If China's economy goes fully belly-up and drags the world with it, the Democratic nominee is going to have an uphill battle no matter WHO the Republicans nominate.
Like they always say, "Only Nixon can go to China."
Well, Hillary is as close as we've got to Nixon. Though he was a little farther left than she is.
This is ridiculous bullshit. Among other things, he appointed the justices who eviscerated Brown. Nixon's Congresses were more liberal economically than she is, arguably.
Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
Isn't it pretty clear we're headed to another crash and or recession right now?
no. economics is never pretty clear on anything, and doubly so when trying to predict the future. even if we were in a recession right now we wouldn't know about it for months.
Isn't it pretty clear we're headed to another crash and or recession right now?
No? I mean there isn't a crisis like the sub prime lending or anything like that looming in the US at least.
Yeah, China's economy going south isn't necessarily going to have much of an effect on the USA because of how the trade relationship works. They need us more than we need them basically.
If China's economy goes fully belly-up and drags the world with it, the Democratic nominee is going to have an uphill battle no matter WHO the Republicans nominate.
Like they always say, "Only Nixon can go to China."
Well, Hillary is as close as we've got to Nixon. Though he was a little farther left than she is.
This is ridiculous bullshit. Among other things, he appointed the justices who eviscerated Brown. Nixon's Congresses were more liberal economically than she is, arguably.
Only Nixon could go to China because he made sure nobody else could do it through his earlier actions as a politician.
Isn't it pretty clear we're headed to another crash and or recession right now?
No? I mean there isn't a crisis like the sub prime lending or anything like that looming in the US at least.
Yeah, China's economy going south isn't necessarily going to have much of an effect on the USA because of how the trade relationship works. They need us more than we need them basically.
If China's economy goes fully belly-up and drags the world with it, the Democratic nominee is going to have an uphill battle no matter WHO the Republicans nominate.
Like they always say, "Only Nixon can go to China."
Well, Hillary is as close as we've got to Nixon. Though he was a little farther left than she is.
This is ridiculous bullshit. Among other things, he appointed the justices who eviscerated Brown. Nixon's Congresses were more liberal economically than she is, arguably.
Only Nixon could go to China because he made sure nobody else could do it through his earlier actions as a politician.
The bolded has been my read on it, but I'm not an economist and the stock market has been shitting its pants, but when do they not shit their pants?
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
The fluctuations of the stock market continues to be the worst possible thing to base any political or public policy decisions off of.
The crazy thing is that one reason the market is down are oil prices dropping, but for most of the country that drives or buys things shipped to them, that's like great news.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Sub-prime lending is happening again, under a new name (I can't remember what they're calling it now). Just not as widely as it was back in '06. I fully anticipate another crash in the next half decade (and maybe we'll actually do something about it this time). But probably not this year.
As for the China thing, the primary impact would be what we've been seeing already this year: China going down MASSIVELY drops demand for oil, so the price of oil tanks. This would have employment impact in places heavily invested in oil (Texas, northern plains states, Canada's Alberta), which could have some other impacts.
Isn't it pretty clear we're headed to another crash and or recession right now?
no. economics is never pretty clear on anything, and doubly so when trying to predict the future. even if we were in a recession right now we wouldn't know about it for months.
TBF that is because the very definition of a recession involves multiple quarters of negative growth. It's certainly possible to measure the same stats on a shorter timeline, but it then becomes less meaningful. Recessions do happen relatively frequently though, so we should be due for one soon, probably before the decade is out
Sub-prime lending is happening again, under a new name (I can't remember what they're calling it now). Just not as widely as it was back in '06. I fully anticipate another crash in the next half decade (and maybe we'll actually do something about it this time). But probably not this year.
As for the China thing, the primary impact would be what we've been seeing already this year: China going down MASSIVELY drops demand for oil, so the price of oil tanks. This would have employment impact in places heavily invested in oil (Texas, northern plains states, Canada's Alberta), which could have some other impacts.
I swear I recalled oil going down hurts the oil industry but also counter boosts others like I said shipping and by extension store prices because its cheaper to ship things. At least that was the analysis the last time oil fell before it shot back up like a rocket.
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Sub-prime lending is happening again, under a new name (I can't remember what they're calling it now). Just not as widely as it was back in '06. I fully anticipate another crash in the next half decade (and maybe we'll actually do something about it this time). But probably not this year.
As for the China thing, the primary impact would be what we've been seeing already this year: China going down MASSIVELY drops demand for oil, so the price of oil tanks. This would have employment impact in places heavily invested in oil (Texas, northern plains states, Canada's Alberta), which could have some other impacts.
I swear I recalled oil going down hurts the oil industry but also counter boosts others like I said shipping and by extension store prices because its cheaper to ship things. At least that was the analysis the last time oil fell before it shot back up like a rocket.
Yeah, that's what I'd EXPECT to happen, but I don't even know what the fuck anymore.
There's a few industries hurt by it (mostly fracking companies, because they cost too much to operate). There's some adjacent businesses also impacted, because - for example - my dad's old silica mining company, before he retired, got into the "selling tools used for fracking" business. Apparently, since the price of oil went down, THEIR demand went down, so they're not doing great, either. Similarly, I'd expect solar companies to not be doing so well, as a competing product.
But yeah, I don't really get it when it comes to the whole economy. (Not that I'm expecting prices to actually go down because shipping prices are going down).
My sister just called me and we talked about politics which is like unheard of because she's a country club republican and she said she was really afraid of the Trump win in NH
I tried assuaging her using a softer form of that Schwarzenegger / lack of ideological loyalty piece and she seemed to buy it and we ended it with a mutual agreement of Fuck Cruz before seguing into a Sanders/Clinton discussion
It was quite interesting
"and the morning stars I have seen
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
Isn't it pretty clear we're headed to another crash and or recession right now?
No? I mean there isn't a crisis like the sub prime lending or anything like that looming in the US at least.
Yeah, China's economy going south isn't necessarily going to have much of an effect on the USA because of how the trade relationship works. They need us more than we need them basically.
Considering China is basically the US's manufacturing center, a downturn in China's economy wouldn't really hurt the US. May even help, sadly, as already low wages in China could drop even lower and what little regulations there are could be reduced even further making it even cheaper to produce shit in China and then ship it to the US. In the end, US business doesn't care if the chinese workers can or can not afford the junk they're making, it's all being packaged and shipped out of country anyway.
Of course, this all goes out the window if it gets so bad that there is no way to safely and cheaply manufacturer goods there. See: Somalia
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AtomikaLive fast and get fucked or whateverRegistered Userregular
"I'm not getting any pressure from our millions of supporters (to leave the race). I'm getting a lot of pressure to make sure I stay in the race," Carson told CNN's Jake Tapper
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VariableMouth CongressStroke Me Lady FameRegistered Userregular
Good to know, though it really does say something about a person when you read a satire piece about them and are not immediately aware that they did not, in fact, say or do the thing being satired.
I know this is sort of off topic but I really hate this sentiment and don't exactly think it's valuable
no, it's not a comment on fiorina that you dislike her enough to believe anything you read about her
it's not a comment on obama when people believe he's a muslim either
Good to know, though it really does say something about a person when you read a satire piece about them and are not immediately aware that they did not, in fact, say or do the thing being satired.
I know this is sort of off topic but I really hate this sentiment and don't exactly think it's valuable
no, it's not a comment on fiorina that you dislike her enough to believe anything you read about her
it's not a comment on obama when people believe he's a muslim either
It's most definitely a comment when a person can't tell the difference between a candidate and a supposedly satirized version of that candidate. It has nothing to do with like or dislike.
Sub-prime lending is happening again, under a new name (I can't remember what they're calling it now). Just not as widely as it was back in '06. I fully anticipate another crash in the next half decade (and maybe we'll actually do something about it this time). But probably not this year.
As for the China thing, the primary impact would be what we've been seeing already this year: China going down MASSIVELY drops demand for oil, so the price of oil tanks. This would have employment impact in places heavily invested in oil (Texas, northern plains states, Canada's Alberta), which could have some other impacts.
Oil prices are down because OPEC has the floodgates open. They're out to hurt the weaker oil producing countries and drive them out of business. Saudi officials have said as much. They don't see any reason to stabilize prices only to lose market share. Otherwise you would have seen supply cutbacks to mirror the demand dropoff so that prices remained stable.
"I'm not getting any pressure from our millions of supporters (to leave the race). I'm getting a lot of pressure to make sure I stay in the race," Carson told CNN's Jake Tapper
"Our millions of supporters" is an odd way to refer to one's book publisher.
It is a lot more of a comment on the person who can't the difference than it is the satiree.
It depends entirely on the person being satired and how. I could probably absolutely tell the difference between Kasich and some satirized version. But I bombed a test trying to tell if a statement was made by Trump or Lucille Bluth. Which strikes me as being far more the fault of what Trump says than whether or not I make unfair assessments of him.
"I'm not getting any pressure from our millions of supporters (to leave the race). I'm getting a lot of pressure to make sure I stay in the race," Carson told CNN's Jake Tapper
"Our millions of supporters" is an odd way to refer to one's book publisher.
Isn't it pretty clear we're headed to another crash and or recession right now?
no. economics is never pretty clear on anything, and doubly so when trying to predict the future. even if we were in a recession right now we wouldn't know about it for months.
Seriously I love reading economics papers there's always a slight air of f
It is a lot more of a comment on the person who can't the difference than it is the satiree.
It depends entirely on the person being satired and how. I could probably absolutely tell the difference between Kasich and some satirized version. But I bombed a test trying to tell if a statement was made by Trump or Lucille Bluth. Which strikes me as being far more the fault of what Trump says than whether or not I make unfair assessments of him.
Except Trump is cartoonishly evil, and makes no apologies for that fact... Because he's cartoonishly evil.
So now we have a battle between Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Cruz, and Trump?
...Do any of the three "establishment" candidates have a shot against Cruz or Trump (maybe if two drop out and rally behind the third)? It would be hilarious if Bush ended up winning this.
So now we have a battle between Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Cruz, and Trump?
...Do any of the three "establishment" candidates have a shot against Cruz or Trump (maybe if two drop out and rally behind the third)? It would be hilarious if Bush ended up winning this.
It's possible one of them would have a shot if the other two dropped out.
So now we have a battle between Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Cruz, and Trump?
...Do any of the three "establishment" candidates have a shot against Cruz or Trump (maybe if two drop out and rally behind the third)? It would be hilarious if Bush ended up winning this.
All three of the establishment candidates would have a shot if the other two dropped out, Cruz stayed in the race, and the establishment supporters didn't split unfavorably. Before the terrible NH debate I would have said Rubio has the best shot given those conditions, but none of them are really great; Jeb! is a punching bag that drives up Trump's numbers, Rubio exposes his circuits in the spotlight, and Kasich has no way to win red states (though I suspect he'll do well in blue states).
Sub-prime lending is happening again, under a new name (I can't remember what they're calling it now). Just not as widely as it was back in '06. I fully anticipate another crash in the next half decade (and maybe we'll actually do something about it this time). But probably not this year.
As for the China thing, the primary impact would be what we've been seeing already this year: China going down MASSIVELY drops demand for oil, so the price of oil tanks. This would have employment impact in places heavily invested in oil (Texas, northern plains states, Canada's Alberta), which could have some other impacts.
Sub-prime lending didn't crash the economy. Wide-spread fraud by financial institutions while insuring and repackaging said loans are what crashed the economy. I'm hoping that's a trick that only works once, but I guess we'll see.
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IlpalaJust this guy, y'knowTexasRegistered Userregular
So now we have a battle between Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Cruz, and Trump?
...Do any of the three "establishment" candidates have a shot against Cruz or Trump (maybe if two drop out and rally behind the third)? It would be hilarious if Bush ended up winning this.
Gilmore!
I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.
Jeb really doesn't seem like he actually wants to be the President of the US. Given the current political climate, I don't really blame him, either. He seems smart enough to know that it's basically a shit sandwich, and his family is rich and successful enough that he has plenty of other things he could do. That's even paraphrasing him.
I'm not sure why he's running at this point. To hear talk radio tell it, Hannity etc. seem to think Jeb is only running to prove that it's possible to win without "the base" (ie, teaparty folks who are now completely off the reservation, and coincidentally talk radio's target demo). If that was the true experiment, first of all I have to give respect to the man for trying to pull the party closer to a reasonable approximation of the center. Ultimately, I don't think the genie goes back into the bottle on this one. Either the Republican party overall keeps shifting right, or teapers slit off into their own party.
I don't see the right splitting like that, so we're just going to have to deal with a further right shift... Which seems very likely to give us Donald Trump on the general election ballot.
So now we have a battle between Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Cruz, and Trump?
...Do any of the three "establishment" candidates have a shot against Cruz or Trump (maybe if two drop out and rally behind the third)? It would be hilarious if Bush ended up winning this.
All three of the establishment candidates would have a shot if the other two dropped out, Cruz stayed in the race, and the establishment supporters didn't split unfavorably. Before the terrible NH debate I would have said Rubio has the best shot given those conditions, but none of them are really great; Jeb! is a punching bag that drives up Trump's numbers, Rubio exposes his circuits in the spotlight, and Kasich has no way to win red states (though I suspect he'll do well in blue states).
The only people who thought Rubio actually had a shot were the media, and maybe Rubio's wife.
So now we have a battle between Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Cruz, and Trump?
...Do any of the three "establishment" candidates have a shot against Cruz or Trump (maybe if two drop out and rally behind the third)? It would be hilarious if Bush ended up winning this.
All three of the establishment candidates would have a shot if the other two dropped out, Cruz stayed in the race, and the establishment supporters didn't split unfavorably. Before the terrible NH debate I would have said Rubio has the best shot given those conditions, but none of them are really great; Jeb! is a punching bag that drives up Trump's numbers, Rubio exposes his circuits in the spotlight, and Kasich has no way to win red states (though I suspect he'll do well in blue states).
The only people who thought Rubio actually had a shot were the media, and maybe Rubio's wife.
Nah, betting markets really liked him in that brief window between Iowa and the debate. They still have him in 2nd with much higher odds since some of his backers ran off to Jeb after he showed a single beat of life in NH.
So now we have a battle between Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Cruz, and Trump?
...Do any of the three "establishment" candidates have a shot against Cruz or Trump (maybe if two drop out and rally behind the third)? It would be hilarious if Bush ended up winning this.
So now we have a battle between Bush, Rubio, Kasich, Cruz, and Trump?
...Do any of the three "establishment" candidates have a shot against Cruz or Trump (maybe if two drop out and rally behind the third)? It would be hilarious if Bush ended up winning this.
All three of the establishment candidates would have a shot if the other two dropped out, Cruz stayed in the race, and the establishment supporters didn't split unfavorably. Before the terrible NH debate I would have said Rubio has the best shot given those conditions, but none of them are really great; Jeb! is a punching bag that drives up Trump's numbers, Rubio exposes his circuits in the spotlight, and Kasich has no way to win red states (though I suspect he'll do well in blue states).
The only people who thought Rubio actually had a shot were the media, and maybe Rubio's wife.
Nah, betting markets really liked him in that brief window between Iowa and the debate. They still have him in 2nd with much higher odds since some of his backers ran off to Jeb after he showed a single beat of life in NH.
"I'm not getting any pressure from our millions of supporters (to leave the race). I'm getting a lot of pressure to make sure I stay in the race," Carson told CNN's Jake Tapper
"Our millions of supporters" is an odd way to refer to one's book publisher.
He's actually referring to the millions of people who stole his Jaguar, that he ran down after. Once he catches them and they recognize him, they invariably tell him they want him to continue running. For president, they mean.
"I'm not getting any pressure from our millions of supporters (to leave the race). I'm getting a lot of pressure to make sure I stay in the race," Carson told CNN's Jake Tapper
"Our millions of supporters" is an odd way to refer to one's book publisher.
He's actually referring to the millions of people who stole his Jaguar, that he ran down after. Once he catches them and they recognize him, they invariably tell him they want him to continue running. For president, they mean.
I read this as Carson owning an actual Jaguar the large cat, and not a car because a car wouldn't be outlandish enough.
"I'm not getting any pressure from our millions of supporters (to leave the race). I'm getting a lot of pressure to make sure I stay in the race," Carson told CNN's Jake Tapper
"Our millions of supporters" is an odd way to refer to one's book publisher.
He's actually referring to the millions of people who stole his Jaguar, that he ran down after. Once he catches them and they recognize him, they invariably tell him they want him to continue running. For president, they mean.
I read this as Carson owning an actual Jaguar the large cat, and not a car because a car wouldn't be outlandish enough.
Still not outlandish enough. The Jacksonville Jaguars.
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This is ridiculous bullshit. Among other things, he appointed the justices who eviscerated Brown. Nixon's Congresses were more liberal economically than she is, arguably.
no. economics is never pretty clear on anything, and doubly so when trying to predict the future. even if we were in a recession right now we wouldn't know about it for months.
Yeah, China's economy going south isn't necessarily going to have much of an effect on the USA because of how the trade relationship works. They need us more than we need them basically.
Only Nixon could go to China because he made sure nobody else could do it through his earlier actions as a politician.
The bolded has been my read on it, but I'm not an economist and the stock market has been shitting its pants, but when do they not shit their pants?
pleasepaypreacher.net
The crazy thing is that one reason the market is down are oil prices dropping, but for most of the country that drives or buys things shipped to them, that's like great news.
pleasepaypreacher.net
As for the China thing, the primary impact would be what we've been seeing already this year: China going down MASSIVELY drops demand for oil, so the price of oil tanks. This would have employment impact in places heavily invested in oil (Texas, northern plains states, Canada's Alberta), which could have some other impacts.
TBF that is because the very definition of a recession involves multiple quarters of negative growth. It's certainly possible to measure the same stats on a shorter timeline, but it then becomes less meaningful. Recessions do happen relatively frequently though, so we should be due for one soon, probably before the decade is out
I swear I recalled oil going down hurts the oil industry but also counter boosts others like I said shipping and by extension store prices because its cheaper to ship things. At least that was the analysis the last time oil fell before it shot back up like a rocket.
pleasepaypreacher.net
Yeah, that's what I'd EXPECT to happen, but I don't even know what the fuck anymore.
There's a few industries hurt by it (mostly fracking companies, because they cost too much to operate). There's some adjacent businesses also impacted, because - for example - my dad's old silica mining company, before he retired, got into the "selling tools used for fracking" business. Apparently, since the price of oil went down, THEIR demand went down, so they're not doing great, either. Similarly, I'd expect solar companies to not be doing so well, as a competing product.
But yeah, I don't really get it when it comes to the whole economy. (Not that I'm expecting prices to actually go down because shipping prices are going down).
I tried assuaging her using a softer form of that Schwarzenegger / lack of ideological loyalty piece and she seemed to buy it and we ended it with a mutual agreement of Fuck Cruz before seguing into a Sanders/Clinton discussion
It was quite interesting
and the gengars who are guiding me" -- W.S. Merwin
Considering China is basically the US's manufacturing center, a downturn in China's economy wouldn't really hurt the US. May even help, sadly, as already low wages in China could drop even lower and what little regulations there are could be reduced even further making it even cheaper to produce shit in China and then ship it to the US. In the end, US business doesn't care if the chinese workers can or can not afford the junk they're making, it's all being packaged and shipped out of country anyway.
Of course, this all goes out the window if it gets so bad that there is no way to safely and cheaply manufacturer goods there. See: Somalia
I know this is sort of off topic but I really hate this sentiment and don't exactly think it's valuable
no, it's not a comment on fiorina that you dislike her enough to believe anything you read about her
it's not a comment on obama when people believe he's a muslim either
It's most definitely a comment when a person can't tell the difference between a candidate and a supposedly satirized version of that candidate. It has nothing to do with like or dislike.
Oil prices are down because OPEC has the floodgates open. They're out to hurt the weaker oil producing countries and drive them out of business. Saudi officials have said as much. They don't see any reason to stabilize prices only to lose market share. Otherwise you would have seen supply cutbacks to mirror the demand dropoff so that prices remained stable.
"Our millions of supporters" is an odd way to refer to one's book publisher.
It depends entirely on the person being satired and how. I could probably absolutely tell the difference between Kasich and some satirized version. But I bombed a test trying to tell if a statement was made by Trump or Lucille Bluth. Which strikes me as being far more the fault of what Trump says than whether or not I make unfair assessments of him.
He's referring to money
It’s not a very important country most of the time
http://steamcommunity.com/id/mortious
Seriously I love reading economics papers there's always a slight air of f
Except Trump is cartoonishly evil, and makes no apologies for that fact... Because he's cartoonishly evil.
...Do any of the three "establishment" candidates have a shot against Cruz or Trump (maybe if two drop out and rally behind the third)? It would be hilarious if Bush ended up winning this.
It's possible one of them would have a shot if the other two dropped out.
Well, and Trump.
And Jeb.
...this has been the weirdest fucking primary.
All three of the establishment candidates would have a shot if the other two dropped out, Cruz stayed in the race, and the establishment supporters didn't split unfavorably. Before the terrible NH debate I would have said Rubio has the best shot given those conditions, but none of them are really great; Jeb! is a punching bag that drives up Trump's numbers, Rubio exposes his circuits in the spotlight, and Kasich has no way to win red states (though I suspect he'll do well in blue states).
Sub-prime lending didn't crash the economy. Wide-spread fraud by financial institutions while insuring and repackaging said loans are what crashed the economy. I'm hoping that's a trick that only works once, but I guess we'll see.
At this point, I'm not even sure that would make much of a difference.
Switch - SW-7373-3669-3011
Fuck Joe Manchin
Gilmore!
pleasepaypreacher.net
I'm not sure why he's running at this point. To hear talk radio tell it, Hannity etc. seem to think Jeb is only running to prove that it's possible to win without "the base" (ie, teaparty folks who are now completely off the reservation, and coincidentally talk radio's target demo). If that was the true experiment, first of all I have to give respect to the man for trying to pull the party closer to a reasonable approximation of the center. Ultimately, I don't think the genie goes back into the bottle on this one. Either the Republican party overall keeps shifting right, or teapers slit off into their own party.
I don't see the right splitting like that, so we're just going to have to deal with a further right shift... Which seems very likely to give us Donald Trump on the general election ballot.
The only people who thought Rubio actually had a shot were the media, and maybe Rubio's wife.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
Nah, betting markets really liked him in that brief window between Iowa and the debate. They still have him in 2nd with much higher odds since some of his backers ran off to Jeb after he showed a single beat of life in NH.
the guy with a boot on his head!
They tried to bury us. They didn't know that we were seeds. 2018 Midterms. Get your shit together.
So...nobody real.
PSN/Steam/NNID: SyphonBlue | BNet: SyphonBlue#1126
He's actually referring to the millions of people who stole his Jaguar, that he ran down after. Once he catches them and they recognize him, they invariably tell him they want him to continue running. For president, they mean.
I read this as Carson owning an actual Jaguar the large cat, and not a car because a car wouldn't be outlandish enough.
Still not outlandish enough. The Jacksonville Jaguars.