Well, items CAN act as vigs, but you aren't guaranteed an elimination item every day.
No, I'm reasonably sure there's a true vig.
For one thing, in order for Inf to have run the numbers on kill balance, he would have needed to know how many kills he's got per day. He'd need to calculate the Expected Value from each item table (probably a few different kinds, if not necessarily individually tailored tables) for eliminations (red shells and bombs, shade slightly down due to defensive item potential). It's *possible* he did it this way, but given that it's a reasonable scenario that mafia were RNG'd from all roles and could potentially have had the heavy kill tables all in the mafia's hands, in this scenario the village pretty much has to get a true vig if only for stability's sake.
If, OTOH, Inf selected the mafia a different way (possibly with a reroll if too many of them landed in the same 'class' of item table?), he may have been able to call it a wash in terms of where kills ended up, but this doesn't sound reasonable to me.
If there are Seers, I'm hoping they realize they should stay in last place, where it's harder to kill them. The only way to hit them would be if some of the Mafia lag behind as well, and any mafia who does that is going to have a hard time actually winning the race.
I wouldn't expect there to be any Seers in such a short game, though.
If there are Seers, I'm hoping they realize they should stay in last place, where it's harder to kill them. The only way to hit them would be if some of the Mafia lag behind as well, and any mafia who does that is going to have a hard time actually winning the race.
I wouldn't expect there to be any Seers in such a short game, though.
Yes, because the Seer totally has a choice in their place.
It's not something they have direct control of like their post count. =p
They should do whatever the hell they would normally do so as not to stick out to the mafia who can likely kill you no matter where you are.
Ugh. Much as I want to keep my vote on Dunadan, Tiphareth is tripping my mafia sensor. Then again, so is Kime slightly. Hrm.
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SpectrumArcher of InfernoChaldea Rec RoomRegistered Userregular
edited November 2009
Are eliminated racers eligible for circuit victory?
Ie, mafia member somehow manages to get 1st place in the first 3 races before being eliminated, so they have 45 points. Are they still a threat to win?
Are eliminated racers eligible for circuit victory?
Ie, mafia member somehow manages to get 1st place in the first 3 races before being eliminated, so they have 45 points. Are they still a threat to win?
A racer must complete all four races to win the Mini Circuit.
Meh, to clarify my earlier "plan". I have a star item, if I get some votes I'd pop it and blaze in first place, since it makes me immune and all that. I sincerely hope the mafia doesn't have any kill-a-day abilities.
However, since this is only a 4 day game there isn't really any use for kills in it. Race victory is the only thing that matters.
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SpectrumArcher of InfernoChaldea Rec RoomRegistered Userregular
edited November 2009
Yes, clearly killing the village specials, the dangerous people, and anyone ahead of their chosen mafia member pushing for a high place in the races is not what the mafia wants to do.
OH WAIT ALL THOSE THINGS CONTRIBUTE TO RACE VICTORY.
Yes, because the Seer totally has a choice in their place.
It's not something they have direct control of like their post count. =p
They should do whatever the hell they would normally do so as not to stick out to the mafia who can likely kill you no matter where you are.
I'm controlling my place by not soliciting Blue Votes from anyone else. I could control it further by hoarding items from my position instead of doing actions that count as votes.
And there should be enough people in last place to make the odds of the Mafia picking Seers out of the bunch fairly low. When you're ahead of the pack and in danger of being smacked by Village Items as well, however, you're in danger.
Since most games have deaths as the way of controlling length, they need a certain amount of kill abilities to make it work. Since this game does not use kills to limit the length of it, it does not necessarily contain kill abilities. We will know that tomorrow however. The kill items might take the place of roles etc too, which you did speculate upon spectrum.
Also, mostly awful aim comes from paranoia and limited information. No?
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SpectrumArcher of InfernoChaldea Rec RoomRegistered Userregular
Since most games have deaths as the way of controlling length, they need a certain amount of kill abilities to make it work. Since this game does not use kills to limit the length of it, it does not necessarily contain kill abilities. We will know that tomorrow however. The kill items might take the place of roles etc too, which you did speculate upon spectrum.
Also, mostly awful aim comes from paranoia and limited information. No?
Haha, okay. The mafia don't have a good chance of winning this if they don't have kills to thin the pack. They need to kill enough people such that their chosen member(s) they're pushing to get high in the standings have a chance to actually get that high.
And no, many people just have abysmal aim. (See any game with kuhlmeye as a vig.)
I would then suggest that perhaps kuhlmeye is a bit worse at reading people through a text medium or perhaps that he is a bit more paranoid than your person with average aim and thus gets a lot more false positives on his mafia radar. Anyway I digress.
Although I agree with you that networks are not necessarily a good thing, confirmed people are a good thing.
Blue vote manips and abilities might be enough to close the gap, but it is probably a more traditional game than I first anticipated. So yeah.
I would then suggest that perhaps kuhlmeye is a bit worse at reading people through a text medium or perhaps that he is a bit more paranoid than your person with average aim and thus gets a lot more false positives on his mafia radar. Anyway I digress.
Kime, if you switch your vote to someone with two votes (other than gandalf, since I took my vote from him) I can join you and we can give someone four votes.
Then you'll have to get five votes to be eliminated.
I still consider myself a newbie to phalla and don't know all that much of my fellow phallaers. It was just a suggestion as a possible explanation. Nothing more.
Kime, if you switch your vote to someone with two votes (other than gandalf, since I took my vote from him) I can join you and we can give someone four votes.
Then you'll have to get five votes to be eliminated.
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For one thing, in order for Inf to have run the numbers on kill balance, he would have needed to know how many kills he's got per day. He'd need to calculate the Expected Value from each item table (probably a few different kinds, if not necessarily individually tailored tables) for eliminations (red shells and bombs, shade slightly down due to defensive item potential). It's *possible* he did it this way, but given that it's a reasonable scenario that mafia were RNG'd from all roles and could potentially have had the heavy kill tables all in the mafia's hands, in this scenario the village pretty much has to get a true vig if only for stability's sake.
If, OTOH, Inf selected the mafia a different way (possibly with a reroll if too many of them landed in the same 'class' of item table?), he may have been able to call it a wash in terms of where kills ended up, but this doesn't sound reasonable to me.
EDIT: somewhat beat'd repeatedly. >.>
I wouldn't expect there to be any Seers in such a short game, though.
https://twitter.com/Hooraydiation
It's not something they have direct control of like their post count. =p
They should do whatever the hell they would normally do so as not to stick out to the mafia who can likely kill you no matter where you are.
Ie, mafia member somehow manages to get 1st place in the first 3 races before being eliminated, so they have 45 points. Are they still a threat to win?
A racer must complete all four races to win the Mini Circuit.
Muahahahahaha
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Have I ever, not tripped your mafia sensor?
However, since this is only a 4 day game there isn't really any use for kills in it. Race victory is the only thing that matters.
OH WAIT ALL THOSE THINGS CONTRIBUTE TO RACE VICTORY.
I'm controlling my place by not soliciting Blue Votes from anyone else. I could control it further by hoarding items from my position instead of doing actions that count as votes.
And there should be enough people in last place to make the odds of the Mafia picking Seers out of the bunch fairly low. When you're ahead of the pack and in danger of being smacked by Village Items as well, however, you're in danger.
https://twitter.com/Hooraydiation
Also, mostly awful aim comes from paranoia and limited information. No?
And no, many people just have abysmal aim. (See any game with kuhlmeye as a vig.)
Rad Vote
kime - 3
enlightenedbum, Gandalf_the_Crazed, MrBlarney, Tiphareth, Toxic Toys - 2
Arivia, B:L, Dunadan019 - 1
Blue Vote
kime, B:L - 3
Toxic Toys, Burnage - 2
enlightenedbum, MrBlarney, Dunadan019, adventfalls, Daius, FunkyWaltDogg, Jaenther, lonelyahava, simonwolf - 1
....... This is not ideal at all. Perhaps we could fix it?
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Raakam, you wanna join in? You said you'd listen to me for the red vote :P.
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Aw, I defended you in Disgaea!
Also, switching Red vote to Arivia to save Kime, whom I owe.
https://twitter.com/Hooraydiation
Although I agree with you that networks are not necessarily a good thing, confirmed people are a good thing.
Blue vote manips and abilities might be enough to close the gap, but it is probably a more traditional game than I first anticipated. So yeah.
but you're evil.
You actually have killed me a lot recently .
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Okay, let's go stronger.
How about kime as vig? Or Oats?
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Then you'll have to get five votes to be eliminated.
https://twitter.com/Hooraydiation
but you're the seer this time so that's kinda a wash.
It looks like this may work, thanks though!
Yeah.... and I'm a bad seer. Granted, I've only been seer once, but it was kind of a .... bad experience...
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you - 5
your mom - .25/go
everyone else - []
kime
Robos A Go Go
simonwolf
ebum - 3
Toxic Toys
adventfalls
kime - 3
Tiphareth
Zandracon
Blarney - 2
shalmelo
Several with one.
Also, I'm being made fun of in IRC because apparently that's not exactly right, but I think it is so there!
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That is a high quality spredeshete but that's copyrighted by one MrB:Larney.
Have a spreadsheet.
Current Spreadsheet (up to post 240)