In the interest of full disclosure, Dagon PM'ed both me and Sir Fab, apparently on the advice of Egos, asking if there was space available in our cabins.
He came to me wanting in on my cabin. There was none so I directed him towards places where I thought there might be availability, if people are wondering.
Also, early in the day I asked Bedlam if he wanted to and he said he had agreed to be in another cabin and that if I found two other people he might be interested!
I mean, to defend the couples last night, both alegis and warban were looking around for mates and seemingly not finding them last night. It could have been targets of convenience for the mafia.
We would need to look and see if they ever publicly said they had found a group.
I'm actually thinking right now that it makes Retaba and T_A less suspicious.
Not sure though.
What's the reasoning on this exactly? The groups weren't public knowledge at the time, so only their partners would know for sure that they were being guarded, which might imply that they are mafia more so than not.
He was lightning fast on the sirfab wagon, along with dagon. You might argue that two mafia would not jump on a wagon so quickly, and so close together, but I have definitely seen it happen on other days 1, and even later in a game's life as well.
Also, unless they come from before my time, they were both fairly new players, and that's an easy day 1 mistake to make. Now that Dagon has come up evil, I think it's a good shot. It's also worth saying that while bedlam was super quick to jump on stever, my initial barons vote got two votes pretty quick, and would have been the easier vote (at the time) for him to save himself.
Instead, he said nothing about it and voted on rend for no reason other than his self vote, and waited until a stever vote really got rolling, and jumped on it.
He was lightning fast on the sirfab wagon, along with dagon. You might argue that two mafia would not jump on a wagon so quickly, and so close together, but I have definitely seen it happen on other days 1, and even later in a game's life as well.
Also, unless they come from before my time, they were both fairly new players, and that's an easy day 1 mistake to make. Now that Dagon has come up evil, I think it's a good shot. It's also worth saying that while bedlam was super quick to jump on stever, my initial barons vote got two votes pretty quick, and would have been the easier vote (at the time) for him to save himself.
Instead, he said nothing about it and voted on rend for no reason other than his self vote, and waited until a stever vote really got rolling, and jumped on it.
See your fairly new thing is spot on, but it doesn't really show anything. To be honest I didn't realize that jumping on someone else on the first day was suspicious behaviour, someone's got to die right? And there really is no intel in the first day so I didn't see a difference.
I'm actually thinking right now that it makes Retaba and T_A less suspicious.
Not sure though.
What's the reasoning on this exactly? The groups weren't public knowledge at the time, so only their partners would know for sure that they were being guarded, which might imply that they are mafia more so than not.
Reasoning being that if mafia are taking the time to infiltrate cabins, they probably don't want to kill them off immediately, so they kill people that are not in their cabins.
He was lightning fast on the sirfab wagon, along with dagon. You might argue that two mafia would not jump on a wagon so quickly, and so close together, but I have definitely seen it happen on other days 1, and even later in a game's life as well.
Also, unless they come from before my time, they were both fairly new players, and that's an easy day 1 mistake to make. Now that Dagon has come up evil, I think it's a good shot. It's also worth saying that while bedlam was super quick to jump on stever, my initial barons vote got two votes pretty quick, and would have been the easier vote (at the time) for him to save himself.
Instead, he said nothing about it and voted on rend for no reason other than his self vote, and waited until a stever vote really got rolling, and jumped on it.
I'm actually thinking right now that it makes Retaba and T_A less suspicious.
Not sure though.
What's the reasoning on this exactly? The groups weren't public knowledge at the time, so only their partners would know for sure that they were being guarded, which might imply that they are mafia more so than not.
Reasoning being that if mafia are taking the time to infiltrate cabins, they probably don't want to kill them off immediately, so they kill people that are not in their cabins.
So the question is, what are the mafia thinking?
Are they thinking "let's keep our cabins safe, so that we can infiltrate more people."
or are they thinking "let's kill parts of our cabins, so that we have less to worry about from within"
or are they thinking "let's split between the two, so that we cannot be nailed down for using a single strategy"
The first one is the riskiest strategy, because with soft networks come knowledge. But infiltration is high-reward.
The second is the slightly less risky, plunging the village into chaos, since keeping track of cabins will be made much more difficult.
The third one is the safest strategy, keeping themselves from being easily found out by public means, but ensuring them no real avenue for further attack aside from either more random killings, or adopting a new strategy in the future.
He was lightning fast on the sirfab wagon, along with dagon. You might argue that two mafia would not jump on a wagon so quickly, and so close together, but I have definitely seen it happen on other days 1, and even later in a game's life as well.
Also, unless they come from before my time, they were both fairly new players, and that's an easy day 1 mistake to make. Now that Dagon has come up evil, I think it's a good shot. It's also worth saying that while bedlam was super quick to jump on stever, my initial barons vote got two votes pretty quick, and would have been the easier vote (at the time) for him to save himself.
Instead, he said nothing about it and voted on rend for no reason other than his self vote, and waited until a stever vote really got rolling, and jumped on it.
See your fairly new thing is spot on, but it doesn't really show anything. To be honest I didn't realize that jumping on someone else on the first day was suspicious behaviour, someone's got to die right? And there really is no intel in the first day so I didn't see a difference.
No, but this is the kind of thing a group of players would discuss and say "hey, probably shouldn't do this."
@MrTLicious - I don't think we can assume they weren't trying to spread themselves around on Night 1, after losing two of them I wouldn't be so entirely sure anymore.
EDIT: Realized this doesn't make my point well! After losing two members, I'm not sure they can spread themselves around safely with 23 players, that's a minimum 6 cabins with an assumed 3-4 more mafia members to find, so they're spread pretty thin.
He was lightning fast on the sirfab wagon, along with dagon. You might argue that two mafia would not jump on a wagon so quickly, and so close together, but I have definitely seen it happen on other days 1, and even later in a game's life as well.
Also, unless they come from before my time, they were both fairly new players, and that's an easy day 1 mistake to make. Now that Dagon has come up evil, I think it's a good shot. It's also worth saying that while bedlam was super quick to jump on stever, my initial barons vote got two votes pretty quick, and would have been the easier vote (at the time) for him to save himself.
Instead, he said nothing about it and voted on rend for no reason other than his self vote, and waited until a stever vote really got rolling, and jumped on it.
See your fairly new thing is spot on, but it doesn't really show anything. To be honest I didn't realize that jumping on someone else on the first day was suspicious behaviour, someone's got to die right? And there really is no intel in the first day so I didn't see a difference.
mafia look for votes to jump on during day one, and a mafia tell can be someone who jumps on a wagon really quickly, and with little reasoning. It was also something that was happening to derail the votes forming up on bedlam. And you switched from Retaba to Sir Fab pretty quickly.
Nothing about this is damming, it is just my guess from the day one record.
To seriously address the Sir fab thing, I would say that bedlam voted for sir fab well into the night, as a public deal with stever. It was an effort to get more votes on fab, and not get voted out, and then have a large wagon on him if any of them came up red later. I don't think it is insane.
Posts
I tied it with 5 hours to go.
Sir Fab pushed it over the top.
Dagon put it up by one more.
Then Grimmy switched from the 2nd place to a meaningless vote (further cementing Bedlam).
Then Capfalcon voted meaninglessly.
The kime piled onto Bedlam.
He came to me wanting in on my cabin. There was none so I directed him towards places where I thought there might be availability, if people are wondering.
Me Ted! Meathead!
oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
PSN : TheDagon
Pretty much every game ever : TheDagon
Yeah. Something I ate, maybe.
Clarification Denied
My much too early vote will be for Greenbarons for the reason that Langly stated (he was part of my cabin crew).
Are you voting for a dead mafia player..?
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
Steam profile
Monocle Cabin:
Rysk
jdarksun
Smoove Operator
Rend
We're classy!
MrT - It confused me because you bold red'd his name, i.e. you voted for him
3DS Friend Code: 3110-5393-4113
Steam profile
I'm not sure who it is likely to implicate yet, but I highly doubt that was chance.
We would need to look and see if they ever publicly said they had found a group.
Not sure though.
You're mistaken.
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
What's the reasoning on this exactly? The groups weren't public knowledge at the time, so only their partners would know for sure that they were being guarded, which might imply that they are mafia more so than not.
He was lightning fast on the sirfab wagon, along with dagon. You might argue that two mafia would not jump on a wagon so quickly, and so close together, but I have definitely seen it happen on other days 1, and even later in a game's life as well.
Also, unless they come from before my time, they were both fairly new players, and that's an easy day 1 mistake to make. Now that Dagon has come up evil, I think it's a good shot. It's also worth saying that while bedlam was super quick to jump on stever, my initial barons vote got two votes pretty quick, and would have been the easier vote (at the time) for him to save himself.
Instead, he said nothing about it and voted on rend for no reason other than his self vote, and waited until a stever vote really got rolling, and jumped on it.
See your fairly new thing is spot on, but it doesn't really show anything. To be honest I didn't realize that jumping on someone else on the first day was suspicious behaviour, someone's got to die right? And there really is no intel in the first day so I didn't see a difference.
Reasoning being that if mafia are taking the time to infiltrate cabins, they probably don't want to kill them off immediately, so they kill people that are not in their cabins.
You know Bedlam jumped on that wagon too.
2 is a maybe. 3 is...
crazypants
So the question is, what are the mafia thinking?
Are they thinking "let's keep our cabins safe, so that we can infiltrate more people."
or are they thinking "let's kill parts of our cabins, so that we have less to worry about from within"
or are they thinking "let's split between the two, so that we cannot be nailed down for using a single strategy"
The first one is the riskiest strategy, because with soft networks come knowledge. But infiltration is high-reward.
The second is the slightly less risky, plunging the village into chaos, since keeping track of cabins will be made much more difficult.
The third one is the safest strategy, keeping themselves from being easily found out by public means, but ensuring them no real avenue for further attack aside from either more random killings, or adopting a new strategy in the future.
So who are the mafia? And how do they play?
What??!!
How can anyone hate Sir Fab?
The Black Hole of Cygnus X-1
all according to keikeku
No, but this is the kind of thing a group of players would discuss and say "hey, probably shouldn't do this."
@MrTLicious - I don't think we can assume they weren't trying to spread themselves around on Night 1, after losing two of them I wouldn't be so entirely sure anymore.
EDIT: Realized this doesn't make my point well! After losing two members, I'm not sure they can spread themselves around safely with 23 players, that's a minimum 6 cabins with an assumed 3-4 more mafia members to find, so they're spread pretty thin.
mafia look for votes to jump on during day one, and a mafia tell can be someone who jumps on a wagon really quickly, and with little reasoning. It was also something that was happening to derail the votes forming up on bedlam. And you switched from Retaba to Sir Fab pretty quickly.
Nothing about this is damming, it is just my guess from the day one record.
To seriously address the Sir fab thing, I would say that bedlam voted for sir fab well into the night, as a public deal with stever. It was an effort to get more votes on fab, and not get voted out, and then have a large wagon on him if any of them came up red later. I don't think it is insane.