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[US Foreign Policy] A Generation of War

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    DrezDrez Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    The President seems to have forgotten that he stormed out of his last summit with North Korea with nothing accomplished.


    NBC News: President Trump says he has "no problem" with North Korea's recent missile launches: "Short-range missiles, we never made an agreement on that."

    YOU DIDNT MAKE AN AGREEMENT WITH THEM FOR ANYTHING!

    Which makes that a wholly accurate statement!

    ;)

    Switch: SW-7690-2320-9238Steam/PSN/Xbox: Drezdar
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    Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    Madican wrote: »
    Lol our regional allies sure are feeling good about now eh?

    I'm sure they expected an uphill battle with Trump, but I don't think they expected "uphill" to mean the Cliffs of Insanity

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    KetBraKetBra Dressed Ridiculously Registered User regular
    Lol our regional allies sure are feeling good about now eh?

    Your regional allies are too busy engaging in trade wars with each other

    KGMvDLc.jpg?1
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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    So I'm not entirely clear on this, but it sounds like India has moved to make Kashmir like any other Indian state, suspending its special status in their constitution. Pakistan is displeased, as I'm sure you'd guess.

    Also timing it while the US is in like sixteen different crises.

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    LanzLanz ...Za?Registered User regular
    So I'm not entirely clear on this, but it sounds like India has moved to make Kashmir like any other Indian state, suspending its special status in their constitution. Pakistan is displeased, as I'm sure you'd guess.

    Also timing it while the US is in like sixteen different crises.

    I gotta go confirm it but hearing reports they’ve basically cut ANY communications off as well. Phone, net, broadcast. Out of commission.

    waNkm4k.jpg?1
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    LanzLanz ...Za?Registered User regular
    Here we go, AJ’s got a bit on it



    Al Jezeera is a news organization

    waNkm4k.jpg?1
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    Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    Any idea what kicked this off?

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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    edited August 2019
    Any idea what kicked this off?

    Modi being an aggressive nationalist, opportunity while the US won't mediate, distractions from the lack of water?

    enlightenedbum on
    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    VeeveeVeevee WisconsinRegistered User regular
    https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/05/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-intl-hnk/index.html
    A broad communications blackout left many people without access to the internet and phone services across the territory, with measures also in place to prevent public meetings.
    While anticipating opposition in the region, analysts said the security crackdown would -- for now -- restrict the ability of ordinary Kashmiris to react.

    "They've put the state under a heavy security lock down and will shoot at sight anyone who tries to come out on the street," said Ajai Shukla, a New Delhi-based defense analyst and former military officer.

    No clue if the Indian troops actually have shoot on sight orders, but this is real fucking bad.

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    monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Any idea what kicked this off?

    Modi being an aggressive nationalist, opportunity while the US won't mediate, distractions from the lack of water?

    I would have figured they'd hold off until Brexit made everything a shambles to do something this reckless.

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    IncenjucarIncenjucar VChatter Seattle, WARegistered User regular
    moniker wrote: »
    Any idea what kicked this off?

    Modi being an aggressive nationalist, opportunity while the US won't mediate, distractions from the lack of water?

    I would have figured they'd hold off until Brexit made everything a shambles to do something this reckless.

    They were declaring themselves a space power by blowing stuff up not too long ago. I think India wants in on the global fascist uprising.

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    monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Incenjucar wrote: »
    moniker wrote: »
    Any idea what kicked this off?

    Modi being an aggressive nationalist, opportunity while the US won't mediate, distractions from the lack of water?

    I would have figured they'd hold off until Brexit made everything a shambles to do something this reckless.

    They were declaring themselves a space power by blowing stuff up not too long ago. I think India wants in on the global fascist uprising.

    Right, but timing is everything. I'm honestly expecting Iran to do something stupid In early November while everyone is distracted. Not sure what, but something.

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    enlightenedbumenlightenedbum Registered User regular
    Reading more it seems like the most immediate concern is the 7 million or so Kashmiri, who are mostly Muslim, and what the Modi government plans to do with them. There's also obviously the problem of a nuclear power objecting to another nuclear power essentially annexing disputed territory.

    Self-righteousness is incompatible with coalition building.
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    [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    The Kashmir thing made the news here in Norway, too. The newspaper argued that it was to distract from economic troubles. Modi got elected (and re-elected) on the twin pillars of economic prosperity and hindu nationalism. Since the first isn't going all that well any more, he's fallen back on pure nationalism.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
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    SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Modi is stupendously popular. I don't think that it's just a distraction. He, personally, is a Hindu Nationalist and Kashmir's semi-autonomy is consistent aggravation to them.

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    GONG-00GONG-00 Registered User regular
    Any idea what kicked this off?

    Modi being an aggressive nationalist, opportunity while the US won't mediate, distractions from the lack of water?

    For India, securing the Indus River alleviates their lack of water issue while putting a stranglehold on their regional rival.

    Black lives matter.
    Law and Order ≠ Justice
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    TraceTrace GNU Terry Pratchett; GNU Gus; GNU Carrie Fisher; GNU Adam We Registered User regular
    GONG-00 wrote: »
    Any idea what kicked this off?

    Modi being an aggressive nationalist, opportunity while the US won't mediate, distractions from the lack of water?

    For India, securing the Indus River alleviates their lack of water issue while putting a stranglehold on their regional rival.

    ...

    holy shit is this the start to the first "Water War" because of resource shortages cause of climate change?

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    SolarSolar Registered User regular
    It's definitely not a problem that's going away

    Although of course the Ethiopia/Sudan/Egypt confrontation over the Nile may pip it to the post for first shooting war over a climate crisis...

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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
    Trace wrote: »
    GONG-00 wrote: »
    Any idea what kicked this off?

    Modi being an aggressive nationalist, opportunity while the US won't mediate, distractions from the lack of water?

    For India, securing the Indus River alleviates their lack of water issue while putting a stranglehold on their regional rival.

    ...

    holy shit is this the start to the first "Water War" because of resource shortages cause of climate change?

    It sure as shit won't be the last, at least.

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    shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Trace wrote: »
    GONG-00 wrote: »
    Any idea what kicked this off?

    Modi being an aggressive nationalist, opportunity while the US won't mediate, distractions from the lack of water?

    For India, securing the Indus River alleviates their lack of water issue while putting a stranglehold on their regional rival.

    ...

    holy shit is this the start to the first "Water War" because of resource shortages cause of climate change?

    This conflict long predates any major climate change issues. It's obviously not gonna help but India/Pakistan has basically been the main place people have been expecting a nuclear war to start for a long time now.

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    [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    Modi is stupendously popular. I don't think that it's just a distraction. He, personally, is a Hindu Nationalist and Kashmir's semi-autonomy is consistent aggravation to them.

    Oh, he is absolutely a real Hindu nationalist, not merely pretending for political expediency. But that doesn't mean he can't push the nationalism angle extra hard when political expediency demands it.

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
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    CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Why does everyone always say anything a politician does is a "distraction"? Annexing Kashmir sounds more like an "aim" than a distraction to me.

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    TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Why does everyone always say anything a politician does is a "distraction"? Annexing Kashmir sounds more like an "aim" than a distraction to me.

    Because they are morons think that the world spin around what is on cable news at the moments.

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    SolarSolar Registered User regular
    Make no mistake, Kashmir and Jammu is a bloodbath in the making. I don't think Pakistan is strong enough to intervene outside of stepping up existing covert support for the insurgency there, but the Indian Army will respond and play rough if and when that insurgency kicks off in response to this move. And that very much plays into Modi and co's hand.

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    [Expletive deleted][Expletive deleted] The mediocre doctor NorwayRegistered User regular
    Why does everyone always say anything a politician does is a "distraction"? Annexing Kashmir sounds more like an "aim" than a distraction to me.

    It can be both. This is absolutely something Modi wants. But when, how, and how hard he pushes can depend on other factors. E.g., he might be worry that it might be premature or could back-fire but it's now or never due to other factors (not the case here, obv, just using it as an example.)

    Sic transit gloria mundi.
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    PhotosaurusPhotosaurus Bay Area, CARegistered User regular
    Figured this was the most appropriate thread for this, but I can move it if not.

    CNN: Huntsman out as Russia Ambassador

    "If complete and utter chaos was lightning, then he'd be the sort to stand on a hilltop in a thunderstorm wearing wet copper armour and shouting 'All gods are bastards'."
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    MorganVMorganV Registered User regular
    Figured this was the most appropriate thread for this, but I can move it if not.

    CNN: Huntsman out as Russia Ambassador

    Of course he resigned.

    I mean, I can't blame him, as on of of the few qualified AND competent members of the Administration, and his days were numbered for that reason.

    But if it was his choice*, it's disappointing, as he has to know that with the departure of Fiona Hill (top Russian official on NSC), his position is absolutely going to be filled with a Trump flunky that'll definitely put Trump's interest over the country's.

    * it seems like it was his choice, but the lartterpart of the article at least opens the possibility that he was pushed.

    So, given what Russia did during the 2016 election, anyone have confidence that2020 isn't going to be a complete shitshow?

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    Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    MorganV wrote: »
    his position is absolutely going to be filled with a Trump flunky that'll definitely put Putin's interest over the country's.

    Fixed.

    So, given what Russia did during the 2016 election, anyone have confidence that2020 isn't going to be a complete shitshow?

    No. (That will also be fixed.)

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    ViskodViskod Registered User regular
    Pentagon Inspector General report directly blames Trump for the resurgence of ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
    A report from the Pentagon inspector general found that President Donald Trump's decision to rapidly pull troops out of Syria and divert attention from diplomacy in Iraq has inadvertently aided the Islamic State's regrouping in Syria and Iraq.

    The Department of Defense's quarterly report to Congress on the effectiveness of the US Operation Inherent Resolve mission said that "ISIS continued its transition from a territory-holding force to an insurgency in Syria, and it intensified its insurgency in Iraq" — even though Trump said ISIS was defeated and the caliphate quashed, The Wall Street Journal reported.
    The IG's report also explicitly said the troop drawdown in Syria, which Trump announced at the end of last year, contributed to instability in the region. The drawdown, which prompted the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, left the US's Syrian partners in the lurch, without the training or support they needed to confront a resurgent ISIS. In Iraq, the Iraqi security forces lack the necessary infrastructure to fight off ISIS for sustained periods.
    Trump campaigned in part on a promise to withdraw the US from conflicts in the Middle East, as part of his "America First" policy. But his shortsighted decision-making based on that premise doesn't just destabilize Iraq and Syria, it also has the potential to do the same in Afghanistan, where the US is negotiating with the Taliban to withdraw from the country.

    There, an ISIS branch, ISIS Khorasan, or ISIS K, is gaining ground and recruiting militants disillusioned with the Taliban's decision to operate as a political entity and not, primarily, as a jihadi one. As the Middle East expert Nicholas Heras of the Center for a New American Security previously told INSIDER, ISIS K is trying to make the case that Afghanistan is the perfect place to wage holy war on a multiplicity of fronts.

    "ISIS K will likely succeed," Heras said.

    So much for ISIS being defeated.

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    daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Oh great, a group for like-minded individuals who think the Taliban aren't shooty enough.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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    Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    Pentagon Inspector General report directly blames Trump for the resurgence of ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
    A report from the Pentagon inspector general found that President Donald Trump's decision to rapidly pull troops out of Syria and divert attention from diplomacy in Iraq has inadvertently aided the Islamic State's regrouping in Syria and Iraq.

    The Department of Defense's quarterly report to Congress on the effectiveness of the US Operation Inherent Resolve mission said that "ISIS continued its transition from a territory-holding force to an insurgency in Syria, and it intensified its insurgency in Iraq" — even though Trump said ISIS was defeated and the caliphate quashed, The Wall Street Journal reported.
    The IG's report also explicitly said the troop drawdown in Syria, which Trump announced at the end of last year, contributed to instability in the region. The drawdown, which prompted the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, left the US's Syrian partners in the lurch, without the training or support they needed to confront a resurgent ISIS. In Iraq, the Iraqi security forces lack the necessary infrastructure to fight off ISIS for sustained periods.
    Trump campaigned in part on a promise to withdraw the US from conflicts in the Middle East, as part of his "America First" policy. But his shortsighted decision-making based on that premise doesn't just destabilize Iraq and Syria, it also has the potential to do the same in Afghanistan, where the US is negotiating with the Taliban to withdraw from the country.

    There, an ISIS branch, ISIS Khorasan, or ISIS K, is gaining ground and recruiting militants disillusioned with the Taliban's decision to operate as a political entity and not, primarily, as a jihadi one. As the Middle East expert Nicholas Heras of the Center for a New American Security previously told INSIDER, ISIS K is trying to make the case that Afghanistan is the perfect place to wage holy war on a multiplicity of fronts.

    "ISIS K will likely succeed," Heras said.

    So much for ISIS being defeated.

    It can't be Trump's fault! His one weird trick big plan to defeat them in 90 days was to tell the generals to come up with a plan. So it's their fault!

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    Doctor DetroitDoctor Detroit Registered User regular
    Viskod wrote: »
    Pentagon Inspector General report directly blames Trump for the resurgence of ISIS in Syria and Iraq.
    A report from the Pentagon inspector general found that President Donald Trump's decision to rapidly pull troops out of Syria and divert attention from diplomacy in Iraq has inadvertently aided the Islamic State's regrouping in Syria and Iraq.

    The Department of Defense's quarterly report to Congress on the effectiveness of the US Operation Inherent Resolve mission said that "ISIS continued its transition from a territory-holding force to an insurgency in Syria, and it intensified its insurgency in Iraq" — even though Trump said ISIS was defeated and the caliphate quashed, The Wall Street Journal reported.
    The IG's report also explicitly said the troop drawdown in Syria, which Trump announced at the end of last year, contributed to instability in the region. The drawdown, which prompted the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, left the US's Syrian partners in the lurch, without the training or support they needed to confront a resurgent ISIS. In Iraq, the Iraqi security forces lack the necessary infrastructure to fight off ISIS for sustained periods.
    Trump campaigned in part on a promise to withdraw the US from conflicts in the Middle East, as part of his "America First" policy. But his shortsighted decision-making based on that premise doesn't just destabilize Iraq and Syria, it also has the potential to do the same in Afghanistan, where the US is negotiating with the Taliban to withdraw from the country.

    There, an ISIS branch, ISIS Khorasan, or ISIS K, is gaining ground and recruiting militants disillusioned with the Taliban's decision to operate as a political entity and not, primarily, as a jihadi one. As the Middle East expert Nicholas Heras of the Center for a New American Security previously told INSIDER, ISIS K is trying to make the case that Afghanistan is the perfect place to wage holy war on a multiplicity of fronts.

    "ISIS K will likely succeed," Heras said.

    So much for ISIS being defeated.

    So much for the IG having a job.

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    Mild ConfusionMild Confusion Smash All Things Registered User regular
    It’s always nice to have official confirmation that my friends died for nothing fighting ISIS in 2017.

    I mean, I already knew that, but now it’s official!

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    Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
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    KaputaKaputa Registered User regular
    edited August 2019
    The Indian aggression in Kashmir is very disturbing on its own. But if resistance to India's move takes the form of increased insurgency backed by Pakistan, the context of this occurring with an increasingly violent Afghanistan next door, including an ISIS branch active along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and a possible US withdrawal, then the potential for severe regional destabilisation seems even greater.

    As far as ISIS's resurgence in Syria and Iraq goes, the insurgency is a problem, but I don't think a rebirth of their caliphate is likely unless there is another massive outbreak of war between other parties (e.g. Syrian government and rebels/Turkey).

    Kaputa on
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    GaddezGaddez Registered User regular
    Kaputa wrote: »

    As far as ISIS's resurgence in Syria and Iraq goes, the insurgency is a problem, but I don't think a rebirth of their caliphate is likely unless there is another massive outbreak of war between other parties (e.g. Syrian government and rebels/Turkey).

    While I doubt that ISIS can achieve it's goals of establishing a caliphate (it would require toppling multiple nations and after that get muslims not directly under their control to agree to there vision which just... no.) the fact remains that as long as they're around there is no possibility of stability in the region.

    So yeah, trump pulling out because he couldn't think of a way to squeeze cheap political points out of the conflict and because putin told him to is a wonderful millstone you can hang around his neck come 2020, in adition to how he's been trying to give nuclear tech to saudi arabia, done everything he can to antagonize iran into war, fellatiated russia, undermined NATO, backed the destabilization of the UK, refused to acknowledge that NK is building up WMDs and treated asylum seekers like they're afflicted with spanish flu.

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    Mild ConfusionMild Confusion Smash All Things Registered User regular
    Kaputa wrote: »
    The Indian aggression in Kashmir is very disturbing on its own. But if resistance to India's move takes the form of increased insurgency backed by Pakistan, the context of this occurring with an increasingly violent Afghanistan next door, including an ISIS branch active along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and a possible US withdrawal, then the potential for severe regional destabilisation seems even greater.

    As far as ISIS's resurgence in Syria and Iraq goes, the insurgency is a problem, but I don't think a rebirth of their caliphate is likely unless there is another massive outbreak of war between other parties (e.g. Syrian government and rebels/Turkey).

    Unless increased tensions between Pakistan and India destabilizes the region enough for them to regain a foothold.

    steam_sig.png

    Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
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    daveNYCdaveNYC Why universe hate Waspinator? Registered User regular
    Can’t wait until someone in ISIS K gets the bright idea to start up a Kashmir branch. Shooting Americans in Afghanistan is all good fun, but they’re leaving and then you’re stuck shooting other Muslims. Kashmir lets you shoot at straight up Hindu nationalists who are (most likely) looking to put the boot to the local Muslims. That’s got to be an attractive sales pitch.

    Shut up, Mr. Burton! You were not brought upon this world to get it!
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    Dongs GaloreDongs Galore Registered User regular
    edited August 2019
    daveNYC wrote: »
    Can’t wait until someone in ISIS K gets the bright idea to start up a Kashmir branch. Shooting Americans in Afghanistan is all good fun, but they’re leaving and then you’re stuck shooting other Muslims. Kashmir lets you shoot at straight up Hindu nationalists who are (most likely) looking to put the boot to the local Muslims. That’s got to be an attractive sales pitch.

    IS-K is in Afghanistan to shoot at other Muslims, that's basically all they've been doing there. The Taliban are literally at war with IS-K, as are the Tehrek-i-Taliban in Pakistan. In fact the Taliban are the ones who shattered IS-K in their offensives last year.

    See, the Taliban consider their Emirate the legitimate government of Afghanistan. They have no interest in being subjects of a Syrian Caliph, and IS-K has been indiscriminately bombing mosques, which is against Taliban policy. (also, ISIS is kind of too radically Islamist for the Taliban)

    Dongs Galore on
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    Dongs GaloreDongs Galore Registered User regular
    Imagine telling someone in 2006 that the Taliban and Al-Qaeda would be the moderate, good guy side of Salafism in 2019

This discussion has been closed.