Ideally, they'll get more than 20 seats in the senate. Still waiting to see if the democrats retain two more seats and there are another 5 that the GOP holds. So looks good that we might get an outcome where the democrats have the chamber for the next 4 years regardless of who seats as the Lt. Governor and less likely to be throw for a loop if someone wins an election state wide of for Congress or has to leave.
Edit: So VA SBE site is back up. I'm really hoping it isn't bugged because it looks like Myers handily beat Knight in my district, which would be a democratic pick up and this was viewed as a lean R district. So that would be a very good sign for democrats.
Also as I was typing that out, democrats are projected to get a third flip in the Senate, still waiting for a call on two seats they already hold, but this is great news. I want that score to keep running up.
Anyways, doesn't look like will be rid of Nick Freitas anytime soon. Write-in is way more than what Ridgeway got. So the really question is how many of the write-in votes are going to actually go to the lazy fucker that is Nick Freitas because even though those have to be counted, doesn't mean they are all for him. It might be possible that a sizable chunk of other voters decided to write someone else in. Do have to wonder if we'll get to see Freitas fighting to claim some obvious write-ins, while close to his name aren't intended for him. One such variation on his name I wouldn't be surprised to see is Dick Fritos. Sadly, looking at the numbers, if that was cast by people that wanted him, he's probably getting re-elected.
Oh look at that, Ben Tribbett is confirming that the SBE site is not reliable. So who the fuck knows at this point in regards to anything he has called. I'm guessing he has a feed to something that isn't borked.
Oh look at that, Ben Tribbett is confirming that the SBE site is not reliable. So who the fuck knows at this point in regards to anything he has called. I'm guessing he has a feed to something that isn't borked.
On NBC12 they said the tallies are correct but the % reporting in are not.
Per Huffpost, "Ben Tribbett is currently CEO of Pinpoint Technology, a company that specializes in using new media to mobilize voter turnout. He also writes the “Not Larry Sabato” blog in Virginia- one of the largest state level blogs in the country since 2005. Prior to blogging Ben worked on over 25 different federal, state and local campaigns- including running a record of 7-1 defeating Republican incumbents as a Campaign Manager."
So in regards to HD30, assuming the write in stays at 4K more than the votes cast for Ridgeway. Not sure if they counted write-ins yet, which could skew things.
It's not a sure bet that this is in Freitas favor and it likely goes to court if he doesn't have exactly one more vote than Ridgeway that has been spelled correctly. From what I understand, in regards to misspellings they will be done case by case on intent and each county in his district may rule differently on misspelling. County A may decide a vote for Nick Freetas is a vote for Nick Freitas, but county B may decide that the vote is invalid. So there ton of potential for this to be a massive shit show.
Granted before any of this hits court, there needs to be enough potential write-ins that are clearly for Freitas or might be for him. There is no guarantee that all 14K+ write-ins are for Freitas in a way he wins this. There are three potential pitfalls for the fucker's chance.
-One, there was some bad blood coming out of the primary, where Freitas was accused of rigging the system in his favor. There is also bad blood between him and a few of the republicans running. I'll admit I haven't been paying a ton of attention to how things have been going in his district, but there is potential that a sizable chunk of those write-ins are for another conservative candidate.
-Two, in addition to getting spelling close enough, there is also the risk of people forgetting to put Nick Freitas down and being missed by their people at the polling station or being essentially ignored. Then seeing no republican on the ballot and writing in someone. There has already been one case of someone proudly talking about how they wrote in Donald Trump Jr. for a race that the GOP was pushing a write in candidate for. So yes, ironically, Donald Trump Jr. could be the cause for the GOP losing a seat. Very unlikely that piece of human scum would get enough votes to beat Ridgeway and even if he did, she'd still win since he would be deemed ineligible for the office. Yes, Virginia election law states that a write-in candidate can only win if they are eligible to sit in a seat.
-Three, there could be a ton of voters that weren't enchanting with either the democrats or republicans and wrote someone else in. Could be Mickey Mouse or could be a candidate for a third party that didn't make the ballot.
HD30 is in a weird spot. Thankfully, it looks like the democrats are taking the house without HD30. So we won't be waiting for weeks or months for a possible shit storm with it's own three ring circus to be sorted out. Thank god!
All the people that had access to none borked feeds to election results are apparently partying. So we'll have to wait a bit to figure out how many seats the democrats get to walk away with tonight. Though it looks like my district might be a flip if the SBE site can be believed. Myers has 1298 more votes than Knight with 25/26 precincts reporting. So optimistic.
Pretty much VA is going to be the next state to pass the ERA, which I do believe is short one state. So expect a flurry of activity over that. Sadly, we'll have to wait till next year for it to happen. No doubt they'll look into doing a better job with healthcare. I'm also hearing rumblings that there might be a stab at killing the shitty right to work laws. Finally, expect legislation to improve access to voting and gun control. I'm also hoping they'll take a look at the bullshit that is the whole toll road system, the Hampton Roads areas is about to end up with a setup where you can't get in or out of it without paying a toll and that's bullshit, given that the roads used didn't have tolls before, it's being handed to a shitty private company that clearly overcharges and rich fuckers need to start paying their fair share.
Had a damn good time officering the election. Solid turnout, with nearly all of our voting tables occupied all day - though the length of the ballot had something to do with that.
And WashPo and everyone else has declared for the Dems in VA. Its a good run and looks as if it will be 53 seats in the House and 21 in the Senate. 2 more not called that are leading towards the Dems but we will see.
This plus Kentucky has made tonight a good night.
I look forward to see what the Dems will do for the state next year.
Sad, looks like I'm stuck with Knight as my delegate. Though given this race was closer than expected, maybe it'll scare him shitless and make him less of an ass. I guess better luck unseating him in two years, barring nothing unexpected happening. Looks like the senate is going to be 21 democrats and 19 republicans. Right now the house of delegates appears to be 54 democrats and 46 republicans. Again this assumes no surprises, which seems mostly unlikely. HD30 is probably the only one that could still pop a major surprise. It's likely Freitas was successful in his write-in campaign, but there are a few ways for that to have gone pear shaped on him. I do have to wonder how long his career is going to last at this point because there is a high chance of the results for HD30 going to court and his district possibly not having a vote at the start of the next session if things drag out long enough. It's worth stating that while intent will be considered, each county's board of elections has it's own digression on making calls. So Nick Freitas is going to have to hope all his voters put exactly that on the ballot or it's likely to get challenged in court if it could be the difference between him being seated or unseated.
Edit: Also worth pointing out that democrats held all the seats they were defending. So this bodes rather ill for the GOP going forward because the state is on track to only go bluer. So some of the races that were close this year, that weren't expected to be close this time around, are likely to be hotly contested in 2021 if trends hold.
I suspect an analysis will show that they would have held the House without the new districts, and their strategy will be doubling down on gerrymandering in other states
I suspect an analysis will show that they would have held the House without the new districts, and their strategy will be doubling down on gerrymandering in other states
Just knowing some of the districts that were redrawn it seems to have helped Dems but really the story is similar to 2017 and 2018. Loss of support in places like suburbs and college educated whites and women.
Hard to say, if the old maps would have saved them. As Mazzyx pointed out, a fair bit of what took them down this time, was essentially the same factors that let the democrats walk away with 15 news seats and only being denied a 16th one because of bullshit. I mean, it was suspected they'd get the Senate under the old map.
That said, I fully expect the GOP will probably look at the numbers and push even harder to be allowed to gerrymandered the maps in all the states they still control because the data might indicate that their future minority in the VA Legislature would have been a touch bigger under the old maps.
The only candidate Trump endorsed by name, Republican Geary Higgins, was handily defeated in a contest for a northern Virginia Senate district that was previously held by the GOP.
Assuming everything stands (and one of them is by 18 votes, so that's not a sure thing), it's 21-19 in the Senate, 55-45 in the House. Next closest Senate seat was four of the Senate seats were kept R by less than 5%.
Assuming everything stands (and one of them is by 18 votes, so that's not a sure thing), it's 21-19 in the Senate, 55-45 in the House. Next closest Senate seat was four of the Senate seats were kept R by less than 5%.
Does Virginia have the same "VG votes in case of Senate Tie" like the Federal Government does?
Because if the Senate is split because of another fucking lottery, and passage needs a majority, and there's no tiebreak, and so it's Republican obstructionism by default....
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
Assuming everything stands (and one of them is by 18 votes, so that's not a sure thing), it's 21-19 in the Senate, 55-45 in the House. Next closest Senate seat was four of the Senate seats were kept R by less than 5%.
Does Virginia have the same "VG votes in case of Senate Tie" like the Federal Government does?
Because if the Senate is split because of another fucking lottery, and passage needs a majority, and there's no tiebreak, and so it's Republican obstructionism by default....
we do, so even if it’s 20-20 dems would effectively control the state senate
Allegedly a voice of reason.
+5
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
of note, Danica Roem is now the first trans person ever to be re-elected to a state legislature
Pretty much VA is going to be the next state to pass the ERA, which I do believe is short one state.
Unfortunately, no.
The following states still need to ratify it: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arizona, Utah.
And the following states did ratify it, but then "rescinded" that ratification: Kentucky, Tennessee, Idaho, Nebraska.
Pretty much VA is going to be the next state to pass the ERA, which I do believe is short one state.
Unfortunately, no.
The following states still need to ratify it: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arizona, Utah.
And the following states did ratify it, but then "rescinded" that ratification: Kentucky, Tennessee, Idaho, Nebraska.
Last I checked it put its up to 38 which is the ratification threshold.. Not all 50 must ratify it. The Constitution is silent on rescinding ratification. So technically this puts it up as ratified at least once. Now that may lead to some court proceedings if you can ratify and de-ratify an amendment as really there is no procedure for that.
Pretty much VA is going to be the next state to pass the ERA, which I do believe is short one state.
Unfortunately, no.
The following states still need to ratify it: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arizona, Utah.
And the following states did ratify it, but then "rescinded" that ratification: Kentucky, Tennessee, Idaho, Nebraska.
Virginia would be the 39th, and last state that needs to ratify it. Once they do, it's officially an Amendment.
Pretty much VA is going to be the next state to pass the ERA, which I do believe is short one state.
Unfortunately, no.
The following states still need to ratify it: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arizona, Utah.
And the following states did ratify it, but then "rescinded" that ratification: Kentucky, Tennessee, Idaho, Nebraska.
Virginia would be the 39th, and last state that needs to ratify it. Once they do, it's officially an Amendment.
There would be several years of court cases trying to figure out if ratification deadlines are legal or not, along with the question about rescinding ratification.
A quick read says that the courts usually treat the amendment process under the "political question" doctrine, which more or less means they take Congress at their word and don't mess with it much.
We would need Congress to pass a law removing/extending the deadline and saying how to deal with the old ones.
sadly the asshat known as Freitas managed to win the write in. I'm wondering how many of his voters are starting to regret it because the shit weasel was already making plans to run in the GOP primary for V07.
First a good reminder shit like this takes forever. 10 years is the current estimate but the goal is to lead to hourly passenger trains between DC and Richmond and a doubling of other commuter trains increasing rail access between the two cities. VA will own a bunch of new tracks as well.
Overall a really good deal for VA. The more we move away from cars on the 95 corridor the better. Though it is going to take forever.
+16
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ChanusHarbinger of the Spicy Rooster ApocalypseThe Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered Userregular
First a good reminder shit like this takes forever. 10 years is the current estimate but the goal is to lead to hourly passenger trains between DC and Richmond and a doubling of other commuter trains increasing rail access between the two cities. VA will own a bunch of new tracks as well.
Overall a really good deal for VA. The more we move away from cars on the 95 corridor the better. Though it is going to take forever.
the best part of this for me is the recognition, finally, that the path to success is north to DC and up the east coast, not south to Atlanta
the sheer idiocy of rail transportation policy in virginia fighting for years to build a southern business corridor while it remains about the same cost between rail and flying from richmond to DC has been unbelievable to me
Posts
And they did.
e: Your edit beat me :P
e2: Hold that thought.
Wasserman just projected it for Simonds (D).
https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1191892345857466368
Anyways, doesn't look like will be rid of Nick Freitas anytime soon. Write-in is way more than what Ridgeway got. So the really question is how many of the write-in votes are going to actually go to the lazy fucker that is Nick Freitas because even though those have to be counted, doesn't mean they are all for him. It might be possible that a sizable chunk of other voters decided to write someone else in. Do have to wonder if we'll get to see Freitas fighting to claim some obvious write-ins, while close to his name aren't intended for him. One such variation on his name I wouldn't be surprised to see is Dick Fritos. Sadly, looking at the numbers, if that was cast by people that wanted him, he's probably getting re-elected.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
On NBC12 they said the tallies are correct but the % reporting in are not.
Probably my last post for the eve. It hasn't been called yet, but the House is trending to flip as well. Congrats, folks!
Per Huffpost, "Ben Tribbett is currently CEO of Pinpoint Technology, a company that specializes in using new media to mobilize voter turnout. He also writes the “Not Larry Sabato” blog in Virginia- one of the largest state level blogs in the country since 2005. Prior to blogging Ben worked on over 25 different federal, state and local campaigns- including running a record of 7-1 defeating Republican incumbents as a Campaign Manager."
It's not a sure bet that this is in Freitas favor and it likely goes to court if he doesn't have exactly one more vote than Ridgeway that has been spelled correctly. From what I understand, in regards to misspellings they will be done case by case on intent and each county in his district may rule differently on misspelling. County A may decide a vote for Nick Freetas is a vote for Nick Freitas, but county B may decide that the vote is invalid. So there ton of potential for this to be a massive shit show.
Granted before any of this hits court, there needs to be enough potential write-ins that are clearly for Freitas or might be for him. There is no guarantee that all 14K+ write-ins are for Freitas in a way he wins this. There are three potential pitfalls for the fucker's chance.
-One, there was some bad blood coming out of the primary, where Freitas was accused of rigging the system in his favor. There is also bad blood between him and a few of the republicans running. I'll admit I haven't been paying a ton of attention to how things have been going in his district, but there is potential that a sizable chunk of those write-ins are for another conservative candidate.
-Two, in addition to getting spelling close enough, there is also the risk of people forgetting to put Nick Freitas down and being missed by their people at the polling station or being essentially ignored. Then seeing no republican on the ballot and writing in someone. There has already been one case of someone proudly talking about how they wrote in Donald Trump Jr. for a race that the GOP was pushing a write in candidate for. So yes, ironically, Donald Trump Jr. could be the cause for the GOP losing a seat. Very unlikely that piece of human scum would get enough votes to beat Ridgeway and even if he did, she'd still win since he would be deemed ineligible for the office. Yes, Virginia election law states that a write-in candidate can only win if they are eligible to sit in a seat.
-Three, there could be a ton of voters that weren't enchanting with either the democrats or republicans and wrote someone else in. Could be Mickey Mouse or could be a candidate for a third party that didn't make the ballot.
HD30 is in a weird spot. Thankfully, it looks like the democrats are taking the house without HD30. So we won't be waiting for weeks or months for a possible shit storm with it's own three ring circus to be sorted out. Thank god!
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
at the moment 99% reporting and the dem is ahead by 0.5% and looks like its likely to just stay that way...!
anyway 100% reported and although its a bit squeaky - only 0.3% - looks like kentucky now has a democrat as its governor...
Wonder if they'll force a recount
Edit: AP says too close to call, so I'm guessing recount
Pretty much VA is going to be the next state to pass the ERA, which I do believe is short one state. So expect a flurry of activity over that. Sadly, we'll have to wait till next year for it to happen. No doubt they'll look into doing a better job with healthcare. I'm also hearing rumblings that there might be a stab at killing the shitty right to work laws. Finally, expect legislation to improve access to voting and gun control. I'm also hoping they'll take a look at the bullshit that is the whole toll road system, the Hampton Roads areas is about to end up with a setup where you can't get in or out of it without paying a toll and that's bullshit, given that the roads used didn't have tolls before, it's being handed to a shitty private company that clearly overcharges and rich fuckers need to start paying their fair share.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Had a damn good time officering the election. Solid turnout, with nearly all of our voting tables occupied all day - though the length of the ballot had something to do with that.
Ed: also, holy shit my feet are en fuego.
Steam: Elvenshae // PSN: Elvenshae // WotC: Elvenshae
Wilds of Aladrion: [https://forums.penny-arcade.com/discussion/comment/43159014/#Comment_43159014]Ellandryn[/url]
This plus Kentucky has made tonight a good night.
I look forward to see what the Dems will do for the state next year.
At this point the list can include:
1. ERA
2. $15 minimum wage
3. Gun control
Edit: Also worth pointing out that democrats held all the seats they were defending. So this bodes rather ill for the GOP going forward because the state is on track to only go bluer. So some of the races that were close this year, that weren't expected to be close this time around, are likely to be hotly contested in 2021 if trends hold.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
Just knowing some of the districts that were redrawn it seems to have helped Dems but really the story is similar to 2017 and 2018. Loss of support in places like suburbs and college educated whites and women.
That said, I fully expect the GOP will probably look at the numbers and push even harder to be allowed to gerrymandered the maps in all the states they still control because the data might indicate that their future minority in the VA Legislature would have been a touch bigger under the old maps.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
*sideeyes 2016 Presidential Election, in particular Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin*
Yeah, those people need to seriously shut the fuck up.
Does Virginia have the same "VG votes in case of Senate Tie" like the Federal Government does?
Because if the Senate is split because of another fucking lottery, and passage needs a majority, and there's no tiebreak, and so it's Republican obstructionism by default....
we do, so even if it’s 20-20 dems would effectively control the state senate
Good job Virginia
Unfortunately, no.
The following states still need to ratify it: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arizona, Utah.
And the following states did ratify it, but then "rescinded" that ratification: Kentucky, Tennessee, Idaho, Nebraska.
Last I checked it put its up to 38 which is the ratification threshold.. Not all 50 must ratify it. The Constitution is silent on rescinding ratification. So technically this puts it up as ratified at least once. Now that may lead to some court proceedings if you can ratify and de-ratify an amendment as really there is no procedure for that.
Virginia would be the 39th, and last state that needs to ratify it. Once they do, it's officially an Amendment.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
There would be several years of court cases trying to figure out if ratification deadlines are legal or not, along with the question about rescinding ratification.
A quick read says that the courts usually treat the amendment process under the "political question" doctrine, which more or less means they take Congress at their word and don't mess with it much.
We would need Congress to pass a law removing/extending the deadline and saying how to deal with the old ones.
I really like this
The speaker is a Jewish woman. The house majority leader is an African American woman.
In other news, the GOP Senate Caucus isn't going to be 19 members, despite 19 republicans winning elections. Sen Amanda Chase, a known wingnut, has left the caucus.
battletag: Millin#1360
Nice chart to figure out how honest a news source is.
First a good reminder shit like this takes forever. 10 years is the current estimate but the goal is to lead to hourly passenger trains between DC and Richmond and a doubling of other commuter trains increasing rail access between the two cities. VA will own a bunch of new tracks as well.
Overall a really good deal for VA. The more we move away from cars on the 95 corridor the better. Though it is going to take forever.
the best part of this for me is the recognition, finally, that the path to success is north to DC and up the east coast, not south to Atlanta
the sheer idiocy of rail transportation policy in virginia fighting for years to build a southern business corridor while it remains about the same cost between rail and flying from richmond to DC has been unbelievable to me