I saw something over the last few days about a combined EU nuclear program. Is this connected to that or just a bunch of countries that now feel they want in on the MAD game?
That idea was basically putting French nukes under an EU command structure to have a deterrent force against Russia if we don't back our European allies. Germans developing their own is different and worrying.
Is Germany not already in the "doesn't have nukes because they haven't felt like it" box though? Like, I'd imagine they only really need to put it together to have one more or less. Actually building them would be worrying though, since it would mean they no longer trusted NATO's threat of MAD to protect them.
It's the breakdown of the nuclear non-proliferation norm that is worrying more than any specific concern about Germany. And yes, Germany, Japan, and South Korea are definite could be nuclear powers whenever they want basically. There are probably some others. Italy would be if they hadn't closed their nuclear power plants.
Germany also closed all of their nuke plants, though, so there might be a lagtime for them in getting the fissile material, unlike Japan who literally produces weapons-grade fuel as the waste from their plants. They could have a massive arsenal very quickly if they wanted.
It's entirely possible they could get it relatively easily from other EU nations
Or from Japan. Like bum said, though, the main concern is the breakdown in nonproliferation. If Iran doesn't have a nuke within four years it'll be a miracle.
Japan might try to amend their self-defense clause to allow for nukes and mecha-godzilla deterents.
Well, a miracle or a hulking crater with millions dead. One of those.
What
Iran's not having a nuke within the next 4 years will be due to either:
1- a miracle.
2- us having bombed them into a hulking crater with millions dead.
At least, that's how I read it.
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lonelyahavaCall me Ahava ~~She/Her~~Move to New ZealandRegistered Userregular
In slightly less dramatic, yet still important news:
Is it bad that I'm sort of pleased the snow over there looks set to fuck up our Taoiseach going over to smarm the new administration? Because it's thrown Enda Kenny's trip into chaos and I'm kinda glad.
Is it bad that I'm sort of pleased the snow over there looks set to fuck up our Taoiseach going over to smarm the new administration? Because it's thrown Enda Kenny's trip into chaos and I'm kinda glad.
Should be gone by Friday, fortunately (this is weak compared to where i used to live, but still a nicer St. Patrick's night would be cool).
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Mx. QuillI now prefer "Myr. Quill", actually...{They/Them}Registered Userregular
edited March 2017
Sorry, but I really wouldn't put it past Trump to put the Presidency on hold to head somewhere warm if a snowstorm blew into DC.
He does so every weekend, a few days wouldn't make a difference to him.
That seems a fairly global thing.
I swear it's like a winter tradition in my family to wonder just how the fuck couple inches of snow manages to make so many major cities simply stop working.
You do when you live in the Rockies. But having grown up on the Atlantic Seaboard - an area that has its own nicknames for snowstorms - it amazes me how little you have to go south for people to be amazed by snow (as opposed to considering it a four letter word.)
Somali Pirates are at it again, will the US snipe them in the face on a major holiday? Or will Trump not authorize our carrier group to help a random ship?
It absolutely belongs in this thread, I think. The rise of populism in Europe and the US is a massive issue, and Rutte's victory is a positive sign which has a knock on effect on the strength of the EU going forward.
The key election happens next month when Le Pen, the Russian backed National Front candidate, tries to become President of France. If she gets in somehow it will be an absolute unmitigated disaster for the EU, and for global security and stability.
It absolutely belongs in this thread, I think. The rise of populism in Europe and the US is a massive issue, and Rutte's victory is a positive sign which has a knock on effect on the strength of the EU going forward.
The key election happens next month when Le Pen, the Russian backed National Front candidate, tries to become President of France. If she gets in somehow it will be an absolute unmitigated disaster for the EU, and for global security and stability.
If she does, I'm sure her and Trump will be best buddies until they hate each other.
I'd give it a year or two tops before they start calling each other out on not doing enough [insert talking point here] or too much [insert other talking point here] about a given subject/thing that is important to each others security/well being/national standing/whatever.
It absolutely belongs in this thread, I think. The rise of populism in Europe and the US is a massive issue, and Rutte's victory is a positive sign which has a knock on effect on the strength of the EU going forward.
The key election happens next month when Le Pen, the Russian backed National Front candidate, tries to become President of France. If she gets in somehow it will be an absolute unmitigated disaster for the EU, and for global security and stability.
If she does, I'm sure her and Trump will be best buddies until they hate each other.
I'd give it a year or two tops before they start calling each other out on not doing enough [insert talking point here] or too much [insert other talking point here] about a given subject/thing that is important to each others security/well being/national standing/whatever.
It wouldn't matter. Le Pen is anti-immigration, anti-EU, anti-NATO and pro-Russia. If she becomes President of France she takes one of the permanent seats on the UN Security Council. That council would be Le Pen, Trump, Putin, May and Jinping, along with the ten non-permanent members serving two year terms.
In other words the refugee crisis would get immeasurably worse as France joins in the "let other people deal with it" approach, the EU would be fatally destabilised (Brexit isn't much of a problem, but Frexit would be a disaster) NATO would very likely dissolve and Putin would have a great big nothing between him and his expansionist agend.
Just imagine the damage he could do within months if that all falls into place.
The French and German elections this year are so important for the future direction of the EU. Both countries are basically the core of the european integration.
The French and German elections this year are so important for the future direction of the EU. Both countries are basically the core of the european integration.
And we need both. EU can't be France and Friends nor Germany and Friends, and certainly not Neither and Friends. And we all need the EU.
Speaking of France there have been two terrorist incidents there today, a letter bomb at the IMF office in Paris and a shooting at a school (one suspect apprehended, another on the run.)
Speaking of France there have been two terrorist incidents there today, a letter bomb at the IMF office in Paris and a shooting at a school (one suspect apprehended, another on the run.)
Thankfully there are no fatalities.
German Ministry of Finance also recieved a package with explosives. Got caught before anything happened, though.
The French police have revised their terrorism alert and say the school shooting wasn't a terrorist incident. They've arrested a "heavily armed" 17 year old.
So it seems the letter bombs are the only terrorist incidents. It's very good news that nobody has been killed. Hopefully the person who opened the one in Paris isn't too badly hurt.
Don't be too happy, PVV has still grown (going from 15 to 20 seats) and has become the 2nd largest party at the moment and VVD (Rutte's party) went from 41 to 33 seats (so their win is relative). The big loser is the PvdA (Labour Party), the former 2nd largest party, who went from 38 to 9 seats. Those voters probably went to D66 (Democrats), Groen Links (Green Party) and PvdD (Party for Animal Rights).
The way we have like 10 large parties (more than 5 seats) and about 2 dozen small parties (0-5 seats) means that we're always ruled by coallitions (upside: no chance for any major party to fully steer the country, downside: real changes are very, very slow). Coalation will probably be VVD (Liberals), CDA (Christian Democrats) and D66 (Democrats), but they still need a fourth party to get majority.
(Note: translations of party names to english parties don't really cover the real party policies behind them, just a rough idea where they stand.)
Something I find interesting is that the intelligence community is not going to see any budget cuts. I would think that if the new administration was actually going to war with that group they'd put severe budget cuts on the table ala the state department. But they aren't, in fact they're allowing the IC to operate basically as normal.
Something I find interesting is that the intelligence community is not going to see any budget cuts. I would think that if the new administration was actually going to war with that group they'd put severe budget cuts on the table ala the state department. But they aren't, in fact they're allowing the IC to operate basically as normal.
Budget cuts to the IC would just be force feeding talking points about how the Trump admin isnt serious about stopping terror attacks & is trying to stop investigations into their own foreign ties.
Something I find interesting is that the intelligence community is not going to see any budget cuts. I would think that if the new administration was actually going to war with that group they'd put severe budget cuts on the table ala the state department. But they aren't, in fact they're allowing the IC to operate basically as normal.
Budget cuts to the IC would just be force feeding talking points about how the Trump admin isnt serious about stopping terror attacks & is trying to stop investigations into their own foreign ties.
Very true, but honestly I think part of the problem is a lot of the IC falls under DoD budgets. It's harder to go "Budget increase to defense! Except IC!"
Of course they're also decreasing the budget to the Energy Department which...is a fairly unknown but super important IC member.
It's now looking like Le Pen won't even place first in the first-round poll, and that her likely 2nd round opponent is the toughest one for her to beat.
It's now looking like Le Pen won't even place first in the first-round poll, and that her likely 2nd round opponent is the toughest one for her to beat.
Wait, how exactly do French elections work? Is it like the NCAA tournament or something? Are we hoping for a 15-2 upset?
It's now looking like Le Pen won't even place first in the first-round poll, and that her likely 2nd round opponent is the toughest one for her to beat.
Wait, how exactly do French elections work? Is it like the NCAA tournament or something? Are we hoping for a 15-2 upset?
It's a two round process. There's an initial vote and then if no candidate gets a majority in the first round (never happens afaik) there is a follow-up run-off election between the top two candidates from the first round.
It's now looking like Le Pen won't even place first in the first-round poll, and that her likely 2nd round opponent is the toughest one for her to beat.
Wait, how exactly do French elections work? Is it like the NCAA tournament or something? Are we hoping for a 15-2 upset?
It's a two round process. There's an initial vote and then if no candidate gets a majority in the first round (never happens afaik) there is a follow-up run-off election between the top two candidates from the first round.
Aw, that is significantly less interesting than I was hoping for.
It's now looking like Le Pen won't even place first in the first-round poll, and that her likely 2nd round opponent is the toughest one for her to beat.
Wait, how exactly do French elections work? Is it like the NCAA tournament or something? Are we hoping for a 15-2 upset?
It's a two round process. There's an initial vote and then if no candidate gets a majority in the first round (never happens afaik) there is a follow-up run-off election between the top two candidates from the first round.
Aw, that is significantly less interesting than I was hoping for.
What if I lied and told you that there was a round before the voting where all the people who want to run for president have a brawl in an alley with rebar and steel pipes and only those able to walk away at the end get to appear on the ballot?
Posts
Iran's not having a nuke within the next 4 years will be due to either:
1- a miracle.
2- us having bombed them into a hulking crater with millions dead.
At least, that's how I read it.
Americans applying for NZ citizenship is up 70% since November.
And no, that doesn't include Peter Thiel.
I wonder if those numbers are similar elsewhere.
Democrats Abroad! || Vote From Abroad
Did Crybaby-in-Chief flee to his "winter White House" to avoid all the big, bad snow?
Please don't use nicknames for elected officials in political threads.
Nah, he's meeting with the Saudi Defense minister right now.
Should be gone by Friday, fortunately (this is weak compared to where i used to live, but still a nicer St. Patrick's night would be cool).
He does so every weekend, a few days wouldn't make a difference to him.
Congress basically shuts down for a few inches of snow. That's just politics.
I swear it's like a winter tradition in my family to wonder just how the fuck couple inches of snow manages to make so many major cities simply stop working.
You do when you live in the Rockies. But having grown up on the Atlantic Seaboard - an area that has its own nicknames for snowstorms - it amazes me how little you have to go south for people to be amazed by snow (as opposed to considering it a four letter word.)
Increasingly so in recent years.
In Foreign Policy news: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-39277729
Somali Pirates are at it again, will the US snipe them in the face on a major holiday? Or will Trump not authorize our carrier group to help a random ship?
...yeah.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/16/europe/netherlands-dutch-results/
It absolutely belongs in this thread, I think. The rise of populism in Europe and the US is a massive issue, and Rutte's victory is a positive sign which has a knock on effect on the strength of the EU going forward.
The key election happens next month when Le Pen, the Russian backed National Front candidate, tries to become President of France. If she gets in somehow it will be an absolute unmitigated disaster for the EU, and for global security and stability.
If she does, I'm sure her and Trump will be best buddies until they hate each other.
I'd give it a year or two tops before they start calling each other out on not doing enough [insert talking point here] or too much [insert other talking point here] about a given subject/thing that is important to each others security/well being/national standing/whatever.
It wouldn't matter. Le Pen is anti-immigration, anti-EU, anti-NATO and pro-Russia. If she becomes President of France she takes one of the permanent seats on the UN Security Council. That council would be Le Pen, Trump, Putin, May and Jinping, along with the ten non-permanent members serving two year terms.
In other words the refugee crisis would get immeasurably worse as France joins in the "let other people deal with it" approach, the EU would be fatally destabilised (Brexit isn't much of a problem, but Frexit would be a disaster) NATO would very likely dissolve and Putin would have a great big nothing between him and his expansionist agend.
Just imagine the damage he could do within months if that all falls into place.
And we need both. EU can't be France and Friends nor Germany and Friends, and certainly not Neither and Friends. And we all need the EU.
Thankfully there are no fatalities.
German Ministry of Finance also recieved a package with explosives. Got caught before anything happened, though.
So it seems the letter bombs are the only terrorist incidents. It's very good news that nobody has been killed. Hopefully the person who opened the one in Paris isn't too badly hurt.
Don't be too happy, PVV has still grown (going from 15 to 20 seats) and has become the 2nd largest party at the moment and VVD (Rutte's party) went from 41 to 33 seats (so their win is relative). The big loser is the PvdA (Labour Party), the former 2nd largest party, who went from 38 to 9 seats. Those voters probably went to D66 (Democrats), Groen Links (Green Party) and PvdD (Party for Animal Rights).
The way we have like 10 large parties (more than 5 seats) and about 2 dozen small parties (0-5 seats) means that we're always ruled by coallitions (upside: no chance for any major party to fully steer the country, downside: real changes are very, very slow). Coalation will probably be VVD (Liberals), CDA (Christian Democrats) and D66 (Democrats), but they still need a fourth party to get majority.
(Note: translations of party names to english parties don't really cover the real party policies behind them, just a rough idea where they stand.)
As mentioned above, the scarier elections are still coming.
Budget cuts to the IC would just be force feeding talking points about how the Trump admin isnt serious about stopping terror attacks & is trying to stop investigations into their own foreign ties.
MWO: Adamski
Very true, but honestly I think part of the problem is a lot of the IC falls under DoD budgets. It's harder to go "Budget increase to defense! Except IC!"
Of course they're also decreasing the budget to the Energy Department which...is a fairly unknown but super important IC member.
Wait, how exactly do French elections work? Is it like the NCAA tournament or something? Are we hoping for a 15-2 upset?
It's a two round process. There's an initial vote and then if no candidate gets a majority in the first round (never happens afaik) there is a follow-up run-off election between the top two candidates from the first round.
Aw, that is significantly less interesting than I was hoping for.
What if I lied and told you that there was a round before the voting where all the people who want to run for president have a brawl in an alley with rebar and steel pipes and only those able to walk away at the end get to appear on the ballot?