The ruling is going to be appealed and will almost certainly have an injunction. Since the appeal will likely last beyond the two months left in the moratorium, it will be mooted before a judgement comes down.
I'm curious what the endgame is here, and I haven't seen any serious policy proposals discussing it. You can delay evictions, but without some kind of substantive (and politically unlikely) relief program, it's just delaying the inevitable. Even if those people find work as the economy recovers (big if), no one is coming up with 6-9 months back rent.
Easier to find a new place if you have a job and the pandemic is over. It's hard to think of a scenario where being kicked out now is not strictly worse than being kicked out in 3 months or whatever.
Edit: That's not to say that substantive relief programs wouldn't be incredibly valuable, because yeah they would, but even if we assume they aren't coming, it still helps to delay things.
Oh I agree that delaying things is better than nothing, but it still ends in eviction for a ton of people.
And most places I've ever lived have asked for a rental history. I don't know how many landlords are going to be willing to rent to someone who's 9 months delinquent and just got evicted.
The ruling is going to be appealed and will almost certainly have an injunction. Since the appeal will likely last beyond the two months left in the moratorium, it will be mooted before a judgement comes down.
I'm curious what the endgame is here, and I haven't seen any serious policy proposals discussing it. You can delay evictions, but without some kind of substantive (and politically unlikely) relief program, it's just delaying the inevitable. Even if those people find work as the economy recovers (big if), no one is coming up with 6-9 months back rent.
Easier to find a new place if you have a job and the pandemic is over. It's hard to think of a scenario where being kicked out now is not strictly worse than being kicked out in 3 months or whatever.
Edit: That's not to say that substantive relief programs wouldn't be incredibly valuable, because yeah they would, but even if we assume they aren't coming, it still helps to delay things.
Oh I agree that delaying things is better than nothing, but it still ends in eviction for a ton of people.
And most places I've ever lived have asked for a rental history. I don't know how many landlords are going to be willing to rent to someone who's 9 months delinquent and just got evicted.
Yep, but again it's still strictly better to be "Yeah I was 9 months delinquent while jobless during Covid, but now I've got a stable job and the pandemic is over" than, you know, "yeah I couldn't pay rent for 9 months and nothing has changed...."
I'd like to think a lot of landlords will take Covid into account as exceptional circumstances, but who knows.....
ChaosHatHop, hop, hop, HA!Trick of the lightRegistered Userregular
I mean the landlords are going to have to capitulate on it some too. Who will they be renting all these places to once they evict everyone? Probably the people the other landlords evicted already. In that case it probably behooves the landlord to just renew with the current tenants with some sort of long term pay back plan instead of spending all the time, effort, and money getting the place ready to resell to someone who probably really isn't that much better off.
So I’m gathering a big ol yikes with April (and even March, retro) jobs report
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AbsalonLands of Always WinterRegistered Userregular
8 million people did not lose the will to work and corporations have already gotten theirs. If a one-time measly 1400 dollars leaves you without people willing to work for you, you are a budget-ass businessperson offering gbudget-ass wages.
Oh looky, Montana and South Carolina are going to end the extended unemployment benefits early, come June. Because turning away free federal money and blaming the poor for not working hard enough is always the answer with these ghouls. I think more Republican states are likely to follow suit, they've been beating the drum that unemployment benefits are the bad guy pretty hard lately. SMH.
Oh looky, Montana and South Carolina are going to end the extended unemployment benefit early, come June. Because turning away free federal money and blame the poor for not working hard enough is always the answer with these ghouls. I think more Republican states are likely to follow suit, they've been beating the drum that unemployment benefits are bad pretty hard lately.
Because traditionally the way to bring voters to your side is to kick them while they're down.
Oh looky, Montana and South Carolina are going to end the extended unemployment benefit early, come June. Because turning away free federal money and blame the poor for not working hard enough is always the answer with these ghouls. I think more Republican states are likely to follow suit, they've been beating the drum that unemployment benefits are bad pretty hard lately.
Because traditionally the way to bring voters to your side is to kick them while they're down.
Maybe if they get kicked hard enough they will move to a different state or be in no condition to vote! A lot of these states are pairing this with antidemocratic legislation.
He's a shy overambitious dog-catcher on the wrong side of the law. She's an orphaned psychic mercenary with the power to bend men's minds. They fight crime!
Oh looky, Montana and South Carolina are going to end the extended unemployment benefit early, come June. Because turning away free federal money and blame the poor for not working hard enough is always the answer with these ghouls. I think more Republican states are likely to follow suit, they've been beating the drum that unemployment benefits are bad pretty hard lately.
Because traditionally the way to bring voters to your side is to kick them while they're down.
Maybe if they get kicked hard enough they will move to a different state or be in no condition to vote! A lot of these states are pairing this with antidemocratic legislation.
And now you know what the Kansas GOP has been using as the economic plank for the past 20 years.
All opinions are my own and in no way reflect that of my employer.
I'll wager the fucking republicans running both states likely wait till the middle of the month or 3 weeks in to end it because they know damn well that has very little to do with sluggish hiring. So if they end it around that time, they can then claim when the job numbers are garbage, that cutting that stuff had nothing to do with it, while then turning around in the following month and claiming that the policy change isn't to blame, if numbers are still shit.
Of course, if numbers look good, the dishonest fuckers will claim it was because they ended the program.
We need to round up all the republicans and rich fuckers that keep exploiting people to fill the pathetic void in their lives with more stuff and/or because they live to get off others suffering. Put them on a rocket and launch them out of this solar system. Hell, build the rocket on the cheap since they complain incessantly that too much money is being spend.
As I said early in the pandemic, there are a number of jobs that just aren't going to come back period. It's not a case of waiting for a business to get back on their feet or someone to take over the market share that was occupied by someone that went out of business because of the pandemic. There certainly are cases of both and that's a factor in the sluggish cloth because some of this shit is stuff that can't just be flipped back on the moment the pandemic ends. You'd think these fuckers would have realized after 2008, that they find few rubes that would buy that lie.
No, a big factor in the sluggish rebound is going to be that the pandemic likely accelerated a number of things getting automated. It create a scenario where jobs that were right on the cusp of being worth automating for employers became absolutely worth automating and once something gets automated, it's not going to get de-automated. Not unless the government passes something that forces that to happen, which is very unlikely regardless of whether such a thing is merited or not.
Another factor is that is has also probably caused a number of jobs that existed because either no one realized the position was useless or knew but it was too much effort to phase it out, to finally get axed. If the jobs had no real value, they just aren't going to be brought back after things get "better" because they had no value anymore; especially, with how profits are everything to business types these days.
Finally, there is the other issue where as stuff got cut down during the pandemic. Shitty employers likely started loading more work up on the people that they still had willing to work or that had no choice but to work because the US is really fucking shitty like that. If they felt things were working out well enough despite likely causing a number of their employees to burn out quicker. Then chances are pretty good they continue to do so; especially, if they can count on the return of the shitty normal giving them even more people that now have to work or be fucked over by a lack of finances.
To be honest, I'm think we're about to see a fair bit of unrest that will make some of the previous causes of unrest in this county during 2020 look like a fucking picnic and the right has done plenty to ensure it will go off badly. They are still fighting against social justice. Trying to make it harder for people to air their grievances and get things addressed at the ballot box. They are trying to make it so that landlords can evict people, people that I might add couldn't pay through no fault of their own. Giving people even less means to survive on top of all of all of that is a disaster waiting to happen. Also the GOP is pretty fucking dumb if they think they win this because a majority seems to be in agreement that their economic policies suck ass.
The Montana thing is just comical. They clearly have the money to give out, because they're going to give anyone that works a month a $1200 check. The governor might as well call it what it is - you will go work a low wage grinder job so that the state can subsidize businesses that want to pay low wages.
I know by brother, who runs a kitchen for a restaurant in western WA has had trouble filling basic slots. I think it also has a lot to do with things like child care not being available (kitchen/front of house staff don't exactly make great wages without big tips, and even then) and/or not wanting to go in just in case things get rolled back again. (Their county was on the verge of rolling back a phase, meaning going back to 25% max customer occupancy. Frankly it's about time that employers learn just how valuable their employees actually are.
The Montana thing is just comical. They clearly have the money to give out, because they're going to give anyone that works a month a $1200 check. The governor might as well call it what it is - you will go work a low wage grinder job so that the state can subsidize businesses that want to play low wages.
They are stealing $3,000 from the unemployed in order to give them back $1,200 and demand gratitude for it. Assuming they don't renege on the $1,200 promise on a technicality.
The Montana thing is just comical. They clearly have the money to give out, because they're going to give anyone that works a month a $1200 check. The governor might as well call it what it is - you will go work a low wage grinder job so that the state can subsidize businesses that want to play low wages.
They are stealing $3,000 from the unemployed in order to give them back $1,200 and demand gratitude for it. Assuming they don't renege on the $1,200 promise on a technicality.
Which, if they do, would be well within Gianforte's mileau.
The biggest takeaway for me is that the government is not REALLY in control of inflation. The most important factor in inflation might really be just how much the people and business owners and consumers THINK that there is and will be inflation. If the populace believes that next year prices will be higher, then they'll buy something right now. They'll ask for a raise right now. Their bosses will give them that raise because they also believe prices are going up and will raise the prices on their goods, and this trend just continues to reinforce itself.
That the way people fight inflation, is partially by managing to convince people that there won't be high inflation anymore.
All the bemoaning of inflation that arises with spending and increasing wages gets a solid eye roll from me since massive job loss that far outweighs the current gains never even receives a hint of deflation talk.
All the bemoaning of inflation that arises with spending and increasing wages gets a solid eye roll from me since massive job loss that far outweighs the current gains never even receives a hint of deflation talk.
But then I am not an economist.
The deflationary power of the job loss so far has been heavily blunted by expanded UI benefits plus stimulus checks that have basically prevented it beyond the massive dip in inflation last year during the first lock down.
Also at the same time we have had sub 2% inflation for almost a decade. Inflation as a boogey man is a big thing because if it does get out of control it can crack the economy. This isn't that. A single month isn't a trend. If this goes 4-6 months I will worry but by then expanded UI will end and there is a better chance you see an increase participation in the work force and probably pressure from unemployment as the expanded UI runs out.
All the bemoaning of inflation that arises with spending and increasing wages gets a solid eye roll from me since massive job loss that far outweighs the current gains never even receives a hint of deflation talk.
But then I am not an economist.
Bemoaning inflation also gets a solid eye roll from me and I am an economist.
That being said, planet money is... wrong if they say that inflation is not controlled by the govt. there are instances where it can be hard to control* but just because you didn’t push a lever hard enough doesn’t mean the lever doesn’t work.
*ok and instances where it is impossible but these instances are not places we are currently in
Edit: more or less you can control inflation by controlling the money supply. But at the upper and lower bounds (which to be fair we don’t exactly know where that is) inflation is a self reinforcing phenomena because price changes influence money velocity and money velocity changes influences price changes. And as a result these changes aren’t very precise. If you add x% dollars there is no guarantee you get y% inflation. But this doesn’t matter because within our reasonable bounds we can always look at inflation in the last period, and our monetary operation in our last period and say “do more for to increase and do less for to decrease”. We might not be able to target 4% inflation tomorrow but we can probably hit 4% next year pretty easily. So within a reasonable bound the Govt can and has spurred and tamped inflation.
Is all that magical money that people keep making with Bitcoin and Dogecoin etc going to do anything to real inflation?
Only if there aren’t any people losing money to it, which is assuredly not the case.
I think if there were some measurable amount of purchases being made with cryptocurrency which weren't immediately converted to dollars, if it was actual money, it would increase the money supply(tending to cause inflation) based on it's increase in value, but that's not the case.
All interactions made with cryptocurrency are effectively made with dollar.
A small, admittedly dumb, part of me wishes there was more rate volatility so the get-rich-quickers could try to make their money gambling on that instead of bitcoin or other stupid rent-seeking bullshit
The biggest takeaway for me is that the government is not REALLY in control of inflation. The most important factor in inflation might really be just how much the people and business owners and consumers THINK that there is and will be inflation. If the populace believes that next year prices will be higher, then they'll buy something right now. They'll ask for a raise right now. Their bosses will give them that raise because they also believe prices are going up and will raise the prices on their goods, and this trend just continues to reinforce itself.
That the way people fight inflation, is partially by managing to convince people that there won't be high inflation anymore.
That bit is mostly not actually happening. Bosses are just keeping more profits, causing people not to be able to afford things as opposed to their debt just having less value.
The biggest takeaway for me is that the government is not REALLY in control of inflation. The most important factor in inflation might really be just how much the people and business owners and consumers THINK that there is and will be inflation. If the populace believes that next year prices will be higher, then they'll buy something right now. They'll ask for a raise right now. Their bosses will give them that raise because they also believe prices are going up and will raise the prices on their goods, and this trend just continues to reinforce itself.
That the way people fight inflation, is partially by managing to convince people that there won't be high inflation anymore.
That bit is mostly not actually happening. Bosses are just keeping more profits, causing people not to be able to afford things as opposed to their debt just having less value.
True. But the planet money episodes were both talking about what was happening in a period of sustained 8-10 percent inflation and how people act and plan in it. We haven't had much inflation at all for a long time. But maybe that'll change soon?
News media talks about inflation as an insatiable monster because news media owners and editors are old enough to have lived through the 70's-80's Stagflation and never managed to mentally get over it. We are still fighting the political battles of the 60's for a similar reason.
Pretty soon the Boomers are going to be forced out of positions of power and we can move on from those tired fights from half a century ago. And start arguing about who was right in the 90's and aughts.
Pretty soon the Boomers are going to be forced out of positions of power and we can move on from those tires fights from half a century ago. And start arguing about who was right in the 90's.
Not until they're carried out, stiff and cold.
(And even then, they'll still find a way to keep fucking us all from beyond the grave. Somehow.)
From what I've read it sounds like the real answer is that we don't know right now. Recovery in demand has out-paced supply, and there are resource shortages in some areas. There are also technical reasons for getting a spike this month. So this could just be a temporary blip that doesn't translate to a real increase in inflation.
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AegisFear My DanceOvershot Toronto, Landed in OttawaRegistered Userregular
A large chunk of the uptick in inflation was also due to Hotels and Used Cars.
I might add that not too long ago we might have been in a situation that we could not perfectly control inflation. But this was the global financial crisis of 2008 and the following Great Recession. In this situation inflation was too low and we had a hard time increasing it because the lever that we normally use (interest rates) had hit the zero nominal bound. (Interest rates go down inflation goes up in general)
I know this is probably more related to coins and china but, it's pretty funny to watch the market tank exactly 4 months after republicans are out of office.
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Oh I agree that delaying things is better than nothing, but it still ends in eviction for a ton of people.
And most places I've ever lived have asked for a rental history. I don't know how many landlords are going to be willing to rent to someone who's 9 months delinquent and just got evicted.
Yep, but again it's still strictly better to be "Yeah I was 9 months delinquent while jobless during Covid, but now I've got a stable job and the pandemic is over" than, you know, "yeah I couldn't pay rent for 9 months and nothing has changed...."
I'd like to think a lot of landlords will take Covid into account as exceptional circumstances, but who knows.....
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The pandemic still isn't over. Economic statistics are still repackaged public health statistics.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/jobs-report-april-2021.html
Oh looky, Montana and South Carolina are going to end the extended unemployment benefits early, come June. Because turning away free federal money and blaming the poor for not working hard enough is always the answer with these ghouls. I think more Republican states are likely to follow suit, they've been beating the drum that unemployment benefits are the bad guy pretty hard lately. SMH.
Because traditionally the way to bring voters to your side is to kick them while they're down.
Maybe if they get kicked hard enough they will move to a different state or be in no condition to vote! A lot of these states are pairing this with antidemocratic legislation.
And now you know what the Kansas GOP has been using as the economic plank for the past 20 years.
Of course, if numbers look good, the dishonest fuckers will claim it was because they ended the program.
We need to round up all the republicans and rich fuckers that keep exploiting people to fill the pathetic void in their lives with more stuff and/or because they live to get off others suffering. Put them on a rocket and launch them out of this solar system. Hell, build the rocket on the cheap since they complain incessantly that too much money is being spend.
As I said early in the pandemic, there are a number of jobs that just aren't going to come back period. It's not a case of waiting for a business to get back on their feet or someone to take over the market share that was occupied by someone that went out of business because of the pandemic. There certainly are cases of both and that's a factor in the sluggish cloth because some of this shit is stuff that can't just be flipped back on the moment the pandemic ends. You'd think these fuckers would have realized after 2008, that they find few rubes that would buy that lie.
No, a big factor in the sluggish rebound is going to be that the pandemic likely accelerated a number of things getting automated. It create a scenario where jobs that were right on the cusp of being worth automating for employers became absolutely worth automating and once something gets automated, it's not going to get de-automated. Not unless the government passes something that forces that to happen, which is very unlikely regardless of whether such a thing is merited or not.
Another factor is that is has also probably caused a number of jobs that existed because either no one realized the position was useless or knew but it was too much effort to phase it out, to finally get axed. If the jobs had no real value, they just aren't going to be brought back after things get "better" because they had no value anymore; especially, with how profits are everything to business types these days.
Finally, there is the other issue where as stuff got cut down during the pandemic. Shitty employers likely started loading more work up on the people that they still had willing to work or that had no choice but to work because the US is really fucking shitty like that. If they felt things were working out well enough despite likely causing a number of their employees to burn out quicker. Then chances are pretty good they continue to do so; especially, if they can count on the return of the shitty normal giving them even more people that now have to work or be fucked over by a lack of finances.
To be honest, I'm think we're about to see a fair bit of unrest that will make some of the previous causes of unrest in this county during 2020 look like a fucking picnic and the right has done plenty to ensure it will go off badly. They are still fighting against social justice. Trying to make it harder for people to air their grievances and get things addressed at the ballot box. They are trying to make it so that landlords can evict people, people that I might add couldn't pay through no fault of their own. Giving people even less means to survive on top of all of all of that is a disaster waiting to happen. Also the GOP is pretty fucking dumb if they think they win this because a majority seems to be in agreement that their economic policies suck ass.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
They are stealing $3,000 from the unemployed in order to give them back $1,200 and demand gratitude for it. Assuming they don't renege on the $1,200 promise on a technicality.
Which, if they do, would be well within Gianforte's mileau.
It's a statistical artifact of inflation cratering 12 months ago when it was illegal to go outside.
Plus pumping several $trillion into the economy as a one-off. It'll go away on its own in a few months.
4% is compared to last April. Which is probably not the best baseline. Inflation has also been below target for a while.
No more than Beanie Babies did in the 90's. Since that's basically what Bitcoin is. Cyberpunk beanie babies.
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Only if there aren’t any people losing money to it, which is assuredly not the case.
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Their production also didn't require as much ongoing pollution as the country of New Zealand. Another way they are superior.
There are two great episodes on inflation on planet money that I learned a lot from:
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/11/20/456855788/episode-664-the-great-inflation
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/11/30/672366380/episode-879-the-secret-target
The biggest takeaway for me is that the government is not REALLY in control of inflation. The most important factor in inflation might really be just how much the people and business owners and consumers THINK that there is and will be inflation. If the populace believes that next year prices will be higher, then they'll buy something right now. They'll ask for a raise right now. Their bosses will give them that raise because they also believe prices are going up and will raise the prices on their goods, and this trend just continues to reinforce itself.
That the way people fight inflation, is partially by managing to convince people that there won't be high inflation anymore.
But then I am not an economist.
The deflationary power of the job loss so far has been heavily blunted by expanded UI benefits plus stimulus checks that have basically prevented it beyond the massive dip in inflation last year during the first lock down.
Also at the same time we have had sub 2% inflation for almost a decade. Inflation as a boogey man is a big thing because if it does get out of control it can crack the economy. This isn't that. A single month isn't a trend. If this goes 4-6 months I will worry but by then expanded UI will end and there is a better chance you see an increase participation in the work force and probably pressure from unemployment as the expanded UI runs out.
Bemoaning inflation also gets a solid eye roll from me and I am an economist.
That being said, planet money is... wrong if they say that inflation is not controlled by the govt. there are instances where it can be hard to control* but just because you didn’t push a lever hard enough doesn’t mean the lever doesn’t work.
*ok and instances where it is impossible but these instances are not places we are currently in
Edit: more or less you can control inflation by controlling the money supply. But at the upper and lower bounds (which to be fair we don’t exactly know where that is) inflation is a self reinforcing phenomena because price changes influence money velocity and money velocity changes influences price changes. And as a result these changes aren’t very precise. If you add x% dollars there is no guarantee you get y% inflation. But this doesn’t matter because within our reasonable bounds we can always look at inflation in the last period, and our monetary operation in our last period and say “do more for to increase and do less for to decrease”. We might not be able to target 4% inflation tomorrow but we can probably hit 4% next year pretty easily. So within a reasonable bound the Govt can and has spurred and tamped inflation.
I think if there were some measurable amount of purchases being made with cryptocurrency which weren't immediately converted to dollars, if it was actual money, it would increase the money supply(tending to cause inflation) based on it's increase in value, but that's not the case.
All interactions made with cryptocurrency are effectively made with dollar.
That bit is mostly not actually happening. Bosses are just keeping more profits, causing people not to be able to afford things as opposed to their debt just having less value.
True. But the planet money episodes were both talking about what was happening in a period of sustained 8-10 percent inflation and how people act and plan in it. We haven't had much inflation at all for a long time. But maybe that'll change soon?
Pretty soon the Boomers are going to be forced out of positions of power and we can move on from those tired fights from half a century ago. And start arguing about who was right in the 90's and aughts.
Not until they're carried out, stiff and cold.
(And even then, they'll still find a way to keep fucking us all from beyond the grave. Somehow.)
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The pipeline hack will probably cause a blip in next month's numbers, too.
Tesla though seems to be leading the losses at almost a 4% dip.