Options

The Novel Novel [Coronavirus] Discussion Thread

12021232526101

Posts

  • Options
    dispatch.odispatch.o Registered User regular
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Wait, what is pooled time off? You get X days holiday a year but have to take sick days as holiday, or you've got an office pool of sick days to take?

    The former. It's the same type of pto I get through my job.

    It's crappy over the alternative (take time as you need when sick, have enough vacation days that you are free to use otherwise) but it works for me. The idea is that the total grant of paid time off is larger because it also covers some expectation of sick days, when I'm one who doesn't often get sick it gives me a good amount of time off to use as I want. This isn't to say it's a good system for society or a workforce in aggregate, because it isn't.

    It specifically was implemented because it reduces total time off and convinces young people that they get more vacation. Then they get older and need a procedure with a recovery time and get fucked.

    I've worn a mask for 15 years all day every day at work. I'm going to keep wearing one when I go shopping indefinitely.

    There's no good reason not to.

  • Options
    destroyah87destroyah87 They/Them Preferred: She/Her - Please UseRegistered User regular
    dispatch.o wrote: »
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Wait, what is pooled time off? You get X days holiday a year but have to take sick days as holiday, or you've got an office pool of sick days to take?

    The former. It's the same type of pto I get through my job.

    It's crappy over the alternative (take time as you need when sick, have enough vacation days that you are free to use otherwise) but it works for me. The idea is that the total grant of paid time off is larger because it also covers some expectation of sick days, when I'm one who doesn't often get sick it gives me a good amount of time off to use as I want. This isn't to say it's a good system for society or a workforce in aggregate, because it isn't.

    It specifically was implemented because it reduces total time off and convinces young people that they get more vacation. Then they get older and need a procedure with a recovery time and get fucked.

    I've worn a mask for 15 years all day every day at work. I'm going to keep wearing one when I go shopping indefinitely.

    There's no good reason not to.

    100%, that's the exact purpose and result of the system.

    steam_sig.png
  • Options
    AphostileAphostile San Francisco, CARegistered User regular
    edited July 2021
    Pfizer vaccine is becoming less effective at preventing infection, though still doing well at preventing severe cases. News out of Israel indicates that Delta is having a big impact.
    The protection conferred by Pfizer Inc.’s vaccine against mild forms of Covid-19 appeared to wane after a few weeks in data garnered in Israel as the delta variant took hold, although the shot continued to shield users against severe illness.

    The vaccine developed with BioNTech SE protected 64% of receivers against the illness between June 6 and early July as the government lifted restrictions, down from 94% between May 2 and June 5, the Ynet news website reported, citing Health Ministry numbers.

    Whichever variant emerges from Delta is likely to bring that efficacy down further.

    Apparently this Israeli study isn't great. Lots of unaccounted for biases. TL;DR the data for June are heavily skewed and the model applied allows for a ton of confounders. It looks like there’s very good reason to be skeptical.



    Twitter user is Uri Shalit, a causal inference data scientist in healthcare / asst professor at Technion.

    Aphostile on
    Nothing. Matters.
  • Options
    38thDoe38thDoe lets never be stupid again wait lets always be stupid foreverRegistered User regular
    edited July 2021
    SniperGuy wrote: »
    We're working on planning family Christmas and hoping to have my wife's family come visit us in the new house. However, we have a newborn and so we're requiring everyone to be vaccinated. Wife's step dad is pretty staunchly anti covid vaccine and wife's mom may have trouble coming if he can't come. Some of her family are like "well what if he stays inside for two weeks first?" and that doesn't help since he has to travel via plane to get here!

    Anyone else in this situation? Wife is feeling kind of sad about it but we're both adamant that this is his fault for refusing to get vaccinated, not ours for asking everyone to be safe, especially around our newborn baby.

    Yes, my brother in law had a baby with his girlfriend. He is pretty easy going but has been vaccinated for everything, she thinks vaccines cause lupus which even looking for crazy conspiracies I can't find on google. Since he is easy going he went along with her crazy. So the baby isn't vaccinated against anything, and the parents aren't getting the COVID vaccine until its proven not to cause lupus or whatever. We have two kids under twelve so they can't get the vaccine and we don't want them around unvaccinated people.

    My wife was very close to her brother and it is killing her not to be able to see her niece, not to be able to plan on having holidays together. My wife tried to talk it over with the girlfriend on the phone but she got accused of gatekeeping the family from them and was very hurt that people reacted so negatively to her choice not to get vaccinated. When your choice causes others to get hurt or die I think a negative reaction to your "choice" is reasonable. I hate seeing my wife in this position. My in laws all see her as an a trouble maker for not accepting the girlfriends choice.

    38thDoe on
    38thDoE on steam
    🦀🦑🦀🦑🦀🦑🦀🦑🦀🦑🦀🦑🦀
    
  • Options
    ToxTox I kill threads he/himRegistered User regular
    Aphostile wrote: »
    Pfizer vaccine is becoming less effective at preventing infection, though still doing well at preventing severe cases. News out of Israel indicates that Delta is having a big impact.
    The protection conferred by Pfizer Inc.’s vaccine against mild forms of Covid-19 appeared to wane after a few weeks in data garnered in Israel as the delta variant took hold, although the shot continued to shield users against severe illness.

    The vaccine developed with BioNTech SE protected 64% of receivers against the illness between June 6 and early July as the government lifted restrictions, down from 94% between May 2 and June 5, the Ynet news website reported, citing Health Ministry numbers.

    Whichever variant emerges from Delta is likely to bring that efficacy down further.

    Apparently this Israeli study isn't great. Lots of unaccounted for biases. TL;DR the data for June are heavily skewed and the model applied allows for a ton of confounders. It looks like there’s very good reason to be skeptical.



    Twitter user is Uri Shalit, a causal inference data scientist in healthcare / asst professor at Technion.

    What are they saying?

    And also ...

    ...what are they saying, in small words?

    Twitter! | Dilige, et quod vis fac
  • Options
    OrcaOrca Also known as Espressosaurus WrexRegistered User regular
    Tox wrote: »
    Aphostile wrote: »
    Pfizer vaccine is becoming less effective at preventing infection, though still doing well at preventing severe cases. News out of Israel indicates that Delta is having a big impact.
    The protection conferred by Pfizer Inc.’s vaccine against mild forms of Covid-19 appeared to wane after a few weeks in data garnered in Israel as the delta variant took hold, although the shot continued to shield users against severe illness.

    The vaccine developed with BioNTech SE protected 64% of receivers against the illness between June 6 and early July as the government lifted restrictions, down from 94% between May 2 and June 5, the Ynet news website reported, citing Health Ministry numbers.

    Whichever variant emerges from Delta is likely to bring that efficacy down further.

    Apparently this Israeli study isn't great. Lots of unaccounted for biases. TL;DR the data for June are heavily skewed and the model applied allows for a ton of confounders. It looks like there’s very good reason to be skeptical.



    Twitter user is Uri Shalit, a causal inference data scientist in healthcare / asst professor at Technion.

    What are they saying?

    And also ...

    ...what are they saying, in small words?

    It looks like they're saying the study is bad, nobody really knows the impact, and they expect delta to be much less impactful than the study suggests? I think?

    I'm just an idiot on the internet.

  • Options
    AphostileAphostile San Francisco, CARegistered User regular
    Tox wrote: »
    Aphostile wrote: »
    Pfizer vaccine is becoming less effective at preventing infection, though still doing well at preventing severe cases. News out of Israel indicates that Delta is having a big impact.
    The protection conferred by Pfizer Inc.’s vaccine against mild forms of Covid-19 appeared to wane after a few weeks in data garnered in Israel as the delta variant took hold, although the shot continued to shield users against severe illness.

    The vaccine developed with BioNTech SE protected 64% of receivers against the illness between June 6 and early July as the government lifted restrictions, down from 94% between May 2 and June 5, the Ynet news website reported, citing Health Ministry numbers.

    Whichever variant emerges from Delta is likely to bring that efficacy down further.

    Apparently this Israeli study isn't great. Lots of unaccounted for biases. TL;DR the data for June are heavily skewed and the model applied allows for a ton of confounders. It looks like there’s very good reason to be skeptical.



    Twitter user is Uri Shalit, a causal inference data scientist in healthcare / asst professor at Technion.

    What are they saying?

    And also ...

    ...what are they saying, in small words?

    Skewed/biased samples that don’t represent a normal population, essentially.

    It’s tough to reconcile against the UK’s data, as well.

    Nothing. Matters.
  • Options
    ToxTox I kill threads he/himRegistered User regular
    Orca wrote: »
    I'm just an idiot on the internet.

    Uhm excuse me this is not a scientifically supported claim, being posted in the Covid thread. No wild speculations! :P

    Twitter! | Dilige, et quod vis fac
  • Options
    HydropoloHydropolo Registered User regular
    SniperGuy wrote: »
    We're working on planning family Christmas and hoping to have my wife's family come visit us in the new house. However, we have a newborn and so we're requiring everyone to be vaccinated. Wife's step dad is pretty staunchly anti covid vaccine and wife's mom may have trouble coming if he can't come. Some of her family are like "well what if he stays inside for two weeks first?" and that doesn't help since he has to travel via plane to get here!

    Anyone else in this situation? Wife is feeling kind of sad about it but we're both adamant that this is his fault for refusing to get vaccinated, not ours for asking everyone to be safe, especially around our newborn baby.

    Fuck em. Seriously. Fuck em. If I have learned one thing in 40+ years, people's actions tell you who they are, or at least who they want to be. You want to protect your kid, good on you. Tell your step dad if he wants to come, he needs to come down, and spend 15 days in isolation AFTER flying to be able to see the kid or at least 5-7 days with multiple negative tests. Every time someone gives into people about this, its one more nail in the "See, I told you it wasn't that bad" coffin of our ability to function as a society.

  • Options
    GilgaronGilgaron Registered User regular
    38thDoe wrote: »
    SniperGuy wrote: »
    We're working on planning family Christmas and hoping to have my wife's family come visit us in the new house. However, we have a newborn and so we're requiring everyone to be vaccinated. Wife's step dad is pretty staunchly anti covid vaccine and wife's mom may have trouble coming if he can't come. Some of her family are like "well what if he stays inside for two weeks first?" and that doesn't help since he has to travel via plane to get here!

    Anyone else in this situation? Wife is feeling kind of sad about it but we're both adamant that this is his fault for refusing to get vaccinated, not ours for asking everyone to be safe, especially around our newborn baby.

    Yes, my brother in law had a baby with his girlfriend. He is pretty easy going but has been vaccinated for everything, she thinks vaccines cause lupus which even looking for crazy conspiracies I can't find on google. Since he is easy going he went along with her crazy. So the baby isn't vaccinated against anything, and the parents aren't getting the COVID vaccine until its proven not to cause lupus or whatever. We have two kids under twelve so they can't get the vaccine and we don't want them around unvaccinated people.

    My wife was very close to her brother and it is killing her not to be able to see her niece, not to be able to plan on having holidays together. My wife tried to talk it over with the girlfriend on the phone but she got accused of gatekeeping the family from them and was very hurt that people reacted so negatively to her choice not to get vaccinated. When your choice causes others to get hurt or die I think a negative reaction to your "choice" is reasonable. I hate seeing my wife in this position. My in laws all see her as an a trouble maker for not accepting the girlfriends choice.

    When either of our children were newborns we enforced getting flu shots and while there were a few relatives that don't get it regularly, they all relented. You don't need to honor their choice to decide it is ok to drive drunk with your baby in the car.

  • Options
    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    On a lighter note, vaccine promotion continues


    (Juvenile releasing a variation on "back that thang up" called vaxx that thing up)

    "No vaxxing no vucking"

    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
  • Options
    CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    Well, double dosed now. Moderna chaser to Astra Zeneca first dose.

    :so_raven:
  • Options
    JeanJean Heartbroken papa bear Gatineau, QuébecRegistered User regular
    Corvus wrote: »
    Well, double dosed now. Moderna chaser to Astra Zeneca first dose.

    Congrats! Any side effects?

    "You won't destroy us, You won't destroy our democracy. We are a small but proud nation. No one can bomb us to silence. No one can scare us from being Norway. This evening and tonight, we'll take care of each other. That's what we do best when attacked'' - Jens Stoltenberg
  • Options
    BurtletoyBurtletoy Registered User regular
    I guess my work trip to India to help make the j&j vaccine is probably back on, now that cases in India have dropped significantly.

    I'm gonna eat sooo much biryani, you guys

  • Options
    TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    Got lockjaw after my first, felt something was off around my jaw a day or two afterwards but only really realised what was up when I tried to eat a banana and I couldn't open my mouth wide enough*.
    So really no idea what'll happen with the second dose in a week or so.

    Also Cambridge in the UK has a walk in vaccination centre opening up, anyone can get first or second dose (if 8 weeks+) without booking now.

    *yes, end first. Not sideways!

  • Options
    CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    Jean wrote: »
    Corvus wrote: »
    Well, double dosed now. Moderna chaser to Astra Zeneca first dose.

    Congrats! Any side effects?

    So far just a bit of tiredness and some minor arm soreness. With my first AZ shot I got my most significant side effects at the end of the day before bed.

    :so_raven:
  • Options
    ThawmusThawmus +Jackface Registered User regular
    So my wife started her new job at the local VA hospital this week, and today, her 3rd day on the job, they've now required all staff to start wearing their protective masks again rather than cloth masks, because the Delta variant has been detected in our town.

    So that's real swell. Oh, America. :tell_me_more:

    Twitch: Thawmus83
  • Options
    chosenofsotekchosenofsotek Registered User regular
    So, I have a question for people much more knowledgeable on what's going on with COVID and the variants than I am. I've mentioned this before, but my mom still has not gotten a vaccine and no one she lives with has either. She is afraid the vaccine will cause her to go into shock (which she has a history of) and still has not gotten the shot, despite working in the public school system of a very red county in a very red state. She is wanting to visit me and my girlfriend when her school system goes on Fall break, which would be the first time we will see each other in a year+. My girlfriend and I are both vaccinated, but I work in a place with people that never took the pandemic seriously and I'm afraid many may be lying about their vaccination status. Would I be going way overboard by telling my mom she can't come visit us unless she gets vaccinated? It's what I'm leaning towards, but I'd just like some confirmation it is the right course of action. Or if not, be told I'm being way too cautious.

  • Options
    Kane Red RobeKane Red Robe Master of Magic ArcanusRegistered User regular
    People who are not vaccinated should not travel if they can avoid it. I don't think you are being too cautious.

  • Options
    Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Shock or anaphylaxis? One would be very uncommon, the other isn't uncommon in people with bad allergies to an ingredient. If she's traveling and not vaccinated she's still going to be at high risk to catch it. Then you'll have a low to decent risk of catching it if you're around her at close proximity for a few days, depending on which variant she picks up. You're safer in that situation than she is, put "No, you're not going to get the chance to make me sick, and even if I don't get it a visit with you being sick the whole time would be miserable" is not unreasonable.

  • Options
    chosenofsotekchosenofsotek Registered User regular
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    Shock or anaphylaxis? One would be very uncommon, the other isn't uncommon in people with bad allergies to an ingredient. If she's traveling and not vaccinated she's still going to be at high risk to catch it. Then you'll have a low to decent risk of catching it if you're around her at close proximity for a few days, depending on which variant she picks up. You're safer in that situation than she is, put "No, you're not going to get the chance to make me sick, and even if I don't get it a visit with you being sick the whole time would be miserable" is not unreasonable.

    Anaphylaxis. Sorry, should have been more clear.

  • Options
    GilgaronGilgaron Registered User regular
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    Shock or anaphylaxis? One would be very uncommon, the other isn't uncommon in people with bad allergies to an ingredient. If she's traveling and not vaccinated she's still going to be at high risk to catch it. Then you'll have a low to decent risk of catching it if you're around her at close proximity for a few days, depending on which variant she picks up. You're safer in that situation than she is, put "No, you're not going to get the chance to make me sick, and even if I don't get it a visit with you being sick the whole time would be miserable" is not unreasonable.

    Anaphylaxis. Sorry, should have been more clear.

    She can probably manage the anaphylaxis fear by managing the risk. If you can, talk her into getting advise from her physician and then tell her to wait for longer at the vaccine clinic and/or bring epinephrine. If she warns the staff ahead of time they'll keep an eye out for her, and if she's getting it at a clinic run in a hospital than it'll be about as risk free as you can hope for.

  • Options
    CorvusCorvus . VancouverRegistered User regular
    So, I have a question for people much more knowledgeable on what's going on with COVID and the variants than I am. I've mentioned this before, but my mom still has not gotten a vaccine and no one she lives with has either. She is afraid the vaccine will cause her to go into shock (which she has a history of) and still has not gotten the shot, despite working in the public school system of a very red county in a very red state. She is wanting to visit me and my girlfriend when her school system goes on Fall break, which would be the first time we will see each other in a year+. My girlfriend and I are both vaccinated, but I work in a place with people that never took the pandemic seriously and I'm afraid many may be lying about their vaccination status. Would I be going way overboard by telling my mom she can't come visit us unless she gets vaccinated? It's what I'm leaning towards, but I'd just like some confirmation it is the right course of action. Or if not, be told I'm being way too cautious.

    We don't owe anything, including our permission to be in our presence to people, regardless of who they to are us, who are not protecting everyone from Covid by getting vaccinated.

    :so_raven:
  • Options
    chosenofsotekchosenofsotek Registered User regular
    edited July 2021
    Gilgaron wrote: »
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    Shock or anaphylaxis? One would be very uncommon, the other isn't uncommon in people with bad allergies to an ingredient. If she's traveling and not vaccinated she's still going to be at high risk to catch it. Then you'll have a low to decent risk of catching it if you're around her at close proximity for a few days, depending on which variant she picks up. You're safer in that situation than she is, put "No, you're not going to get the chance to make me sick, and even if I don't get it a visit with you being sick the whole time would be miserable" is not unreasonable.

    Anaphylaxis. Sorry, should have been more clear.

    She can probably manage the anaphylaxis fear by managing the risk. If you can, talk her into getting advise from her physician and then tell her to wait for longer at the vaccine clinic and/or bring epinephrine. If she warns the staff ahead of time they'll keep an eye out for her, and if she's getting it at a clinic run in a hospital than it'll be about as risk free as you can hope for.

    I have suggested these and I've thrown every number I can find on how rare Anaphylaxis shock is with the COVID vaccine. My brother is also an EMT and works in clinics giving the vaccine. She could go when he's working one day, but still hasn't. Unfortunately, unless it comes from Facebook my mom won't take it seriously. Though I have had a friend suggest I just buy pro-vaccine ad space on Facebook directed towards her demographic and area.

    chosenofsotek on
  • Options
    GilgaronGilgaron Registered User regular
    edited July 2021
    https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/

    This epidemiologist has an active Facebook feed if that would help? Otherwise just standing your ground and being stubborn on it may be the only way.

    Gilgaron on
  • Options
    ThawmusThawmus +Jackface Registered User regular
    So, I have a question for people much more knowledgeable on what's going on with COVID and the variants than I am. I've mentioned this before, but my mom still has not gotten a vaccine and no one she lives with has either. She is afraid the vaccine will cause her to go into shock (which she has a history of) and still has not gotten the shot, despite working in the public school system of a very red county in a very red state. She is wanting to visit me and my girlfriend when her school system goes on Fall break, which would be the first time we will see each other in a year+. My girlfriend and I are both vaccinated, but I work in a place with people that never took the pandemic seriously and I'm afraid many may be lying about their vaccination status. Would I be going way overboard by telling my mom she can't come visit us unless she gets vaccinated? It's what I'm leaning towards, but I'd just like some confirmation it is the right course of action. Or if not, be told I'm being way too cautious.

    You're taking on far too much moral weight here. The moral decision for you here is whether or not you feel you constitute a risk to her health if she travels to see you. Seems like that's a slam dunk "yes" to me.

    The moral decision for her is whether she should accept the risks of vaccinating over the risks of covid. That's not on you, she's a grown ass woman and she's going to have to decide that herself. She may not make a decision you like but it's not on you.

    It seems to me that you're taking on the moral weight of both decisions when trying to decide if you should require her to be vaccinated if she comes to visit, and you shouldn't do that. My $.02

    Twitch: Thawmus83
  • Options
    Phoenix-DPhoenix-D Registered User regular
    Gilgaron wrote: »
    Phoenix-D wrote: »
    Shock or anaphylaxis? One would be very uncommon, the other isn't uncommon in people with bad allergies to an ingredient. If she's traveling and not vaccinated she's still going to be at high risk to catch it. Then you'll have a low to decent risk of catching it if you're around her at close proximity for a few days, depending on which variant she picks up. You're safer in that situation than she is, put "No, you're not going to get the chance to make me sick, and even if I don't get it a visit with you being sick the whole time would be miserable" is not unreasonable.

    Anaphylaxis. Sorry, should have been more clear.

    She can probably manage the anaphylaxis fear by managing the risk. If you can, talk her into getting advise from her physician and then tell her to wait for longer at the vaccine clinic and/or bring epinephrine. If she warns the staff ahead of time they'll keep an eye out for her, and if she's getting it at a clinic run in a hospital than it'll be about as risk free as you can hope for.

    OR for that matter checking into different vaccines. We have, what, four of them approved in the US now? And they all have different components. Even if she will 100% die of anaphylaxis to one, she might be able to take another safely.

  • Options
    The Dude With HerpesThe Dude With Herpes Lehi, UTRegistered User regular
    It is easy enough to find the exact ingredients in every single vaccine. And you can just cross reference any of them with any allergens a person may have that may lead to anaphylaxis.

    When I got my vaccine they had a separate seating area afterwards for people who have experienced anaphylactic episode in the past. And you had to wait longer; if you're not having an episode within a half hour, you're more than likely fine, at least as far as anaphylaxis goes. For me I always carrying EpiPen on me anyway, but I don't think they require it if you tick that box. I would imagine the staff has some on hand at any vaccine location.

    Honestly, if anaphylaxis is a danger to yourself, you really need to understand as well as possible what can trigger it. Go to an allergist, get tested and poked and prodded until you're not having to guess at what things may or may not kill you.

    Steam: Galedrid - XBL: Galedrid - PSN: Galedrid
    Origin: Galedrid - Nintendo: Galedrid/3222-6858-1045
    Blizzard: Galedrid#1367 - FFXIV: Galedrid Kingshand

  • Options
    Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    let's be honest - she's not doing that research. She's going by what (the idiots on) Facebook tell(s) her.

  • Options
    chosenofsotekchosenofsotek Registered User regular
    let's be honest - she's not doing that research. She's going by what (the idiots on) Facebook tell(s) her.

    I hate to say this about my own mom, but yeah this. She'd rather listen to what confirms her world view than what would challenge it. I'm also the blacksheep of the family, so she's even less likely to listen to me. Everyone else in my family has either refused to get the vaccine or, in the case of my brother that is an EMT, forced by his work to get it when he initially refused. So no one else is encouraging her to get it.

  • Options
    honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    So the Netherlands pretty much got rid of most restrictions last month. Looks like from a week ago to this week the daily case number quintupled? Real good example maybe how good of an idea that was and what might happen in England when they'll get rid of restrictions while already having the highest caseload in Europe by a wide margin.

  • Options
    WotanAnubisWotanAnubis Registered User regular
    honovere wrote: »
    So the Netherlands pretty much got rid of most restrictions last month. Looks like from a week ago to this week the daily case number quintupled? Real good example maybe how good of an idea that was and what might happen in England when they'll get rid of restrictions while already having the highest caseload in Europe by a wide margin.

    Yeah. The Dutch government's COVID strategy so far is to lift as many restrictions as they can until all the hospitals start screaming bloody murder and then grudgingly impose some half-hearted measures again while blaming the populace for not social distancing enough.

    It's not been good for my anxiety. Even though I've now been vaccinated, I still feel very unsafe.

  • Options
    SanderJKSanderJK Crocodylus Pontifex Sinterklasicus Madrid, 3000 ADRegistered User regular
    To see how bad of an idea it is to open night clubs and bars in the same week as the delta variant becomes dominant:

    E5xvg5eWYAk9hG6?format=png&name=4096x4096

    The daily count is now 4500 cases, and there's at least 5 more days in the pipeline because no action has been taken yet, the clamp down will be tomorrow.
    Now it is a lot of youth, but even youth have a roughly 1% hospitalisation rate.

    Steam: SanderJK Origin: SanderJK
  • Options
    ShadowhopeShadowhope Baa. Registered User regular

    The thing I keep wondering is: where can we actually go from here?

    The broad strokes of option A, option B, and option C are obvious. Option A is to say “once we reach X% vaccination rate, we open back up.” And option B is to say “due to the spread of variants, we cannot open back until they’re under control.” If we choose option A, we’re at the mercy of those who refuse to get vaccinated, and we hope that they aren’t enough to keep us from getting over X%. If we choose option B, we’re effectively saying that we’re going to remain in a restricted state for years.

    We potentially can make option A possible by mandating vaccinations. But that’ll receive resistance from all sides of the political spectrum, for reasons ranging from bodily autonomy to 5G microchips. Option B seems unlikely to me to be politically feasible; we’ve been in a restricted state for 16 months to one degree or another, and I don’t think that buy-in for continued or returns to restrictions is going to be high enough to allow them to happen. Even if we restrict for say another three months and get case counts down in Canada, the UK and the US, Covid isn’t going away. We’ll see numbers start to rise again one way or another once we reopen.

    Option C is of course YOLO. I just can’t see there being the political will to follow any other course, and I’m not sure that any other course is actually possible at this point. Covid is endemic. At this point, I suspect that we probably have to get jabbed and trust that the vaccines will at least blunt the effects of the disease enough for society to resume some version of normal.

    Civics is not a consumer product that you can ignore because you don’t like the options presented.
  • Options
    ChanusChanus Harbinger of the Spicy Rooster Apocalypse The Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered User regular
    SanderJK wrote: »
    To see how bad of an idea it is to open night clubs and bars in the same week as the delta variant becomes dominant:

    E5xvg5eWYAk9hG6?format=png&name=4096x4096

    The daily count is now 4500 cases, and there's at least 5 more days in the pipeline because no action has been taken yet, the clamp down will be tomorrow.
    Now it is a lot of youth, but even youth have a roughly 1% hospitalisation rate.

    more to the point, and the part that is frequently overlooked, it's not about "oh well i got sick but i'm young and not likely to have to be hospitalized so whatever"

    it's "oh well i got sick and i'm contributing to the chance of getting someone else sick, especially because i'm more likely to not be laid out by being sick, and also contributing the chance of spreading new, more virulent mutations of the virus"

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
  • Options
    Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    "We might have been able to actually stop this (or fix it after it started) if people weren't stupid. But they are, so..."

    (and again: am I talking about COVID or climate change? (Yes.) )

  • Options
    CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Young people might not be likely to die, but they can certainly get long Covid.

  • Options
    HamHamJHamHamJ Registered User regular
    Shadowhope wrote: »
    The thing I keep wondering is: where can we actually go from here?

    The broad strokes of option A, option B, and option C are obvious. Option A is to say “once we reach X% vaccination rate, we open back up.” And option B is to say “due to the spread of variants, we cannot open back until they’re under control.” If we choose option A, we’re at the mercy of those who refuse to get vaccinated, and we hope that they aren’t enough to keep us from getting over X%. If we choose option B, we’re effectively saying that we’re going to remain in a restricted state for years.

    We potentially can make option A possible by mandating vaccinations. But that’ll receive resistance from all sides of the political spectrum, for reasons ranging from bodily autonomy to 5G microchips. Option B seems unlikely to me to be politically feasible; we’ve been in a restricted state for 16 months to one degree or another, and I don’t think that buy-in for continued or returns to restrictions is going to be high enough to allow them to happen. Even if we restrict for say another three months and get case counts down in Canada, the UK and the US, Covid isn’t going away. We’ll see numbers start to rise again one way or another once we reopen.

    Option C is of course YOLO. I just can’t see there being the political will to follow any other course, and I’m not sure that any other course is actually possible at this point. Covid is endemic. At this point, I suspect that we probably have to get jabbed and trust that the vaccines will at least blunt the effects of the disease enough for society to resume some version of normal.

    I don't think it likely that restrictions can be maintained if the target for Option A doesn't look like it can be reached soonish. There are methods short of mandatory vaccination that can be tried. But if they don't do enough the inevitable result seems to be Option C. But if the results from Option C are bad enough I could see some governments trying to go back to lockdown. But each time you go through this cycle of reopening, cases spike, lockdown I imagine compliance deteriorates.

    While racing light mechs, your Urbanmech comes in second place, but only because it ran out of ammo.
  • Options
    honoverehonovere Registered User regular
    SanderJK wrote: »
    To see how bad of an idea it is to open night clubs and bars in the same week as the delta variant becomes dominant:

    E5xvg5eWYAk9hG6?format=png&name=4096x4096

    The daily count is now 4500 cases, and there's at least 5 more days in the pipeline because no action has been taken yet, the clamp down will be tomorrow.
    Now it is a lot of youth, but even youth have a roughly 1% hospitalisation rate.

    Cool.cool.cool.
    So guess what the most populous state in Germany decided to open this week? Also guess what variant is now responsible for the majority of new cases?

  • Options
    [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    edited July 2021
    .

    [Expletive deleted] on
    Sic transit gloria mundi.
This discussion has been closed.