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[Rugby] Now the Six Nations Thread.
Alistair Hutton
DrEdinburghRegistered User regular
DrEdinburghRegistered User regular
It is time
Yes, Rugby World Cup Time. Unlike previous years I’ve got the OP up before the first game kicks off! How organised am I, getting things done ahead of time?
Speaking of ahead of time, what about that draw eh? In a move that literally everyone said was a bad idea due to it always and repeatedly being a bad idea World Rugby seeded the draw for this World Cup a full THREE FUCKING YEARS AGO. The obvious, nothing bad could come of this, result is that the teams ranked 1st,2nd,3rd, 4th & 5th in the World are all on one side of the draw meaning only 2 of those teams can make it to the semi-final the other two spots being taken by teams ranked 6th or lower. Even better the teams ranked 1st,2nd&5th are all in the same pool!
For reference the Football World Cup is seeded 1 year in advance.
So where are we at, lets run the rule over everyone
The Rugby world cups kicks off on the 8th of September.
Now let us watch 12 minutes of Antoine DuPont being very good at rugby
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbeHf4tL4Oc
Yes, Rugby World Cup Time. Unlike previous years I’ve got the OP up before the first game kicks off! How organised am I, getting things done ahead of time?
Speaking of ahead of time, what about that draw eh? In a move that literally everyone said was a bad idea due to it always and repeatedly being a bad idea World Rugby seeded the draw for this World Cup a full THREE FUCKING YEARS AGO. The obvious, nothing bad could come of this, result is that the teams ranked 1st,2nd,3rd, 4th & 5th in the World are all on one side of the draw meaning only 2 of those teams can make it to the semi-final the other two spots being taken by teams ranked 6th or lower. Even better the teams ranked 1st,2nd&5th are all in the same pool!
For reference the Football World Cup is seeded 1 year in advance.
So where are we at, lets run the rule over everyone
- Ireland – number 1 team in the World. And for good reason. After a rocky start to this World Cup cycle Andy Farrell has this Ireland team playing an intelligent brand of heads up rugby with a supremely good forward pack. However, the rugby warm ups (with a desperately narrow win of Samoa in particular) show that they are completely dependent on a 56 year old (approx) Johnny Sexton to run the backline. The quality from off from a man who remembers the Great Flood to their next option is gigantic. If Sexton gets injured they Ireland’s chances plummet. Also their scrum is releiant on a loosehead who, despite being the most epnalised in the Six Nations should have had about twice as meany penalties awarded against him. Scrumm reffing is all about preconception and if Porter picks up any more of a bad rep the Irish scrum is in serious trouble
- South Africa – Current World Cup holders and number 2 team in the world. South Africa are just really good. Monstrous mobile forwards, electricity in the backline. However there is some question marks about the depth of talent at half-back for SA so we’ll see what they look like if injuries start popping up. Probably my tip for the cup. Again.
- France – Antoine DuPont is the best player in the World. Antoine DuPont plays for France. However, France are racking up injuries to key players (Danty in particular is a HUUUUGE blow), this may be enough to counteract Antoine DuPont being the best player in the world.
- New Zealand – Oooooh, maybe they’ve pulled out of the doldrums of the Foster coaching regime and getting Schmidt in means that the All Blacks are peaking perfectly for the WC and…. Wham 35-7 loss to South Africa with all the same problems of abysmal discipline and a powerderpuff gameplan exposed. Again. No one in the top 8 in the world is worried about playing NZ but NZ could win any game they play as long as their weaknesses are not exposed.
- Scotland – Currently at an all time professional era best of 5th in the World. Gregor Townsend’s Scotland has experimented with a variety of gameplans and team compositions this World Cup cycle. After testing out variations of “fucking awful shit over proscribed slow static forward pod” game plan and “not playing our best players” team selection Townsend has settled on “fast forwards running around causing chaos” and “selecting our best players” which explains the 5th in the world ranking. The assumption is though that Scotland’s forward pack is simply no where near good enough to go against SA and Ireland’s forward packs who are the two best packs in the World. Also the lineout is dodgy. Scotland could easily put on their best WC performance ever and not get out of their pool. They could also implode and lose to Tonga.
- Argentina – Depends on which Argentina turn up. They have the tools to win any game but they do not seem to be able to string two performances together, even between halves.
- Fiji – Everyone’s favourite 2nd team. And for good reason. Fiji are liquid rugby. They just need to keep 15 players on the pitch for a full match.
- England – 8th in the World. Hahahahahahahahaha. Hahahahaha. Hahahahha. Farrell is such a dangerous cheap shot wanker. It is a crime that England have a straightforward path to the semi-finals. It would be funny if they didn't get out of the pool but Japan don't quite look good enough for me to do the deed.
- Australia – Hahahahahahahahaha. Eddie Jones is such a wanker. It’s an absolute crime Aus have a straightforward path to the semi-finals. It would be funny if they didn't get out of the pool and Wales and Fiji do look good enough but I'm not hopeful.
- Wales – I mean, jeez mate. They were in a bad spot with Pivac. Yet due to the draw and Gatland they could get out of the pool and knock off Arg or England and get to the semi.
The Rugby world cups kicks off on the 8th of September.
Now let us watch 12 minutes of Antoine DuPont being very good at rugby
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbeHf4tL4OcI have a thoughtful and infrequently updated blog about games http://whatithinkaboutwhenithinkaboutgames.wordpress.com/
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Alistair Hutton on
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Entirely plausible it's the final - squeak qualification out of the group in 2nd place and face Fiji in the quarters. Fiji pickup 3 yellow cards (not an unusal situation for them) and England keep their flying shoulders in check to get the win. Face an injury ravage France in the semis, early DuPont hamstring strain and lo - England are facing Scotland in the final of the World Cup. A team England have beaten (checks notes) once in the last (checks notes again) 6 seasons.
Then the shellacking occurs.
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I think Ireland/South Africa for the cup, with SA being slight favourites. Fiji to go on a deep run. Italy to get a big result against someone and settle once and for all* their place in the 6N.
*until next February
I'm secretly banking on Samoa knocking England out but we do come to yet another stupid World Rugby organisational rule for the tournament.
The tie breaker rule for teams on identical match points in the Pools is fucking stupid. If two teams are tied on match points the first tie breaker is "The team that won the head-to-head between them". This sounds like a good tie breaker (after all if you are trying to decide who is the better of two teams then surely the winning team between them is the better team). But it is really bad and the root of the badness is that this doesn't work for a 3-way tie and both pools C and D look ripe for potential 3 way ties.
In a 3 way tie you can't use head-to-head, it's discarded, so instead you use the very standard Points Difference.
This is where things get funky. Imagine you are a team with a poor points difference against the two minnows of the group going into a pair of matches with the 2 strongest teams in the group. If you beat one and lose to the other then you potentially end up in a 3 way tie. Which you will get eliminated on because the two stronger teams ahve a better PD against the minnows. However instead of simply losing to team Alpha and winning against team Beta if you lose badly to Alpha so they get a bonus point and then beat Beta you end up in the situation where instead of being in a 3 way tie for first that you completely lose you end up in a head-to-head for second with Beta which you win because you've won the head to head.
Yes that's right, the stupid, dumb setup rewards you for not ding your best. This is obviously fucking dumb and the only reason it has persisted is because it hasn't managed to fall correctly. In 2011 and 2019 Scotland were potentially in a position where either losing worse or not winning as well would have been better for them.
For example if Ireland had failed to get the full 10 points from their last two pool matches in 2019 Scotland were in a position where beating Japan 5-0 on match points would have seen Scotland qualify second from the pool but win 5-1 and Scotland would have qualified as pool winners. That's dumb and wrong. Similarly in 2011 if would have been better for Scotland to have Argentina score a bonus points against them when they got beat to avoid a 3-way tie with England if Scotland had beat England.
I feel it in my bones that this will be the year a 3-way tie happens and the stupidity of the system is revealed.
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Maybe.
Just feel that Ntmack plus Danty out is too much for France. The French backline is too keen on crazy shit without Danty there to keep theme honest.
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By which I mean it is inscrutable
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Celeste [Switch] - She'll be wrestling with inner demons when she comes...
Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age [Switch] - Sit down and watch our game play itself
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In rugby traditionally the home team plays in the change strip.
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Do nothing and wait for them to completely implode.
Bodey Barrett was absolutely rank.
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New Zealand Vs Scotland from a Scotland tour to New Zealand - the All Blacks playing in white
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The answer was there all along
This aged poorly
You were one pass away
Haven't been able to watch the match yet but it went exactly as I expected from all descriptions: shite lineout, attack eaten by the blitz, big players fucking it when our limited chances did come up.
Sigh.
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Terrific game of rugby
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Looking forward to some of the finest racism of the nineteen eighties if England lose this one
If they weren’t playing Japan - a team and rugby philosophy I like - I wouldn't be watching.
Scotland's strategy of losing to SA so they can face an injury ravaged France in the quarters looks like genius now.
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Fantastic game of rugby (barring the ref team in the first 40 who were utterly atrocious).
Great watch, emotional rollercoaster.
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Watching this on catch up now
Tremendous fun
That said abysmal scrum reffing with Porter pulling down Every. Single. Scrum. and mostly getting away with it.
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Scotland's qualification scenarios vs Ireland are (ASSUMING THEY BP TONGA AND ROMANIA!!!!! This is not a given, do not strike me down for hubris)
4-0 Scotland Qualify in 2nd as win head to head with Ireland
4-1 Scotland go out as SA and Ireland have 15 points and Scotland have 14. Ireland win pool on head-to-head
4-2 (7 pens vs 4 unconverted tries) Scotland go out. Ireland win pool outright
5-0 Scotland Qualify in 2nd as lose head to head with South Africa, Ieeland out of the WC
5-1 Three way tie. If Ireland have best PD then Scotland go out, if SA have best PD then Scotland qualify in 2nd (if Scotland have best PD then miracles can happen and SA go out - this would unequivocally be the funniest result)
5-2 Scotland go out on head-to-head with SA as Ireland win pol with 16 points.
At least we don't have any weird counter intuitive results open to us unlike the Wales-Aus game where, if Wales are losing, it is better for Wales's qualification chances to let Aus rack up a huge score. I'll let you work out why.
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Well,
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Wonder if thats still on the table after this showing
I refer the honourable gentleman to my op.
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We needed another 20 points out of that match to avoid the 3 way points difference apocalypse.
How the Tongan winger avoided a red I do not know.
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