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[US Foreign Policy] Peace For Sale

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    Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    So what’s the plan now

    Iran must surely be more rapidly working towards getting a nuke, but Trump has eliminated any incentive besides avoiding war or any deterrence up to going to war

    So it’s either go to war or let Iran develop nukes, or both, right?

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    Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    edited January 2020
    Plus option 3, get paid for proliferating nukes to the rest of the ME, which was one of Flynn’s deals

    Captain Inertia on
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    TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    So...over/under Trump just pushing the button on live TV?

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    SolarSolar Registered User regular
    edited January 2020
    Iran will restart its nuke program. Already has.

    My money would be on the following;

    The US and Israel will likely launch cyber attacks to try to delay the program, with varying degrees of success

    At the stage in which Israel gets intel that Iran is about to go nuclear, they may step up to kinetic attacks. This will likely be a significant flashpoint and potentially a source of an air war between Iran and Israel, which the US will back, I think. Air strikes on Iranian military facilities will then occur.

    The question then is whether Iran capitulates in some way or attempts to close the Gulf.

    Solar on
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    TomantaTomanta Registered User regular
    Athenor wrote: »


    The White House is one of the many official channels of the US Executive Branch's communication.

    I hate the vagueness of this tweet so much. I mean, one would assume whatever remarks would be televised, but this president thinks Twitter is an acceptable and legal way to notify Congress of something, so this could also just be an alert for an incoming tweet storm.

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    ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor changed Registered User regular
    .
    TryCatcher wrote: »
    So...over/under Trump just pushing the button on live TV?

    I am hoping that he will downplay the attack as routine and ineffective, assure everyone that he would have ordered our soldiers to commit war crimes if it weren't.

    Sadly, this is what my optimism looks like these days.

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    XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    Iran will restart its nuke program. Already has.

    My money would be on the following;

    The US and Israel will likely launch cyber attacks to try to delay the program, with varying degrees of success

    At the stage in which Israel gets intel that Iran is about to go nuclear, they may step up to kinetic attacks. This will likely be a significant flashpoint and potentially a source of an air war between Iran and Israel, which the US will back, I think. Air strikes on Iranian military facilities will then occur.

    The question then is whether Iran capitulates in some way or attempts to close the Gulf.

    you can't show that off on the news

    It's going to be one of two things. 1: War (big explosions, and images for stupid rubes) or 2: "We've already won" like how we won with North Korea.

    hopefully it'll be 2

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    nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Plus option 3, get paid for proliferating nukes to the rest of the ME, which was one of Flynn’s deals

    Thats one of the fears

    once Iran has nukes SA will want them next

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    ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor changed Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    Iran will restart its nuke program. Already has.

    My money would be on the following;

    The US and Israel will likely launch cyber attacks to try to delay the program, with varying degrees of success

    At the stage in which Israel gets intel that Iran is about to go nuclear, they may step up to kinetic attacks. This will likely be a significant flashpoint and potentially a source of an air war between Iran and Israel, which the US will back, I think. Air strikes on Iranian military facilities will then occur.

    The question then is whether Iran capitulates in some way or attempts to close the Gulf.

    If Iran's nuclear program is still susceptible to cyber attack 10 years after stuxnet, then they definitely have no business splitting atoms.

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    Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    Is Trump stupid enough to-

    Ok yes he is but

    You can’t get the photo op with Iran after we red wedding’d them

    Iran will most likely not agree to it, or the Secret Service wouldn’t let Trump go to it

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    XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    Is Trump stupid enough to-

    Ok yes he is but

    You can’t get the photo op with Iran after we red wedding’d them

    Iran will most likely not agree to it, or the Secret Service wouldn’t let Trump go to it

    oh he wouldn't go for a photo op, just declare victory

    victory from or for what? doesn't matter. He just wants to say he won like a big boy. I'm going to guess we will be instigating an all out bombing campaign because he still has to distract from his impeachment.

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    klemmingklemming Registered User regular
    He's going to say their 'retaliation' was pathetic, they didn't even kill anyone, haha look at how bad they are at killing people, we're way better at it. Did you see how many other people we killed when we killed their general guy? We didn't even want them dead, they were just nearby and we didn't care. Iran doesn't have the moral balls to kill a bunch of people as collateral damage.

    Then he'll end the speech.

    Nobody remembers the singer. The song remains.
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    EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    Trump apparently isn't leaving the residential wing except for media events or if he absolutely has to, and this was before a bounty got placed on his head.

    He isn't going to do a photo op in the middle east.

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    SolarSolar Registered User regular
    edited January 2020
    Xaquin wrote: »
    Solar wrote: »
    Iran will restart its nuke program. Already has.

    My money would be on the following;

    The US and Israel will likely launch cyber attacks to try to delay the program, with varying degrees of success

    At the stage in which Israel gets intel that Iran is about to go nuclear, they may step up to kinetic attacks. This will likely be a significant flashpoint and potentially a source of an air war between Iran and Israel, which the US will back, I think. Air strikes on Iranian military facilities will then occur.

    The question then is whether Iran capitulates in some way or attempts to close the Gulf.

    you can't show that off on the news

    It's going to be one of two things. 1: War (big explosions, and images for stupid rubes) or 2: "We've already won" like how we won with North Korea.

    hopefully it'll be 2

    You can cos elements of the Iranian government will scream to high heaven about it, due to the domestic benefits of doing so

    Solar on
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    Metzger MeisterMetzger Meister It Gets Worse before it gets any better.Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    Iran will restart its nuke program. Already has.

    My money would be on the following;

    The US and Israel will likely launch cyber attacks to try to delay the program, with varying degrees of success

    At the stage in which Israel gets intel that Iran is about to go nuclear, they may step up to kinetic attacks. This will likely be a significant flashpoint and potentially a source of an air war between Iran and Israel, which the US will back, I think. Air strikes on Iranian military facilities will then occur.

    The question then is whether Iran capitulates in some way or attempts to close the Gulf.

    If Iran's nuclear program is still susceptible to cyber attack 10 years after stuxnet, then they definitely have no business splitting atoms.

    I mean, Israel has also been assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists for years, often via motorcycle drive-by and things like that, so.

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    XaquinXaquin Right behind you!Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    Solar wrote: »
    Iran will restart its nuke program. Already has.

    My money would be on the following;

    The US and Israel will likely launch cyber attacks to try to delay the program, with varying degrees of success

    At the stage in which Israel gets intel that Iran is about to go nuclear, they may step up to kinetic attacks. This will likely be a significant flashpoint and potentially a source of an air war between Iran and Israel, which the US will back, I think. Air strikes on Iranian military facilities will then occur.

    The question then is whether Iran capitulates in some way or attempts to close the Gulf.

    you can't show that off on the news

    It's going to be one of two things. 1: War (big explosions, and images for stupid rubes) or 2: "We've already won" like how we won with North Korea.

    hopefully it'll be 2

    You can cos elements of the Iranian government will scream to high heaven about it, due to the domestic benefits of doing so

    I don't think Iran would loudly tell their citizens that the US successfully slowed or stopped them from doing anything. I could be wrong.

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    DouglasDangerDouglasDanger PennsylvaniaRegistered User regular
    What does "ME" in the context of international political relations?

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    Santa ClaustrophobiaSanta Claustrophobia Ho Ho Ho Disconnecting from Xbox LIVERegistered User regular
    Tomanta wrote: »
    Athenor wrote: »


    The White House is one of the many official channels of the US Executive Branch's communication.

    I hate the vagueness of this tweet so much. I mean, one would assume whatever remarks would be televised, but this president thinks Twitter is an acceptable and legal way to notify Congress of something, so this could also just be an alert for an incoming tweet storm.

    Of he does a speech, pay attention to how hoarse he sounds. That'll be the clue to how pissed he was yesterday/today.

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    Stabbity StyleStabbity Style He/Him | Warning: Mothership Reporting Kennewick, WARegistered User regular
    What does "ME" in the context of international political relations?

    Middle East?

    Stabbity_Style.png
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    Mild ConfusionMild Confusion Smash All Things Registered User regular
    Athenor wrote: »


    The White House is one of the many official channels of the US Executive Branch's communication.

    Did baby finally get enough sleep?

    steam_sig.png

    Battlenet ID: MildC#11186 - If I'm in the game, send me an invite at anytime and I'll play.
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    Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    edited January 2020
    I used it as short hand for Middle East, but in that specific comment I was referring to that deal Flynn was cooking up with Russia to put nuclear plants in like Saudi Arabia and Iraq and maybe some others

    But if Iran gets nukes, Israel makes it official and we sell nukes to KSA, and maybe Jordan, Turkey, UAE, Qatar...

    Captain Inertia on
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    ArbitraryDescriptorArbitraryDescriptor changed Registered User regular
    Solar wrote: »
    Iran will restart its nuke program. Already has.

    My money would be on the following;

    The US and Israel will likely launch cyber attacks to try to delay the program, with varying degrees of success

    At the stage in which Israel gets intel that Iran is about to go nuclear, they may step up to kinetic attacks. This will likely be a significant flashpoint and potentially a source of an air war between Iran and Israel, which the US will back, I think. Air strikes on Iranian military facilities will then occur.

    The question then is whether Iran capitulates in some way or attempts to close the Gulf.

    If Iran's nuclear program is still susceptible to cyber attack 10 years after stuxnet, then they definitely have no business splitting atoms.

    I mean, Israel has also been assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists for years, often via motorcycle drive-by and things like that, so.

    Well, I can't really fault them for not developing a policy that requires all foreign assassins to be digitally signed and blessed by IT security before gaining access to motorcycles.

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    Metzger MeisterMetzger Meister It Gets Worse before it gets any better.Registered User regular
    What does "ME" in the context of international political relations?

    Middle East, more than likely.
    Xaquin wrote: »
    Solar wrote: »
    Xaquin wrote: »
    Solar wrote: »
    Iran will restart its nuke program. Already has.

    My money would be on the following;

    The US and Israel will likely launch cyber attacks to try to delay the program, with varying degrees of success

    At the stage in which Israel gets intel that Iran is about to go nuclear, they may step up to kinetic attacks. This will likely be a significant flashpoint and potentially a source of an air war between Iran and Israel, which the US will back, I think. Air strikes on Iranian military facilities will then occur.

    The question then is whether Iran capitulates in some way or attempts to close the Gulf.

    you can't show that off on the news

    It's going to be one of two things. 1: War (big explosions, and images for stupid rubes) or 2: "We've already won" like how we won with North Korea.

    hopefully it'll be 2

    You can cos elements of the Iranian government will scream to high heaven about it, due to the domestic benefits of doing so

    I don't think Iran would loudly tell their citizens that the US successfully slowed or stopped them from doing anything. I could be wrong.

    So, in my opinion, Iran has to walk the tightrope. On one side is being seen as terrorist aggressors escalating conflict, and on the other side is being seen as the underdog nation attempting to defend itself rightfully against imperialism and inappropriate aggression from a larger nation. Iran has been walking that rope pretty ably, but they need to keep walking that tightrope or the international community will turn on them. Ironically, they're playing into the fascism inherent to American foreign policy in the 21st century, playing into the "our enemies are both an existential threat and laughably weak" rhetoric so typical of not only fascists but American foreign policy, and they're doing it rather well.

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    Captain InertiaCaptain Inertia Registered User regular
    I dunno last night was close to best case scenario for Trump, assuming he doesn’t want an actual war

    Once it was confirmed “no casualties,” I’m thinking everyone went home and felt fine

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    No-QuarterNo-Quarter Nothing To Fear But Fear ItselfRegistered User regular
    I like to imagine Trump spent the night wracked with paranoia that he may actually have to exert himself and pay attention for once.

    I'll be curious to see how he looks at 11am.

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    HydropoloHydropolo Registered User regular
    I like to think that things like not having a statement till almost midday means people are taking the time to consider actions, not just reacting.

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    DouglasDangerDouglasDanger PennsylvaniaRegistered User regular
    ME meaning middle East makes a lot of sense

    That was my initial guess, but then I had the thought SA was referring to South Africa for some reason

    Sorry

    I'm not doing well, and I know that's shitty to say given my situation and location

    Having trouble doing much

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    nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    Trump apparently isn't leaving the residential wing except for media events or if he absolutely has to, and this was before a bounty got placed on his head.

    He isn't going to do a photo op in the middle east.

    Is that because he scared of something more than a 4 hour workday tho?

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    tbloxhamtbloxham Registered User regular
    No-Quarter wrote: »
    I like to imagine Trump spent the night wracked with paranoia that he may actually have to exert himself and pay attention for once.

    I'll be curious to see how he looks at 11am.

    Trump ate a half dozen McDonald's burgers and passed out in front of the TV at 1 AM. Same thing he does every night. Make no mistake. This is all a game to him. He cares about getting to play president but nothing else.

    "That is cool" - Abraham Lincoln
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    EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    If reporting can be trusted, its due to his drug additions.

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    mRahmanimRahmani DetroitRegistered User regular
    ME meaning middle East makes a lot of sense

    That was my initial guess, but then I had the thought SA was referring to South Africa for some reason

    Sorry

    I'm not doing well, and I know that's shitty to say given my situation and location

    Having trouble doing much

    Pretty sure SA stood for Saudi Arabia in this context, but the acronyms do get confusing.

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    MarathonMarathon Registered User regular
    Enc wrote: »
    If reporting can be trusted, its due to his drug additions.

    Seems like this is reporting that shouldn’t be trusted.

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    TryCatcherTryCatcher Registered User regular
    POLITICO has an analysis of why European leaders are more pissed at Trump than Iran.
    BERLIN — Reckless, illegal, unhinged.

    When it comes to finding adjectives to describe U.S. President Donald Trump’s assassination of Iranian military guru Qassem Soleimani, which prompted the Iranians to respond by launching missile attacks on bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops overnight, European officials have displayed rare unity. At least in private.

    Behind the sober public pronouncements from Brussels and national capitals about the need for “de-escalation,” officials are seething.

    Plus ça change? While Trump has been reviled by Europe’s establishment from the day he took office, his other major “outrages” — such as the decisions to pull out of the Paris climate accord and the Iranian nuclear deal or to impose tariffs on EU steel — were well-telegraphed.

    No one saw the Iranian escalation coming. Within hours of Soleimani's assassination, Europe’s shock over the Iranian general’s killing morphed into anger at Trump.
    On Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron, who tried in vain last year to bring Trump and the Iranian leadership together, spent about an hour on the phone with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Macron expressed his deep concern over the situation in the region and urged Iran “to refrain from taking any action that would aggravate rising tensions,” his office said in a statement.

    Europe’s refusal to stand by America’s side on Iran hasn’t gone unnoticed in Washington.

    "Frankly, the Europeans haven’t been as helpful as I wished that they could be," Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said over the weekend, adding that "the Brits, the French, the Germans all need to understand that what we did, what the Americans did, saved lives in Europe as well."

    So far, American efforts to convince Europeans of the bright side of Soleimani’s killing have been met with dropped jaws.

    Europe’s worry is that a wider conflict in the Middle East could trigger deep economic and political disruption on the Continent itself. As Europe learned during Syria’s civil war, its geographic proximity to the region leaves it particularly exposed to conflicts there.

    Is simple: Trump and the US can do whatever they want, but the bulk of the consequences is going to be paid by Europe. So Trump just suddenly dropping the Soleimani killing on them without any previous notice to anybody except SA and Israel pissed them, and that's after Trump scrapped the Iran deal. Being powerless to change the situation but having to pay for the broken dishes is a very unpleasant position.

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    EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    edited January 2020
    Marathon wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    If reporting can be trusted, its due to his drug additions.

    Seems like this is reporting that shouldn’t be trusted.

    The not leaving the residential wing is confirmed by multiple sources. The drug thing comes out every six months by people who knew him, and existed well before his political run, enough people with enough consistency that Its hard to totally ignore. Is that why he isn't leaving the res wing these days? Who knows.

    Enc on
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    Metzger MeisterMetzger Meister It Gets Worse before it gets any better.Registered User regular
    Marathon wrote: »
    Enc wrote: »
    If reporting can be trusted, its due to his drug additions.

    Seems like this is reporting that shouldn’t be trusted.

    I've actually seen it reported from a few different sources that it's likely he either has a severe Sudafed addiction, or uses European Sudafed to counter the effects of cocaine comedown/withdrawal, it's really not that outlandish of a claim. It's also not super on topic I guess but it sure would explain a lot.

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    The_InfidelThe_Infidel Registered User regular
    This is a situation in which we rely on Trump's inherent laziness to avoid an actual shooting war. He got to smash a brown person, feel like a tough guy in the situation room, and won't be pressured by CENTCOM or the Joint Chiefs to respond to a few ballistic missiles lobbed at a desert airfield.

    You really think he wants to be taking meetings around the clock for the next 6 months on Gulf War 3?

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    The_InfidelThe_Infidel Registered User regular
    As Europe learned during Syria’s civil war, its geographic proximity to the region leaves it particularly exposed to conflicts there.

    Uhh, one would hope they didn't just learn this in the last few years.

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    EncEnc A Fool with Compassion Pronouns: He, Him, HisRegistered User regular
    edited January 2020
    CNN has areal photos of the damage from the attacks. Looks like mostly runway damage well away from most buildings. One or two hits on structures.

    Enc on
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    nexuscrawlernexuscrawler Registered User regular
    This is a situation in which we rely on Trump's inherent laziness to avoid an actual shooting war. He got to smash a brown person, feel like a tough guy in the situation room, and won't be pressured by CENTCOM or the Joint Chiefs to respond to a few ballistic missiles lobbed at a desert airfield.

    You really think he wants to be taking meetings around the clock for the next 6 months on Gulf War 3?

    War is only allowed between the hours of 11-3 on weekdays

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    DouglasDangerDouglasDanger PennsylvaniaRegistered User regular
    We're actually relying on his cocaine hangover

    Because he's a bigot and a sadist and a bully, no different than the vast majority of US presidents, and he probably had some sort of coked out celebration about assassinating a person who was on their way to a peaceful negotiation

    This awful fucking clown didn't even have to push the button to do this, he had a goddamned wage slave henchman do it for him, someone who decided their need for a paycheck is worth more than the lives of their fellow humans

This discussion has been closed.