From the Guardian blog: Curtice's own analysis of why Corbyn isn't likely to get a majority.
He said the issues for Labour included Corbyn’s personal unpopularity with voters (although he also noted that Johnson was “the most unpopular new prime minister in polling history”), and the fact that they had lost both remain and leave votes through a middle-ground approach to Brexit.
It's utterly infuriating that the Remain side can't get their fucking act together Jesus Christ.
The problem is that, ultimately, the labour leadership are not on the remain side and never have been. Some of the party are, sure, but the overall approach to remain voters has been to ignore them while demanding they vote labour.
From the Guardian blog: Curtice's own analysis of why Corbyn isn't likely to get a majority.
He said the issues for Labour included Corbyn’s personal unpopularity with voters (although he also noted that Johnson was “the most unpopular new prime minister in polling history”), and the fact that they had lost both remain and leave votes through a middle-ground approach to Brexit.
Hence why the Lib Dems aren't doing it. They know they're not going to win, they're running on a "right side of history" platform. This is some 4d chess shit so in a decades time they can say "look we were the only party to actively oppose Brexit".
It is political suicide to tell people that voting to leave the EU was a massive mistake and they've voted to fuck themselves economically.
I think you can, but you can't if you plainly don't believe they have. A strong, credible Labour leader who cogently and enthusiastically argued for staying in the EU might have been the way to get a second referendum.
We'll never know, and I could be entirely wrong, but I'm never going to stop resenting the absolute pig's arsehole Labour made of their Brexit position, and how happily they got right behind the calls to end free movement.
Politics Home editor, quoting the Beeb's stats and polling boffin. Absolute galaxy brain move not to try some sort of Remain alliance with the other parties, guys.
Not Corbyn's fault that Lib Dems hate social democrats more than they hate Hard Brexit.
I think we might have stumbled upon labour's campaign slogan.
to her credit diane abbott has been publically saying today labour should back free movement
It's a day after Len McClusky said they shouldn't, so well done again on presenting a clear line for people to follow, Labour.
I imagine the party is pretty split on the issue, 30%/70% in favour, like the are with Leave/Remain.
If only they had someone at the head of the party to argue the case for one or the other and not try to constantly please everyone at once by being deliberately vague!
Politics Home editor, quoting the Beeb's stats and polling boffin. Absolute galaxy brain move not to try some sort of Remain alliance with the other parties, guys.
Not Corbyn's fault that Lib Dems hate social democrats more than they hate Hard Brexit.
Labour apparently has rules against electoral alliances but it was difficult to find where those rules are written down
Unite to Remain confirmed that they approached Labour early on in these discussions, but were “very heavily rebuffed” by senior figures on the front bench. This is partly because of the Labour Party’s own rules, which preclude pacts.
BethrynUnhappiness is MandatoryRegistered Userregular
Corbyn: I don't want another independence referendum
Earlier, before his interview with the BBC, Mr Corbyn told a heckler on a campaign visit to Scotland he didn't "want another independence referendum”.
As the Labour leader addressed a crowd in the West Lothian town of Linlithgow, the woman stopped to ask about reports he would work with SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon and help her secure the so-called indyref2.
Mr Corbyn attempted to reassure the heckler by saying he would not want another vote - contradicting a previous suggestion that he would consider one.
From the Beeb live feed.
I see we've got all our ducks in a row on election policy once again, Jeremy.
From the Guardian blog: Curtice's own analysis of why Corbyn isn't likely to get a majority.
He said the issues for Labour included Corbyn’s personal unpopularity with voters (although he also noted that Johnson was “the most unpopular new prime minister in polling history”), and the fact that they had lost both remain and leave votes through a middle-ground approach to Brexit.
Hence why the Lib Dems aren't doing it. They know they're not going to win, they're running on a "right side of history" platform. This is some 4d chess shit so in a decades time they can say "look we were the only party to actively oppose Brexit".
It is political suicide to tell people that voting to leave the EU was a massive mistake and they've voted to fuck themselves economically.
You can't tell the voting public they fucked up.
Isn't that functionally what you do when you're in the Opposition? Tell people they fucked up by putting bad people in charge?
Yes, but the best Labour has to offer is "vote for us, and we'll do the bad and stupid thing in a way that's totally not bad and stupid but awesome, really!"
Good lord if Lord Buckethead got more votes than Boris ..
then again, if the Tories win and Boris isn't elected as an MP he can still be made PM, right?
Good lord if Lord Buckethead got more votes than Boris ..
then again, if the Tories win and Boris isn't elected as an MP he can still be made PM, right?
Yes. There are no constitutional requirements to be PM.
Buuut its a good excuse to bin him and install a different PM. And there are a few dolts in the tory party stupid enough* to want the reigns right now.
*alternately: smart enough to know this is their only chance
Good lord if Lord Buckethead got more votes than Boris ..
then again, if the Tories win and Boris isn't elected as an MP he can still be made PM, right?
Yes. There are no constitutional requirements to be PM.
Buuut its a good excuse to bin him and install a different PM. And there are a few dolts in the tory party stupid enough* to want the reigns right now.
*alternately: smart enough to know this is their only chance
if that happens I expect we'll get to watch Gove and JRM have the noodliest slap fight in the history of parliament.
one of those farce fights where both combatants injure themselves and/or the scenery while attempting to do violence to their opponent, ending in a double (self) knockout.
one of those farce fights where both combatants injure themselves and/or the scenery while attempting to do violence to their opponent, ending in a double (self) knockout.
Corbyn: I don't want another independence referendum
Earlier, before his interview with the BBC, Mr Corbyn told a heckler on a campaign visit to Scotland he didn't "want another independence referendum”.
As the Labour leader addressed a crowd in the West Lothian town of Linlithgow, the woman stopped to ask about reports he would work with SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon and help her secure the so-called indyref2.
Mr Corbyn attempted to reassure the heckler by saying he would not want another vote - contradicting a previous suggestion that he would consider one.
From the Beeb live feed.
I see we've got all our ducks in a row on election policy once again, Jeremy.
Corbyn is clearly only saying this because he needs the voters in Scotland to gain majority support for Brexit in a second referendum. Pretty bad look.
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H3KnucklesBut we decide which is rightand which is an illusion.Registered Userregular
I thought it might be neat to throw that into a spreadsheet with conditional formatting to highlight trends, although it was probably just a waste of my time. Reds are above average, blues are below average, whites are close to the mean.
Labour now promising free fibre broadband to everyone. Saying by 2030, paid for by taxing tech giants (that'll go down well with them in this day and age, I'm sure). Part-nationalising BT (not a surprise). And free as in actually no monthly sub cost.
SnicketysnickThe Greatest Hype Man inWesterosRegistered Userregular
edited November 2019
I'll believe that one when I see it, just like Bojo's "full fibre" by 2025 promise
of course if in 5 years time I've got something that isn't 3mbs downhill with a tailwind and a prayer behind it then I'll eat a very small edible hat but for now it's rough chuckles from me.
I mean it's nice and certainly represents a good step forwards for inclusivity in the digital economy, but I dunno if this is a paradigm changer in terms of vote capture.
SnicketysnickThe Greatest Hype Man inWesterosRegistered Userregular
edited November 2019
I absolutely believe McDonnell when he says people are always telling him about broadband when he goes round places though. I know it's the number one actual day to day issue for me, but I am in the relatively unique position of being in a small village in central Devon that has had its broadband rollout, except it completely missed us on three sides and I can literally see the end of fibre optic coverage from my house. It stops about 500m away from the exchange box as the crow flies and it's infuriating that the response was "lol guess you're fucked then" Oh you can get this wireless thing except you can't because there's these things called "trees".
for calibrating your interpretations of different polls, by the polling observatory
Am I reading this wrong or are those all very small biases?
relatively small, but if you think about two polls coming out back to back eg survation vs yougov that means you end up with one reporting 25% lab and the other 29% on average
which is a big deal, especially when compared to other parties!
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JuliusCaptain of Serenityon my shipRegistered Userregular
I'll believe that one when I see it, just like Bojo's "full fibre" by 2025 promise
of course if in 5 years time I've got something that isn't 3mbs downhill with a tailwind and a prayer behind it then I'll eat a very small edible hat but for now it's rough chuckles from me.
Well they plan to spend 20 billion pounds instead of 5 and nationalize part of BT to achieve it, so it's at least more realistic than what Johnson promised.
I don't know enough about the situation to say whether it is actually realistic though. I didn't know that getting full FTTP coverage was such a major political issue to be honest.
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For a competent campaign, yes
The problem is that, ultimately, the labour leadership are not on the remain side and never have been. Some of the party are, sure, but the overall approach to remain voters has been to ignore them while demanding they vote labour.
Hence why the Lib Dems aren't doing it. They know they're not going to win, they're running on a "right side of history" platform. This is some 4d chess shit so in a decades time they can say "look we were the only party to actively oppose Brexit".
It is political suicide to tell people that voting to leave the EU was a massive mistake and they've voted to fuck themselves economically.
You can't tell the voting public they fucked up.
We'll never know, and I could be entirely wrong, but I'm never going to stop resenting the absolute pig's arsehole Labour made of their Brexit position, and how happily they got right behind the calls to end free movement.
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It's a day after Len McClusky said they shouldn't, so well done again on presenting a clear line for people to follow, Labour.
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I imagine the party is pretty split on the issue, 30%/70% in favour, like the are with Leave/Remain.
I think we might have stumbled upon labour's campaign slogan.
If only they had someone at the head of the party to argue the case for one or the other and not try to constantly please everyone at once by being deliberately vague!
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Labour apparently has rules against electoral alliances but it was difficult to find where those rules are written down
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/11/guide-remain-pact-between-liberal-democrats-plaid-cymru-and-greens
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I see we've got all our ducks in a row on election policy once again, Jeremy.
I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.
Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
Isn't that functionally what you do when you're in the Opposition? Tell people they fucked up by putting bad people in charge?
QEDMF xbl: PantsB G+
Who are these clowns? And Bobby Smith?
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Binface is the original Buckethead.
I made a game, it has penguins in it. It's pay what you like on Gumroad.
Currently Ebaying Nothing at all but I might do in the future.
then again, if the Tories win and Boris isn't elected as an MP he can still be made PM, right?
In fairness McClusky isn't part of the PLP. He's just a wanker people give too much time and attention to when he opens his stupid fat mouth.
From the horse's (bucket's?) mouth
Yes. There are no constitutional requirements to be PM.
Buuut its a good excuse to bin him and install a different PM. And there are a few dolts in the tory party stupid enough* to want the reigns right now.
*alternately: smart enough to know this is their only chance
if that happens I expect we'll get to watch Gove and JRM have the noodliest slap fight in the history of parliament.
*sigh* we can dream.
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Corbyn is clearly only saying this because he needs the voters in Scotland to gain majority support for Brexit in a second referendum. Pretty bad look.
@surrealitycheck This was super interesting, thanks!
I thought it might be neat to throw that into a spreadsheet with conditional formatting to highlight trends, although it was probably just a waste of my time. Reds are above average, blues are below average, whites are close to the mean.
Am I reading this wrong or are those all very small biases?
margin of error in most cases but that’s enough to completely swing things in today’s climate
i think the conclusion here would be 🤷♀️ 🤷♂️
It's a bold strategy Cotton, etc, etc.
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of course if in 5 years time I've got something that isn't 3mbs downhill with a tailwind and a prayer behind it then I'll eat a very small edible hat but for now it's rough chuckles from me.
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At least this is a more realistic timeframe and cost.
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relatively small, but if you think about two polls coming out back to back eg survation vs yougov that means you end up with one reporting 25% lab and the other 29% on average
which is a big deal, especially when compared to other parties!
Well they plan to spend 20 billion pounds instead of 5 and nationalize part of BT to achieve it, so it's at least more realistic than what Johnson promised.
I don't know enough about the situation to say whether it is actually realistic though. I didn't know that getting full FTTP coverage was such a major political issue to be honest.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/reaching-100-superfast-broadband/
Although my guess would be that Scotland probably has a larger area that the private providers aren't willing to fund