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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Million To One Shot Now Odds On Favourite

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    HenroidHenroid Mexican kicked from Immigration Thread Centrism is Racism :3Registered User regular
    I'm so glad Lord Buckethead is making his play.

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    autono-wally, erotibot300autono-wally, erotibot300 love machine Registered User regular
    Interesting anecdote from visiting my parents in rural Suffolk.

    Following the collapse of UKIP and Lib Dems in many of the wards the only parties are Labour, Tory and Green.

    Depending on personal politics people have been turned off Tories either because they haven't brexited hard enough or too much. Locally, no one likes Labour so in a weird way Green are potentially picking up a decent amount of votes in such an environment.

    The greens are also picking up a lot of votes in Germany, because they're for the environment, and for the economy, but hate the very far right with a passion. For many, that's a nice combination

    kFJhXwE.jpgkFJhXwE.jpg
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    DhalphirDhalphir don't you open that trapdoor you're a fool if you dareRegistered User regular
    The same is true in Australia. The Greens seem to be the only party that makes any decisions based on consulting experts in a given field rather than just gut feelings and decades-old ideologies.

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    TubularLuggageTubularLuggage Registered User regular
    On Tuesday, the Green party in the Canadian province of PEI have at least a chance of forming the first Green government in Canada. That it's even a possibility is pretty big.

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    NyysjanNyysjan FinlandRegistered User regular
    In Finland, Social Democrats became the biggest winner in last election (couple weeks ago).
    Unfortunately second biggest (1 seat difference, 40 to 39) was the anti eu racist/nationalist/populist party.
    Going to be interesting to see how the government works out.

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    Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Nyysjan wrote: »
    In Finland, Social Democrats became the biggest winner in last election (couple weeks ago).
    Unfortunately second biggest (1 seat difference, 40 to 39) was the anti eu racist/nationalist/populist party.
    Going to be interesting to see how the government works out.

    Imma go with "it won't", but that's probably a topic for another thread.

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    klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    How's Strong & Stable doing?

    Theresa May to face grassroots no-confidence challenge
    More than 70 local association chiefs - angry at her handling of Brexit - have called for an extraordinary general meeting to discuss her leadership.

    A non-binding vote will be held at that National Conservative Convention EGM.

    Dinah Glover, chairwoman of the London East Area Conservatives, said there was "despair in the party".

    She told the BBC: "I'm afraid the prime minister is conducting negotiations in such a way that the party does not approve."

    The Conservative Party's 800 highest-ranking officers, including those chairing the local associations, will take part in the vote.

    Under party rules, MPs cannot call another no-confidence vote until December 2019.

    However, an EGM has to convene if more than 65 local associations demand one via a petition.

    We have more time, let's use it to argue amongst ourselves!

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    .
    klemming wrote: »
    How's Strong & Stable doing?

    Theresa May to face grassroots no-confidence challenge
    More than 70 local association chiefs - angry at her handling of Brexit - have called for an extraordinary general meeting to discuss her leadership.

    A non-binding vote will be held at that National Conservative Convention EGM.

    Dinah Glover, chairwoman of the London East Area Conservatives, said there was "despair in the party".

    She told the BBC: "I'm afraid the prime minister is conducting negotiations in such a way that the party does not approve."

    The Conservative Party's 800 highest-ranking officers, including those chairing the local associations, will take part in the vote.

    Under party rules, MPs cannot call another no-confidence vote until December 2019.

    However, an EGM has to convene if more than 65 local associations demand one via a petition.

    We have more time, let's use it to argue amongst ourselves!

    Lets go on holiday first then we can come back and argue among ourselves.

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    V1mV1m Registered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    How's Strong & Stable doing?

    Theresa May to face grassroots no-confidence challenge
    More than 70 local association chiefs - angry at her handling of Brexit - have called for an extraordinary general meeting to discuss her leadership.

    A non-binding vote will be held at that National Conservative Convention EGM.

    Dinah Glover, chairwoman of the London East Area Conservatives, said there was "despair in the party".

    She told the BBC: "I'm afraid the prime minister is conducting negotiations in such a way that the party does not approve."

    The Conservative Party's 800 highest-ranking officers, including those chairing the local associations, will take part in the vote.

    Under party rules, MPs cannot call another no-confidence vote until December 2019.

    However, an EGM has to convene if more than 65 local associations demand one via a petition.

    We have more time, let's use it to argue amongst ourselves!

    "We're super mad that she wasn't able to make 1 +1 = 111, or, because of party factionalism, even 1, so let's have a party faction row to make everything 111 again"

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    PeccaviPeccavi Registered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    How's Strong & Stable doing?

    Theresa May to face grassroots no-confidence challenge
    More than 70 local association chiefs - angry at her handling of Brexit - have called for an extraordinary general meeting to discuss her leadership.

    A non-binding vote will be held at that National Conservative Convention EGM.

    Dinah Glover, chairwoman of the London East Area Conservatives, said there was "despair in the party".

    She told the BBC: "I'm afraid the prime minister is conducting negotiations in such a way that the party does not approve."

    The Conservative Party's 800 highest-ranking officers, including those chairing the local associations, will take part in the vote.

    Under party rules, MPs cannot call another no-confidence vote until December 2019.

    However, an EGM has to convene if more than 65 local associations demand one via a petition.

    We have more time, let's use it to argue amongst ourselves!

    I'm honestly not sure how the government will respond to the result of this non-binding vote.

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    klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    I am having trouble keeping track of it. She passes a no confidence vote, so they try to have another vote with a different group of people?
    If we could do that with the Brexit vote we could just limit it to Gibraltar and get an over 90% remain result.

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
    edited April 2019
    klemming wrote: »
    I am having trouble keeping track of it. She passes a no confidence vote, so they try to have another vote with a different group of people?
    If we could do that with the Brexit vote we could just limit it to Gibraltar and get an over 90% remain result.

    Democracy only counts when they want it to.

    Which they accuse us of, but do way more of it. (It's all projection etc etc)

    Jazz on
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    TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    I am having trouble keeping track of it. She passes a no confidence vote, so they try to have another vote with a different group of people?
    If we could do that with the Brexit vote we could just limit it to Gibraltar and get an over 90% remain result.

    MPs are divided enough being in Government that enough had confidence in her that she stayed on as leader. Party members who are not in government aren't happy so are looking to trigger that version of replacing the leadership.

    Of course the fun begins when the Party gets it's hard Brexit strongman (insanely Boris, probably - I doubt the Parliamentary Party is unified enough to go for someone like Hunt, even though if it goes to the Party they know it'll be Boris). He does something stupid and gets No Confidenced by Corbyn or the Tory MPs...

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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    It's like every level of the conservative party has to go through the process of trying to remove May, realising that changes none of the electoral math that stops no deal getting though parliament, then grudgingly accepting they need to keep her to get any Brexit at all. The high level Cabinet guys had to do it, then the parliamentary party, then the ERG faction, now we're all the way down to the grass roots councillor level.

    They all have to go through the process themselves before reality dawns on them. I suspect though this is where reality hits a brick wall, the grass roots of the Tory party is where some of the most frothing loons can be found.

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    V1mV1m Registered User regular
    In a small amount of good, non-Brexit news, Britain had it's longest ever break from coal power: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48015613

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    japanjapan Registered User regular


    (Times Scotland Editor)

    Here we
    Here we
    HWFG

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    KetBraKetBra Dressed Ridiculously Registered User regular
    You think they propose a referendum question contingent upon the uk leaving the EU? That might be the smart play.

    KGMvDLc.jpg?1
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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    Im predicting a damp squib here. It makes little sense for her to launch an independence play right now.

    Guess we shall see though!

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    japanjapan Registered User regular
    Casual wrote: »
    Im predicting a damp squib here. It makes little sense for her to launch an independence play right now.

    Guess we shall see though!

    My thinking is that there is very likely nothing she could say that isn't going to wind up the government

    In particular, any kind of setting out of conditions as to when they will call for an indyref is going to be interpreted as some kind of threat

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    FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    It's absolutely going to be "we voted stay because we were promised we would be in the EU", or words to that effect.

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    I think the Greens are great until you get too much deeper into their leadership than Caroline Lucas or ask her about homeopathy. They kind of feel like the pre-coalition Lib Dem’s in that people can project whatever they like on them because it’s not like they’ve got a record of government to look at.

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    BethrynBethryn Unhappiness is Mandatory Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    I think the Greens are great until you get too much deeper into their leadership than Caroline Lucas or ask her about homeopathy. They kind of feel like the pre-coalition Lib Dem’s in that people can project whatever they like on them because it’s not like they’ve got a record of government to look at.
    As fucked up as it is, I'll take a government that is prepared to take radical steps to limit climate change, even at the cost of homeopathy. But then they have no chance of getting in, so it's not like that particular choice matters.

    Neither the Tories nor Labour seem to be thinking in remotely the right ball park for this, especially while both are so pre-occupied with using Brexit for their own political bullshit.

    ...and of course, as always, Kill Hitler.
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    jothkijothki Registered User regular
    Is the situation anything like the one in the U.S., where a vote for the Green Party is effectively a vote for more environmental destruction?

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    TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    edited April 2019
    jothki wrote: »
    Is the situation anything like the one in the U.S., where a vote for the Green Party is effectively a vote for more environmental destruction?

    Not in the EU elections, where there is proportional representation and an alliance of green parties across the rest of europe who are part of a larger socialist alliance in the EU Parliament (so your vote counts, and you're sending someone to be part of a reasonable section within a larger voting bloc). Or in Brighton, which has a Green MP despite FPTP (or in Local Council elections depending on area, where you're more likely to have Green supporters clustered and it's the kind of level a Green politician can actually do some good with the powers they have).

    Tastyfish on
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    fedaykin666fedaykin666 Registered User regular
    edited April 2019
    Bogart wrote: »
    I think the Greens are great until you get too much deeper into their leadership than Caroline Lucas or ask her about homeopathy. They kind of feel like the pre-coalition Lib Dem’s in that people can project whatever they like on them because it’s not like they’ve got a record of government to look at.

    Jeremy Corbyn 5th March 2010 Twitter: " I believe that homeo-meds works for some ppl and that it compliments 'convential' meds. they both come from organic matter... "

    For me this was a red flag about Jeremy. I'm not saying leaders have to be experts on all subjects, but some basic ability to evaluate evidence or consult relevant experts seems quite a big deal. I was still broadly optimistic that "nice but dim" would be a massive improvement over the Tory horror show (just putting a horse or a bucket of dung instead of Cameron and May would leave us much better off without the active destruction element) , but my confidence in his thinking or ability to evaluate evidence has not increased since then.



    fedaykin666 on
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    Alistair HuttonAlistair Hutton Dr EdinburghRegistered User regular
    Casual wrote: »
    Im predicting a damp squib here. It makes little sense for her to launch an independence play right now.

    Guess we shall see though!

    Super damp squib. I don't get what she could possibly say that isn't just a restatement of her long held position.

    Until the form of Brexit is known we cannot know if she will go for IndyRef2.

    I have a thoughtful and infrequently updated blog about games http://whatithinkaboutwhenithinkaboutgames.wordpress.com/

    I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.

    Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
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    V1mV1m Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    I think the Greens are great until you get too much deeper into their leadership than Caroline Lucas or ask her about homeopathy. They kind of feel like the pre-coalition Lib Dem’s in that people can project whatever they like on them because it’s not like they’ve got a record of government to look at.

    Homeopathy or Bedroom tax. Hmmm?

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    V1mV1m Registered User regular
    Casual wrote: »
    Im predicting a damp squib here. It makes little sense for her to launch an independence play right now.

    Guess we shall see though!

    Super damp squib. I don't get what she could possibly say that isn't just a restatement of her long held position.

    Until the form of Brexit is known we cannot know if she will go for IndyRef2.

    Hypothetically, she might be trying to shape the brexit outcome

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    Alistair HuttonAlistair Hutton Dr EdinburghRegistered User regular
    V1m wrote: »
    Casual wrote: »
    Im predicting a damp squib here. It makes little sense for her to launch an independence play right now.

    Guess we shall see though!

    Super damp squib. I don't get what she could possibly say that isn't just a restatement of her long held position.

    Until the form of Brexit is known we cannot know if she will go for IndyRef2.

    Hypothetically, she might be trying to shape the brexit outcome

    She's at the limit of her ability to do that. "Big bang let's declare UDI right now" makes up a significant proportion of SNP activists and zero percent of the leadership.

    They are already pissed of the SNP is spending any time trying to shape Brexit and consider it a dangerous distraction to the goal of independence. There would be a serious risk of a split in the SNP and a new hard-Indy party being formed if they thought Sturgeon was angling for a soft Brexit to keep Scotland in the UK.

    I have a thoughtful and infrequently updated blog about games http://whatithinkaboutwhenithinkaboutgames.wordpress.com/

    I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.

    Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
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    EpiphanyEpiphany Registered User regular
    V1m wrote: »
    Casual wrote: »
    Im predicting a damp squib here. It makes little sense for her to launch an independence play right now.

    Guess we shall see though!

    Super damp squib. I don't get what she could possibly say that isn't just a restatement of her long held position.

    Until the form of Brexit is known we cannot know if she will go for IndyRef2.

    Hypothetically, she might be trying to shape the brexit outcome

    She's at the limit of her ability to do that. "Big bang let's declare UDI right now" makes up a significant proportion of SNP activists and zero percent of the leadership.

    They are already pissed of the SNP is spending any time trying to shape Brexit and consider it a dangerous distraction to the goal of independence. There would be a serious risk of a split in the SNP and a new hard-Indy party being formed if they thought Sturgeon was angling for a soft Brexit to keep Scotland in the UK.

    The only play left is to call an end to the current Scottish Parliament and have immediate elections for another pro-indy majority to pass another vote asking for permission to hold another indy ref. They already passed this vote in the current session, I can't imagine Scotland as a whole will enjoy getting dragged back to a ballot boxes every 2 years to vote for a new Holyrood so that Westminster ignores it again. Or you've got the whole court case up to the supreme court to decide if the people of Scotland are sovereign, which will be branded as nationalists in tinfoil hats, bearded men who believe they don't have to identify themselves to the police as they have learned that flags in courts face the wrong way and that national insurance numbers are slave identifiers etc.

    3DS Code- 4700-0094-6364
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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
    Trump is getting his state visit on June 3rd-5th. Oh joy.

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    BethrynBethryn Unhappiness is Mandatory Registered User regular
    Trump's dropping by to congratulate us on a successful Brexit in June. We've still got the balloon, right?

    ...and of course, as always, Kill Hitler.
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    surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular


    watching conservative mps posting things like this is quite... interesting

    obF2Wuw.png
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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    So that's a hint to May with the subtlety of a brick, right?

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    BethrynBethryn Unhappiness is Mandatory Registered User regular
    (order-order is under the wing of the guido fawkes network by notable piece of shit, Paul Staines)

    ...and of course, as always, Kill Hitler.
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    RMS OceanicRMS Oceanic Registered User regular
    Bethryn wrote: »
    (order-order is under the wing of the guido fawkes network by notable piece of shit, Paul Staines)

    I know that, I'm just a little uncertain, not knowing this MP, whether it's sarcasm or an endorsement of BXP/threat to May, and I'm guessing the latter.

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    BethrynBethryn Unhappiness is Mandatory Registered User regular
    It was more in case anyone didn't know the context. To the latter, it's an endorsement, Lucy Allan is a nitwit.

    ...and of course, as always, Kill Hitler.
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    AngelHedgieAngelHedgie Registered User regular
    V1m wrote: »
    In a small amount of good, non-Brexit news, Britain had it's longest ever break from coal power: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48015613

    They went a little over 90 hours:



    UK Coal is a Twitter account that reports on UK coal usage.

    XBL: Nox Aeternum / PSN: NoxAeternum / NN:NoxAeternum / Steam: noxaeternum
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    kaidkaid Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    I think the Greens are great until you get too much deeper into their leadership than Caroline Lucas or ask her about homeopathy. They kind of feel like the pre-coalition Lib Dem’s in that people can project whatever they like on them because it’s not like they’ve got a record of government to look at.

    Jeremy Corbyn 5th March 2010 Twitter: " I believe that homeo-meds works for some ppl and that it compliments 'convential' meds. they both come from organic matter... "

    For me this was a red flag about Jeremy. I'm not saying leaders have to be experts on all subjects, but some basic ability to evaluate evidence or consult relevant experts seems quite a big deal. I was still broadly optimistic that "nice but dim" would be a massive improvement over the Tory horror show (just putting a horse or a bucket of dung instead of Cameron and May would leave us much better off without the active destruction element) , but my confidence in his thinking or ability to evaluate evidence has not increased since then.



    As long as people are taking their correct conventional meds for treatments I don't have a ton of problem with homeo meds. Its basically the placebo effect but that is a real thing and if people believe something hard enough sometimes it actually can work for them as weird as that seems. Still with all the measles outbreaks I hope are a wake up call that there is serious consequences for disregarding known effective vaccines and treatments.

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    KetBraKetBra Dressed Ridiculously Registered User regular
    Sturgeon has announced the SNP will be introducing a piece of legislation for a new Scottish Independence referendum, to be held by 2021.

    KGMvDLc.jpg?1
This discussion has been closed.