Why does the budget have to be in a tiny red briefcase?
They're ministerial security boxes. They're designed so that they'll survive a bomb blast and sink if thrown overboard from a ship (really).
The other nifty feature is that they can only be closed when locked, and they open from the bottom so that they can't be carried around in an unlocked state.
The red is traditional. Black versions exist but I think the red is probably used so that it can't be mistaken for anything else, as a kind of constant visual reminder that it isn't an ordinary briefcase.
The problem with this budget is that the Chancellor needs to highlight the good work the Government has done to produce a healthy economy. Only to then completely undermine itself by talking about Brexit. It's basically admitting there's no economic case for leaving the EU, which is no surprise to anyone.
"The UK is healthy and it's all thanks to the Conservatives. However, we must prepare to change everything because it's broken, all thanks to the Conservatives."
Ok, sorry, what I should have said is that it doesn't *realistically* take into account the effects. This will have a huge impact on the economy, and hand waving away a few basis points of growth is dishonest.
These are the assumptions the OBR made in relation to Brexit:
The OBR is required by legislation to produce its forecasts on the basis of current stated Government policy (but not necessarily assuming that specific objectives will be met). In the current context of looming Brexit negotiations, this is far from straightforward. Quite appropriately, we have been given no information regarding the Government’s goals or expectations for the negotiations that is not already in the public domain.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the choices and trade-offs that the Government may have to make, and the consequences of different outcomes, we have not attempted to predict the precise end result of the negotiations. Instead we have made a judgement – consistent with most external studies – that over the time horizon of our forecast any likely Brexit outcome would lead to lower trade flows, lower investment and lower net inward migration than we would otherwise have seen, and hence lower potential output. In time the performance of the economy will also be affected by future choices that the Government makes about regulatory and other policies that are currently determined at the European level. These could move in either a growth-enhancing or a growth-impeding direction.
In the near term, as the negotiations get under way, we assume that GDP growth will continue to slow into next year as uncertainty leads firms to delay investment and as consumers are squeezed by higher import prices, thanks to the fall in the pound. But we do not assume that firms shed jobs more aggressively or that consumers increase precautionary saving, both of which are downside risks if the path to Brexit is bumpy. Our forecasts are currently somewhat less pessimistic than those in the Bank of England’s November Inflation Report and the Treasury’s published pre-referendum analysis, but in current circumstances the uncertainty around them is even greater than it would be in normal times.
The negotiations will also determine the scope and scale of any ongoing financial flows between the UK and the EU. Again we do not know enough about the Government’s preferences, or its chances of achieving them, to make a precise forecast. Instead we produce a ‘no referendum’ counterfactual for our transfers to the EU – a forecast of the flows we would expect to see if the UK had not voted to leave the EU – and make the fiscally neutral assumption that any reduction would be recycled into extra domestic spending.
Which is to say, that predicting the outcome of these things with something like Brexit looming in the distance is bloody hard, and you're being unfair when you think they're just handwaving it away because it doesn't match your own assumptions. Remember, the OBR were attacked by the likes of IDS and Boris Johnson for making the forecast that 60b would be lost due to Brexit.
However, prominent Brexiteers in Theresa May's ruling party are refusing to accept the OBR's grim projections.
Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, said it was "another utter doom and gloom scenario" put together by an organisation "that simply hasn’t got anything right."
"The key thing is that the OBR has been wrong in every single forecast they’ve made so far. On the deficit, on growth, on jobs — they’ve pretty much been wrong on everything," the former cabinet minister said.
"Yet again one of these forecasting engines that is very close to the Treasury has come out with another utter doom and gloom scenario."
Tory Brexiteer Philip Davies agreed. Speaking to The Telegraph, he said: "It seems their forecasts are based on their personal political opinions about Brexit rather than on any genuine attempt at an accurate and independent forecast."
Another minister told the newspaper: "We were told we would be in a recession after Brexit. We are not. These predictions are worthless."
.
All I'm saying is it's silly the way people react to forecasts. You accuse them of dishonesty in the same way Philips Davies does.
However, prominent Brexiteers in Theresa May's ruling party are refusing to accept the OBR's grim projections.
Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, said it was "another utter doom and gloom scenario" put together by an organisation "that simply hasn’t got anything right."
"The key thing is that the OBR has been wrong in every single forecast they’ve made so far. On the deficit, on growth, on jobs — they’ve pretty much been wrong on everything," the former cabinet minister said.
"Yet again one of these forecasting engines that is very close to the Treasury has come out with another utter doom and gloom scenario."
Tory Brexiteer Philip Davies agreed. Speaking to The Telegraph, he said: "It seems their forecasts are based on their personal political opinions about Brexit rather than on any genuine attempt at an accurate and independent forecast."
Another minister told the newspaper: "We were told we would be in a recession after Brexit. We are not. These predictions are worthless."
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All I'm saying is it's silly the way people react to forecasts. You accuse them of dishonesty in the same way Philips Davies does.
That's true, forecasting is a tough job that nobody likes and everyone can criticize.
I guess what I would have liked to see is forecasts for different scenarios on this. For example, if the UK has a deal that basically puts them in the EEA, predictions go one way. If the UK leaves without any trade agreement at all, predictions go another. I'm thinking mostly of the financial services industry, since that is where I work (in the US). Losing the ability to be the financial capital of the EU could have huge knock on effects.
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SnicketysnickThe Greatest Hype Man inWesterosRegistered Userregular
Oh those forecasts definitely exist, but you can't present say three different budgets for three different forecasts, you have to pick one. Besides, if the negotiations give a solid indication of a direction before October, there will be an Autumn Statement reflecting that, and then continued in March next year.
Isn't soliciting child porn a thing? Like, if they asked for examples and the BBC have proof of that, aren't they in even more serious shit in this fight?
yeah basically whoever actually sent that request is looking at jail time and certainly a good long run on the sexual offenders list.
Oh jeez I had forgotten that was still a thing! What does it take to get that removed?
A constitutional amendment (to undo the amendment banning it in the first place) ratified by a national referendum.
oh god a referendum
Hey! Hey!
Our referendums are cool, I'll have you know! Our last one enshrined the rights of same sex couples to marry in our constitution and lead to an epic improvised Pride party in Dame Street, as well as lots of public proposals.
Oh jeez I had forgotten that was still a thing! What does it take to get that removed?
A constitutional amendment (to undo the amendment banning it in the first place) ratified by a national referendum.
oh god a referendum
Hey! Hey!
Our referendums are cool, I'll have you know! Our last one enshrined the rights of same sex couples to marry in our constitution and lead to an epic improvised Pride party in Dame Street, as well as lots of public proposals.
Oh yes, I'd forgotten that. As I said at the time, Irish weddings are super fun, and gay weddings are super fun, so this could only lead to the superest funnest of weddings.
Oh jeez I had forgotten that was still a thing! What does it take to get that removed?
A constitutional amendment (to undo the amendment banning it in the first place) ratified by a national referendum.
oh god a referendum
Hey! Hey!
Our referendums are cool, I'll have you know! Our last one enshrined the rights of same sex couples to marry in our constitution and lead to an epic improvised Pride party in Dame Street, as well as lots of public proposals.
Oh yes, I'd forgotten that. As I said at the time, Irish weddings are super fun, and gay weddings are super fun, so this could only lead to the superest funnest of weddings.
There were massive crowds watching the Marriage referendum results come in live on a big screen in the grounds of Dublin Castle. It was pretty awesome. On my way home I passed the American College and decided to wander over to the statue of Oscar Wilde in the park just opposite. People had left lipstick kisses over his name and one had written "Thank You" in lipstick beside it.
The first anniversary of the referendum happened to fall at the time of the Pulse massacre in Florida. A couple of hundred of us ended up back in Dame Street where we'd celebrated the results as a gesture of solidarity. We held hands and sang "Over The Rainbow"
The universities of Sussex and Loughborough appear at the top of global rankings comparing universities by individual subjects.
Sussex is rated the world's best for development studies and Loughborough for sport.
But the most top places are taken by two US universities - Harvard, and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Among UK universities, Oxford is rated top in the most subjects - English, geography, anatomy and archaeology.
The annual QS World University Rankings by Subject compare institutions across 46 subjects.
There are a number of UK universities claiming first places, in rankings based on 43 million research papers and 305,000 responses to an academic survey.
Loughborough, which has produced a number of elite athletes, is rated as best in sports-related subjects, while Sussex is this year identified as the best for development studies, replacing Harvard.
The Royal College of Art is top for art and design and the Institute of Education, part of University College London, is in first place for education.
The University of Cambridge is rated as the most consistent - with more subjects in the top 10 than any other institution, followed by the University of California, Berkeley.
A number of other UK universities are among the top 10s in subject rankings - including Reading, London School of Economics, Goldsmiths, Durham, Manchester and Imperial.
A quarter of all top 10 rankings are taken by UK universities - with the US and UK having the biggest share of the highest places.
Among continental European universities, ETH Zurich was top in earth and marine sciences, while Hong Kong University was top at dentistry.
Isn't soliciting child porn a thing? Like, if they asked for examples and the BBC have proof of that, aren't they in even more serious shit in this fight?
yeah basically whoever actually sent that request is looking at jail time and certainly a good long run on the sexual offenders list.
Pretty sure this isn't an offence.
I mean I'd have to go through the Sexual Offences Act 2003 again, but I def don't recall anything of that nature.
Know that Cameron was talking about bringing in legislation to make directly soliciting indecent images from kids an offence, but not more then that.
Edit: Even if they did receive, they might be covered by section 46 anyway(necessary to do so for prevention, detection, etc of crime)?
Posts
Lots of women are on strike here today in yet another effort to get Ireland's 8th amendment repealed.
You carry on with the thread. I'll be over here chanting and waving a sign.
*Scabs on the talking 'bout politics job*
Because a little USB stick is less symbolic.
Choose Your Own Chat 1 Choose Your Own Chat 2 Choose Your Own Chat 3
This is like Parks and Rec: UK edition.
They're ministerial security boxes. They're designed so that they'll survive a bomb blast and sink if thrown overboard from a ship (really).
The other nifty feature is that they can only be closed when locked, and they open from the bottom so that they can't be carried around in an unlocked state.
The red is traditional. Black versions exist but I think the red is probably used so that it can't be mistaken for anything else, as a kind of constant visual reminder that it isn't an ordinary briefcase.
Not true
"The UK is healthy and it's all thanks to the Conservatives. However, we must prepare to change everything because it's broken, all thanks to the Conservatives."
Ok, sorry, what I should have said is that it doesn't *realistically* take into account the effects. This will have a huge impact on the economy, and hand waving away a few basis points of growth is dishonest.
Which is to say, that predicting the outcome of these things with something like Brexit looming in the distance is bloody hard, and you're being unfair when you think they're just handwaving it away because it doesn't match your own assumptions. Remember, the OBR were attacked by the likes of IDS and Boris Johnson for making the forecast that 60b would be lost due to Brexit.
.
All I'm saying is it's silly the way people react to forecasts. You accuse them of dishonesty in the same way Philips Davies does.
Its not that tiny either, Hammond is a pretty tall guy (6'3 or something)
That's O'Connell Street in Dublin. Two hours in and traffic is still being stopped through the city centre.
That's true, forecasting is a tough job that nobody likes and everyone can criticize.
I guess what I would have liked to see is forecasts for different scenarios on this. For example, if the UK has a deal that basically puts them in the EEA, predictions go one way. If the UK leaves without any trade agreement at all, predictions go another. I'm thinking mostly of the financial services industry, since that is where I work (in the US). Losing the ability to be the financial capital of the EU could have huge knock on effects.
D3 Steam #TeamTangent STO
yeah basically whoever actually sent that request is looking at jail time and certainly a good long run on the sexual offenders list.
They are rallying to legalize abortion
Oh jeez I had forgotten that was still a thing! What does it take to get that removed?
A constitutional amendment (to undo the amendment banning it in the first place) ratified by a national referendum.
-and any government having enough spine to call said referendum.
oh god a referendum
Hey! Hey!
Our referendums are cool, I'll have you know! Our last one enshrined the rights of same sex couples to marry in our constitution and lead to an epic improvised Pride party in Dame Street, as well as lots of public proposals.
The cause of and solution to all problems.
Oh yes, I'd forgotten that. As I said at the time, Irish weddings are super fun, and gay weddings are super fun, so this could only lead to the superest funnest of weddings.
I clearly have post-referendum trauma.
Only natural
irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/poll-shows-public-support-for-abortion-is-cautious-and-conditional-1.2995696
The first anniversary of the referendum happened to fall at the time of the Pulse massacre in Florida. A couple of hundred of us ended up back in Dame Street where we'd celebrated the results as a gesture of solidarity. We held hands and sang "Over The Rainbow"
bbc.co.uk/news/education-39198427
Insert "I don't want to live on this planet anymore.gif"
Why don't bad things happen to bad people?
Welcome to 2017.
Pretty sure this isn't an offence.
I mean I'd have to go through the Sexual Offences Act 2003 again, but I def don't recall anything of that nature.
Know that Cameron was talking about bringing in legislation to make directly soliciting indecent images from kids an offence, but not more then that.
Edit: Even if they did receive, they might be covered by section 46 anyway(necessary to do so for prevention, detection, etc of crime)?
BREXIT HASN'T HAPPENED YET YOU FUCKSPANNER
Steam: adamjnet
That seems like a weird thing to put in your Constitution, but I guess we have the gun thing ...
Well, it was a reaction to Roe V Wade.
Celeste [Switch] - She'll be wrestling with inner demons when she comes...