I'm sad that North Korea was apparently bullshitting about any kind of peace, but also kind of reassured that yes our idiot in chief hadn't suddenly been successful by being a huge asshole.
Maybe they're serious about making peace with South Korea but not the US. I'm not sure how likely such a possibility is, but consider:
South Korea is not really concerned with further North Korean "nuclearization." As far as South Korea is concerned, North Korea is already nuclear; that they can't launch their nukes across the Pacific is irrelevant to South Korea. Furthermore, even without nuclear weapons, North Korea possesses a wide array of WMDs and conventional military forces that are more than enough to wreak devastation on South Korea.
US security promises are not what they once were. Though Trump may only be a 4, or even 8, year president, South Korea has no guarantees as to who will come next. Also, Trump was elected, thus suggesting that the forces and perspectives that elected him reside not solely within him but within the US electorate, who may choose to replace Trump with another President with similar views.
Chinese regional (economic) dominance may be inevitable, especially with the US turning inwards. If such dominance is inevitable, it may behoove smaller Asian nations to sign on early to reap the benefits of preferred status. Regardless, it may be worthwhile to hedge, as many Asian nations have already done.
Yes, China will likely extract various concessions out of South Korea if South Korea were to join its sphere and rely on Chinese security promises to alleviate the threat of North Korean invasion. That being said, isn't Trump doing the exact same thing with tariffs and the US-South Korean free trade agreement? What's the difference, except that China arguably has more motivation to keep the peace in Korea than the US does?
How likely is the possibility that China could actually peel the South Koreans out of the US sphere of influence by dangling the prospects of permanent peace on the Korean peninsula? I don't know. But I do know that it is definitely something China would like to do, and remember that the behaviours of nations are predicated on their (mis-)reading of other nations, so... I don't know. Even if Kim and/or Xi don't think it's seriously possible, at least testing the waters, with an extremely pro-unification South Korean president and ... well Trump, could very well be a sensible course of action in and of itself.
I think they are only serious about trying to get some relief. Their nuclear program is on hold anyway, might as well exploit the situation.
Yup. That definitely seems like the most plausible situation given the information we have.
KJU - "Haha! Look at the Americans running scared of our nuclear program!"
Goon - "Boss! Our nuclear testing facility just collapsed! Almost everything is gone! We're gonna need to rebuild everything!"
KJU - "Crap! What to do? What to do? I know, I'll restart peace talks, offering a willingness to negotiate 'disarmament' while we get things back on track. Then once that's done, I'll just sabotage the talks."
KJU - "Also, can someone execute this goon for bringing me bad news."
Tradition, basically the only time anyone in our political establishment gives a shit about the damage Trump is doing is when he messes with tradition.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
To all of the people saying that peace won't happen, I say that you can't discount South Korea just yet. They're under a lot of pressure from a criminal conspiracy of unstable madmen with nuclear weapons, but I'm sure they'll revoke our basing rights eventually.
To all of the people saying that peace won't happen, I say that you can't discount South Korea just yet. They're under a lot of pressure from a criminal conspiracy of unstable madmen with nuclear weapons, but I'm sure they'll revoke our basing rights eventually.
Because they are sane human beings possessed of some amount of decency and we are a collapsing imperial power that has propagandized itself to the point of insanity.
Because they are sane human beings possessed of some amount of decency and we are a collapsing imperial power that has propagandized itself to the point of insanity.
That's not a real answer. The first part is utterly irrelevant and the second part isn't really true or at best is only in the very earliest stages of something that could take decades or more. The US is still a valuable ally, the North Koreans are still breathing down their necks if nothing else and the alternative is cozying up to the Chinese more, which isn't really a move that gets you in a better position on anything you are talking about here.
Because they are sane human beings possessed of some amount of decency and we are a collapsing imperial power that has propagandized itself to the point of insanity.
State's don't typically kick out allies/protectors when they're under external threat.
Because they’re part of an old military tradition and Trump has decided to put the silhouette of someone we're still technically at war with on one.
It’s hardly the worst thing to ever happen but it definitely is insulting that he’s using those in such a manner.
Yeah, it's one of those things that doesn't matter a great deal but is just another small example of how these chucklefucks are narcissistic corrupt idiots with no care for the things they are in charge of.
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ElJeffeRoaming the streets, waving his mod gun around.Moderator, ClubPAMod Emeritus
I would imagine a lot of foreign nations are trying to hedge their bets in hopes that Trump is an anomaly and not the new status quo.
Maybe in three years a sane person will take over and they can reestablish relations with the US with some added protections.
I submitted an entry to Lego Ideas, and if 10,000 people support me, it'll be turned into an actual Lego set!If you'd like to see and support my submission, follow this link.
I think we'd all like to imagine and/or hope that, but what's to stop this from happening again?
How does the world deal with a (declining) superpower that has started to show dementia and bipolar disorder, and owns more guns than the rest of the neighborhood put together?
Commander Zoom on
+10
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MeeqeLord of the pants most fancySomeplace amazingRegistered Userregular
Its not just Trump they are viewing through this lens, our country may have memory holed Dubya but other countries have not.
Trump looks like a pattern, and while Obama was a damn sight better than either but his actions in Libya and Syria don’t paint him in a great light objectively, just better than 43 and 45.
You hope they don't pull a Trump again. There's no reason to cut your losses now, that's just ridiculously short-sighted.
You make contingency plans but mostly you just hope that this too will pass. And there's a good chance it will for a good chunk of time after Trump is gone.
You hope they don't pull a Trump again. There's no reason to cut your losses now, that's just ridiculously short-sighted.
You make contingency plans but mostly you just hope that this too will pass. And there's a good chance it will for a good chunk of time after Trump is gone.
There's no reason to believe the US won't pull another BushTrump, and every reason to believe they would. At best, you might get 8 years of not complete insanity, and even then only if somehow no Republican has a position of power in the federal government.
Its not just Trump they are viewing through this lens, our country may have memory holed Dubya but other countries have not.
Trump looks like a pattern, and while Obama was a damn sight better than either but his actions in Libya and Syria don’t paint him in a great light objectively, just better than 43 and 45.
Our foreign policy has been batshit since 9/11.
Nah, that's just fucking silly. Like, you can object to those actions, and there's certainly grounds for it, but to US allies there's nothing there from a foreign policy perspective that's a real issue. Like, you think Japan or Germany or Canada really give a shit about any of that when it comes to self-interested foreign policy?
Obama was basically an ideal US President for the majority of american allies. (Israel being probably the one I can think most annoyed by his stances and that's mostly them being used to a really enthusiastic handy rather then just a slightly enthused one)
You hope they don't pull a Trump again. There's no reason to cut your losses now, that's just ridiculously short-sighted.
You make contingency plans but mostly you just hope that this too will pass. And there's a good chance it will for a good chunk of time after Trump is gone.
There's no reason to believe the US won't pull another BushTrump, and every reason to believe they would. At best, you might get 8 years of not complete insanity, and even then only if somehow no Republican has a position of power in the federal government.
And maybe the next Republican President isn't as insane as Trump when it comes to policy that effects you.
There is zero reason not to just take a position of wait, see what happens and hedge your bets a bit. Jumping early gets you nothing.
The idea that we're never going to have another Trump seems laughable in the face of how Bush is now just this funny old guy who we miss so dearly.
Bush was no.1 in this pattern, Trump is no.2. Bush is being missed only because of how far Trump’s leadership is - which is Bush’s on steroids without a brain. This is why America’s a laughing stock on the world stage again, and the usual suspects are trying to see if they can get further ahead with their goals RE: Bolton.
Have to draw the line somewhere, unless we plan on going all the way back to Nixon? Further?
For many, the turn of the millennium and the post-Cold War (or so it seemed at the time) period, and then 9/11, marks a significant and convenient shift in the United States' perception of and relations with the rest of the world, and vice versa.
I'm sad that North Korea was apparently bullshitting about any kind of peace, but also kind of reassured that yes our idiot in chief hadn't suddenly been successful by being a huge asshole.
Wasn't the US the one bullshitting about peace when both Bolton and Pence touted the "Libya Model" where we bomb their military and the leader is sodomized with a knife?
Before Bolton came on, back in early march there was a belief Korea would become united and rejoin the normal international sphere. It was only recently when the obvious happened I thought?
For some reason people thought that the north agreeing to talks meant that Peace in our Time was a fait accompli. I saw this on my facebook feed, a professor of philosophy of all things was saying this event would be remembered for hundreds of years. I suggested he should maybe wait to see how it really played out, ha.
Some people just want to get out in front of history and claim they totally called the Berlin Wall coming down.
and, I think, some people - including a lot who actually aren't his fans, at all - are desperate for any hint or hope that Trump and his administration may have somehow improved or helped things, anything, however accidental and unintentional, rather than just being an all-around disaster and national embarrassment. Grasping at straws.
Commander Zoom on
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MeeqeLord of the pants most fancySomeplace amazingRegistered Userregular
Its not just Trump they are viewing through this lens, our country may have memory holed Dubya but other countries have not.
Trump looks like a pattern, and while Obama was a damn sight better than either but his actions in Libya and Syria don’t paint him in a great light objectively, just better than 43 and 45.
Our foreign policy has been batshit since 9/11.
Nah, that's just fucking silly. Like, you can object to those actions, and there's certainly grounds for it, but to US allies there's nothing there from a foreign policy perspective that's a real issue. Like, you think Japan or Germany or Canada really give a shit about any of that when it comes to self-interested foreign policy?
Obama was basically an ideal US President for the majority of american allies. (Israel being probably the one I can think most annoyed by his stances and that's mostly them being used to a really enthusiastic handy rather then just a slightly enthused one)
I completely agree that Obama was viewed in a positive light in terms of American allies, but in terms of resolving problems areas he wasn’t perfect. Hell, how many times has the Libyan situation been referenced on these forums as being problematic in terms of getting NK and Iran to play nice with the West? He was a great, great president but lets be realistic that not everything he did worked out perfectly, and thats all I’m getting at, nothing more.
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knitdanIn ur baseKillin ur guysRegistered Userregular
Its not just Trump they are viewing through this lens, our country may have memory holed Dubya but other countries have not.
Trump looks like a pattern, and while Obama was a damn sight better than either but his actions in Libya and Syria don’t paint him in a great light objectively, just better than 43 and 45.
Our foreign policy has been batshit since 9/11.
Nah, that's just fucking silly. Like, you can object to those actions, and there's certainly grounds for it, but to US allies there's nothing there from a foreign policy perspective that's a real issue. Like, you think Japan or Germany or Canada really give a shit about any of that when it comes to self-interested foreign policy?
Obama was basically an ideal US President for the majority of american allies. (Israel being probably the one I can think most annoyed by his stances and that's mostly them being used to a really enthusiastic handy rather then just a slightly enthused one)
I completely agree that Obama was viewed in a positive light in terms of American allies, but in terms of resolving problems areas he wasn’t perfect. Hell, how many times has the Libyan situation been referenced on these forums as being problematic in terms of getting NK and Iran to play nice with the West? He was a great, great president but lets be realistic that not everything he did worked out perfectly, and thats all I’m getting at, nothing more.
Depends on which allies you care about. The US's European allies were probably pleased. Its East Asian allies probably didn't give a shit.
Is still just grating when Democrats challenge Trump over not being warmongery enough. Specially with a guy like Bolton at his side just itching for a war.
You hope they don't pull a Trump again. There's no reason to cut your losses now, that's just ridiculously short-sighted.
You make contingency plans but mostly you just hope that this too will pass. And there's a good chance it will for a good chunk of time after Trump is gone.
There's no reason to believe the US won't pull another BushTrump, and every reason to believe they would. At best, you might get 8 years of not complete insanity, and even then only if somehow no Republican has a position of power in the federal government.
One might reassure said allies by pointing out that Trump's voter base skews elderly.
Its not just Trump they are viewing through this lens, our country may have memory holed Dubya but other countries have not.
Trump looks like a pattern, and while Obama was a damn sight better than either but his actions in Libya and Syria don’t paint him in a great light objectively, just better than 43 and 45.
Our foreign policy has been batshit since 9/11.
Nah, that's just fucking silly. Like, you can object to those actions, and there's certainly grounds for it, but to US allies there's nothing there from a foreign policy perspective that's a real issue. Like, you think Japan or Germany or Canada really give a shit about any of that when it comes to self-interested foreign policy?
Obama was basically an ideal US President for the majority of american allies. (Israel being probably the one I can think most annoyed by his stances and that's mostly them being used to a really enthusiastic handy rather then just a slightly enthused one)
I completely agree that Obama was viewed in a positive light in terms of American allies, but in terms of resolving problems areas he wasn’t perfect. Hell, how many times has the Libyan situation been referenced on these forums as being problematic in terms of getting NK and Iran to play nice with the West? He was a great, great president but lets be realistic that not everything he did worked out perfectly, and thats all I’m getting at, nothing more.
Libya was mostly pushed by the French, we just kind of tagged along for the military-industrial complex. It was problematic, but in a way that continued the dominant worldview of the foreign policy establishment.
Its not just Trump they are viewing through this lens, our country may have memory holed Dubya but other countries have not.
Trump looks like a pattern, and while Obama was a damn sight better than either but his actions in Libya and Syria don’t paint him in a great light objectively, just better than 43 and 45.
Our foreign policy has been batshit since 9/11.
Nah, that's just fucking silly. Like, you can object to those actions, and there's certainly grounds for it, but to US allies there's nothing there from a foreign policy perspective that's a real issue. Like, you think Japan or Germany or Canada really give a shit about any of that when it comes to self-interested foreign policy?
Obama was basically an ideal US President for the majority of american allies. (Israel being probably the one I can think most annoyed by his stances and that's mostly them being used to a really enthusiastic handy rather then just a slightly enthused one)
I completely agree that Obama was viewed in a positive light in terms of American allies, but in terms of resolving problems areas he wasn’t perfect. Hell, how many times has the Libyan situation been referenced on these forums as being problematic in terms of getting NK and Iran to play nice with the West? He was a great, great president but lets be realistic that not everything he did worked out perfectly, and thats all I’m getting at, nothing more.
If you think NK would have been one Iota less dickish today if obama hadn't responded the way he did you are sorely mistaken.
Bush 2 is much less of a problem w/r/t foreign credibility than is Trump; Bush may not have actually cared about the opinions of other countries on many subjects, but he observed the appropriate forms: he sent Colin Powell to the U.N., did his level best to assemble international backing for his policies (Poland!), courted traditional allies, etc. Iraq has the look of postcolonial spasms experienced by various countries in places like Algeria, Vietnam, the Suez, etc. It's not a good look but it's not as harmful to the idea of the U.S. as a reliable partner/hegemon as Trump's deliberate, idiotic self-destruction.
it was the smallest on the list but
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
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MeeqeLord of the pants most fancySomeplace amazingRegistered Userregular
Oh they’d be dicks, but they would have less rhetorical cover to use against us. I’m firmly pro-West with most of complaints about foreign policy being when the US jumps the gun and isolates our allies, but as we’re seeing currently our mistakes have consequences for the next go around, and in this case the US/ West’s handling of Libya is being used by NK to paint us as untrustworthy and not deal with us.
Would they make other excuses if history had gone differently? Of course. But those excuses might have had to been pulled out of thier asses, as opposed to bludgeoning us with examples of countries complying with western demands and still getting Dear Leader killed. And because they have a real actual example to cite in this case, they get to look reasonable (more so than usual at least), and looking reasonable is one of the currencies that international relations trade on.
Bush 2 is much less of a problem w/r/t foreign credibility than is Trump; Bush may not have actually cared about the opinions of other countries on many subjects, but he observed the appropriate forms: he sent Colin Powell to the U.N., did his level best to assemble international backing for his policies (Poland!), courted traditional allies, etc. Iraq has the look of postcolonial spasms experienced by various countries in places like Algeria, Vietnam, the Suez, etc. It's not a good look but it's not as harmful to the idea of the U.S. as a reliable partner/hegemon as Trump's deliberate, idiotic self-destruction.
Bush being less of a problem than Trump is internationally didn't mean he wasn't a train wreck on the world stage and wasn't a big factor in turning the world against America. Nor was Iraq solely about Colin Powell, Bush treated the UN nuclear inspectors horribly in public and gave them little warning before going in. His government were not happy friends with the UN, and over time his international coalition into Iraq fell apart due to his mishandling operations. People have forgotten how bad Bush was internationally, like how American tourists had to pretend to be Canadians to not be harassed by the locals bad. He was simply a warm up in various areas in foreign policy to Trump. It took years for Obama to appease the world to trust America again.
I don't think it took years; by the time Obama's speech in Cairo happened whatever damage Bush inflicted was well on its way to being repaired. That speech hasn't aged all that well in its particulars but imo it did substantively reverse a lot of the ill-will engendered by the Bush administration. I think this is because while Bush did support a lot of stupid policy, he was not fundamentally unreliable about it. Careful observers even at the time could predict that the rationale for the Iraqi invasion was largely falsehood, but it was (mostly) not considered baldly ridiculous falsehood the way most of Trump's statements are.
contra Trump, who appears to just like... think trade wars are cool.
it was the smallest on the list but
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
Posts
KJU - "Haha! Look at the Americans running scared of our nuclear program!"
Goon - "Boss! Our nuclear testing facility just collapsed! Almost everything is gone! We're gonna need to rebuild everything!"
KJU - "Crap! What to do? What to do? I know, I'll restart peace talks, offering a willingness to negotiate 'disarmament' while we get things back on track. Then once that's done, I'll just sabotage the talks."
KJU - "Also, can someone execute this goon for bringing me bad news."
Why people care about the stupid coin again?
Tradition, basically the only time anyone in our political establishment gives a shit about the damage Trump is doing is when he messes with tradition.
pleasepaypreacher.net
People on a sinking ship pondering the chairs.
It'll look tacky in Parkinson's Bike-Shed
Why?
Because they’re part of an old military tradition and Trump has decided to put the silhouette of someone we're still technically at war with on one.
It’s hardly the worst thing to ever happen but it definitely is insulting that he’s using those in such a manner.
That's not a real answer. The first part is utterly irrelevant and the second part isn't really true or at best is only in the very earliest stages of something that could take decades or more. The US is still a valuable ally, the North Koreans are still breathing down their necks if nothing else and the alternative is cozying up to the Chinese more, which isn't really a move that gets you in a better position on anything you are talking about here.
State's don't typically kick out allies/protectors when they're under external threat.
Yeah, it's one of those things that doesn't matter a great deal but is just another small example of how these chucklefucks are narcissistic corrupt idiots with no care for the things they are in charge of.
Maybe in three years a sane person will take over and they can reestablish relations with the US with some added protections.
How does the world deal with a (declining) superpower that has started to show dementia and bipolar disorder, and owns more guns than the rest of the neighborhood put together?
Trump looks like a pattern, and while Obama was a damn sight better than either but his actions in Libya and Syria don’t paint him in a great light objectively, just better than 43 and 45.
Our foreign policy has been batshit since 9/11.
You make contingency plans but mostly you just hope that this too will pass. And there's a good chance it will for a good chunk of time after Trump is gone.
Nah, that's just fucking silly. Like, you can object to those actions, and there's certainly grounds for it, but to US allies there's nothing there from a foreign policy perspective that's a real issue. Like, you think Japan or Germany or Canada really give a shit about any of that when it comes to self-interested foreign policy?
Obama was basically an ideal US President for the majority of american allies. (Israel being probably the one I can think most annoyed by his stances and that's mostly them being used to a really enthusiastic handy rather then just a slightly enthused one)
And maybe the next Republican President isn't as insane as Trump when it comes to policy that effects you.
There is zero reason not to just take a position of wait, see what happens and hedge your bets a bit. Jumping early gets you nothing.
While there’s plenty of stupid in our voters, we’re getting consistent majorities voting for the least bad option for international relations.
/sigh this post was supposed to make me feel better
Bush was no.1 in this pattern, Trump is no.2. Bush is being missed only because of how far Trump’s leadership is - which is Bush’s on steroids without a brain. This is why America’s a laughing stock on the world stage again, and the usual suspects are trying to see if they can get further ahead with their goals RE: Bolton.
For many, the turn of the millennium and the post-Cold War (or so it seemed at the time) period, and then 9/11, marks a significant and convenient shift in the United States' perception of and relations with the rest of the world, and vice versa.
Some people just want to get out in front of history and claim they totally called the Berlin Wall coming down.
The rest of us remember that NK is involved..
I completely agree that Obama was viewed in a positive light in terms of American allies, but in terms of resolving problems areas he wasn’t perfect. Hell, how many times has the Libyan situation been referenced on these forums as being problematic in terms of getting NK and Iran to play nice with the West? He was a great, great president but lets be realistic that not everything he did worked out perfectly, and thats all I’m getting at, nothing more.
The conspiracy theory thread is here: https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/189515/choose-your-own-conspiracy-theories
-Indiana Solo, runner of blades
Depends on which allies you care about. The US's European allies were probably pleased. Its East Asian allies probably didn't give a shit.
One might reassure said allies by pointing out that Trump's voter base skews elderly.
Libya was mostly pushed by the French, we just kind of tagged along for the military-industrial complex. It was problematic, but in a way that continued the dominant worldview of the foreign policy establishment.
If you think NK would have been one Iota less dickish today if obama hadn't responded the way he did you are sorely mistaken.
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget
Would they make other excuses if history had gone differently? Of course. But those excuses might have had to been pulled out of thier asses, as opposed to bludgeoning us with examples of countries complying with western demands and still getting Dear Leader killed. And because they have a real actual example to cite in this case, they get to look reasonable (more so than usual at least), and looking reasonable is one of the currencies that international relations trade on.
Bush being less of a problem than Trump is internationally didn't mean he wasn't a train wreck on the world stage and wasn't a big factor in turning the world against America. Nor was Iraq solely about Colin Powell, Bush treated the UN nuclear inspectors horribly in public and gave them little warning before going in. His government were not happy friends with the UN, and over time his international coalition into Iraq fell apart due to his mishandling operations. People have forgotten how bad Bush was internationally, like how American tourists had to pretend to be Canadians to not be harassed by the locals bad. He was simply a warm up in various areas in foreign policy to Trump. It took years for Obama to appease the world to trust America again.
contra Trump, who appears to just like... think trade wars are cool.
Pluto was a planet and I'll never forget