- The one-time kill that the spies of Hades get is unblockable, just like the daily kill that you all will vote on.
- The spies were allowed to pick five people to kill. The other 13 were randomly chosen.
- If the staff is in the hands of someone who is killed by the vote down here, it goes to a random hoplite. If it's in the hands of someone killed by a spy of Hades, it goes to a random spy.
Shit, it just occured to me that I'm probably going to be answering all of these questions twice.
edit: Also, specials down here have no abilities personally. You're all equal, now. The abilities granted will be passive in nature, and will affect the group. If a special is reincarnated, he gets all of his abilities back on the surface, but you will lose any power that you gained while he was down here. For example, Bob the Oracle dies, comes down here, and suddenly Oracles are immune to vigilante kills. Bob gets resurrected, he gets his Oracle powers back, but now Oracles are no longer immune to vigilante kills. (Note: Not an actual power.)
ElJeffe on
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ElJeffe, I assume that we are permitted to read until the third post in Hades, right? Since DevoutlyApathetic has the second post, and you have the third? Unless that's not how you count...
Nope, DA fucked it up for you all. You were going to get to read all about the special powers, but now all you'll get to see is DA's commentary, because 2 is a sacred number.
(I'm kidding, of course.)
Well, damn, looks like our dear departed seer is worthless down there. They better kick his spirit ass.
ElJeffe, I assume that we are permitted to read until the third post in Hades, right? Since DevoutlyApathetic has the second post, and you have the third? Unless that's not how you count...
Nope, DA fucked it up for you all. You were going to get to read all about the special powers, but now all you'll get to see is DA's commentary, because 2 is a sacred number.
(I'm kidding, of course.)
Well, damn, looks like our dear departed seer is worthless down there. They better kick his spirit ass.
-edit in response to edit, well, damn again.
We should kill the other one. Maybe then we'll get special powers. (KIDDING)
Also, I really want to read Hades. But I won't, because I'm a good person.
Just stay calm, just stay calm... I can't even remember where to start to gather information. Makes me wish I was paying more attention. Anyone want to fire the first arrow off?
ON PREVIEW: Okay, so the six spies got five votes in the primary invasion. Most likely some of the more vocal members like Lady Eri. I guess it's a good thing the random pull took some of the semi-suspicious players like Farseer and DarkPrimus to help our focus? Gah, I'm still not thinking straight enough.
EDIT: Also, I hope that Ardor has the network set up by tomorrow night, 'cause that power of spies in Hades is gonna be tricky. Of course, since we have the Staff still, we can bring him back again. Maybe Ardor should give the staff to a trusted member of the network to revive him in that case?
ElJeffe, I assume that we are permitted to read until the third post in Hades, right? Since DevoutlyApathetic has the second post, and you have the third? Unless that's not how you count...
Nope, DA fucked it up for you all. You were going to get to read all about the special powers, but now all you'll get to see is DA's commentary, because 2 is a sacred number.
(I'm kidding, of course.)
Well, damn, looks like our dear departed seer is worthless down there. They better kick his spirit ass.
-edit in response to edit, well, damn again.
We should kill the other one. Maybe then we'll get special powers. (KIDDING)
Also, I really want to read Hades. But I won't, because I'm a good person.
If he'd just be a kind lord, we could go about actually analyzing if it'd be worth it. With the way things are, though, it's far too risky to waste a staking on it. Though, if a seer dies by assassination, it gives us incentive not to resurrect him.
It might be in our best interest for Ardor to pass off the staff post-haste. The fact that he'll aid the village in some way in death gives the dead spies something to think about, but it's clear he's at very high risk right now.
Way to ruin the 100% protected staff, ElJeffe. Giggling in glee on that glorious pony?
Frosteey on
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SerpentSometimes Vancouver, BC, sometimes Brisbane, QLDRegistered Userregular
edited March 2007
well... if the dead spies waste a night offing ardor, and ardor doesn't have the staff, we have it golden.
1. Perhaps the oracles will get badass powers in hades, and we still have an oracle on the surface (hidden) who gets a vision every night; or
2. Just rez ardor again.
8 of those killed by the Grecians voted for Tofu. 5 of them voted for Johannen. 2 did not vote, 1 voted for Dynagrip, 1 for Farseer, and 1 for precisionk.
The precise list:
Voted for Tofu:
Bunyip
DarkPrimus
FunkyWaltDogg
Gundam470
Lady Eri
Saburbia
Smasher
tuxkamen
Voted for Johannen:
DevoutlyApathetic
Elkamil
Locus
Plutonium
Thorgot
Tofu also voted for Johannen.
Voted for Dynagrip:
Farseer
Voted for Farseer:
Last Son
Voted for precisionk:
Nerissa
No vote:
Picardathon
TehSpectre
31 people voted for Tofu, while 15 for Johannen. 8/31 died, versus 5/15. I was trying to do a mathematical argument here, but I don't think it holds well. The larger number of people who voted for Tofu just breaks any real comparison, but you were slightly more likely to die if you voted for Johannen than if you voted for Tofu, [EDIT] which kinda doesn't make sense, since most of the kills were randomly decided [/EDIT]. This hardly implies that Johannen is a spy, but I figured I'd post it up.
I really don't have any idea how to interpret the data. I notice some trends, but they are not extremely persuasive. So I'm just going to post the dead's voting records for each night, and hopefully someone else will be able to make sense of it.
Night 1:
Ardor:
Bunyip
DevoutlyApathetic
Farseer
Funky
Gundam
Lady Eri
Last Son
Plutonium
Saburbia
TehSpectre
Thorgot
Tuxkamen
precisionk:
DarkPrimus
Elkamil
Nerissa
Farseer:
Locus
FunkyWaltDogg:
Picardathon
PsychoLarry
Smasher
Night 2:
Cass:
DevoutlyApathetic
Farseer
Funky
Gundam
Lady Eri
Picardathon
Smasher
TehSpectre
Thorgot
Tuxkamen
Johannen:
Bunyip
Last Son
Locus
Plutonium
Saburbia
visiblehowl:
DarkPrimus
Dynagrip:
Nerissa
Squashua:
Elkamil
Note that this post was written before ElJeffe clarified how the kills happened, so the data might not actually be that relevant. I previewed post and saw his explanation, but it took me a while to type this up, so dammit, you're gonna get this post and you're gonna at least tolerate it. :P
ElJeffe, I assume that we are permitted to read until the third post in Hades, right? Since DevoutlyApathetic has the second post, and you have the third? Unless that's not how you count...
Nope, DA fucked it up for you all. You were going to get to read all about the special powers, but now all you'll get to see is DA's commentary, because 2 is a sacred number.
(I'm kidding, of course.)
Well, damn, looks like our dear departed seer is worthless down there. They better kick his spirit ass.
-edit in response to edit, well, damn again.
We should kill the other one. Maybe then we'll get special powers. (KIDDING)
Also, I really want to read Hades. But I won't, because I'm a good person.
If he'd just be a kind lord, we could go about actually analyzing if it'd be worth it. With the way things are, though, it's far too risky to waste a staking on it. Though, if a seer dies by assassination, it gives us incentive not to resurrect him.
It might be in our best interest for Ardor to pass off the staff post-haste. The fact that he'll aid the village in some way in death gives the dead spies something to think about, but it's clear he's at very high risk right now.
Way to ruin the 100% protected staff, ElJeffe. Giggling in glee on that glorious pony?
I'm asking some clarification from ElJeffe, but it looks like I'm probably going to get my soul raped sideways in the near future. However, that will actually make us stronger in several ways. Those details will probably be given out at a later time or post death for me.
I'm actually quite positive how this is turning out, even with the huge amount of deaths we had.
Remember, the dead can read this thread and discuss in their own pm's and Hades thread, so we need to keep the ideas coming as much as possible. Our network will do the best we can to keep this game in our field.
Jesus, so we should expect the spies to kill 5 people a night until we reduce their numbers? I guess 5 vigilante kills is something of a consolation, but god this is going to be a bloody few days.
I was kidding about killing another oracle in hopes of getting powers. We only get one staking a night, we should use it on spies. And we should not help the spies kill an oracle.
But anyway, I think its safe to assume that tofu was the spy (why would the greeks kill one of their own?). Which, I think, puts even more suspicion on Johannen. Although he did wind up voting for Johannen in the end, this was when he was sure he would die, so we can't look at his vote for Johannen as proof of Johannen's innocence. Instead, what we know is:
a) Cass protected Johannen in the beginning.
b) Cass and Johannen were definitely linked.
c) Once the network was exposed, tofu, despite everyone else thinking Johannen was more suspicious than Dark Primus, decided to go after DarkPrimus instead of Johannen. He tried to move suspicion from Johannen onto DarkPrimus.
So we now have two spies who have gone out of their way to defend Johannen or move blame off of him. Maybe he's just one really unlucky hoplite being inadvertently linked to multiple spies, but I doubt it.
Remember, with 3 votes to be had, we've done the only thing possible to braodcast a safe hoplite to bring all specials together, and we've nailed 2 spies thanks to Lady Eri and everyone else who had a hand in it.
This is nearly ideal if you look at it that way.
3 days, 2 spies and a guaranteed network. We've given ourselves a very good shot at this. While there isn't any way we can work with the dead, we can leave them ideas.
Also, plan on me dying tonight, so if you have ideas about the remaining folks here, sending them to me will mean I will bring information down to the dead. Also consider giving information to someone you think innocent that may be joining the rest of the crew in Hades. That's about the only way we have of giving them hidden info we may keep to ourselves.
Luckily, our network had an informant end up being slaughtered in tonight's invasion who was not only confirmed, but has the information necessary to keep them from voting our specials out.
I'm happy to report that things are still very positive for us, if not a bit screwed up with the whole Hades thing and all.
Another thing I'd like to add is that the living spies have absolutely no way to know what's going down in hades as long as we have the staff. We, however, have a one-time chance to resurrect someone and have them inform the network of everything they know. So, there are three things we need to consider when deciding how to use the staff: the innocence of the target, the target's ability to pass on useful information, and the timing. I think the first two are pretty much covered, as we can be assured that either Ardor or our dead informant will be the ones we use it on. The timing is something else completely, though, do we wait as long as possible to gain as much information, or use it earlier to hopefully get more use.
At worst, we can assume they get a kill for every spy they have, making five. I suspect there'll be around three kills: something like 1 for Athan and 2 for the four remaining spies.
As mentioned before, if Ardor gets soulsnatched tomorrow night, we can resurrect him the next night. Then we'll get an insider's look into Hades, which could be VERY useful, considering the players that are down there and on our side. Just gotta keep things moving up here.
I think I'll hold off on an official vote for now, but I'm leaning with the crowd on Johannen still. We need to get an information base rolling sometime before the next vote.
The Johannen reasoning makes sense to me, particularly as Gnasty relates it. In case I don't have a chance to get on tomorrow in time, I vote to execute Johannen.
If I remember correctly, our other prime suspects were Squashua and PrecisionK, right?
I like to organize. I'm an organizer; it helps me think. I have no problem organizing in public.
The Spy
For the sake of argument, let's assume the majority (and Lady Eri) was correct and Tofu was the spy. Mostly because it's nearly impossible to analyze otherwise.
The Dead
Wow. I am really not a good judge at who should be voted off Phalla Island. I have no idea which one of those was a seer. Of the others who died, I have been negative regarding DevoutlyApathetic, Nerissa, and FarseerBaradas. Of course, Devoutly was openly mean, Nerissa made like she was saying non-facts about me, and Farseer had a sensible "you are teh spy" from TehSpectre. Who is also innocent, it seems (well, right about ONE thing).
Network
So the "network founder" DarkPrimus was also innocent, which is cool because it exhonerates my "network" involvement as DarkPrimus stated he was the one who invited me. It also shows that Smasher and Funky (both innocents) weren't lying about being asked to join the network.
The Logic Defense for Johannen
- Johannen was willing to risk Tofu being Athan to show you that he was not a spy. Sure, it was a small chance, but whatever.
- Cass, a spy, "outed" Johannen as a member of a USELESS NETWORK (which I have explained more than once how useless it was) that was partially "founded" by DarkPrimus, who was shown to be INNOCENT. Why would Cass, a spy, out Johannen if Johannen was a spy?
The Logic Against Johannen
- Johannen could have known Tofu was a spy and not Athan.
- Johannen was the one who invited Cass into "The network".
- Lady Eri mentioned that maybe Johannen and/or DarkPrimus was a spy, and DarkPrimus ended up being innocent.
I'm still not 100% convinced about Johannen, but I'm quite willing to see if he dies tonight. I will see where today's voting takes us and cast later.
The Johannen reasoning makes sense to me, particularly as Gnasty relates it. In case I don't have a chance to get on tomorrow in time, I vote to execute Johannen.
If I remember correctly, our other prime suspects were Squashua and precionk, right?
If we're going by the entire game, I believe that it's these three and visiblehowl as the only living people to see any amount of bandwagoning, as I said earlier. This last night, Johannen and Tofu were basically the only suspects.
The massacre hasn't done anything to sway my suspicion away from Johannen, and, honestly, the sheer death toll makes the whole thing convoluted enough that I'm personally not going to go through the effort of trying to find clues in the corpses of the night. If someone else can come up with something convincing, I wouldn't be against hearing it, but I think our efforts are best focused on the living right now.
With that, I !vote for Johannen, yet again.
Frosteey on
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Hi I'm Vee!Formerly VH; She/Her; Is an E X P E R I E N C ERegistered Userregular
edited March 2007
Just real quick, because I have to get back to dinner, but why are we so sure tofu was a spy?
Sure, the spies wouldn't kill one of their own. But ElJeffe said that 13 people were chosen randomly. Couldn't one of them have been a spy?
Just real quick, because I have to get back to dinner, but why are we so sure tofu was a spy?
Sure, the spies wouldn't kill one of their own. But ElJeffe said that 13 people were chosen randomly. Couldn't one of them have been a spy?
Yes, that is correct.
Unfortunately, there are not many leads (that I have), so our best bet would be to assume we were correct and carry on. I'm sure clearer heads will prevail in the morning.
As others have mentioned, he's the most likely candidate to be a spy.
But I'd also recommend keeping a close eye on PrecisionK. I suspect that he's not only a spy, he's Athan himself.
He's acting far more subdued and rational than normal. For example, look at Aroduc's game going on now, where he jumped right in to proclaim himself Emperor and wax eloquent about his "iron-fisted rule." In past games, such calmness has usually been an indicator that he's a special of some kind. He only acts crazy when he's a villager with nothing else to do.
Tofu almost certainly being a spy casts more suspicion on PrecisionK, and is what leads me to consider him as Athan. ElJeffe, Tofu, and PrecisionK were the servants in the last game. If PrecisionK was chosen to be Athan, it would be make perfect sense for him to select Tofu as an ally.
Going back to Aroduc's game, his actions there don't look good either. Imagine you're playing two Phalla games simultaneously. In one, you're effectively the leader of the monsters. Your decisions and continued survival determine the course of the entire game. In the other Phalla, you're just another villager. Wouldn't you be tempted to let the leader part carry over a little? You wouldn't outright reveal it or anything, of course, but you certainly might joke about being a despot, about crushing those who oppose you.
None of this evidence is particularly strong, which is why I am sticking with the Johannen vote. But if PrecisionK survives the next few days, we should keep him in mind.
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VariableMouth CongressStroke Me Lady FameRegistered Userregular
Remember, with 3 votes to be had, we've done the only thing possible to braodcast a safe hoplite to bring all specials together, and we've nailed 2 spies thanks to Lady Eri and everyone else who had a hand in it.
This is nearly ideal if you look at it that way.
3 days, 2 spies and a guaranteed network. We've given ourselves a very good shot at this. While there isn't any way we can work with the dead, we can leave them ideas.
Also, plan on me dying tonight, so if you have ideas about the remaining folks here, sending them to me will mean I will bring information down to the dead. Also consider giving information to someone you think innocent that may be joining the rest of the crew in Hades. That's about the only way we have of giving them hidden info we may keep to ourselves.
Luckily, our network had an informant end up being slaughtered in tonight's invasion who was not only confirmed, but has the information necessary to keep them from voting our specials out.
I'm happy to report that things are still very positive for us, if not a bit screwed up with the whole Hades thing and all.
it's literally ideal. Unless these new changes make this phalla work in a new way (that we haven't seen because we haven't experiences it) we can't have asked to be in beter shape than we are right now. except that they hit a seer (or Jeffe did)... but even that really doesn't matter much.
VariableMouth CongressStroke Me Lady FameRegistered Userregular
edited March 2007
also I have to believe that tofu was the spy, and that the spies killed our seer.
it would surprise me greatly if jeffe killed any of the specials himself. it's possible, but it just seems slightly unfair. granted, it is what it is, I'm not complaining, but unless he says otherwise I'm assuming we hit a spy and they hit a seer.
it would surprise me greatly if jeffe killed any of the specials himself. it's possible, but it just seems slightly unfair. granted, it is what it is, I'm not complaining, but unless he says otherwise I'm assuming we hit a spy and they hit a seer.
The random kills were completely random, and were selected from a list of everyone who wasn't Athan, spies included.
ElJeffe on
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I think going after that group that Cass had assembled is going to be a long effort for a single spy at best and isn't worhtwhile at this point.
I'm going to go after players playing the game very conservatively and staying under the radar as that's how most monsters in the past have played.
That being said, I'm going to !I vote for Arrbeebee at this time. He's been playing the game very conservatively and not sticking out. I've seen him play in past games. He pays attention and he is usually around more than he posts in these games. I think he has somehting to hide.
He's been throwing suspicion around on Lady Eri who helped us bag 1-2 spies and did a retraction on Tofu, whom many of us believe was the spy to have died last night.
He's also offered Johannen up for being a spy or he'd eat his foot, I think that means Johannen should be quite clear of any suspicion should RBB prove to be a spy. The evidence against Johannen right now isn't exactly damning either. He's also been good at following bandwagons to stay off track. I honestly think he's a good place to start as far as conservative players go.
I'm here right now. Basically, the schedule of this game is such that I'm not online for about ten hours before the deadline, every day. Also, I voted for tofu again shortly after the retraction.
Remember, with 3 votes to be had, we've done the only thing possible to braodcast a safe hoplite to bring all specials together, and we've nailed 2 spies thanks to Lady Eri and everyone else who had a hand in it.
This is nearly ideal if you look at it that way.
3 days, 2 spies and a guaranteed network. We've given ourselves a very good shot at this. While there isn't any way we can work with the dead, we can leave them ideas.
Also, plan on me dying tonight, so if you have ideas about the remaining folks here, sending them to me will mean I will bring information down to the dead. Also consider giving information to someone you think innocent that may be joining the rest of the crew in Hades. That's about the only way we have of giving them hidden info we may keep to ourselves.
Luckily, our network had an informant end up being slaughtered in tonight's invasion who was not only confirmed, but has the information necessary to keep them from voting our specials out.
I'm happy to report that things are still very positive for us, if not a bit screwed up with the whole Hades thing and all.
it's literally ideal. Unless these new changes make this phalla work in a new way (that we haven't seen because we haven't experiences it) we can't have asked to be in beter shape than we are right now. except that they hit a seer (or Jeffe did)... but even that really doesn't matter much.
The fact that the seers do not lose nights as long as one remains means we can stand to lose one or two. That's pretty useful and the basis I used for throwing myself out on day 1. Even if nobody would've brought me back, it would've been beneficial.
I will follow in stride with Ardor since he is now our brain, seer, and spokesperson. Unless Lady Eri was clever enough to pass her musings off to someone else?
Has anyone else noticed that there are two dead spies, and two Grecian special abilities in Hades? I'm thinking they'll probably gain one ability per spy we kill.
Has anyone else noticed that there are two dead spies, and two Grecian special abilities in Hades? I'm thinking they'll probably gain one ability per spy we kill.
Man...I'm keeping my vote on Johannen, but this just shot you way up on the suspicion meter.
Frosteey on
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VariableMouth CongressStroke Me Lady FameRegistered Userregular
it would surprise me greatly if jeffe killed any of the specials himself. it's possible, but it just seems slightly unfair. granted, it is what it is, I'm not complaining, but unless he says otherwise I'm assuming we hit a spy and they hit a seer.
The random kills were completely random, and were selected from a list of everyone who wasn't Athan, spies included.
well that's certainly fair but DAMN, doesn't help us!
Look, I don't know the status of the rez staff or where it is right now, but it is likely that the spies may use their magic death vote to off you.
So if you have the staff and someone you trust is alive and out of danger (not being bandwagoned) I'm sure it doesn't need to be said, but pass the baton.
edit I deleted my last sentence because I misinterpreted rules. IIRC, guardians cannot block the "dead spies kill a single living person" vote.
I'm hoping Lady Eri was right; either way, we're up shit's creek. With the obvious thus said, I'm going to toss out some thoughts.
-ArrBeeBee: While he may have been more active in a prior game, and thus damning him as a spy, I'm not too sure if it's a good reason to throw a vote for him right away.
-Rygar: I just noticed that in the beginning of the game, he was one of the more vocal among us. Suddenly, he shifts and he's been relatively quiet? I'd have to read through about 20 pages to be sure, but it seems a bit weird.
-Johannen: An ass to everyone since the beginning..but I'm not really sure if he is a spy.
Not going to vote yet, though..I want to wait a bit and see more reactions.
I'm gonna aim to be a bit more helpful, now that we lost more of our more active members.
Shamus on
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VariableMouth CongressStroke Me Lady FameRegistered Userregular
Has anyone else noticed that there are two dead spies, and two Grecian special abilities in Hades? I'm thinking they'll probably gain one ability per spy we kill.
Man...I'm keeping my vote on Johannen, but this just shot you way up on the suspicion meter.
I'm hoping Lady Eri was right; either way, we're up shit's creek. With the obvious thus said, I'm going to toss out some thoughts.
-ArrBeeBee: While he may have been more active in a prior game, and thus damning him as a spy, I'm not too sure if it's a good reason to throw a vote for him right away.
-Rygar: I just noticed that in the beginning of the game, he was one of the more vocal among us. Suddenly, he shifts and he's been relatively quiet? I'd have to read through about 20 pages to be sure, but it seems a bit weird.
-Johannen: An ass to everyone since the beginning..but I'm not really sure if he is a spy.
Not going to vote yet, though..I want to wait a bit and see more reactions.
I'm gonna aim to be a bit more helpful, now that we lost more of our more active members.
I had motivation to be active in the beginning, now I am just trying to avoid pissing anyone off so I don't get bandwagoned again.
Has anyone else noticed that there are two dead spies, and two Grecian special abilities in Hades? I'm thinking they'll probably gain one ability per spy we kill.
Man...I'm keeping my vote on Johannen, but this just shot you way up on the suspicion meter.
how so?
Well, it comes directly after his accusation. So...it kind of acts like a scare tactic, making us think that perhaps we shouldn't be looking to kill spies, as well as trying to change the discussion from "Let's kill RBB!" to "Hmm, wonder about them there abilitiies."
Additionally, I'm positive that ElJeffe said specifically in the Hades posts that spies get special powers in down there. Now, I'd be willing to forgive an oversight, but he seems to be following things closely enough to not only respond to his accusation only a minute afterward, but also to notice that there are exactly -2- dead spies and -2- dead spy abilities.
ArrBeeBee's statement may have just been idle speculation. It seems like a fair enough guess that they get a power for each spy that goes below, since there's only six spies, not including Athan. But there's really no circumstance under which trying NOT to kill spies is a good game plan. It's the win condition after all...so why wouldn't we try to seek out as many spies as possible?
In addition to this principle ability, new abilities will be gained depending on the demographics in Hades. Dead specials will grant you new powers, and dead spies will grant the spies new powers. Sometimes, the ability granted may be more useful than the special himself was when he was alive. Sometimes not, and sometimes a dead special won’t grant you squat.
Not really clear if he's making a statement there that spies will always grant new powers or if they'll also sometimes not help. A literal interpretation is that spies always will, but specials won't, and that's probably the interpretation I'd adopt, since ElJeffe so clearly split the two in the previous statement.
Anyway, Ardor's word is fairly damning, as he's heading the network. If he speaks against someone, then it's evident that the person is not a member of the network, and so a probably enemy. Still, I'm searching the vote records, trying desperately to prove to myself that I didn't waste my time typing all those.
Half the people who voted for precisionk on night one were killed tonight. DarkPrimus, Nerissa, and Elkamil are all dead, while Dynagrip, redx, and Hakkekage are still alive. DP and Nerissa were fairly active in the thread, while Elkamil was lurking, as he seems to usually do, which seems like they could have all easily been real targets of the spies. redx is fairly inactive in the thread, but I don't know how he usually works in these, so I can't comment there. Dynagrip alleged Cass was innocent, so that means that he was at least mistaken, so if he's not a spy, he's at least really off his game. And I have no idea how Hakkekage usually acts, but he's fairly active here, so....um...I've got no real explanation there. So precisionk might be suspicious, maybe. Nerissa voted for him night 3 as well, so she still believed he was. This of course assumes that Nerissa's not a spy, and she's only had one vote against her, so I guess that she hasn't really been regarded as suspicious.
Can you all tell that I'm plenty confused here? Feel free to ignore my speculation, I've yet to get a real coherent theory formed about anyone...
Has anyone else noticed that there are two dead spies, and two Grecian special abilities in Hades? I'm thinking they'll probably gain one ability per spy we kill.
Man...I'm keeping my vote on Johannen, but this just shot you way up on the suspicion meter.
how so?
Well, it comes directly after his accusation. So...it kind of acts like a scare tactic, making us think that perhaps we shouldn't be looking to kill spies, as well as trying to change the discussion from "Let's kill RBB!" to "Hmm, wonder about them there abilitiies."
Additionally, I'm positive that ElJeffe said specifically in the Hades posts that spies get special powers in down there. Now, I'd be willing to forgive an oversight, but he seems to be following things closely enough to not only respond to his accusation only a minute afterward, but also to notice that there are exactly -2- dead spies and -2- dead spy abilities.
Man, that's a little weak. "Maybe we shouldn't be looking to kill spies" is about the worst argument ever, and noting that 2 = 2 is hardly some esoteric hidden spy science either. I'm not stupid.
That said, I don't suppose it particularly matters if I die or not. Hades is bopping, apparently. The only people who really have much to fear from death are specials and spies.
Half the people who voted for precisionk on night one were killed tonight. DarkPrimus, Nerissa, and Elkamil are all dead, while Dynagrip, redx, and Hakkekage are still alive. DP and Nerissa were fairly active in the thread, while Elkamil was lurking, as he seems to usually do, which seems like they could have all easily been real targets of the spies. redx is fairly inactive in the thread, but I don't know how he usually works in these, so I can't comment there. Dynagrip alleged Cass was innocent, so that means that he was at least mistaken, so if he's not a spy, he's at least really off his game. And I have no idea how Hakkekage usually acts, but he's fairly active here, so....um...I've got no real explanation there. So precisionk might be suspicious, maybe. Nerissa voted for him night 3 as well, so she still believed he was. This of course assumes that Nerissa's not a spy, and she's only had one vote against her, so I guess that she hasn't really been regarded as suspicious.
Can you all tell that I'm plenty confused here? Feel free to ignore my speculation, I've yet to get a real coherent theory formed about anyone...
I bolded a few thoughts you had, Buzz.
Unless I'm mistaken, and I'll begin to work back to be sure, Nerissa was highly suspicious of Squasha. I'm not pointing any fingers yet, or trying to start a bandwagon, but he might be suspcious as well. This, of course, assuming she wasn't the spy killed.
precisionk's name has come up more often the once. I'd say he's a bit suspicious as well. But there's the possibility,previously mentioned, that he's Athan; then, what're we supposed to do? Or is that the province of the dead villagers in Hades? "Can't be killed by mortal hands" and all that.
Posts
Well, damn, looks like our dear departed seer is worthless down there. They better kick his spirit ass.
-edit in response to edit, well, damn again.
We should kill the other one. Maybe then we'll get special powers. (KIDDING)
Also, I really want to read Hades. But I won't, because I'm a good person.
ON PREVIEW: Okay, so the six spies got five votes in the primary invasion. Most likely some of the more vocal members like Lady Eri. I guess it's a good thing the random pull took some of the semi-suspicious players like Farseer and DarkPrimus to help our focus? Gah, I'm still not thinking straight enough.
EDIT: Also, I hope that Ardor has the network set up by tomorrow night, 'cause that power of spies in Hades is gonna be tricky. Of course, since we have the Staff still, we can bring him back again. Maybe Ardor should give the staff to a trusted member of the network to revive him in that case?
Same vote from last night and the job wasn't done, so why not kill him tonight. He has certainly made alot of peoples lists as "likely" spies.
If he'd just be a kind lord, we could go about actually analyzing if it'd be worth it. With the way things are, though, it's far too risky to waste a staking on it. Though, if a seer dies by assassination, it gives us incentive not to resurrect him.
It might be in our best interest for Ardor to pass off the staff post-haste. The fact that he'll aid the village in some way in death gives the dead spies something to think about, but it's clear he's at very high risk right now.
Way to ruin the 100% protected staff, ElJeffe. Giggling in glee on that glorious pony?
1. Perhaps the oracles will get badass powers in hades, and we still have an oracle on the surface (hidden) who gets a vision every night; or
2. Just rez ardor again.
So we're still pretty golden.
The precise list:
Bunyip
DarkPrimus
FunkyWaltDogg
Gundam470
Lady Eri
Saburbia
Smasher
tuxkamen
Voted for Johannen:
DevoutlyApathetic
Elkamil
Locus
Plutonium
Thorgot
Tofu also voted for Johannen.
Voted for Dynagrip:
Farseer
Voted for Farseer:
Last Son
Voted for precisionk:
Nerissa
No vote:
Picardathon
TehSpectre
31 people voted for Tofu, while 15 for Johannen. 8/31 died, versus 5/15. I was trying to do a mathematical argument here, but I don't think it holds well. The larger number of people who voted for Tofu just breaks any real comparison, but you were slightly more likely to die if you voted for Johannen than if you voted for Tofu, [EDIT] which kinda doesn't make sense, since most of the kills were randomly decided [/EDIT]. This hardly implies that Johannen is a spy, but I figured I'd post it up.
I really don't have any idea how to interpret the data. I notice some trends, but they are not extremely persuasive. So I'm just going to post the dead's voting records for each night, and hopefully someone else will be able to make sense of it.
Night 1:
Bunyip
DevoutlyApathetic
Farseer
Funky
Gundam
Lady Eri
Last Son
Plutonium
Saburbia
TehSpectre
Thorgot
Tuxkamen
precisionk:
DarkPrimus
Elkamil
Nerissa
Farseer:
Locus
FunkyWaltDogg:
Picardathon
PsychoLarry
Smasher
Night 2:
DevoutlyApathetic
Farseer
Funky
Gundam
Lady Eri
Picardathon
Smasher
TehSpectre
Thorgot
Tuxkamen
Johannen:
Bunyip
Last Son
Locus
Plutonium
Saburbia
visiblehowl:
DarkPrimus
Dynagrip:
Nerissa
Squashua:
Elkamil
Note that this post was written before ElJeffe clarified how the kills happened, so the data might not actually be that relevant. I previewed post and saw his explanation, but it took me a while to type this up, so dammit, you're gonna get this post and you're gonna at least tolerate it. :P
I'm asking some clarification from ElJeffe, but it looks like I'm probably going to get my soul raped sideways in the near future. However, that will actually make us stronger in several ways. Those details will probably be given out at a later time or post death for me.
I'm actually quite positive how this is turning out, even with the huge amount of deaths we had.
Remember, the dead can read this thread and discuss in their own pm's and Hades thread, so we need to keep the ideas coming as much as possible. Our network will do the best we can to keep this game in our field.
But anyway, I think its safe to assume that tofu was the spy (why would the greeks kill one of their own?). Which, I think, puts even more suspicion on Johannen. Although he did wind up voting for Johannen in the end, this was when he was sure he would die, so we can't look at his vote for Johannen as proof of Johannen's innocence. Instead, what we know is:
a) Cass protected Johannen in the beginning.
b) Cass and Johannen were definitely linked.
c) Once the network was exposed, tofu, despite everyone else thinking Johannen was more suspicious than Dark Primus, decided to go after DarkPrimus instead of Johannen. He tried to move suspicion from Johannen onto DarkPrimus.
So we now have two spies who have gone out of their way to defend Johannen or move blame off of him. Maybe he's just one really unlucky hoplite being inadvertently linked to multiple spies, but I doubt it.
I vote Johannen to die.
This is nearly ideal if you look at it that way.
3 days, 2 spies and a guaranteed network. We've given ourselves a very good shot at this. While there isn't any way we can work with the dead, we can leave them ideas.
Also, plan on me dying tonight, so if you have ideas about the remaining folks here, sending them to me will mean I will bring information down to the dead. Also consider giving information to someone you think innocent that may be joining the rest of the crew in Hades. That's about the only way we have of giving them hidden info we may keep to ourselves.
Luckily, our network had an informant end up being slaughtered in tonight's invasion who was not only confirmed, but has the information necessary to keep them from voting our specials out.
I'm happy to report that things are still very positive for us, if not a bit screwed up with the whole Hades thing and all.
As mentioned before, if Ardor gets soulsnatched tomorrow night, we can resurrect him the next night. Then we'll get an insider's look into Hades, which could be VERY useful, considering the players that are down there and on our side. Just gotta keep things moving up here.
I think I'll hold off on an official vote for now, but I'm leaning with the crowd on Johannen still. We need to get an information base rolling sometime before the next vote.
If I remember correctly, our other prime suspects were Squashua and PrecisionK, right?
The Spy
For the sake of argument, let's assume the majority (and Lady Eri) was correct and Tofu was the spy. Mostly because it's nearly impossible to analyze otherwise.
The Dead
Wow. I am really not a good judge at who should be voted off Phalla Island. I have no idea which one of those was a seer. Of the others who died, I have been negative regarding DevoutlyApathetic, Nerissa, and FarseerBaradas. Of course, Devoutly was openly mean, Nerissa made like she was saying non-facts about me, and Farseer had a sensible "you are teh spy" from TehSpectre. Who is also innocent, it seems (well, right about ONE thing).
Network
So the "network founder" DarkPrimus was also innocent, which is cool because it exhonerates my "network" involvement as DarkPrimus stated he was the one who invited me. It also shows that Smasher and Funky (both innocents) weren't lying about being asked to join the network.
The Logic Defense for Johannen
- Johannen was willing to risk Tofu being Athan to show you that he was not a spy. Sure, it was a small chance, but whatever.
- Cass, a spy, "outed" Johannen as a member of a USELESS NETWORK (which I have explained more than once how useless it was) that was partially "founded" by DarkPrimus, who was shown to be INNOCENT. Why would Cass, a spy, out Johannen if Johannen was a spy?
The Logic Against Johannen
- Johannen could have known Tofu was a spy and not Athan.
- Johannen was the one who invited Cass into "The network".
- Lady Eri mentioned that maybe Johannen and/or DarkPrimus was a spy, and DarkPrimus ended up being innocent.
I'm still not 100% convinced about Johannen, but I'm quite willing to see if he dies tonight. I will see where today's voting takes us and cast later.
If we're going by the entire game, I believe that it's these three and visiblehowl as the only living people to see any amount of bandwagoning, as I said earlier. This last night, Johannen and Tofu were basically the only suspects.
The massacre hasn't done anything to sway my suspicion away from Johannen, and, honestly, the sheer death toll makes the whole thing convoluted enough that I'm personally not going to go through the effort of trying to find clues in the corpses of the night. If someone else can come up with something convincing, I wouldn't be against hearing it, but I think our efforts are best focused on the living right now.
With that, I !vote for Johannen, yet again.
Sure, the spies wouldn't kill one of their own. But ElJeffe said that 13 people were chosen randomly. Couldn't one of them have been a spy?
Yes, that is correct.
Unfortunately, there are not many leads (that I have), so our best bet would be to assume we were correct and carry on. I'm sure clearer heads will prevail in the morning.
As others have mentioned, he's the most likely candidate to be a spy.
But I'd also recommend keeping a close eye on PrecisionK. I suspect that he's not only a spy, he's Athan himself.
He's acting far more subdued and rational than normal. For example, look at Aroduc's game going on now, where he jumped right in to proclaim himself Emperor and wax eloquent about his "iron-fisted rule." In past games, such calmness has usually been an indicator that he's a special of some kind. He only acts crazy when he's a villager with nothing else to do.
Tofu almost certainly being a spy casts more suspicion on PrecisionK, and is what leads me to consider him as Athan. ElJeffe, Tofu, and PrecisionK were the servants in the last game. If PrecisionK was chosen to be Athan, it would be make perfect sense for him to select Tofu as an ally.
Going back to Aroduc's game, his actions there don't look good either. Imagine you're playing two Phalla games simultaneously. In one, you're effectively the leader of the monsters. Your decisions and continued survival determine the course of the entire game. In the other Phalla, you're just another villager. Wouldn't you be tempted to let the leader part carry over a little? You wouldn't outright reveal it or anything, of course, but you certainly might joke about being a despot, about crushing those who oppose you.
None of this evidence is particularly strong, which is why I am sticking with the Johannen vote. But if PrecisionK survives the next few days, we should keep him in mind.
it's literally ideal. Unless these new changes make this phalla work in a new way (that we haven't seen because we haven't experiences it) we can't have asked to be in beter shape than we are right now. except that they hit a seer (or Jeffe did)... but even that really doesn't matter much.
it would surprise me greatly if jeffe killed any of the specials himself. it's possible, but it just seems slightly unfair. granted, it is what it is, I'm not complaining, but unless he says otherwise I'm assuming we hit a spy and they hit a seer.
well done on all counts :-)
The random kills were completely random, and were selected from a list of everyone who wasn't Athan, spies included.
I'm going to go after players playing the game very conservatively and staying under the radar as that's how most monsters in the past have played.
That being said, I'm going to !I vote for Arrbeebee at this time. He's been playing the game very conservatively and not sticking out. I've seen him play in past games. He pays attention and he is usually around more than he posts in these games. I think he has somehting to hide.
He's been throwing suspicion around on Lady Eri who helped us bag 1-2 spies and did a retraction on Tofu, whom many of us believe was the spy to have died last night.
He's also offered Johannen up for being a spy or he'd eat his foot, I think that means Johannen should be quite clear of any suspicion should RBB prove to be a spy. The evidence against Johannen right now isn't exactly damning either. He's also been good at following bandwagons to stay off track. I honestly think he's a good place to start as far as conservative players go.
The fact that the seers do not lose nights as long as one remains means we can stand to lose one or two. That's pretty useful and the basis I used for throwing myself out on day 1. Even if nobody would've brought me back, it would've been beneficial.
I !vote for ArrBeeBee
Man...I'm keeping my vote on Johannen, but this just shot you way up on the suspicion meter.
well that's certainly fair but DAMN, doesn't help us!
Look, I don't know the status of the rez staff or where it is right now, but it is likely that the spies may use their magic death vote to off you.
So if you have the staff and someone you trust is alive and out of danger (not being bandwagoned) I'm sure it doesn't need to be said, but pass the baton.
edit I deleted my last sentence because I misinterpreted rules. IIRC, guardians cannot block the "dead spies kill a single living person" vote.
I'm hoping Lady Eri was right; either way, we're up shit's creek. With the obvious thus said, I'm going to toss out some thoughts.
-ArrBeeBee: While he may have been more active in a prior game, and thus damning him as a spy, I'm not too sure if it's a good reason to throw a vote for him right away.
-Rygar: I just noticed that in the beginning of the game, he was one of the more vocal among us. Suddenly, he shifts and he's been relatively quiet? I'd have to read through about 20 pages to be sure, but it seems a bit weird.
-Johannen: An ass to everyone since the beginning..but I'm not really sure if he is a spy.
Not going to vote yet, though..I want to wait a bit and see more reactions.
I'm gonna aim to be a bit more helpful, now that we lost more of our more active members.
how so?
I had motivation to be active in the beginning, now I am just trying to avoid pissing anyone off so I don't get bandwagoned again.
Well, it comes directly after his accusation. So...it kind of acts like a scare tactic, making us think that perhaps we shouldn't be looking to kill spies, as well as trying to change the discussion from "Let's kill RBB!" to "Hmm, wonder about them there abilitiies."
Additionally, I'm positive that ElJeffe said specifically in the Hades posts that spies get special powers in down there. Now, I'd be willing to forgive an oversight, but he seems to be following things closely enough to not only respond to his accusation only a minute afterward, but also to notice that there are exactly -2- dead spies and -2- dead spy abilities.
edit @Frostee - those are one-shot abilities, much like our five public-kill Hoplites.
Not really clear if he's making a statement there that spies will always grant new powers or if they'll also sometimes not help. A literal interpretation is that spies always will, but specials won't, and that's probably the interpretation I'd adopt, since ElJeffe so clearly split the two in the previous statement.
Anyway, Ardor's word is fairly damning, as he's heading the network. If he speaks against someone, then it's evident that the person is not a member of the network, and so a probably enemy. Still, I'm searching the vote records, trying desperately to prove to myself that I didn't waste my time typing all those.
Half the people who voted for precisionk on night one were killed tonight. DarkPrimus, Nerissa, and Elkamil are all dead, while Dynagrip, redx, and Hakkekage are still alive. DP and Nerissa were fairly active in the thread, while Elkamil was lurking, as he seems to usually do, which seems like they could have all easily been real targets of the spies. redx is fairly inactive in the thread, but I don't know how he usually works in these, so I can't comment there. Dynagrip alleged Cass was innocent, so that means that he was at least mistaken, so if he's not a spy, he's at least really off his game. And I have no idea how Hakkekage usually acts, but he's fairly active here, so....um...I've got no real explanation there. So precisionk might be suspicious, maybe. Nerissa voted for him night 3 as well, so she still believed he was. This of course assumes that Nerissa's not a spy, and she's only had one vote against her, so I guess that she hasn't really been regarded as suspicious.
Can you all tell that I'm plenty confused here? Feel free to ignore my speculation, I've yet to get a real coherent theory formed about anyone...
Man, that's a little weak. "Maybe we shouldn't be looking to kill spies" is about the worst argument ever, and noting that 2 = 2 is hardly some esoteric hidden spy science either. I'm not stupid.
That said, I don't suppose it particularly matters if I die or not. Hades is bopping, apparently. The only people who really have much to fear from death are specials and spies.
I bolded a few thoughts you had, Buzz.
Unless I'm mistaken, and I'll begin to work back to be sure, Nerissa was highly suspicious of Squasha. I'm not pointing any fingers yet, or trying to start a bandwagon, but he might be suspcious as well. This, of course, assuming she wasn't the spy killed.
precisionk's name has come up more often the once. I'd say he's a bit suspicious as well. But there's the possibility,previously mentioned, that he's Athan; then, what're we supposed to do? Or is that the province of the dead villagers in Hades? "Can't be killed by mortal hands" and all that.