I may just be extremely cynical and/or jaded from the last few decades of geopolitics but it feels almost fanciful to say that Putin's going to lose his head/position, or even really that much internal clout. I've been reading a lot of breathless Reddit comments about how Russia's going to turn into a democracy any day now and it's just like... am I completely misreading the tea leaves here?
Ukraine is likely going to fall within a month or so, the sanctions will slowly be rolled back, and Putin's going to weather the storm. The biggest loss from him is that it'll take another decade of waiting for NATO countries to get back to roiling in their own death spiral of democracy -> authoritarianism and then it'll be another round of invasions
You might well be right, just like the overly optimistic takes on Arab Spring a decade ago about the future that proved...overly optimistic.
But I'm going to hang onto hope.
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Kane Red RobeMaster of MagicArcanusRegistered Userregular
So one of the twitters that has been posting what turns out to be surprisingly useful and seemingly verifiable info is Ukraine Weapons Tracker.
It's more about identifying munitions and weapons/vehicles being used, captured or destroyed in the conflict but the reason I've been paying attention to it is because it gives a pretty good snapshot of the fighting going on at the ground level and the evolving tactics on both sides.
As always, grain of salt for most of this stuff (fog of war etc) but generally it looks like the Russians are still losing significant numbers of tanks and supply trucks and also increasing the amount of unguided munitions used against residential areas.
They are probably running low on precision munitions. They were never known for having a shitload of them, and have used a lot more than they planned.
I recall that being a thing in the Georgia war, they ran out of precision bombs real quick and resorted to dropping the dumb stuff thereafter.
The biggest danger right now I see is Putin digging in and doubling down, which seems to be the case. But the harder and more ferocious the Ukrainian's fight, the worse Putin looks. He was expecting a first round knock out, now he has to feel a 20 round slug fest.
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AegeriTiny wee bacteriumsPlateau of LengRegistered Userregular
It strikes me how many of these videos are just civilians driving or walking by and going, hey, cool, let's take a video of this stuff. When I pictured resistance movements in my mind, I was always thinking that like...you'd ambush a convoy as hard as you could, and then get the fuck out of there into the woods, because enemy air power or armor would be chasing you down ten minutes later. Not...destroy a supply convoy and then just hang out as long as you like, because it's not like they have any support.
Could you imagine a group of people just jumping into an Abrams tank in the Middle East like that?
I mean, there would be conniptions in American military circles if someone just stole their shit off the street like that.
Russia is still probably going to win this; the doing and the aftermath are just going to be a lot bloodier than they probably planned for.
I'm getting less and less sure of this as time goes by. When this whole thing was kicking off somebody said "If Ukraine still has an army in a week, its going badly for Russia. If Ukraine still has a government in two weeks, its going very badly for Russia" and I pretty much agreed. Well, its currently looking very likely that they're going to make it to the end of the week, at least, and now that we've actually figured out how sanctions work, the Russians are facing a time limit of their own. Can they take Ukraine before their country grinds to a half from lack of funds? If they do, would it even matter at that point?
I definitely thought this was a sure thing, that there was no way Ukraine could possibly actually win this thing, but a lot has changed since the beginning, namely:
Ukraine's military turned out to be a lot better prepared and organized than anybody expected
Russia's military turned out to be a lot worse prepared and organized than anybody expected
The bulk of the actual Russian troops really really don't want to be there
The war is incredibly unpopular at home, to the point of massive protests despite the risk of being disappeared/tortured
The Ukrainian government has been handing out rifles and molotovs like candy
The international community is absolutely flooding Ukraine with supplies, particularly antitank weapons and even fighter jets, which I don't think anybody saw coming
The international community has finally implemented sanctions with bite, which puts more and more pressure on Russia to end
Russia's initial plan of attack was fucking bananas. I'll probably make a whole seperate post on this later because I've already procrastinated enough on this today already.
So yeah, things are looking decidedly less hopeless than they were at the outset.
Also, FlightRadar24 is insane right now; they have a "most tracked" flights list, and wouldn't you know it, if you look at the top 5, almost all of them seem to be military planes in the area of Ukraine. In fact, as of right now:
#1: USAF Globemaster flying from Rammstein to East Poland
#2: RAF Globemaster flying from RAF Mildenhall to East Poland
#3: All info N/A but doing donuts on the Polish border, hmm, I wonder what that could be
#4: USAF Stratotanker, presumably on station to refuel #3
#5: Civillian flight from St Petersburg to Istanbul
And these are just the ones with their transponders on that they want everyone to know are there.
Also, a lot of Russians seem to be just... abandoning equipment. Lots of videos of UA soldiers climbing over and in what appear to be fully functional T-72's and T-90 tanks. Knocked out supply trucks are having their munitions looted, so onto of what NATO is sending they're getting weapons and ammo off Russian shit too.
I don't know if its happening in significant numbers but it definitely seems to be happening. The strategy so far also seems to be that the Ukrainians airforce is specifically targeting Russian logistics. That's the smart play. Ill equipped armor kinda sucks in urban environments, especially when the attacking force seems so disorganized and the enemy has RPG's, Javelins and NLAW'S.
I may just be extremely cynical and/or jaded from the last few decades of geopolitics but it feels almost fanciful to say that Putin's going to lose his head/position, or even really that much internal clout. I've been reading a lot of breathless Reddit comments about how Russia's going to turn into a democracy any day now and it's just like... am I completely misreading the tea leaves here?
Ukraine is likely going to fall within a month or so, the sanctions will slowly be rolled back, and Putin's going to weather the storm. The biggest loss from him is that it'll take another decade of waiting for NATO countries to get back to roiling in their own death spiral of democracy -> authoritarianism and then it'll be another round of invasions
The Ruble went from being worth ~$1 to worth ~1¢
That is hard to weather no matter how brutal and authoritarian you are. Just ask the Soviet Premier in the 90's.
It strikes me how many of these videos are just civilians driving or walking by and going, hey, cool, let's take a video of this stuff. When I pictured resistance movements in my mind, I was always thinking that like...you'd ambush a convoy as hard as you could, and then get the fuck out of there into the woods, because enemy air power or armor would be chasing you down ten minutes later. Not...destroy a supply convoy and then just hang out as long as you like, because it's not like they have any support.
Could you imagine a group of people just jumping into an Abrams tank in the Middle East like that?
I mean, there would be conniptions in American military circles if someone just stole their shit off the street like that.
That's why they were either garrisoned in super secure staging areas, full convoys of holy shit firepower, or blown up as people left them behind.
But yeah if a random tanker decided they wanted to spend the rest of their life in Leavenworth they could probably get a few miles.
I may just be extremely cynical and/or jaded from the last few decades of geopolitics but it feels almost fanciful to say that Putin's going to lose his head/position, or even really that much internal clout. I've been reading a lot of breathless Reddit comments about how Russia's going to turn into a democracy any day now and it's just like... am I completely misreading the tea leaves here?
Ukraine is likely going to fall within a month or so, the sanctions will slowly be rolled back, and Putin's going to weather the storm. The biggest loss from him is that it'll take another decade of waiting for NATO countries to get back to roiling in their own death spiral of democracy -> authoritarianism and then it'll be another round of invasions
The Ruble went from being worth ~$1 to worth ~1¢
That is hard to weather no matter how brutal and authoritarian you are. Just ask the Soviet Premier in the 90's.
Eh? The Ruble was about $0.013 in early Feb and now is $0.0096. Which is still a huge collapse, sure, but not the early 90s hyperinflation post-Soviet era
Eddy on
"and the morning stars I have seen
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
It strikes me how many of these videos are just civilians driving or walking by and going, hey, cool, let's take a video of this stuff. When I pictured resistance movements in my mind, I was always thinking that like...you'd ambush a convoy as hard as you could, and then get the fuck out of there into the woods, because enemy air power or armor would be chasing you down ten minutes later. Not...destroy a supply convoy and then just hang out as long as you like, because it's not like they have any support.
Thats because until now the actual fighting has been mostly between the Russian army and the Ukrainian army; the militias and partisans don't really seem to be much of a factor on the battlefield just yet and the Russians have been ordered to try to keep civillian casualties to a minimum. As they transition into full war-crimes mode as they seem to be doing, I would expect these attitudes to change on both ends. I doubt a random civillian will be able to just walk up to Russian soldiers and have a friendly chat a week from now.
I may just be extremely cynical and/or jaded from the last few decades of geopolitics but it feels almost fanciful to say that Putin's going to lose his head/position, or even really that much internal clout. I've been reading a lot of breathless Reddit comments about how Russia's going to turn into a democracy any day now and it's just like... am I completely misreading the tea leaves here?
Ukraine is likely going to fall within a month or so, the sanctions will slowly be rolled back, and Putin's going to weather the storm. The biggest loss from him is that it'll take another decade of waiting for NATO countries to get back to roiling in their own death spiral of democracy -> authoritarianism and then it'll be another round of invasions
The Ruble went from being worth ~$1 to worth ~1¢
That is hard to weather no matter how brutal and authoritarian you are. Just ask the Soviet Premier in the 90's.
Eh? The Ruble was about $0.013 in early Feb and now is $0.0096. Which is still a huge collapse, sure, but not the early 90s hyperinflation post-Soviet era
My mistake, I thought I saw a larger decline reported elsewhere. Still, it's pretty inflationary and only going to build off of itself. Having a flight of capital, 25%+ drop in value for any trade, and removal from international finance means autarky is going to become a necessity. And that never really works even short term.
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-Loki-Don't pee in my mouth and tell me it's raining.Registered Userregular
Also, captured Russian rations have been shown having a ‘best before’ date of…. 2015
I’m no expert on MRE, I assume they are perfectly serviceable in an emergency, but being a soldier and looking at the box that says your meal is seven years past it’s date while munching on stale tasting food had gotta do a number on morale.
I may just be extremely cynical and/or jaded from the last few decades of geopolitics but it feels almost fanciful to say that Putin's going to lose his head/position, or even really that much internal clout. I've been reading a lot of breathless Reddit comments about how Russia's going to turn into a democracy any day now and it's just like... am I completely misreading the tea leaves here?
Ukraine is likely going to fall within a month or so, the sanctions will slowly be rolled back, and Putin's going to weather the storm. The biggest loss from him is that it'll take another decade of waiting for NATO countries to get back to roiling in their own death spiral of democracy -> authoritarianism and then it'll be another round of invasions
The Ruble went from being worth ~$1 to worth ~1¢
That is hard to weather no matter how brutal and authoritarian you are. Just ask the Soviet Premier in the 90's.
Eh? The Ruble was about $0.013 in early Feb and now is $0.0096. Which is still a huge collapse, sure, but not the early 90s hyperinflation post-Soviet era
My mistake, I thought I saw a larger decline reported elsewhere. Still, it's pretty inflationary and only going to build off of itself. Having a flight of capital, 25%+ drop in value for any trade, and removal from international finance means autarky is going to become a necessity. And that never really works even short term.
Well let's wait until they unfreeze their market which has been closed and refusing trades since, I think, Friday? Thursday?
We will see where things stabilize and i wish i had shorted the Ruble a week ago or whatever the currency was.
I may just be extremely cynical and/or jaded from the last few decades of geopolitics but it feels almost fanciful to say that Putin's going to lose his head/position, or even really that much internal clout. I've been reading a lot of breathless Reddit comments about how Russia's going to turn into a democracy any day now and it's just like... am I completely misreading the tea leaves here?
Ukraine is likely going to fall within a month or so, the sanctions will slowly be rolled back, and Putin's going to weather the storm. The biggest loss from him is that it'll take another decade of waiting for NATO countries to get back to roiling in their own death spiral of democracy -> authoritarianism and then it'll be another round of invasions
The Ruble went from being worth ~$1 to worth ~1¢
That is hard to weather no matter how brutal and authoritarian you are. Just ask the Soviet Premier in the 90's.
This is a bit of an exaggeration. The ruble was not worth $1, it was worth 1.3c before
Also, captured Russian rations have been shown having a ‘best before’ date of…. 2015
I’m no expert on MRE, I assume they are perfectly serviceable in an emergency, but being a soldier and looking at the box that says your meal is seven years past it’s date while munching on stale tasting food had gotta do a number on morale.
I may just be extremely cynical and/or jaded from the last few decades of geopolitics but it feels almost fanciful to say that Putin's going to lose his head/position, or even really that much internal clout. I've been reading a lot of breathless Reddit comments about how Russia's going to turn into a democracy any day now and it's just like... am I completely misreading the tea leaves here?
Ukraine is likely going to fall within a month or so, the sanctions will slowly be rolled back, and Putin's going to weather the storm. The biggest loss from him is that it'll take another decade of waiting for NATO countries to get back to roiling in their own death spiral of democracy -> authoritarianism and then it'll be another round of invasions
Maybe, there is going to be an extensive insurgency if they take Ukraine, but Russia did something very dumb. They are trying to attack everywhere all at once. Seize objectives everywhere. If they wanted Kiev, they needed to send everything to Kiev. But they attacked everywhere. So the Ukrainians could focus their defense in Kiev. It isn’t Ukrainians vs Russia so much as Ukrainians vs the 1/3rd of Russians that are attacking Kiev.
Also, captured Russian rations have been shown having a ‘best before’ date of…. 2015
I’m no expert on MRE, I assume they are perfectly serviceable in an emergency, but being a soldier and looking at the box that says your meal is seven years past it’s date while munching on stale tasting food had gotta do a number on morale.
I used a can of olives the other day that expired in 2012. It's not a big deal. WW2 rations that arent obviously bad are said to be no different than they were 70 years ago. Just more metallic.
Stuff like that basically doesnt expire but should kinda be turned over.
Just like all the munitions Warsaw Pact countries are giving away around the 30 year 'use by'dates.
Also, captured Russian rations have been shown having a ‘best before’ date of…. 2015
I’m no expert on MRE, I assume they are perfectly serviceable in an emergency, but being a soldier and looking at the box that says your meal is seven years past it’s date while munching on stale tasting food had gotta do a number on morale.
The long lifespan of an MRE probably makes it even worse. Google tells me that an MRE is usually good for 5 years, which makes these things almost as old as the troops eating them.
I used a can of olives the other day that expired in 2012. It's not a big deal.
*squints*
Joking aside, I recall a tangent from the 2014 invasion where UKR munitions at least were mega-fucked because they just hadn't been maintained since the fall of the Berlin Wall, which even surprised Russian troops whose logistical planning was to partially live off the land, as it were; but that's neither here nor there about MREs
Eddy on
"and the morning stars I have seen
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
I may just be extremely cynical and/or jaded from the last few decades of geopolitics but it feels almost fanciful to say that Putin's going to lose his head/position, or even really that much internal clout. I've been reading a lot of breathless Reddit comments about how Russia's going to turn into a democracy any day now and it's just like... am I completely misreading the tea leaves here?
Ukraine is likely going to fall within a month or so, the sanctions will slowly be rolled back, and Putin's going to weather the storm. The biggest loss from him is that it'll take another decade of waiting for NATO countries to get back to roiling in their own death spiral of democracy -> authoritarianism and then it'll be another round of invasions
The Ruble went from being worth ~$1 to worth ~1¢
That is hard to weather no matter how brutal and authoritarian you are. Just ask the Soviet Premier in the 90's.
When was the Ruble $1?
The high for the last year was like $.015, it's at .009.
Canned goods are pretty amazing. As long as it's not too acidic, the dates on them are more like suggestions.
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HakkekageSpace Whore Academysumma cum laudeRegistered Userregular
I agree that as amazing as it is to witness just how badly Russia fucked up, it is a mistake to extrapolate that Russia cannot, at least in Ukraine, unfuck their early blunders going forward
This thread is long but worth reading for perspective’s sake
I may just be extremely cynical and/or jaded from the last few decades of geopolitics but it feels almost fanciful to say that Putin's going to lose his head/position, or even really that much internal clout. I've been reading a lot of breathless Reddit comments about how Russia's going to turn into a democracy any day now and it's just like... am I completely misreading the tea leaves here?
Ukraine is likely going to fall within a month or so, the sanctions will slowly be rolled back, and Putin's going to weather the storm. The biggest loss from him is that it'll take another decade of waiting for NATO countries to get back to roiling in their own death spiral of democracy -> authoritarianism and then it'll be another round of invasions
The Ruble went from being worth ~$1 to worth ~1¢
That is hard to weather no matter how brutal and authoritarian you are. Just ask the Soviet Premier in the 90's.
When was the Ruble $1?
Yeah Yahoo Finance has it at best as about 1/30 of a dollar. Just recently it was an 80th or so. Then the sanctions hit and that was instant 20% inflation. Normally inflation takes months. This happened in less than a week.
I don't know how long the invasion will last. I don't know if Ukraine can win. But unless that 20% inflation reverses itself, that is going to HURT.
I agree that as amazing as it is to witness just how badly Russia fucked up, it is a mistake to extrapolate that Russia cannot, at least in Ukraine, unfuck their early blunders going forward
This thread is long but worth reading for perspective’s sake
I don't think anyone doubts Russia can still come back and flatten Ukraine, but they will literally have to flatten Ukraine to do it.
They weren't embraced as liberators, their army got badly bloodied and shown to be not nearly the powerhouse people have feared, and their economy got wrecked by nations just glad to get some kicks in on the bully.
This was not what they wanted and any sense would say they retreat saying they met all their strategic goals, and support the independence of the eastern couple regions.
So this is interesting, JP Morgan took a stab at estimating what the sanctions are gonna cause in losses for the Russian Economy. They're guessing a 20% contraction for the quarter, and a yearly drop of -3.5% gdp. The great recession was a -4.2% drop in the U.S. I think they're greatly underestimating it personally.
Im watching this “expired MREs” thing the same way I was watching the “look at these beat up tank interiors” thing from yesterday. If it makes for good propaganda, cool. Go wild.
But, like, motherfuckers clearly just don’t know. I’ve seen some old ass MREs in the US Army. And some torn-up ass tank seats. It’s the Army, man.
I thought this twitter thread was an interesting historical deep dive on Soviet (and later Russian) propaganda about nazis and the history of Russia which sheds some light on how all of the "denazification" rhetoric from Putin might be more compelling to his domestic audience than us.
My fear is that if the Russians eventually win, sanctions quickly disappear as the general public moves on and corporate interests have their way. Maybe that is exactly what Russia is counting on.
I agree that as amazing as it is to witness just how badly Russia fucked up, it is a mistake to extrapolate that Russia cannot, at least in Ukraine, unfuck their early blunders going forward
This thread is long but worth reading for perspective’s sake
The two big points that I think still give me pause are
1) Russia shot their window of opportunity to execute this operation before the West had time to organize and bludgeon them with sanctions. The sanctions have also seen a significant escalation in their severity and they're about to start hitting.
2) The apparent apathy of the Russian army. Maybe Russia still has a massive reserve and is reorganizing their strategy, but if the army just doesn't really want to fight that's going to create its own set of problems they'll have to deal with.
I'm not saying those two things secure a Ukranian victory, but I do think it's going to make the situation untenable in the long term.
TTODewbackPuts the drawl in ya'llI think I'm in HellRegistered Userregular
im kind of expecting ukraine to have another aha moment where they have like all their people work nonstop to get like 2 of the jets combat ready in record time and just blitz back towards kyiv dropping everything they can
along the way.
My fear is that if the Russians eventually win, sanctions quickly disappear as the general public moves on and corporate interests have their way. Maybe that is exactly what Russia is counting on.
It's a risk, but also not a great one. The painful part is the decoupling, and that's done. There's not a whole lot of incentive to roll sanctions back any time soon, and a whole lot of reason to not.
My fear is that if the Russians eventually win, sanctions quickly disappear as the general public moves on and corporate interests have their way. Maybe that is exactly what Russia is counting on.
It is a worry. But Europe is not going to be happy about the whole "You just started a major fucking war/insurgency/breeding ground for terrorists in our backyard" thing.
Europe gets pissy about that shit when it's in the Middle East because it can bite them pretty easily. The Ukraine is an even shorter drive. The EU is gonna be sore about this for a while.
And Poland and every other ex-USSR state is going to be paranoid for a long fucking while. Because they are going to want to be sure that they aren't next on Putin's bucket list.
So this is interesting, JP Morgan took a stab at estimating what the sanctions are gonna cause in losses for the Russian Economy. They're guessing a 20% contraction for the quarter, and a yearly drop of -3.5% gdp. The great recession was a -4.2% drop in the U.S. I think they're greatly underestimating it personally.
I feel like it depends on how much support they get from China. They're cut off from converting assets to dollars. They're cut off from getting payments from Europe. The central bank's efforts to prop up the currency only works if the populace believes that their rubles are able to purchase goods. The second that doesn't happen, eg they run out of flour, eggs, meat, fuel, that's where it goes from contraction to deep crust borehole.
It's that last one which makes the prediction really, really hard to do.
All opinions are my own and in no way reflect that of my employer.
Russia still has time to unfuck their military operations, but they have also lost a decent chunk of some of their most experienced units. It sounds like the VDV (paratroopers) in particular took a real beating, sometimes without even getting off their planes. If they can re-organize and accomplish some/all of their objectives before the market freeze is over they could at least mitigate some of the pain. I don't think that the Ukrainians will fold that quickly, especially with all the support they are getting from other European nations.
I agree that as amazing as it is to witness just how badly Russia fucked up, it is a mistake to extrapolate that Russia cannot, at least in Ukraine, unfuck their early blunders going forward
This thread is long but worth reading for perspective’s sake
I don't think anyone doubts Russia can still come back and flatten Ukraine, but they will literally have to flatten Ukraine to do it.
They weren't embraced as liberators, their army got badly bloodied and shown to be not nearly the powerhouse people have feared, and their economy got wrecked by nations just glad to get some kicks in on the bully.
This was not what they wanted and any sense would say they retreat saying they met all their strategic goals, and support the independence of the eastern couple regions.
Also while he mentioned moving more forces in, was he accounting for all the armaments that people are sending into Ukraine? He mentioned hundreds of combat helicopters sitting unused. How do combat helicopters typically do against MANPADS? (I am actually wondering if there is any historical data on this, not just being sarcastic).
Posts
You might well be right, just like the overly optimistic takes on Arab Spring a decade ago about the future that proved...overly optimistic.
But I'm going to hang onto hope.
I recall that being a thing in the Georgia war, they ran out of precision bombs real quick and resorted to dropping the dumb stuff thereafter.
Could you imagine a group of people just jumping into an Abrams tank in the Middle East like that?
I mean, there would be conniptions in American military circles if someone just stole their shit off the street like that.
I'm getting less and less sure of this as time goes by. When this whole thing was kicking off somebody said "If Ukraine still has an army in a week, its going badly for Russia. If Ukraine still has a government in two weeks, its going very badly for Russia" and I pretty much agreed. Well, its currently looking very likely that they're going to make it to the end of the week, at least, and now that we've actually figured out how sanctions work, the Russians are facing a time limit of their own. Can they take Ukraine before their country grinds to a half from lack of funds? If they do, would it even matter at that point?
I definitely thought this was a sure thing, that there was no way Ukraine could possibly actually win this thing, but a lot has changed since the beginning, namely:
So yeah, things are looking decidedly less hopeless than they were at the outset.
Also, FlightRadar24 is insane right now; they have a "most tracked" flights list, and wouldn't you know it, if you look at the top 5, almost all of them seem to be military planes in the area of Ukraine. In fact, as of right now:
#1: USAF Globemaster flying from Rammstein to East Poland
#2: RAF Globemaster flying from RAF Mildenhall to East Poland
#3: All info N/A but doing donuts on the Polish border, hmm, I wonder what that could be
#4: USAF Stratotanker, presumably on station to refuel #3
#5: Civillian flight from St Petersburg to Istanbul
And these are just the ones with their transponders on that they want everyone to know are there.
I don't know if its happening in significant numbers but it definitely seems to be happening. The strategy so far also seems to be that the Ukrainians airforce is specifically targeting Russian logistics. That's the smart play. Ill equipped armor kinda sucks in urban environments, especially when the attacking force seems so disorganized and the enemy has RPG's, Javelins and NLAW'S.
I'd really hate to be a Russian tanker right now.
The Ruble went from being worth ~$1 to worth ~1¢
That is hard to weather no matter how brutal and authoritarian you are. Just ask the Soviet Premier in the 90's.
That's why they were either garrisoned in super secure staging areas, full convoys of holy shit firepower, or blown up as people left them behind.
But yeah if a random tanker decided they wanted to spend the rest of their life in Leavenworth they could probably get a few miles.
Eh? The Ruble was about $0.013 in early Feb and now is $0.0096. Which is still a huge collapse, sure, but not the early 90s hyperinflation post-Soviet era
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
Thats because until now the actual fighting has been mostly between the Russian army and the Ukrainian army; the militias and partisans don't really seem to be much of a factor on the battlefield just yet and the Russians have been ordered to try to keep civillian casualties to a minimum. As they transition into full war-crimes mode as they seem to be doing, I would expect these attitudes to change on both ends. I doubt a random civillian will be able to just walk up to Russian soldiers and have a friendly chat a week from now.
Brest is right on the Polish-Belarus border. If true, make me wonder if they want to try and block supplies coming into Lviv.
My mistake, I thought I saw a larger decline reported elsewhere. Still, it's pretty inflationary and only going to build off of itself. Having a flight of capital, 25%+ drop in value for any trade, and removal from international finance means autarky is going to become a necessity. And that never really works even short term.
Curious how far they push it if they are.
Firing on an EU and NATO military vehicle isn’t the smartest play right now.
I’m no expert on MRE, I assume they are perfectly serviceable in an emergency, but being a soldier and looking at the box that says your meal is seven years past it’s date while munching on stale tasting food had gotta do a number on morale.
WoW
Dear Satan.....
Well let's wait until they unfreeze their market which has been closed and refusing trades since, I think, Friday? Thursday?
We will see where things stabilize and i wish i had shorted the Ruble a week ago or whatever the currency was.
This is a bit of an exaggeration. The ruble was not worth $1, it was worth 1.3c before
I used a can of olives the other day that expired in 2012. It's not a big deal. WW2 rations that arent obviously bad are said to be no different than they were 70 years ago. Just more metallic.
Stuff like that basically doesnt expire but should kinda be turned over.
Just like all the munitions Warsaw Pact countries are giving away around the 30 year 'use by'dates.
The long lifespan of an MRE probably makes it even worse. Google tells me that an MRE is usually good for 5 years, which makes these things almost as old as the troops eating them.
*squints*
Joking aside, I recall a tangent from the 2014 invasion where UKR munitions at least were mega-fucked because they just hadn't been maintained since the fall of the Berlin Wall, which even surprised Russian troops whose logistical planning was to partially live off the land, as it were; but that's neither here nor there about MREs
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
When was the Ruble $1?
The high for the last year was like $.015, it's at .009.
This thread is long but worth reading for perspective’s sake
Director of Russian Studies at CNA
NNID: Hakkekage
Yeah Yahoo Finance has it at best as about 1/30 of a dollar. Just recently it was an 80th or so. Then the sanctions hit and that was instant 20% inflation. Normally inflation takes months. This happened in less than a week.
I don't know how long the invasion will last. I don't know if Ukraine can win. But unless that 20% inflation reverses itself, that is going to HURT.
There is one ETF, that benches itself against the Russian market but I think I saw 116 Roubles = 1usd
They are going to be crippled, and it will hard to recover with few wanting to work with them.
I don't think anyone doubts Russia can still come back and flatten Ukraine, but they will literally have to flatten Ukraine to do it.
They weren't embraced as liberators, their army got badly bloodied and shown to be not nearly the powerhouse people have feared, and their economy got wrecked by nations just glad to get some kicks in on the bully.
This was not what they wanted and any sense would say they retreat saying they met all their strategic goals, and support the independence of the eastern couple regions.
So this is interesting, JP Morgan took a stab at estimating what the sanctions are gonna cause in losses for the Russian Economy. They're guessing a 20% contraction for the quarter, and a yearly drop of -3.5% gdp. The great recession was a -4.2% drop in the U.S. I think they're greatly underestimating it personally.
But, like, motherfuckers clearly just don’t know. I’ve seen some old ass MREs in the US Army. And some torn-up ass tank seats. It’s the Army, man.
Kamil Galeev works for the Woodrow Wilson Center, a US think tank.
I kind of largely agree with this.
The two big points that I think still give me pause are
1) Russia shot their window of opportunity to execute this operation before the West had time to organize and bludgeon them with sanctions. The sanctions have also seen a significant escalation in their severity and they're about to start hitting.
2) The apparent apathy of the Russian army. Maybe Russia still has a massive reserve and is reorganizing their strategy, but if the army just doesn't really want to fight that's going to create its own set of problems they'll have to deal with.
I'm not saying those two things secure a Ukranian victory, but I do think it's going to make the situation untenable in the long term.
along the way.
It's a risk, but also not a great one. The painful part is the decoupling, and that's done. There's not a whole lot of incentive to roll sanctions back any time soon, and a whole lot of reason to not.
You should sell you're friends wife a bridge.
It is a worry. But Europe is not going to be happy about the whole "You just started a major fucking war/insurgency/breeding ground for terrorists in our backyard" thing.
Europe gets pissy about that shit when it's in the Middle East because it can bite them pretty easily. The Ukraine is an even shorter drive. The EU is gonna be sore about this for a while.
And Poland and every other ex-USSR state is going to be paranoid for a long fucking while. Because they are going to want to be sure that they aren't next on Putin's bucket list.
I feel like it depends on how much support they get from China. They're cut off from converting assets to dollars. They're cut off from getting payments from Europe. The central bank's efforts to prop up the currency only works if the populace believes that their rubles are able to purchase goods. The second that doesn't happen, eg they run out of flour, eggs, meat, fuel, that's where it goes from contraction to deep crust borehole.
It's that last one which makes the prediction really, really hard to do.
Also while he mentioned moving more forces in, was he accounting for all the armaments that people are sending into Ukraine? He mentioned hundreds of combat helicopters sitting unused. How do combat helicopters typically do against MANPADS? (I am actually wondering if there is any historical data on this, not just being sarcastic).