Only if the tariffs are on input goods. If they’re on finished goods then there are only consumers and retail in the chain
But if they’re on input goods then you do not benefit your manufacturing sector
No, the entire chain still applies, because the importing retailers can pressure their supplier to lower prices. Or give you rebates matching the tariff bill.
(this is, in fact, so common that certain parts of tariff law have a penalty for doing it because they don't want you doing it)
What we really need in terms of "fighting China" is to return manufacturing to the USA so that China doesn't have a stranglehold on our supply chains. Especially in terms of medical, food and military manufacturing. We really need to figure out how to do that. Sensibly applied tariffs and tax breaks might work.
Tariffs end up being paid by consumers in the end, so...
Why do people keep saying that? It's only true if demand isn't price-sensitive, and if that's the case, the prices would probably have already been higher. The cost of every tariff is going to be stretched across the entire manufacturing, distribution, and purchasing chain to some extent.
When he put tariffs on dishwashers the domestic manufacturers raised prices to meet the same level so they could pocket the change. Which meant that fewer people remodeled their kitchens and caused an overall decline in demand.
What we really need in terms of "fighting China" is to return manufacturing to the USA so that China doesn't have a stranglehold on our supply chains. Especially in terms of medical, food and military manufacturing. We really need to figure out how to do that. Sensibly applied tariffs and tax breaks might work.
Tariffs end up being paid by consumers in the end, so...
Why do people keep saying that? It's only true if demand isn't price-sensitive, and if that's the case, the prices would probably have already been higher. The cost of every tariff is going to be stretched across the entire manufacturing, distribution, and purchasing chain to some extent.
When he put tariffs on dishwashers the domestic manufacturers raised prices to meet the same level so they could pocket the change. Which meant that fewer people remodeled their kitchens and caused an overall decline in demand.
No reduced demand, but Trump's steel tariffs just similarly raised the price of American steel.
so now that we have a Biden presidency, one of the most concerning things I've been seeing is that Biden will be 'softer' towards China. I'm wondering what his stance will be on the current slave labor taking place, and whether he will sanction any companies currently using slave labor?
In all, ASPI’s research has identified 82 foreign and Chinese companies potentially directly or indirectly benefiting from the use of Uyghur workers outside Xinjiang through abusive labour transfer programs: Abercrombie & Fitch, Acer, Adidas, Alstom, Amazon, Apple, ASUS, BAIC Motor, BMW, Bombardier, Bosch, BYD, Calvin Klein, Candy, Carter’s, Cerruti 1881, Changan Automobile, Cisco, CRRC, Dell, Electrolux, Fila, Founder Group, GAC Group (automobiles), Gap, Geely Auto, General Motors, Google, Goertek, H&M, Haier, Hart Schaffner Marx, Hisense, Hitachi, HP, HTC, Huawei, iFlyTek, Jack & Jones, Jaguar, Japan Display Inc., L.L.Bean, Lacoste, Land Rover, Lenovo, LG, Li-Ning, Marks & Spencer, Mayor, Meizu, Mercedes-Benz, MG, Microsoft, Mitsubishi, Mitsumi, Nike, Nintendo, Nokia, Oculus, Oppo, Panasonic, Polo Ralph Lauren, Puma, Roewe, SAIC Motor, Samsung, SGMW, Sharp, Siemens, Skechers, Sony, TDK, Tommy Hilfiger, Toshiba, Tsinghua Tongfang, Uniqlo, Victoria’s Secret, Vivo, Volkswagen, Xiaomi, Zara, Zegna, ZTE. Some brands are linked with multiple factories.
Biden helped craft the TPP agreement. He isn't going to be soft on China. He's going to be rational about it.
Furthermore, the argument here is reminiscent of popular views of Carter and Reagan re: Iran. Reagan (who literally sold arms to Iran) was seen as the hardliner, while Carter (whose shutdown of access to funds was pressuring lran to the table) was seen as soft.
And don't forget Reagan's team making that backroom deal with the Iranians to hold on releasing the hostages till he was inaugurated, even though Carter's foreign policy team and the French did all of the negotiations. Ronnie was a self-serving asshole.
BlackDragon480 on
No matter where you go...there you are. ~ Buckaroo Banzai
so now that we have a Biden presidency, one of the most concerning things I've been seeing is that Biden will be 'softer' towards China. I'm wondering what his stance will be on the current slave labor taking place, and whether he will sanction any companies currently using slave labor?
In all, ASPI’s research has identified 82 foreign and Chinese companies potentially directly or indirectly benefiting from the use of Uyghur workers outside Xinjiang through abusive labour transfer programs: Abercrombie & Fitch, Acer, Adidas, Alstom, Amazon, Apple, ASUS, BAIC Motor, BMW, Bombardier, Bosch, BYD, Calvin Klein, Candy, Carter’s, Cerruti 1881, Changan Automobile, Cisco, CRRC, Dell, Electrolux, Fila, Founder Group, GAC Group (automobiles), Gap, Geely Auto, General Motors, Google, Goertek, H&M, Haier, Hart Schaffner Marx, Hisense, Hitachi, HP, HTC, Huawei, iFlyTek, Jack & Jones, Jaguar, Japan Display Inc., L.L.Bean, Lacoste, Land Rover, Lenovo, LG, Li-Ning, Marks & Spencer, Mayor, Meizu, Mercedes-Benz, MG, Microsoft, Mitsubishi, Mitsumi, Nike, Nintendo, Nokia, Oculus, Oppo, Panasonic, Polo Ralph Lauren, Puma, Roewe, SAIC Motor, Samsung, SGMW, Sharp, Siemens, Skechers, Sony, TDK, Tommy Hilfiger, Toshiba, Tsinghua Tongfang, Uniqlo, Victoria’s Secret, Vivo, Volkswagen, Xiaomi, Zara, Zegna, ZTE. Some brands are linked with multiple factories.
Biden helped craft the TPP agreement. He isn't going to be soft on China. He's going to be rational about it.
Furthermore, the argument here is reminiscent of popular views of Carter and Reagan re: Iran. Reagan (who literally sold arms to Iran) was seen as the hardliner, while Carter (whose shutdown of access to funds was pressuring lran to the table) was seen as soft.
And don't forget Reagan's team making that backroom deal with the Iranians to hold on releasing the hostages till he was inaugurated, even though Carter's foreign policy team and the French did all of the negotiations. Ronnie was a self-serving asshole.
Well, yeah, he was a Republican.
At this point, it's actively selected for, if not straight up a requirement.
When it comes to Biden’s future foreign policy on China, please keep in mind that he has to start where Trump left him.
It’s gonna take much diplomacy and effort on the Biden Administration to even get to where Obama left things, let alone the wet trash fire Trump left for us.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
When it comes to Biden’s future foreign policy on China, please keep in mind that he has to start where Trump left him.
It’s gonna take much diplomacy and effort on the Biden Administration to even get to where Obama left things, let alone the wet trash fire Trump left for us.
I know it looks different to us here but there's a chance that foreign governments *might* be willing to hedge that Trump was a one-term anomaly. A lot of bridges have been burned but I'm not sure we are going to be quite at the zero point trump left us at least with allies, and Biden getting us engaged with international organizations again is a good first step to signal a return to normalcy.
Again its another thing if you start asking countries to make economic sacrifices to contain China, but at least NATO and Korea/Japan/Taiwan will be feeling much better overnight.
When it comes to Biden’s future foreign policy on China, please keep in mind that he has to start where Trump left him.
It’s gonna take much diplomacy and effort on the Biden Administration to even get to where Obama left things, let alone the wet trash fire Trump left for us.
I know it looks different to us here but there's a chance that foreign governments *might* be willing to hedge that Trump was a one-term anomaly. A lot of bridges have been burned but I'm not sure we are going to be quite at the zero point trump left us at least with allies, and Biden getting us engaged with international organizations again is a good first step to signal a return to normalcy.
Again its another thing if you start asking countries to make economic sacrifices to contain China, but at least NATO and Korea/Japan/Taiwan will be feeling much better overnight.
Even if it's not normalcy, at least they know what the next four years get them. Not sure they'll settle for any agreements lasting beyond 2025, especially if Trump runs again.
But the next four years, they can accept what the President says means something, he won't reverse himself on a whim, and more importantly, the people he assigns to speak on his behalf, do so.
Having to negotiate directly with the President because of how many times he has rejected terms agreed to by diplomats, would be so fucking frustrating, given how few hours a week he actually works.
+2
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MayabirdPecking at the keyboardRegistered Userregular
Folks have probably already seen it but Russia's vehemently denying that Putin's going to be anything but the god-czar for life. He'll keep ruling even after he's more of a skeletal echo of a man than Francisco Franco at the end, and then they might just give him the Lenin treatment afterward.
They didn't say that last part out loud and maybe I've gotten crazy and paranoid these last few years trying to hear dogwhistles but that's always the vibe I've been getting.
When it comes to Biden’s future foreign policy on China, please keep in mind that he has to start where Trump left him.
It’s gonna take much diplomacy and effort on the Biden Administration to even get to where Obama left things, let alone the wet trash fire Trump left for us.
I know it looks different to us here but there's a chance that foreign governments *might* be willing to hedge that Trump was a one-term anomaly. A lot of bridges have been burned but I'm not sure we are going to be quite at the zero point trump left us at least with allies, and Biden getting us engaged with international organizations again is a good first step to signal a return to normalcy.
Again its another thing if you start asking countries to make economic sacrifices to contain China, but at least NATO and Korea/Japan/Taiwan will be feeling much better overnight.
Sorry, but no. No sane country can trust or work long term with the US. Not after Bush and Trump. Sanity is, at best, temporary.
When it comes to Biden’s future foreign policy on China, please keep in mind that he has to start where Trump left him.
It’s gonna take much diplomacy and effort on the Biden Administration to even get to where Obama left things, let alone the wet trash fire Trump left for us.
I know it looks different to us here but there's a chance that foreign governments *might* be willing to hedge that Trump was a one-term anomaly. A lot of bridges have been burned but I'm not sure we are going to be quite at the zero point trump left us at least with allies, and Biden getting us engaged with international organizations again is a good first step to signal a return to normalcy.
Again its another thing if you start asking countries to make economic sacrifices to contain China, but at least NATO and Korea/Japan/Taiwan will be feeling much better overnight.
Sorry, but no. No sane country can trust or work long term with the US. Not after Bush and Trump. Sanity is, at best, temporary.
Sane or not, most allies worked fine with Obama and even Bush. America being an imperialist nation that unilaterally invades and bombs "lesser" places has always been known to be part of the deal. Pulling your troops out of allied nations overnight with zero warning less so. Its not about America being the "good guys" so much as just having a bare minimum of predictability and consistency.
When it comes to Biden’s future foreign policy on China, please keep in mind that he has to start where Trump left him.
It’s gonna take much diplomacy and effort on the Biden Administration to even get to where Obama left things, let alone the wet trash fire Trump left for us.
I know it looks different to us here but there's a chance that foreign governments *might* be willing to hedge that Trump was a one-term anomaly. A lot of bridges have been burned but I'm not sure we are going to be quite at the zero point trump left us at least with allies, and Biden getting us engaged with international organizations again is a good first step to signal a return to normalcy.
Again its another thing if you start asking countries to make economic sacrifices to contain China, but at least NATO and Korea/Japan/Taiwan will be feeling much better overnight.
Sorry, but no. No sane country can trust or work long term with the US. Not after Bush and Trump. Sanity is, at best, temporary.
Sane or not, most allies worked fine with Obama and even Bush. America being an imperialist nation that unilaterally invades and bombs "lesser" places has always been known to be part of the deal. Pulling your troops out of allied nations overnight with zero warning less so. Its not about America being the "good guys" so much as just having a bare minimum of predictability and consistency.
Bush was your one-term anomaly. Then you re-elected him. Then we gave you another chance with Obama. Then you elected Trump.
No country with rational leadership want to be in a position where they have to rely on long term sanity from the US. Even NATO is not longer reliable.
This is doubly true because if how close this was. Everyone can see that it's a coin flip on whether there will be another unqualified baby in the White House in four years and any agreements they made with Biden are worthless. Once you've broken people's trust once it's a lot harder to get it back than just saying 'oh it totally won't happen again'.
While racing light mechs, your Urbanmech comes in second place, but only because it ran out of ammo.
What we really need in terms of "fighting China" is to return manufacturing to the USA so that China doesn't have a stranglehold on our supply chains. Especially in terms of medical, food and military manufacturing. We really need to figure out how to do that. Sensibly applied tariffs and tax breaks might work.
Tariffs end up being paid by consumers in the end, so...
Which is fine if you have enough local production, which is why I assume it was her first point.
I think the right-wing’s slide toward fascism is going to be a long and scary fight, but I also am doubtful that the GOP is going to be able to just prop up another Trump.
Trump is unique - a media figure 40 years in the making whose aura of vast wealth and vulgar excess appeals to his cult in ways that go beyond simple politics.
I think the right-wing’s slide toward fascism is going to be a long and scary fight, but I also am doubtful that the GOP is going to be able to just prop up another Trump.
Trump is unique - a media figure 40 years in the making whose aura of vast wealth and vulgar excess appeals to his cult in ways that go beyond simple politics.
Fascism happened before, and it will happen again.
Trump is unique - a media figure 40 years in the making whose aura of vast wealth and vulgar excess appeals to his cult in ways that go beyond simple politics.
Trump is unique - a media figure 40 years in the making whose aura of vast wealth and vulgar excess appeals to his cult in ways that go beyond simple politics.
There's no shortage of vulgar rich guys.
It’s more than that. Trump was THE vulgar rich guy on America’s TV for 40 years.
Trump is unique - a media figure 40 years in the making whose aura of vast wealth and vulgar excess appeals to his cult in ways that go beyond simple politics.
There's no shortage of vulgar rich guys.
There is a shortage of such people who are eligible and have a hit TV show though. It's pretty much Mark Cuban.
enlightenedbum on
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Trump is unique - a media figure 40 years in the making whose aura of vast wealth and vulgar excess appeals to his cult in ways that go beyond simple politics.
There's no shortage of vulgar rich guys.
It's
There is a shortage of such people who are eligible and have a hit TV show though. It's pretty much Mark Cuban.
There's all the Fox News guys. They may not be billionaires, but they can do the media blowhard thing better than Trump - he was constantly phoning them for advice.
I think the right-wing’s slide toward fascism is going to be a long and scary fight, but I also am doubtful that the GOP is going to be able to just prop up another Trump.
Trump is unique - a media figure 40 years in the making whose aura of vast wealth and vulgar excess appeals to his cult in ways that go beyond simple politics.
Fascism happened before, and it will happen again.
Sure, but cult of personality movements always have rough transitions when the Dear Leader dies. Trump is not an easily replaceable cog, but a celebrity whose rise to power came out of 40 years of ubiquity in American culture.
The question has been and still is, how much of Trump's appeal is unique to him. It's a bit like the popular image of the Mad Genius/Artist* - can you have the genius without the insanity, can you split them, or are they inseparable complements? Can you have the charisma without the self-destructive cognitive defects, or the behavior that drives away some and draws others?
* not to be confused with actual prodigies, artists, autists, sufferers from mental illness, etc etc etc.
There’s no reality where the rest of the world doesn’t have to deal with the US, schizophrenia and all.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
There’s no reality where the rest of the world doesn’t have to deal with the US, schizophrenia and all.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
The EU is already making serious moves toward a unified defense force that operates outside the need for NATO. It is less that the rest of the world isolate the U.S. and more that they move away from requiring the U.S. to be more than an erratic world power that they can deal with, oppose, or ignore as necessary.
End of hegemony and transition to a multi-polar world, in the foreign policy lingo.
There’s no reality where the rest of the world doesn’t have to deal with the US, schizophrenia and all.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
The EU is already making serious moves toward a unified defense force that operates outside the need for NATO. It is less that the rest of the world isolate the U.S. and more that they move away from requiring the U.S. to be more than an erratic world power that they can deal with, oppose, or ignore as necessary.
End of hegemony and transition to a multi-polar world, in the foreign policy lingo.
My point is that if Biden tries to implement TTP or Iran Deal 2.0, or tries to join the Paris Climate Accord, or puts international sanctions on Putin, what country won’t come to the table even if there’s a risk of the next Trump undoing all of it?
Mild Confusion on
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
There’s no reality where the rest of the world doesn’t have to deal with the US, schizophrenia and all.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
The EU is already making serious moves toward a unified defense force that operates outside the need for NATO. It is less that the rest of the world isolate the U.S. and more that they move away from requiring the U.S. to be more than an erratic world power that they can deal with, oppose, or ignore as necessary.
End of hegemony and transition to a multi-polar world, in the foreign policy lingo.
My point is that if Biden tries to implement TTP or Iran Deal 2.0, or tries to join the Paris Climate Accord, or puts international sanctions on Putin, what country won’t come to the table even if there’s a risk of the next Trump undoing all of it?
There’s no reality where the rest of the world doesn’t have to deal with the US, schizophrenia and all.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
The EU is already making serious moves toward a unified defense force that operates outside the need for NATO. It is less that the rest of the world isolate the U.S. and more that they move away from requiring the U.S. to be more than an erratic world power that they can deal with, oppose, or ignore as necessary.
End of hegemony and transition to a multi-polar world, in the foreign policy lingo.
My point is that if Biden tries to implement TTP or Iran Deal 2.0, or tries to join the Paris Climate Accord, or puts international sanctions on Putin, what country won’t come to the table even if there’s a risk of the next Trump undoing all of it?
With the TTP, especially, I definitely think the U.S. is not just going to be able to show up and join. There will be the demand for concessions and guarantees.
+1
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FencingsaxIt is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understandingGNU Terry PratchettRegistered Userregular
There’s no reality where the rest of the world doesn’t have to deal with the US, schizophrenia and all.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
The EU is already making serious moves toward a unified defense force that operates outside the need for NATO. It is less that the rest of the world isolate the U.S. and more that they move away from requiring the U.S. to be more than an erratic world power that they can deal with, oppose, or ignore as necessary.
End of hegemony and transition to a multi-polar world, in the foreign policy lingo.
My point is that if Biden tries to implement TTP or Iran Deal 2.0, or tries to join the Paris Climate Accord, or puts international sanctions on Putin, what country won’t come to the table even if there’s a risk of the next Trump undoing all of it?
With the TTP, especially, I definitely think the U.S. is not just going to be able to show up and join. There will be the demand for concessions and guarantees.
The guaruntees will be the trade agreements implemented.
The concessions will be us trying to get all the IP bullshit put in after the fact, and being told to fuck off.
There’s no reality where the rest of the world doesn’t have to deal with the US, schizophrenia and all.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
The EU is already making serious moves toward a unified defense force that operates outside the need for NATO. It is less that the rest of the world isolate the U.S. and more that they move away from requiring the U.S. to be more than an erratic world power that they can deal with, oppose, or ignore as necessary.
End of hegemony and transition to a multi-polar world, in the foreign policy lingo.
My point is that if Biden tries to implement TTP or Iran Deal 2.0, or tries to join the Paris Climate Accord, or puts international sanctions on Putin, what country won’t come to the table even if there’s a risk of the next Trump undoing all of it?
People who give a shit ? Iran has no reason to agree to anything, since they won't actually get anything, and international sanctions on Russia or China are meaningless when the next US government is just going to drop them.
Why concede anything to the US for them to join TTP when they will just randomly start a trade war and basically prevent you from getting what you are supposed to get ?
The worst decision Canada ever made was to agree to free trade with the US. At least China does not start trade wars for fun.
Trump showed that the U.S. government can and will ignore treaties at will that supposedly have the force of law. Any future agreements are going to require up front concessions and penalties that don’t depend on the integrity of the U.S. political system.
+16
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CaptainPeacockBoard Game HoarderTop o' the LakeRegistered Userregular
Pretty on-brand for the US. Ask any native.
Cluck cluck, gibber gibber, my old man's a mushroom, etc.
There’s no reality where the rest of the world doesn’t have to deal with the US, schizophrenia and all.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
Deal with includes a lot of different possibilities. And a baked in assumption that any agreements are only valid for four years means, in simplistic terms, that the US will have to offer more to get the same results.
While racing light mechs, your Urbanmech comes in second place, but only because it ran out of ammo.
There’s no reality where the rest of the world doesn’t have to deal with the US, schizophrenia and all.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
The EU is already making serious moves toward a unified defense force that operates outside the need for NATO. It is less that the rest of the world isolate the U.S. and more that they move away from requiring the U.S. to be more than an erratic world power that they can deal with, oppose, or ignore as necessary.
End of hegemony and transition to a multi-polar world, in the foreign policy lingo.
My point is that if Biden tries to implement TTP or Iran Deal 2.0, or tries to join the Paris Climate Accord, or puts international sanctions on Putin, what country won’t come to the table even if there’s a risk of the next Trump undoing all of it?
People who give a shit ? Iran has no reason to agree to anything, since they won't actually get anything, and international sanctions on Russia or China are meaningless when the next US government is just going to drop them.
Why concede anything to the US for them to join TTP when they will just randomly start a trade war and basically prevent you from getting what you are supposed to get ?
The worst decision Canada ever made was to agree to free trade with the US. At least China does not start trade wars for fun.
I disagree.
Iran has every reason to come to the table to alleviate US sanctions. Obviously Iran would be appropriately circumspect in curtailing their nuclear ambitions based of the US’s political system being schizophrenic and the world history on what happens when nations denuclearize.
But let’s be real here, even four years of lessened sanctions would entice Iran to the table. I’m not saying Biden is gonna be some kind of hard-ass or whatever, but he’s starting where Trump ended and there’s just no way he’s gonna risk political capital without getting something tangible first and I’m confident Iran will comply if it makes things even temporarily better for them. There’s very little political reason for Biden to risk Dem executive power without tangible gains to present to the insane US populace.
I’m reminded of the UK thread where some posters have readily admitted that there’s just no way Biden gives them a good trade deal, because why would he? It’s not in Biden’s political interest to help the UK if it harms the US administration politically.
Same with the TTP; the US needs to be involved to give it sharper teeth. Like, I get that it sucks, but the US is the largest consumer of Chinese products by a heavy margin. If the world wants to curtail that to improve their interests in Chinese produced goods, then the US has to be at the table for it to really work like we want to.
Any concession that Biden gives to be involved in world politics will be a pittance at best.
Mild Confusion on
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
There’s no reality where the rest of the world doesn’t have to deal with the US, schizophrenia and all.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
The EU is already making serious moves toward a unified defense force that operates outside the need for NATO. It is less that the rest of the world isolate the U.S. and more that they move away from requiring the U.S. to be more than an erratic world power that they can deal with, oppose, or ignore as necessary.
End of hegemony and transition to a multi-polar world, in the foreign policy lingo.
My point is that if Biden tries to implement TTP or Iran Deal 2.0, or tries to join the Paris Climate Accord, or puts international sanctions on Putin, what country won’t come to the table even if there’s a risk of the next Trump undoing all of it?
People who give a shit ? Iran has no reason to agree to anything, since they won't actually get anything, and international sanctions on Russia or China are meaningless when the next US government is just going to drop them.
Why concede anything to the US for them to join TTP when they will just randomly start a trade war and basically prevent you from getting what you are supposed to get ?
The worst decision Canada ever made was to agree to free trade with the US. At least China does not start trade wars for fun.
I disagree.
Iran has every reason to come to the table to alleviate US sanctions. Obviously Iran would be appropriately circumspect in curtailing their nuclear ambitions based of the US’s political system being schizophrenic and the world history on what happens when nations denuclearize.
But let’s be real here, even four years of lessened sanctions would entice Iran to the table. I’m not saying Biden is gonna be some kind of hard-ass or whatever, but he’s starting where Trump ended and there’s just no way he’s gonna risk political capital without getting something tangible first and I’m confident Iran will comply if it makes things even temporarily better for them. There’s very little political reason for Biden to risk Dem executive power without tangible gains to present to the insane US populace.
I seem to recall that deals like this usually involve incremental loosening of sanctions so it's probably not even a full four years. How is that worth being able to secure yourself against foreign invasion forever and probably also strong arming your neighbors into giving you an even better deal? The only reason I could see Iran agreeing to any deal is if they don't actually have the capability or desire to complete a nuclear weapons program. And even then any deal would probably require significantly more front loaded benefits.
While racing light mechs, your Urbanmech comes in second place, but only because it ran out of ammo.
There’s no reality where the rest of the world doesn’t have to deal with the US, schizophrenia and all.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
The EU is already making serious moves toward a unified defense force that operates outside the need for NATO. It is less that the rest of the world isolate the U.S. and more that they move away from requiring the U.S. to be more than an erratic world power that they can deal with, oppose, or ignore as necessary.
End of hegemony and transition to a multi-polar world, in the foreign policy lingo.
My point is that if Biden tries to implement TTP or Iran Deal 2.0, or tries to join the Paris Climate Accord, or puts international sanctions on Putin, what country won’t come to the table even if there’s a risk of the next Trump undoing all of it?
People who give a shit ? Iran has no reason to agree to anything, since they won't actually get anything, and international sanctions on Russia or China are meaningless when the next US government is just going to drop them.
Why concede anything to the US for them to join TTP when they will just randomly start a trade war and basically prevent you from getting what you are supposed to get ?
The worst decision Canada ever made was to agree to free trade with the US. At least China does not start trade wars for fun.
I disagree.
Iran has every reason to come to the table to alleviate US sanctions. Obviously Iran would be appropriately circumspect in curtailing their nuclear ambitions based of the US’s political system being schizophrenic and the world history on what happens when nations denuclearize.
But let’s be real here, even four years of lessened sanctions would entice Iran to the table. I’m not saying Biden is gonna be some kind of hard-ass or whatever, but he’s starting where Trump ended and there’s just no way he’s gonna risk political capital without getting something tangible first and I’m confident Iran will comply if it makes things even temporarily better for them. There’s very little political reason for Biden to risk Dem executive power without tangible gains to present to the insane US populace.
I seem to recall that deals like this usually involve incremental loosening of sanctions so it's probably not even a full four years. How is that worth being able to secure yourself against foreign invasion forever and probably also strong arming your neighbors into giving you an even better deal? The only reason I could see Iran agreeing to any deal is if they don't actually have the capability or desire to complete a nuclear weapons program. And even then any deal would probably require significantly more front loaded benefits.
I’m imagining a future where Biden or Iran never come to the table together. So what about Israel and Saudi Arabia’s interests in Iranian nuclear power, who gets involved then? Which nation is gonna defend Iran in that climate without the US? If Iran becomes a nuclear power, then what happens with the other Iran Deal nations?
Do we really think the EU is gonna stop Israel or SA from preventing a nuclear Iran and the US will do nothing?
I get it, having the US involved is a recipe for a potentially unknown disaster, it’s unfair and it’s bullshit. But not having the US involved is, IMO, predictable bullshit and I know which type of bullshit the world prefers to avoid.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
There’s no reality where the rest of the world doesn’t have to deal with the US, schizophrenia and all.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
The EU is already making serious moves toward a unified defense force that operates outside the need for NATO. It is less that the rest of the world isolate the U.S. and more that they move away from requiring the U.S. to be more than an erratic world power that they can deal with, oppose, or ignore as necessary.
End of hegemony and transition to a multi-polar world, in the foreign policy lingo.
My point is that if Biden tries to implement TTP or Iran Deal 2.0, or tries to join the Paris Climate Accord, or puts international sanctions on Putin, what country won’t come to the table even if there’s a risk of the next Trump undoing all of it?
People who give a shit ? Iran has no reason to agree to anything, since they won't actually get anything, and international sanctions on Russia or China are meaningless when the next US government is just going to drop them.
Why concede anything to the US for them to join TTP when they will just randomly start a trade war and basically prevent you from getting what you are supposed to get ?
The worst decision Canada ever made was to agree to free trade with the US. At least China does not start trade wars for fun.
I disagree.
Iran has every reason to come to the table to alleviate US sanctions. Obviously Iran would be appropriately circumspect in curtailing their nuclear ambitions based of the US’s political system being schizophrenic and the world history on what happens when nations denuclearize.
But let’s be real here, even four years of lessened sanctions would entice Iran to the table. I’m not saying Biden is gonna be some kind of hard-ass or whatever, but he’s starting where Trump ended and there’s just no way he’s gonna risk political capital without getting something tangible first and I’m confident Iran will comply if it makes things even temporarily better for them. There’s very little political reason for Biden to risk Dem executive power without tangible gains to present to the insane US populace.
I seem to recall that deals like this usually involve incremental loosening of sanctions so it's probably not even a full four years. How is that worth being able to secure yourself against foreign invasion forever and probably also strong arming your neighbors into giving you an even better deal? The only reason I could see Iran agreeing to any deal is if they don't actually have the capability or desire to complete a nuclear weapons program. And even then any deal would probably require significantly more front loaded benefits.
I’m imagining a future where Biden or Iran never come to the table together. So what about Israel and Saudi Arabia’s interests in Iranian nuclear power, who gets involved then? Which nation is gonna defend Iran in that climate without the US? If Iran becomes a nuclear power, then what happens with the other Iran Deal nations?
Do we really think the EU is gonna stop Israel or SA from preventing a nuclear Iran and the US will do nothing?
I get it, having the US involved is a recipe for a potentially unknown disaster, it’s unfair and it’s bullshit. But not having the US involved is, IMO, predictable bullshit and I know which type of bullshit the world prefers to avoid.
Israel and Saudi Arabia will need to decide if they think they can stop it and if it is worth the risk. If they do, then we get to see how Israel's air capabilities stack up against Iran's air defenses. And then presumably the cold war that has been growing in the Middle East turns hot and Iran starts blowing up Saudi Arabian oil refineries again. And if your argument is that obviously Iran would prefer some dubious concessions from the US over taking this kind of risk, I'm not sure what reason there is to be confident in that. It's probably entirely reasonable to think or at least convince themselves that they can protect their facilities long enough to get a working bomb, or that Israel will blink or mistime it and wait too long.
Although this is all kind of assuming that Iran doesn't implode, because the last thing I heard was that it was being hit really hard by COVID and I haven't heard anything on how that is working out in a while.
While racing light mechs, your Urbanmech comes in second place, but only because it ran out of ammo.
There’s no reality where the rest of the world doesn’t have to deal with the US, schizophrenia and all.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
The EU is already making serious moves toward a unified defense force that operates outside the need for NATO. It is less that the rest of the world isolate the U.S. and more that they move away from requiring the U.S. to be more than an erratic world power that they can deal with, oppose, or ignore as necessary.
End of hegemony and transition to a multi-polar world, in the foreign policy lingo.
My point is that if Biden tries to implement TTP or Iran Deal 2.0, or tries to join the Paris Climate Accord, or puts international sanctions on Putin, what country won’t come to the table even if there’s a risk of the next Trump undoing all of it?
People who give a shit ? Iran has no reason to agree to anything, since they won't actually get anything, and international sanctions on Russia or China are meaningless when the next US government is just going to drop them.
Why concede anything to the US for them to join TTP when they will just randomly start a trade war and basically prevent you from getting what you are supposed to get ?
The worst decision Canada ever made was to agree to free trade with the US. At least China does not start trade wars for fun.
I disagree.
Iran has every reason to come to the table to alleviate US sanctions. Obviously Iran would be appropriately circumspect in curtailing their nuclear ambitions based of the US’s political system being schizophrenic and the world history on what happens when nations denuclearize.
But let’s be real here, even four years of lessened sanctions would entice Iran to the table. I’m not saying Biden is gonna be some kind of hard-ass or whatever, but he’s starting where Trump ended and there’s just no way he’s gonna risk political capital without getting something tangible first and I’m confident Iran will comply if it makes things even temporarily better for them. There’s very little political reason for Biden to risk Dem executive power without tangible gains to present to the insane US populace.
I seem to recall that deals like this usually involve incremental loosening of sanctions so it's probably not even a full four years. How is that worth being able to secure yourself against foreign invasion forever and probably also strong arming your neighbors into giving you an even better deal? The only reason I could see Iran agreeing to any deal is if they don't actually have the capability or desire to complete a nuclear weapons program. And even then any deal would probably require significantly more front loaded benefits.
I’m imagining a future where Biden or Iran never come to the table together. So what about Israel and Saudi Arabia’s interests in Iranian nuclear power, who gets involved then? Which nation is gonna defend Iran in that climate without the US? If Iran becomes a nuclear power, then what happens with the other Iran Deal nations?
Do we really think the EU is gonna stop Israel or SA from preventing a nuclear Iran and the US will do nothing?
I get it, having the US involved is a recipe for a potentially unknown disaster, it’s unfair and it’s bullshit. But not having the US involved is, IMO, predictable bullshit and I know which type of bullshit the world prefers to avoid.
Israel and Saudi Arabia will need to decide if they think they can stop it and if it is worth the risk. If they do, then we get to see how Israel's air capabilities stack up against Iran's air defenses. And then presumably the cold war that has been growing in the Middle East turns hot and Iran starts blowing up Saudi Arabian oil refineries again. And if your argument is that obviously Iran would prefer some dubious concessions from the US over taking this kind of risk, I'm not sure what reason there is to be confident in that. It's probably entirely reasonable to think or at least convince themselves that they can protect their facilities long enough to get a working bomb, or that Israel will blink or mistime it and wait too long.
Although this is all kind of assuming that Iran doesn't implode, because the last thing I heard was that it was being hit really hard by COVID and I haven't heard anything on how that is working out in a while.
If we’re assuming the US isn’t involved, we can’t assume other nations won’t be.
Under what circumstances does that happen and the EU, or especially Russia and China, not get involved?
In a vacuum, Iran ignoring the US and everyone lawling could be a thing, but we don’t live in a vacuum and there’s no way Biden or the EU allows China or Russia to gain an advantage in the Middle East, which means the US has to be involved, which means the US and all it’s bullshit gets a seat at the table.
Like my original assertion; if we want to curtail Russia and China’s power, the US must be involved. Which means curtailing US power will be symbolic at best else Russia and China gain world power, and I seriously doubt the world bets on Russia and China acting in good faith vs a schizophrenic US executive.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
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No, the entire chain still applies, because the importing retailers can pressure their supplier to lower prices. Or give you rebates matching the tariff bill.
(this is, in fact, so common that certain parts of tariff law have a penalty for doing it because they don't want you doing it)
When he put tariffs on dishwashers the domestic manufacturers raised prices to meet the same level so they could pocket the change. Which meant that fewer people remodeled their kitchens and caused an overall decline in demand.
No reduced demand, but Trump's steel tariffs just similarly raised the price of American steel.
And don't forget Reagan's team making that backroom deal with the Iranians to hold on releasing the hostages till he was inaugurated, even though Carter's foreign policy team and the French did all of the negotiations. Ronnie was a self-serving asshole.
~ Buckaroo Banzai
Well, yeah, he was a Republican.
At this point, it's actively selected for, if not straight up a requirement.
It’s gonna take much diplomacy and effort on the Biden Administration to even get to where Obama left things, let alone the wet trash fire Trump left for us.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
I know it looks different to us here but there's a chance that foreign governments *might* be willing to hedge that Trump was a one-term anomaly. A lot of bridges have been burned but I'm not sure we are going to be quite at the zero point trump left us at least with allies, and Biden getting us engaged with international organizations again is a good first step to signal a return to normalcy.
Again its another thing if you start asking countries to make economic sacrifices to contain China, but at least NATO and Korea/Japan/Taiwan will be feeling much better overnight.
Even if it's not normalcy, at least they know what the next four years get them. Not sure they'll settle for any agreements lasting beyond 2025, especially if Trump runs again.
But the next four years, they can accept what the President says means something, he won't reverse himself on a whim, and more importantly, the people he assigns to speak on his behalf, do so.
Having to negotiate directly with the President because of how many times he has rejected terms agreed to by diplomats, would be so fucking frustrating, given how few hours a week he actually works.
They didn't say that last part out loud and maybe I've gotten crazy and paranoid these last few years trying to hear dogwhistles but that's always the vibe I've been getting.
Sane or not, most allies worked fine with Obama and even Bush. America being an imperialist nation that unilaterally invades and bombs "lesser" places has always been known to be part of the deal. Pulling your troops out of allied nations overnight with zero warning less so. Its not about America being the "good guys" so much as just having a bare minimum of predictability and consistency.
No country with rational leadership want to be in a position where they have to rely on long term sanity from the US. Even NATO is not longer reliable.
Which is fine if you have enough local production, which is why I assume it was her first point.
It’s not a very important country most of the time
http://steamcommunity.com/id/mortious
Trump is unique - a media figure 40 years in the making whose aura of vast wealth and vulgar excess appeals to his cult in ways that go beyond simple politics.
You're assuming Trump doesn't run in 2024.
It's possible, and if it happens, not impossible he wins.
That there is nightmare fuel.
Fascism happened before, and it will happen again.
There's no shortage of vulgar rich guys.
It’s more than that. Trump was THE vulgar rich guy on America’s TV for 40 years.
There's all the Fox News guys. They may not be billionaires, but they can do the media blowhard thing better than Trump - he was constantly phoning them for advice.
Sure, but cult of personality movements always have rough transitions when the Dear Leader dies. Trump is not an easily replaceable cog, but a celebrity whose rise to power came out of 40 years of ubiquity in American culture.
* not to be confused with actual prodigies, artists, autists, sufferers from mental illness, etc etc etc.
At least, not as long as the US is the dominant economic and military power of the world and China and Russia remain even worse.
I’m not saying it isn’t bullshit, because it is bullshit, but its not a serious consideration to expect other nations to not make deals with the US just because things might change in four years.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
The EU is already making serious moves toward a unified defense force that operates outside the need for NATO. It is less that the rest of the world isolate the U.S. and more that they move away from requiring the U.S. to be more than an erratic world power that they can deal with, oppose, or ignore as necessary.
End of hegemony and transition to a multi-polar world, in the foreign policy lingo.
My point is that if Biden tries to implement TTP or Iran Deal 2.0, or tries to join the Paris Climate Accord, or puts international sanctions on Putin, what country won’t come to the table even if there’s a risk of the next Trump undoing all of it?
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
TTP 2.0 was already implemented.
With the TTP, especially, I definitely think the U.S. is not just going to be able to show up and join. There will be the demand for concessions and guarantees.
The guaruntees will be the trade agreements implemented.
The concessions will be us trying to get all the IP bullshit put in after the fact, and being told to fuck off.
At least I hope.
Why concede anything to the US for them to join TTP when they will just randomly start a trade war and basically prevent you from getting what you are supposed to get ?
The worst decision Canada ever made was to agree to free trade with the US. At least China does not start trade wars for fun.
Deal with includes a lot of different possibilities. And a baked in assumption that any agreements are only valid for four years means, in simplistic terms, that the US will have to offer more to get the same results.
I disagree.
Iran has every reason to come to the table to alleviate US sanctions. Obviously Iran would be appropriately circumspect in curtailing their nuclear ambitions based of the US’s political system being schizophrenic and the world history on what happens when nations denuclearize.
But let’s be real here, even four years of lessened sanctions would entice Iran to the table. I’m not saying Biden is gonna be some kind of hard-ass or whatever, but he’s starting where Trump ended and there’s just no way he’s gonna risk political capital without getting something tangible first and I’m confident Iran will comply if it makes things even temporarily better for them. There’s very little political reason for Biden to risk Dem executive power without tangible gains to present to the insane US populace.
I’m reminded of the UK thread where some posters have readily admitted that there’s just no way Biden gives them a good trade deal, because why would he? It’s not in Biden’s political interest to help the UK if it harms the US administration politically.
Same with the TTP; the US needs to be involved to give it sharper teeth. Like, I get that it sucks, but the US is the largest consumer of Chinese products by a heavy margin. If the world wants to curtail that to improve their interests in Chinese produced goods, then the US has to be at the table for it to really work like we want to.
Any concession that Biden gives to be involved in world politics will be a pittance at best.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
I seem to recall that deals like this usually involve incremental loosening of sanctions so it's probably not even a full four years. How is that worth being able to secure yourself against foreign invasion forever and probably also strong arming your neighbors into giving you an even better deal? The only reason I could see Iran agreeing to any deal is if they don't actually have the capability or desire to complete a nuclear weapons program. And even then any deal would probably require significantly more front loaded benefits.
I’m imagining a future where Biden or Iran never come to the table together. So what about Israel and Saudi Arabia’s interests in Iranian nuclear power, who gets involved then? Which nation is gonna defend Iran in that climate without the US? If Iran becomes a nuclear power, then what happens with the other Iran Deal nations?
Do we really think the EU is gonna stop Israel or SA from preventing a nuclear Iran and the US will do nothing?
I get it, having the US involved is a recipe for a potentially unknown disaster, it’s unfair and it’s bullshit. But not having the US involved is, IMO, predictable bullshit and I know which type of bullshit the world prefers to avoid.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
Israel and Saudi Arabia will need to decide if they think they can stop it and if it is worth the risk. If they do, then we get to see how Israel's air capabilities stack up against Iran's air defenses. And then presumably the cold war that has been growing in the Middle East turns hot and Iran starts blowing up Saudi Arabian oil refineries again. And if your argument is that obviously Iran would prefer some dubious concessions from the US over taking this kind of risk, I'm not sure what reason there is to be confident in that. It's probably entirely reasonable to think or at least convince themselves that they can protect their facilities long enough to get a working bomb, or that Israel will blink or mistime it and wait too long.
Although this is all kind of assuming that Iran doesn't implode, because the last thing I heard was that it was being hit really hard by COVID and I haven't heard anything on how that is working out in a while.
If we’re assuming the US isn’t involved, we can’t assume other nations won’t be.
Under what circumstances does that happen and the EU, or especially Russia and China, not get involved?
In a vacuum, Iran ignoring the US and everyone lawling could be a thing, but we don’t live in a vacuum and there’s no way Biden or the EU allows China or Russia to gain an advantage in the Middle East, which means the US has to be involved, which means the US and all it’s bullshit gets a seat at the table.
Like my original assertion; if we want to curtail Russia and China’s power, the US must be involved. Which means curtailing US power will be symbolic at best else Russia and China gain world power, and I seriously doubt the world bets on Russia and China acting in good faith vs a schizophrenic US executive.
Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.