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[Hiberno-Britannic Politics] Winning The Argument Looks A Lot Like Losing

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    TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    Bethryn wrote: »
    For some delicious schadenfreude, here's Nick Boles bringing out the knife for the Tories while laying into Corbyn at the same time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50380613
    Mr Boles - who quit the Tories over their stance on Brexit - also revealed he would vote Liberal Democrat.

    In what is basically a two party FPTP system, if Boles wants to have an impact he should vote Labour.

    Any bets on whether that makes a newspaper cover like the Ken Clarke one did?

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    themightypuckthemightypuck MontanaRegistered User regular
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Bethryn wrote: »
    For some delicious schadenfreude, here's Nick Boles bringing out the knife for the Tories while laying into Corbyn at the same time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50380613
    Mr Boles - who quit the Tories over their stance on Brexit - also revealed he would vote Liberal Democrat.

    In what is basically a two party FPTP system, if Boles wants to have an impact he should vote Labour.

    Any bets on whether that makes a newspaper cover like the Ken Clarke one did?

    Obviously one would bet no. We are now in the thick of it.

    “Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.”
    ― Marcus Aurelius

    Path of Exile: themightypuck
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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Bethryn wrote: »
    For some delicious schadenfreude, here's Nick Boles bringing out the knife for the Tories while laying into Corbyn at the same time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50380613
    Mr Boles - who quit the Tories over their stance on Brexit - also revealed he would vote Liberal Democrat.

    In what is basically a two party FPTP system, if Boles wants to have an impact he should vote Labour.

    Any bets on whether that makes a newspaper cover like the Ken Clarke one did?

    Obviously one would bet no. We are now in the thick of it.

    I wondered where all the swearing was coming from.

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    TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    Jazz wrote: »
    Tastyfish wrote: »
    Bethryn wrote: »
    For some delicious schadenfreude, here's Nick Boles bringing out the knife for the Tories while laying into Corbyn at the same time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50380613
    Mr Boles - who quit the Tories over their stance on Brexit - also revealed he would vote Liberal Democrat.

    In what is basically a two party FPTP system, if Boles wants to have an impact he should vote Labour.

    Any bets on whether that makes a newspaper cover like the Ken Clarke one did?

    Obviously one would bet no. We are now in the thick of it.

    I wondered where all the swearing was coming from.

    It's an aside, but I would 100% go and see a political adaption of the Tell Tale Heart. Where some advisers have murdered the Cabinet Secretary or the Media adviser, who then just continues to comment on the rest of precedings ala Malcolm Tucker throughout the play until they all break down, until the denouement when the last one finally fucking kills himself in call back to the graphic way suggest by the deceased in Act 2.

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    CroakerBCCroakerBC TorontoRegistered User regular
    Bethryn wrote: »
    For some delicious schadenfreude, here's Nick Boles bringing out the knife for the Tories while laying into Corbyn at the same time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50380613
    Mr Boles - who quit the Tories over their stance on Brexit - also revealed he would vote Liberal Democrat.

    In what is basically a two party FPTP system, if Boles wants to have an impact he should vote Labour.

    As ever, that depends on whether he a) wants to prevent a Tory taking the seat b) is making a protest vote c) where he votes and the status of the seat.

    This is not a two party system, and as a result, tactical voting matters, depending on your goals.

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    ArchangleArchangle Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    I shows how much of a cult his party is as well. He says 317 candidates don't stand and they all bow, or at least they have no recourse to complain about it. No one saying hang on I gave you money so I could stand as a candidate how can you simply withdraw this?

    And the answer is, of course, that it isn't and never was a political party with members and an elected leader they could actually influence, just a cult for arseholes, racists and the gullible.
    I wonder if you could play some mischief and start contacting some of the remaining candidates to tell them Farage said they shouldn't contest their seats...

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    Guardian blog.
    Farage urged the Conservatives to stand aside in some Labour-held seats to give the Brexit party a better chance of winning in them.

    Farage begging for a handout after rolling over on his back for Johnson is unlikely to bear fruit but also deliciously abject.

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    Commander ZoomCommander Zoom Registered User regular
    "Right, we did you a favor, now you do one for us."
    "Ummm... I'm thinking 'no'."

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    He folded like a cheap pinstripe suit and now wants Johnson to help his Brexit Party grift get a couple of MPs so he can blag some short money handouts. Seeing his fledgling party be crushed like bugs in the election is probably going to be the one bright spot of the evening.

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    PerduraboPerdurabo Registered User regular
    Bethryn wrote: »
    For some delicious schadenfreude, here's Nick Boles bringing out the knife for the Tories while laying into Corbyn at the same time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50380613
    Mr Boles - who quit the Tories over their stance on Brexit - also revealed he would vote Liberal Democrat.

    In what is basically a two party FPTP system, if Boles wants to have an impact he should vote Labour.

    Part of the problem we have at the minute is that we have two shitty parties dominating the FPTP system. This leads to a lot of people voting "tactically", which whilst it's done for good reasons, leads to long term problems. The problem with tactical voting in situations like this is that we can all get locked into a choice between Shit and Slightly Less Shit, and both parties rely on this. If people actually voted for what they wanted, there's a chance one of the Not at all Shitty parties could win. Even if we think that we should determine our vote by some kind of utilitarian calculus, supporting one form of Shit where it is less bad than the alternative (I do not), longterm tactical voting is counterproductive. Longterm the best tactic is not to vote tactically this time. Elections are not one offs, and tactical voting may leave us trapped between two awful options forever.

    Don't vote for Shit.

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    CroakerBCCroakerBC TorontoRegistered User regular
    edited November 2019
    Perdurabo wrote: »
    Bethryn wrote: »
    For some delicious schadenfreude, here's Nick Boles bringing out the knife for the Tories while laying into Corbyn at the same time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50380613
    Mr Boles - who quit the Tories over their stance on Brexit - also revealed he would vote Liberal Democrat.

    In what is basically a two party FPTP system, if Boles wants to have an impact he should vote Labour.

    Part of the problem we have at the minute is that we have two shitty parties dominating the FPTP system. This leads to a lot of people voting "tactically", which whilst it's done for good reasons, leads to long term problems. The problem with tactical voting in situations like this is that we can all get locked into a choice between Shit and Slightly Less Shit, and both parties rely on this. If people actually voted for what they wanted, there's a chance one of the Not at all Shitty parties could win. Even if we think that we should determine our vote by some kind of utilitarian calculus, supporting one form of Shit where it is less bad than the alternative (I do not), longterm tactical voting is counterproductive. Longterm the best tactic is not to vote tactically this time. Elections are not one offs, and tactical voting may leave us trapped between two awful options forever.

    Don't vote for Shit.

    It's not like you're spoilt for choice.
    Lets see (with apologies for the sweeping caricatures in advance):
    "Actively racist Shit"
    "Sometimes racist, sometimes facist Shit"
    "Lying Shit"
    "Anti Semitic Shit"
    "Single Issue Shit"

    Feel free to decide which is which.

    We live in the system we live in. If we want to change the system, that's great (and I will be sad forever that the AV referendum failed.
    But if your options are "Vote for Less Shit, or you're going to get Shit (upon)", then yeah, vote tactically.

    What else can you do? Well, everyone can vote how they feel. The system will reward this behaviour with a Conservative majority for the forseeable future, so...yay?

    IMO, people need to be goal driven to achieve their ideoogical goals. If you can't convince everyone to vote for a socialist utopia, you can at least try and make sure you don't get a post-dystopian V-For-Vendetta style future instead.

    CroakerBC on
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    evilthecatevilthecat Registered User regular
    The tactical voting in this instance is also fuelled by the brexit issue being mixed in with every other conceivable political vector in the form of a general election.
    If you want a shot at staying in the EU then the Tories have to lose.

    tip.. tip.. TALLY.. HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
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    SharpyVIISharpyVII Registered User regular
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/12/labour-reveals-large-scale-cyber-attack-on-digital-platforms
    The Labour party has experienced a “sophisticated and large-scale cyber-attack” on its digital systems from an unknown source, it has said, adding that it is confident its security systems ensured there was no data breach.

    How where have we seen something like this before?

    But of a coincidence that the Tories are suppressing a report in to Russian interference and have numerous Russian donors.

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    klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    PM to chair Cobra meeting over floods
    Prime Minister Boris Johnson will host a Cobra meeting later.

    Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn previously urged the PM to "take personal charge" of the situation and convene the emergency response committee.

    In a letter, Mr Corbyn said: "If this had happened in Surrey, not Yorkshire or the East Midlands, it seems far more likely that a national emergency would have been declared."

    The decision to hold a meeting about the response to flooding had been taken prior to the letter from Mr Corbyn, according to Number 10.
    I wonder how this will affect things. Boris doing exactly what Jeremy has suggested he do but then going "I was already going to do that before you said anything." doesn't really inspire.

    This feels like what happened in the last election; it wasn't so much Labour doing anything particularly well, but more Theresa's campaign being incredibly poor.
    And she still managed to scrape a win at the low low cost of an open bribe to the DUP (how much of that never materialised, by the way?)

    I can see it happening here, too; the Tories win the most, but less than current predictions. No majority, so an alliance with Farage to save the day. Meanwhile, Corbyn will crow about Labours better than expected loss and ignore any suggestions that he step down.

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    I don't think Farage is on course to win any seats, certainly not enough to play kingmaker in a hung Parliament. Unless Johnson stands down Tory candidates, which I doubt he'll do.

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    Also so far Johnson hasn't been out there much doing campaign events and interviews. He'll pop up in a school of a factory, make some funny faces and then piss off again. It feels like the Tories are running campaign with less leeway for Johnson to visibly screw up.

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    discriderdiscrider Registered User regular
    So.. a DDoS attack then?
    I imagine random conservative internet denizens would sign up to target Labour services with fake traffic.

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    TaramoorTaramoor Storyteller Registered User regular
    “Boris Johnson to head Cobra” is quite a fun headline.

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    CroakerBCCroakerBC TorontoRegistered User regular
    discrider wrote: »
    So.. a DDoS attack then?
    I imagine random conservative internet denizens would sign up to target Labour services with fake traffic.

    Yeah, a bit of quick reading around suggests a DDOS. Labour's cyber-minions appear to have worked around it.
    Doesn't sound like it was a serious (or surgical) attack, which would be far more interesting.
    The headlines will hyperventilate for a bit though.

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod


    News org. It doesn't sound like something a state actor like Russia would do unless they're intentionally half-arsing things these days.

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    klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    I don't think Farage is on course to win any seats, certainly not enough to play kingmaker in a hung Parliament. Unless Johnson stands down Tory candidates, which I doubt he'll do.

    I really really hope so, but I'm going with anticipating the worst because all the recent votes have gone that way. At least I'll have the comfort of being right.

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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    Mc zanyMc zany Registered User regular
    klemming wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »
    I don't think Farage is on course to win any seats, certainly not enough to play kingmaker in a hung Parliament. Unless Johnson stands down Tory candidates, which I doubt he'll do.

    I really really hope so, but I'm going with anticipating the worst because all the recent votes have gone that way. At least I'll have the comfort of being right.

    The brexit party did come second in that by-electon a few months ago but that was at the height of the "no brexit" scare and I doubt their performance will improve now that brexit is a lesser factor (as the chance of it non happening is much smaller now sadly).

    It makes no sense for the tories to stand down in Labour seats as they are targeting the same "labour leavers" as the brexit party are and the tories have a higher chance of winning.

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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »


    News org. It doesn't sound like something a state actor like Russia would do unless they're intentionally half-arsing things these days.

    Apparently the attacks originated in Russia and Brazil. The lines between directly orchestrated state sponsored attacks and indirectly pushed are pretty blurry. Russia has many "not officially on the payroll" nationalist cybergroups it can mobilise to pull of shit like this on their behalf. Or just of course groups that drink the Kremlin kool aid and act of their own accord against who they perceive to be state enemies.

    Real question is why Putin doesn't want Corbyn in charge? He seems like the textbook definition of a useful idiot and is willing to be a Putin apologist to boot.

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    klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    I have faith that Boris could be just as useful an idiot to Putin. He's had a lot of practice handling Trump, so he knows how to handle leaders who are mostly ego by volume.

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    Labour are offering a second referendum is they get in. Putin wants the UK out of the EU, and Johnson gives him the best chance of that.

    I'm not saying this is a Putin ploy, but one can see why Corbyn, though sympathetic to Putin and Russian interests, wouldn't actually be the best option for Russia right now.

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    ChanusChanus Harbinger of the Spicy Rooster Apocalypse The Flames of a Thousand Collapsed StarsRegistered User regular
    Casual wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »


    News org. It doesn't sound like something a state actor like Russia would do unless they're intentionally half-arsing things these days.

    Apparently the attacks originated in Russia and Brazil. The lines between directly orchestrated state sponsored attacks and indirectly pushed are pretty blurry. Russia has many "not officially on the payroll" nationalist cybergroups it can mobilise to pull of shit like this on their behalf. Or just of course groups that drink the Kremlin kool aid and act of their own accord against who they perceive to be state enemies.

    Real question is why Putin doesn't want Corbyn in charge? He seems like the textbook definition of a useful idiot and is willing to be a Putin apologist to boot.

    Russia doesn’t necessarily want to control western states, they want to destabilize western states. Whatever causes the most chaos is their aim.

    Allegedly a voice of reason.
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    Mild ConfusionMild Confusion Smash All Things Registered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    “Boris Johnson to head Cobra” is quite a fun headline.

    So if he’s heading it, would that make Boris the Cobra Commander?

    steam_sig.png

    Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
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    surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    edited November 2019


    journalist writer fellow bit data is survation

    my suggestion 40% was a ceiling for cons and 24-25 a floor for labour holding up well so far

    Survation consistently more favourable to lab in their assumptions some others less so - wait for more recent yougov too

    surrealitycheck on
    obF2Wuw.png
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    monikermoniker Registered User regular
    Taramoor wrote: »
    “Boris Johnson to head Cobra” is quite a fun headline.

    So if he’s heading it, would that make Boris the Cobra Commander?

    COBRA is just a conference room, not something to be commanded really. However, since this is an emergency meeting in response to the floods, there is a chance it was previously scheduled. And if so Johnson commandeered COBRA.

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    V1mV1m Registered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    I shows how much of a cult his party is as well. He says 317 candidates don't stand and they all bow, or at least they have no recourse to complain about it. No one saying hang on I gave you money so I could stand as a candidate how can you simply withdraw this?

    And the answer is, of course, that it isn't and never was a political party with members and an elected leader they could actually influence, just a cult for arseholes, racists and the gullible.

    That seems like an extremely nuanced distinction to draw.

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    It is not a political party and has no members.

    Correction, it has three members and thousands of 'registered supporters' who give them money but have no say in policy or decisions.

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    CroakerBCCroakerBC TorontoRegistered User regular
    Bogart wrote: »
    It is not a political party and has no members.

    Correction, it has three members and thousands of 'registered supporters' who give them money but have no say in policy or decisions.

    I am mildly interested in how a political party is constituted. Mostly because I can't figure out how BXP is running in this election, but not as a political party.

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    BogartBogart Streetwise Hercules Registered User, Moderator mod
    I think the base level requirement is like two guys or something.

    I mean technically the Brexit Party is a political party I guess, but it's two guys telling gullible idiots to give them money and power with no means of removing them from the head of said 'party'.

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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
    It's technically just a private company, isn't it?

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    PowerpuppiesPowerpuppies drinking coffee in the mountain cabinRegistered User regular
    what makes a normal political party though - you need a leader, a set of rules as to how that leader is deposed by the members, a distinction between voters and members, a manifesto, what?

    sig.gif
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    surrealitychecksurrealitycheck lonely, but not unloved dreaming of faulty keys and latchesRegistered User regular
    CroakerBC wrote: »
    Bogart wrote: »
    It is not a political party and has no members.

    Correction, it has three members and thousands of 'registered supporters' who give them money but have no say in policy or decisions.

    I am mildly interested in how a political party is constituted. Mostly because I can't figure out how BXP is running in this election, but not as a political party.

    it is a political party

    uk has no real rules about what a political party is other than u need to be on the register as one and that means u cant violate certain rules or have to declare certain things - but there are tonnes of joke parties eg monster raving loony party - and its basically just a question of having some kind of organisation / legal entity with a name that can get registered, and even then that is only since like 1998 - they used to just be private organisations of their own kind with no real control

    obF2Wuw.png
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    EinzelEinzel Registered User regular
    I saw the (previously mentioned in this thread) North Carolina license "BREXIT" the other night. I still don't understand it. Also, shockingly, it wasn't on a British car.

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    CasualCasual Wiggle Wiggle Wiggle Flap Flap Flap Registered User regular
    Einzel wrote: »
    I saw the (previously mentioned in this thread) North Carolina license "BREXIT" the other night. I still don't understand it. Also, shockingly, it wasn't on a British car.

    Brexit has become a right wing totem world wide. The nationalistic xenophobes are actually very internationally coordinated.

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    JazzJazz Registered User regular
    Casual wrote: »
    Einzel wrote: »
    I saw the (previously mentioned in this thread) North Carolina license "BREXIT" the other night. I still don't understand it. Also, shockingly, it wasn't on a British car.

    Brexit has become a right wing totem world wide. The nationalistic xenophobes are actually very internationally coordinated.

    The irony is as palpable as the Flat Earth society having members all over the globe.

    Except less funny.

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    TastyfishTastyfish Registered User regular
    edited November 2019
    Tim Walker, the Lib Dem candidate for Canterbury is stepping down to make way for Labour because of the Tory/Brexit non-compete agreement.

    Surely no one can argue that FPtP is the simpler system after this election's game-y nonsense. I think Thursday is the deadline for getting on (or off) the ballot papers, so we'll find out how many of the Brexit party members registered as Independent Brexiteers.

    Tastyfish on
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