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Dem Primary: There Are Too Many Candidates Nowadays, Please Eliminate Twenty

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Posts

  • CoinageCoinage The Naming of Cats is a difficult matter Registered User regular
    I just saw a Harris sticker today and it's the only primary sticker I've seen so far, are polls underestimating the cars I saw while driving to the grocery store demographic?

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  • AbsalonAbsalon Registered User regular
    edited September 11
    Going too hard on Biden is dangerous. He is still a bit of the fun uncle with a very challenging past and he can 'aw shucks' his way out of some criticism in the eyes of many voters.

    One effective angle would be to call him out on evoking Obama and their administration by pointing at all Republicans have done to and said about Obama and his work despite his reconciliatory ways and compromise, as well as their almost complete loyalty to a man who called Obama an illegitimate foreigner, and then ask why 'Obama's pal and caretaker of Obama's legacy' wants to work with them and be chums with them so unconditionally.

    Absalon on
    jimb213
  • FencingsaxFencingsax It is difficult to get a man to understand, when his salary depends upon his not understanding GNU Terry PratchettRegistered User regular
    edited September 11
    PantsB wrote: »


    Polling shows the top 5 all bearing Trump but by differing margins. Biden by 15(!), Bernie by 9, Warren and Harris by 7 and Pete by 4. This helps bolster Biden's electability argument.

    The question is why. It's a very difficult thing to figure it out I think.

    Is Biden too because of his more moderate ideology? That makes Bernie being 9 with Harrid and Warren 7 and Pete 4 make less sense.

    Name recognition might be it but how long is that viable as an argument? Experience/age would be related with Biden and Bernie the oldest follower by Warren, then Harris then Pete. And Biden and Bernie are the old straight white men, maybe with Bernie getting partial credit because he's not Christian and/or is Jewish. Its smart to never rule out sexism/misogyny/homophobia.

    A strong plurality of D voters are primarily concerned with picking the candidate most likely to beat Trump (and I can't totally blame them) and if these kinds of results keep happening it's hard to argue against that being Biden. We can point to his gaffes and his possible mental slowdown and they can point to it not seeming to matter. We can point to him being less liberal and they can point to him being closer to the median/mean Dem and general election voter anyway.

    I personally hope one of the 4 candidates I think are clearly above the rest can make a real move in these next few debates because the window seems smaller and smaller

    Name recognition has basically just gotten started. Most people have not been paying attention to the primaries.

    Fencingsax on
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  • MayabirdMayabird Pecking at the keyboardRegistered User regular
    According to Jim Cramer and some other rich asshole talking heads on CNBC, CEOs and other rich oligarch types are scared of Elizabeth Warren becoming president. She might actually make them have to pay taxes and be responsible and stuff. So Warren responded.

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  • DisrupterDisrupter Registered User regular
    The nightmare scenario I see here is Biden having like 40% and Warren having like 31 and Bernie like 29

    I don’t see Bernie backing down if he’s even in the double digits. Warren shouldn’t as long as she’s the more popular between her and Bernie

    So then Biden limps across the finish line with a majority of Dems against him and Warren voters hating Bernie voters and vice versa

    This is also the most likely scenario too, imo

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  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    edited September 11
    Bernie/Warren voters wouldn't necessarily just flip to the other if their favored candidate drops out. A lot of Warren voters think Bernie is too left, too strident. A lot of Bernie voters think that Warren lacks a penis. Both these types would go Biden if their favored candidate drops out.

    CelestialBadger on
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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    edited September 11
    Bernie/Warren voters wouldn't necessarily just flip to the other if their favored candidate drops out. A lot of Warren voters think Bernie is too left, too strident. A lot of Bernie voters think that Warren lacks a penis. Both these types would go Biden if their favored candidate drops out.

    Super cool.

    Anyway "what if someone just refuses to drop out" is pretty seriously premature at this point

    Styrofoam Sammich on
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  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades 地獄のようにかわいい あなたは嫉妬深いかRegistered User regular
    Disrupter wrote: »
    The nightmare scenario I see here is Biden having like 40% and Warren having like 31 and Bernie like 29

    I don’t see Bernie backing down if he’s even in the double digits. Warren shouldn’t as long as she’s the more popular between her and Bernie

    So then Biden limps across the finish line with a majority of Dems against him and Warren voters hating Bernie voters and vice versa

    This is also the most likely scenario too, imo

    You need 2,383 delegates to win the nomination. 40% of the 4,765 Democratic delegates comes to 1,906 delegates. So under this nightmare scenario, Biden would not "limp across the finish line". What's more likely is that Warren and Bernie would hammer out a deal for his delegates.

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  • BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Fighting The Rising Odds Registered User, Moderator mod
    Bernie/Warren voters wouldn't necessarily just flip to the other if their favored candidate drops out. A lot of Warren voters think Bernie is too left, too strident. A lot of Bernie voters think that Warren lacks a penis. Both these types would go Biden if their favored candidate drops out.

    I just said knock this shit about dissing other candidates supporters off. If you can’t manage that don’t be in the thread.

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  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    edited September 11
    .
    Disrupter wrote: »
    The nightmare scenario I see here is Biden having like 40% and Warren having like 31 and Bernie like 29

    I don’t see Bernie backing down if he’s even in the double digits. Warren shouldn’t as long as she’s the more popular between her and Bernie

    So then Biden limps across the finish line with a majority of Dems against him and Warren voters hating Bernie voters and vice versa

    This is also the most likely scenario too, imo

    You need 2,383 delegates to win the nomination. 40% of the 4,765 Democratic delegates comes to 1,906 delegates. So under this nightmare scenario, Biden would not "limp across the finish line". What's more likely is that Warren and Bernie would hammer out a deal for his delegates.

    Leading to a situation where the person with clearly the most votes doesn't win the nomination?

    I think there would rightfully be huge pressure on the Warren/Sanders (and otherwise affiliated) delegates to support the popular winner in that scenario. And after the first ballot super delegates are allowed to vote basically to either prevent that kind of dealmaking or nominate someone else if there's some kind of late breaking event (health, scandal etc).

    The resulting division would also not be good.

    edit
    Although 40% of votes wouldn't mean 40% of delegates because of 15% thresholds etc but still

    PantsB on
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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    I think posting nightmare scenarios before any delegates have been awarded is premature. Like lets have some votes first. I mean Iowa and NH might be all about that Tom Steyer and boy we'd feel silly.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • ElkiElki get busy Moderator, ClubPA mod
    Well, someone’s gonna do something lame and embarrassing to watch tomorrow.



    MSNBC reporter.

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  • mrpakumrpaku Registered User regular
    Drop out live, on stage?

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  • PiotyrPiotyr Registered User regular
    Is it announce the suspension of his campaign at the start of the debate?

  • JragghenJragghen Registered User regular
    He's going to give every member of the audience $1000.

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  • -Tal-Tal Registered User regular
    Everyone watching gets a cool grand

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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Elki wrote: »
    Well, someone’s gonna do something lame and embarrassing to watch tomorrow.



    MSNBC reporter.

    Freestyle

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  • MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    As an Iowa resident I can assure you that after his non-stop fucking tv ads I’ve only begun to hate Steyer more.

    Whittledown
  • PiotyrPiotyr Registered User regular
    Marathon wrote: »
    As an Iowa resident I can assure you that after his non-stop fucking tv ads I’ve only begun to hate Steyer more.

    Part of me is glad Steyer qualified for one debate so he can be eviscerated on stage.

    Part of me wishes the system was set up so Steyer couldn't buy his way into the debates in the first place.

    FencingsaxSpoit
  • KruiteKruite Registered User regular
    Jragghen wrote: »
    He's going to give every member of the audience $1000.

    He's going to do it to the background music of Trust a la jack Nickelson's Joker Money Giveaway

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  • CoinageCoinage The Naming of Cats is a difficult matter Registered User regular
    To energize his base Yang is going to goatse right on stage

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  • AbsoluteZeroAbsoluteZero The new film by Quentin Koopantino Registered User regular
    I can only assume this means he's gonna drop trow and moon the moderators.

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Brainleech wrote: »
    Warren is going to run roughshod over Biden tomorrow night. He's bad at thinking on his feet and she excels at it.

    Hopefully some frontrunners finally getting to meet in a debate puts things in a starker contrast.

    I feel Harris can go out with a bang taking Biden out as she found the holes in his armor and went for it

    At this point she needs to focus more on making an affirmative case for herself than dragging Joe down. She's straddling so many fences right now it's going to take hours to get the splinters out, but even if those are her non-focus-tested, cynically-political positions, she is in dire need of a strong thesis statement.

    I believe brainleech's argument - which I agree with, if so - is that Harris is just about done, and the most good she can do at this point is ripping into Biden and taking him out of the race as well.

    I think most of the not-top-3 are just about done. Like, anyone in the second-tier group at this point seems to have at best a long-shot chance of jumping into the front-runner tier. I don't think I've seen any polling in Iowa or NH that suggests it's gonna shake things up majorly there. Maybe Nevada or SC? Not sure I've seen anything from there in awhile.

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  • shrykeshryke Member of the Beast Registered User regular
    Elki wrote: »
    Well, someone’s gonna do something lame and embarrassing to watch tomorrow.



    MSNBC reporter.

    I'm sure someone was wondering what his penis looked like. I guess this is their chance.

  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    I'd make a jokey guess at what Yang is going to do, but he's not even worth that.

    I took a look at NH polls on 538. This is not helpful
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  • NobeardNobeard North Carolina: Failed StateRegistered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    I'd make a jokey guess at what Yang is going to do, but he's not even worth that.

    I took a look at NH polls on 538. This is not helpful
    davd5vkmnx08.png

    That's a little bit too cropped, I think. I can't tell what I'm looking at.

    I'm not saying we are going to have an autocratic dystopia, but things keep happening that look like they come from an autocratic dystopia.
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  • Styrofoam SammichStyrofoam Sammich WANT. 5386-8443-8937Registered User regular
    Nobeard wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    I'd make a jokey guess at what Yang is going to do, but he's not even worth that.

    I took a look at NH polls on 538. This is not helpful
    davd5vkmnx08.png

    That's a little bit too cropped, I think. I can't tell what I'm looking at.

    More or less a theee way tie in NH

  • zekebeauzekebeau Registered User regular
    Elki wrote: »
    Well, someone’s gonna do something lame and embarrassing to watch tomorrow.



    MSNBC reporter.

    He's going to launch a new crypto currency on the debate stage.

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  • SpoitSpoit *twitch twitch* Registered User regular
    Absalon wrote: »
    Going too hard on Biden is dangerous. He is still a bit of the fun uncle with a very challenging past and he can 'aw shucks' his way out of some criticism in the eyes of many voters.

    One effective angle would be to call him out on evoking Obama and their administration by pointing at all Republicans have done to and said about Obama and his work despite his reconciliatory ways and compromise, as well as their almost complete loyalty to a man who called Obama an illegitimate foreigner, and then ask why 'Obama's pal and caretaker of Obama's legacy' wants to work with them and be chums with them so unconditionally.

    Imo his inability to laugh off Harris' attack in the first debate is what really got traction there. Angry Joe doesn't play anywhere near as well

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  • JavenJaven Registered User regular
    I would seriously doubt any strategy that involved going particularly negative for any of the candidates

  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    Nobeard wrote: »
    PantsB wrote: »
    I'd make a jokey guess at what Yang is going to do, but he's not even worth that.

    I took a look at NH polls on 538. This is not helpful
    davd5vkmnx08.png

    That's a little bit too cropped, I think. I can't tell what I'm looking at.

    Either
    Sanders is up 8 on Biden and 12 on Warren
    or
    Biden is up 3 on Warren and 11 on Sanders
    or
    Warren is up 1 on Biden and 2 on Sanders

    So either Biden, Warren or Sanders lead in a three way tie or a two horse race or a runaway.

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  • PantsBPantsB Registered User regular
    Spoit wrote: »
    Absalon wrote: »
    Going too hard on Biden is dangerous. He is still a bit of the fun uncle with a very challenging past and he can 'aw shucks' his way out of some criticism in the eyes of many voters.

    One effective angle would be to call him out on evoking Obama and their administration by pointing at all Republicans have done to and said about Obama and his work despite his reconciliatory ways and compromise, as well as their almost complete loyalty to a man who called Obama an illegitimate foreigner, and then ask why 'Obama's pal and caretaker of Obama's legacy' wants to work with them and be chums with them so unconditionally.

    Imo his inability to laugh off Harris' attack in the first debate is what really got traction there. Angry Joe doesn't play anywhere near as well

    Swalwell hit him and he used his big ole Joe grin and it fell flat.

    Harris hit him and he wasn't smiling anymore

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  • BrainleechBrainleech Registered User regular
    PantsB wrote: »
    Spoit wrote: »
    Absalon wrote: »
    Going too hard on Biden is dangerous. He is still a bit of the fun uncle with a very challenging past and he can 'aw shucks' his way out of some criticism in the eyes of many voters.

    One effective angle would be to call him out on evoking Obama and their administration by pointing at all Republicans have done to and said about Obama and his work despite his reconciliatory ways and compromise, as well as their almost complete loyalty to a man who called Obama an illegitimate foreigner, and then ask why 'Obama's pal and caretaker of Obama's legacy' wants to work with them and be chums with them so unconditionally.

    Imo his inability to laugh off Harris' attack in the first debate is what really got traction there. Angry Joe doesn't play anywhere near as well

    Swalwell hit him and he used his big ole Joe grin and it fell flat.

    Harris hit him and he wasn't smiling anymore

    It's why I said Harris pretty has the torpedo to sink Biden but it will cost her as well

  • TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    Yang about tonight's debate:

    Oh God.

    He's going to drag everybody down with whatever ridiculous stunt he comes up, isn't he?

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  • CelestialBadgerCelestialBadger Registered User regular
    Cosplay!!!!!!

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  • PreacherPreacher Registered User regular
    God I'm already cringing a the horrible possibilities. This is going to be like your parent catching your jerking off bad.

    I would like some money because these are artisanal nuggets of wisdom philistine.

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  • AridholAridhol Daddliest Catch Registered User regular
    Surely won't harm the democratic party having someone be a clown in a serious debate.

    Bring back Williamson and go whole hog.

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  • mrpakumrpaku Registered User regular
    edited September 11
    Cosplay!!!!!!

    His top suit rips away stripper style to reveal an Andrew Lesko "Mad Money" suit and then he starts chucking cash into the crowd while screaming like a maniac

    mrpaku on
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  • CptHamiltonCptHamilton Registered User regular
    mrpaku wrote: »
    Cosplay!!!!!!

    His top suit rips away stripper style to reveal an Andrew Lesko "Mad Money" suit and then he starts chucking cash into the crowd while screaming like a maniac

    That was my first thought as well except I couldn't remember Andrew Lesko's name so I just thought, "He's going to wear that weird 'The Government Will Give YOU Money!' guy's off-brand Riddler suit, isn't he?"

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  • doomybeardoomybear Hi People Registered User regular
    My guess is that he's going on stage in casual wear

    Like, jeans and a polo

    Or if he's feeling really brave, sweatpants and an oversized graphic t-shirt that says something like 'who, what, where, wine' and also slippers

    Because he is just an average guy, man

    what a happy day it is
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This discussion has been closed.