Although it would be super super interesting if the model was accurate every time and there was massive rampant cheating but that would be like a Tom Clancy novel.
Pretty sure that's what happened though, based on my experience working elections here, publicly reported news, and things I've heard from a couple people in government (grain of salt though, they didn't save any evidence).
If not for Covid, the economy would be doing better, which would have persuaded the voters between the two parties that the Republicans knew what they were doing.
I mean I don’t have any particular problem with his (538/Silver) analysis of the polling data he was given to work with. There was clearly a problem with the input data in several states, though.
That’s what I’m interested in
Yeah I don't give 538 shit for their model. The basic idea is just fine. The problem with data modeling is shit input leads to shit output. No matter what the bigger question is why were so many state level polls off? Was it a methods issue? Was it how they built their weighting? Was it a response issue? Tons of things can screw up polling data like this. Hell could have just been how questions are asked.
Additionally did record breaking ActBlue fundraising actually do anything? Should we really be opening our accounts for nebulous money aggregators.
-sorry typing with gloves
Not sure it was ActBlue specifically, but I feel like the D establishment made some pretty stupid decisions in where it spent its money. I think I read that the McGrath campaign spent $70 million in Kentucky. That's just... stupid. Only heart disease or cancer is going to save us from Mitch McConnell.
The R ecosphere has a thousand ways they sucker their marks. I think, though, that we ought to consider if, on the blue side, the grift is small donor fundraising to target Rs we all really hate but aren't ever likely to beat. Some of that $70 million spent in KY sure might have helped with defending all the 2018 House pickups that the Ds just lost, or may with flipping some state leges to stave off another decade of gerrymandered Senate minorities. But hey, we all felt great hate-donating to unseat Myrtle the Turtle, and that's what important, right? I'm sure there's a whole class D election consultants that thinks so.
Throwing money at McGrath to maybe make McConnell sweat made sense in the universe where Biden won 350 electoral votes and we took 52 seats in the Senate and expanded our House margin. Dems are always getting shit for not putting up credible candidates in Every Last Race.
I also think a lot of the Dems who got stomped this time had ample funding. I know there was a lot of mention on 538 that money doesn't actually seem to have a strong causal effect on election outcomes.
It's possible that the McGrath money could've been better spent on other races. It's possible that it wouldn't have much mattered either way and maybe you should've just donated it to leftist charities or bought a PS5 or something.
We should have invested in ELECTION INFRASTRUCTURE and also ... maybe lots of virtual ad buys which Democrats seem to avoid more than the decrepit liches that run the GOP (how are we so dumb?????).
Thousands of ads from Joe Biden’s campaign have been blocked by Facebook as part of the social media giant’s pre-election blackout on new political ads, which the Biden camp said erroneously swept up ads that had already been approved to run.
Facebook is literally a force for evil across the globe and actively so at this point, given recent leaks we've had about algorithm changes and the like.
Honestly I think Covid/BLM energized alot of the Republican base. I can't tell you how many people I know who are just absolutely opposed to the shutdowns because of the economy (even liberals) or are afraid of some riots burning down their cities (ridiculous.) Selfishness and bigotry are powerful motivators, and with the media broadcasting how far ahead in mail in ballots Democrats were constantly that further motivated them. It's going to take a while to analyze this election, but it was definitely a mixed bag.
I mean I don’t have any particular problem with his (538/Silver) analysis of the polling data he was given to work with. There was clearly a problem with the input data in several states, though.
That’s what I’m interested in
Yeah I don't give 538 shit for their model. The basic idea is just fine. The problem with data modeling is shit input leads to shit output. No matter what the bigger question is why were so many state level polls off? Was it a methods issue? Was it how they built their weighting? Was it a response issue? Tons of things can screw up polling data like this. Hell could have just been how questions are asked.
Additionally did record breaking ActBlue fundraising actually do anything? Should we really be opening our accounts for nebulous money aggregators.
-sorry typing with gloves
Not sure it was ActBlue specifically, but I feel like the D establishment made some pretty stupid decisions in where it spent its money. I think I read that the McGrath campaign spent $70 million in Kentucky. That's just... stupid. Only heart disease or cancer is going to save us from Mitch McConnell.
The R ecosphere has a thousand ways they sucker their marks. I think, though, that we ought to consider if, on the blue side, the grift is small donor fundraising to target Rs we all really hate but aren't ever likely to beat. Some of that $70 million spent in KY sure might have helped with defending all the 2018 House pickups that the Ds just lost, or may with flipping some state leges to stave off another decade of gerrymandered Senate minorities. But hey, we all felt great hate-donating to unseat Myrtle the Turtle, and that's what important, right? I'm sure there's a whole class D election consultants that thinks so.
Throwing money at McGrath to maybe make McConnell sweat made sense in the universe where Biden won 350 electoral votes and we took 52 seats in the Senate and expanded our House margin. Dems are always getting shit for not putting up credible candidates in Every Last Race.
I also think a lot of the Dems who got stomped this time had ample funding. I know there was a lot of mention on 538 that money doesn't actually seem to have a strong causal effect on election outcomes.
It's possible that the McGrath money could've been better spent on other races. It's possible that it wouldn't have much mattered either way and maybe you should've just donated it to leftist charities or bought a PS5 or something.
We should have invested in ELECTION INFRASTRUCTURE and also ... maybe lots of virtual ad buys which Democrats seem to avoid more than the decrepit liches that run the GOP (how are we so dumb?????).
Thousands of ads from Joe Biden’s campaign have been blocked by Facebook as part of the social media giant’s pre-election blackout on new political ads, which the Biden camp said erroneously swept up ads that had already been approved to run.
Facebook is literally a force for evil across the globe and actively so at this point, given recent leaks we've had about algorithm changes and the like.
I also saw an article that said they charged biden double what they charged Trump. They had their thumb on the scale the whole time.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Too many people believe/have been persuaded that "the economy" = STONKS, and don't (or actively avoid) look(ing) at stats for unemployment, homelessness, etc.
I would say threatening the GOP isn't going to do anything, but enough people looking towards 2024 probably want Trump as a kingmaker that I can see them sucking up to him and helping him do terrible election skulduggery even as they know he is doomed
Too many people believe/have been persuaded that "the economy" = STONKS, and don't (or actively avoid) look(ing) at stats for unemployment, homelessness, etc.
3 states passed recreational marijuana this election.
Mexico is required by their Supreme Court to pass a new legalization law by December. Virtually the entire Western half of North America has legal weed now. By the end of this decade I can't imagine it being any different aside from places that are currently dry counties.
Personally I would describe them as pretty depressing in so many ways. The biggest thing being that it seems like Covid just did not fucking matter. A full third of people thought the economy was the biggest issue in the race and they broke 82-17 for Trump. Only 17% said covid mattered and they broke 82-14 for Biden. And if you break it down more (as they do in a different spot) it gets worse.
There's been talk about how Trump would have sailed away with this if not for Covid and I'm beginning to suspect that's entirely wrong. And that in fact the polling showing literally no movement in the race for like the entire year were correct.
Wait. Are the exit polls even applicable to mail in or early voters? That would skew the covid question a duck ton
+4
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KadokenGiving Ends to my Friends and it Feels StupendousRegistered Userregular
Can you guys using twitter give the messages in forum text for people at work or people like me who for some reason has twitter not showing up on the forums
Yeah like to sensible people covid is a disaster for trump, but we’ve always known that there are huge swaths of even moderate America that aren’t sensible. I think covid just drove engagement across the board and while many moderates and republicans who dislike trump or think he mishandled covid, they also likely think that Biden will shut down America, and are able to hold both contradictory understandings in their head at the same time without difficulty.
I’m trying to get through these last hours or days of uncertainty by consoling myself with the fact that I’m worried about a slim chance of some kind of insane miracle coming through for trump, but trump supporters are spending this time desperately hoping for a miracle with the slimmest odds ever. As bad as it is for us hopefully it’s excruciating for the die hards
Personally I would describe them as pretty depressing in so many ways. The biggest thing being that it seems like Covid just did not fucking matter. A full third of people thought the economy was the biggest issue in the race and they broke 82-17 for Trump. Only 17% said covid mattered and they broke 82-14 for Biden. And if you break it down more (as they do in a different spot) it gets worse.
There's been talk about how Trump would have sailed away with this if not for Covid and I'm beginning to suspect that's entirely wrong. And that in fact the polling showing literally no movement in the race for like the entire year were correct.
Wait. Are the exit polls even applicable to mail in or early voters? That would skew the covid question a duck ton
Yes. They might be total garbage though because of the unique nature of this election.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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Dr_KeenbeanDumb as a buttPlanet Express ShipRegistered Userregular
What are the odds we get our 3 party system out of this with a Trump party?
I would say someone call Vegas but I feel like they're busy.
Personally I would describe them as pretty depressing in so many ways. The biggest thing being that it seems like Covid just did not fucking matter. A full third of people thought the economy was the biggest issue in the race and they broke 82-17 for Trump. Only 17% said covid mattered and they broke 82-14 for Biden. And if you break it down more (as they do in a different spot) it gets worse.
There's been talk about how Trump would have sailed away with this if not for Covid and I'm beginning to suspect that's entirely wrong. And that in fact the polling showing literally no movement in the race for like the entire year were correct.
Wait. Are the exit polls even applicable to mail in or early voters? That would skew the covid question a duck ton
Yes. They use normal phone survey techniques to find them.
I think this makes a lot of sense, trump represents something immensely popular to republicans, even those that hate him superficially love what he’s saying deep down. But he also stirs immense hatred from the left and center left, and that has motivated people to specifically vote against a candidate in a way I don’t think we’ve seen in modern history, rather than voting for their own candidate. This was record turnout against an incumbent president first and foremost
Too many people believe/have been persuaded that "the economy" = STONKS, and don't (or actively avoid) look(ing) at stats for unemployment, homelessness, etc.
If you've got a pension tied to stocks and aren't in any immediate danger of losing your job, then I can see from a purely selfish reason why you'd care more about the stock market
But in that case it's less about "the economy is doing well" and more "I, personally, am doing well"
Too many people believe/have been persuaded that "the economy" = STONKS, and don't (or actively avoid) look(ing) at stats for unemployment, homelessness, etc.
If you've got a pension tied to stocks and aren't in any immediate danger of losing your job, then I can see from a purely selfish reason why you'd care more about the stock market
But in that case it's less about "the economy is doing well" and more "I, personally, am doing well"
For a lot of white males the economy just means “they didn’t take my money and give it to people I don’t like” even though they did take it and give it to the rich, they didn’t give it to brown people and that matters more than anything
I would say threatening the GOP isn't going to do anything, but enough people looking towards 2024 probably want Trump as a kingmaker that I can see them sucking up to him and helping him do terrible election skulduggery even as they know he is doomed
They’ll go through the motions and make some noises, which will do damage enough in its own right, but they won’t do anything specific or practical to help him
Personally I would describe them as pretty depressing in so many ways. The biggest thing being that it seems like Covid just did not fucking matter. A full third of people thought the economy was the biggest issue in the race and they broke 82-17 for Trump. Only 17% said covid mattered and they broke 82-14 for Biden. And if you break it down more (as they do in a different spot) it gets worse.
There's been talk about how Trump would have sailed away with this if not for Covid and I'm beginning to suspect that's entirely wrong. And that in fact the polling showing literally no movement in the race for like the entire year were correct.
Wait. Are the exit polls even applicable to mail in or early voters? That would skew the covid question a duck ton
Yes. They use normal phone survey techniques to find them.
There's a section on their website where they go through the methodology they used this year.
shryke on
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ShivahnUnaware of her barrel shifter privilegeWestern coastal temptressRegistered User, Moderatormod
I mean I don’t have any particular problem with his (538/Silver) analysis of the polling data he was given to work with. There was clearly a problem with the input data in several states, though.
That’s what I’m interested in
Yeah I don't give 538 shit for their model. The basic idea is just fine. The problem with data modeling is shit input leads to shit output. No matter what the bigger question is why were so many state level polls off? Was it a methods issue? Was it how they built their weighting? Was it a response issue? Tons of things can screw up polling data like this. Hell could have just been how questions are asked.
Additionally did record breaking ActBlue fundraising actually do anything? Should we really be opening our accounts for nebulous money aggregators.
-sorry typing with gloves
Not sure it was ActBlue specifically, but I feel like the D establishment made some pretty stupid decisions in where it spent its money. I think I read that the McGrath campaign spent $70 million in Kentucky. That's just... stupid. Only heart disease or cancer is going to save us from Mitch McConnell.
The R ecosphere has a thousand ways they sucker their marks. I think, though, that we ought to consider if, on the blue side, the grift is small donor fundraising to target Rs we all really hate but aren't ever likely to beat. Some of that $70 million spent in KY sure might have helped with defending all the 2018 House pickups that the Ds just lost, or may with flipping some state leges to stave off another decade of gerrymandered Senate minorities. But hey, we all felt great hate-donating to unseat Myrtle the Turtle, and that's what important, right? I'm sure there's a whole class D election consultants that thinks so.
Throwing money at McGrath to maybe make McConnell sweat made sense in the universe where Biden won 350 electoral votes and we took 52 seats in the Senate and expanded our House margin. Dems are always getting shit for not putting up credible candidates in Every Last Race.
I also think a lot of the Dems who got stomped this time had ample funding. I know there was a lot of mention on 538 that money doesn't actually seem to have a strong causal effect on election outcomes.
It's possible that the McGrath money could've been better spent on other races. It's possible that it wouldn't have much mattered either way and maybe you should've just donated it to leftist charities or bought a PS5 or something.
We should have invested in ELECTION INFRASTRUCTURE and also ... maybe lots of virtual ad buys which Democrats seem to avoid more than the decrepit liches that run the GOP (how are we so dumb?????).
Thousands of ads from Joe Biden’s campaign have been blocked by Facebook as part of the social media giant’s pre-election blackout on new political ads, which the Biden camp said erroneously swept up ads that had already been approved to run.
Facebook is literally a force for evil across the globe and actively so at this point, given recent leaks we've had about algorithm changes and the like.
What's a little genocide, conspiracy mongering, fascist enabling and democracy crushing between friends, especially when the stakes are as high as not being able to be as rich anymore because of antitrust lawsuits?
Personally I would describe them as pretty depressing in so many ways. The biggest thing being that it seems like Covid just did not fucking matter. A full third of people thought the economy was the biggest issue in the race and they broke 82-17 for Trump. Only 17% said covid mattered and they broke 82-14 for Biden. And if you break it down more (as they do in a different spot) it gets worse.
There's been talk about how Trump would have sailed away with this if not for Covid and I'm beginning to suspect that's entirely wrong. And that in fact the polling showing literally no movement in the race for like the entire year were correct.
That is backed up by the polls. They were amazingly steady from before the plague to the end of the election despite all the Covid stuff going on. Yeah, the polls were off, but the polling errors are probably more likely to be issues of sampling rather than being random.
The best thing for America’s future is for @realDonaldTrump to go to total war over this election to expose all of the fraud, cheating, dead/no longer in state voters, that has been going on for far too long.
It’s time to clean up this mess & stop looking like a banana republic!
Well, this is as frighteningly irresponsible as I would expect from a Trump
The deficit is down to 9500, with 39000 believed to be outstanding. That includes 17000 in a very blue county that doesn’t plan to count until tomorrow.
If what we believe is true, Biden wins Georgia by at least 10k votes, maybe 15k.
If there’s an oopsie and those ballots were already in the total or there’s a big bag of Election Day ballots from a red county someone forgot about, he might not get there, but that’s really the only thing to worry about.
The best thing for America’s future is for @realDonaldTrump to go to total war over this election to expose all of the fraud, cheating, dead/no longer in state voters, that has been going on for far too long.
It’s time to clean up this mess & stop looking like a banana republic!
Well, this is as frighteningly irresponsible as I would expect from a Trump
What are the odds we get our 3 party system out of this with a Trump party?
I would say someone call Vegas but I feel like they're busy.
Somebody mentioned it earlier but I don't think an actual GOP split could happen after this election. Even if they did separate into a sort of Trump party and a "moderate" party they would still be functionally the exact same thing because they've shown their goals to be more or less identical. They'd just team up on everything.
If I were a betting man I'd put the democratic party suffering a schism over this before the GOP. A lot of reps are walking away from a disappointing election with the realization they gotta centrist even fucking harder.
Erica Warner is the WaPo congressional reporter quoting Virginia Dem Rep Abigail Spanberger, who should be noted increased her vote count this election
Spanberger on the Dem caucus call: We lost races we shouldn’t have lost.
Defund police almost cost me my race bc of an attack ad.
Don’t say socialism ever again.
Need to get back to basics.
(Is yelling.)
The deficit is down to 9500, with 39000 believed to be outstanding. That includes 17000 in a very blue county that doesn’t plan to count until tomorrow.
If what we believe is true, Biden wins Georgia by at least 10k votes, maybe 15k.
If there’s an oopsie and those ballots were already in the total or there’s a big bag of Election Day ballots from a red county someone forgot about, he might not get there, but that’s really the only thing to worry about.
Chatam county, the one with 17k, dropped 6,305 votes at 5 EST, with biden taking 75.8% of those.
I'm assuming that was chatam because they said they would drop some at 5, and it's the only big one that has dropped in the past couple of hours.
Posts
Pretty sure that's what happened though, based on my experience working elections here, publicly reported news, and things I've heard from a couple people in government (grain of salt though, they didn't save any evidence).
Bill Nelson: The Russians have penetrated some Florida voter registration systems
Russians Hacked Voter Systems in 2 Florida Counties. But Which Ones?
3 states passed recreational marijuana this election.
This was literally a problem in the last week.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/biden-slams-facebook-ads-blocked-433645
Facebook is literally a force for evil across the globe and actively so at this point, given recent leaks we've had about algorithm changes and the like.
Biden is averaging in total of the mail ins at 72%.
Source: https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Actual vote remaining source (the github uses an inflated NY Times vote count, no idea where they're getting this number but the PA election board has a much lower number): https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx
I also saw an article that said they charged biden double what they charged Trump. They had their thumb on the scale the whole time.
pleasepaypreacher.net
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results
interesting one there
And me sitting here unable to enjoy it as I drive by a half dozen weed shops every day.
I would say threatening the GOP isn't going to do anything, but enough people looking towards 2024 probably want Trump as a kingmaker that I can see them sucking up to him and helping him do terrible election skulduggery even as they know he is doomed
This would lead to about +70k votes D on simple linear.
Including literally the president
EDIT: Oh, I see. It's vertical. Never mind me. *throws pocket sand*
Mexico is required by their Supreme Court to pass a new legalization law by December. Virtually the entire Western half of North America has legal weed now. By the end of this decade I can't imagine it being any different aside from places that are currently dry counties.
need I remind you math is dead
Wait. Are the exit polls even applicable to mail in or early voters? That would skew the covid question a duck ton
I’m trying to get through these last hours or days of uncertainty by consoling myself with the fact that I’m worried about a slim chance of some kind of insane miracle coming through for trump, but trump supporters are spending this time desperately hoping for a miracle with the slimmest odds ever. As bad as it is for us hopefully it’s excruciating for the die hards
Yes. They might be total garbage though because of the unique nature of this election.
I would say someone call Vegas but I feel like they're busy.
3DS: 1650-8480-6786
Switch: SW-0653-8208-4705
Yes. They use normal phone survey techniques to find them.
I think this makes a lot of sense, trump represents something immensely popular to republicans, even those that hate him superficially love what he’s saying deep down. But he also stirs immense hatred from the left and center left, and that has motivated people to specifically vote against a candidate in a way I don’t think we’ve seen in modern history, rather than voting for their own candidate. This was record turnout against an incumbent president first and foremost
If you've got a pension tied to stocks and aren't in any immediate danger of losing your job, then I can see from a purely selfish reason why you'd care more about the stock market
But in that case it's less about "the economy is doing well" and more "I, personally, am doing well"
For a lot of white males the economy just means “they didn’t take my money and give it to people I don’t like” even though they did take it and give it to the rich, they didn’t give it to brown people and that matters more than anything
Very dataisugly tho
They’ll go through the motions and make some noises, which will do damage enough in its own right, but they won’t do anything specific or practical to help him
There's a section on their website where they go through the methodology they used this year.
What's a little genocide, conspiracy mongering, fascist enabling and democracy crushing between friends, especially when the stakes are as high as not being able to be as rich anymore because of antitrust lawsuits?
That is backed up by the polls. They were amazingly steady from before the plague to the end of the election despite all the Covid stuff going on. Yeah, the polls were off, but the polling errors are probably more likely to be issues of sampling rather than being random.
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
again, i would not trust the votes remaining, but this is scraping the incoming vote data
Gap less than 10k, we think the outstanding mail vote should be enough for Biden to take the lead.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324474674521219073
The deficit is down to 9500, with 39000 believed to be outstanding. That includes 17000 in a very blue county that doesn’t plan to count until tomorrow.
If what we believe is true, Biden wins Georgia by at least 10k votes, maybe 15k.
If there’s an oopsie and those ballots were already in the total or there’s a big bag of Election Day ballots from a red county someone forgot about, he might not get there, but that’s really the only thing to worry about.
what a fucking bastard
Somebody mentioned it earlier but I don't think an actual GOP split could happen after this election. Even if they did separate into a sort of Trump party and a "moderate" party they would still be functionally the exact same thing because they've shown their goals to be more or less identical. They'd just team up on everything.
If I were a betting man I'd put the democratic party suffering a schism over this before the GOP. A lot of reps are walking away from a disappointing election with the realization they gotta centrist even fucking harder.
Case and point:
Erica Warner is the WaPo congressional reporter quoting Virginia Dem Rep Abigail Spanberger, who should be noted increased her vote count this election
...which tbf is basically what he's suggesting doing, so I guess he's not really wrong, in a way...
Chatam county, the one with 17k, dropped 6,305 votes at 5 EST, with biden taking 75.8% of those.
I'm assuming that was chatam because they said they would drop some at 5, and it's the only big one that has dropped in the past couple of hours.