process.
In a new Ipsos poll, 54% of Republican respondents say the January 6 riot was "led by violent left-wing protesters trying to make Trump look bad."
Only 30% disagreed. 16% said they didn't know.
ONLY 54% of Republicans?
Topline Findings
Washington, DC, May 21, 2021 - Former President Donald Trump’s stronghold over the Republican
party remains. His refusal to concede the 2020 election and calls of widespread fraud have raised doubts
about the integrity of its results among his Republican base. Consequently, 56% of Republicans believe
the election was rigged or the result of illegal voting, and 53% think Donald Trump is the actual President,
not Joe Biden.
That's worse than I thought. And I thought I was a pessimist. Like that is "unsustainable for peaceful society" bad.
I looked at the chart, and I think part of the reason why is because the R market share is shrinking drastically.
On whole, only 35% identified directly as R, compared to 41% D.
It's also a tiny sample size of only about a thousand respondents per political affiliation. It's nothing you can really extrapolate from.
1,000 is a perfectly decent sample size, if it's a good poll. That's a 3-4% margin of error. Definitely large enough that we should be proper concerned about the results.
The past couple of years have made me wary of that sample size for a number of reasons.
The problems we may be seeing with polling are not ones that can be fixed by a larger sample.
I mean, there's actually very few problems with polling that can be fixed by a larger sample size once you hit a mathematically relevant sample size.
In a new Ipsos poll, 54% of Republican respondents say the January 6 riot was "led by violent left-wing protesters trying to make Trump look bad."
Only 30% disagreed. 16% said they didn't know.
ONLY 54% of Republicans?
Topline Findings
Washington, DC, May 21, 2021 - Former President Donald Trump’s stronghold over the Republican
party remains. His refusal to concede the 2020 election and calls of widespread fraud have raised doubts
about the integrity of its results among his Republican base. Consequently, 56% of Republicans believe
the election was rigged or the result of illegal voting, and 53% think Donald Trump is the actual President,
not Joe Biden.
That's worse than I thought. And I thought I was a pessimist. Like that is "unsustainable for peaceful society" bad.
I looked at the chart, and I think part of the reason why is because the R market share is shrinking drastically.
On whole, only 35% identified directly as R, compared to 41% D.
It's also a tiny sample size of only about a thousand respondents per political affiliation. It's nothing you can really extrapolate from.
1,000 is a perfectly decent sample size, if it's a good poll. That's a 3-4% margin of error. Definitely large enough that we should be proper concerned about the results.
The past couple of years have made me wary of that sample size for a number of reasons.
The problems we may be seeing with polling are not ones that can be fixed by a larger sample.
I mean, there's actually very few problems with polling that can be fixed by a larger sample size once you hit a mathematically relevant sample size.
Right.
Saying 48-57% of Republicans or 51-54% or whatever are completely off their rocker is forest for the trees. Narrow the error bars to tell is just how nuts they are.
Doesn't solve a whole fuckload of them being nuts.
Like crazification factor is a thing, just like misclicks and 'didnt understand' are part of building and analyzing survey data.
But no poll will solve the problem America is very fucked up because a good chunk of is are fucked up. Crosstabs dont even clarify who or where are nuts.
In a new Ipsos poll, 54% of Republican respondents say the January 6 riot was "led by violent left-wing protesters trying to make Trump look bad."
Only 30% disagreed. 16% said they didn't know.
ONLY 54% of Republicans?
Topline Findings
Washington, DC, May 21, 2021 - Former President Donald Trump’s stronghold over the Republican
party remains. His refusal to concede the 2020 election and calls of widespread fraud have raised doubts
about the integrity of its results among his Republican base. Consequently, 56% of Republicans believe
the election was rigged or the result of illegal voting, and 53% think Donald Trump is the actual President,
not Joe Biden.
That's worse than I thought. And I thought I was a pessimist. Like that is "unsustainable for peaceful society" bad.
I looked at the chart, and I think part of the reason why is because the R market share is shrinking drastically.
On whole, only 35% identified directly as R, compared to 41% D.
It's also a tiny sample size of only about a thousand respondents per political affiliation. It's nothing you can really extrapolate from.
1,000 is a perfectly decent sample size, if it's a good poll. That's a 3-4% margin of error. Definitely large enough that we should be proper concerned about the results.
The past couple of years have made me wary of that sample size for a number of reasons.
The problems we may be seeing with polling are not ones that can be fixed by a larger sample.
I mean, there's actually very few problems with polling that can be fixed by a larger sample size once you hit a mathematically relevant sample size.
Yup. As I noted on the last page, the problem (well, one of them) is that number is from the extremely self-selected group that are (still) willing to talk to pollsters and identify as members of the Trump, I mean Republican Party.
I can't wrap my head around so many people believing hundreds of leftists flew to Washington DC and commited crimes on camera so they could spend the next few decades in prison to make Trump look bad
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Munkus BeaverYou don't have to attend every argument you are invited to.Philosophy: Stoicism. Politics: Democratic SocialistRegistered User, ClubPAregular
In a new Ipsos poll, 54% of Republican respondents say the January 6 riot was "led by violent left-wing protesters trying to make Trump look bad."
Only 30% disagreed. 16% said they didn't know.
ONLY 54% of Republicans?
Topline Findings
Washington, DC, May 21, 2021 - Former President Donald Trump’s stronghold over the Republican
party remains. His refusal to concede the 2020 election and calls of widespread fraud have raised doubts
about the integrity of its results among his Republican base. Consequently, 56% of Republicans believe
the election was rigged or the result of illegal voting, and 53% think Donald Trump is the actual President,
not Joe Biden.
That's worse than I thought. And I thought I was a pessimist. Like that is "unsustainable for peaceful society" bad.
I looked at the chart, and I think part of the reason why is because the R market share is shrinking drastically.
On whole, only 35% identified directly as R, compared to 41% D.
It's also a tiny sample size of only about a thousand respondents per political affiliation. It's nothing you can really extrapolate from.
1,000 is a perfectly decent sample size, if it's a good poll. That's a 3-4% margin of error. Definitely large enough that we should be proper concerned about the results.
The past couple of years have made me wary of that sample size for a number of reasons.
The problems we may be seeing with polling are not ones that can be fixed by a larger sample.
I mean, there's actually very few problems with polling that can be fixed by a larger sample size once you hit a mathematically relevant sample size.
Fair enough.
Humor can be dissected as a frog can, but dies in the process.
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
I can't wrap my head around so many people believing hundreds of leftists flew to Washington DC and commited crimes on camera so they could spend the next few decades in prison to make Trump look bad
The alternative is they would have to consider, even for a moment, that they might be wrong.
I can't wrap my head around so many people believing hundreds of leftists flew to Washington DC and commited crimes on camera so they could spend the next few decades in prison to make Trump look bad
they don't believe that
they just automatically blame anyone but themselves
I also want to know whether the people claiming to believe these obviously untrue things are doing it because they're gullible, dishonest, mentally ill, misinformed and uncurious, or some other range of possible explanations.
I don't know how to poll for that. I imagine there are a range of explanations in this population.
I also want to know whether the people claiming to believe these obviously untrue things are doing it because they're gullible, dishonest, mentally ill, misinformed and uncurious, or some other range of possible explanations.
I don't know how to poll for that. I imagine there are a range of explanations in this population.
There isn’t a way to poll for that as far as I know.
Looking at the questions, they're not necessarily contradictory positions, because one is about the people who lead the riot, and the other is about the majority of the people gathered at the Capitol.
I wouldn't be surprised if upwards of 25% of Republicans believed that the violence was only a small group lead by left-wing provoceteurs, while most of the big crowd were just peacefully protesting. They're clearly and undeniably wrong about both of those things, but it can fit inside a single narrative.
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zepherinRussian warship, go fuck yourselfRegistered Userregular
I can't wrap my head around so many people believing hundreds of leftists flew to Washington DC and commited crimes on camera so they could spend the next few decades in prison to make Trump look bad
The alternative is they would have to consider, even for a moment, that they might be wrong.
There are the crazies that think it’s all a conspiracy, but on the far right forums. The stance seams to be it was a protest that was less violent than what Antifa/BLM have done and there were some Left wing antagonizers who made things worst, but it was just some peaceful protesting and petty vandalism and the use of force was primarily from the capital police.
This is not my stance, just what the more “sane” far right think.
They really believe it all because they are fed a steady diet of propoganda nuttery by Facebook and Fox News. Of course there are varying factors that affect how receptive they are, but that's the common link, I think.
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RingoHe/Hima distinct lack of substanceRegistered Userregular
They really believe it all because they are fed a steady diet of propoganda nuttery by Facebook and Fox News. Of course there are varying factors that affect how receptive they are, but that's the common link, I think.
Eh, no concept of empathy or critical thinking would be the underlying problems, Facebook and Foxnews just prey on that. Take away the media and the first two still produce modern conservatives
They really believe it all because they are fed a steady diet of propoganda nuttery by Facebook and Fox News. Of course there are varying factors that affect how receptive they are, but that's the common link, I think.
Eh, no concept of empathy or critical thinking would be the underlying problems, Facebook and Foxnews just prey on that. Take away the media and the first two still produce modern conservatives
Most people don't start out lacking empathy or critical thinking skills. Constant exposure to 'if it bleeds it leads' combined with the Just World Fallacy' will kill the first, and constant vigilance with a certain level of tame paranoia is necessary to maintain the second.
Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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ButtersA glass of some milksRegistered Userregular
They really believe it all because they are fed a steady diet of propoganda nuttery by Facebook and Fox News. Of course there are varying factors that affect how receptive they are, but that's the common link, I think.
Some believe it but other just want the talking points to reinforce their world view. The "3 million illegals voted in 2016" concept never included any audits but it was enough for conservatives to not care that Trump lost the popular vote. This is a deeply cynical movement that discards democratic rule whenever it doesn't serve their desires.
They really believe it all because they are fed a steady diet of propoganda nuttery by Facebook and Fox News. Of course there are varying factors that affect how receptive they are, but that's the common link, I think.
Some believe it but other just want the talking points to reinforce their world view. The "3 million illegals voted in 2016" concept never included any audits but it was enough for conservatives to not care that Trump lost the popular vote. This is a deeply cynical movement that discards democratic rule whenever it doesn't serve their desires.
I think it' smore subtle than that, and part of the challenge lies in the difference.
It's not that they discard democratic rule through cynicism. It's that they don't currently understand themselves to be in the minority, especially nationally. It's not "we lost so fuck the vote", it's "there are more of us, so they're breaking the system to get a win". The 'Greater Idaho' movement people are what this looks like when you can no longer maintain the fiction of being a majority. They hate losing, feel marginalized, so they want to swap for a more favorable government.
These people believe they are the preservers of democracy, and the fact that it's starting to look less like them every day is taken as proof of corruption in the system, rather than proof they are not the national majority.
They really believe it all because they are fed a steady diet of propoganda nuttery by Facebook and Fox News. Of course there are varying factors that affect how receptive they are, but that's the common link, I think.
Some believe it but other just want the talking points to reinforce their world view. The "3 million illegals voted in 2016" concept never included any audits but it was enough for conservatives to not care that Trump lost the popular vote. This is a deeply cynical movement that discards democratic rule whenever it doesn't serve their desires.
I think it' smore subtle than that, and part of the challenge lies in the difference.
It's not that they discard democratic rule through cynicism. It's that they don't currently understand themselves to be in the minority, especially nationally. It's not "we lost so fuck the vote", it's "there are more of us, so they're breaking the system to get a win". The 'Greater Idaho' movement people are what this looks like when you can no longer maintain the fiction of being a majority. They hate losing, feel marginalized, so they want to swap for a more favorable government.
These people believe they are the preservers of democracy, and the fact that it's starting to look less like them every day is taken as proof of corruption in the system, rather than proof they are not the national majority.
Are you sure that isn't just the OreIda marketing team getting pranked?
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AtomikaLive fast and get fucked or whateverRegistered Userregular
we all heard CNN finally fired Rick Santorum, yes?
A move that was about 12 years late, but hey
I guess it’s getting pretty hard these days to be a Republican and have the ability to talk about your party on-camera without being an open bigot
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ShadowfireVermont, in the middle of nowhereRegistered Userregular
Not hard enough though.
And will never be totally gone as long as Fox/OAN are still a thing.
They really believe it all because they are fed a steady diet of propoganda nuttery by Facebook and Fox News. Of course there are varying factors that affect how receptive they are, but that's the common link, I think.
Some believe it but other just want the talking points to reinforce their world view. The "3 million illegals voted in 2016" concept never included any audits but it was enough for conservatives to not care that Trump lost the popular vote. This is a deeply cynical movement that discards democratic rule whenever it doesn't serve their desires.
I think it' smore subtle than that, and part of the challenge lies in the difference.
It's not that they discard democratic rule through cynicism. It's that they don't currently understand themselves to be in the minority, especially nationally. It's not "we lost so fuck the vote", it's "there are more of us, so they're breaking the system to get a win". The 'Greater Idaho' movement people are what this looks like when you can no longer maintain the fiction of being a majority. They hate losing, feel marginalized, so they want to swap for a more favorable government.
These people believe they are the preservers of democracy, and the fact that it's starting to look less like them every day is taken as proof of corruption in the system, rather than proof they are not the national majority.
Are you sure that isn't just the OreIda marketing team getting pranked?
These are the same sort who wanted to create the state of Jefferson out of southern Oregon and northern California. And their choice of emblem there - the "double cross" - shows what they're looking for.
The Jan 6th rioters believed themselves to be morally justified in their actions. There's a whole lotta crap underlying their behavior, privalege for one, but fundamentally they believe the lie becuse they have a self contained yet far reaching media apparatus telling them that.
To put it another way, stop looking at the movement as motivated by rational evil. These people have been radicalized and need to be treated as such.
Nobeard on
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No-QuarterNothing To FearBut Fear ItselfRegistered Userregular
I'm not sure how things can be fixed as long as Fox continues to poison minds.
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zepherinRussian warship, go fuck yourselfRegistered Userregular
I think that many of these folks don't believe they are going to be found guilty. I imagine after the first person gets convicted and has serious weight, is going to be a point of reckoning. And there will be a bunch of plea deals after. Because a lot of these folks have been dodging consequences for shitty behavior for a while.
They really believe it all because they are fed a steady diet of propoganda nuttery by Facebook and Fox News. Of course there are varying factors that affect how receptive they are, but that's the common link, I think.
Some believe it but other just want the talking points to reinforce their world view. The "3 million illegals voted in 2016" concept never included any audits but it was enough for conservatives to not care that Trump lost the popular vote. This is a deeply cynical movement that discards democratic rule whenever it doesn't serve their desires.
I think it' smore subtle than that, and part of the challenge lies in the difference.
It's not that they discard democratic rule through cynicism. It's that they don't currently understand themselves to be in the minority, especially nationally. It's not "we lost so fuck the vote", it's "there are more of us, so they're breaking the system to get a win". The 'Greater Idaho' movement people are what this looks like when you can no longer maintain the fiction of being a majority. They hate losing, feel marginalized, so they want to swap for a more favorable government.
These people believe they are the preservers of democracy, and the fact that it's starting to look less like them every day is taken as proof of corruption in the system, rather than proof they are not the national majority.
Are you sure that isn't just the OreIda marketing team getting pranked?
These are the same sort who wanted to create the state of Jefferson out of southern Oregon and northern California. And their choice of emblem there - the "double cross" - shows what they're looking for.
Jefferson is so ridiculously absurd-
Yeah we got this state that is huge, whats the best way to split it up? Oh we’ll just split off a part of it with 1/20th of the population and join it to a relatively unpopulated chunk of another state.
Like if you were serious about splitting up california the territory representing Jefferson would probably be the 7th or 8th state you would carve out at best.
Edit: California division proposals seem to be like this in general. Its never “lets just divide Norcal from Socal along one of several obvious geographical or political boundries”. Its always “Lets divide California into 6 states. One state can be the Los Angeles metro area with 15 million people, one can be the Bay Area with 8 million people, then we will divide the remaining 16 million people into 4 new states of 1-5 million people each divided arbitrarily into areas that happen to be majority Republican.
They really believe it all because they are fed a steady diet of propoganda nuttery by Facebook and Fox News. Of course there are varying factors that affect how receptive they are, but that's the common link, I think.
Some believe it but other just want the talking points to reinforce their world view. The "3 million illegals voted in 2016" concept never included any audits but it was enough for conservatives to not care that Trump lost the popular vote. This is a deeply cynical movement that discards democratic rule whenever it doesn't serve their desires.
whenever someone would bring this up I would respond about what a coincidence 3 million is how much trump lost the popular vote and do they think I'm an idiot?
I'm not sure how things can be fixed as long as Fox continues to poison minds.
And Fox will continue to poison minds as long as it's profitable to do so.
It's also self perpetual as it stands. Fox poisons minds, those minds elect corruption assholes, those corrupt assholes spew poison on air, Fox airs that poison, and around and around we go.
Fox needs the politicians to protect them and give them influence, and the politicians need the base that Fox provides and amps up.
They really believe it all because they are fed a steady diet of propoganda nuttery by Facebook and Fox News. Of course there are varying factors that affect how receptive they are, but that's the common link, I think.
Some believe it but other just want the talking points to reinforce their world view. The "3 million illegals voted in 2016" concept never included any audits but it was enough for conservatives to not care that Trump lost the popular vote. This is a deeply cynical movement that discards democratic rule whenever it doesn't serve their desires.
I think it' smore subtle than that, and part of the challenge lies in the difference.
It's not that they discard democratic rule through cynicism. It's that they don't currently understand themselves to be in the minority, especially nationally. It's not "we lost so fuck the vote", it's "there are more of us, so they're breaking the system to get a win". The 'Greater Idaho' movement people are what this looks like when you can no longer maintain the fiction of being a majority. They hate losing, feel marginalized, so they want to swap for a more favorable government.
These people believe they are the preservers of democracy, and the fact that it's starting to look less like them every day is taken as proof of corruption in the system, rather than proof they are not the national majority.
In my observation, I disagree. If they didn't think they were in the minority they and their representatives wouldn't be working to make voting harder across the country. They wouldn't be advocating for a wall and a Muslim ban to prevent the country from getting less white if they didn't know immigration threatens their political power.
Pat Buchanan wrote "The Death of the West" 20 years ago. The inevitability of their decline is not new to them. They see themselves as the preservers of white America not democracy.
It was "five million," actually, implying ol' Donny would have won by two million.
Trump delusions don't allow for him to lose by small margins.
I’ve always heard it as 3, but maybe the 3 million were from California alone.
We do have Trump on tape asking for basically the votes he needs, plus one, when he was trying to strongarm the recount in Georgia though.
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ButtersA glass of some milksRegistered Userregular
I don't mean to pile on you @spool32 but with Tucker straight up labeling immigrants as dirty on air almost every day, Trump advocating the banning of Muslim immigrants in a campaign speech, his advisors pushing terms like "Kung Flu" and "China-virus" on TV, conservative writers advocating for stripping certain people of their birthright citizenship, children in cages, etc it is really hard for me to see any subtlety at play with regard to this movement.
They are over subtlety. They don't want dog whistles anymore and even Gerrymandering isn't enough for them. They want Republicans to just do the things that ensure their permanent rule.
I’ve always heard it as 3, but maybe the 3 million were from California alone.
I seem to recall Trump kept making the number bigger every time he ranted about it publicly.
In my observation, I disagree. If they didn't think they were in the minority they and their representatives wouldn't be working to make voting harder across the country. They wouldn't be advocating for a wall and a Muslim ban to prevent the country from getting less white if they didn't know immigration threatens their political power.
It's both. They think they're the strongest, rightful majority, and also the maligned minority beset on all sides. That's the frustrating duplicity which is a core piece of modern conservativism, and consequently fascism too.
Though I would argue the Jan 6 rioters are special case -suffering from a deadly concoction of being comfortably well off, bored senseless, overly stimulated, and lacking a purpose.
They really believe it all because they are fed a steady diet of propoganda nuttery by Facebook and Fox News. Of course there are varying factors that affect how receptive they are, but that's the common link, I think.
Some believe it but other just want the talking points to reinforce their world view. The "3 million illegals voted in 2016" concept never included any audits but it was enough for conservatives to not care that Trump lost the popular vote. This is a deeply cynical movement that discards democratic rule whenever it doesn't serve their desires.
I think it' smore subtle than that, and part of the challenge lies in the difference.
It's not that they discard democratic rule through cynicism. It's that they don't currently understand themselves to be in the minority, especially nationally. It's not "we lost so fuck the vote", it's "there are more of us, so they're breaking the system to get a win". The 'Greater Idaho' movement people are what this looks like when you can no longer maintain the fiction of being a majority. They hate losing, feel marginalized, so they want to swap for a more favorable government.
These people believe they are the preservers of democracy, and the fact that it's starting to look less like them every day is taken as proof of corruption in the system, rather than proof they are not the national majority.
Are you sure that isn't just the OreIda marketing team getting pranked?
These are the same sort who wanted to create the state of Jefferson out of southern Oregon and northern California. And their choice of emblem there - the "double cross" - shows what they're looking for.
Jefferson is so ridiculously absurd-
Yeah we got this state that is huge, whats the best way to split it up? Oh we’ll just split off a part of it with 1/20th of the population and join it to a relatively unpopulated chunk of another state.
Like if you were serious about splitting up california the territory representing Jefferson would probably be the 7th or 8th state you would carve out at best.
Edit: California division proposals seem to be like this in general. Its never “lets just divide Norcal from Socal along one of several obvious geographical or political boundries”. Its always “Lets divide California into 6 states. One state can be the Los Angeles metro area with 15 million people, one can be the Bay Area with 8 million people, then we will divide the remaining 16 million people into 4 new states of 1-5 million people each divided arbitrarily into areas that happen to be majority Republican.
As someone who used to live in southern Oregon (and yes, I'm glad I got out), there is/was the legit feeling among some that "neither state government gives a fuck about us, so more local representation = good". And some would probably say, "why should they (give a fuck)?", but this is hardly an appealing answer to those who happen or choose to live there.
Note that this also extended to the local SCA, which had as much hippy-dippy types as rednecks (at least back then), so it's not just a normie political thing. People in the region feel ignored by the big cities far, far to north and south and want to group up with their neighbors to get, if not a bigger seat at the table, more stuff done amongst themselves.
I have no idea how this may have been further distilled and radicalized in the ~35 years since I bailed, just providing a (formerly) local perspective.
They really believe it all because they are fed a steady diet of propoganda nuttery by Facebook and Fox News. Of course there are varying factors that affect how receptive they are, but that's the common link, I think.
Some believe it but other just want the talking points to reinforce their world view. The "3 million illegals voted in 2016" concept never included any audits but it was enough for conservatives to not care that Trump lost the popular vote. This is a deeply cynical movement that discards democratic rule whenever it doesn't serve their desires.
I think it' smore subtle than that, and part of the challenge lies in the difference.
It's not that they discard democratic rule through cynicism. It's that they don't currently understand themselves to be in the minority, especially nationally. It's not "we lost so fuck the vote", it's "there are more of us, so they're breaking the system to get a win". The 'Greater Idaho' movement people are what this looks like when you can no longer maintain the fiction of being a majority. They hate losing, feel marginalized, so they want to swap for a more favorable government.
These people believe they are the preservers of democracy, and the fact that it's starting to look less like them every day is taken as proof of corruption in the system, rather than proof they are not the national majority.
Are you sure that isn't just the OreIda marketing team getting pranked?
These are the same sort who wanted to create the state of Jefferson out of southern Oregon and northern California. And their choice of emblem there - the "double cross" - shows what they're looking for.
Jefferson is so ridiculously absurd-
Yeah we got this state that is huge, whats the best way to split it up? Oh we’ll just split off a part of it with 1/20th of the population and join it to a relatively unpopulated chunk of another state.
Like if you were serious about splitting up california the territory representing Jefferson would probably be the 7th or 8th state you would carve out at best.
Edit: California division proposals seem to be like this in general. Its never “lets just divide Norcal from Socal along one of several obvious geographical or political boundries”. Its always “Lets divide California into 6 states. One state can be the Los Angeles metro area with 15 million people, one can be the Bay Area with 8 million people, then we will divide the remaining 16 million people into 4 new states of 1-5 million people each divided arbitrarily into areas that happen to be majority Republican.
As someone who used to live in southern Oregon (and yes, I'm glad I got out), there is/was the legit feeling among some that "neither state government gives a fuck about us, so more local representation = good". And some would probably say, "why should they (give a fuck)?", but this is hardly an appealing answer to those who happen or choose to live there.
Note that this also extended to the local SCA, which had as much hippy-dippy types as rednecks (at least back then), so it's not just a normie political thing. People in the region feel ignored by the big cities far, far to north and south and want to group up with their neighbors to get, if not a bigger seat at the table, more stuff done amongst themselves.
I have no idea how this may have been further distilled and radicalized in the ~35 years since I bailed, just providing a (formerly) local perspective.
Except Republican Governors shit on local control all the time when it goes the way they don't like. Just look at Texas outlawing mask requirements at the county or school district level. It's not actually a consistently held belief and is just a shibboleth for doing whatever they want regardless.
They really believe it all because they are fed a steady diet of propoganda nuttery by Facebook and Fox News. Of course there are varying factors that affect how receptive they are, but that's the common link, I think.
Some believe it but other just want the talking points to reinforce their world view. The "3 million illegals voted in 2016" concept never included any audits but it was enough for conservatives to not care that Trump lost the popular vote. This is a deeply cynical movement that discards democratic rule whenever it doesn't serve their desires.
I think it' smore subtle than that, and part of the challenge lies in the difference.
It's not that they discard democratic rule through cynicism. It's that they don't currently understand themselves to be in the minority, especially nationally. It's not "we lost so fuck the vote", it's "there are more of us, so they're breaking the system to get a win". The 'Greater Idaho' movement people are what this looks like when you can no longer maintain the fiction of being a majority. They hate losing, feel marginalized, so they want to swap for a more favorable government.
These people believe they are the preservers of democracy, and the fact that it's starting to look less like them every day is taken as proof of corruption in the system, rather than proof they are not the national majority.
Are you sure that isn't just the OreIda marketing team getting pranked?
These are the same sort who wanted to create the state of Jefferson out of southern Oregon and northern California. And their choice of emblem there - the "double cross" - shows what they're looking for.
Jefferson is so ridiculously absurd-
Yeah we got this state that is huge, whats the best way to split it up? Oh we’ll just split off a part of it with 1/20th of the population and join it to a relatively unpopulated chunk of another state.
Like if you were serious about splitting up california the territory representing Jefferson would probably be the 7th or 8th state you would carve out at best.
Edit: California division proposals seem to be like this in general. Its never “lets just divide Norcal from Socal along one of several obvious geographical or political boundries”. Its always “Lets divide California into 6 states. One state can be the Los Angeles metro area with 15 million people, one can be the Bay Area with 8 million people, then we will divide the remaining 16 million people into 4 new states of 1-5 million people each divided arbitrarily into areas that happen to be majority Republican.
As someone who used to live in southern Oregon (and yes, I'm glad I got out), there is/was the legit feeling among some that "neither state government gives a fuck about us, so more local representation = good". And some would probably say, "why should they (give a fuck)?", but this is hardly an appealing answer to those who happen or choose to live there.
Note that this also extended to the local SCA, which had as much hippy-dippy types as rednecks (at least back then), so it's not just a normie political thing. People in the region feel ignored by the big cities far, far to north and south and want to group up with their neighbors to get, if not a bigger seat at the table, more stuff done amongst themselves.
I have no idea how this may have been further distilled and radicalized in the ~35 years since I bailed, just providing a (formerly) local perspective.
Someone help me here because I'm just not understanding the problem here.
You move to a low population area for whatever reason and then you get upset that the are isn't that politically important because there's not a whole lot of people to serve there. Just what?
Did they fail their history and civics courses? Was there a big fish, small pond expectation when it should have been any sized fish in the entirety of the ocean reality?
I just don't get it. You're not special. That's the lesson I got from first grade forward when it came to how the US democracy works. You have to work in order to get recognized, let alone played to. How far up your own ass does your head have to be in order to believe otherwise?
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They don't know either.
But 54% of people who self identify as Republicans are either bugfuck crazy, or are cosplaying it.
Which is not good but...um, not sure of the but here. Hopefully are keyboard warriors and not willing to do more than try to talk to the manager?
1,000 is a perfectly decent sample size, if it's a good poll. That's a 3-4% margin of error. Definitely large enough that we should be proper concerned about the results.
The past couple of years have made me wary of that sample size for a number of reasons.
The problems we may be seeing with polling are not ones that can be fixed by a larger sample.
I mean, there's actually very few problems with polling that can be fixed by a larger sample size once you hit a mathematically relevant sample size.
Right.
Saying 48-57% of Republicans or 51-54% or whatever are completely off their rocker is forest for the trees. Narrow the error bars to tell is just how nuts they are.
Doesn't solve a whole fuckload of them being nuts.
Like crazification factor is a thing, just like misclicks and 'didnt understand' are part of building and analyzing survey data.
But no poll will solve the problem America is very fucked up because a good chunk of is are fucked up. Crosstabs dont even clarify who or where are nuts.
Yup. As I noted on the last page, the problem (well, one of them) is that number is from the extremely self-selected group that are (still) willing to talk to pollsters and identify as members of the Trump, I mean Republican Party.
Fair enough.
The alternative is they would have to consider, even for a moment, that they might be wrong.
they don't believe that
they just automatically blame anyone but themselves
I don't know how to poll for that. I imagine there are a range of explanations in this population.
There isn’t a way to poll for that as far as I know.
Which meant at least 2% of respondents claimed both.
My brain hurts.
I wouldn't read too much into those 2%. There will always be someone who misunderstood the question or filled it in wrong due to user error.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-disinformation-idUSKBN2BS0RZ
Looking at the questions, they're not necessarily contradictory positions, because one is about the people who lead the riot, and the other is about the majority of the people gathered at the Capitol.
I wouldn't be surprised if upwards of 25% of Republicans believed that the violence was only a small group lead by left-wing provoceteurs, while most of the big crowd were just peacefully protesting. They're clearly and undeniably wrong about both of those things, but it can fit inside a single narrative.
This is not my stance, just what the more “sane” far right think.
Eh, no concept of empathy or critical thinking would be the underlying problems, Facebook and Foxnews just prey on that. Take away the media and the first two still produce modern conservatives
Most people don't start out lacking empathy or critical thinking skills. Constant exposure to 'if it bleeds it leads' combined with the Just World Fallacy' will kill the first, and constant vigilance with a certain level of tame paranoia is necessary to maintain the second.
Some believe it but other just want the talking points to reinforce their world view. The "3 million illegals voted in 2016" concept never included any audits but it was enough for conservatives to not care that Trump lost the popular vote. This is a deeply cynical movement that discards democratic rule whenever it doesn't serve their desires.
I think it' smore subtle than that, and part of the challenge lies in the difference.
It's not that they discard democratic rule through cynicism. It's that they don't currently understand themselves to be in the minority, especially nationally. It's not "we lost so fuck the vote", it's "there are more of us, so they're breaking the system to get a win". The 'Greater Idaho' movement people are what this looks like when you can no longer maintain the fiction of being a majority. They hate losing, feel marginalized, so they want to swap for a more favorable government.
These people believe they are the preservers of democracy, and the fact that it's starting to look less like them every day is taken as proof of corruption in the system, rather than proof they are not the national majority.
Are you sure that isn't just the OreIda marketing team getting pranked?
A move that was about 12 years late, but hey
I guess it’s getting pretty hard these days to be a Republican and have the ability to talk about your party on-camera without being an open bigot
And will never be totally gone as long as Fox/OAN are still a thing.
These are the same sort who wanted to create the state of Jefferson out of southern Oregon and northern California. And their choice of emblem there - the "double cross" - shows what they're looking for.
To put it another way, stop looking at the movement as motivated by rational evil. These people have been radicalized and need to be treated as such.
Jefferson is so ridiculously absurd-
Yeah we got this state that is huge, whats the best way to split it up? Oh we’ll just split off a part of it with 1/20th of the population and join it to a relatively unpopulated chunk of another state.
Like if you were serious about splitting up california the territory representing Jefferson would probably be the 7th or 8th state you would carve out at best.
Edit: California division proposals seem to be like this in general. Its never “lets just divide Norcal from Socal along one of several obvious geographical or political boundries”. Its always “Lets divide California into 6 states. One state can be the Los Angeles metro area with 15 million people, one can be the Bay Area with 8 million people, then we will divide the remaining 16 million people into 4 new states of 1-5 million people each divided arbitrarily into areas that happen to be majority Republican.
whenever someone would bring this up I would respond about what a coincidence 3 million is how much trump lost the popular vote and do they think I'm an idiot?
And Fox will continue to poison minds as long as it's profitable to do so.
It's also self perpetual as it stands. Fox poisons minds, those minds elect corruption assholes, those corrupt assholes spew poison on air, Fox airs that poison, and around and around we go.
Fox needs the politicians to protect them and give them influence, and the politicians need the base that Fox provides and amps up.
It's a circlejerk of parasites.
Trump delusions don't allow for him to lose by small margins.
In my observation, I disagree. If they didn't think they were in the minority they and their representatives wouldn't be working to make voting harder across the country. They wouldn't be advocating for a wall and a Muslim ban to prevent the country from getting less white if they didn't know immigration threatens their political power.
Pat Buchanan wrote "The Death of the West" 20 years ago. The inevitability of their decline is not new to them. They see themselves as the preservers of white America not democracy.
I’ve always heard it as 3, but maybe the 3 million were from California alone.
We do have Trump on tape asking for basically the votes he needs, plus one, when he was trying to strongarm the recount in Georgia though.
They are over subtlety. They don't want dog whistles anymore and even Gerrymandering isn't enough for them. They want Republicans to just do the things that ensure their permanent rule.
I seem to recall Trump kept making the number bigger every time he ranted about it publicly.
It's both. They think they're the strongest, rightful majority, and also the maligned minority beset on all sides. That's the frustrating duplicity which is a core piece of modern conservativism, and consequently fascism too.
Though I would argue the Jan 6 rioters are special case -suffering from a deadly concoction of being comfortably well off, bored senseless, overly stimulated, and lacking a purpose.
As someone who used to live in southern Oregon (and yes, I'm glad I got out), there is/was the legit feeling among some that "neither state government gives a fuck about us, so more local representation = good". And some would probably say, "why should they (give a fuck)?", but this is hardly an appealing answer to those who happen or choose to live there.
Note that this also extended to the local SCA, which had as much hippy-dippy types as rednecks (at least back then), so it's not just a normie political thing. People in the region feel ignored by the big cities far, far to north and south and want to group up with their neighbors to get, if not a bigger seat at the table, more stuff done amongst themselves.
I have no idea how this may have been further distilled and radicalized in the ~35 years since I bailed, just providing a (formerly) local perspective.
Except Republican Governors shit on local control all the time when it goes the way they don't like. Just look at Texas outlawing mask requirements at the county or school district level. It's not actually a consistently held belief and is just a shibboleth for doing whatever they want regardless.
Someone help me here because I'm just not understanding the problem here.
You move to a low population area for whatever reason and then you get upset that the are isn't that politically important because there's not a whole lot of people to serve there. Just what?
Did they fail their history and civics courses? Was there a big fish, small pond expectation when it should have been any sized fish in the entirety of the ocean reality?
I just don't get it. You're not special. That's the lesson I got from first grade forward when it came to how the US democracy works. You have to work in order to get recognized, let alone played to. How far up your own ass does your head have to be in order to believe otherwise?