[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Brexitstential Crisis

RMS Oceanic

So this archipelago



Has these nations.



These nations are almost completely not unique in that they're run by a system known as Politics!

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

Run by-




Uh

Well, these folk would rather-



Huh


The Issues
















I'm sorry, but words hurt too much to recount it all

A spiffing place to keep up to date with the latest developments.

An Poblacht na hÉireann

Run by this chap.



These guys would rather he didn't.




Some of The Issues
- How to drink London's Milkshake!
- Irreconcilable Irredentism
- *Slurrrrrrp*
- Gay Marriage: #LoveWins
- Abolishing the Senate: Not just a topic for America or Star Wars threads!
- How to drink it up!

A shockin' good place to see what the feck the craic is.

So, discuss the goings on in the Dail and the Commons!

Wraith260

to be fair, i'm pretty sure that Europe was just something we made up anyway. if we stop believing in it then it can't hurt us. that's how these things work isn't it?

Burnage

The BBC talking heads continue to be a source of amusement.

"We're looking at tomorrow's headlines. This one says that 1 in 5 business owners are considering moving part of their businesses to Europe. That's pretty good, isn't it? We were warned about a mass exodus."
"That is a mass exodus."

Jazz

mere_immortal

https://twitter.com/PGMcNamara/status/747196746963509248

eEK!

Wraith260 wrote: »

to be fair, i'm pretty sure that Europe was just something we made up anyway. if we stop believing in it then it can't hurt us. that's how these things work isn't it?

My spiritual advisor tells me to drive out spirits you need to circle your house three times in an anti-clockwise motion.... then set fire to it.

Seems like the electorate is way ahead on the burning part, but not the circling.

M-Vickers

Copied from the last thread - last post few !

On the subject of Farage's little victory lap that he's doing at the moment

- tynic wrote: »
He's drunk on victory.

For how long, though ?

At some point, surely the ukip supporters are going to start asking the questions "Why are all the foreigners still here ? Why are they still arriving ? Where is my extra pension money now that we're not sending £350 a week to Europe ? What did we actually vote for, again ?

Muddypaws

One thin sliver of good to come out of this whole shambles is Johnson's cheeky chappy persona has been exposed as the utter sham it always was.

Jazz

M-Vickers wrote: »

...now that we're not sending £350 a week to Europe ?

Please excuse the same reply, sort of, but this is the picture I was looking for in the last thread and couldn't find:

altid

The stuff Johnson put in the telegraph reads like pure fantasy. He seems to be implying that we can have the free movement to go anywhere, but they can't have free movement to come here. Not going to happen. If anything all he can promise is a fudge where we have a points based system for non-EU migrants and we could have done that without trashing the economy, constitution, international relations and integrity of the country!

It's obvious what will happen in any negotiation. The EU simply has to sit back and say we're not getting anything better than Norway. Proper access to the common market means accepting EU legislation and free movement of people. It's why I consider the hard line shouting the EU leadership is taking to be a bad idea - they don't need to do it.

Quical

M-Vickers wrote: »

Copied from the last thread - last post few !

On the subject of Farage's little victory lap that he's doing at the moment

- tynic wrote: »
He's drunk on victory.

For how long, though ?

At some point, surely the ukip supporters are going to start asking the questions "Why are all the foreigners still here ? Why are they still arriving ? Where is my extra pension money now that we're not sending £350 a week to Europe ? What did we actually vote for, again ?

What I've discovered with my experience of ukip supporters is that rhyme and reason means nothing to them. All they need is for Farage ro make some shit up like" it's a conspiracy!" or "cigarettes are probably fine for you the doctors are wrong" and they'll just believe it and get angry at whatever he tells them to.

RMS Oceanic

Quical wrote: »

M-Vickers wrote: »

Copied from the last thread - last post few !

On the subject of Farage's little victory lap that he's doing at the moment

- tynic wrote: »
He's drunk on victory.

For how long, though ?

At some point, surely the ukip supporters are going to start asking the questions "Why are all the foreigners still here ? Why are they still arriving ? Where is my extra pension money now that we're not sending £350 a week to Europe ? What did we actually vote for, again ?

What I've discovered with my experience of ukip supporters is that rhyme and reason means nothing to them. All they need is for Farage ro make some shit up like" it's a conspiracy!" or "cigarettes are probably fine for you the doctors are wrong" and they'll just believe it and get angry at whatever he tells them to.

And that's why, for all the physical resemblance of BoJo, Farage is our real equivalent of Trump

Jazz

RMS Oceanic wrote: »

Quical wrote: »

M-Vickers wrote: »

Copied from the last thread - last post few !

On the subject of Farage's little victory lap that he's doing at the moment

- tynic wrote: »
He's drunk on victory.

For how long, though ?

At some point, surely the ukip supporters are going to start asking the questions "Why are all the foreigners still here ? Why are they still arriving ? Where is my extra pension money now that we're not sending £350 a week to Europe ? What did we actually vote for, again ?

What I've discovered with my experience of ukip supporters is that rhyme and reason means nothing to them. All they need is for Farage ro make some shit up like" it's a conspiracy!" or "cigarettes are probably fine for you the doctors are wrong" and they'll just believe it and get angry at whatever he tells them to.

And that's why, for all the physical resemblance of BoJo, Farage is our real equivalent of Trump

Yup. BoJo's more Dubya.

Burnage

Fun with demographics.

An interesting fact: my back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest by the time we actually leave the EU, a majority of the UK will want to Remain, even if nobody changes their mind.

It'll take at least 2-3 years to negotiate us leaving. In that time around 1.5 million UK citizens will die and 2 million will turn 18. With 18 year olds about 75% in favour of the EU and those 65+ 60/40 against it, Remain will gain just under a million supporters and Leave will lose about a third of a million.

Even if nobody changes their mind, by the time the thing we voted for comes to pass, public opinion will be against it. Demographics are terrifying, and politics is terrifyingly short-term.

altid

Sterling continues to fall, with further decline predicted:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36636853

While I don't want it to happen, a fall in the value of the currency is probably the one figure above all else that gets through to people and shows how bad it is.

Fencingsax

Has there been any progress in any of the desparation moves to not invoke article 50?

Jazz

altid wrote: »

Sterling continues to fall, with further decline predicted:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36636853

While I don't want it to happen, a fall in the value of the currency is probably the one figure above all else that gets through to people and shows how bad it is.

I heard too many people on Friday going "it recovered, it's fine".

Um. Yeah. That's how it works. Riiight.

RMS Oceanic

Fencingsax wrote: »

Has there been any progress in any of the desparation moves to not invoke article 50?

While announcing his resignation, Cameron is most likely still PM until a new leader is selected, so I think technically he could invoke it at any time before then. Choosing to resign instead of doing so kinda muddies the waters. It would be difficult for any invocation to feel authentic while the Tory leadership is in such shambles.

Mc zany

Any move not to invoke will damage the government and lead to a surge of ukip popularity. Right now the only feasible way to do it would be to turn the public against it. Which if the media were on board would be fairly easy. But as they are not...

Jazz

Fencingsax wrote: »

Has there been any progress in any of the desparation moves to not invoke article 50?

Parliamentary fightback against Brexit on cards

The prospect of a parliamentary fightback against the result of the EU referendum gathered pace on Sunday, with pro-remain figures saying they would not “roll over and give up”.

Some are urging a second referendum after Brexit negotiations have taken place.

Lord Heseltine has pointed to the practicalities of an overwhelming majority in the House of Commons against leaving the EU. “There is a majority of something like 350 in the House of Commons broadly in favour of the European relationship,” he said.

“There is no way you are going to get those people to say black is white and change their minds unless a) they know what the deal is and b) it has been supported either by an election or by another referendum,” Heseltine told Sky News. “So there’s a dramatic urgency to get on with the negotiations.”

He called for a cross-party group of MPs to look at the options and “articulate the case for Britain rethinking the result of the referendum”.

Earlier, Tony Blair, the former prime minister, said nothing should be ruled out. “As I’m looking at it here, I can’t see how we can do that. But, you know, the point is, why rule anything out right now?” Blair said the nation needed to consider the consequences of Brexit over the coming weeks and months.

But he added: “I can’t see how you would go through all of the mechanics of another referendum now, I just can’t see it.”

Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, said his party would not “roll over and give up” over the issue, pledging to fight the next general election on a manifesto promise to take Britain back into the EU. “We are determined to speak to the values that 16 million voted for, and many of the 17 million as well, that Britain is an outward-looking country, not one that isolates itself,” he told the Guardian. “Like all my predecessors I will stand committed to the UK being in the EU.”

Farron said the party recognised the legitimacy of the referendum but would not give up.

Farron’s view is backed up by Labour MP, David Lammy, who said he wanted to meet the Lib Dem leader to discuss the issue. “Economic disaster and the destruction of the union with Scotland loom,” Lammy said. “At the very least we need another vote.”

Writing in the Guardian, Lammy said: “The referendum was advisory and non-binding, in contrast to the referendum on electoral reform in 2011, which imposed a legal obligation on the government to legislate. Almost 500 members of parliament declared themselves in favour of remain, and it is within their powers to stop this madness through a vote in parliament.

“It is also within parliament’s powers to call a second referendum, now that the dust has begun to settle and the reality of a post-Brexit nation is coming into view. We need a second referendum at the very least, on the basis of a plan that is yet to even be drawn up.”

Jazz

RMS Oceanic wrote: »

Fencingsax wrote: »

Has there been any progress in any of the desparation moves to not invoke article 50?

While announcing his resignation, Cameron is most likely still PM until a new leader is selected, so I think technically he could invoke it at any time before then. Choosing to resign instead of doing so kinda muddies the waters. It would be difficult for any invocation to feel authentic while the Tory leadership is in such shambles.

I am chewing my fingers off waiting for Tuesday evening. If he can get through that without invoking it, there might be a glimmer of an inkling of a chance. Maybe.

RMS Oceanic

Thinking more long term, the elephant in the room is the economic insecurity and inflamed nativism that helped precipitate the Leave decision. One was caused at least in part by Tory neglect, the other by a relentless campaign of lies. While I think Corbyn's citing of some Labour areas going Leave was more about ex post facto justifying his own pre-vote position, it's a valid point that it's out there, and it needs addressed.

Only problem is, how do you address it without giving into it? I really don't know.

altid

A funny thought - could the Parliamentary Labour Party simply prevent Corbyn from running?

The rules from their last leadership election stated that you needed the support of 15% of the PLP to get on the ballot. Does the current leader need to obtain that? I have my doubts that Corbyn could.

RMS Oceanic

Mc zany wrote: »

Any move not to invoke will damage the government and lead to a surge of ukip popularity. Right now the only feasible way to do it would be to turn the public against it. Which if the media were on board would be fairly easy. But as they are not...

I think any walking back of A50 talk will depend on a general election. Call one, have your party campaign on walking it back, and if you win, you can use that victory to justify it, or at the very least another referendum. It might inflame UKIP anyway, but maybe not as much as unilaterally rejecting it.

Or Yuroskep Tories and UKIP win that election and invoke A50 anyway. I don't think we lose anything in that case anyway.

Desktop Hippie

Burnage wrote: »

The BBC talking heads continue to be a source of amusement.

"We're looking at tomorrow's headlines. This one says that 1 in 5 business owners are considering moving part of their businesses to Europe. That's pretty good, isn't it? We were warned about a mass exodus."
"That is a mass exodus."

One in five?! Holy shit! I mean that could be great news for Dublin, Cork and Limerick if we can assure them the UK won't drag us down with them, but holy shit! The fallout from even half of those going would be insane!

altid wrote: »

Sterling continues to fall, with further decline predicted:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36636853

While I don't want it to happen, a fall in the value of the currency is probably the one figure above all else that gets through to people and shows how bad it is.

A friend of a friend is doing her doctorate in Belfast, living there during the week and here at the weekends. She has to pay her deposit on her Belfast apartment on Monday. She's paying it out of her savings, which are in Euro. On Friday she was already set to save herself a fortune. It'll be interesting to see if sterling does sink further, and how the Euro holds up.

Wraith260

as much as Cameron not invoking A50 was a major 'fuck you' to BoJo*, i could see him reversing that decision for similar reasons if he thinks the next leader will try to walk things back to save their own neck. "Oh, you're not going follow through on what you campaigned for? Well let me help you with that..." filing the motion just before he leaves and plunging us all into even more chaos.

*or whoever if another Brexiter is dumb enough to go for i in Johnson's place.

RMS Oceanic

Wraith260 wrote: »

as much as Cameron not invoking A50 was a major 'fuck you' to BoJo*, i could see him reversing that decision for similar reasons if he thinks the next leader will try to walk things back to save their own neck. "Oh, you're not going follow through on what you campaigned for? Well let me help you with that..." filing the motion just before he leaves and plunging us all into even more chaos.

*or whoever if another Brexiter is dumb enough to go for i in Johnson's place.

That would seal the deal as him being the worst PM, because not only did he set in motion a chain of events with terrible risks for terrible reasons, he would have then wrecked any chance of salvaging something for the country out of spite.

altid

Following up on my own post, it turns out I'm not the only one thinking about this and legal advice has been sought by both sides already. The answer: maybe.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-legal-advice-automatically-on-ballot-leadership-challenge_uk_577003cfe4b0d2571149d42a

Corbyn's side say the minimum support rules only apply to the challenger. The other side point to precedent when Neil Kinnock needed to be nominated to defend against Tony Benn. The sane person points out that if you need legalities because you can't get the bare minimum support form your party, you probably shouldn't be there.

Wraith260

RMS Oceanic wrote: »

Wraith260 wrote: »

as much as Cameron not invoking A50 was a major 'fuck you' to BoJo*, i could see him reversing that decision for similar reasons if he thinks the next leader will try to walk things back to save their own neck. "Oh, you're not going follow through on what you campaigned for? Well let me help you with that..." filing the motion just before he leaves and plunging us all into even more chaos.

*or whoever if another Brexiter is dumb enough to go for i in Johnson's place.

That would seal the deal as him being the worst PM, because not only did he set in motion a chain of events with terrible risks for terrible reasons, he would have then wrecked any chance of salvaging something for the country out of spite.

unfortunately i think spite is all he's got left. and as he sits in office over the next couple of months watching the rest of the party simultaneously trying to pull itself together while eating itself alive, i wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with a 'fuck the lot of you' mentality.

of course i'm hoping it doesn't happen, but it wouldn't surprise me either. and in the unfortunate event that he does do it, i fully it expect that to backfire on him too.

RMS Oceanic

Wraith260 wrote: »

RMS Oceanic wrote: »

Wraith260 wrote: »

as much as Cameron not invoking A50 was a major 'fuck you' to BoJo*, i could see him reversing that decision for similar reasons if he thinks the next leader will try to walk things back to save their own neck. "Oh, you're not going follow through on what you campaigned for? Well let me help you with that..." filing the motion just before he leaves and plunging us all into even more chaos.

*or whoever if another Brexiter is dumb enough to go for i in Johnson's place.

That would seal the deal as him being the worst PM, because not only did he set in motion a chain of events with terrible risks for terrible reasons, he would have then wrecked any chance of salvaging something for the country out of spite.

unfortunately i think spite is all he's got left. and as he sits in office over the next couple of months watching the rest of the party simultaneously trying to pull itself together while eating itself alive, i wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with a 'fuck the lot of you' mentality.

of course i'm hoping it doesn't happen, but it wouldn't surprise me either. and in the unfortunate event that he does do it, i fully it expect that to backfire on him too.

How could it backfire anymore than it has? He's already lost everything, how could one more terrible decision make things worse?

Wraith260

RMS Oceanic wrote: »

Wraith260 wrote: »

RMS Oceanic wrote: »

Wraith260 wrote: »

as much as Cameron not invoking A50 was a major 'fuck you' to BoJo*, i could see him reversing that decision for similar reasons if he thinks the next leader will try to walk things back to save their own neck. "Oh, you're not going follow through on what you campaigned for? Well let me help you with that..." filing the motion just before he leaves and plunging us all into even more chaos.

*or whoever if another Brexiter is dumb enough to go for i in Johnson's place.

That would seal the deal as him being the worst PM, because not only did he set in motion a chain of events with terrible risks for terrible reasons, he would have then wrecked any chance of salvaging something for the country out of spite.

unfortunately i think spite is all he's got left. and as he sits in office over the next couple of months watching the rest of the party simultaneously trying to pull itself together while eating itself alive, i wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with a 'fuck the lot of you' mentality.

of course i'm hoping it doesn't happen, but it wouldn't surprise me either. and in the unfortunate event that he does do it, i fully it expect that to backfire on him too.

How could it backfire anymore than it has? He's already lost everything, how could one more terrible decision make things worse?

it causes a surge of sympathy for his successor, who's seen as simply trying to do their best at cleaning up Cameron's mess, rather than leaving them to decide if they really want to drive us over that cliff like he's doing now.

RMS Oceanic

Ugh, reading how Brexit is a boon for Putin, and I can't argue with that sentiment.

Burnage

If I hear another Leave campaigner saying that the pound is actually up I think the internal screaming may cause physical damage.

Antoshka

RMS Oceanic wrote: »

Wraith260 wrote: »

RMS Oceanic wrote: »

Wraith260 wrote: »

as much as Cameron not invoking A50 was a major 'fuck you' to BoJo*, i could see him reversing that decision for similar reasons if he thinks the next leader will try to walk things back to save their own neck. "Oh, you're not going follow through on what you campaigned for? Well let me help you with that..." filing the motion just before he leaves and plunging us all into even more chaos.

*or whoever if another Brexiter is dumb enough to go for i in Johnson's place.

That would seal the deal as him being the worst PM, because not only did he set in motion a chain of events with terrible risks for terrible reasons, he would have then wrecked any chance of salvaging something for the country out of spite.

unfortunately i think spite is all he's got left. and as he sits in office over the next couple of months watching the rest of the party simultaneously trying to pull itself together while eating itself alive, i wouldn't be surprised if he ends up with a 'fuck the lot of you' mentality.

of course i'm hoping it doesn't happen, but it wouldn't surprise me either. and in the unfortunate event that he does do it, i fully it expect that to backfire on him too.

How could it backfire anymore than it has? He's already lost everything, how could one more terrible decision make things worse?

Is this really a question anyone here actually wants to ask?
I mean, look a the last 3 days.
I would think you want to be careful what you invoke.

(Also, I have a family member who arrived in London yesterday morning. The last time they went to a conference, they arrived in Greece in November last year. I think I should just ban them from international travel)

Wraith260

tomorrows front pages,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-36636888

the quote from Boris on the front of The Daily Telegraph is something... special, shall we say.

I believe that this climate of apprehension is understandable, given what people were told during the campaign, but based on a profound misunderstanding about what has really taken place.

told by whom Boris? who's bullshit was it exactly that led to this 'profound misunderstand'? eh? you complete and utter wanker!

Couscous

RMS Oceanic wrote: »

Ugh, reading how Brexit is a boon for Putin, and I can't argue with that sentiment.

Iran and Russia are the only countries I have heard being happy about the result and for obvious reasons.

Desktop Hippie

Wraith260 wrote: »

tomorrows front pages,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-36636888

the quote from Boris on the front of The Daily Telegraph is something... special, shall we say.

I believe that this climate of apprehension is understandable, given what people were told during the campaign, but based on a profound misunderstanding about what has really taken place.

told by whom Boris? who's bullshit was it exactly that led to this 'profound misunderstand'? eh? you complete and utter wanker!

Wait, is Boris saying that the economic crisis he's helped create is just because the Remain campaign were "scaremongering" before the result and because people don't understand how great the Leave result is? Am I reading that right?

mere_immortal

Nigel Evans, tory MP for the Ribble Valley where I used to live just shared one of those "they were in the war so respect old people!" pictures.

I'm fucking sick of seeing those. Yes I absolutely respect anyone who was in any war (even though most "old people" were far to young to have actively done anything) but that doesn't mean they know jack shit about politics.

Rchanen

Couscous wrote: »

RMS Oceanic wrote: »

Ugh, reading how Brexit is a boon for Putin, and I can't argue with that sentiment.

Iran and Russia are the only countries I have heard being happy about the result and for obvious reasons.

I like Iran's mention of throwing off American dominance.

Wraith260

Desktop Hippie wrote: »

Wraith260 wrote: »

tomorrows front pages,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-36636888

the quote from Boris on the front of The Daily Telegraph is something... special, shall we say.

I believe that this climate of apprehension is understandable, given what people were told during the campaign, but based on a profound misunderstanding about what has really taken place.

told by whom Boris? who's bullshit was it exactly that led to this 'profound misunderstand'? eh? you complete and utter wanker!

Wait, is Boris saying that the economic crisis he's helped create is just because the Remain campaign were "scaremongering" before the result and because people don't understand how great the Leave result is? Am I reading that right?

that certainly seems to be what he's implying, yes. that for those that haven't clicked the link the quote ends "At home and abroad, the negative consequences are being wildly overdone, and the upside is being ignored". so pretty much literally "look, its just the currency collapsing. no big deal. look on the bright side." i can't help but imagining that there's some whistling in there too.

Couscous

Wraith260 wrote: »

Desktop Hippie wrote: »

Wraith260 wrote: »

tomorrows front pages,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-36636888

the quote from Boris on the front of The Daily Telegraph is something... special, shall we say.

I believe that this climate of apprehension is understandable, given what people were told during the campaign, but based on a profound misunderstanding about what has really taken place.

told by whom Boris? who's bullshit was it exactly that led to this 'profound misunderstand'? eh? you complete and utter wanker!

Wait, is Boris saying that the economic crisis he's helped create is just because the Remain campaign were "scaremongering" before the result and because people don't understand how great the Leave result is? Am I reading that right?

that certainly seems to be what he's implying, yes. that for those that haven't clicked the link the quote ends "At home and abroad, the negative consequences are being wildly overdone, and the upside is being ignored". so pretty much literally "look, its just the currency collapsing. no big deal. look on the bright side." i can't help but imagining that there's some whistling in there too.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/

The stock market is way above its level of last autumn; the pound remains higher than it was in 2013 and 2014.

The economy is in good hands. Most sensible people can see that Bank of England governor Mark Carney has done a superb job – and now that the referendum is over, he will be able to continue his work without being in the political firing-line. Thanks in large part to the reforms put in place by David Cameron and George Osborne, the fundamentals of the UK economy are outstandingly strong – a dynamic and outward-looking economy with an ever-improving skills base, and with a big lead in some of the key growth sectors of the 21st century.

That worked so well for McCain in 2008.