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The Emergency Backup US [Election] 2024 thread: Part Two
Hahnsoo1
Make Ready.We Hunt.Registered User, Moderator, Administrator admin
Make Ready.We Hunt.Registered User, Moderator, Administrator admin
Here it is... your general US election thread for the year 2024. It is a critical election with two fairly unpalatable presidential candidates who should be eating tapioca pudding in a retirement home, who instead will duke it out for control of the free world with an apparently rapidly changing situation where a Crazy Old Man is going up against some sort of Dem nominee (a lot has happened). US presidential elections as of late have become a stressful and contentious time on these forums, with a lot of infighting and poor posting habits that lead to accounts being jailed and/or banned. The moderators will be watching this thread more closely than any other thread on Debate and Discourse.
Also, a lot of congressional seats and governorships will be elected this year. Feel free to discuss those, but don't be surprised if all the oxygen is sucked out of the room by the presidential election discussion. Some of these side discussions may be easier to do in the appropriate state-level political threads.
General Rules and Posting Guidelines
Most of these rules and guidelines are already standing policy in Debate and Discourse political threads, but they are being reiterated here so you have absolutely no excuse for not knowing them. Some of them are for this specific thread only. You are responsible for these rules and reading the OP (and the entire thread, for that matter) if you want to participate in this discussion.
Who Are The Candidates?
Okay. Stop. Just stop. Get out of the thread. We don't really have time to educate you if you aren't willing to put one iota of research into this topic, or you live under a rock (unlikely, since you post here). If you want to post here, don't do so from a position of ignorance of the very basic topics. For very basic information about the upcoming election (Presidential, Congressional, Gubernatorial, or other), head to Ballotpedia.
Topics to Avoid
Not infractable (EDIT: Okay, maybe a little infractable, as a treat, but we'll give you a warning by default), but generally fruitless avenues of discussion that will get a LOT of side eye from the moderators.
Thread Locks
This thread will almost inevitably get locked due to some sort of infighting or trolling or whatever. When this thread gets locked early, it will be locked for a minimum period of 24 hours (possibly longer based on mod coverage).
New Election Threads
After this thread is locked at 100 pages, the Moderators will create the next OP for the new Election thread. Don't spin up a follow up thread (unless it's about a specific off-topic subject instead of the election, of course). Repeated bad behavior or doomposting may result in thread-kicks being carried over into new Election threads.
Mods will update this OP over time as more things need to be said. We'll hopefully also announce in the thread if there are other rules/guidelines that are being added, but you are responsible for knowing the stuff in this OP.
Also, a lot of congressional seats and governorships will be elected this year. Feel free to discuss those, but don't be surprised if all the oxygen is sucked out of the room by the presidential election discussion. Some of these side discussions may be easier to do in the appropriate state-level political threads.
General Rules and Posting Guidelines
Most of these rules and guidelines are already standing policy in Debate and Discourse political threads, but they are being reiterated here so you have absolutely no excuse for not knowing them. Some of them are for this specific thread only. You are responsible for these rules and reading the OP (and the entire thread, for that matter) if you want to participate in this discussion.
- Be Kind - This is THE most stressful topic for a lot of the posters here. Now is NOT the time to deploy the snark cannon or the condescension engine or "fucking fuck FUCK", no matter how much you dislike another poster. Be gracious. Be kind. Realize that we're all stressed out here.
- Walk Away - If discussion is getting too heated or you find yourself replying to the same person over and over again in a short period of time... maybe you should talk a breather and walk away from the thread for a bit. I encourage folks, if they are getting into a fight here, to just stop posting and do something else. You don't need to win Internet points. It's not worth it.
- Stay On Topic - It's tempting to go down tangents or rabbit holes, but the election thread is bloated and difficult to read as it is. If your commentary does not pertain directly to the 2024 Election, consider making a God Damn Separate Thread.
- No memes or tweets without commentary and sourcing - If you link to a tweet or a screenshot of a tweet, copy and paste the full text of the tweet, and then source the author and why that author is important to listen to. With links being broken to tweets on a constant basis (and Twitter/X no longer working properly anymore, let alone on these forums), this is more important now than it was 4 or 8 years ago. YouTube video links (or Instagram or whatever) should also be sourced with a general synopsis of what's in the video, along with the subject or author of the video and why they are important.
- Limit your quoting and linking of an article - DO give us the source and the author and why it is important. But if you post text from the article, leave it at 3-5 paragraphs, TOPS. 1 paragraph, with relevant sentences bolded, is best. People do NOT need to read the entire article here! They can just follow your link. Give them enough to entice them to read the article, and leave it at that.
- Images should be spoilered - For best posting practices, because images take different formats on different devices, please spoiler tag your images. This includes screenshots of Tweets and Articles. We'll give SOME lee-way about this (not all pics are created equal), but in general, giant images tend to be annoying on mobile, and sometimes smaller images blow up to a large size on desktop. If you do post an image of anything, accompany that image with some commentary or opinion. If you don't have an opinion about it that you are willing to share, you shouldn't be posting it.
- This isn't a comedy standup show - This is not the place to practice your tight five or post a drive-by of a meme and leave it at that. You aren't boomers (the forum is getting old, but not THAT old)... don't just post unfunny political cartoons or a tired Anakin/Padme meme with political text. Don't post drive-by "gotchas" just to rile up the thread. Don't make snarky one-liners as replies. This kind of behavior will get you jailed or banned.
- No doomposting - Look, we get it. The last decade has been rough, and this past year has been ESPECIALLY rough. It's easy to lose hope or to give into despair. What we cannot allow you to do is to spray that all over the forums. We can't provide mental health services for you. This place cannot be the dumping ground for your trauma. Find help and assistance, or find some other social media to use instead of therapy (not recommended, but I know that's what most people do). But you can't do this here, and this will get you thread-kicked.
- No livetweeting events - What we mean by this is that it's pretty annoying to post "Wow, I can't believe he said that!" and not have any reference to who "he" was or what was actually said. If you are posting events happening in real-time at that moment, you better do a good job of identifying a news source that people can look up and the actual content of the events that are happening.
- No relitigating the 2016 Hilary Clinton vs. Donald Trump Election - Look, we know this is one of the prior elections that got us into this mess. But there's nothing we can say about this that hasn't already been repeated and flamed back and forth a hundred times in the past decade. Talk about the present, not the past.
- The use of political violence - This is a long-standing rule on the entire forums, but we cannot allow folks to endorse or imply political actions that result in violence. This includes death threats and threats of violence against public figures.
- Do not accuse other forum members of being agents of foreign powers or spies - First of all, this is technically a worldwide forum, not limited to the US. But these kind of accusations are never fruitful and only serve to blow up the thread, for some reason. I don't really think any world government has a vested interest in maintaining their propaganda on the Penny Arcade Forums.
Who Are The Candidates?
Okay. Stop. Just stop. Get out of the thread. We don't really have time to educate you if you aren't willing to put one iota of research into this topic, or you live under a rock (unlikely, since you post here). If you want to post here, don't do so from a position of ignorance of the very basic topics. For very basic information about the upcoming election (Presidential, Congressional, Gubernatorial, or other), head to Ballotpedia.
Topics to Avoid
Not infractable (EDIT: Okay, maybe a little infractable, as a treat, but we'll give you a warning by default), but generally fruitless avenues of discussion that will get a LOT of side eye from the moderators.
- The results of any individual poll - This is distinct from talking about the accuracy of a given poll result (the infamous biases that exist with phone polling, for example) or discussing the legitimacy of a poll. In general, any single poll is going to be meaningless unless context is given against other similar polls or the methodology/sample size used in the poll. "Latest CNN poll shows..." is pretty useless, and results change on an almost daily basis as part of our cursed 24 hour news cycle.
- In-depth medical discussion about dementia - I know the few of you who are health care professionals and doctors, but the rest of you have no business diagnosing someone who you've never examined with any sort of mental illness or dementia. We get it, they're old. This is a fruitless topic that leads to a lot of dumb things that laypeople say when they read WebMD.
- Palestine/Israel - This is an important topic, but take it to the MENA thread. Folks can post articles about it if it pertains directly to the US elections, but take further discussion to the MENA thread. "I'd like to talk more about this, but let's take it over to the MENA thread." - Use this line. You have permission from me.
- US Immigration policy - Again, an important topic, but take it to the existing Immigration thread. This one is a bit more lax because we're likely to see a lot of arguing about this from the candidates and the US political parties, but in-depth discussion of immigration policy should take place in the Immigration thread.
- Ukraine - In-depth discussion of what's going on in Ukraine should probably be routed to that thread.
- The philosophical principles of voting in general - We have a separate thread for that. It's a garbage fire, but it exists. Have at it over there.
- The usual Leftist vs. Liberal arguments - We know. It's a longstanding thing on these forums. As much as we all enjoy a circular firing-squad (spoiler alert: We don't), if this starts happening, that's the RIGHT time to walk away. Don't escalate. Use the report button. Post about something else. No political affiliation needs you, Joe/Jane Internet, to defend its honor or whatever. This one IS likely to lead to infractions or thread-kicks or a thread lock.
- Project 2025 - Yeah, this is the game plan given by conservative thinktanks in the US if they obtain enough power. But this is all stuff that happens AFTER the election. It's not their game plan for winning this election. There is a current thread about Project 2025, so lead discussion of Project 2025 here.
- Do not keep making the argument that Trump will be worse than Biden whoever the Dems nominate (likely Harris) - This is 100% obvious. Everyone knows this. You do not need to make this argument. Yet, it keeps getting made. If you feel compelled to say this in the thread for some reason, take a step back and actually listen to what people are saying. Especially don't keep harping about how Trump will be so much worse for the LGBTQ+ members of our forum! This has ONLY led to bloody and pointless arguments that eventually lead to thread locks. No one here is voting for Trump. Whether or not they are voting or voting for Biden the Dem nominee is their own personal dilemma and not yours. Do your political canvassing out there in the real world. Note that you can compare the candidates all that you want. But "Trump will be worse", while technically true, tends to be used as a dismissal or rebuff for criticism of Biden, and you can do better than that. Address the criticisms and arguments.
- 7/16/2024 Addedum - The Trump Rally shooting and assassination attempt - Try to avoid talking about the shooting except how it directly pertains to the Election. We plan on having a separate thread to discuss the shooting. Doomposting based on how this will bump Trump chances is not allowed in this thread, as are snarky comments about the shooting in general.
Thread Locks
This thread will almost inevitably get locked due to some sort of infighting or trolling or whatever. When this thread gets locked early, it will be locked for a minimum period of 24 hours (possibly longer based on mod coverage).
New Election Threads
After this thread is locked at 100 pages, the Moderators will create the next OP for the new Election thread. Don't spin up a follow up thread (unless it's about a specific off-topic subject instead of the election, of course). Repeated bad behavior or doomposting may result in thread-kicks being carried over into new Election threads.
Mods will update this OP over time as more things need to be said. We'll hopefully also announce in the thread if there are other rules/guidelines that are being added, but you are responsible for knowing the stuff in this OP.
Ramius on
+8
This discussion has been closed.
Posts
big telling it like it is no bullshit but with that midwestern charm that takes just enough of the edge off.
I think it is for now but it is hard to say. The bits of gum helping hold this place together are giving out.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2024-swing-state-polls-harris-trails-trump-in-arizona-georgia-michigan-pennsylvania-tied-in-wisconsin/
Still a huge undecided block in the middle there. But these are all basically margin of error differences. Except Arizona which makes Kelly even more of an important pick.
This is still the big break for a lot of it. Polarization shows most people will not give favorable ratings to the other candidate no matter what.
Also biggest thing here.
Huge margin of error so it can go either way.
They say I'm losing my mind and crazy because I talk about Hannibal Lector, but no. These are true stories. Silence of the Lambs, Hannibal Lector. He's a lovely man. Great man. Hannibal Lector. Wants to have you for dinner. True story.
Vance looking to get booked on an episode of House Hunters
What?
That is awesome! What episode! Normal? Or All Stars?
All Stars
https://ew.com/kamala-harris-rupauls-drag-race-all-stars-9-finale-8682742
Oooh that is tomorrow. (technically this was filmed last year)
i can't wait for the inevitable right wing meltdown
it's going to be sooooo good
I think it really may be as simple as Trump thinking “asylum for immigrants” means we’re going to put them in asylums.
He’s very stupid, don’t forget
Good guy, that Joe
Oh God, the Homestuckification of our elections.
I wonder if Harris will be doing any campaign events with Allred. Allred probably didn't want anything to do with Biden but might be a bit more enthusiasm with Harris. Allred is also making the border a big part of his campaign if ad buys are anything to go off.
Switch - SW-7373-3669-3011
Fuck Joe Manchin
Given how polarized everything is It kind if makes me wonder how useful any polling can be.
Unless you are getting massive sample sizes, the likely margins in votting are going to be well under the margin of errorof polls.
WI was a 0.63% margin in 2020, Georgia was 0.25%, Arizona was 0.3% PA 1.17%, MI 2.8.
I mean you are really getting into stuff like the weather day of being a swing the race type item.
Supposedly push hard for court reforms too.
I hope Grandpa Joe does his best to protect us from the christofascist government we're teetering on the edge of.
Yeah that's going to be a solid believe it when it happens
Yeah, stick a fork on it because he's done.
Doc: That's right, twenty five years into the future. I've always dreamed on seeing the future, looking beyond my years, seeing the progress of mankind. I'll also be able to see who wins the next twenty-five world series.
Yeah this is a big point that gets missed.
On top of that there are a lot of other items.
Increased mail in voting verse suppression changes from 2020. The fact it isn't a god damn pandemic anymore with lock downs.
Like Wisconsin has more access to voting in general now than I would say before hand. That can shift that state 1-2%. Michigan's gone through a lot of changes since 2020. Georgia is the inverse with more voter suppression which might shave .5% off. But increased focus and push by Black women and African Americans in general might overcome that.
If you are in the margin of error of each other its a toss up already.
When you are and you have 6-9% undecided? It tells nothing.
It's so simple and so effective. It is so brilliant and just cuts through all the stuff that "well the policy is dangerous" brings up to those who disagree.
If you try to explain to someone project 2025 is dangerous, you have to have a conversation about it and then convince them it's actually going to happen, and they go "no Trump said he wouldn't" and back and forth.
But just going "Man these guys are WEIRD right? Saying you can't vote if you don't have kids? Weirdo."
You can't argue with that! It's so good!
It's the perfect way to deal with gish galloping and he's a fucking genius
Definitely one of my favorite "oh hey where have you been hiding?" politicians that I discover by accident because of a PA thread.
If there's been systemic non-response by left-leaning folks for whatever reason (which would help explain some of the wacky cross-tabs), the results we're starting to see could indicate a shift from a nail-biter to a potential Harris blow-out.
Or, you know, the younguns really love them some Trump and women are jazzed about abortion being outlawed and we're still fucked, who knows.
Not sure if it's going to beat the Norwegians just straight out saying (if my Norwegian is correct) that "Vance had icky sex with a medium sofa".
ikke = no/negative
So it is still a huge headline saying he did NOT have sex with a sofa.
Which is hilarious in any language.
Let's play Mario Kart or something...
? I mean, it's a day that ends in y.
Steam Profile | Signature art by Alexandra 'Lexxy' Douglass
Again, it's a demonstration of LBJ's point about getting the idea of his opponent being a literal porker out - "I know it's false, but I want to see the goose deny it."
If the media wants to cover old man is old, we have a perfectly good candidate right over there for them to fill that space with.
Let's play Mario Kart or something...