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[The Resistance: Avalon (Game 2)]: Quest 5 is Over, and Thus Ends Our Game.

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    InkSplatInkSplat 100%ed Bad Rats. Registered User regular
    If jdarksun is a minion then Kaneski is innocent and Rhan9 is also a minion. In which case either Davoid or discrider are minions.

    As such, the only safe team is te other five knights, just like Phyphor is saying.

    I'm fully on his side here. If you guys propose any team but that, you are crazy. And Davoid, if you aren't a Minion, that's the team you'll propose. Putting yourself on a team at this point isn't going to help.

    Origin for Dragon Age: Inquisition Shenanigans: Inksplat776
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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Kaneski is good:
    two of {jdarksun, discrider, davoid} - discounting myself as I voted against the mission and pushed a better one

    I don't think this is particularly fair.
    First your mission was based on a flawed premise that
    Phyphor wrote: »
    we know that one of (kenaski, rhan) is a spy
    when both of them could have been spies if kaneski + davoid + rhan were all evil and one was calling evil on another to create a false dichotomy between the two.

    And second, I have had trouble trying to find out which team you actually proposed, since you didn't repeat it on later pages, and it's sandwiched between the set analysis and somewhat contradictory derived rules.
    That is, you nominated a better team, but then you both allowed it to get buried and coincidentally helped to do so yourself.

    But largely, I don't want to be wrong again just because I assume that you're clean because you've said so.

    Yeah no. I suggested it multiple times and rejected everything that wasn't that. Just because I didn't shout it doesn't mean I buried it. I just gave up on getting people to do it

    It also wasn't based on a flawed premise, while it was possible both rhan and kaneski were evil that wasn't the time to do the whole WIFOM scenario when I was concerned with isolating davoid and kaneski, and rhans alignment is not relevant to the kaneski is evil path

    But whatever. Rhan is still evil. Jdarksun is still the sole intersection. Then pick one of me, you and davoid

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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    On and that bit you quoted? Doesn't change a thing if you change to to "at least one of"

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    jdarksunjdarksun Struggler VARegistered User regular
    I know I'm not evil, so according to Phyphor's logic, one of SeGaTai and Professor Phobos is.

    And yet he wants to put them both on this "supposedly good" team.

    No way, will be voting it down if it comes up.

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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Nope. If you're claiming good you want to push the kaneski/davoid are evil path. It is impossible for you and kaneski to both be good

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    discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    On and that bit you quoted? Doesn't change a thing if you change to to "at least one of"

    I didn't say it did.
    I was just listing the reasons why I gave up trying to figure out your team yesterday.
    The point is, proposing a better team but being obtuse about it doesn't really help.

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    jdarksunjdarksun Struggler VARegistered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Nope. If you're claiming good you want to push the kaneski/davoid are evil path. It is impossible for you and kaneski to both be good
    So what you're saying is, your plan has a lot going against it.

    Not sellin' me on this, Zakharov.

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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited February 2014
    Uh, here's where I outline the two cases
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Well, if we think kaneski is good, then our team is: kaneski, me, disc, ink & davoid because there can only be one spy if kaneski is good
    If kaneski is evil, then davoid is too and that mission fails. So we probably shouldn't send kaneski & davoid together
    So, send one of (kaneski, davoid) (kaneski since he is more confirmed) and then fill out the other 4 from the remaining 6

    And then realize this team is optimal
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Alternately, if we do send kaneski plus davoid, me disc and ink and that fails - which we can safely do - that kaneski and davoid must both be spies


    And again
    Phyphor wrote: »
    However for your team, it is possible that someone other than jdarksun failed that mission, and for davoid and rhan to be evil and kaneski good, so we may end up getting a wrong conclusion

    If we do kaneski plus the second set I mentioned then it can only fail if kaneski is evil - as it will for your mission too - however there is a certainty there

    These posts are even in a row!
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Basically we either send kaneski me davoid disc ink or we do not send kaneski and davoid together
    I'm sorry. In the future I will write it as kaneski me davoid disc ink




    And you then agree!
    discrider wrote: »
    Phyphor's right. I don't like the look of having Davoid + Kaneski and Davoid + Sega/Professor on the same team. Too much chance of a double fail from the Lady being passed around the evil team or potentially from SeGa or Prof just laying low the first two missions for whatever reason and teaming up with an evil Davoid.
    At least separate the two cases if we don't want to eliminate Davoid from the team entirely, just so we know which case causes the mission to fail if it does.

    But you don't mention jdarksun. Instead you focus on sega/phobos. But why? jdark was also on the failing team! And then you voted to approve this last mission with jdark (and davoid and kaneski) despite your ostensible objections - a team which you actually proposed!

    And let's see how the erstwhile team of jdark, discrider and rhan voted for the last little while. Mission 4, do or die time
    ====
    Quest 4, Vote 1 InkSplat proposed {SeGaTai, Professor Phobos, Kaneski, Davoid, and InkSplat}: Rejected 3-6.

    Ayes: Professor Phobos, InkSplat, Davoid
    Nays: SeGaTai, Kaneski, Phyphor, jdarksun, Rhan9, discrider

    ====
    Quest 4, Vote 2: Rhan9 proposed {Phyphor, discrider, Professor Phobos, InkSplat Rhan9}: Rejected 2-7.

    Ayes: Rhan9, discrider
    Nays: SeGaTai, Professor Phobos, Kaneski, Phyphor, jdarksun, InkSplat, Davoid

    ====
    Quest 4, Vote 3: discrider proposed {Kaneski, jdarksun, Phyphor, discrider, Davoid}: Accepted 5-4.

    Ayes: Professor Phobos, jdarksun, Rhan9, discrider, Davoid
    Nays: SeGaTai, Kaneski, Phyphor, InkSplat

    Vote 1: clean team. jdark/disc/rhan vote against!
    Vote 2: disc & rhan. rhan and disc are the only votes for! Proposed by rhan. I'm guessing jdark voted against because come on, proposed by someone publicly announced to be a spy?
    Vote 3: disc & jdark. All vote for! Proposed by disc

    Everything fits

    Phyphor on
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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited February 2014
    I'm guessing that either jdark is oberon and announced himself by failing mission 3 (likely) or rhan is and was announced by kaneski. There may have been some hints, or the construction of rhan's team may have been coincidence having two spies. jdark's voting also makes sense for oberon. Voted against until he got on and then probably just hoped for the best; or reasoned that only the other spy would accept the outed spy's team

    Phyphor on
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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Anyway, I am even more convinced than ever and basically done. I will reject any team that isn't Kaneski, Phyphor, SeGaTai, InkSplat, Phobos and I strongly urge all other loyal knights to do the same. If the spies are anyone else (kaneski/davoid/?), then congratulations, you've done a fine job and managed to plant exactly the right amount of evidence to implicate a completely different set of people!

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    discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited February 2014
    Phyphor wrote: »
    These posts are even in a row!

    That's the entire point!

    Of those 4 posts, only 2 contain the teams you were proposing. So on scan it became difficult to figure out where exactly the team was.
    Phyphor wrote: »
    And you then agree!
    discrider wrote: »
    Phyphor's right. I don't like the look of having Davoid + Kaneski and Davoid + Sega/Professor on the same team. Too much chance of a double fail from the Lady being passed around the evil team or potentially from SeGa or Prof just laying low the first two missions for whatever reason and teaming up with an evil Davoid.
    At least separate the two cases if we don't want to eliminate Davoid from the team entirely, just so we know which case causes the mission to fail if it does.

    But you don't mention jdarksun. Instead you focus on sega/phobos. But why? jdark was also on the failing team! And then you voted to approve this last mission with jdark (and davoid and kaneski) despite your ostensible objections - a team which you actually proposed!

    Yep. That makes perfect sense there. I sure should have railed against the JDark + Davoid combination that was clearly on that proposed mission.

    Oh wait. It wasn't.

    The fact that -a couple of days later- I had changed my mind about this combination (and apparently become fixated on the wrong players) doesn't make the original logic unsound, nor the swaying opinion evil.

    But hey, if you want to truss me up as a bad guy for no reason, then I guess we're one step closer to losing, and you'll forgive me if I find you suspicious for it.


    Also, I'd suggest, whilst the large bold italicised font is nice, bolding is meant for actual player team proposals, so maybe we should keep to italics only for team proposals from players not leading?

    discrider on
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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    3 of them. And the fourth references a previous post. But I guess reading is hard!

    And my point was that you went and included jdark for exactly the same reasons you were excluding sega/phobos! You were objecting to their inclusion on the basis that it was pulling from multiple possible spy sets, and yet went and did exactly that! Not only that, but you literally took my team, pulled off InkSplat - who had only been on a single, successful mission (#2) - and put on jdark, who was the person who replaced InkSplat on the only mission that failed!

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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited February 2014
    From your proposal post:
    Rhan9 is evil. Inksplat is evil. And either SeGaTai or Professor Phobos also evil.

    Okay, so even in this scenario my proposed team would have win the game (since my team was predicated only on kaneski being good).

    Furthermore, you propose rhan as oberon. Yet are suspicious of phobos (who you think might be evil) of adding his masoned evil (inksplat) to... the team phobos was already on, thus creating a potential double fail? What?

    Alternately, if phobos was oberon there would be no knowledge, so you would have to suggest that both evils decided to not fail the mission because they were worried that an unknown one would

    Phyphor on
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    discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited February 2014
    Phyphor wrote: »
    3 of them. And the fourth references a previous post. But I guess reading is hard!

    And my point was that you went and included jdark for exactly the same reasons you were excluding sega/phobos! You were objecting to their inclusion on the basis that it was pulling from multiple possible spy sets, and yet went and did exactly that! Not only that, but you literally took my team, pulled off InkSplat - who had only been on a single, successful mission (#2) - and put on jdark, who was the person who replaced InkSplat on the only mission that failed!

    Yes, reading -is- hard now that I've only got a couple of leisure hours a day (when I'm also tired), and no access to the internet otherwise.
    In the meantime, I have a good 2-3 hours to think on this without access to the thread. So I wound up just taking the results from the thread, analysing them without your input, finding that we come to much the same conclusions with regards to sets of evil/good people when I came back, never finding your team suggestion, and then nominating my own instead so that you all didn't have to wait an extra day whilst I request Phyphor to post his suggestion again.

    So yes, of course my team looked a lot like yours. It would be pretty impossible for it not to (unless you're Kaneski and being contrary).

    discrider on
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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Anyway, if you are good, then we've both made big analysis mistakes! No biggie, just a game

    My conclusion of you (probably), jdark/rhan (definitely) stems from kaneski being good. So, assuming he is evil and (necessarily) davoid is evil, who is the third?

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    HedgethornHedgethorn Associate Professor of Historical Hobby Horses In the Lions' DenRegistered User regular
    edited February 2014
    Because the Rule post got a little buried, @Rhan9 still needs to use the Lady, and he may not use it on Davoid or Kaneski. After Rhan has done so, then Davoid may put forward the next team.

    Hedgethorn on
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    Professor PhobosProfessor Phobos Registered User regular
    I am good and agree with Phyphor. I will do what Phyphor says.

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    discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Anyway, if you are good, then we've both made big analysis mistakes! No biggie, just a game

    My conclusion of you (probably), jdark/rhan (definitely) stems from kaneski being good. So, assuming he is evil and (necessarily) davoid is evil, who is the third?

    Well, I had sort of hoped jdark, but obviously the 3 way fail didn't appear. Same goes for Phyphor and me I guess. Still, they could have used vote signalling to determine who should fail.
    Maybe InkSplat? It would explain why Kaneski waited so long to fail.
    Or it could still be Rhan.
    SeGaTai and Professor Phobos are clean.

    So InkSplat or Rhan are the likely evils based on straight no unnecessary double or triple fails.

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    InkSplatInkSplat 100%ed Bad Rats. Registered User regular
    I still don't get how I'm the evil guy when I've been on one mission and it passed.

    What exactly have I done? You're just repeating jdarksun, and given we're all pretty sure he's a Minion, that isn't working for you, discrider.

    Origin for Dragon Age: Inquisition Shenanigans: Inksplat776
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    discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    InkSplat wrote: »
    I still don't get how I'm the evil guy when I've been on one mission and it passed.

    What exactly have I done? You're just repeating jdarksun, and given we're all pretty sure he's a Minion, that isn't working for you, discrider.

    You were on one mission and it passed.
    If Kaneski is evil, then why didn't that mission fail?
    Really, either Kaneski is Oberon and passed the first two missions because he was unsure of the evilness of the other players, or Kaneski knew you had been appended to mission 2 and didn't want to double fail it.

    And I was just accusing you there because I had just enumerated all the possibilities and only you or Rhan makes sense compared to everyone else who's been on a mission with Kaneski and not double/triple failed.

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    InkSplatInkSplat 100%ed Bad Rats. Registered User regular
    Because Kaneski isn't evil? Both missions jdarksun has been on has failed. And if you're saying Rhan9 is also evil, why did Kaneski out him? If Kaneski is Oberon, that is the perfect opportunity to reveal yourself to the other Minions.

    Your logic is pretty shoddy.

    Origin for Dragon Age: Inquisition Shenanigans: Inksplat776
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    discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited February 2014
    InkSplat wrote: »
    Because Kaneski isn't evil? Both missions jdarksun has been on has failed. And if you're saying Rhan9 is also evil, why did Kaneski out him? If Kaneski is Oberon, that is the perfect opportunity to reveal yourself to the other Minions.

    Your logic is pretty shoddy.

    First, I was just trying to help with Phyphor's speculation about who the third evil would be if Kaneski is evil.

    Second, both missions JDark has been on have been with Kaneski. So there is the large potential there of a double fail in mission 3, and a triple fail in mission 4.

    Third, I already explained why Kaneski would out him. To create this specific scenario where we are wondering if Kaneski is evil or if Rhan is evil, leaving one or the other open to jump on missions under the guise of being honest.

    And fourth, the first mission is likely to succeed regardless of who's on it, because it's far too small a pool to fish through for the evil. So that leaves mission 2 in which Kaneski succeeded. And considering there was no information given in mission 1 about who might be an evil minion or not, there is no way for Oberon to know whether a double fail is likely or possible. So better to wait another round to ensure one of the other minions doesn't fail before failing yourself in mission 3.

    discrider on
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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited February 2014
    Better a double fail on mission 2 than risking a pass though. Some of those people will have to be reused in later missions anyway, but a 1/2/4 win is very possible. Even if you manage to fail 4, you end up in a situation like this where team good has very good vote records (do-or-die mission for evil) and more information

    Keep in mind that a random team 1 makeup in this situation has about a 1 in 4 chance of being clean while a double evil on a random team 2 has about a 6% chance. Less than that if you factor out the likelyhood the proposer was also evil and so could control who got added

    Phyphor on
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    discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Phyphor wrote: »
    Keep in mind that a random team 1 makeup in this situation has about a 1 in 4 chance of being clean while a double evil on a random team 2 has about a 6% chance. Less than that if you factor out the likelyhood the proposer was also evil and so could control who got added

    This is inaccurate. Since we were assuming Kaneski was evil for the scenario, the correct probability of pulling a second evil for mission 2 would be 1 in 3. 1 in 9 to get the two masons on the same mission in this scenario. Slightly more if you want to consider the possibility of two evils in the initial team.

    That is, the fact that we're only looking at a subset of the total probability space has increased the likelihood of a double evil on mission 2 and 3. It won't be 1 in 3 because we have to consider the "Rhan is evil" branch, but it's going to be more than your 6%.

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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Assuming kaneski is evil yes. That 6% is the chance to even get a double spy at all

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    Rhan9Rhan9 Registered User regular
    Dang it, wasn't able to post for a day or so. I wasn't aware Davoid had already used it, but that lets me know that those two are guaranteed evil.

    In which case I don't really care who to Lady, so I'll use it on discrider to move the game forward.

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    HedgethornHedgethorn Associate Professor of Historical Hobby Horses In the Lions' DenRegistered User regular
    PM sent to Rhan. @Davoid is free to proceed with team building

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    Rhan9Rhan9 Registered User regular
    Alright, I've got the three minions pegged now. Discrider is evil, as are Davoid and Kaneski.
    Hence, I will likely reject any offers from those three.

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    KaneskiKaneski Registered User regular
    I'm totally with the Phyphor on this one. Saves me largely the same analysis. Would've posted, but... 44 degree heat and I do not mix.

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    discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    Kaneski wrote: »
    I'm totally with the Phyphor on this one. Saves me largely the same analysis. Would've posted, but... 44 degree heat and I do not mix.
    I'm not.

    I say we switch Phyphor off the team and put Davoid on.

    Davoid's just as confirmed than Phyphor, that is not at all, but at least Davoid's not playing like I would if I were evil and felt like removing the social elements from the game.

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    InkSplatInkSplat 100%ed Bad Rats. Registered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    Kaneski wrote: »
    I'm totally with the Phyphor on this one. Saves me largely the same analysis. Would've posted, but... 44 degree heat and I do not mix.
    I'm not.

    I say we switch Phyphor off the team and put Davoid on.

    Davoid's just as confirmed than Phyphor, that is not at all, but at least Davoid's not playing like I would if I were evil and felt like removing the social elements from the game.

    Wait, what? How is Phyphor removing the social elements from the game? He's been doing most of the talking with you for a damn good while.

    I was pretty confident you were loyal up until the past couple days, but you're pretty quickly dissolving that with accusations that make absolutely zero sense.

    Origin for Dragon Age: Inquisition Shenanigans: Inksplat776
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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    I'm "removing the social elements" through approaching it as a logic problem first and a game of social deduction second; in an attempt to base my conclusions on something other than blind flailing

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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    edited February 2014
    Also, since my conculsion puts the third mafia directly in the set of {me, davoid, disc} and I'm relatively confident disc is the third one now davoid can go on I guess. In any case, davoid & disc can't both be evil, so it's not like disc is arguing to put the other evil on

    Phyphor on
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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Rhan9 wrote: »
    Alright, I've got the three minions pegged now. Discrider is evil, as are Davoid and Kaneski.
    Hence, I will likely reject any offers from those three.

    Nay. Discrider would not being going against this plan if this was the evil team composition. Because I'm arguing to send kaneski... and he's arguing directly against that proposal

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    PhyphorPhyphor Building Planet Busters Tasting FruitRegistered User regular
    Wait!

    From the lady:
    good(rhan)->evil(disc)
    good(kaneski)->evil(rhan)
    evil(kaneski)->evil(davoid)
    good(davoid)->good(kaneski)

    From disc's passionate argument against my proposed team which would let him win by sending kaneski:
    evil(disc)->good(kaneski); transitively evil(disc)->evil(rhan).

    Kaneski is evil path:
    Evils are kaneski, davoid and one of rhan (kaneski was telling the truth) and disc (kaneski was lying therefore rhan is telling the truth). However, evil(disc)->good(kaneski) thus it can't be disc in this path.

    So therefore, the team must be kaneski, davoid and rhan OR jdark, rhan and one of {disc, davoid, phyphor}. So rhan is evil regardless

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    InkSplatInkSplat 100%ed Bad Rats. Registered User regular
    But, at this point in the game it is a logic problem. Going on feelings at this point is how the minions win. So... arguing against that is totally anti-Arthur.

    Origin for Dragon Age: Inquisition Shenanigans: Inksplat776
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    DavoidDavoid Registered User regular
    Woah sorry dudes, was at a funeral for the past 2 days. Will be back, read this thing, and put together the A-team.

    rqv6.png
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    Rhan9Rhan9 Registered User regular
    Phyphor's got some fancy thinking done there. Apparently I'm always evil. Hrmm.

    Anyhow, I'll just wait for a team suggestion, I've got little to contribute beyond my Lady results.

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    discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    edited February 2014
    Phyphor wrote: »
    I'm "removing the social elements" through approaching it as a logic problem first and a game of social deduction second; in an attempt to base my conclusions on something other than blind flailing

    See, I'm not arguing it's a bad approach, it's just that all the fun is in the blind flailing. Pretty much my credo is : "Sub-optimal play is fun."
    (Case in point: The Set Phalla, where I used the optimal strategy to make it not fun for anyone)

    But the main point is, if I wanted to analyse everything and prevent anyone from making a mistake, and still be evil, Phyphor's play mirrors how I'd be playing that.
    You just rely on the rest of the players making a mistake, so you can point at them, and then write yourself off because your proposed plan would've resulted in victory for the good guys.

    discrider on
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    InkSplatInkSplat 100%ed Bad Rats. Registered User regular
    edited February 2014
    discrider wrote: »
    Phyphor wrote: »
    I'm "removing the social elements" through approaching it as a logic problem first and a game of social deduction second; in an attempt to base my conclusions on something other than blind flailing

    See, I'm not arguing it's a bad approach, it's just that all the fun is in the blind flailing. Pretty much my credo is : "Sub-optimal play is fun."
    (Case in point: The Set Phalla, where I used the optimal strategy to make it not fun for anyone)

    But the main point is, if I wanted to analyse everything and prevent anyone from making a mistake, and still be evil, Phyphor's play mirrors how I'd be playing that.
    You just rely on the rest of the players making a mistake, so you can point at them, and then write yourself off because your proposed plan would've resulted in victory for the good guys.

    Um.. no. sub-optimal play is how the Minions win in this make-or-break last mission.

    The rest of the missions are the flail-y ones. But when it gets to this point, you break it down--thats what all the other missions are for, collecting data on votes and stuff specifically so you can break it down exactly like this. It isn't like the game has been like this the whole time--there has been plenty of flailing.

    But wanting to flail on the last mission is straight-up Minion.

    InkSplat on
    Origin for Dragon Age: Inquisition Shenanigans: Inksplat776
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