“Everybody”: Nobody or very few people
Quote Tweet
There were, of course, tons of reports saying nobody should assume that
It will never stop being infuriating that these fuckin idiots get to be in charge of fuckin everything.
I'm honestly mystified that they can get on camera say, say these things and not be immediately met with overwheming derision and scorn.
"Motherfucker the only person who was saying it would go away with hotter weather was your fucktard boss who knows less about biology then he does about how to manage a casino, and now you're trying to insist that this was a bio-weapon? Just how related were your parents before they had you?"
I've seen a number of anecdotal stories about these "long haulers" who are sick for months, but have not seen any studies or hard data about the prevalence of that happening. I'm assuming since there hasn't been a lot in the news about it, it must not have been studied and / or be quite rare. Anyone have any hard info about it?
There's not a lot of hard data on this that I've been able to find, but there are currently support groups for these long-term symptoms that have a decent number of members.
When I first became sick with Covid-19 on March 13, my symptoms matched the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) description of the disease. I was not surprised to test positive when I was admitted to Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City on March 17.
In the weeks that followed, however, my illness began to morph. I developed a host of new symptoms, from severe sinus pain to rashes and hives, that weren’t yet being widely acknowledged. My recovery dragged on for more than seven weeks. In the absence of public health information that could explain or validate my experience, I connected with other Covid-19 survivors and started the Body Politic Covid-19 support group for people living with the virus.
As the group grew to thousands of members from around the world, it became clear that others were desperate for information to understand their experience. In the absence of comprehensive, up-to-date information from health authorities, the support group has allowed people living with or recovering from the disease to discuss lesser-known symptoms, crowdsource best practices from health authorities around the world, and arm against medical bias that affects marginalized populations.
I think it's unfortunately still way too early to have any definitive data for long term recovery prospects. Hell, we're still trying to understand short term infection data at this point.
The medical system is so crushed with the immediate issues related to COVID, I don't think there's much room for the long-term symptoms to take up many resources.
Crowdsourcing non-specific symptoms to internet support groups is also a terrible idea. It's how you get weird shit like the far-reaching manifestations of "chronic lyme disease" that have little if any connection to a medical basis. Recovery from any severe illness can be a long, slow, debilitating process of overcoming deconditioning and healing from associated injuries. There are tons of secondary effects from any life-threatening illness, and definite subsets of disease-specific sequelae that will take time to work out methodically. But when you have any condition affecting millions of people at a time, huge proportions of them are also going to continue to experience other, unrelated ailments. Literally millions of people will recover from COVID only experience excruciating, temporarily-debilitating toe stubbing in the following months. Doesn't mean COVID leads to a statistically significant increase in risk of toe stubbing. But you will absolutely have enough overlapping incidence to fill an online support group of COVID/toe-stub sufferers.
...Chronic Lyme disease isn't real? O_O
Seriously, I grew up in southeastern PA. If you go outside to play in tall grass or around trees you have to check for ticks when you get inside. I knew a few people who found them after a day of play, but none actually contracted the disease at the time. As an adult I met a number of people who said they had chronic Lyme disease. I never looked it up because.. I don't know, I wasn't interested, I guess. I just assumed it was something that could happen. I have had this idea for like 18 years.
Lyme Disease is absolutely a real thing, but my understanding is that the science doesn't support the existence of a lot of the chronic knock-on effects people report as being associated with it post-recovery. (Edit: Or rather, they may exist, but may not be associated with having had Lyme Disease.)
OremLK on
My zombie survival life simulator They Don't Sleep is out now on Steam if you want to check it out.
“Everybody”: Nobody or very few people
Quote Tweet
There were, of course, tons of reports saying nobody should assume that
It will never stop being infuriating that these fuckin idiots get to be in charge of fuckin everything.
I'm honestly mystified that they can get on camera say, say these things and not be immediately met with overwheming derision and scorn.
"Motherfucker the only person who was saying it would go away with hotter weather was your fucktard boss who knows less about biology then he does about how to manage a casino, and now you're trying to insist that this was a bio-weapon? Just how related were your parents before they had you?"
I mean, the hotter weather probably is helping a bit. But, thats only a cautionary tale to tell us how bad things could be in the winter!
Airbags help car crashes, doesn't mean you should ram a wall because you have them.
I've seen a number of anecdotal stories about these "long haulers" who are sick for months, but have not seen any studies or hard data about the prevalence of that happening. I'm assuming since there hasn't been a lot in the news about it, it must not have been studied and / or be quite rare. Anyone have any hard info about it?
There's not a lot of hard data on this that I've been able to find, but there are currently support groups for these long-term symptoms that have a decent number of members.
When I first became sick with Covid-19 on March 13, my symptoms matched the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) description of the disease. I was not surprised to test positive when I was admitted to Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City on March 17.
In the weeks that followed, however, my illness began to morph. I developed a host of new symptoms, from severe sinus pain to rashes and hives, that weren’t yet being widely acknowledged. My recovery dragged on for more than seven weeks. In the absence of public health information that could explain or validate my experience, I connected with other Covid-19 survivors and started the Body Politic Covid-19 support group for people living with the virus.
As the group grew to thousands of members from around the world, it became clear that others were desperate for information to understand their experience. In the absence of comprehensive, up-to-date information from health authorities, the support group has allowed people living with or recovering from the disease to discuss lesser-known symptoms, crowdsource best practices from health authorities around the world, and arm against medical bias that affects marginalized populations.
I think it's unfortunately still way too early to have any definitive data for long term recovery prospects. Hell, we're still trying to understand short term infection data at this point.
The medical system is so crushed with the immediate issues related to COVID, I don't think there's much room for the long-term symptoms to take up many resources.
Crowdsourcing non-specific symptoms to internet support groups is also a terrible idea. It's how you get weird shit like the far-reaching manifestations of "chronic lyme disease" that have little if any connection to a medical basis. Recovery from any severe illness can be a long, slow, debilitating process of overcoming deconditioning and healing from associated injuries. There are tons of secondary effects from any life-threatening illness, and definite subsets of disease-specific sequelae that will take time to work out methodically. But when you have any condition affecting millions of people at a time, huge proportions of them are also going to continue to experience other, unrelated ailments. Literally millions of people will recover from COVID only experience excruciating, temporarily-debilitating toe stubbing in the following months. Doesn't mean COVID leads to a statistically significant increase in risk of toe stubbing. But you will absolutely have enough overlapping incidence to fill an online support group of COVID/toe-stub sufferers.
...Chronic Lyme disease isn't real? O_O
Seriously, I grew up in southeastern PA. If you go outside to play in tall grass or around trees you have to check for ticks when you get inside. I knew a few people who found them after a day of play, but none actually contracted the disease at the time. As an adult I met a number of people who said they had chronic Lyme disease. I never looked it up because.. I don't know, I wasn't interested, I guess. I just assumed it was something that could happen. I have had this idea for like 18 years.
Chronic Lyme disease is a thing which exists, but, its nowhere near as widespread as the people who say they have chronic lyme disease. The disease can hang around and flare up again, but, in the people where it does the disease can be detected again.
Its like say, gluten intolerance. Many people have gluten intolerance. Its a real and horrible thing. But, far more people say they have it than have it to the point where people who have the real illness can't trust anyone who says their food is gluten free because that doesn't actually mean enough to people with the diagnosable condition (like, eating a gram or two of wheat for them can cause the effects for a month)
Anecdotes are anecdotes unfortunately. We are just starting to learn about this virus and how it affects the most common patients, let alone some people who may have outlier symptoms.
Re: gluten intolerance: people claiming they have it who don't are obnoxious, yeah. But honestly? If I'm paying someone for food and I say I can't eat X, they should either make sure there's no trace of X in my food, or, if they can't, say so. It doesn't matter if 99 people go, "Oh, well, it's not that big a deal." You still take the 100th person seriously.
With gluten allergies the problem is that the real condition is so overshadowed by the fake one that many people have no understanding of how the real one works. Like, for the real one you have to sterilize pans at above 350 F between using them for cooking food with gluten in it and not. Washing them usually isnt enough. People with celiac disease are sensitive to ridiculously low levels of gluten.
"That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
+2
Options
TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
I've seen a number of anecdotal stories about these "long haulers" who are sick for months, but have not seen any studies or hard data about the prevalence of that happening. I'm assuming since there hasn't been a lot in the news about it, it must not have been studied and / or be quite rare. Anyone have any hard info about it?
There's not a lot of hard data on this that I've been able to find, but there are currently support groups for these long-term symptoms that have a decent number of members.
When I first became sick with Covid-19 on March 13, my symptoms matched the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) description of the disease. I was not surprised to test positive when I was admitted to Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City on March 17.
In the weeks that followed, however, my illness began to morph. I developed a host of new symptoms, from severe sinus pain to rashes and hives, that weren’t yet being widely acknowledged. My recovery dragged on for more than seven weeks. In the absence of public health information that could explain or validate my experience, I connected with other Covid-19 survivors and started the Body Politic Covid-19 support group for people living with the virus.
As the group grew to thousands of members from around the world, it became clear that others were desperate for information to understand their experience. In the absence of comprehensive, up-to-date information from health authorities, the support group has allowed people living with or recovering from the disease to discuss lesser-known symptoms, crowdsource best practices from health authorities around the world, and arm against medical bias that affects marginalized populations.
I think it's unfortunately still way too early to have any definitive data for long term recovery prospects. Hell, we're still trying to understand short term infection data at this point.
The medical system is so crushed with the immediate issues related to COVID, I don't think there's much room for the long-term symptoms to take up many resources.
Crowdsourcing non-specific symptoms to internet support groups is also a terrible idea. It's how you get weird shit like the far-reaching manifestations of "chronic lyme disease" that have little if any connection to a medical basis. Recovery from any severe illness can be a long, slow, debilitating process of overcoming deconditioning and healing from associated injuries. There are tons of secondary effects from any life-threatening illness, and definite subsets of disease-specific sequelae that will take time to work out methodically. But when you have any condition affecting millions of people at a time, huge proportions of them are also going to continue to experience other, unrelated ailments. Literally millions of people will recover from COVID only experience excruciating, temporarily-debilitating toe stubbing in the following months. Doesn't mean COVID leads to a statistically significant increase in risk of toe stubbing. But you will absolutely have enough overlapping incidence to fill an online support group of COVID/toe-stub sufferers.
...Chronic Lyme disease isn't real? O_O
Seriously, I grew up in southeastern PA. If you go outside to play in tall grass or around trees you have to check for ticks when you get inside. I knew a few people who found them after a day of play, but none actually contracted the disease at the time. As an adult I met a number of people who said they had chronic Lyme disease. I never looked it up because.. I don't know, I wasn't interested, I guess. I just assumed it was something that could happen. I have had this idea for like 18 years.
Chronic Lyme disease is a thing which exists, but, its nowhere near as widespread as the people who say they have chronic lyme disease. The disease can hang around and flare up again, but, in the people where it does the disease can be detected again.
Its like say, gluten intolerance. Many people have gluten intolerance. Its a real and horrible thing. But, far more people say they have it than have it to the point where people who have the real illness can't trust anyone who says their food is gluten free because that doesn't actually mean enough to people with the diagnosable condition (like, eating a gram or two of wheat for them can cause the effects for a month)
Anecdotes are anecdotes unfortunately. We are just starting to learn about this virus and how it affects the most common patients, let alone some people who may have outlier symptoms.
Re: gluten intolerance: people claiming they have it who don't are obnoxious, yeah. But honestly? If I'm paying someone for food and I say I can't eat X, they should either make sure there's no trace of X in my food, or, if they can't, say so. It doesn't matter if 99 people go, "Oh, well, it's not that big a deal." You still take the 100th person seriously.
Last year I got a wicked case of food poisoning from... I still don't know where. It knocked me on my backside for a week solid. I literally couldn't keep food down for multiple days, and I was so weak from that experience that it took a long time before I was back on my feet. After I had gotten through that and could eat again, I wound up having MASSIVE GI issues. At least once a month my body would just evacuate itself without reason. I talked to the doctor about it multiple times, had bloodwork done, had multiple checkups. Everything came back 100% fine, but I was still spending what felt like half my waking life in the bathroom emptying every part of my GI tract very frequently.
So my doctor said "Don't eat Gluten". And I thought he was fucking crazy, because I've been eating bread my whole life without having an issue.
But I was desperate, so I tried it out for a month. And for some reason I felt great. And now whenever I catch gluten, I have a real issue with my GI tract. But I'm not gluten intolerant at all - They have a test for that, and I didn't come up on it in the least. Still, there's some degree of sensitivity there, I guess. It's not a binary thing.
I still feel like an abject and utter asshole whenever I ask anyone for a gluten free option, though.
I've seen a number of anecdotal stories about these "long haulers" who are sick for months, but have not seen any studies or hard data about the prevalence of that happening. I'm assuming since there hasn't been a lot in the news about it, it must not have been studied and / or be quite rare. Anyone have any hard info about it?
There's not a lot of hard data on this that I've been able to find, but there are currently support groups for these long-term symptoms that have a decent number of members.
When I first became sick with Covid-19 on March 13, my symptoms matched the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) description of the disease. I was not surprised to test positive when I was admitted to Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City on March 17.
In the weeks that followed, however, my illness began to morph. I developed a host of new symptoms, from severe sinus pain to rashes and hives, that weren’t yet being widely acknowledged. My recovery dragged on for more than seven weeks. In the absence of public health information that could explain or validate my experience, I connected with other Covid-19 survivors and started the Body Politic Covid-19 support group for people living with the virus.
As the group grew to thousands of members from around the world, it became clear that others were desperate for information to understand their experience. In the absence of comprehensive, up-to-date information from health authorities, the support group has allowed people living with or recovering from the disease to discuss lesser-known symptoms, crowdsource best practices from health authorities around the world, and arm against medical bias that affects marginalized populations.
I think it's unfortunately still way too early to have any definitive data for long term recovery prospects. Hell, we're still trying to understand short term infection data at this point.
The medical system is so crushed with the immediate issues related to COVID, I don't think there's much room for the long-term symptoms to take up many resources.
Crowdsourcing non-specific symptoms to internet support groups is also a terrible idea. It's how you get weird shit like the far-reaching manifestations of "chronic lyme disease" that have little if any connection to a medical basis. Recovery from any severe illness can be a long, slow, debilitating process of overcoming deconditioning and healing from associated injuries. There are tons of secondary effects from any life-threatening illness, and definite subsets of disease-specific sequelae that will take time to work out methodically. But when you have any condition affecting millions of people at a time, huge proportions of them are also going to continue to experience other, unrelated ailments. Literally millions of people will recover from COVID only experience excruciating, temporarily-debilitating toe stubbing in the following months. Doesn't mean COVID leads to a statistically significant increase in risk of toe stubbing. But you will absolutely have enough overlapping incidence to fill an online support group of COVID/toe-stub sufferers.
...Chronic Lyme disease isn't real? O_O
Seriously, I grew up in southeastern PA. If you go outside to play in tall grass or around trees you have to check for ticks when you get inside. I knew a few people who found them after a day of play, but none actually contracted the disease at the time. As an adult I met a number of people who said they had chronic Lyme disease. I never looked it up because.. I don't know, I wasn't interested, I guess. I just assumed it was something that could happen. I have had this idea for like 18 years.
Chronic Lyme disease is a thing which exists, but, its nowhere near as widespread as the people who say they have chronic lyme disease. The disease can hang around and flare up again, but, in the people where it does the disease can be detected again.
Its like say, gluten intolerance. Many people have gluten intolerance. Its a real and horrible thing. But, far more people say they have it than have it to the point where people who have the real illness can't trust anyone who says their food is gluten free because that doesn't actually mean enough to people with the diagnosable condition (like, eating a gram or two of wheat for them can cause the effects for a month)
Anecdotes are anecdotes unfortunately. We are just starting to learn about this virus and how it affects the most common patients, let alone some people who may have outlier symptoms.
Re: gluten intolerance: people claiming they have it who don't are obnoxious, yeah. But honestly? If I'm paying someone for food and I say I can't eat X, they should either make sure there's no trace of X in my food, or, if they can't, say so. It doesn't matter if 99 people go, "Oh, well, it's not that big a deal." You still take the 100th person seriously.
Last year I got a wicked case of food poisoning from... I still don't know where. It knocked me on my backside for a week solid. I literally couldn't keep food down for multiple days, and I was so weak from that experience that it took a long time before I was back on my feet. After I had gotten through that and could eat again, I wound up having MASSIVE GI issues. At least once a month my body would just evacuate itself without reason. I talked to the doctor about it multiple times, had bloodwork done, had multiple checkups. Everything came back 100% fine, but I was still spending what felt like half my waking life in the bathroom emptying every part of my GI tract very frequently.
So my doctor said "Don't eat Gluten". And I thought he was fucking crazy, because I've been eating bread my whole life without having an issue.
But I was desperate, so I tried it out for a month. And for some reason I felt great. And now whenever I catch gluten, I have a real issue with my GI tract. But I'm not gluten intolerant at all - They have a test for that, and I didn't come up on it in the least. Still, there's some degree of sensitivity there, I guess. It's not a binary thing.
I still feel like an abject and utter asshole whenever I ask anyone for a gluten free option, though.
I know a kid with sensory processing difficulties whose issues get a lot worse if he eats gluten. He's not diagnosed with celiac either. Bodies are weird, and guts especially so.
I also know a guy who has no issues with gluten, but thought he did for years because he was having weird GI issues and celiac disease runs in his family.
“Everybody”: Nobody or very few people
Quote Tweet
There were, of course, tons of reports saying nobody should assume that
It will never stop being infuriating that these fuckin idiots get to be in charge of fuckin everything.
I'm honestly mystified that they can get on camera say, say these things and not be immediately met with overwheming derision and scorn.
"Motherfucker the only person who was saying it would go away with hotter weather was your fucktard boss who knows less about biology then he does about how to manage a casino, and now you're trying to insist that this was a bio-weapon? Just how related were your parents before they had you?"
I mean, the hotter weather probably is helping a bit. But, thats only a cautionary tale to tell us how bad things could be in the winter!
Airbags help car crashes, doesn't mean you should ram a wall because you have them.
Given that the virus was doing just fine in warmer climates like singapore back in febuary and march there was zero reason to suspect that america would be granted a reprieve in the summer, particularly not when people tend to congregate in the summer and thus increase the likelihood of transmission.
“Everybody”: Nobody or very few people
Quote Tweet
There were, of course, tons of reports saying nobody should assume that
It will never stop being infuriating that these fuckin idiots get to be in charge of fuckin everything.
I'm honestly mystified that they can get on camera say, say these things and not be immediately met with overwheming derision and scorn.
"Motherfucker the only person who was saying it would go away with hotter weather was your fucktard boss who knows less about biology then he does about how to manage a casino, and now you're trying to insist that this was a bio-weapon? Just how related were your parents before they had you?"
I mean, the hotter weather probably is helping a bit. But, thats only a cautionary tale to tell us how bad things could be in the winter!
Airbags help car crashes, doesn't mean you should ram a wall because you have them.
Given that the virus was doing just fine in warmer climates like singapore back in febuary and march there was zero reason to suspect that america would be granted a reprieve in the summer, particularly not when people tend to congregate in the summer and thus increase the likelihood of transmission.
Or move inside, because their area is uncomfortably and/or uninhabitably hot at that time of year.
+12
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TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
An interesting thread discussing the implications of Simpson's paradox with regard to the current statistics people are discussing. Short story: Why are death rates decreasing? Because people are lumping data together when they shouldn't be.
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread:
If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.
Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.
For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you cone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.
This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.
The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. I'm a doctor, a scientist, a tech founder, a husband, and a father. I'm simply sad that it's come to this. Stay safe.
The idea that this isn't ONE outbreak, but multiple localized outbreaks, does make sense. Treating the data as aggregate leads to some problems with conclusions.
“Everybody”: Nobody or very few people
Quote Tweet
There were, of course, tons of reports saying nobody should assume that
It will never stop being infuriating that these fuckin idiots get to be in charge of fuckin everything.
I'm honestly mystified that they can get on camera say, say these things and not be immediately met with overwheming derision and scorn.
"Motherfucker the only person who was saying it would go away with hotter weather was your fucktard boss who knows less about biology then he does about how to manage a casino, and now you're trying to insist that this was a bio-weapon? Just how related were your parents before they had you?"
I mean, the hotter weather probably is helping a bit. But, thats only a cautionary tale to tell us how bad things could be in the winter!
Airbags help car crashes, doesn't mean you should ram a wall because you have them.
Given that the virus was doing just fine in warmer climates like singapore back in febuary and march there was zero reason to suspect that america would be granted a reprieve in the summer, particularly not when people tend to congregate in the summer and thus increase the likelihood of transmission.
Whoa, whoa, they don't have our "world's greatest healthcare system" that we have gone through great lengths to fortify since the outbreak by *checks notes* selling a handful of expired PPE to some hospitals at quintuple markup, so obviously we should expect a different result here!
Clearly it's a secret Chinese weapon! Murica!
Pellaeon on
+3
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JeanHeartbroken papa bearGatineau, QuébecRegistered Userregular
Québec is the most affected province in Canada, by far, by the pandemic. We have 55,682 total cases as of July 3.
USA have as many cases in a single day as we do in 4 months.
That.. blows my mind.
"You won't destroy us, You won't destroy our democracy. We are a small but proud nation. No one can bomb us to silence. No one can scare us from being Norway. This evening and tonight, we'll take care of each other. That's what we do best when attacked'' - Jens Stoltenberg
An interesting thread discussing the implications of Simpson's paradox with regard to the current statistics people are discussing. Short story: Why are death rates decreasing? Because people are lumping data together when they shouldn't be.
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread:
If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.
Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.
For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you cone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.
This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.
The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. I'm a doctor, a scientist, a tech founder, a husband, and a father. I'm simply sad that it's come to this. Stay safe.
The idea that this isn't ONE outbreak, but multiple localized outbreaks, does make sense. Treating the data as aggregate leads to some problems with conclusions.
FL's and TX's deaths haven't been increasing though. They're flat, and if anything, are better than they were in mid-May. The only state I can find where deaths are definitely increasing is AZ.
Maybe the next few weeks will change that trend. We'll see.
An interesting thread discussing the implications of Simpson's paradox with regard to the current statistics people are discussing. Short story: Why are death rates decreasing? Because people are lumping data together when they shouldn't be.
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread:
If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.
Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.
For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you cone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.
This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.
The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. I'm a doctor, a scientist, a tech founder, a husband, and a father. I'm simply sad that it's come to this. Stay safe.
The idea that this isn't ONE outbreak, but multiple localized outbreaks, does make sense. Treating the data as aggregate leads to some problems with conclusions.
FL's and TX's deaths haven't been increasing though. They're flat, and if anything, are better than they were in mid-May. The only state I can find where deaths are definitely increasing is AZ.
Maybe the next few weeks will change that trend. We'll see.
There's nothing clever about it. The people getting positive results now are younger than they were in March, and more people are being tested. Deaths will begin to rise notably once this wave of infectious people infects older people (which has already happened, but we are still lagging)
An interesting thread discussing the implications of Simpson's paradox with regard to the current statistics people are discussing. Short story: Why are death rates decreasing? Because people are lumping data together when they shouldn't be.
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread:
If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.
Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.
For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you cone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.
This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.
The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. I'm a doctor, a scientist, a tech founder, a husband, and a father. I'm simply sad that it's come to this. Stay safe.
The idea that this isn't ONE outbreak, but multiple localized outbreaks, does make sense. Treating the data as aggregate leads to some problems with conclusions.
FL's and TX's deaths haven't been increasing though. They're flat, and if anything, are better than they were in mid-May. The only state I can find where deaths are definitely increasing is AZ.
Maybe the next few weeks will change that trend. We'll see.
The last couple days in Texas it looks like we are beginning to see the death rate spike. However, it is still too early to say if it is the beginning of the expected trend, or merely a statistical outlier. (If I were a betting man, I'd definitely bet on the former... unfortunately.)
My zombie survival life simulator They Don't Sleep is out now on Steam if you want to check it out.
I find the idea of this virus being a weapon targeted against the US darkly hilarious, because it's a 'weapon' that only works to the extent that it has if you can take for granted that we'll react like a pack of morons, as we have.
Also remember that this peak is nowhere near as big as the previous peak yet either. It is bigger in some places, but on a national level its probably still 5x smaller so far.
"That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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ElldrenIs a woman dammitceterum censeoRegistered Userregular
Also remember that this peak is nowhere near as big as the previous peak yet either. It is bigger in some places, but on a national level its probably still 5x smaller so far.
This is blatantly false
We passed the previous peak growth two fucking weeks ago
fuck gendered marketing
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ceresWhen the last moon is cast over the last star of morningAnd the future has past without even a last desperate warningRegistered User, Moderatormod
An interesting thread discussing the implications of Simpson's paradox with regard to the current statistics people are discussing. Short story: Why are death rates decreasing? Because people are lumping data together when they shouldn't be.
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread:
If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
There's some truth to these conclusions. Yes, more young people than old are getting it (for now). Yes, we have gotten better at treating it (a little). Yes, we are testing more people and finding more cases (somewhat). None of these conclusions explain the effect.
Here's the truth. The COVID-19 outbreak, is not ONE outbreak spread evenly across the US. It is MANY outbreaks spread unevenly. You need to look at state data, or better, county data to really understand what's going on.
For instance, take AZ and TX. Cases AND deaths have both been increasing for weeks. FL looks similar (except their data sucks, so it's hard to analyze precisely). If you cone in on Miami and Houston, it's much worse.
This is the heart of Simpson's paradox. If you pool data without regard to the underlying causality, you'll get erroneous results.
The truth is simple, and horrifying. We are about to have dozens of NYCs around the country. The next 8 weeks are going to brutal, no matter what we do. ICUs overflowing, ventilators rationed, hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Unfortunately, the virus is still here and we've failed to manage it with mis-step after mis-step since the beginning. I have no agenda. I'm a doctor, a scientist, a tech founder, a husband, and a father. I'm simply sad that it's come to this. Stay safe.
The idea that this isn't ONE outbreak, but multiple localized outbreaks, does make sense. Treating the data as aggregate leads to some problems with conclusions.
It has to be localized outbreaks, every state and even some counties within those states have treated this completely differently. Looking at national numbers has never made sense to me for the same reason that a linear graph for comparison has (so far) been meaningless if it has New York on it.
ceres on
And it seems like all is dying, and would leave the world to mourn
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OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
Look at Sacramento compared to San Francisco, Orange County to Santa Barbara, Seattle to Yakima. It is transparently multiple localized outbreaks which then spread to adjoining localities where efforts either keep it suppressed or allow it to blossom.
I finished designing, printing, and posting the poster!
Honestly, Portland is already doing pretty great - almost everyone around me was wearing a mask, as I sweated my way around the entire West Side hunting down wooden telephone poles, also in a mask - but given the holiday, and the rising numbers state-wide, it still felt important to remind people. One guy even asked me for a poster to take back to his own neighborhood, lol! Tomorrow - East Side gets the same treatment!
If anyone wants the mock-up for this - I uh, don't have a good one (I had to do some...shenanigans... to get it off my work computer) but, I am happy to give you the text/font/tell you how I put it together! I kind of learned how to put together a civic retro-style poster from scratch this week over a series of lunch breaks. You never know what life will give you the opportunity to do!
A larger point - there's no way we can possibly prevent the pain - overwhelming amounts of it - from hitting our country now. 2020 is going to be a dark, miserable year. But we also don't have to exclusively sit in our homes alone and afraid, either. I wore a mask the entire time I was creating and posting these, washed my hands frequently, and don't feel that I put myself at any more risk than taking the MAX to work daily, as I already do. And I can't even tell you what it is doing for my mental health, to know that I made a real effort at an important time to help out the city I love so much. My family supported me - my husband watched the kid, my dad gave me his staple gun. I don't know what's next, but the more people wear masks, the more restaurants can stay open with outdoor seating, the more businesses can get back to normal hours, the more our city can bear up under the continuing protests... it all adds up.
I've believed for some time that Americans have been trained to be consumers, not citizens, and that eventually that might come back to bite us. Hello, my past self, we are in that moment now! Civilization is carried forward by people who do things (who have the space to do things, on a lot of levels) for the greater good without needing to be paid for them. And people who are constantly involved with their own governance notice immediately when things are going awry. We haven't done a lot of "civic" things in our lives, have we? I include myself in this. And how many of us have paid much attention to - say - our city's budget?
I don't know how this will be fixed - I can't even begin to lay out a roadmap. But I think it has to be. I feel that until a majority of us are able, are willing, to work actively on our own societies, the distance we may yet fall is almost incomprehensible.
But! I saw a little thing I could do and I did it. And maybe some of you could too! There are more options than what we see in the media - more than what we were taught in school. We'll all need to be a bit creative and crafty to get through the next decade, I suspect. That might all need to be expended on survival, of course. But if you find yourself with a little extra? Be safe, above all, but also keep it in mind
Also remember that this peak is nowhere near as big as the previous peak yet either. It is bigger in some places, but on a national level its probably still 5x smaller so far.
This is blatantly false
We passed the previous peak growth two fucking weeks ago
The previous peak number of deaths in the US was 2200-2300 per day for 9 consecutive days. This means that about 7-14 days BEFORE that happened for 9 days, at least 230,000 people per day were infected. 7 day before the peak began on the 16th, 1775 people died. Meaning at least 170,000 people were infected 7-14 days before that. The actual death rate is in the region of 1%. There are many many sources which can confirm this. I have reported them many times. The best is the Italian medical personnel data, page 12 of this pdf
Where we see that 87/29211 medical personnel who were infected died. Now, medical personnel under represent those over 70 clearly, and may be healthier than average but this is sufficient data to confirm a death rate in the 1% range.
The growth of hospitalizations was also faster in early April than it is now, and at the time, the test positivity rate in New York, who was only running 20k tests a day, was above 50%.
This is not to say we will not soon exceed the previous peak, however, it is not the case that this peak is currently bigger than the previous one. It soon will be I'm sure, but, if we took swift action now we could damp this one down and I have absolute confidence it would be a less significant peak of deaths than the previous one. We won't, and hundreds of thousands more will die, but thats not because we have already waited too long. You can't just look at the number of positive tests and say, "This is more cases than before!" or "This is less cases than before!".
Just got word that the owner is possibly infected with COVID. His kids have apparently been playing with some other kids who's mother was asymptomatic but tested positive.
We're closed until Wednesday. I really don't want to go to work period.
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OrcaAlso known as EspressosaurusWrexRegistered Userregular
This is not to say we will not soon exceed the previous peak, however, it is not the case that this peak is currently bigger than the previous one. It soon will be I'm sure, but, if we took swift action now we could damp this one down and I have absolute confidence it would be a less significant peak of deaths than the previous one. We won't, and hundreds of thousands more will die, but thats not because we have already waited too long. You can't just look at the number of positive tests and say, "This is more cases than before!" or "This is less cases than before!".
This is not to say we will not soon exceed the previous peak, however, it is not the case that this peak is currently bigger than the previous one. It soon will be I'm sure, but, if we took swift action now we could damp this one down and I have absolute confidence it would be a less significant peak of deaths than the previous one. We won't, and hundreds of thousands more will die, but thats not because we have already waited too long. You can't just look at the number of positive tests and say, "This is more cases than before!" or "This is less cases than before!".
... you want to run that by us again?
During the last peak of viral activity in the US, the states could run less than 100k tests a day (2 weeks before the peak in deaths). The number of deaths show that there were more infections than there were tests to detect them for weeks at a time, and as such, the number of detected infections is an utterly useless metric. It means something, but it doesn't mean the same thing day to day. The number of deaths per day is a more useful metric, but even that has its challenges.
I'm wondering if anyone here can shed some light on this: there are multiple reports now on Facebook of restaurants in Morgan Hill, CA getting visited today by ABC agents being told that they are required to shut down the outdoor dining per Gov. Newsom's orders. Except:
- The pictures shared by Siam Thai Restaurant show two un-uniformed white guys with open-carry sidearms.
- Multiple restaurants have said when they asked for proof that they were ABC agents, they "grew antagonistic" and left.
- Newsom did not shut down outdoor dining
Some people are saying there was miscommunication between the offices. Some people are saying the two men aren't actually ABC agents but right-wing... (what? i can't even think of the right term here) trying to get businesses and people more on the side of defying shelter-in-place restrictions by forcing restaurants to shutdown and blaming it on the governor.
Throw in the fact that they are two very white looking dudes and so far every restaurant that has stated on Facebook that they received a visit from these people have been minority-owned businesses, and I'm now not even sure what thread I should be posting this in!? WTF?
Can anybody shed some light on this? My attempts at finding other sources have failed...
"Let's take a look at the scores! The girls are at the square root of Pi, while the boys are still at a crudely drawn picture of a duck. Clearly, it's anybody's game!"
It's always fun seeing people go up to a store see the sign saying they need to wear a mask to enter and then pull one out of their purse or go back to their car to get one. Just wear the fucking mask from the start.
It's going to be around and we'll just have to live with it until the very day Biden takes over in January. Then all of a sudden it will be these two things simultaneously:
1. a towering national emergency that incompetent doddering Biden has totally failed to stop
2. an insignificant sniffle that isn't worth the tyrannical freedom-destroying measures Biden is implementing to stop
I really expect that's the core of their current strategy: they've tried nothing and are all out of ideas, so it's time to accept that unless the virus really does miraculously disappear, their guy is going to lose reelection so they better run out the clock and avoid as much blame as possible until 1/20/2021. Then they can relax and blame Biden for everything that goes wrong.
This is not to say we will not soon exceed the previous peak, however, it is not the case that this peak is currently bigger than the previous one. It soon will be I'm sure, but, if we took swift action now we could damp this one down and I have absolute confidence it would be a less significant peak of deaths than the previous one. We won't, and hundreds of thousands more will die, but thats not because we have already waited too long. You can't just look at the number of positive tests and say, "This is more cases than before!" or "This is less cases than before!".
... you want to run that by us again?
During the last peak of viral activity in the US, the states could run less than 100k tests a day (2 weeks before the peak in deaths). The number of deaths show that there were more infections than there were tests to detect them for weeks at a time, and as such, the number of detected infections is an utterly useless metric. It means something, but it doesn't mean the same thing day to day. The number of deaths per day is a more useful metric, but even that has its challenges.
Yeah, I believe half the states still aren't following the CDC's guidelines for reporting deaths, which are supposed to list probable cases. NYC did, so their mortality rates are going to look higher, the rest of the country just has some strange uptick of "viral pneumonia." We may as well be Russia for how useful our numbers are, which is to say it's mostly garbage. But I think you're right that the first "wave" was still larger than the current one, we just didn't have adequate testing in March (and still don't.)
I'm wondering if anyone here can shed some light on this: there are multiple reports now on Facebook of restaurants in Morgan Hill, CA getting visited today by ABC agents being told that they are required to shut down the outdoor dining per Gov. Newsom's orders. Except:
- The pictures shared by Siam Thai Restaurant show two un-uniformed white guys with open-carry sidearms.
- Multiple restaurants have said when they asked for proof that they were ABC agents, they "grew antagonistic" and left.
- Newsom did not shut down outdoor dining
Some people are saying there was miscommunication between the offices. Some people are saying the two men aren't actually ABC agents but right-wing... (what? i can't even think of the right term here) trying to get businesses and people more on the side of defying shelter-in-place restrictions by forcing restaurants to shutdown and blaming it on the governor.
Throw in the fact that they are two very white looking dudes and so far every restaurant that has stated on Facebook that they received a visit from these people have been minority-owned businesses, and I'm now not even sure what thread I should be posting this in!? WTF?
Can anybody shed some light on this? My attempts at finding other sources have failed...
It could be any number of things, but I'd focus on the data points from credible reports, not "oh yeah they came to my place too..." until those are verified.
The most likely cause is, of course, probably some rando alt-right shitheels trying to stir up shit.
Here (i.e. in Switzerland), numbers have been rising again over the last week or two, so from Monday onwards everyone has to wear a mask in public transport. I thought I'd give it a try today already, to see what it's like, and it's definitely not particularly comfortable, but it's absolutely bearable. There were also about twice as many people wearing masks today than there were a week ago. Which made it all the weirder when on my way home a guy (about 30, normal-looking) came into the bus and started a tirade about how sometimes civil disobedience is called for and how can people wonder about Germany and the Third Reich when people so quickly give up their freedoms. I'm curious to see how things will go from Monday onwards and whether there'll be many disruptive asshats.
Having said that, it doesn't help that at the beginning of the situation, the main government person responsible for the political response to COVID-19 kept insisting that masks weren't necessary and that they'd be much less useful than people might think. I suspect that narrative was partly pushed because Switzerland simply didn't have enough masks, but since the Swiss response was largely good to very good, that particular aspect sounded as convincing as everything else. Getting people to believe the opposite of what they'd been told at this point can't be easy.
"Nothing is gonna save us forever but a lot of things can save us today." - Night in the Woods
Defiant asshole infects other defiant assholes who go on to potentially infect innocent people, story of Covid neverending. Comedian negligent dipshit Bryan Callen recently posted on Instagram that he contracted Covid after a three-day performance in the Laugh Out Loud comedy club in San Antonio.
Mind this isn't merely negligence but willfull defiance, having previously sent a tweet telling the Mayor of LA to kiss his ass for requesting people wear face masks.
Meanwhile Will Sasso reinforces why he's one of my favorite comedians beyond his legendary MadTV tenure.
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HenroidMexican kicked from Immigration ThreadCentrism is Racism :3Registered Userregular
The tweet below is just one of many sources but uh, a Trump campaign manager has tested positive for COVID-19. What makes her stand out is that she's Jr's girlfriend.
We live in a world where it is possible Jr will be told by his shitty father to break up with her because she will urge people to take the disease seriously, countering the messaging of the campaign.
“Everybody”: Nobody or very few people
Quote Tweet
There were, of course, tons of reports saying nobody should assume that
It will never stop being infuriating that these fuckin idiots get to be in charge of fuckin everything.
I'm honestly mystified that they can get on camera say, say these things and not be immediately met with overwheming derision and scorn.
"Motherfucker the only person who was saying it would go away with hotter weather was your fucktard boss who knows less about biology then he does about how to manage a casino, and now you're trying to insist that this was a bio-weapon? Just how related were your parents before they had you?"
I mean, the hotter weather probably is helping a bit. But, thats only a cautionary tale to tell us how bad things could be in the winter!
Airbags help car crashes, doesn't mean you should ram a wall because you have them.
Given that the virus was doing just fine in warmer climates like singapore back in febuary and march there was zero reason to suspect that america would be granted a reprieve in the summer, particularly not when people tend to congregate in the summer and thus increase the likelihood of transmission.
I think the “warmer weather” is also somewhat correlated with “more people generally do things outdoors” which is what actually helps reduce the spread of this a bit. If it’s too hot, people will tend to be inside more where their AC is which tends to limit this effect.
I'm honestly mystified that they can get on camera say, say these things and not be immediately met with overwheming derision and scorn.
"Motherfucker the only person who was saying it would go away with hotter weather was your fucktard boss who knows less about biology then he does about how to manage a casino, and now you're trying to insist that this was a bio-weapon? Just how related were your parents before they had you?"
I've been screaming this since, like, March? Manaus, Brazil, in the middle of the Amazon rain forest, three degrees of latitude off the equator, whose two seasons are "tropically hot and wet" and "tropically hot and so much wetter that the Amazon turns into a lake" has been lining up bodies in mass graves for months. They don't have such a thing as "winter" there and transmission didn't stop at all. Guayquil, Ecuador, also just off the Equator, whose two seasons are "hot and dry" and "hot and wet" had bodies piling up on sidewalks. The only thing that could make people think that "oh it'll magically go away in summer" when faced with these two obvious major counterexamples is willful ignorance, which the US and especially the Trump regime is chockful of.
Posts
I'm honestly mystified that they can get on camera say, say these things and not be immediately met with overwheming derision and scorn.
"Motherfucker the only person who was saying it would go away with hotter weather was your fucktard boss who knows less about biology then he does about how to manage a casino, and now you're trying to insist that this was a bio-weapon? Just how related were your parents before they had you?"
Lyme Disease is absolutely a real thing, but my understanding is that the science doesn't support the existence of a lot of the chronic knock-on effects people report as being associated with it post-recovery. (Edit: Or rather, they may exist, but may not be associated with having had Lyme Disease.)
I mean, the hotter weather probably is helping a bit. But, thats only a cautionary tale to tell us how bad things could be in the winter!
Airbags help car crashes, doesn't mean you should ram a wall because you have them.
With gluten allergies the problem is that the real condition is so overshadowed by the fake one that many people have no understanding of how the real one works. Like, for the real one you have to sterilize pans at above 350 F between using them for cooking food with gluten in it and not. Washing them usually isnt enough. People with celiac disease are sensitive to ridiculously low levels of gluten.
Last year I got a wicked case of food poisoning from... I still don't know where. It knocked me on my backside for a week solid. I literally couldn't keep food down for multiple days, and I was so weak from that experience that it took a long time before I was back on my feet. After I had gotten through that and could eat again, I wound up having MASSIVE GI issues. At least once a month my body would just evacuate itself without reason. I talked to the doctor about it multiple times, had bloodwork done, had multiple checkups. Everything came back 100% fine, but I was still spending what felt like half my waking life in the bathroom emptying every part of my GI tract very frequently.
So my doctor said "Don't eat Gluten". And I thought he was fucking crazy, because I've been eating bread my whole life without having an issue.
But I was desperate, so I tried it out for a month. And for some reason I felt great. And now whenever I catch gluten, I have a real issue with my GI tract. But I'm not gluten intolerant at all - They have a test for that, and I didn't come up on it in the least. Still, there's some degree of sensitivity there, I guess. It's not a binary thing.
I still feel like an abject and utter asshole whenever I ask anyone for a gluten free option, though.
I know a kid with sensory processing difficulties whose issues get a lot worse if he eats gluten. He's not diagnosed with celiac either. Bodies are weird, and guts especially so.
I also know a guy who has no issues with gluten, but thought he did for years because he was having weird GI issues and celiac disease runs in his family.
Given that the virus was doing just fine in warmer climates like singapore back in febuary and march there was zero reason to suspect that america would be granted a reprieve in the summer, particularly not when people tend to congregate in the summer and thus increase the likelihood of transmission.
Or move inside, because their area is uncomfortably and/or uninhabitably hot at that time of year.
The idea that this isn't ONE outbreak, but multiple localized outbreaks, does make sense. Treating the data as aggregate leads to some problems with conclusions.
Whoa, whoa, they don't have our "world's greatest healthcare system" that we have gone through great lengths to fortify since the outbreak by *checks notes* selling a handful of expired PPE to some hospitals at quintuple markup, so obviously we should expect a different result here!
Clearly it's a secret Chinese weapon! Murica!
USA have as many cases in a single day as we do in 4 months.
That.. blows my mind.
FL's and TX's deaths haven't been increasing though. They're flat, and if anything, are better than they were in mid-May. The only state I can find where deaths are definitely increasing is AZ.
Maybe the next few weeks will change that trend. We'll see.
There's nothing clever about it. The people getting positive results now are younger than they were in March, and more people are being tested. Deaths will begin to rise notably once this wave of infectious people infects older people (which has already happened, but we are still lagging)
The last couple days in Texas it looks like we are beginning to see the death rate spike. However, it is still too early to say if it is the beginning of the expected trend, or merely a statistical outlier. (If I were a betting man, I'd definitely bet on the former... unfortunately.)
This is blatantly false
We passed the previous peak growth two fucking weeks ago
It has to be localized outbreaks, every state and even some counties within those states have treated this completely differently. Looking at national numbers has never made sense to me for the same reason that a linear graph for comparison has (so far) been meaningless if it has New York on it.
IT LIIIIIVES
I finished designing, printing, and posting the poster!
Honestly, Portland is already doing pretty great - almost everyone around me was wearing a mask, as I sweated my way around the entire West Side hunting down wooden telephone poles, also in a mask - but given the holiday, and the rising numbers state-wide, it still felt important to remind people. One guy even asked me for a poster to take back to his own neighborhood, lol! Tomorrow - East Side gets the same treatment!
If anyone wants the mock-up for this - I uh, don't have a good one (I had to do some...shenanigans... to get it off my work computer) but, I am happy to give you the text/font/tell you how I put it together! I kind of learned how to put together a civic retro-style poster from scratch this week over a series of lunch breaks. You never know what life will give you the opportunity to do!
A larger point - there's no way we can possibly prevent the pain - overwhelming amounts of it - from hitting our country now. 2020 is going to be a dark, miserable year. But we also don't have to exclusively sit in our homes alone and afraid, either. I wore a mask the entire time I was creating and posting these, washed my hands frequently, and don't feel that I put myself at any more risk than taking the MAX to work daily, as I already do. And I can't even tell you what it is doing for my mental health, to know that I made a real effort at an important time to help out the city I love so much. My family supported me - my husband watched the kid, my dad gave me his staple gun. I don't know what's next, but the more people wear masks, the more restaurants can stay open with outdoor seating, the more businesses can get back to normal hours, the more our city can bear up under the continuing protests... it all adds up.
I've believed for some time that Americans have been trained to be consumers, not citizens, and that eventually that might come back to bite us. Hello, my past self, we are in that moment now! Civilization is carried forward by people who do things (who have the space to do things, on a lot of levels) for the greater good without needing to be paid for them. And people who are constantly involved with their own governance notice immediately when things are going awry. We haven't done a lot of "civic" things in our lives, have we? I include myself in this. And how many of us have paid much attention to - say - our city's budget?
I don't know how this will be fixed - I can't even begin to lay out a roadmap. But I think it has to be. I feel that until a majority of us are able, are willing, to work actively on our own societies, the distance we may yet fall is almost incomprehensible.
But! I saw a little thing I could do and I did it. And maybe some of you could too! There are more options than what we see in the media - more than what we were taught in school. We'll all need to be a bit creative and crafty to get through the next decade, I suspect. That might all need to be expended on survival, of course. But if you find yourself with a little extra? Be safe, above all, but also keep it in mind
The previous peak number of deaths in the US was 2200-2300 per day for 9 consecutive days. This means that about 7-14 days BEFORE that happened for 9 days, at least 230,000 people per day were infected. 7 day before the peak began on the 16th, 1775 people died. Meaning at least 170,000 people were infected 7-14 days before that. The actual death rate is in the region of 1%. There are many many sources which can confirm this. I have reported them many times. The best is the Italian medical personnel data, page 12 of this pdf
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_23-giugno-2020.pdf
Where we see that 87/29211 medical personnel who were infected died. Now, medical personnel under represent those over 70 clearly, and may be healthier than average but this is sufficient data to confirm a death rate in the 1% range.
The growth of hospitalizations was also faster in early April than it is now, and at the time, the test positivity rate in New York, who was only running 20k tests a day, was above 50%.
This is not to say we will not soon exceed the previous peak, however, it is not the case that this peak is currently bigger than the previous one. It soon will be I'm sure, but, if we took swift action now we could damp this one down and I have absolute confidence it would be a less significant peak of deaths than the previous one. We won't, and hundreds of thousands more will die, but thats not because we have already waited too long. You can't just look at the number of positive tests and say, "This is more cases than before!" or "This is less cases than before!".
We're closed until Wednesday. I really don't want to go to work period.
... you want to run that by us again?
During the last peak of viral activity in the US, the states could run less than 100k tests a day (2 weeks before the peak in deaths). The number of deaths show that there were more infections than there were tests to detect them for weeks at a time, and as such, the number of detected infections is an utterly useless metric. It means something, but it doesn't mean the same thing day to day. The number of deaths per day is a more useful metric, but even that has its challenges.
- The pictures shared by Siam Thai Restaurant show two un-uniformed white guys with open-carry sidearms.
- Multiple restaurants have said when they asked for proof that they were ABC agents, they "grew antagonistic" and left.
- Newsom did not shut down outdoor dining
Some people are saying there was miscommunication between the offices. Some people are saying the two men aren't actually ABC agents but right-wing... (what? i can't even think of the right term here) trying to get businesses and people more on the side of defying shelter-in-place restrictions by forcing restaurants to shutdown and blaming it on the governor.
Throw in the fact that they are two very white looking dudes and so far every restaurant that has stated on Facebook that they received a visit from these people have been minority-owned businesses, and I'm now not even sure what thread I should be posting this in!? WTF?
Can anybody shed some light on this? My attempts at finding other sources have failed...
It's going to be around and we'll just have to live with it until the very day Biden takes over in January. Then all of a sudden it will be these two things simultaneously:
1. a towering national emergency that incompetent doddering Biden has totally failed to stop
2. an insignificant sniffle that isn't worth the tyrannical freedom-destroying measures Biden is implementing to stop
I really expect that's the core of their current strategy: they've tried nothing and are all out of ideas, so it's time to accept that unless the virus really does miraculously disappear, their guy is going to lose reelection so they better run out the clock and avoid as much blame as possible until 1/20/2021. Then they can relax and blame Biden for everything that goes wrong.
Yeah, I believe half the states still aren't following the CDC's guidelines for reporting deaths, which are supposed to list probable cases. NYC did, so their mortality rates are going to look higher, the rest of the country just has some strange uptick of "viral pneumonia." We may as well be Russia for how useful our numbers are, which is to say it's mostly garbage. But I think you're right that the first "wave" was still larger than the current one, we just didn't have adequate testing in March (and still don't.)
It could be any number of things, but I'd focus on the data points from credible reports, not "oh yeah they came to my place too..." until those are verified.
The most likely cause is, of course, probably some rando alt-right shitheels trying to stir up shit.
Edit: and it doesn’t matter if some proportion of those assumptions are borne out.
Having said that, it doesn't help that at the beginning of the situation, the main government person responsible for the political response to COVID-19 kept insisting that masks weren't necessary and that they'd be much less useful than people might think. I suspect that narrative was partly pushed because Switzerland simply didn't have enough masks, but since the Swiss response was largely good to very good, that particular aspect sounded as convincing as everything else. Getting people to believe the opposite of what they'd been told at this point can't be easy.
"Nothing is gonna save us forever but a lot of things can save us today." - Night in the Woods
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/07/03/comedians-bryan-callen-brendan-schaub-test-positive-for-covid-19-after-san-antonio-show/
Mind this isn't merely negligence but willfull defiance, having previously sent a tweet telling the Mayor of LA to kiss his ass for requesting people wear face masks.
Meanwhile Will Sasso reinforces why he's one of my favorite comedians beyond his legendary MadTV tenure.
We live in a world where it is possible Jr will be told by his shitty father to break up with her because she will urge people to take the disease seriously, countering the messaging of the campaign.
It is a State regulation, asshole!
I think the “warmer weather” is also somewhat correlated with “more people generally do things outdoors” which is what actually helps reduce the spread of this a bit. If it’s too hot, people will tend to be inside more where their AC is which tends to limit this effect.
I have 549 Rock Band Drum and 305 Pro Drum FC's
REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS REFS
I've been screaming this since, like, March? Manaus, Brazil, in the middle of the Amazon rain forest, three degrees of latitude off the equator, whose two seasons are "tropically hot and wet" and "tropically hot and so much wetter that the Amazon turns into a lake" has been lining up bodies in mass graves for months. They don't have such a thing as "winter" there and transmission didn't stop at all. Guayquil, Ecuador, also just off the Equator, whose two seasons are "hot and dry" and "hot and wet" had bodies piling up on sidewalks. The only thing that could make people think that "oh it'll magically go away in summer" when faced with these two obvious major counterexamples is willful ignorance, which the US and especially the Trump regime is chockful of.
I know this suggestion should be taken seriously, especially when it comes to formfitting masks like N95.
But I'm just seeing that scene in my mind from Tommy Boy, where David Spade's character pretending to be a flight attendant explains seatbelts.