Selzer has Greenfield down 4 in Iowa, dammit. 46-42 so there's hope, but not good. Dunno what happened in that race to have people rally around Ernst. Might have been people thinking Biden is going to win? Because Americans are idiots and don't want anything to actually happen.
Selzer has Greenfield down 4 in Iowa, dammit. 46-42 so there's hope, but not good. Dunno what happened in that race to have people rally around Ernst. Might have been people thinking Biden is going to win? Because Americans are idiots and don't want anything to actually happen.
Nate Cohn is an election writer for the NYT's Upshot
Boy I don’t like this at alll...
I was feeling really great about the election, and outliers certainly can and do happen, but man this feels like a dagger in the heart.
Yeah. Like I literally made a post earlier today about the moment things started feeling “wrong” in 2016 and man this feels similar
Edit: One caveat.. I was super worried Trump would win 2016. I was one of the few people here and in my in person world who felt that. In a way I didn’t feel at all this time. So, it’s not quite the same, but it has the same oh shit feeling.
Last time it was “oh shit I was right” this time it’s “oh shit maybe I’m wrong”
I mean, let’s just get everyone left that hasn’t voted yet to the polls safely and in large numbers. Best I can do is encourage people from afar via internet and phone but if you know anyone that needs a ride or just some company while waiting in line, commit yourself to be that helper. The Saturday night before the election is not the time to throw your hands up and give in to fascists. Go!
+2
Options
TetraNitroCubaneThe DjinneratorAt the bottom of a bottleRegistered Userregular
I'm hoping the high turnout numbers make things different this time around, but man, this is feeling spooky at this point.
Look at it this way: Trump +7 in Iowa would still be 2.4 points behind where he ran last time. A 2.4-point swing against trump would result in Biden winning 308 EVs
Iowa isn’t going to be the state that decides this election
The concern is more that last time the late Iowa poll was indicative of a midwest shift. Probably not this time, but possible.
re Senate: a surprising number of people vote for divided government deliberately so Trump being a tire fire in the polls might be adding some headwinds to the Dem senators..
Iowa isn’t going to be the state that decides this election
The concern is more that last time the late Iowa poll was indicative of a midwest shift. Probably not this time, but possible.
re Senate: a surprising number of people vote for divided government deliberately so Trump being a tire fire in the polls might be adding some headwinds to the Dem senators..
For a while we were in this beautiful situation where most people thought Trump was going to win even though he was on his way to a loss...so they were voting for Democratic Senators to restrain his worst impulses.
Swing voters!
enlightenedbum on
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Iowa isn’t going to be the state that decides this election
The concern is more that last time the late Iowa poll was indicative of a midwest shift. Probably not this time, but possible.
re Senate: a surprising number of people vote for divided government deliberately so Trump being a tire fire in the polls might be adding some headwinds to the Dem senators..
I’ve got enough to worry about without looking at polls and extrapolating them to mean something about other states
Biden is well ahead in every state he needs to be to win
All this to say, it’s not over yet, don’t relax, but don’t let one poll in a state we don’t even need keep you awake
Look at it this way: Trump +7 in Iowa would still be 2.4 points behind where he ran last time. A 2.4-point swing against trump would result in Biden winning 308 EVs
This is true. Like if you apply the “what if polls were as wrong” logic
Well Iowa was waaay more wrong than PA. With Maine being even more wrong somehow? But the point is Iowa isn’t PA.
The spookiness is Driven a LOT by the fact it was the identical last polling in Iowa that year not by the poll itself
Look at it this way: Trump +7 in Iowa would still be 2.4 points behind where he ran last time. A 2.4-point swing against trump would result in Biden winning 308 EVs
This is true. Like if you apply the “what if polls were as wrong” logic
Well Iowa was waaay more wrong than PA. With Maine being even more wrong somehow? But the point is Iowa isn’t PA.
The spookiness is Driven a LOT by the fact it was the identical last polling in Iowa that year not by the poll itself
Cohn's write up is useful here in the ways in which it this is different. Other polls were seeing similar things to Selzer four years ago. They're not this time. So it's more likely this is an outlier from a good pollster than that everyone else is wrong.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Selzer has Greenfield down 4 in Iowa, dammit. 46-42 so there's hope, but not good. Dunno what happened in that race to have people rally around Ernst. Might have been people thinking Biden is going to win? Because Americans are idiots and don't want anything to actually happen.
Nate Cohn is an election writer for the NYT's Upshot
I hate this and I want to remind everyone not to spend the next 24 hours freaking out over it
It is deliberately written as clickbaity as possible. 2016 is not 2020, one poll in Iowa does not magically mean that actually the race has flipped by 10 points across the midwest just because there was a similar poll in Iowa last election, and while Clinton had a good national lead, we could see in the local polling at the time that she had problems with certain must-win states (and also even then Trump managed to scootch in by the seat of his pants). Those same indicators are not present this year.
Like, not to say to relax because the election is over or anything, but
Clickbait headline's gonna clickbait
Kana on
A trap is for fish: when you've got the fish, you can forget the trap. A snare is for rabbits: when you've got the rabbit, you can forget the snare. Words are for meaning: when you've got the meaning, you can forget the words.
Aw, a real nervous friend of mine is doing phone-banking tomorrow! They had a great time at the call training, the person doing it dressed up and had an adorable dog that was also dressed up.
Look at it this way: Trump +7 in Iowa would still be 2.4 points behind where he ran last time. A 2.4-point swing against trump would result in Biden winning 308 EVs
This is true. Like if you apply the “what if polls were as wrong” logic
Well Iowa was waaay more wrong than PA. With Maine being even more wrong somehow? But the point is Iowa isn’t PA.
The spookiness is Driven a LOT by the fact it was the identical last polling in Iowa that year not by the poll itself
Cohn's write up is useful here in the ways in which it this is different. Other polls were seeing similar things to Selzer four years ago. They're not this time. So it's more likely this is an outlier from a good pollster than that everyone else is wrong.
The write-up is good, but slightly concerning with his subtext on the PA section: guessing their poll there will have Biden leading, but showing tightening tomorrow.
i don't think that's unreasonable even though i also don't think whether or not black lives matter should be a political issue
Basically. Same way pride flags are political, even if they shouldn’t be. As long as one party explicitly opposes these things, either recognizing that black lives matter or that LGBTQ individuals are equal, it remains a partisan political symbol.
Works for me, honestly. Let them continue to loudly shout from the wrong side of history. Makes them look worse, and makes it easier to spot the trash golems.
That said, it does indeed mean that these symbols have no place on an election site. Much like the blue line flags. In theory, supporting police officers is a nonpartisan statement. In practice...yeah. Hard to ban one and not the other and I don’t want to see ANY of that shit at polling places.
Serious question for people who live in areas of the country where confederate flags used to fly a lot: are you seeing fewer confederate flags? Because I suspect that the thin blue line flag is becoming the new more "socially acceptable" confederate flag.
Yes.
Confederate flags can still be found here and there, usually attached to rather old pickup trucks that also fly a giant obnoxious TRUMP flag.
Higher-end trucks and SUVs tend to have the TBL flag as a bumper sticker, optionally with a Trump bumper sticker (it's maybe 50/50).
This is in Alabama suburbia.
Tennessee native here.
Agreed on all of the above. Definitely still see it.
The best ones are the people I've seen flying a confederate flag *and* an American flag at the same time.
Students of history, these people are not.
PAFC Top 10 Finisher in Seasons 1 and 3. 2nd in Seasons 4 and 5. Final 4 in Season 6.
Look at it this way: Trump +7 in Iowa would still be 2.4 points behind where he ran last time. A 2.4-point swing against trump would result in Biden winning 308 EVs
This is true. Like if you apply the “what if polls were as wrong” logic
Well Iowa was waaay more wrong than PA. With Maine being even more wrong somehow? But the point is Iowa isn’t PA.
The spookiness is Driven a LOT by the fact it was the identical last polling in Iowa that year not by the poll itself
Cohn's write up is useful here in the ways in which it this is different. Other polls were seeing similar things to Selzer four years ago. They're not this time. So it's more likely this is an outlier from a good pollster than that everyone else is wrong.
The write-up is good, but slightly concerning with his subtext on the PA section: guessing their poll there will have Biden leading, but showing tightening tomorrow.
Their last one was +9, so yeah it'll show not that. I'd guess 6.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Posts
I was feeling really great about the election, and outliers certainly can and do happen, but man this feels like a dagger in the heart.
Yeah. Like I literally made a post earlier today about the moment things started feeling “wrong” in 2016 and man this feels similar
Edit: One caveat.. I was super worried Trump would win 2016. I was one of the few people here and in my in person world who felt that. In a way I didn’t feel at all this time. So, it’s not quite the same, but it has the same oh shit feeling.
Last time it was “oh shit I was right” this time it’s “oh shit maybe I’m wrong”
He has already killed people with his superspreader rallies.
And not in the good Halloween way.
It is only one poll. And the next best result for Trump from a decent pollster in October was...down 5 in WIsconsin?
The concern is more that last time the late Iowa poll was indicative of a midwest shift. Probably not this time, but possible.
re Senate: a surprising number of people vote for divided government deliberately so Trump being a tire fire in the polls might be adding some headwinds to the Dem senators..
For a while we were in this beautiful situation where most people thought Trump was going to win even though he was on his way to a loss...so they were voting for Democratic Senators to restrain his worst impulses.
Swing voters!
I’ve got enough to worry about without looking at polls and extrapolating them to mean something about other states
Biden is well ahead in every state he needs to be to win
All this to say, it’s not over yet, don’t relax, but don’t let one poll in a state we don’t even need keep you awake
Well Iowa was waaay more wrong than PA. With Maine being even more wrong somehow? But the point is Iowa isn’t PA.
The spookiness is Driven a LOT by the fact it was the identical last polling in Iowa that year not by the poll itself
Cohn's write up is useful here in the ways in which it this is different. Other polls were seeing similar things to Selzer four years ago. They're not this time. So it's more likely this is an outlier from a good pollster than that everyone else is wrong.
I hate this and I want to remind everyone not to spend the next 24 hours freaking out over it
It is deliberately written as clickbaity as possible. 2016 is not 2020, one poll in Iowa does not magically mean that actually the race has flipped by 10 points across the midwest just because there was a similar poll in Iowa last election, and while Clinton had a good national lead, we could see in the local polling at the time that she had problems with certain must-win states (and also even then Trump managed to scootch in by the seat of his pants). Those same indicators are not present this year.
Like, not to say to relax because the election is over or anything, but
Clickbait headline's gonna clickbait
The Texas GOP response to questions about the Biden bus incident is to show exactly how deep down the rabbit hole they have gone.
The write-up is good, but slightly concerning with his subtext on the PA section: guessing their poll there will have Biden leading, but showing tightening tomorrow.
Tennessee native here.
Agreed on all of the above. Definitely still see it.
The best ones are the people I've seen flying a confederate flag *and* an American flag at the same time.
Students of history, these people are not.
Like the response of your, what, state-level campaign chairman is indistinguisable from some 14-year old chud on reddit?
Also on Steam and PSN: twobadcats
The 14-year-old chud is some kid parroting his father. This is how they talk in their culture.
Their last one was +9, so yeah it'll show not that. I'd guess 6.
It's knocked the average for PA down to 4.7, which is knocking on margin of error territory.
Scary, but also seems like a hell of an outlier.
EDIT: Yeah, they are.