Options

American Presidency: Let's get Eric!

1525355575863

Posts

  • Options
    kildykildy Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    TheMarshal wrote: »
    Has there ever been a time when a VP pick was rescinded and someone else moved onto the ticket?

    Yes. It ended... poorly.

    kildy on
  • Options
    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    If you watch the rest of the video we get into Rapture talk. Alaska is going to be a Refuge state for when the end days come and the church has to be ready to minister to them. This is all while Palin is right there on stage.

    Honestly, its more extreme that Falwell and his kind.

    PantsB on
    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
  • Options
    monikermoniker Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    TheMarshal wrote: »
    Has there ever been a time when a VP pick was rescinded and someone else moved onto the ticket?

    McGovern.

    moniker on
  • Options
    ScreamlineScreamline Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Perspective on Sarah Palin from a local who claims to know her personally

    Interesting if true, but it's from DailyKOS, so enjoy your salt.

    Screamline on
  • Options
    SpeakerSpeaker Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    So there are pictures of Bristol drinking.

    Speaker on
  • Options
    MKRMKR Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Can someone with more knowledge of polling data tell me what the 538 electoral vote thing means?

    2822351246_c28e556a2c_o.png

    MKR on
  • Options
    kildykildy Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    PantsB wrote: »
    If you watch the rest of the video we get into Rapture talk. Alaska is going to be a Refuge state for when the end days come and the church has to be ready to minister to them. This is all while Palin is right there on stage.

    Honestly, its more extreme that Falwell and his kind.

    wait wait, what?

    Sadly, this isn't at all damning, and just goes further towards showing the level of dissonance that makes Wright a horrible pastor, and everyone else just "energetic"

    kildy on
  • Options
    galenbladegalenblade Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Apparently the McCain campaign's trying to get out ahead of the AIP thing.

    They just released Palin's voter registration forms that show she was always a Pub and never formally with the AIP.

    galenblade on
    linksig.jpg
  • Options
    ArdeArde Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    kildy wrote: »
    It seems the new attack ads from Obama are only going to be featuring cheery music. For some reason. It amuses me, if nothing else. Anyway: Same same same samity same.

    Meh. Stop with the same ads, start up with the let's fix shit ads again. I don't care how the same he is, I care how different you are.

    Didn't they do that during the olympics? Plus, since right now McCain camp is being battered by the MSM, it's a good time as any to keep reminding people that not only does McCain has such a bad unqualified VP pick, he's also the exact same thing as Bush.

    Can't get the whole Palin thing to overshadow the attacks Obama camp has been doing so far.

    Arde on
    Wii code:3004 5525 7274 3361
    XBL Gametag: mailarde

    Screen Digest LOL3RZZ
  • Options
    kildykildy Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Speaker wrote: »
    So there are pictures of Bristol drinking.

    Enh. I find it hard to get outraged about something I did as a teenager, too. Except I wasn't dumb enough to take pictures of it.

    Unless it's while pregnant, then it's dangerous.

    kildy on
  • Options
    KetBraKetBra Dressed Ridiculously Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    That is a graph of Obama electoral college votes vs the number of simulations that produce that result. (Nate does 10000 for each update of the site)

    Basically, the probability of each electoral college result.

    Edit: That's for MKR

    KetBra on
    KGMvDLc.jpg?1
  • Options
    HozHoz Cool Cat Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Speaker wrote: »
    So there are pictures of Bristol drinking.
    Really? While pregnant?

    Come on.

    Hoz on
  • Options
    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    MKR wrote: »
    Can someone with more knowledge of polling data tell me what the 538 electoral vote thing means?
    Each verticle line counts how many times this EV balance came up in his monte carlo simulation. In other words, Obama winning with 300-330 EV is the most likely outcome, but winning with just over 270 is more likely than 280-300 say.

    PantsB on
    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
  • Options
    Ghandi 2Ghandi 2 Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Arde wrote: »
    Wow, another one here:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/palins-church-may-have-sh_n_123205.html
    Speaking before the Pentecostal church, Palin painted the current war in Iraq as a messianic affair in which the United States could act out the will of the Lord.
    "Pray for our military men and women who are striving to do what is right. Also, for this country, that our leaders, our national leaders, are sending [U.S. soldiers] out on a task that is from God," she exhorted the congregants. "That's what we have to make sure that we're praying for, that there is a plan and that that plan is God's plan."

    Yeah, definitely crazy ol' Bush with a fun-pouch.
    I think you're misinterpreting that quote. People who believe in God always want everything they do to be the will of God. It doesn't make America messianic, it's just America doing the right thing, and she's asking people to pray please God I hope this is the right thing to do don't let us fuck this up. I do not find that an unreasonable position, even though I am no fan of Pentecostals and Charismatics.

    Ghandi 2 on
  • Options
    JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    MKR wrote: »
    Can someone with more knowledge of polling data tell me what the 538 electoral vote thing means?

    2822351246_c28e556a2c_o.png

    Every day, 538 takes the polling data that they have accumulated, and runs 10,000 simulations with a degree of randomness based off of the margin of errors from the polls.

    That histogram shows the results from all 10,000 simulations.

    Edit: Eh, it's TOTP, let's put the image back in.

    Jragghen on
  • Options
    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    galenblade wrote: »
    Apparently the McCain campaign's trying to get out ahead of the AIP thing.

    They just released Palin's voter registration forms that show she was always a Pub and never formally with the AIP.

    Awww, sad.

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
  • Options
    Locust76Locust76 Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    kildy wrote: »
    It seems the new attack ads from Obama are only going to be featuring cheery music. For some reason. It amuses me, if nothing else. Anyway: Same same same samity same.

    Meh. Stop with the same ads, start up with the let's fix shit ads again. I don't care how the same he is, I care how different you are.

    You can only say so much in 15-30 seconds...

    Locust76 on
  • Options
    ThanatosThanatos Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    MKR wrote: »
    Can someone with more knowledge of polling data tell me what the 538 electoral vote thing means?

    2822351246_c28e556a2c_o.png
    538 has odds of both candidates winning any given state. So, they take those odds (like, Obama has a 55% chance of winning New Mexico, a 65% chance of winning California, etc.) and they plug all fifty states into a computer. Then, they run a simulation of an election with those odds, and see how many electoral votes each candidate gets. Then, they do that 9,999 more times.

    X-axis is the number of electoral votes, and the Y-axis is the number of simulations that that candidate got that number of electoral votes. So, the most common outcome in 10,000 simulations is Obama getting 315ish electoral votes.

    Thanatos on
  • Options
    Brian888Brian888 Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    galenblade wrote: »
    Apparently the McCain campaign's trying to get out ahead of the AIP thing.

    They just released Palin's voter registration forms that show she was always a Pub and never formally with the AIP.


    I'm not overly familiar with voter registration records. Would it list all her party affiliations on that document since she first registered in 1982, or would it only list her most recent party?

    Brian888 on
  • Options
    PantsBPantsB Fake Thomas Jefferson Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Ghandi 2 wrote: »
    Arde wrote: »
    Wow, another one here:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/palins-church-may-have-sh_n_123205.html
    Speaking before the Pentecostal church, Palin painted the current war in Iraq as a messianic affair in which the United States could act out the will of the Lord.
    "Pray for our military men and women who are striving to do what is right. Also, for this country, that our leaders, our national leaders, are sending [U.S. soldiers] out on a task that is from God," she exhorted the congregants. "That's what we have to make sure that we're praying for, that there is a plan and that that plan is God's plan."

    Yeah, definitely crazy ol' Bush with a fun-pouch.
    I think you're misinterpreting that quote. People who believe in God always want everything they do to be the will of God. It doesn't make America messianic, it's just America doing the right thing, and she's asking people to pray please God I hope this is the right thing to do don't let us fuck this up. I do not find that an unreasonable position, even though I am no fan of Pentecostals and Charismatics.

    Watch the video. She also claims its "God's will" to get a pipeline in. Its full on batshit.

    PantsB on
    11793-1.png
    day9gosu.png
    QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
  • Options
    kildykildy Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Brian888 wrote: »
    galenblade wrote: »
    Apparently the McCain campaign's trying to get out ahead of the AIP thing.

    They just released Palin's voter registration forms that show she was always a Pub and never formally with the AIP.


    I'm not overly familiar with voter registration records. Would it list all her party affiliations on that document since she first registered in 1982, or would it only list her most recent party?

    People are questioning 1994, when the AIP says she was with them. That document seems to imply it's never changed from R, but I've not familiar enough with the voter reg system to know how the documents are stored.

    kildy on
  • Options
    psychotixpsychotix __BANNED USERS regular
    edited September 2008
    Speaker wrote: »
    So there are pictures of Bristol drinking.

    Now all we need is a fetal alcohol syndrome baby to really kick things off.
    Palin painted the current war in Iraq as a messianic affair in which the United States could act out the will of the Lord.

    Just what we need, more fundies.o_O

    psychotix on
  • Options
    Brian888Brian888 Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    kildy wrote: »
    Brian888 wrote: »
    galenblade wrote: »
    Apparently the McCain campaign's trying to get out ahead of the AIP thing.

    They just released Palin's voter registration forms that show she was always a Pub and never formally with the AIP.


    I'm not overly familiar with voter registration records. Would it list all her party affiliations on that document since she first registered in 1982, or would it only list her most recent party?

    People are questioning 1994, when the AIP says she was with them. That document seems to imply it's never changed from R, but I've not familiar enough with the voter reg system to know how the documents are stored.


    That's what I'd like to know.

    EDIT - Never mind. My Adobe reader was only loading the first page of the document.

    Brian888 on
  • Options
    ArdeArde Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    galenblade wrote: »
    Apparently the McCain campaign's trying to get out ahead of the AIP thing.

    They just released Palin's voter registration forms that show she was always a Pub and never formally with the AIP.

    Awww, sad.

    That doesn't seem to mesh with her video message for the 2008 AIP though.

    Arde on
    Wii code:3004 5525 7274 3361
    XBL Gametag: mailarde

    Screen Digest LOL3RZZ
  • Options
    SenjutsuSenjutsu thot enthusiast Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    This isn't so much a train-wreck as a meteor hurtling through the atmosphere at 76,000 miles an hour.

    Senjutsu on
  • Options
    AstraphobiaAstraphobia Lightning Bolt! Lightning Bolt! Root! Sleep! Death!Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    aogpjs.jpg

    Anyone want to send the Palin's a nice baby shower gift?

    Pretty good fit for when you're marching to the Holy Land to do God's work.

    Astraphobia on
  • Options
    HozHoz Cool Cat Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Arde wrote: »
    galenblade wrote: »
    Apparently the McCain campaign's trying to get out ahead of the AIP thing.

    They just released Palin's voter registration forms that show she was always a Pub and never formally with the AIP.

    Awww, sad.

    That doesn't seem to mesh with her video message for the 2008 AIP though.
    That one dude was just claiming that she was at their convention in that year, not that she was registered.

    Hoz on
  • Options
    kildykildy Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    It's entirely possible she was just hanging out with them, she seems to like them, but was never registered to vote with them. She obviously has a link, or she wouldn't be making them videos. That said, it's a guilt by association thing, even if it's slightly more associated than the things Obama gets tarred with.

    kildy on
  • Options
    sdrawkcaB emaNsdrawkcaB emaN regular
    edited September 2008
    where are the pics of bristol

    can someone verify this

    drinking while pregnant could take a story that the fundies view as heartwarming and most people view as off-putting but hardly something to make a decision over into outright non-stop media scandal that brings down a campaign

    sdrawkcaB emaN on
  • Options
    MrMonroeMrMonroe passed out on the floor nowRegistered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Though it is much akin to asking you all to help me punch myself in the face, what is the URL for the blog of that woman who was pissed off that Hillary lost? I want to see how that crowd is reacting to the Palin pick, but I never wanted to bookmark the site.

    MrMonroe on
  • Options
    SenjutsuSenjutsu thot enthusiast Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    kildy wrote: »
    It's entirely possible she was just hanging out with them, she seems to like them, but was never registered to vote with them. She obviously has a link, or she wouldn't be making them videos. That said, it's a guilt by association thing, even if it's slightly more associated than the things Obama gets tarred with.

    slightly?

    To the best of my knowledge Obama never travelled through time to give a speech to the weathermen

    Senjutsu on
  • Options
    kildykildy Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Not likely. Drinking underage is a pretty common southern thing, and at least in NH, too. It would only matter if she was pregnant.

    Heck, aren't colleges lobbying to lower the drinking age right now?

    kildy on
  • Options
    HozHoz Cool Cat Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    If this campaign isn't going down already then I'm not sure if it'll matter what Bristol does anymore.

    Hoz on
  • Options
    TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Drinking while pregnant WILL keep this story in the spotlight, but it is also a "pics or it didn't happen." I'm going to need to see evidence before I put any stock into the story at all.

    Tomanta on
  • Options
    JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    MrMonroe wrote: »
    Though it is much akin to asking you all to help me punch myself in the face, what is the URL for the blog of that woman who was pissed off that Hillary lost? I want to see how that crowd is reacting to the Palin pick, but I never wanted to bookmark the site.

    Shakesville?

    She's livid and views it as tokenism. They are, however, cataloging all of the femniist attacks on Palin because that's how they roll.

    Jragghen on
  • Options
    kildykildy Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Senjutsu wrote: »
    kildy wrote: »
    It's entirely possible she was just hanging out with them, she seems to like them, but was never registered to vote with them. She obviously has a link, or she wouldn't be making them videos. That said, it's a guilt by association thing, even if it's slightly more associated than the things Obama gets tarred with.

    slightly?

    To the best of my knowledge Obama never travelled through time to give a speech to the weathermen

    I was being nice! He totally knew someone who was involved with some people a long time ago!

    kildy on
  • Options
    Bionic MonkeyBionic Monkey Registered User, ClubPA regular
    edited September 2008
    So yeah scare everyone of the black dude with a funny name.

    That's not a republican talking point and not at all part of our strategy. Glad to see that you're already pre-hedging against a loss this year, though, maybe add a few Rolling Stone or Slate exposes on voting machines just to be on the safe side.

    Barack HUSSEIN Obama.

    Originally used in that context by a Democrat... your point?

    Oooohhh, "Democrats did it first"? That's your defense? A Democrat did it first. The Republicans made a fucking institution out of it.

    Bionic Monkey on
    sig_megas_armed.jpg
  • Options
    kildykildy Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    Tomanta wrote: »
    Drinking while pregnant WILL keep this story in the spotlight, but it is also a "pics or it didn't happen." I'm going to need to see evidence before I put any stock into the story at all.

    I looked out of curiosity, the page with the pics is hammered to shit (sheeple or something), the defense right now is that it's really her boyfriend's sister doing the drinking. Or something.

    kildy on
  • Options
    Bionic MonkeyBionic Monkey Registered User, ClubPA regular
    edited September 2008
    kildy wrote: »
    So yeah scare everyone of the black dude with a funny name.

    That's not a republican talking point and not at all part of our strategy. Glad to see that you're already pre-hedging against a loss this year, though, maybe add a few Rolling Stone or Slate exposes on voting machines just to be on the safe side.

    Barack HUSSEIN Obama.

    Originally used in that context by a Democrat... your point?

    Recycling attacks doesn't make them your attacks as well now?

    Interesting. By that logic there's no such thing as negative campaigning because it's all been done before. It's like the lazy man's "every story's been written" defense for politics.

    Well, that, plus McCain has expressed that he has zero tolerance for that kind of thing.

    I'll keep that in mind next time you use something on DailyKos to condemn Obama's camp.

    Bionic Monkey on
    sig_megas_armed.jpg
  • Options
    ÆthelredÆthelred Registered User regular
    edited September 2008
    PantsB wrote: »
    Hey Pants, can you drum up as short summation for those who can't watch video at work?

    Its entitled on Youtube Barack Obama on Gustav: "We Rise and Fall as One Nation"

    The first half is fairly standard Obama stump fair with some Labor Day union emphasis. He talks about coming together over natural disasters because we are the united states of America.
    Because If there's a poor child, that's my child! If there's a senior who is having trouble, thats my grandparent. If there's a guy who has lost his job, that's my brother! If there's a woman out there without healthcare, that's my sister!
    Tony Blair wrote:
    One Britain. That is the patriotism for the future. Where your child in distress is my child; your parent ill and in pain is my parent; your friend unemployed and helpless, my friend; your neighbour, my neighbour.

    Obama-Biden: Plagiarising Labour Politicians Since '87.
    I know it's all generic rhetoric anyone could use.

    Æthelred on
    pokes: 1505 8032 8399
This discussion has been closed.