So my ballot hadn't arrived yet but the tracker said it was mailed and my GF who lives with me got mine. Called my registrar, got a person, they checked, check the address, and the Post Office returned it as "undeliverable." They are resending it back out.
If you are in Fairfax your ballot went out probably a week or two ago if you are voting by mail. If you haven't gotten it, check the tracker and call them. They are super nice and want you to vote. The Post Office on the other hand is less reliable.
I plan on returning ours via the drop boxes they put in the library near by now.
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
I am completely baffled by these stories I've been seeing about the race for Governor being a toss up. In the Presidential election Biden beat Trump by like 10 points, and Youngkin is very much in the mold of Trump. Do people dislike McAuliffe for some reason? He seemed to be a pretty solid Governor in his first time in the job.
it's going to probably be a tougher year for Democrats just in general but also i think there's a lot of media and campaign interest in promoting the idea of a horse race because that's where the money comes from
I am completely baffled by these stories I've been seeing about the race for Governor being a toss up. In the Presidential election Biden beat Trump by like 10 points, and Youngkin is very much in the mold of Trump. Do people dislike McAuliffe for some reason? He seemed to be a pretty solid Governor in his first time in the job.
Polling has consistently had a small (3-5 points) McAulliffe lead. But polling consistently blows the VA Governor's race it seems like and it's not as close as expected.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
I am completely baffled by these stories I've been seeing about the race for Governor being a toss up. In the Presidential election Biden beat Trump by like 10 points, and Youngkin is very much in the mold of Trump. Do people dislike McAuliffe for some reason? He seemed to be a pretty solid Governor in his first time in the job.
Polling has consistently had a small (3-5 points) McAulliffe lead. But polling consistently blows the VA Governor's race it seems like and it's not as close as expected.
2017: Polls showed GOP up +2, Dem up +11. Sooo...yeah.
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
still i mean
i'd rather it appear close and motivate the less informed to get out and vote than have everyone assume VA is solidly blue and stay home
i'd rather it appear close and motivate the less informed to get out and vote than have everyone assume VA is solidly blue and stay home
Absolutely, and that is always a worry in the back of my mind. It can be quite the challenge to motivate Democratic voters at the best of times, and these stupid off year elections are worse than most. I personally vote in every election I am eligible for because I don't take wins for granted (and we not that long ago had a literal tie in Virginia), and I don't want to end up like Bart Simpson in his election. I just don't understand how Youngkin can be doing so well in polls when he's a Trump toady, but then again I don't really understand how anybody even remotely like Trump breaks 27% support.
After Terry McAuliffe’s Virginia gubernatorial campaign released a social media campaign pointing out Glenn Youngkin’s role in purchasing Taylor Swift’s master recordings back in 2019, the Democratic Party of Virginia recently started selling a line of “Swifties Against Youngkin” merchandise, which included hoodies, mugs, and buttons emblazoned with the phrase in bright pink. This morning, the Twitter account belonging to the Democratic Party of Virginia pointed followers to the new items: “tis the damn season to get your swifties against youngkin merchandise,” the tweet read, with a link to its online store.
But then the merchandise was yanked from the website with no explanation. At first, the products disappeared but there was still a category listed for “Swifties Against Youngkin” items. Later, that too was scrubbed from the site. The Democratic Party of Virginia’s tweet about the products was also deleted.
So what happened? At the moment, it’s a mystery. A spokesperson for the Democratic Party of Virginia declined to comment, and Taylor Swift’s publicist has not yet responded to our queries.
Youngkin was previously the co-CEO of the Carlyle Group, which funded the purchase of Swift’s master recordings. Swift has been very public about her dissatisfaction with the situation, to the point where she has been re-recording her first six studio albums so fans can listen to versions that belong to her. She released “Taylor’s Version” of the 2008 album Fearless this past April, and is putting out her version of the 2012 album Red next month. McAuliffe’s campaign has been trying to use Swift-fan ire against Youngkin through its digital campaign, as well as tweeting out references to Swift songs and coopting the hashtag #WeStandWithTaylor.
I've been a bit iffy about the ads I have seen (repeatedly) touting how McAuliffe backs law enforcement unreservedly. It's been very weird seeing the Democratic candidate purposely putting out ads that sound very much like a Republican, and vice versa. I mean I have no doubt that Youngkin is worse (or at least no better) than McAuliffe on this and basically every other issue, but I can see how confusion could be cropping up for people that don't take as avid an interest in elections as I do.
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
in a shocking twist, the redistricting commission continues to fail at its one job
The Virginia Redistricting Commission’s first-ever attempt to draw fair political maps collapsed in spectacular fashion Friday, when frustrated Democrats walked out of a meeting after Republicans rebuffed their suggestions for reaching a compromise.
The commission, which has been holding regular meetings for more than a month, never came close to reaching an agreement on final General Assembly maps. Partisanship dominated the process from the start, with the commission hiring two teams of overtly partisan consultants and repeatedly failing to agree on how to merge two sets of maps.
The process now appears headed to the Supreme Court of Virginia, unless the three Democratic walkouts change their minds and agree to meet again. But that appears unlikely based on how Friday’s meeting ended.
so on to the majority Republican VA Supreme Court the new map will likely go
I'm not taking this one for granted, I feel like enough of McAuliffe's ads are questionably targeted while Youngkin is busy pretending to be a Democrat that it is likely to be closer than I would hope. On the plus side I have seen a ton of "get out the vote" ads so hopefully people do actually go out and vote. With as much as Virginia dislikes Trump this shouldn't be close but I fear it will be.
I think some have HoD currently as a toss-up. IIRC Governor race is lean D and I think AG and Lt Gov are in slightly better spots. Regardless, I'd never really take any race for granted because if enough people don't show up, while enough others vote for the other guy, you get someone you don't want in office.
I think currently people are being driven insane by currently early voting stats. Vpap.org has been keeping track of the current total and has tabs on past elections. Like there is double the votes for early voting compared to 2017 and we're not even to election day, but early voting was much harder in that election. Compared to 2020, 406K is way behind, but again that was a presidential election, so it was going to have higher turnout. Then there is the whole thing of covid more or less being in check in the state and that might be prompting people to wait until election day. Finally, the GOP has had to peddle Trump's bullshit lie, so there is also the question about if we're going to see the GOP shoot itself in the foot by not showing up. Then again, we're also seeing alignment where the GOP is losing the very reliable college educated vote for the group that has a high school education or less, which is a group that is more likely to miss elections on this state's half-assed election schedule.
If I'm remembering things correctly, today is the first early in person vote on Saturday we get for this election. We only get two such days, with the 30th of this month being the last one. Both days are suppose to see the highest turnout for early in person voting. currently, Virginia Public Access Project's site on early voting has the current early person votes and returned mail votes at 610,554 as of 10/22. So we're passed a fifth of the total turnout that was seen in the 2017 gubernatorial election. Not going to list the to total early vote for that year because it's just not comparable with all the changes to early voting.
Not sure if vpap.org will have the totals updated tomorrow or not. Figure today's turnout is probably going to be one of the better snapshots of how things are looking. Right now if you go to that site and look at district break down. It's a bit hard to get a feel for the partisan turnout. Though interesting to note that if you select all (in person votes, mail ballot requests not returned and returned mail ballots), 4 of the top 5 districts for early voting are held by democrats and the only one held by a republican comes in at 3rd. That would be the 1st district and that might not be a good sign for republicans when we consider that the 1st is likely a swing district at this point, much in the way that the 7th, which is 2nd on early voting. In fact, if I were the GOP, the numbers out of the 9th district should be cause for concern. It has the lowest levels of early voting and is the most republican district in the state. I mean yes, democrats might need to be worried about totals out of 3rd and 4th district but IIRC both districts have large black population, so the totals there might shoot way up after today. If that happens and the 9th is still lagging way behind, it's over 10K behind the 3rd, without much change in it's total, then that could be a very, very bad sign for the GOP. I mean, if we're going to argue voter enthusiasm is a thing, one would think that would carry over into higher early voting because you can do that in person and Trump has largely attacked mail in voting. In fact, the 9th isn't dead last on early in person voting, I do believe it was beating the 3rd district by something like 200 votes and that might not last after today.
One thing we're all going to likely be annoyed by is the bullshit red mirage because the state still has a half-assed approach to counting early votes. So expect dumb wingnut fuckers to piss and moan about how the election was stolen because everything was red before the vote count finished. Thankfully, this will be the last year of such nonsense in Virginia because next year, they'll be using a more sane approach to counting the early vote, that is likely to be less prone to red mirage bullshit. That said, if the red mirage doesn't appear or seems meager, that's likely going to be the first sign of the GOP having a very bad night.
So yeah early voting outside a few locations opened up. Our library near by opened up. We are going to drop our mail in ballots there in the drop box.
Also Biden is stumping in Arlington on Tuesday. We have gotten 5 cards/mailers from real people in the last week between the two of us. Yeah the Dems have ramped up things.
So yeah early voting outside a few locations opened up. Our library near by opened up. We are going to drop our mail in ballots there in the drop box.
Also Biden is stumping in Arlington on Tuesday. We have gotten 5 cards/mailers from real people in the last week between the two of us. Yeah the Dems have ramped up things.
I got a text to my 540 number when I haven't been in the state in a decade and a half
ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
on the one hand i have gotten so much mail from the Dems this cycle and it's good to know the push is on and they are doing what they can to drive engagement
on the other hand i voted a month ago please stop sending me mail
Well about another 43K worth of early votes added. Not sure if that's a full count from yesterday or not. The 3rd is pretty close to overtaking the 9th district on early in person voting. Bit surprised that the 3rd didn't see a huge jump, but if vpap only has a partial count of yesterday's vote, that would do it, but pretty sure that is the total count for yesterday's vote. We'll also see if the first district falls to 5th on total early vote, it's down to 4th and the next district is only like 4k behind and that's a democratic held district.
Trying to remember if it's the first or second early in person vote on Saturday that gets the largest turnout. We still have the 30th. Wondering if we'll see the totals break one million or not. End of November saw a ramp of up early vote turn out.
Edit: Wow, didn't realize there was early voting on the 17th, which a Sunday and also early voting today. So might actually see another big uptick in areas with a large black population that goes to Church, if someone is organizing Souls to the Polls setups because today is the last day to early vote on Sunday. Bit surprised they don't have it open on the 31st, but it is what it is. Though in m y defense Chesapeake doesn't have early voting on Sunday.
One thing that people have been noting and it may or may not be a bad sign for the GOP. Is that while the traditional R activists have had a steady early vote turnout, it's pretty damn low in new areas that are Trump realms. Now these fuckers might show up on election day, but there is a good indication that this will be a good indication of how much of a factor Trump will be in R turnout when he isn't on the ballot. The Youngkin campaign has made a point of not appearing in public with Trump and Pence and have tried to limit how visible his ties are with Trump. So in a way, even though Trump and his ilk have been farting around this election, they have been nearly that visible and that does make this a race where they are effectively off the ballot. It does tell you some things about Virginia and the 2022 midterms in this state next year. Even if Trump is a good motivator for their new base, the GOP seems to believe firmly that advertising their ties to him is likely to do them more harm than good in this state. On the other hand, the democrats have done a good job of tying Youngkin to Trump, we might see him eat a double whammy of not motivating the Trumper base, while still having that connection used to bludgeon his bid to a fine pulp.
So got my first mailer from the GOP candidate for my state house. Now he won't win. This area went 85% or something like that for Biden. Is a pretty plugged in area of government workers.
But man it was a trip.
Straight up bolded wording targeting George Soros. Claims about the curriculum being guided by the Southern Poverty Law Center. Scare tactics about immigrants. Use of critical race theory. Also complaints about or 5 cent plastic bag tax. And the last one was "Drag Queen Story Time" which did happen because introducing kids to people who don't fit in normal gender conforming lens is totally scary and we shouldn't do it I guess.
Also the list of things they said we should be angry was a list of things the Republican party has done including reducing freedom, promoting hate, and basically being fascist.
So in theory, we should probably clear 1 million early votes. Assuming that in person voting and mail in votes don't collapse. It's estimated that we can probably expect 2.5-3 million votes. Anyways a couple things to consider as we approach election night that the dipshit beltway media isn't considering.
-Despite some district changes a few years ago. The state is still in a republican gerrymander and the data used for all the districts is 10 years old. Not to sound like I'm moving goal posts because I'm not, the republicans can't just pick up a few seats in HoD to have a good night, not even picking up the chamber because again the state is a GOP gerrymander with outdated districts.
-Likewise New Jersey is having elections and I do believe they are a democratic gerrymander. So if someone wants to do tea reading into what 2022 will look like, you have to factor there races in. Hell, want to say there are a few other states that have shitty off year elections. Anyways, you need one party to do what would be considered good for each state to do that in both. If you don't get that result, the outcomes aren't going to tell you much. I mean the GOP may have a good night in VA, but if they get crushed in NJ after factoring in where the democrats would have to land because of the gerrymander. Then it's a mixed bag that doesn't speak of momentum towards anyone going into 2022.
Also we have some bullshit and wildcards in play for the state.
-The fucking traitor to democracy that is DeJoy is still postmaster general and he is still fucking with the mail. The state actually filed a lawsuit against the post office over this. We really ought to have a reasonable timeline for ballots to be received so that fuckers like DeJoy have less incentive to fuck with election mail. Any mailed in ballot in VA, that is postmarked by election day, must get to the registrars office by noon of Friday (Nov 5). I mean it could be worse because I know there are places that toss ballots postmarked before election day because they don't arrive on election day. Given the time allotted for certification, we could probably allow for up to two weeks. I mean worse case, some people end up having to learn this thing called patience. Anyways, still a risk that a number of people get fucked out of their right to vote because DeJoy's fuckery makes their ballot show up too late.
-It's not entirely clear what the big lie rhetoric is going to do to the overall GOP vote. Right now, it appears to be depressing Trumpy areas that were republican before Trump. This is to say that the polling could be off because a bunch of republicans decide that voting has no value as a result of believing that the elections are rigged.
-The polarization, I think one thing that is fucking with polling is that it has really quite figured out how to calibrate things in regards to extreme polarization. This means they are either overestimating or underestimating things that could make someone a likely voter or not one at all. This means the bullshit in DC, might not be dampening democratic prospects as much as it normally would; especially, if people correctly clue in on the fact that the GOP is very much at fault for nothing getting done because there are a number of things that shouldn't be as partisan as they are (for instance, not blowing up our fucking economy by not paying our bills).
-The increased early vote is going to have a knock on effect in population dense areas on election day. Each early voter in those areas is one less person that will be in line on election day. That could be the difference between something opting to deal with the line to get a vote in or deciding it's too long to bother with. So if a significant number of people in these areas vote early, that could result in many more people casting their vote overall.
-The final thing to consider though, regardless of how things go down next week. We might very much have a SCOTUS ruling that completely throws everything out the window. If they gut reproductive rights of women, I'm pretty sure that is going to change the calculus in a way that doesn't favor republicans and it won't matter one bit how well they do in next week's elections.
Anyways, a reminder that we have four days of early in person voting left. I'd recommend doing it now rather than later; especially, if you live in an area notorious for line longs on election day. An early vote now, is a banked vote and also one less person in line that others have to wait behind.
538 has the race narrowed at +1.5 McAuliffe, but usual caveats about state polling apply.
I am concerned democrats think they can just coast on anti-Trump messaging as the centerpiece of their campaign without presenting any other platform to stand on. The ads I see are how Youngkin is Trump, Youngkin’s covid policies being bad, McAuliffe walking back his statements on parents and education from last month’s debate, and funny enough how much cops love Terry. Youngkin meanwhile focuses on the stupid grocery tax (Jim Gilmore, is that you?), attacking McAuliffe on education, how police love glenn, and so on. It’s not great, but it’s something, whereas McAuliffe’s campaign is like 75% “Youngkin is Trump” which is nothing.
It is deeply worrying that democrats think the specter of Trump will let them win elections without having to actually commit to anything, and that is not going to work in an environment where Trump has largely stayed out the news and Republicans are threading the needle between distancing the campaign from Trump without drawing the Eye of Sauron upon themselves to be branded as insufficiently loyal.
Abrams being involved gives me hope, but Democrats learn all the wrong lessons from everything so my fear they win and think Trump is still a meal ticket for midterms. That will only work if they can keep Trump quiet any longer or he gets his twitter account back.
Yeah the campaign for McAuliffe seems really weird to me. It does kind of feel like he's trying to run against Trump while also presenting himself as appealing to Republicans by claiming unwavering support for police. The most positive ads McAuliffe has put out are referencing his record as Governor from his previous term, which are at least something but also kind of feel like they are appealing to Republicans as he mostly touts how good Virginia was for business under his administration.
It's just not a very good campaign I feel, and I worry it might let Youngkin win the election.
Yeah the campaign for McAuliffe seems really weird to me. It does kind of feel like he's trying to run against Trump while also presenting himself as appealing to Republicans by claiming unwavering support for police. The most positive ads McAuliffe has put out are referencing his record as Governor from his previous term, which are at least something but also kind of feel like they are appealing to Republicans as he mostly touts how good Virginia was for business under his administration.
It's just not a very good campaign I feel, and I worry it might let Youngkin win the election.
Their email game is also the most sad sack, pathetic shit I’ve ever seen.
It’s like no one there has ever understood the concept of morale.
It's been a thing for as long as I've been getting political campaign emails, which is a while now. Things are always on the verge of a major loss or disaster, unless they get your moneysupport now! I have literally never seen an email going 'man things are going awesome here'.
It's been a thing for as long as I've been getting political campaign emails, which is a while now. Things are always on the verge of a major loss or disaster, unless they get your moneysupport now! I have literally never seen an email going 'man things are going awesome here'.
I mean isn't the concern democrats get overconfident? Like I swear I see that message all the time. I remember leading up to california's election where the governor beat the recall by more than he was elected in 2018, there was fears he was too confident in a deeply blue state.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Dems are always overconfident, but as a ironclad rule donation emails are always presented like the other candidate has billions and our guy has barely two cents to rub together. Doesn't matter which party is sending the email, even if they're the party that's up 50 points in the polls, they will act like their candidate just got caught fucking a dog live on camera.
I keep seeing articles about the different ways McAuliffe is trying to leverage fans of Taylor Swift and I will be voting but it really really makes me want to not vote
I keep seeing articles about the different ways McAuliffe is trying to leverage fans of Taylor Swift and I will be voting but it really really makes me want to not vote
I guess you'll have to
Shake it off
Edit to add content: I have been getting a whole bunch of texts, despite unsubscribing
Posts
If you are in Fairfax your ballot went out probably a week or two ago if you are voting by mail. If you haven't gotten it, check the tracker and call them. They are super nice and want you to vote. The Post Office on the other hand is less reliable.
I plan on returning ours via the drop boxes they put in the library near by now.
it's going to probably be a tougher year for Democrats just in general but also i think there's a lot of media and campaign interest in promoting the idea of a horse race because that's where the money comes from
Polling has consistently had a small (3-5 points) McAulliffe lead. But polling consistently blows the VA Governor's race it seems like and it's not as close as expected.
2017: Polls showed GOP up +2, Dem up +11. Sooo...yeah.
i'd rather it appear close and motivate the less informed to get out and vote than have everyone assume VA is solidly blue and stay home
Absolutely, and that is always a worry in the back of my mind. It can be quite the challenge to motivate Democratic voters at the best of times, and these stupid off year elections are worse than most. I personally vote in every election I am eligible for because I don't take wins for granted (and we not that long ago had a literal tie in Virginia), and I don't want to end up like Bart Simpson in his election. I just don't understand how Youngkin can be doing so well in polls when he's a Trump toady, but then again I don't really understand how anybody even remotely like Trump breaks 27% support.
Probably should check with an artist before doing something like this. Democrats stop being embarrassing challenge (impossible)
in a shocking twist, the redistricting commission continues to fail at its one job
so on to the majority Republican VA Supreme Court the new map will likely go
Virginia Mercury is a Tidewater area newspaper
Twitch Channel
Well, SCOVA is basically republican majority last I remember, so…
Not the best chances, no.
probably not Republican enough to uphold something like Texas' abortion law
definitely Republican enough to draw a map that unduly favors Republicans
The effort is real.
Twitch Channel
I think currently people are being driven insane by currently early voting stats. Vpap.org has been keeping track of the current total and has tabs on past elections. Like there is double the votes for early voting compared to 2017 and we're not even to election day, but early voting was much harder in that election. Compared to 2020, 406K is way behind, but again that was a presidential election, so it was going to have higher turnout. Then there is the whole thing of covid more or less being in check in the state and that might be prompting people to wait until election day. Finally, the GOP has had to peddle Trump's bullshit lie, so there is also the question about if we're going to see the GOP shoot itself in the foot by not showing up. Then again, we're also seeing alignment where the GOP is losing the very reliable college educated vote for the group that has a high school education or less, which is a group that is more likely to miss elections on this state's half-assed election schedule.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Not sure if vpap.org will have the totals updated tomorrow or not. Figure today's turnout is probably going to be one of the better snapshots of how things are looking. Right now if you go to that site and look at district break down. It's a bit hard to get a feel for the partisan turnout. Though interesting to note that if you select all (in person votes, mail ballot requests not returned and returned mail ballots), 4 of the top 5 districts for early voting are held by democrats and the only one held by a republican comes in at 3rd. That would be the 1st district and that might not be a good sign for republicans when we consider that the 1st is likely a swing district at this point, much in the way that the 7th, which is 2nd on early voting. In fact, if I were the GOP, the numbers out of the 9th district should be cause for concern. It has the lowest levels of early voting and is the most republican district in the state. I mean yes, democrats might need to be worried about totals out of 3rd and 4th district but IIRC both districts have large black population, so the totals there might shoot way up after today. If that happens and the 9th is still lagging way behind, it's over 10K behind the 3rd, without much change in it's total, then that could be a very, very bad sign for the GOP. I mean, if we're going to argue voter enthusiasm is a thing, one would think that would carry over into higher early voting because you can do that in person and Trump has largely attacked mail in voting. In fact, the 9th isn't dead last on early in person voting, I do believe it was beating the 3rd district by something like 200 votes and that might not last after today.
One thing we're all going to likely be annoyed by is the bullshit red mirage because the state still has a half-assed approach to counting early votes. So expect dumb wingnut fuckers to piss and moan about how the election was stolen because everything was red before the vote count finished. Thankfully, this will be the last year of such nonsense in Virginia because next year, they'll be using a more sane approach to counting the early vote, that is likely to be less prone to red mirage bullshit. That said, if the red mirage doesn't appear or seems meager, that's likely going to be the first sign of the GOP having a very bad night.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Also Biden is stumping in Arlington on Tuesday. We have gotten 5 cards/mailers from real people in the last week between the two of us. Yeah the Dems have ramped up things.
I got a text to my 540 number when I haven't been in the state in a decade and a half
on the other hand i voted a month ago please stop sending me mail
Trying to remember if it's the first or second early in person vote on Saturday that gets the largest turnout. We still have the 30th. Wondering if we'll see the totals break one million or not. End of November saw a ramp of up early vote turn out.
Edit: Wow, didn't realize there was early voting on the 17th, which a Sunday and also early voting today. So might actually see another big uptick in areas with a large black population that goes to Church, if someone is organizing Souls to the Polls setups because today is the last day to early vote on Sunday. Bit surprised they don't have it open on the 31st, but it is what it is. Though in m y defense Chesapeake doesn't have early voting on Sunday.
One thing that people have been noting and it may or may not be a bad sign for the GOP. Is that while the traditional R activists have had a steady early vote turnout, it's pretty damn low in new areas that are Trump realms. Now these fuckers might show up on election day, but there is a good indication that this will be a good indication of how much of a factor Trump will be in R turnout when he isn't on the ballot. The Youngkin campaign has made a point of not appearing in public with Trump and Pence and have tried to limit how visible his ties are with Trump. So in a way, even though Trump and his ilk have been farting around this election, they have been nearly that visible and that does make this a race where they are effectively off the ballot. It does tell you some things about Virginia and the 2022 midterms in this state next year. Even if Trump is a good motivator for their new base, the GOP seems to believe firmly that advertising their ties to him is likely to do them more harm than good in this state. On the other hand, the democrats have done a good job of tying Youngkin to Trump, we might see him eat a double whammy of not motivating the Trumper base, while still having that connection used to bludgeon his bid to a fine pulp.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
But man it was a trip.
Straight up bolded wording targeting George Soros. Claims about the curriculum being guided by the Southern Poverty Law Center. Scare tactics about immigrants. Use of critical race theory. Also complaints about or 5 cent plastic bag tax. And the last one was "Drag Queen Story Time" which did happen because introducing kids to people who don't fit in normal gender conforming lens is totally scary and we shouldn't do it I guess.
Also the list of things they said we should be angry was a list of things the Republican party has done including reducing freedom, promoting hate, and basically being fascist.
-Despite some district changes a few years ago. The state is still in a republican gerrymander and the data used for all the districts is 10 years old. Not to sound like I'm moving goal posts because I'm not, the republicans can't just pick up a few seats in HoD to have a good night, not even picking up the chamber because again the state is a GOP gerrymander with outdated districts.
-Likewise New Jersey is having elections and I do believe they are a democratic gerrymander. So if someone wants to do tea reading into what 2022 will look like, you have to factor there races in. Hell, want to say there are a few other states that have shitty off year elections. Anyways, you need one party to do what would be considered good for each state to do that in both. If you don't get that result, the outcomes aren't going to tell you much. I mean the GOP may have a good night in VA, but if they get crushed in NJ after factoring in where the democrats would have to land because of the gerrymander. Then it's a mixed bag that doesn't speak of momentum towards anyone going into 2022.
Also we have some bullshit and wildcards in play for the state.
-The fucking traitor to democracy that is DeJoy is still postmaster general and he is still fucking with the mail. The state actually filed a lawsuit against the post office over this. We really ought to have a reasonable timeline for ballots to be received so that fuckers like DeJoy have less incentive to fuck with election mail. Any mailed in ballot in VA, that is postmarked by election day, must get to the registrars office by noon of Friday (Nov 5). I mean it could be worse because I know there are places that toss ballots postmarked before election day because they don't arrive on election day. Given the time allotted for certification, we could probably allow for up to two weeks. I mean worse case, some people end up having to learn this thing called patience. Anyways, still a risk that a number of people get fucked out of their right to vote because DeJoy's fuckery makes their ballot show up too late.
-It's not entirely clear what the big lie rhetoric is going to do to the overall GOP vote. Right now, it appears to be depressing Trumpy areas that were republican before Trump. This is to say that the polling could be off because a bunch of republicans decide that voting has no value as a result of believing that the elections are rigged.
-The polarization, I think one thing that is fucking with polling is that it has really quite figured out how to calibrate things in regards to extreme polarization. This means they are either overestimating or underestimating things that could make someone a likely voter or not one at all. This means the bullshit in DC, might not be dampening democratic prospects as much as it normally would; especially, if people correctly clue in on the fact that the GOP is very much at fault for nothing getting done because there are a number of things that shouldn't be as partisan as they are (for instance, not blowing up our fucking economy by not paying our bills).
-The increased early vote is going to have a knock on effect in population dense areas on election day. Each early voter in those areas is one less person that will be in line on election day. That could be the difference between something opting to deal with the line to get a vote in or deciding it's too long to bother with. So if a significant number of people in these areas vote early, that could result in many more people casting their vote overall.
-The final thing to consider though, regardless of how things go down next week. We might very much have a SCOTUS ruling that completely throws everything out the window. If they gut reproductive rights of women, I'm pretty sure that is going to change the calculus in a way that doesn't favor republicans and it won't matter one bit how well they do in next week's elections.
Anyways, a reminder that we have four days of early in person voting left. I'd recommend doing it now rather than later; especially, if you live in an area notorious for line longs on election day. An early vote now, is a banked vote and also one less person in line that others have to wait behind.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
I am concerned democrats think they can just coast on anti-Trump messaging as the centerpiece of their campaign without presenting any other platform to stand on. The ads I see are how Youngkin is Trump, Youngkin’s covid policies being bad, McAuliffe walking back his statements on parents and education from last month’s debate, and funny enough how much cops love Terry. Youngkin meanwhile focuses on the stupid grocery tax (Jim Gilmore, is that you?), attacking McAuliffe on education, how police love glenn, and so on. It’s not great, but it’s something, whereas McAuliffe’s campaign is like 75% “Youngkin is Trump” which is nothing.
It is deeply worrying that democrats think the specter of Trump will let them win elections without having to actually commit to anything, and that is not going to work in an environment where Trump has largely stayed out the news and Republicans are threading the needle between distancing the campaign from Trump without drawing the Eye of Sauron upon themselves to be branded as insufficiently loyal.
Abrams being involved gives me hope, but Democrats learn all the wrong lessons from everything so my fear they win and think Trump is still a meal ticket for midterms. That will only work if they can keep Trump quiet any longer or he gets his twitter account back.
pleasepaypreacher.net
It's just not a very good campaign I feel, and I worry it might let Youngkin win the election.
Their email game is also the most sad sack, pathetic shit I’ve ever seen.
It’s like no one there has ever understood the concept of morale.
I mean isn't the concern democrats get overconfident? Like I swear I see that message all the time. I remember leading up to california's election where the governor beat the recall by more than he was elected in 2018, there was fears he was too confident in a deeply blue state.
pleasepaypreacher.net
I guess you'll have to
Shake it off
Edit to add content: I have been getting a whole bunch of texts, despite unsubscribing