We should expect an immediate end to trade war tariffs too, right?
Eh, it'll probably be a slow de-escalation. The main damage with those is already done (reduction in USA diplomatic capabilities/soft power).
Also, they need to happen with the drop of retaliatory tariffs. Which means having a staffed State and Commerce Department to actually talk to people. So first we need to, you know, do that.
These next few months are just going to be... so much.
Which seems unsustainable to me. Every new town home going up in the greater DMV area and even outside it is starting at $650K. Anything I saw on Zillow in the city for under $500K is in the 500-600 sqft range. Wages aren't skyrocketing and I'm not sure I see a path where they will in the next decade.
So if the interest rate goes up again, who can afford all these homes? For example (not listing taxes and other fees), $800K home @ 2.3% for 30 is $2,462 a month. @ 4% for 30 it's $3,055 a month. Will wages increase so I'll make $500 more a month in the next 10 years? If not and you buy now and want/need to sell, you're either A) listing it for what you paid and maybe getting someone richer than you to bite or selling at a loss to get more offers. Not to mention as prices skyrocket so does you down payment and closing costs. EDIT: To be fair, the cheaper the loan the less interest rates impact the monthly bill. But sadly cheap houses are in short supply.
While it would be nice to know if we'll stay in the area for 15+ years, it's pretty hard to tell with the job market these days. Heck, the some of these city areas are getting so large, you can move jobs within the city and your nice commute now turns into a nightmare, should the new job be on the other side.
I suppose the smart move would be to just find areas we'd like to buy and rent their first to make sure we like it. Then hope an opportunity shows up down the road.
If prices go up, wealthier people just occupy the homes. Unless there's vacant inventory sitting around (which there basically never is in the metro areas we are thinking of here) it's entirely a matter of demand. Too many people, not enough housing. Basically high prices aren't a problem for someone buying the house, they are just a problem for you buying the house.
In summary, build more housing where people want to live.
We'll see. If post pandemic see's businesses pulling out of large cities due to the cost, wishful thinking would be the government stepping in and mandating cost controlled 2b/2b 1000-1500sqft condos.
I don't see DMV prices going down ever barring say, nuclear war annihilates DC and nobody decides to rebuild the capital there because it's a radioactive hellscape. I've owned my townhome for almost four years and it's gained like 15% value in that amount of time. There are always going to be people here due to government jobs and the various military bases means there's always demand year round as people get transferred and stuff. I'm looking at buying a new house now due to the rates and there's just zero supply right now.
Hell, prices where I grew up (Frederick County, VA area) are also fucking nuts since I graduated and that's an hour and a half away from the city. It's not really the middle of nowhere but it's adjacent to it. I imagine housing in most metro areas is similar, but the major industries in DC are all government related whether it's the actual bureaucracy, lobbyists, or contractors. It's just not going anywhere. The large businesses can't leave, they need to do their business here, these big defense contractors will need offices here, the lobbyists need to be here. The cost is not super relevant. It'd be like trying to move your mining operation from the mine to somewhere that's cheaper and easier. That's all great but you need the actual fucking mine.
Yeah I've heard pretty similar from folks here. It makes sense. What I'm struggling with isn't that there are jobs here, but the how much they are paying compared to the cost of housing inflation due to low interest rates. If you use that rule of "don't spend more the 30%" of your monthly salary on housing and using a higher end GS pay scale of GS-13, that's roughly $1,500 a month. With interest rates today, that's around $330,000-ish. There's not a lot you can get for that, and that's on the higher end of the Fed payscale. For military, just looking online it seems a Major General rank is similar in pay (2 steps below General).
Now I'm sure there are plenty of lobbyists, lawyers, executives, doctors, etc that make well above a GS-13 payscale. Also if your SO has a good job as well that can push you into the bottom of what is showing up. I'm just concerned that there aren't that many folks making that payscale or above for most homes to be starting in the $650K range and that folks are going way over the 30% rule for home buying. And what will the repercussions be of that?
Which seems unsustainable to me. Every new town home going up in the greater DMV area and even outside it is starting at $650K. Anything I saw on Zillow in the city for under $500K is in the 500-600 sqft range. Wages aren't skyrocketing and I'm not sure I see a path where they will in the next decade.
So if the interest rate goes up again, who can afford all these homes? For example (not listing taxes and other fees), $800K home @ 2.3% for 30 is $2,462 a month. @ 4% for 30 it's $3,055 a month. Will wages increase so I'll make $500 more a month in the next 10 years? If not and you buy now and want/need to sell, you're either A) listing it for what you paid and maybe getting someone richer than you to bite or selling at a loss to get more offers. Not to mention as prices skyrocket so does you down payment and closing costs. EDIT: To be fair, the cheaper the loan the less interest rates impact the monthly bill. But sadly cheap houses are in short supply.
While it would be nice to know if we'll stay in the area for 15+ years, it's pretty hard to tell with the job market these days. Heck, the some of these city areas are getting so large, you can move jobs within the city and your nice commute now turns into a nightmare, should the new job be on the other side.
I suppose the smart move would be to just find areas we'd like to buy and rent their first to make sure we like it. Then hope an opportunity shows up down the road.
If prices go up, wealthier people just occupy the homes. Unless there's vacant inventory sitting around (which there basically never is in the metro areas we are thinking of here) it's entirely a matter of demand. Too many people, not enough housing. Basically high prices aren't a problem for someone buying the house, they are just a problem for you buying the house.
In summary, build more housing where people want to live.
We'll see. If post pandemic see's businesses pulling out of large cities due to the cost, wishful thinking would be the government stepping in and mandating cost controlled 2b/2b 1000-1500sqft condos.
I don't see DMV prices going down ever barring say, nuclear war annihilates DC and nobody decides to rebuild the capital there because it's a radioactive hellscape. I've owned my townhome for almost four years and it's gained like 15% value in that amount of time. There are always going to be people here due to government jobs and the various military bases means there's always demand year round as people get transferred and stuff. I'm looking at buying a new house now due to the rates and there's just zero supply right now.
Hell, prices where I grew up (Frederick County, VA area) are also fucking nuts since I graduated and that's an hour and a half away from the city. It's not really the middle of nowhere but it's adjacent to it. I imagine housing in most metro areas is similar, but the major industries in DC are all government related whether it's the actual bureaucracy, lobbyists, or contractors. It's just not going anywhere. The large businesses can't leave, they need to do their business here, these big defense contractors will need offices here, the lobbyists need to be here. The cost is not super relevant. It'd be like trying to move your mining operation from the mine to somewhere that's cheaper and easier. That's all great but you need the actual fucking mine.
Yeah I've heard pretty similar from folks here. It makes sense. What I'm struggling with isn't that there are jobs here, but the how much they are paying compared to the cost of housing inflation due to low interest rates. If you use that rule of "don't spend more the 30%" of your monthly salary on housing and using a higher end GS pay scale of GS-13, that's roughly $1,500 a month. With interest rates today, that's around $330,000-ish. There's not a lot you can get for that, and that's on the higher end of the Fed payscale. For military, just looking online it seems a Major General rank is similar in pay (2 steps below General).
Now I'm sure there are plenty of lobbyists, lawyers, executives, doctors, etc that make well above a GS-13 payscale. Also if your SO has a good job as well that can push you into the bottom of what is showing up. I'm just concerned that there aren't that many folks making that payscale or above for most homes to be starting in the $650K range and that folks are going way over the 30% rule for home buying. And what will the repercussions be of that?
Are you using the base GS scale there? Because literally no one makes that. There's always location pay, and sometimes it's a lot.
It's a rule of thumb that, like most rules of thumb, doesn't actually work well compared to analyzing the numbers and situation and is based on some outmoded assumptions. Also, transportation costs are a huge factor that often get overlooked. It's part of why home prices next to rail stations are so high. When we got rid of our car it was a huge variable expense that was replaced with a flat $105/month transit pass. Even just taking the fixed costs of insurance and annual stickers we came out ahead. Let alone adding the cost of gas and random repairs. Money that we could theoretically spend on the mortgage, rather than pocketing, and swing a much pricier home than if we lived somewhere more car dependent.
Which seems unsustainable to me. Every new town home going up in the greater DMV area and even outside it is starting at $650K. Anything I saw on Zillow in the city for under $500K is in the 500-600 sqft range. Wages aren't skyrocketing and I'm not sure I see a path where they will in the next decade.
So if the interest rate goes up again, who can afford all these homes? For example (not listing taxes and other fees), $800K home @ 2.3% for 30 is $2,462 a month. @ 4% for 30 it's $3,055 a month. Will wages increase so I'll make $500 more a month in the next 10 years? If not and you buy now and want/need to sell, you're either A) listing it for what you paid and maybe getting someone richer than you to bite or selling at a loss to get more offers. Not to mention as prices skyrocket so does you down payment and closing costs. EDIT: To be fair, the cheaper the loan the less interest rates impact the monthly bill. But sadly cheap houses are in short supply.
While it would be nice to know if we'll stay in the area for 15+ years, it's pretty hard to tell with the job market these days. Heck, the some of these city areas are getting so large, you can move jobs within the city and your nice commute now turns into a nightmare, should the new job be on the other side.
I suppose the smart move would be to just find areas we'd like to buy and rent their first to make sure we like it. Then hope an opportunity shows up down the road.
If prices go up, wealthier people just occupy the homes. Unless there's vacant inventory sitting around (which there basically never is in the metro areas we are thinking of here) it's entirely a matter of demand. Too many people, not enough housing. Basically high prices aren't a problem for someone buying the house, they are just a problem for you buying the house.
In summary, build more housing where people want to live.
We'll see. If post pandemic see's businesses pulling out of large cities due to the cost, wishful thinking would be the government stepping in and mandating cost controlled 2b/2b 1000-1500sqft condos.
I don't see DMV prices going down ever barring say, nuclear war annihilates DC and nobody decides to rebuild the capital there because it's a radioactive hellscape. I've owned my townhome for almost four years and it's gained like 15% value in that amount of time. There are always going to be people here due to government jobs and the various military bases means there's always demand year round as people get transferred and stuff. I'm looking at buying a new house now due to the rates and there's just zero supply right now.
Hell, prices where I grew up (Frederick County, VA area) are also fucking nuts since I graduated and that's an hour and a half away from the city. It's not really the middle of nowhere but it's adjacent to it. I imagine housing in most metro areas is similar, but the major industries in DC are all government related whether it's the actual bureaucracy, lobbyists, or contractors. It's just not going anywhere. The large businesses can't leave, they need to do their business here, these big defense contractors will need offices here, the lobbyists need to be here. The cost is not super relevant. It'd be like trying to move your mining operation from the mine to somewhere that's cheaper and easier. That's all great but you need the actual fucking mine.
Yeah I've heard pretty similar from folks here. It makes sense. What I'm struggling with isn't that there are jobs here, but the how much they are paying compared to the cost of housing inflation due to low interest rates. If you use that rule of "don't spend more the 30%" of your monthly salary on housing and using a higher end GS pay scale of GS-13, that's roughly $1,500 a month. With interest rates today, that's around $330,000-ish. There's not a lot you can get for that, and that's on the higher end of the Fed payscale. For military, just looking online it seems a Major General rank is similar in pay (2 steps below General).
Now I'm sure there are plenty of lobbyists, lawyers, executives, doctors, etc that make well above a GS-13 payscale. Also if your SO has a good job as well that can push you into the bottom of what is showing up. I'm just concerned that there aren't that many folks making that payscale or above for most homes to be starting in the $650K range and that folks are going way over the 30% rule for home buying. And what will the repercussions be of that?
Are you using the base GS scale there? Because literally no one makes that. There's always location pay, and sometimes it's a lot.
A lowest level GS 13 makes 103690, which puts 30% monthly at 2592.25
The fact that GSA/OPM already does this shows how relatively easy it would be to have a variable rate Federal minimum wage if Republicans actually believed their complaint about its impact on small towns, rather than just used it as an excuse to do nothing.
I thought the 30% rule was for renting and that the math is less clear if you're buying?
I'm almost positive that when I first moved out on my own, which admittedly was was over two decades ago, the rule was don't spend more than 20%(ish) of your income on housing.
Which kinda tells me something all by itself.
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ChaosHatHop, hop, hop, HA!Trick of the lightRegistered Userregular
Which seems unsustainable to me. Every new town home going up in the greater DMV area and even outside it is starting at $650K. Anything I saw on Zillow in the city for under $500K is in the 500-600 sqft range. Wages aren't skyrocketing and I'm not sure I see a path where they will in the next decade.
So if the interest rate goes up again, who can afford all these homes? For example (not listing taxes and other fees), $800K home @ 2.3% for 30 is $2,462 a month. @ 4% for 30 it's $3,055 a month. Will wages increase so I'll make $500 more a month in the next 10 years? If not and you buy now and want/need to sell, you're either A) listing it for what you paid and maybe getting someone richer than you to bite or selling at a loss to get more offers. Not to mention as prices skyrocket so does you down payment and closing costs. EDIT: To be fair, the cheaper the loan the less interest rates impact the monthly bill. But sadly cheap houses are in short supply.
While it would be nice to know if we'll stay in the area for 15+ years, it's pretty hard to tell with the job market these days. Heck, the some of these city areas are getting so large, you can move jobs within the city and your nice commute now turns into a nightmare, should the new job be on the other side.
I suppose the smart move would be to just find areas we'd like to buy and rent their first to make sure we like it. Then hope an opportunity shows up down the road.
If prices go up, wealthier people just occupy the homes. Unless there's vacant inventory sitting around (which there basically never is in the metro areas we are thinking of here) it's entirely a matter of demand. Too many people, not enough housing. Basically high prices aren't a problem for someone buying the house, they are just a problem for you buying the house.
In summary, build more housing where people want to live.
We'll see. If post pandemic see's businesses pulling out of large cities due to the cost, wishful thinking would be the government stepping in and mandating cost controlled 2b/2b 1000-1500sqft condos.
I don't see DMV prices going down ever barring say, nuclear war annihilates DC and nobody decides to rebuild the capital there because it's a radioactive hellscape. I've owned my townhome for almost four years and it's gained like 15% value in that amount of time. There are always going to be people here due to government jobs and the various military bases means there's always demand year round as people get transferred and stuff. I'm looking at buying a new house now due to the rates and there's just zero supply right now.
Hell, prices where I grew up (Frederick County, VA area) are also fucking nuts since I graduated and that's an hour and a half away from the city. It's not really the middle of nowhere but it's adjacent to it. I imagine housing in most metro areas is similar, but the major industries in DC are all government related whether it's the actual bureaucracy, lobbyists, or contractors. It's just not going anywhere. The large businesses can't leave, they need to do their business here, these big defense contractors will need offices here, the lobbyists need to be here. The cost is not super relevant. It'd be like trying to move your mining operation from the mine to somewhere that's cheaper and easier. That's all great but you need the actual fucking mine.
Yeah I've heard pretty similar from folks here. It makes sense. What I'm struggling with isn't that there are jobs here, but the how much they are paying compared to the cost of housing inflation due to low interest rates. If you use that rule of "don't spend more the 30%" of your monthly salary on housing and using a higher end GS pay scale of GS-13, that's roughly $1,500 a month. With interest rates today, that's around $330,000-ish. There's not a lot you can get for that, and that's on the higher end of the Fed payscale. For military, just looking online it seems a Major General rank is similar in pay (2 steps below General).
Now I'm sure there are plenty of lobbyists, lawyers, executives, doctors, etc that make well above a GS-13 payscale. Also if your SO has a good job as well that can push you into the bottom of what is showing up. I'm just concerned that there aren't that many folks making that payscale or above for most homes to be starting in the $650K range and that folks are going way over the 30% rule for home buying. And what will the repercussions be of that?
First, I don't know many people that are home buyers with one income, so that's going to at least double the amount of monthly payment you have to throw at it. Second, there's a decent amount of super rich people around here but it feels like everything is growing at an accelerating rate around here. There are a ton of people who bought reasonably priced things in Vienna, Dunn Loring, Falls Church, etc decades ago that are now worth a crazy amount of money purely on the value of the land. If you drive around those towns, parts of Arlington and Alexandria, you'll find a ton of neighborhoods with reasonable/modest looking houses and every few driveways you'll find a giant behemoth that dwarfs the neighbors. This entire area is going to look way different in a couple decades once all the people who bought here in the 80s start dying off and people buy up all that land to redevelop it.
I'm a home buyer with one income, but I also don't have kinds or any big money pits. And I'm getting ready to pay off may mortgage this month. And I'm down to sell this place and get one with a garage if the money works.
Which seems unsustainable to me. Every new town home going up in the greater DMV area and even outside it is starting at $650K. Anything I saw on Zillow in the city for under $500K is in the 500-600 sqft range. Wages aren't skyrocketing and I'm not sure I see a path where they will in the next decade.
So if the interest rate goes up again, who can afford all these homes? For example (not listing taxes and other fees), $800K home @ 2.3% for 30 is $2,462 a month. @ 4% for 30 it's $3,055 a month. Will wages increase so I'll make $500 more a month in the next 10 years? If not and you buy now and want/need to sell, you're either A) listing it for what you paid and maybe getting someone richer than you to bite or selling at a loss to get more offers. Not to mention as prices skyrocket so does you down payment and closing costs. EDIT: To be fair, the cheaper the loan the less interest rates impact the monthly bill. But sadly cheap houses are in short supply.
While it would be nice to know if we'll stay in the area for 15+ years, it's pretty hard to tell with the job market these days. Heck, the some of these city areas are getting so large, you can move jobs within the city and your nice commute now turns into a nightmare, should the new job be on the other side.
I suppose the smart move would be to just find areas we'd like to buy and rent their first to make sure we like it. Then hope an opportunity shows up down the road.
If prices go up, wealthier people just occupy the homes. Unless there's vacant inventory sitting around (which there basically never is in the metro areas we are thinking of here) it's entirely a matter of demand. Too many people, not enough housing. Basically high prices aren't a problem for someone buying the house, they are just a problem for you buying the house.
In summary, build more housing where people want to live.
We'll see. If post pandemic see's businesses pulling out of large cities due to the cost, wishful thinking would be the government stepping in and mandating cost controlled 2b/2b 1000-1500sqft condos.
I don't see DMV prices going down ever barring say, nuclear war annihilates DC and nobody decides to rebuild the capital there because it's a radioactive hellscape. I've owned my townhome for almost four years and it's gained like 15% value in that amount of time. There are always going to be people here due to government jobs and the various military bases means there's always demand year round as people get transferred and stuff. I'm looking at buying a new house now due to the rates and there's just zero supply right now.
Hell, prices where I grew up (Frederick County, VA area) are also fucking nuts since I graduated and that's an hour and a half away from the city. It's not really the middle of nowhere but it's adjacent to it. I imagine housing in most metro areas is similar, but the major industries in DC are all government related whether it's the actual bureaucracy, lobbyists, or contractors. It's just not going anywhere. The large businesses can't leave, they need to do their business here, these big defense contractors will need offices here, the lobbyists need to be here. The cost is not super relevant. It'd be like trying to move your mining operation from the mine to somewhere that's cheaper and easier. That's all great but you need the actual fucking mine.
Yeah I've heard pretty similar from folks here. It makes sense. What I'm struggling with isn't that there are jobs here, but the how much they are paying compared to the cost of housing inflation due to low interest rates. If you use that rule of "don't spend more the 30%" of your monthly salary on housing and using a higher end GS pay scale of GS-13, that's roughly $1,500 a month. With interest rates today, that's around $330,000-ish. There's not a lot you can get for that, and that's on the higher end of the Fed payscale. For military, just looking online it seems a Major General rank is similar in pay (2 steps below General).
Now I'm sure there are plenty of lobbyists, lawyers, executives, doctors, etc that make well above a GS-13 payscale. Also if your SO has a good job as well that can push you into the bottom of what is showing up. I'm just concerned that there aren't that many folks making that payscale or above for most homes to be starting in the $650K range and that folks are going way over the 30% rule for home buying. And what will the repercussions be of that?
First, I don't know many people that are home buyers with one income, so that's going to at least double the amount of monthly payment you have to throw at it. Second, there's a decent amount of super rich people around here but it feels like everything is growing at an accelerating rate around here. There are a ton of people who bought reasonably priced things in Vienna, Dunn Loring, Falls Church, etc decades ago that are now worth a crazy amount of money purely on the value of the land. If you drive around those towns, parts of Arlington and Alexandria, you'll find a ton of neighborhoods with reasonable/modest looking houses and every few driveways you'll find a giant behemoth that dwarfs the neighbors. This entire area is going to look way different in a couple decades once all the people who bought here in the 80s start dying off and people buy up all that land to redevelop it.
Yeah I was just doing some quick math late at night. If you have a spouse, you'll have more income. That said, even if they are another GS-13, that puts in the $650K range, which is doable, but plenty of townhomes and houses going for more than that as well. I'm not as familiar with VA, mostly looking in MD or DC itself, but I know with the Silver Line to Dulles expansion, prices seem to be skyrocketing over there as well. If work travel wasn't an issue, I'd 100% be looking at Reston or further out to try and jump on some lower prices before the perk of the silver line drives costs even higher.
Though it's funny, looking in northern Maryland and noticed someone was selling a townhome where we were looking to buy. They are selling after 1 year and listed it back in September. It's still listed as what started as 40K over what they paid, is now $13K under what they paid. It's certainly giving me pause on townhomes though. Houses barely last a week, but I've started seeing more townhomes that have been on the market for a decent time. Playing into my worst fear about nightmare neighbors.
Which seems unsustainable to me. Every new town home going up in the greater DMV area and even outside it is starting at $650K. Anything I saw on Zillow in the city for under $500K is in the 500-600 sqft range. Wages aren't skyrocketing and I'm not sure I see a path where they will in the next decade.
So if the interest rate goes up again, who can afford all these homes? For example (not listing taxes and other fees), $800K home @ 2.3% for 30 is $2,462 a month. @ 4% for 30 it's $3,055 a month. Will wages increase so I'll make $500 more a month in the next 10 years? If not and you buy now and want/need to sell, you're either A) listing it for what you paid and maybe getting someone richer than you to bite or selling at a loss to get more offers. Not to mention as prices skyrocket so does you down payment and closing costs. EDIT: To be fair, the cheaper the loan the less interest rates impact the monthly bill. But sadly cheap houses are in short supply.
While it would be nice to know if we'll stay in the area for 15+ years, it's pretty hard to tell with the job market these days. Heck, the some of these city areas are getting so large, you can move jobs within the city and your nice commute now turns into a nightmare, should the new job be on the other side.
I suppose the smart move would be to just find areas we'd like to buy and rent their first to make sure we like it. Then hope an opportunity shows up down the road.
If prices go up, wealthier people just occupy the homes. Unless there's vacant inventory sitting around (which there basically never is in the metro areas we are thinking of here) it's entirely a matter of demand. Too many people, not enough housing. Basically high prices aren't a problem for someone buying the house, they are just a problem for you buying the house.
In summary, build more housing where people want to live.
We'll see. If post pandemic see's businesses pulling out of large cities due to the cost, wishful thinking would be the government stepping in and mandating cost controlled 2b/2b 1000-1500sqft condos.
I don't see DMV prices going down ever barring say, nuclear war annihilates DC and nobody decides to rebuild the capital there because it's a radioactive hellscape. I've owned my townhome for almost four years and it's gained like 15% value in that amount of time. There are always going to be people here due to government jobs and the various military bases means there's always demand year round as people get transferred and stuff. I'm looking at buying a new house now due to the rates and there's just zero supply right now.
Hell, prices where I grew up (Frederick County, VA area) are also fucking nuts since I graduated and that's an hour and a half away from the city. It's not really the middle of nowhere but it's adjacent to it. I imagine housing in most metro areas is similar, but the major industries in DC are all government related whether it's the actual bureaucracy, lobbyists, or contractors. It's just not going anywhere. The large businesses can't leave, they need to do their business here, these big defense contractors will need offices here, the lobbyists need to be here. The cost is not super relevant. It'd be like trying to move your mining operation from the mine to somewhere that's cheaper and easier. That's all great but you need the actual fucking mine.
Yeah I've heard pretty similar from folks here. It makes sense. What I'm struggling with isn't that there are jobs here, but the how much they are paying compared to the cost of housing inflation due to low interest rates. If you use that rule of "don't spend more the 30%" of your monthly salary on housing and using a higher end GS pay scale of GS-13, that's roughly $1,500 a month. With interest rates today, that's around $330,000-ish. There's not a lot you can get for that, and that's on the higher end of the Fed payscale. For military, just looking online it seems a Major General rank is similar in pay (2 steps below General).
Now I'm sure there are plenty of lobbyists, lawyers, executives, doctors, etc that make well above a GS-13 payscale. Also if your SO has a good job as well that can push you into the bottom of what is showing up. I'm just concerned that there aren't that many folks making that payscale or above for most homes to be starting in the $650K range and that folks are going way over the 30% rule for home buying. And what will the repercussions be of that?
Are you using the base GS scale there? Because literally no one makes that. There's always location pay, and sometimes it's a lot.
A lowest level GS 13 makes 103690, which puts 30% monthly at 2592.25
I was using post tax GS 13 from someone that is in that position and what they relayed to me. My math could easily be a bit off though. I never understood the idea of 30% pre-tax, seemed way too high.
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ButtersA glass of some milksRegistered Userregular
Which seems unsustainable to me. Every new town home going up in the greater DMV area and even outside it is starting at $650K. Anything I saw on Zillow in the city for under $500K is in the 500-600 sqft range. Wages aren't skyrocketing and I'm not sure I see a path where they will in the next decade.
So if the interest rate goes up again, who can afford all these homes? For example (not listing taxes and other fees), $800K home @ 2.3% for 30 is $2,462 a month. @ 4% for 30 it's $3,055 a month. Will wages increase so I'll make $500 more a month in the next 10 years? If not and you buy now and want/need to sell, you're either A) listing it for what you paid and maybe getting someone richer than you to bite or selling at a loss to get more offers. Not to mention as prices skyrocket so does you down payment and closing costs. EDIT: To be fair, the cheaper the loan the less interest rates impact the monthly bill. But sadly cheap houses are in short supply.
While it would be nice to know if we'll stay in the area for 15+ years, it's pretty hard to tell with the job market these days. Heck, the some of these city areas are getting so large, you can move jobs within the city and your nice commute now turns into a nightmare, should the new job be on the other side.
I suppose the smart move would be to just find areas we'd like to buy and rent their first to make sure we like it. Then hope an opportunity shows up down the road.
If prices go up, wealthier people just occupy the homes. Unless there's vacant inventory sitting around (which there basically never is in the metro areas we are thinking of here) it's entirely a matter of demand. Too many people, not enough housing. Basically high prices aren't a problem for someone buying the house, they are just a problem for you buying the house.
In summary, build more housing where people want to live.
We'll see. If post pandemic see's businesses pulling out of large cities due to the cost, wishful thinking would be the government stepping in and mandating cost controlled 2b/2b 1000-1500sqft condos.
I don't see DMV prices going down ever barring say, nuclear war annihilates DC and nobody decides to rebuild the capital there because it's a radioactive hellscape. I've owned my townhome for almost four years and it's gained like 15% value in that amount of time. There are always going to be people here due to government jobs and the various military bases means there's always demand year round as people get transferred and stuff. I'm looking at buying a new house now due to the rates and there's just zero supply right now.
Hell, prices where I grew up (Frederick County, VA area) are also fucking nuts since I graduated and that's an hour and a half away from the city. It's not really the middle of nowhere but it's adjacent to it. I imagine housing in most metro areas is similar, but the major industries in DC are all government related whether it's the actual bureaucracy, lobbyists, or contractors. It's just not going anywhere. The large businesses can't leave, they need to do their business here, these big defense contractors will need offices here, the lobbyists need to be here. The cost is not super relevant. It'd be like trying to move your mining operation from the mine to somewhere that's cheaper and easier. That's all great but you need the actual fucking mine.
Yeah I've heard pretty similar from folks here. It makes sense. What I'm struggling with isn't that there are jobs here, but the how much they are paying compared to the cost of housing inflation due to low interest rates. If you use that rule of "don't spend more the 30%" of your monthly salary on housing and using a higher end GS pay scale of GS-13, that's roughly $1,500 a month. With interest rates today, that's around $330,000-ish. There's not a lot you can get for that, and that's on the higher end of the Fed payscale. For military, just looking online it seems a Major General rank is similar in pay (2 steps below General).
Now I'm sure there are plenty of lobbyists, lawyers, executives, doctors, etc that make well above a GS-13 payscale. Also if your SO has a good job as well that can push you into the bottom of what is showing up. I'm just concerned that there aren't that many folks making that payscale or above for most homes to be starting in the $650K range and that folks are going way over the 30% rule for home buying. And what will the repercussions be of that?
First, I don't know many people that are home buyers with one income, so that's going to at least double the amount of monthly payment you have to throw at it. Second, there's a decent amount of super rich people around here but it feels like everything is growing at an accelerating rate around here. There are a ton of people who bought reasonably priced things in Vienna, Dunn Loring, Falls Church, etc decades ago that are now worth a crazy amount of money purely on the value of the land. If you drive around those towns, parts of Arlington and Alexandria, you'll find a ton of neighborhoods with reasonable/modest looking houses and every few driveways you'll find a giant behemoth that dwarfs the neighbors. This entire area is going to look way different in a couple decades once all the people who bought here in the 80s start dying off and people buy up all that land to redevelop it.
Yeah I was just doing some quick math late at night. If you have a spouse, you'll have more income. That said, even if they are another GS-13, that puts in the $650K range, which is doable, but plenty of townhomes and houses going for more than that as well. I'm not as familiar with VA, mostly looking in MD or DC itself, but I know with the Silver Line to Dulles expansion, prices seem to be skyrocketing over there as well. If work travel wasn't an issue, I'd 100% be looking at Reston or further out to try and jump on some lower prices before the perk of the silver line drives costs even higher.
Though it's funny, looking in northern Maryland and noticed someone was selling a townhome where we were looking to buy. They are selling after 1 year and listed it back in September. It's still listed as what started as 40K over what they paid, is now $13K under what they paid. It's certainly giving me pause on townhomes though. Houses barely last a week, but I've started seeing more townhomes that have been on the market for a decent time. Playing into my worst fear about nightmare neighbors.
Knowing your neighbors? What are you, old? Neighbors are people you awkwardly wave at when they happen to be outside when you're returning home. I currently live in a townhome, it's not bad at all, but I do have an end unit so that reduces neighbor interactions. Another important factor with regards to your monthly is how much you put down. Like I said, we're looking to move, and having built up some equity in the place and the profit off the sale will let us put more down on the next one.
I'm not sure about MD/DC, but yeah, if you're looking for a decent stand alone house, it's going to be spendy. Like that part of the American dream (house with decent yard available) is kind of a joke in this area unless you're able to spend 800k+ on a house. We're kind of on the borderline of bigger townhouse/small house depending on exactly where. Part of me is leaning towards get more house because it's going to crazy increase in value but then I remember it's really just not that liquid and if I toss the money into an index fund I'll probably be just as well off in the end.
Which seems unsustainable to me. Every new town home going up in the greater DMV area and even outside it is starting at $650K. Anything I saw on Zillow in the city for under $500K is in the 500-600 sqft range. Wages aren't skyrocketing and I'm not sure I see a path where they will in the next decade.
So if the interest rate goes up again, who can afford all these homes? For example (not listing taxes and other fees), $800K home @ 2.3% for 30 is $2,462 a month. @ 4% for 30 it's $3,055 a month. Will wages increase so I'll make $500 more a month in the next 10 years? If not and you buy now and want/need to sell, you're either A) listing it for what you paid and maybe getting someone richer than you to bite or selling at a loss to get more offers. Not to mention as prices skyrocket so does you down payment and closing costs. EDIT: To be fair, the cheaper the loan the less interest rates impact the monthly bill. But sadly cheap houses are in short supply.
While it would be nice to know if we'll stay in the area for 15+ years, it's pretty hard to tell with the job market these days. Heck, the some of these city areas are getting so large, you can move jobs within the city and your nice commute now turns into a nightmare, should the new job be on the other side.
I suppose the smart move would be to just find areas we'd like to buy and rent their first to make sure we like it. Then hope an opportunity shows up down the road.
If prices go up, wealthier people just occupy the homes. Unless there's vacant inventory sitting around (which there basically never is in the metro areas we are thinking of here) it's entirely a matter of demand. Too many people, not enough housing. Basically high prices aren't a problem for someone buying the house, they are just a problem for you buying the house.
In summary, build more housing where people want to live.
We'll see. If post pandemic see's businesses pulling out of large cities due to the cost, wishful thinking would be the government stepping in and mandating cost controlled 2b/2b 1000-1500sqft condos.
I don't see DMV prices going down ever barring say, nuclear war annihilates DC and nobody decides to rebuild the capital there because it's a radioactive hellscape. I've owned my townhome for almost four years and it's gained like 15% value in that amount of time. There are always going to be people here due to government jobs and the various military bases means there's always demand year round as people get transferred and stuff. I'm looking at buying a new house now due to the rates and there's just zero supply right now.
Hell, prices where I grew up (Frederick County, VA area) are also fucking nuts since I graduated and that's an hour and a half away from the city. It's not really the middle of nowhere but it's adjacent to it. I imagine housing in most metro areas is similar, but the major industries in DC are all government related whether it's the actual bureaucracy, lobbyists, or contractors. It's just not going anywhere. The large businesses can't leave, they need to do their business here, these big defense contractors will need offices here, the lobbyists need to be here. The cost is not super relevant. It'd be like trying to move your mining operation from the mine to somewhere that's cheaper and easier. That's all great but you need the actual fucking mine.
Yeah I've heard pretty similar from folks here. It makes sense. What I'm struggling with isn't that there are jobs here, but the how much they are paying compared to the cost of housing inflation due to low interest rates. If you use that rule of "don't spend more the 30%" of your monthly salary on housing and using a higher end GS pay scale of GS-13, that's roughly $1,500 a month. With interest rates today, that's around $330,000-ish. There's not a lot you can get for that, and that's on the higher end of the Fed payscale. For military, just looking online it seems a Major General rank is similar in pay (2 steps below General).
Now I'm sure there are plenty of lobbyists, lawyers, executives, doctors, etc that make well above a GS-13 payscale. Also if your SO has a good job as well that can push you into the bottom of what is showing up. I'm just concerned that there aren't that many folks making that payscale or above for most homes to be starting in the $650K range and that folks are going way over the 30% rule for home buying. And what will the repercussions be of that?
First, I don't know many people that are home buyers with one income, so that's going to at least double the amount of monthly payment you have to throw at it. Second, there's a decent amount of super rich people around here but it feels like everything is growing at an accelerating rate around here. There are a ton of people who bought reasonably priced things in Vienna, Dunn Loring, Falls Church, etc decades ago that are now worth a crazy amount of money purely on the value of the land. If you drive around those towns, parts of Arlington and Alexandria, you'll find a ton of neighborhoods with reasonable/modest looking houses and every few driveways you'll find a giant behemoth that dwarfs the neighbors. This entire area is going to look way different in a couple decades once all the people who bought here in the 80s start dying off and people buy up all that land to redevelop it.
Yeah I was just doing some quick math late at night. If you have a spouse, you'll have more income. That said, even if they are another GS-13, that puts in the $650K range, which is doable, but plenty of townhomes and houses going for more than that as well. I'm not as familiar with VA, mostly looking in MD or DC itself, but I know with the Silver Line to Dulles expansion, prices seem to be skyrocketing over there as well. If work travel wasn't an issue, I'd 100% be looking at Reston or further out to try and jump on some lower prices before the perk of the silver line drives costs even higher.
Though it's funny, looking in northern Maryland and noticed someone was selling a townhome where we were looking to buy. They are selling after 1 year and listed it back in September. It's still listed as what started as 40K over what they paid, is now $13K under what they paid. It's certainly giving me pause on townhomes though. Houses barely last a week, but I've started seeing more townhomes that have been on the market for a decent time. Playing into my worst fear about nightmare neighbors.
Knowing your neighbors? What are you, old? Neighbors are people you awkwardly wave at when they happen to be outside when you're returning home. I currently live in a townhome, it's not bad at all, but I do have an end unit so that reduces neighbor interactions. Another important factor with regards to your monthly is how much you put down. Like I said, we're looking to move, and having built up some equity in the place and the profit off the sale will let us put more down on the next one.
I'm not sure about MD/DC, but yeah, if you're looking for a decent stand alone house, it's going to be spendy. Like that part of the American dream (house with decent yard available) is kind of a joke in this area unless you're able to spend 800k+ on a house. We're kind of on the borderline of bigger townhouse/small house depending on exactly where. Part of me is leaning towards get more house because it's going to crazy increase in value but then I remember it's really just not that liquid and if I toss the money into an index fund I'll probably be just as well off in the end.
Mostly a trust thing. We've had 0 issues in our apartment but we've also heard horror stories. Issues with dogs seems to be the most common.
The other thing that sucks if I remember right, you used to be able to claim up to $1 million on your taxes. Trump changed that to $750K now last I heard.
If you ever wanted a good example of how detached the market is from reality, and whyTesla continues to be so wildly overvalued, see exhibit A. Reddit's Wall Street Bets sub is pumping Game Stop's stock price because of a conspiracy theory that controlling interests are trying to keep Gamestop's stock down.
This craziness all seems to stem from an "activist" investor Ryan Cohen who has been sucking up GME shares and pushing this idea that Gamestop can become the new Radioshack. The whole thing stinks of a pump and dump to me, with someone conning the WSB sub to go on a crusade, but what do I know?
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OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
If you ever wanted a good example of how detached the market is from reality, and whyTesla continues to be so wildly overvalued, see exhibit A. Reddit's Wall Street Bets sub is pumping Game Stop's stock price because of a conspiracy theory that controlling interests are trying to keep Gamestop's stock down.
This craziness all seems to stem from an "activist" investor Ryan Cohen who has been sucking up GME shares and pushing this idea that Gamestop can become the new Radioshack. The whole thing stinks of a pump and dump to me, with someone conning the WSB sub to go on a crusade, but what do I know?
If you ever wanted a good example of how detached the market is from reality, and whyTesla continues to be so wildly overvalued, see exhibit A. Reddit's Wall Street Bets sub is pumping Game Stop's stock price because of a conspiracy theory that controlling interests are trying to keep Gamestop's stock down.
This craziness all seems to stem from an "activist" investor Ryan Cohen who has been sucking up GME shares and pushing this idea that Gamestop can become the new Radioshack. The whole thing stinks of a pump and dump to me, with someone conning the WSB sub to go on a crusade, but what do I know?
"New Radioshack"
So, tries to reinvent itself, fails, flames out and spirals slowly down to a company-destroying crash? Seems about right.
If you ever wanted a good example of how detached the market is from reality, and whyTesla continues to be so wildly overvalued, see exhibit A. Reddit's Wall Street Bets sub is pumping Game Stop's stock price because of a conspiracy theory that controlling interests are trying to keep Gamestop's stock down.
This craziness all seems to stem from an "activist" investor Ryan Cohen who has been sucking up GME shares and pushing this idea that Gamestop can become the new Radioshack. The whole thing stinks of a pump and dump to me, with someone conning the WSB sub to go on a crusade, but what do I know?
WSB has been used like this for years now, they're a fantastic group to scam. There was a whole year they were super into shipping companies that were perpetually going bankrupt. It's pure chaos but there is a lot of interesting information if you can stand to filter through it.
If you ever wanted a good example of how detached the market is from reality, and whyTesla continues to be so wildly overvalued, see exhibit A. Reddit's Wall Street Bets sub is pumping Game Stop's stock price because of a conspiracy theory that controlling interests are trying to keep Gamestop's stock down.
This craziness all seems to stem from an "activist" investor Ryan Cohen who has been sucking up GME shares and pushing this idea that Gamestop can become the new Radioshack. The whole thing stinks of a pump and dump to me, with someone conning the WSB sub to go on a crusade, but what do I know?
"New Radioshack"
So, tries to reinvent itself, fails, flames out and spirals slowly down to a company-destroying crash? Seems about right.
It's literally the same idea, but more centered on PC builders, yeah. Read some of the comments in that WSB thread and a lot of those posters sound like maga chuds in political threads - same type of fantastical, it's us vs. them delusions and self flagellation.
I think Radioshack was ultimately on to something at the end, but it was just too late. And even if they had managed to convert their store spaces to be more maker-centric, the verdict is still out on if they were ever going to be able to make money doing it. Frankly..the kind of clientele Gamestop caters to is not really the PC builder type in the first place.
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OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
I'm skeptical of the idea that there's a large enough clientele for stores on every corner to succeed selling to makers. The makers are likely to just buy all their shit online, and it all takes space to store, other than a chest filled with resistors and capacitors. Digikey has next day shipping and a damn near infinite warehouse. It's hard to compete with that.
And converting Gamestop to PC builder? Again, you run into the space issue, even aside from that I'm not going to Gamestop to buy a CPU and motherboard combo. Fry's is out of business; it's just MicroCenter left in that space AFAIK, so it's not like there's a lot of money to be had servicing that market in-person as opposed to by internet/mail-order.
Gamestop sells a whole lot of things you don't need to buy in person. Every PS5 is the same. You don't need to look at them to make sure they will match your space like a TV or something. It's doomed.
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ChaosHatHop, hop, hop, HA!Trick of the lightRegistered Userregular
edited January 2021
I mean, Micro Center is wildly popular among the PC enthusiast crowd. I kind of wonder why an updated version of that with 3D printers and other enthusiast/maker shit isn't more popular. I feel like if you could put 3D printers in the public eye more and just have demos going of what they can do you would sell more of that shit. It's very cool but still kind of under the radar.
I live near a Micro Center and it's great, although the whole thing could use a facelift. Maybe like a Home Depot for nerds.
I'm skeptical of the idea that there's a large enough clientele for stores on every corner to succeed selling to makers. The makers are likely to just buy all their shit online, and it all takes space to store, other than a chest filled with resistors and capacitors. Digikey has next day shipping and a damn near infinite warehouse. It's hard to compete with that.
And converting Gamestop to PC builder? Again, you run into the space issue, even aside from that I'm not going to Gamestop to buy a CPU and motherboard combo. Fry's is out of business; it's just MicroCenter left in that space AFAIK, so it's not like there's a lot of money to be had servicing that market in-person as opposed to by internet/mail-order.
tl;dr: Gamestop is fucked yo
And has been for a long time. There's youtuber out there that posts recorded leadership calls from Gamestop, and at this point they are basically hawking whatever cheap shit (like sanitizer) they can find, and are all in on pushing constant pre-orders on any customer dumb enough to walk through the door. They push hard sell tactics on their floor team and treat those team members in ways a cut rate call center owner would be jealous of. They're clearly dying. They're not going to convert to the PC builder market space, because converting would cut off their access to the only things still making them any money.
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ChaosHatHop, hop, hop, HA!Trick of the lightRegistered Userregular
I can't remember the last time I purchased something from Gamestop. They were nice when I was broke and in college/high school and I needed to turn over my games to help get new ones, but I don't anymore, and I learned back then I usually regretted not having them later. For that reason (and also because having to change out physical media is for old people) I'm basically all digital.
They should try to totally reinvent themselves because what other option do they have? Might as well throw a hail mary. But I agree they'll probably just whimper out and they'll all become Mattress Firms or something soon.
I think there is a market for more maker spaces in cities. Let me rent a workshop for a day or something.
But that's not Gamestop, hell I'm surprised they haven't dropped the inevitable gamercoin pivot yet.
The problem is that maker spaces are incredibly expensive to run, as the equipment outlay is often astronomical. To do it in a box store format you'd almost have to build out the maker facilities first, with all the classes and training, and then the retail portion as secondary to that. Maker spaces only ever seem to work as a co-op affair where everybody's invested in trying to make the place work, but I agree that there is probably a place for someone to make a successful chain of them, especially as the box store retail space continues to die. How many empty old ass K marts are sitting in the run down outskirts of your city right now? Probably at least one.
Funny thing, I read a story back in the 80s that predicted much of this - the empty/dying malls (some converted to other uses), everything going online - but assumed we'd still be using text interfaces. Green or white text on black CRTs...
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L Ron HowardThe duckMinnesotaRegistered Userregular
I think there is a market for more maker spaces in cities. Let me rent a workshop for a day or something.
But that's not Gamestop, hell I'm surprised they haven't dropped the inevitable gamercoin pivot yet.
I think there's a very tiny market for it.
I had a friend who was doing it, paid a monthly fee and all that for the maker space. It sounded like there was no real business for it, and it was only busy on weekends.
Like places that rent out garage space with lifts to work on your cars. It almost exclusively gets business on weekends, and there's never enough space for that demand because people don't want to do that work during the work week if they can help it.
I also realize that the majority of the customers are going to be the middle class with 9-5s.
I've bought a few things from Gamestop but it's always for the pre-order items. I got FF7r from them for the Shinra employee card and I got RE2remake for something. I also turned in a bunch of my old consoles like my 360 and PS3 which got me some money, which was better than paying someone for electronics recycling.
There is probably a way for Gamestop to live as a company, I just don't think their leadership is competent enough to do that. Lowering store count and turning them into more entertainment + store might be an idea. A lot of folks can't afford high end VR, so offering 30 minute slots for folks to come in and rent a room with a VR headset might work.
The reason maker stuff isn't more widespread is the same reason a lot of things that are kind of pricey for what is effectively a hobby are not widespread: wage stagnation. If more people had more fun money lying around that wasn't a shield against emergencies or illness, there'd be a lot more demand for a lot of things. Which would spin up to better economic growth. Not just 3D printers, either. Kitchen gadgets, high end sound systems, woodworking, a lot of random tech stuff, drones, &c. would be a lot more prevalent and get the benefits of scale. It's not like people are less inclined to putzing with stuff than our grandparents. We just can't afford to blow $hundreds on what is effectively just a way to enjoy the spare time that we also don't have.
Funny thing, I read a story back in the 80s that predicted much of this - the empty/dying malls (some converted to other uses), everything going online - but assumed we'd still be using text interfaces. Green or white text on black CRTs...
They probably didn't predict that most retail that died, did so to either predatory shareholders or their own stupidity. Not market forces.
The reason maker stuff isn't more widespread is the same reason a lot of things that are kind of pricey for what is effectively a hobby are not widespread: wage stagnation. If more people had more fun money lying around that wasn't a shield against emergencies or illness, there'd be a lot more demand for a lot of things. Which would spin up to better economic growth. Not just 3D printers, either. Kitchen gadgets, high end sound systems, woodworking, a lot of random tech stuff, drones, &c. would be a lot more prevalent and get the benefits of scale. It's not like people are less inclined to putzing with stuff than our grandparents. We just can't afford to blow $hundreds on what is effectively just a way to enjoy the spare time that we also don't have.
It's the same thing you can see when they talk about how this or that sport or hobby (golf being a popular one for these kind of stories) is dying. There's a lot of thinkpieces about how it's cultural or people are too busy now or something but a lot of the time economists are just like "the younger generation just doesn't have enough money for it".
Funny thing, I read a story back in the 80s that predicted much of this - the empty/dying malls (some converted to other uses), everything going online - but assumed we'd still be using text interfaces. Green or white text on black CRTs...
They probably didn't predict that most retail that died, did so to either predatory shareholders or their own stupidity. Not market forces.
As I understand it the situation in the 80s re: shareholder power was very different from how it is now, so yeah, they probably didn't see that coming.
The reason maker stuff isn't more widespread is the same reason a lot of things that are kind of pricey for what is effectively a hobby are not widespread: wage stagnation. If more people had more fun money lying around that wasn't a shield against emergencies or illness, there'd be a lot more demand for a lot of things. Which would spin up to better economic growth. Not just 3D printers, either. Kitchen gadgets, high end sound systems, woodworking, a lot of random tech stuff, drones, &c. would be a lot more prevalent and get the benefits of scale. It's not like people are less inclined to putzing with stuff than our grandparents. We just can't afford to blow $hundreds on what is effectively just a way to enjoy the spare time that we also don't have.
It's the same thing you can when they talk about how this or that sport or hobby (golf being a popular one for these kind of stories) is dying. There's a lot of thinkpieces about how it's cultural or people are too busy now or something but a lot of the time economists are just like "the younger generation just doesn't have enough money for it".
Definitely what's killing skiing and snow boarding.
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I ZimbraWorst song, played on ugliest guitarRegistered Userregular
The reason maker stuff isn't more widespread is the same reason a lot of things that are kind of pricey for what is effectively a hobby are not widespread: wage stagnation. If more people had more fun money lying around that wasn't a shield against emergencies or illness, there'd be a lot more demand for a lot of things. Which would spin up to better economic growth. Not just 3D printers, either. Kitchen gadgets, high end sound systems, woodworking, a lot of random tech stuff, drones, &c. would be a lot more prevalent and get the benefits of scale. It's not like people are less inclined to putzing with stuff than our grandparents. We just can't afford to blow $hundreds on what is effectively just a way to enjoy the spare time that we also don't have.
It's the same thing you can when they talk about how this or that sport or hobby (golf being a popular one for these kind of stories) is dying. There's a lot of thinkpieces about how it's cultural or people are too busy now or something but a lot of the time economists are just like "the younger generation just doesn't have enough money for it".
The decline of golf has a lot to do with municipalities closing public courses, which were the only access most people had to the sport.
I think golf should have to be played in native topatary. It would really spice up the game in terms of handicaps and difficulty while also lowering the environmental impact.
The reason maker stuff isn't more widespread is the same reason a lot of things that are kind of pricey for what is effectively a hobby are not widespread: wage stagnation. If more people had more fun money lying around that wasn't a shield against emergencies or illness, there'd be a lot more demand for a lot of things. Which would spin up to better economic growth. Not just 3D printers, either. Kitchen gadgets, high end sound systems, woodworking, a lot of random tech stuff, drones, &c. would be a lot more prevalent and get the benefits of scale. It's not like people are less inclined to putzing with stuff than our grandparents. We just can't afford to blow $hundreds on what is effectively just a way to enjoy the spare time that we also don't have.
It's the same thing you can when they talk about how this or that sport or hobby (golf being a popular one for these kind of stories) is dying. There's a lot of thinkpieces about how it's cultural or people are too busy now or something but a lot of the time economists are just like "the younger generation just doesn't have enough money for it".
The decline of golf has a lot to do with municipalities closing public courses, which were the only access most people had to the sport.
And why disc golf is thriving. There are usually multiple free public disc golf courses in any decently sized city in the states, and you can grab a couple of discs for under $50, which is all you need to play.
If you ever wanted a good example of how detached the market is from reality, and whyTesla continues to be so wildly overvalued, see exhibit A. Reddit's Wall Street Bets sub is pumping Game Stop's stock price because of a conspiracy theory that controlling interests are trying to keep Gamestop's stock down.
This craziness all seems to stem from an "activist" investor Ryan Cohen who has been sucking up GME shares and pushing this idea that Gamestop can become the new Radioshack. The whole thing stinks of a pump and dump to me, with someone conning the WSB sub to go on a crusade, but what do I know?
It's a self-directed pump and dump. The short interest is higher than the available amount of shares - it's practically a given that there will be a short squeeze at some point. A few people have tried to calculate when the short squeeze will happen based on fees and option premiums and a lot are saying that this week is the trigger point. What WSB is doing is purposely attempting to buy up as many GME shares as possible in order to squeeze the short sellers even harder - essentially forcing shorts to buy up ever-rising shares to cover their positions. As the shorts keep covering, the share price keeps rising, and more and more short positions are forced to cover.
GME may very well (and likely will) crash and burn, but a lot of short sellers are going to have their positions burned before it's all over.
If you ever wanted a good example of how detached the market is from reality, and whyTesla continues to be so wildly overvalued, see exhibit A. Reddit's Wall Street Bets sub is pumping Game Stop's stock price because of a conspiracy theory that controlling interests are trying to keep Gamestop's stock down.
This craziness all seems to stem from an "activist" investor Ryan Cohen who has been sucking up GME shares and pushing this idea that Gamestop can become the new Radioshack. The whole thing stinks of a pump and dump to me, with someone conning the WSB sub to go on a crusade, but what do I know?
It's a self-directed pump and dump. The short interest is higher than the available amount of shares - it's practically a given that there will be a short squeeze at some point. A few people have tried to calculate when the short squeeze will happen based on fees and option premiums and a lot are saying that this week is the trigger point. What WSB is doing is purposely attempting to buy up as many GME shares as possible in order to squeeze the short sellers even harder - essentially forcing shorts to buy up ever-rising shares to cover their positions.
Yeah, it's definitely a crusade against Citron. Gonna be fascinating watching the fallout.
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Eh, it'll probably be a slow de-escalation. The main damage with those is already done (reduction in USA diplomatic capabilities/soft power).
Also, they need to happen with the drop of retaliatory tariffs. Which means having a staffed State and Commerce Department to actually talk to people. So first we need to, you know, do that.
These next few months are just going to be... so much.
Yeah I've heard pretty similar from folks here. It makes sense. What I'm struggling with isn't that there are jobs here, but the how much they are paying compared to the cost of housing inflation due to low interest rates. If you use that rule of "don't spend more the 30%" of your monthly salary on housing and using a higher end GS pay scale of GS-13, that's roughly $1,500 a month. With interest rates today, that's around $330,000-ish. There's not a lot you can get for that, and that's on the higher end of the Fed payscale. For military, just looking online it seems a Major General rank is similar in pay (2 steps below General).
Now I'm sure there are plenty of lobbyists, lawyers, executives, doctors, etc that make well above a GS-13 payscale. Also if your SO has a good job as well that can push you into the bottom of what is showing up. I'm just concerned that there aren't that many folks making that payscale or above for most homes to be starting in the $650K range and that folks are going way over the 30% rule for home buying. And what will the repercussions be of that?
Are you using the base GS scale there? Because literally no one makes that. There's always location pay, and sometimes it's a lot.
This is DC:
https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/salaries-wages/salary-tables/21Tables/html/DCB.aspx
A lowest level GS 13 makes 103690, which puts 30% monthly at 2592.25
The fact that GSA/OPM already does this shows how relatively easy it would be to have a variable rate Federal minimum wage if Republicans actually believed their complaint about its impact on small towns, rather than just used it as an excuse to do nothing.
I'm almost positive that when I first moved out on my own, which admittedly was was over two decades ago, the rule was don't spend more than 20%(ish) of your income on housing.
Which kinda tells me something all by itself.
First, I don't know many people that are home buyers with one income, so that's going to at least double the amount of monthly payment you have to throw at it. Second, there's a decent amount of super rich people around here but it feels like everything is growing at an accelerating rate around here. There are a ton of people who bought reasonably priced things in Vienna, Dunn Loring, Falls Church, etc decades ago that are now worth a crazy amount of money purely on the value of the land. If you drive around those towns, parts of Arlington and Alexandria, you'll find a ton of neighborhoods with reasonable/modest looking houses and every few driveways you'll find a giant behemoth that dwarfs the neighbors. This entire area is going to look way different in a couple decades once all the people who bought here in the 80s start dying off and people buy up all that land to redevelop it.
Yeah I was just doing some quick math late at night. If you have a spouse, you'll have more income. That said, even if they are another GS-13, that puts in the $650K range, which is doable, but plenty of townhomes and houses going for more than that as well. I'm not as familiar with VA, mostly looking in MD or DC itself, but I know with the Silver Line to Dulles expansion, prices seem to be skyrocketing over there as well. If work travel wasn't an issue, I'd 100% be looking at Reston or further out to try and jump on some lower prices before the perk of the silver line drives costs even higher.
Though it's funny, looking in northern Maryland and noticed someone was selling a townhome where we were looking to buy. They are selling after 1 year and listed it back in September. It's still listed as what started as 40K over what they paid, is now $13K under what they paid. It's certainly giving me pause on townhomes though. Houses barely last a week, but I've started seeing more townhomes that have been on the market for a decent time. Playing into my worst fear about nightmare neighbors.
I was using post tax GS 13 from someone that is in that position and what they relayed to me. My math could easily be a bit off though. I never understood the idea of 30% pre-tax, seemed way too high.
Knowing your neighbors? What are you, old? Neighbors are people you awkwardly wave at when they happen to be outside when you're returning home. I currently live in a townhome, it's not bad at all, but I do have an end unit so that reduces neighbor interactions. Another important factor with regards to your monthly is how much you put down. Like I said, we're looking to move, and having built up some equity in the place and the profit off the sale will let us put more down on the next one.
I'm not sure about MD/DC, but yeah, if you're looking for a decent stand alone house, it's going to be spendy. Like that part of the American dream (house with decent yard available) is kind of a joke in this area unless you're able to spend 800k+ on a house. We're kind of on the borderline of bigger townhouse/small house depending on exactly where. Part of me is leaning towards get more house because it's going to crazy increase in value but then I remember it's really just not that liquid and if I toss the money into an index fund I'll probably be just as well off in the end.
Mostly a trust thing. We've had 0 issues in our apartment but we've also heard horror stories. Issues with dogs seems to be the most common.
The other thing that sucks if I remember right, you used to be able to claim up to $1 million on your taxes. Trump changed that to $750K now last I heard.
This craziness all seems to stem from an "activist" investor Ryan Cohen who has been sucking up GME shares and pushing this idea that Gamestop can become the new Radioshack. The whole thing stinks of a pump and dump to me, with someone conning the WSB sub to go on a crusade, but what do I know?
But Gamestop can become the new Radioshack
Like legit
I don't see how they have long term viability
"New Radioshack"
So, tries to reinvent itself, fails, flames out and spirals slowly down to a company-destroying crash? Seems about right.
WSB has been used like this for years now, they're a fantastic group to scam. There was a whole year they were super into shipping companies that were perpetually going bankrupt. It's pure chaos but there is a lot of interesting information if you can stand to filter through it.
Wait
It's literally the same idea, but more centered on PC builders, yeah. Read some of the comments in that WSB thread and a lot of those posters sound like maga chuds in political threads - same type of fantastical, it's us vs. them delusions and self flagellation.
I think Radioshack was ultimately on to something at the end, but it was just too late. And even if they had managed to convert their store spaces to be more maker-centric, the verdict is still out on if they were ever going to be able to make money doing it. Frankly..the kind of clientele Gamestop caters to is not really the PC builder type in the first place.
And converting Gamestop to PC builder? Again, you run into the space issue, even aside from that I'm not going to Gamestop to buy a CPU and motherboard combo. Fry's is out of business; it's just MicroCenter left in that space AFAIK, so it's not like there's a lot of money to be had servicing that market in-person as opposed to by internet/mail-order.
tl;dr: Gamestop is fucked yo
I live near a Micro Center and it's great, although the whole thing could use a facelift. Maybe like a Home Depot for nerds.
But that's not Gamestop, hell I'm surprised they haven't dropped the inevitable gamercoin pivot yet.
And has been for a long time. There's youtuber out there that posts recorded leadership calls from Gamestop, and at this point they are basically hawking whatever cheap shit (like sanitizer) they can find, and are all in on pushing constant pre-orders on any customer dumb enough to walk through the door. They push hard sell tactics on their floor team and treat those team members in ways a cut rate call center owner would be jealous of. They're clearly dying. They're not going to convert to the PC builder market space, because converting would cut off their access to the only things still making them any money.
They should try to totally reinvent themselves because what other option do they have? Might as well throw a hail mary. But I agree they'll probably just whimper out and they'll all become Mattress Firms or something soon.
The problem is that maker spaces are incredibly expensive to run, as the equipment outlay is often astronomical. To do it in a box store format you'd almost have to build out the maker facilities first, with all the classes and training, and then the retail portion as secondary to that. Maker spaces only ever seem to work as a co-op affair where everybody's invested in trying to make the place work, but I agree that there is probably a place for someone to make a successful chain of them, especially as the box store retail space continues to die. How many empty old ass K marts are sitting in the run down outskirts of your city right now? Probably at least one.
I think there's a very tiny market for it.
I had a friend who was doing it, paid a monthly fee and all that for the maker space. It sounded like there was no real business for it, and it was only busy on weekends.
Like places that rent out garage space with lifts to work on your cars. It almost exclusively gets business on weekends, and there's never enough space for that demand because people don't want to do that work during the work week if they can help it.
I also realize that the majority of the customers are going to be the middle class with 9-5s.
There is probably a way for Gamestop to live as a company, I just don't think their leadership is competent enough to do that. Lowering store count and turning them into more entertainment + store might be an idea. A lot of folks can't afford high end VR, so offering 30 minute slots for folks to come in and rent a room with a VR headset might work.
They probably didn't predict that most retail that died, did so to either predatory shareholders or their own stupidity. Not market forces.
It's the same thing you can see when they talk about how this or that sport or hobby (golf being a popular one for these kind of stories) is dying. There's a lot of thinkpieces about how it's cultural or people are too busy now or something but a lot of the time economists are just like "the younger generation just doesn't have enough money for it".
As I understand it the situation in the 80s re: shareholder power was very different from how it is now, so yeah, they probably didn't see that coming.
Definitely what's killing skiing and snow boarding.
The decline of golf has a lot to do with municipalities closing public courses, which were the only access most people had to the sport.
And why disc golf is thriving. There are usually multiple free public disc golf courses in any decently sized city in the states, and you can grab a couple of discs for under $50, which is all you need to play.
It's a self-directed pump and dump. The short interest is higher than the available amount of shares - it's practically a given that there will be a short squeeze at some point. A few people have tried to calculate when the short squeeze will happen based on fees and option premiums and a lot are saying that this week is the trigger point. What WSB is doing is purposely attempting to buy up as many GME shares as possible in order to squeeze the short sellers even harder - essentially forcing shorts to buy up ever-rising shares to cover their positions. As the shorts keep covering, the share price keeps rising, and more and more short positions are forced to cover.
GME may very well (and likely will) crash and burn, but a lot of short sellers are going to have their positions burned before it's all over.
Yeah, it's definitely a crusade against Citron. Gonna be fascinating watching the fallout.